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  • in reply to: libs and socialists talking to each other #123736
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Interesting video from Hakim.

    Would like to hear your take on that, WV.

    My own: I start out vehemently anticapitalist. I think that has to be the left’s end goal — to get rid of capitalism entirely. No remnants. All of it. Replace it with full-on economic democracy, democratize the workplace, and do a 180 with regard to the purpose of the economy itself. It never, ever should have been to make a tiny few rich. It should always have been for the purpose of fulfilling our needs, with no one left out. Ever. Anywhere. At any time. And, as Martin Hagglund writes in This Life, we’d also solve problems/crises, together, work toward the common good, and generate as much free time as possible.

    (The last one is where the Soviet Union really screwed up. They became every bit the task-masters as the capitalist West, when it came to focusing on endless production, etc. If they had paid attention to Marx’s goal of radically reducing the work day . . . and, of course, democratized, decentralized and broken up all concentrations of power . . . they never would have failed.)

    And I lean anarchist. Love what I’ve read by Kropotkin and others in that “camp.” However, I think the left actually need to form coalitions, if we’re to get anything done. In fact, I think we should even go so far as form coalitions with center-left Dems, as we pull them toward our own philosophies, policies, etc.

    I’m not good with the nitty gritty stuff on how to do the above. But I think we can find “common ground” enough to work together, and that’s a must, IMO.

    in reply to: If Trump wins #123730
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    I’m guessing everyone has seen the videos by now, of the Texas yahoos surrounding a lone Biden campaign bus on the highway, knocking cars out of the way, and slowing it down to 20 miles an hour. Trump lied about their intent at his rally, praised them, and now is denouncing the FBI for looking into it.

    Trump defends Texas drivers who surrounded Biden bus, while the president’s supporters block traffic in New York and New Jersey.

    —————–

    Yeah, its mostly in the red-states. Surreal.

    Looks like there’s gonna be violence if Biden wins, for sure.

    w
    v

    Hope you and your family stay safe and careful. Best wishes for the entire board.

    in reply to: If Trump wins #123732
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Sorry for all of these posts. But thought this was important.

    Just saw on CNN that the Republican-controlled legislature in Pennsylvania is the reason why they can’t even start counting votes until Election Morning. They put those rules in place.

    It’s a very well-coordinated GOP plan, nation-wide, to suppress the vote to favor the GOP. They’re attacking the Dem votes from all angles, using every lever of power they can muster.

    in reply to: If Trump wins #123728
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Another angle, plus video, on the incident in Texas. This is on Trump. He’s encouraged this, praises it when it happens, and bitches at any attempt to hold these people accountable.

    Trump cheers supporters who swarmed a Biden bus in Texas: ‘These patriots did nothing wrong’

    ____
    ____

    Getting back to Waterfield’s original point: Even though I don’t see Trump having any kind of voting majority, I do think there are far too many Americans who revel in cruelty. Of course, this may have always been the case. But because we have so many forms of communication these days, especially the Internet, we see them, and they see each other, gather, organize and that cruelty is weaponized.

    Throw in the absolutely insane proliferation of guns in America, and the mass victories by the gun lobby to shut down common sense restraints, and this country has never had so many citizens openly pursuing that cruelty.

    In Greg Grandin’s must-read The End of the Myth, he talks about safety/release valves in the past, with the most important being the idea of an “endless frontier.” When Americans believe they have new places to conquer (and exploit, and dominate, and control), they tend not to turn against one another as much. Those endless frontiers are gone.

    I doubt the largely illiterate Trump has thought about this, but he, with the help of neo-fascists like Bannon, tapped into this indirectly. They weaponized fear of the Other outside and inside our borders, while fetishizing the Wall. As in, subconsciously, at least, drilling down on the idea that the frontier is gone, now it’s time to turn against one another and those people on the other side of “the Wall.”

    The fall of the Roman Empire is going to get nastier and nastier with each coming day.

    • This reply was modified 4 years ago by Avatar photoBilly_T.
    in reply to: WV, how’s your political anthropology study going? #123723
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Btw, Twitter blocked my account because i responded to a person who wrote “Lawns should be illegal.” I tweeted back “Kill your Lawn” and i added a link about lawns.

