Stafford is a Ram, Goff is a Lion

zn wrote:

Defenses have successfully pressured Goff with four players — creating less favorable offensive situations downfield — but Wolford’s ability to move demanded more attention with extra rushers. Free rushers couldn’t cover the bootlegs the Rams love to use, because Wolford got into them faster and moved them away from that pressure when needed. Against the Cardinals, whose defensive game plan dared Wolford to throw in an effort to contain the Rams’ run game, McVay appreciated how his entire offense and the quarterback weren’t dependent on successfully running the ball.

I am not that impressed with this writer even though she gets all kind of praise. This paragraph is just dumb.

The Cardinals are not a real play-off caliber defense with talented pass rushers, like the 49ers with Nick Bossa. McVay and the Rams are usually fine against teams like the Cards, but you need real talent, especially on the o-line, to match up against talented d-lines.

I think we all know that here. I just find it frustrating to see this completely ignored from Rodrigue.

Where are the good o-line players going to come from? I’m not sure the Rams even have ONE good player o-line now. They have no cap and, now, have lost some good picks to find those players.

McVay and Snead are getting way too much benefit of the doubt from Rodrigue and other Rams fans.

McVay and Snead have made a number of bad gambles after they lost the benefits of Goff’s rookie deal–the 2019 plan to replace Saffold & Sullivan was lousy, the plan for the 3rd WR this year sucked, and the special teams in 2020 (remember Sloman??) revealed the dangers of replacing talented players with a lottery ticket.

It will be interesting to see what the Lions do this year. They actually have some interesting potential on offense: two good tackles, a 2nd team-all pro Center, a young & talented TE, and a WR in Golladay, who will provide Goff with a big, talented guy who can go get the ball. Goff has never played with a guy like that.

If the Rams have an injury-riddled year that leads to a losing record this year or next, the Lions will definitely be laughing all the way to the bank.

wv wrote:

I am gonna enjoy FINALLY
seeing a Ram QB with a GUN, LoL.

tony banks had a gun…

no stafford’s not that bad. but i question the trade. we’ll see.

Lions fans. Not thrilled with Goff, but he’s a “middle tier QB”

moved by me
…

Shannon Sharp and Skip Bayless on the trade.

From SI: MMQB: Inside the Trade Negotiations

…The Matthew Stafford sweepstakes lasted, in essence, seven days. And while the Lions certainly had the idea that they wanted it to happen quickly in the back of their minds—to get ahead of quarterbacks potentially flooding the market and bending the supply/demand curve, or Deshaun Watson turning Stafford into a consolation prize—there was no telling how quickly things would materialize.

They got their answer quickly, with interest rising fast in a quarterback that the NFL was resoundingly, if implicitly, endorsing as a star with the way the market for his services exploded.

Detroit, really, had been set up for this for a while. Stafford made his desires known to owner Sheila Ford Hamp and president Rod Wood the day after the season ended, and it was on the mind of the Lions brass as the group went through interviewing GM and coaching candidates. In fact, it was one area in which Holmes, who worked under Snead and helped evaluate Goff in 2016, distinguished himself.

In Holmes’s first interview with Detroit, he explained the process of picking Goff, and how the Rams had decided to take him over Carson Wentz five years ago. Back for a second interview, after being apprised of the situation with Stafford, rather that recoil, his excitement reverberated—not to move the team off Stafford, but for how he’d handle such a big-ticket situation, from getting value for the quarterback to finding his replacement.

Little did he know how soon all of it would come into play.

News of Stafford’s availability emerged two Saturdays ago, which is part of why the Lions figured dispatching Disner and Holmes to Mobile for the Senior Bowl—where they could meet with other teams—would be smart. The two came back late in the week with multiple teams willing to throw a first-round pick in the ring.

Word was that Stafford’s preferred destinations were, in order, the Rams, Niners and Colts. And while the Lions were always going to do what was best for the Lions (and Stafford didn’t have a no-trade clause to commandeer the process), they were also cognizant of what their former No. 1 pick wanted.

