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We are so blessed. No dmg at my mom’s house and only dmg to my house was an oak tree fell into my pool cafe. Silly tree, oaks can’t swim!
Anyway, below is a pic of the dmg. Beyond that we seem okay. Power restored to my mom’s house, but it wasn’t on at home when we went to check the dmg.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
I live just south of Tampa very near Tampa Bay (the water).
I live basically a mile or so as the crow flies from this junction of I-75 at US HWY 301.
Sooo… leaving is going to be VERY tricky. IF we leave, it’ll have to be around 2am or so on Friday. We’re waiting until then to see if/where it turns.
It won’t be Sunday to wait, we’ll know Friday. If she still hasn’t started moving north by then, it’ll be awfully tough to stay unless they’ve gridlocked the roads.
Virtually all the models show a strong northerly turn, the only question is when. The high that’s over Texas now as well as the evacuating Jet Stream will hopefully pull her sooner rather than later.
That said, Miami is gonna get hit and bad.
And I’ve said before, if Miami is hit by a monster hurricane, there’s no guarantee that they rebuild it. They certainly won’t rebuild the poorer neighborhoods and it’ll be awfully hard to justify rebuilding the rich neighborhoods.
All I know is that we have a plan to shelter in place unless we have to go and we’re working on being packed for that, too.
Praying for everyone.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
IRMA’S A CAT 5!!!
For us in Florida, we need to stock up NOW.
I still think because of the high in the Atlantic that’s massive, that it’s going to push west and hit the panhandle or even Mississippi or Alabama, but now is the time to stock up. Shelves are already getting bare in South Florida, so wait even a day and there may not be much to pick from.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
Virtually every model now has it getting south of Miami and making a complete right turn and running up the east coast of FL.
I just don’t see it, but we’re gonna prepare more for it tomorrow if the models hold out.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
Welp. It sure looks like Irma wants to stay on the south side.
Unless something changes, she’ll hit Florida or slide into the Gulf…
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
Excellent, zn! LOL
Also, if you visit this site http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-300-forecast.htm
Scroll over the days (it reminds me of the old Netscape Navigator days and HTML 3.0).
That shows a forecast incorporating the Jet Stream (I mistakenly called it the gulfstream somewhere), and it also shows Irma hitting the border of North and South Carolina.
I dunno why I’m so obsessed with this and I still hold out a glimmer of hope that Irma swings north, but with the Atlantic high seemingly growing stronger and the forecast for the Jet Stream swinging south and then heading north very fast, I dunno if there will be enough to steer Irma northward at all. I keep looking at it after the Jet stream moves out in day 8 and 9 wondering what beyond surface winds is there to steer the storm north at all.
We’ll see. I’ll be stocking up probably tomorrow if the models don’t show a reason for Irma to head north smartly.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
I thought and said there was a good chance that Irma would take the southerly track and…unfortunately it is.
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic will likely be hit but on the windward side, so look for wind damage, but less rain than if Irma went to their south and they got hit on the leeward side. (If you divide a hurricane in half based on the direction it’s traveling, the windward side is the right side and the leeward side is the left side. Flip that in the Southern Hemisphere. The windward side has most of the water and the leeward side returns at higher speed due to less moisture. Over water, hurricanes tend to look pretty symmetrical, but once over land, they sometimes look like a Nike swoosh.)
The Bahamas are looking to take a direct hit.
Beyond that, who knows?
I mean, it could stay south, hit Puerto Rico, Dom Rep/Haiti and even Cuba before getting to the Gulf, but that’s unlikely unless the Gulfstream swings south and strong.
It’s much more likely to stay on this southerly swing and depending on how strong the High is in the Atlantic, do-si-do around it and head north.
I really think there’s a very good chance that it hits the US between Florida and North Carolina.
My very amateur meteorologist instincts tell me that it will get close to Florida, but hit the Carolinas.
Lastly, don’t be lulled by the 115mph sustained winds. It’s in a dry patch of air and will have smaller spin-ups and slow downs as it exits the dry air and has interactions with land, but the water around the Bahamas is very warm and very wet, so expect a pretty substantial spin-up between Thursday and Friday. I expect we’ll see models on Monday or Tuesday that show speeds at landfall to be in the 135-140mph range.
If there’s one good thing about Irma is that she’s hell bent for election. She’s moving at 14mph which is pretty damn fast for a hurricane. Irma won’t do the kind of water damage that Harvey did, but she’s gonna pack a punch.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
Irma tracked a bit south, lending credence to models that forecast the Atlantic high would be strong enough to push the storm on more southerly track.
While it still doesn’t look like there’s much probability of Irma entering the Gulf of Mexico, landfall with the US, between Florida and North Carolina are looking more and more likely with each model with North Carolina seeming to be the likeliest landfall. That said, if the Atlantic high remains a strong influence heading into Sunday and Monday, then Irma may be headed for Jacksonville.
No matter what happened, this bears watching.
If anyone doesn’t have flood insurance, as those in Houston are about to find out, homeowners insurance not only won’t cover you, but your mortgage holder is still gonna expect to get those payments. Actually, they’ll probably foreclose right away because there’s no improved property to secure the loan and if they can get the losses on the books prior to Oct 1, they can have an extra year to offset income and amortize the losses against future revenues.
Flood insurance is a way of life in Florida, but there are many, many places that face hurricanes where people don’t have it (only 15% had flood insurance in Harris County where Houston is).
I dunno why, but I just have a bad feeling about Irma. I sure hope I’m wrong.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