    Twitter blocked my account for “encouraging suicide”.

    w
    v

    As the young kids used to say, OMG!!

    I have a small lawn, and I feel guilty for mowing it. Bad for the environment. I looked seriously into getting goats to manage it. Not kidding. They have some services for that around here, and they’re supposed to do a great job. But it’s really, really expensive, and I can’t afford to go that route.

    I did try to shrink it with sections of soil filling and self-sustaining greenery, but there’s still too much grass. If you have any suggestions, please let me know.

    in reply to: If Trump wins #123720
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    I’m guessing everyone has seen the videos by now, of the Texas yahoos surrounding a lone Biden campaign bus on the highway, knocking cars out of the way, and slowing it down to 20 miles an hour. Trump lied about their intent at his rally, praised them, and now is denouncing the FBI for looking into it.

    Trump defends Texas drivers who surrounded Biden bus, while the president’s supporters block traffic in New York and New Jersey.

    in reply to: If Trump wins #123719
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Also: While I’d much prefer changing our system to democratic sortition, rotating reps locally, regionally, and nationally via lottery, instead of elections, as a kind of Civic Peace Corp for all . . . We have got to fix the system we have until we evolve.

    It’s insane that most states can’t even start to count votes until Election Day. That’s just nutz. We should have even earlier open voting, and votes should be tabulated as the come in. I also think we need to work on smartphone and computer voting as an option. Official apps. Unbreakable encryption. VPN and unique identifier come with the app. Software to make sure no duplicate numbers are tallied, etc.

    If the youngins could vote from their phones? Sheeesh. We’d likely see a much needed “revolution” in our politics.

    in reply to: If Trump wins #123718
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Nah. It will be because FoxNews and the Evangelicals and the Corporations and Team-Trump did a more effective job than Team-Dem. And because of a startling amount of Cheating.

    w
    v

    Yeah, I missed the first part. Good point.

    in reply to: If Trump wins #123717
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    IMO, that’s not why he may “win.” He simply doesn’t have the votes. Which is why he and the GOP have worked so hard to steal the election, primarily via voter suppression, direct intimidation, armed “militias” at polling places, the corruption of the Postal Service, and an endless parade of lawsuits to shut down vote counting.

    The plan regarding those last two items is beyond clear. Trump and the GOP purposely slowed down the mail on the front end, so they could claim, later, that no vote counted after the 3rd is legit. Trump has said, publicly, that it’s “fraud” to do what we’ve always done in our elections, and what state laws force us to do. How many of Trump’s supporters know this or care? Some states can’t even start counting votes until Election Day, and Trump and the GOP are trying to make the case that if they can’t finish the count — and most states can’t — the uncounted votes get tossed.

    Throw in a more surgical approach, where Trump and the GOP have gone after specific batches of votes in Dem areas — into the hundreds of thousands — and it’s beyond clear they know they can’t win without cheating. They know it, or they wouldn’t be so desperately corrupting the process.

    in reply to: libs and socialists talking to each other #123680
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    I’m in the both/and camp. Until we can replace capitalism (economic apartheid) with economic democracy (socialism), we definitely need to keep adding reforms. M4A is a great example of that. And you’re right about the compassion aspect of stuff like eight hour days and so on. Do whatever we can to make life better under the current system. EVERY-thing.

    My point is really about end-goals, and the journey toward those goals, and why all of that is so important. It’s all too possible to get caught up in the fight for reforms, and lose sight of the kind of world we really want to achieve. Getting mired in the wonkiness of it all.

    Again, both/and.

    I’m definitely not in the either/or, revolution or bust camp . . . while at the same time, I’m vehemently against incrementalist, move like a glacier reformism. We have very little time to make these changes. We need to get serious now about strong, effective reforms and our end goal of a much, much better world for all humans and natural life, etc.

    in reply to: libs and socialists talking to each other #123673
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Both really good videos.

    Big loss to America, with Graeber’s passing. One of the main drivers of the Occupy movement, and a great exemplar for anarchism — the real thing, not the cartoon version. Brilliant guy, and he could communicate.