By the time things started to come to a boiling point, the Lions had an initial offer from the Rams (their 2022 first-rounder, Goff, and an additional pick) that wasn’t going to cut it. But it was that interest from the Rams—and that it became public on Friday night, via a report from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler—that prompted a frenzy to land Stafford. By Saturday, the market had crystallized.

• Both Washington and Carolina had offered their first-round picks and then some. The Panthers’ first-rounder is eighth (that wound up being the highest pick offered) and their proposal came with a later pick. Washington packaged a third-round pick with the 19th pick.

• The Colts discussed packages of picks and players, but never actually wound up offering their first-rounder, the 21st pick.

• The Niners talked to the Lions in Mobile, but at the time were a little lukewarm and never made an official offer. They’d planned to circle back with Detroit after the weekend, but when things escalated Saturday and the Lions called back, the price had gone beyond what they were willing to offer (in part because they’re fine going forward with Jimmy Garoppolo). My sense is the 12th pick was never going to be offered.

• The Broncos discussed a pick swap with the Lions that would have equated to a late first-round pick, but it wound up becoming clear to Denver that they weren’t playing in the neighborhood where this was going.

• The Patriots and Bears both checked in. New England was willing to package a second-rounder with a player to get Stafford, which, when added to the Patriots’ absence on a list of preferred destinations (something my buddy Tom Curran reported on Sunday) quickly eliminated Bill Belichick & Co. from the chase.

• And finally, late Friday, the Jets checked in. The Lions circled back with New York on Saturday, but talks didn’t go very far.

That gave the Lions more than a quarter of the NFL in on the Stafford Derby—again, indicating just what the NFL thinks of No. 9. It also gave Hamp, Wood and Disner the knowledge that they’d accomplish a goal of theirs by giving Holmes the ammo to do what’s at the heart of what got him into that GM chair, and that’s evaluating college players, maximizing draft picks and, ultimately, building a strong, younger roster as a result.

Anyway, by midday on Saturday, Washington and Carolina had emerged as the favorites to land Stafford, and the Lions came to the realization that a deal could be in the offing. But if they’d guessed at that point where Stafford was going, they’d have probably been wrong.

It’s been two weeks since the Rams were eliminated from the NFC playoffs in the divisional round, and the way the season ended left plenty for interpretation. Goff was injured in Week 16, missed the team’s Week 17 game, then came off the bench after John Wolford started in his place in the wild-card round. Snead and McVay declining to commit to Goff as their 2021 starter turned heads, for sure, and provided a clue.

While the Rams were fine going forward with Goff and Wolford as their quarterbacks, just two years after signing Goff to a four-year, $134 million extension, the team was also very open to taking advantage of the expected unprecedented quarterback movement to come.

This, really, is who the Rams have become since returning to L.A. five years ago. For better or worse, there’s been absolutely no fear to flip draft capital for established stars, a trend that actually started right after the team flipped a group of picks to move up in the draft and land Goff himself. And with uncertainty over whether Watson or others would be available later in the winter, the Rams homed in on Stafford.

But talking about it was always going to be a lot easier than pulling it off. The Rams’ deal with Goff was, for the most part, ironclad for the next two years—$43 million of the $54.3 million he’s due is fully guaranteed with no offset language (meaning his signing with another team offered no relief)—making what was necessary in getting Stafford (shedding Goff) complicated. In essence, absent finding a taker for the deal, cutting Goff before paying him the $54.3 million over the next two years would have meant paying out the $43 million.

That forced the Rams to be flexible with the Lions, who had the aforementioned strong offers, but really did like the idea of getting a legitimate starting quarterback for Dan Campbell out of the deal. Making it even tougher was the fact the Rams didn’t have a first-round pick, their 2021 slot gone as the last piece of the Jalen Ramsey trade, which only gave the Lions impetus to ask for more.