    Might be a poor analogy, but I see the difference between conservative, liberal and leftist, kinda like this, with regard to the economic system, at least:

    Cigarettes (capitalism). Liberals want to put filters on them, so the dire effects are lessened a bit.

    Conservatives want to get rid of the filters and smoke ’em straight up. Puts hair on your chest!

    Leftists say get rid of the cigarettes (capitalism), period. Why spend all this time and energy trying to figure out ways to mitigate for its effects when there’s absolutely no reason for its existence in the first place?

    Go with something that doesn’t require filters (up front) — endless attempts at reform, offsets, protections, etc. etc.

    in reply to: the new virus news & virus dark humor thread #123671
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    New Stanford study, out this past Friday:

    The Effects of Large Group Meetings on the Spread ofCOVID-19: The Case of Trump RalliesB. Douglas Bernheim, Nina BuchmannZach, Freitas-Groff, Sebasti ́an Otero*October 30, 2020

    Abstract:

    We investigate the effects of large group meetings on the spread of COVID-19 by studying the impact of eighteen Trump campaign rallies. To capture the effects of subsequent contagion within the pertinent communities, our analysis encompasses up to ten post-rally weeks for each event. Our method is based on a collection of regression models, one for each event, that capture the relationships between post-event outcomes and pre-event characteristics, including demographics and the trajectory of COVID-19 cases, in similar counties. We explore a total of 24 procedures for identifying sets of matched counties. For the vast majority of these variants, our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen events implies that they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents. Extrapolating this figure to the entire sample, we conclude that these eighteen rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19. Applying county-specific post-event death rates, we conclude that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths(not necessarily among attendees).

    in reply to: WV, how’s your political anthropology study going? #123664
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Interesting. I liked Brooks’ video, and then watched the earlier exchange between Sam Seder and Dore from 2016? I thought Seder clearly got the best of him there. Even with predictions. It almost sounded as if Dore wanted Trump to win because that would supposedly set the table for a leftist resurgence. How? Why? What’s the logic in that approach? It was always far more likely to set the table for a fascist resurgence, which is exactly what happened.

    It kind of reminds me of the idea behind “herd immunity.” Just let all kinds of people die, as we reach the critical (theoretical) point of 70% infections for the country, and then we’ll be immune, supposedly. Of course, that means mass death, and we’re still not certain it would work.

    Anyway, will add more on the above later. Hope you continue posting observations here as well.

    in reply to: WV, how’s your political anthropology study going? #123636
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Thanks for the good thoughts, WV, and the humor. Sounds like it’s been interesting as an experience, if a bit of a mixed bag.

    Please post that twitter thread on Dore. Even though I haven’t registered, I’ve noticed I can still read Twitter stuff, though I’m guessing I can’t see all the sub-threads or replies, and obviously can’t add anything to the flow. But I can get the gist of things.

    (Learned that first by clicking on the Rams twitter stuff youze guys post here)

    We leftists are an unruly bunch, aren’t we?

    Oh, and another thing I’ve (re)discovered in my recent readings. When living analysts talk about dead philosophers, especially those before the French Revolution, they tend to break down the “sides” as just liberal and conservative. Ancient Greece and Rome, Medieval times, the Enlightenment, etc. That jibes with memories of memories of readings in the past. Kind of catchall terms for the whole swath of what now would be left versus right plus degrees. I prefer the left/right range a great deal more. Far more nuance, degrees, acknowledgement of diversity and differences, etc. etc.

    in reply to: New report on Trump’s bombing of Yemen #123510
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Another media outlet on the above:

    Trump administration increased strikes and raids in Yemen, watchdog finds

    Excerpt:

    Missy Ryan
    Oct. 28, 2020 at 12:01 a.m. EDT
    Add to list

    The United States has conducted at least 190 armed actions, mostly airstrikes, in Yemen since President Trump took office in 2017, resulting in a minimum of 86 likely civilian deaths, a new study by a watchdog group has found.

    The analysis by Airwars, a Britain-based organization which uses local news, social media and civil society reports to corroborate claims of civilian harm, provides new insight into a war that has been largely shrouded in secrecy. The U.S. attacks, which Airwars said were carried out primarily by the U.S. military and included a handful of ground raids, appeared to represent the most intensive period of American counterinsurgent activity in Yemen since 2001, the study said.

    Airwars urged U.S. military authorities to investigate allegations of noncombatant deaths and disclose more information about the actions it mounts against militants in Yemen, the same way it has in the U.S.-led war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

    The failure of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), which oversees military operations in the Middle East, “adequately to identify, review and where necessary acknowledge civilian harm claims from its actions in Yemen appears to be markedly at odds with current Pentagon policies, and should be addressed as a matter of urgency,” Airwars said.

    in reply to: our reactions to the Bears game #123474
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Thanks, ZN.

    Makes sense.

    in reply to: our reactions to the Bears game #123465
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Dumb question, mostly cuz I should already know this, and also cuz I kinda think I do. And, well, cuz it’s not all that important.

    But, anyway, just to be sure:

    When the other team scores cuz of an offensive turnover, where do the stats go? The Rams’ D doesn’t get dinged for that, right?

    in reply to: Things I don’t understand #123456
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Zooming out — perhaps too far — consider this example of the massive gap between the gaslighters and the gaslit, the haves and the have nots, and the right and the left:

    Leftist philosophers, activists, political scientists, etc. etc. . . . are likely all alone in even asking such questions:

    Why is society structured in such a way that we (must) choose our life’s work in order to keep from starving, to fend off the wolves at the door, rather than deciding based on our love of this or that life’s work? Why is it legal for one human being to own all the work an entire workforce does, as if that one person did all the work? Why is it legal for that one person to make all the decisions for us, regarding the what, where, when, how and why of production, our wages, etc. etc.?

    Why should the economy be set up for the purpose of making a tiny fraction of society rich(er), rather than making sure everyone has what they need to live a good life? Why do we not, instead, organize the economy to serve us, all of us, our needs, sustainably, in harmony with the earth’s finite resources and limits? Why are we okay with being endlessly exploited by the super-rich, when we overwhelm them numerically?

    Three people now hold more wealth than the bottom half of the nation combined. Why do we allow such insanity? Why do we allow the economic mode of production that guarantees this?

    in reply to: our reactions to the Bears game #123453
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    The defense looked great. Hekker and the D get the game balls, IMO. Floyd is becoming what they hoped he’d be: great against the run and the pass.

    Goff is a bit erratic, though, showing Top-Five-level game on one play, and then journey-man stuff on another. He’s got to find a way to steady up, if the Rams want to play well into the playoffs. Throw it away if there’s nothing there. He can force it at bad moments, etc.

    Overall, it was a lot of fun to watch this one. The Rams of Monday Night are a solid playoff contender. Given how tough the remainder of the schedule is, we’re going to see if this same team shows up for the rest of the season. I think it will. Actually, I think they’ll get even better, especially when Robinson joins the DT rotation.

    in reply to: Things I don’t understand #123451
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    To me, it’s a lot like the way religious texts are viewed, and how those views are exploited — plus, the failures and successes of that exploitation. Academic scholars, with that specialty, see them one way. Amateur scholars see them another. Well-educated lay people still another. And those who are too busy to put in the time, still another.

    Politics is very similar.

    So it’s not really a “polarity” per se. It’s a matter of those who put in the time to break through the gaslighting, and those who haven’t, and all the points between. Throw in folks who are “naturally” gifted in critical thinking, which impacts all points, and you get the difference between successful exploitation and failure.

    In short, if Americans actually knew what “socialism” would mean in their own lives, for their own health and well-being, and for a sustainable planet, roughly 99% of the population would say, “Hell, yeah!!” to the real thing. It’s only because of an all-out successful assault on the truth that America isn’t the first truly “socialist” nation on earth. Ironically, if we had followed the path forged by Thomas Paine, among others, we would have started out that way after the revolution.

    in reply to: Good Book: Emancipation After Hegel, by Todd McGowan #123353
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Also, from reading Erich Fromm . . . Freud talked about contradictions in terms of our conscious and unconscious minds. This made me think about discussions involving “Why do voters make decisions against their own best interests?”