Two things worked to buoy the Rams’ interest, and the first was McVay’s personal drive to get the deal done.

Along those lines, McVay was the one who called Rams owner Stan Kroenke on Saturday to sign off on the team going the extra mile to get it done, spurred by some extra tape work he and Snead did. That work only cemented what McVay loved about Stafford already—how quickly he processes, his pocket movement, his play urgency, his ability to throw off platform or in rhythm and his tough, fearless style—which pushed Snead into the mode where he was going into the afternoon with the intention of getting a deal done.

The second thing was that everyone the Rams asked loved and believed in Stafford. And that wound up including McVay himself, who happened to have a casual friendship with him. McVay is buddies with Bills receivers coach Chad Hall, from the days when the two were star high school quarterbacks in the Atlanta area (McVay at Marist, Hall at Wesleyan), and Hall’s sister happens to be … Kelly Hall Stafford.

Before this week, the Stafford-McVay relationship wasn’t a whole lot more than saying hello and maybe hanging out a little before games and at events. But it was enough for the Rams to match what they were hearing on Stafford with McVay’s own experience.

So, really, as afternoon turned to night on Saturday in Detroit, the Lions’ brass stayed in the office, and kept Hamp fully abreast of the situation—a deal most certainly could happen.

On paper, the return looks a little wild. But the Rams’ perspective on the deal was a little different than most.

First, as they saw it, if the first-round picks wind up being in the 20s (or later), then they’d have given up about what, on a points basis, Carolina was offering with the eighth overall pick. The old Jimmy Johnson draft value chart puts the eighth pick at 1,400 points, making it equal to two 26th overall picks (700 each). And getting a clean break on Goff, and offloading his deal, rather than having to smoke out suitors under duress was a big benefit.

The third-rounder they’re giving up this year, interestingly enough, they’ll essentially get back as a comp pick for the Lions’ hire of Holmes.

And Snead’s department has found a way to dig out guys like Cam Akers, Van Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, John Johnson, Taylor Rapp, Samson Ebukam, Gerald Everett, Jordan Fuller, Darious Williams, and Sebastian Joseph-Day outside the first round over the last few years. Of course, with a top-heavy salary structure, and no first-rounders the next three years, it’s going to be more essential to do it now than ever. But the Rams have shown they can.

With all this in mind, the Rams’ front office moved forward, knowing that, at the very least, it had to beat a current-year top-10 pick to get Stafford. As the group worked on it, a couple things came up. One was that Brees and Aaron Rodgers had only been to one Super Bowl apiece, Russell Wilson hadn’t been back to the NFC title game in five years and Ben Roethlisberger had only gone that far once since his last Super Bowl, 10 years ago. Another was a stat that a member of the brass saw on social media.

Lions QB Matthew Stafford, in 166 starts, has only had a 100-yard rusher 11 times.

Both things reinforced, to everyone in the room, how hard it is to win in the NFL, and how important it is, when you have a team you think is capable of making to the top, to give it every chance—even if that means walking away from a quarterback who’s second in wins to Tom Brady over the last four years (Goff is, with 42).

And in the weird circumstances of 2020, it meant Snead, Demoff, and Pastoors getting the deal done over FaceTime, out of the office and in different spots outside of L.A., with McVay hunting down his new quarterback to celebrate in Mexico in the aftermath.

So Stafford’s a Ram, under contract for the next two years at a relative bargain price of $43 million, and set to turn 33 on Super Bowl Sunday, and the message this sends to all of his soon-to-be-teammates couldn’t be clearer: The brain trust believes the team is ready to win very big and win very big right now.

Maybe it’ll work, and Stafford will be holding a trophy a year from now. Maybe it won’t, and the roster will be in ruins a couple years down the line, cap-strapped and bereft of young talent.

Either way, this mic-dropping moment for the Rams will echo for years to come.