    A host of reasons for that, of course, but at the individual level, at the level of the mind, that conflict between conscious and unconscious drives/desires is huge. And then there’s our biology as well. Nature versus Nurture and so on.

    Thinking in terms of universe, society and personal contradictions . . . it’s not really all that baffling that we humans do strange, seemingly “irrational,” and oh so counterproductive things all the time.

    In general, I think “the right” has a major advantage, politically, because it doesn’t try to persuade voters via “rational” means. It uses sales and marketing methods that tap into unconscious drives and desires instead, especially fear. It factors in “the irrational,” often promotes it, in fact, whereas the left tends to avoid this. Again, in general.

    I don’t know what the answer is for us. But I think we have to figure out a way to tap into the unconscious too, without stoking fear and hatred.

    in reply to: our reactions to the 9ers game #123206
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Tough game to watch. The Niners cut through the Rams defense like melted butter. Far too easy for them, especially that opening drive. Side note, for me: felt sorry for Aaron Donald. A generational talent, without much help, especially via the Nose. A true space-eating hogmolly next to him would do wonders for his overall game, which is, of course, already otherworldly. A true run-stuffing maniac would just set things up for the entire D to click. I know it wasn’t their previous DC’s style, and probably not this one’s, either, but I think it’s pretty clear that their main weakness is getting gashed up the middle on running plays. The answer seems to me kinda obvious: They don’t have the personnel to stop the run up the gut, and I don’t see them scheming their way to a fix.

    And, of course, the O was off. Bad drops by the usually reliable Kupp, one by Woods, and Goff was off. Just too frustrating. Poor throws, drops, so-so blocking — the latter getting better in the second half, finally.

    Chicago is likely better than the Niners. The Rams are gonna have to turn this ship around, here and now.

    in reply to: 2020 Prediction: Trump vs Biden #123141
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    I agree, Billy, Trump is toast this year–People are tired of his act. But this election will still be close because there is so much support for Trump.

    One of the interesting things from the 2106 exit polls was that 45% voters said the government needs to do more, while 50% say that the gov’t does too much. I’d guess the number of people who believe the gov’t should do more will be much this higher this year in the turmoil caused by the pandemic.

    Americans are just plain dumb about the role that government could play in our lives.

    Good points, as always.

    Just speaking for myself, I want the government to do far, far less in certain areas, and far, far more in others. I want it to get out of the war business entirely, for instance; stop pumping up Wall Street, corporations, billionaires and millionaires; end its war on migrants, drugs, dissidents, etc. I’d love to see it slash the military budget, intel, zero-out ICE, radically demilitarize the police, reverse all privatization of the carceral system and decriminalize all non-violent, victimless crimes . . . As in, set those people free. Swap public service terms for jail sentences, where applicable, etc.

    To try to make a long story short . . . I’d get the government out of the war and punishment business to the extent humanly possible . . . But I’d ramp up its involvement in all “caring and helping” fields, education (free, cradle to grave, at all public institutions), health care (M4A and free clinics nationwide), scientific research, environmental protections (GND) and so on. I also think it’s time for a serious look at UBI, though, IMO, it has to be more than the amount usually proposed. It needs to be enough to actually live on.

    And, contrary to what many say, that we can’t afford this, I think we can’t afford not to. Climate Change and Mass Inequality alone are enough to say we must, and the following article makes it abundantly clear that we have the money to do all the above:

    Billionaire wealth rises to more than $10 trillion for first time ever amid pandemic: analysis Rich get richer as millions of Americans fall into poverty and 100 million plunge into “extreme poverty” globally

    in reply to: 2020 Prediction: Trump vs Biden #123129
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Also: Biden had better ratings for his townhall than Trump. And Trump’s was simulcast on three different networks (NBC, MSNBC and CNBC) to Biden’s one (ABC).

    Not sure exactly what to make of that, but I think it’s safe to say it’s probably not a great sign for Trump.

    Folks are tired of the Trump show. America wants to move on, and go with a president who is willing to remain in the background. Trump has to be center-stage, every single day, 24/7, and that’s beyond exhausting. He’s given this country PTSD.

    in reply to: 2020 Prediction: Trump vs Biden #123128
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    For others, however, this discrepancy isn’t an indictment of Trump. It’s an indictment of the exit polls.

    I haven’t studied their methodologies, histories, etc. etc. enough to really know one way or another. But I am deeply suspicious.

    Clinton was a terrible candidate, and the Dems made a huge mistake clearing the field for her. But even with all of that, I think she actually won the election, and Trump and the GOP stole it, as did Dubya. Of course, a better Dem candidate should have been able to overcome all of those shenanigans, etc.

    I think we had a discussion similar to this a while back and I was surprised to find that voter suppression was a real thing in Wisconsin. But this isn’t surprising, since republicans control a lot of the levers of power in Wisconsin or they did until the democrats won the governor back in 2018.

    The other states, I wasn’t convinced because an important part of Trump’s victory was that he turned out people who just didn’t vote in past elections. Look at the numbers in places like Pennsylvania where the voter turnout was much higher than the past.

    This voter turnout is real–this is not some grand some conspiracy. The evidence that Americans really like Trump is everywhere.

    Look at the Trump rallies. Tucker Carlson–yes, Tucker fucking Carlson–has the number 1 cable TV news show. Americans love them some Fox News.

    I also looked at the exit data for Florida that you linked and the exit data matched the election results perfectly (if my math is correct.) That was the first and only state that I looked at.

    Do you have any states where the exit polls don’t match the election results?

    Hey, Cal,

    Hope all is well.

    In the Heavy article (the third link), it shows that in four key states, Clinton won the exit polls, but lost the states, “officially.” It also shows that that her margin of victory in states she won, officially, was often higher in the exit polls than in the final counts. I noticed, also, that the margin of victory for Trump was higher in the official counts than in some of those exit polls. Exceptions, of course. But, overall, it appears that the exit polls favored Clinton more than the final results indicated.

    As for Trump’s popularity, voter turnout and Fox popularity: Roughly 105 million potential voters stayed home. It wasn’t a good turnout. The estimates vary a tad, give or take, but it was in the neighborhood of just 55% of the potential vote. Trump “won” just 26% of the electorate, to Clinton’s 28%.

    (We should have turnouts in the 80s, at least, but rarely get much above 50% since the 1960s.)

    Trump has never cracked 50% in popularity, and has been in the high 30s to low 40s throughout his time in office. He scores terribly in nearly all demos except white Christian males without post-secondary education. Low scores on trust, on handling of the pandemic, on personal character, on health care, on pretty much every possible issue. The only thing keeping him in the range he’s been in is diehard Republican support. As in, people who would support a ham sandwich if it had an R attached.

    (I think it’s safe to say that blind loyalty to either of the two major parties is a bad thing for this country.)

    Fox, Carlson and company? Yes, they top the cable wars. But they’re in the 3-5 million viewers a night range. That’s less than the network news shows on ABC, CBS and NBC, and it’s obviously not all that much as a percentage of the American population.

    IMO, Trump, qua Trump, isn’t especially popular even among Republicans (historically speaking). I remember the same kind of diehard, fanatical allegiance to Dubya, Reagan, and Nixon in the past. Oddly enough, for Palin, too. I also predict it will quickly fade if he loses, and then a new messiah will rise, etc. etc.

    The GOP is like a good cornerback. It forgets the last toasting and moves on.

    in reply to: 2020 Prediction: Trump vs Biden #123111
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Mac,

    What was your take on the exit polls from the 2016 presidential election? Greg Palast used them as part of the evidence for his view that the GOP stole the election. In those key battle-ground states, Clinton actually won, if we go by the exit polls — and most of the pre-election tracking.

    For others, however, this discrepancy isn’t an indictment of Trump. It’s an indictment of the exit polls.

    I haven’t studied their methodologies, histories, etc. etc. enough to really know one way or another. But I am deeply suspicious.