Five Key Takeaways From the Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff Trade

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-five-key-takeaways-from-the-matthew-stafford-jared-goff-trade

The interwebs are already full of misguided takes on what the Los Angeles Rams gave up for Matthew Stafford in the blockbuster trade announced Saturday night. The trade was a pivotal move for both franchises, and the risks and rewards extend beyond the particulars of the deal. There are a handful of key points to understand when analyzing the trade and its ramifications over the next few years.

THE TRADE COMPENSATION WASN’T THE HAUL SOME THINK

A superficial accounting lists two first-round picks, a third-round pick and Jared Goff as the compensation for Stafford. But those first rounders are future picks, and the trade market has traditionally discounted future picks significantly.

We can get an estimate of the current trade value for future first-round picks by analyzing the last three trades with future first rounders added onto easily valued current picks.

Player Pick JJ Value Traded Picks JJ Value Future 1st JJ Value
Mahomes 10 1,300 27, 91 816 484
Watson 12 1,200 25 720 480
Davenport 14 1,100 27, 147 713 387
Average: 450

Using values from the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, the implied values for future first-round picks in the above transactions can be found by calculating the difference between the value of current picks received and traded away. Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were acquired in the 2017 draft at pick No. 10 and No. 12, respectively, and each included a future first as part of the trade compensation. It was the same situation when the New Orleans Saints traded up for Marcus Davenport in 2018.

The implied values of the future first-round picks in these deals ranged from roughly the 42nd (480 JJ value) to the 50th pick (387 JJ value), or solidly in the middle of the second round. If you consider that draft-day trades are probably more likely to overpay than in an offseason deal like this, you can move the value up a bit higher to the front of the second round.

Noting their market values, the future first-round picks the Rams traded away should be viewed the same way as trade packages including current picks. It’s likely that teams undervalued future picks, but that doesn’t change the market dynamics that should dictate acquisition costs. If you add up the implied values of the future first-round picks and the current third-round pick the Rams traded away, the total value is in line with a 2021 first round pick in the 15-20 range.

There are reasons to think that the teams might value future picks more due to difficultly evaluating this offseason, or that the Lions specifically should value future, multiple picks more with a likely path of rebuilding ahead. Adding these considerations, the market value of the pick package could be viewed higher, but probably not as high as a single top-10 pick.

If you’re basing potential Deshaun Watson trades building on this deal as two first rounders, then you’re not capturing the discount on future picks and where they’ll likely be in the first round.

THE LIONS ARE DOING THE SMART THING AND EMBRACING VARIANCE

While the market value of the Rams’ future picks might be lower than some think, the real value is probably higher. The Lions have given themselves the opportunity to benefit greatly from things going against expectations.

The baseline assumptions built into the trade are that the Rams will be a playoff team, picking near the end of the first round and that Jared Goff isn’t valuable with his current contract. It’s possible for these assumptions to get slightly worse for the Lions, but the downside is limited. If the Rams win the Super Bowl both years and the Lions are drafting at 32 instead of an assumed 25, it hurts a little. If Goff struggles and needs to be cut, the Lions will have dead cap charges — not the worst thing in a rebuild.

The downside risk for the Lions is limited, but the upside is huge. The Lions are now short the success of the Rams, and I explain below why that might not be the worst position to have. If the Rams struggle the next two seasons, the Lions could have multiple top-15 picks, or perhaps one top-10 if things really go badly. The jump in value going from an assumed draft position of 25 to the top-10 is enormous — much greater than the downside of falling to 32. If the former No. 1 pick Goff can turn things around and play like he did in 2017-2018, the Lions could have a real franchise quarterback or a valuable trade asset in a year or two.

The Lions probably aren’t competing for the next couple of years, so acquiring assets with limited downside and disproportionate upside is the perfect play to raise their ceiling going forward.