    Clinton was a terrible candidate, and the Dems made a huge mistake clearing the field for her. But even with all of that, I think she actually won the election, and Trump and the GOP stole it, as did Dubya. Of course, a better Dem candidate should have been able to overcome all of those shenanigans, etc.

    https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html

    2016 Exit Polls vs. Actual Results: Here’s What May Have Happened

    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    This is not healthy:

    September 16, 2020 Political Divides, Conspiracy Theories and Divergent News Sources Heading Into 2020 Election

    In this environment, the QAnon conspiracy theories have become another area of partisan divide. An overwhelming majority of Democrats who have heard something about QAnon (90%) say it is at least “somewhat bad” for the country, including 77% who say it is “very bad.” But 41% of Republicans who have heard something about it say QAnon is somewhat or very good for the country, modestly fewer than the 50% who think it is at least somewhat bad.

    • This reply was modified 4 years, 1 month ago by Avatar photoBilly_T.
    in reply to: 2020 Prediction: Trump vs Biden #123110
    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    I think Biden wins, but not by as much as he should, cuz Trump has corrupted the process beyond the surreal. It’s kinda like Aaron Donald getting four sacks in a game, while being held all game long. If the other team had played by the rules, he would have had twice that. But he still got four.

    We’ve actually never had this kind of coordination of so many state-run vectors/choke-points, trying to steal an election before, from either party. Trump’s using his DoJ, his State Department, his Postal Service, bribing farmers with billions in tax dollars, extorting other countries to help him invent shit on Biden . . . as well as the usual grotesque voter suppression efforts we see right now from the GOP. And they plan to at least try to run their own electors against the majorities in certain states, if they lose them. Throw in Trump’s public calls for right-wing paramilitary units to disrupt the vote, and you get what could be an actual, literal, fascist coup.

    Even with all the above, I still think Trump is toast. America is flat out exhausted by the Trump Show. They’ll vote against him in significant enough numbers to offset GOP dirty tricks.

    Biden 35
    Trump 27 (misses extra point)

    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    It’s keeping me awake at night, thinking about what might happen at the polls. Far-right “militias” are saying, outright, that they’re going to be armed and ready to draw their weapons if they think it’s warranted. If they see a mouse and call it “antifa,” I suppose. And Trump has consistently egged them on, telling them to “liberate” this or that state. The attempted kidnap and murder of Michigan’s governor is at least partially on Trump’s hands, and we learned today they were considering other Democratic governors too, like Northam in Virginia.

    First off, it’s yet one more way America is insane — that we allow anyone to open carry, anywhere, but especially at the polls. How on earth could that NOT be voter/poll-worker intimidation? How on earth could that NOT be voter suppression, discourage turnout, or staying in line?

    Guns everywhere. Violent nutcases everywhere, overwhelmingly right-wing.

    A little something I’ve noticed about MSM reporting? They tend to refrain from calling violent right-wingers “right-wingers.” No problem calling out “the left” for supposed violence. But they seem a bit leery of naming names when it’s a righty. Exceptions, of course. But, in general, they don’t.

    My guess is that “conservatives” have been all too successful at whining to the refs, and they’ve caved in. Same thing happened when Bush’s own admin came up with a report on right-wing violent extremism, which Obama’s AG later tried to release. The right, with its hair on fire, claimed “bias” and Obama withdrew said report. Huge error. And it’s a pattern.

    Grade the right on a steep curve. Cave into their whining and moaning. Hold the left to much, much higher standards. No wonder America is awash in ignorance, especially about history, and “bothsiderism.”

    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    Something else to consider, and this may be the most baffling puzzle of all:

    Unless I missed it, I don’t remember this ever happening before . . .

    Leftists dismissing criticism of a presidency on the basis of “deep state propaganda.” Dismissing this or that whistleblower, news report, oversight hearing, impeachment hearing, etc. etc. . . . as just one more brick in the wall of the “deep state.”

    It didn’t happen under Clinton, Bush or Obama. It didn’t happen during any other presidency in living memory. If anything, leftists tend(ed) to argue vehemently in the other direction. That the most egregious acts, misdeeds and wrongs of this or that administration were/are ignored, covered up, or, at best, radically undercounted.

    What is it about Trump and our times that changed this? What is it that seemed to have triggered an almost reflexive defense of Trump, every time another revelation appeared about his egregious acts, misdeeds and wrongs? And why has this come from “the left” in defense of a neo-fascist, of all people/regimes?

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