STAFFORD WON’T NECESSARILY MAKE THE RAMS BETTER

I hate to step into #QBWinz territory here, but this might be how Stafford is judged a season or two post-trade. The Rams have been one of the most successful franchises in the NFL the last four seasons, whether you think that’s because or in spite of Jared Goff. The Rams ended the last four years with one trip to the Super Bowl, two other playoff appearances and a 9-7 record that would have been good enough to make the playoffs under the format the NFL adopted last season.

What carried the Rams in 2020 wasn’t Goff, who ranked 19th in PFF passing grade (71.9), but a defense that had the best grade in the NFL (85.9). We know that defensive stability is lower than offensive, and the Rams lost Brandon Staley, their wiz kid coordinator who became the head coach of the crosstown Los Angeles Chargers. The Rams were relatively lucky with injuries before the playoffs, with Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald and many other key contributors playing full or nearly full seasons.

If the Rams defense falters with bad injury luck, difficulty adjusting to a new coordinator or lose key free agents like John Johnson, Leonard Floyd and Troy Hill, the team could miss the playoffs, even if Stafford is playing at a higher level than what we’ve seen from Goff.

Our grading didn’t see a huge difference between the performance of Stafford and Goff since 2017 (excluding Goff’s disastrous rookie season), with Stafford posting a PFF passing grade of 84.7 and Goff at 81.6. Though Goff’s numbers had been on a steady decline in the most recent seasons, Stafford had one of his best years ever in a shortened 2019.

THE RAMS HAVE GONE ALL-IN MORE THAN ANY TEAM IN THE NFL

The Rams have been in win-now mode for years, and this deal pulls even more future assets into the present. With this trade, the Rams won’t, as of now, have made or hold any of their first-round picks over a seven-year window from 2017-2023.

The total list of picks traded for Jared Goff (the No. 1 pick), Jalen Ramsey and now Matthew Stafford is something to behold:

Six first-round picks
Two second-round picks
Three third-round picks

All of the traded picks mean fewer opportunities to fill the roster with cheaper rookie contracts, some of the best values in the NFL. As of now, the Rams’ the top-10 cap charges in 2021 add up to more than $140 million, which would equal more than 75% of a hypothetical $180 million COVID-affected salary cap.

Without the breadth of talent that comes from cheaper rookie contracts and cap space for mid-range free agents, the Rams will have one of the most fragile rosters in the NFL. If the Rams’ top players, like Stafford, Donald, Ramsey, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, can stay healthy, they’ll be a top competitor in 2021. But any injuries or unexpected dips in performance could sink the Rams’ precarious roster.

Looking forward, the loss of picks in 2022 and 2023 compounds the team’s difficulty in building back a talent pipeline, which not only provides cheap current deals but also leads to extensions that come much cheaper than paying for talent in free agency or via trades.

THE LIONS ARE IN ON JARED GOFF AS THEIR FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK, FOR NOW

The trade value discussion above showed that the pure package of picks for Stafford, excluding Goff, wasn’t necessarily a lot more than what the Lions could have gotten from other teams. Reportedly, there were multiple suitors for Stafford willing to give up at least a first-round pick, which would put these other trades in the ballpark of the compensation the Lions received from the Rams.

The powers of deduction can only lead us to assume that the addition of Goff to the deal was viewed by the Lions as, at worst, of slightly negative value. The Lions likely don’t see Goff’s contract, which will pay him $27.2 million per season over the next two years, as a significant deadweight.

Goff’s contract has guarantees of $27.5 million in 2021 and another $15.5 million in 2022, meaning he’s not a player you acquire with the intention of then cutting with minimal cost. Brad Holmes, the Lions’ new general manager, is familiar with Goff from his time working in the Rams’ front office, and he could very well view Goff through a more positive prism than football pundits who thought he could only be moved if the Rams gave away additional compensation.

Sure, the Lions could draft a quarterback with the No. 7 pick, making Goff a placeholder, but making this deal means that doesn’t have to happen, at least this offseason.

What this also means is that the tank, at least the intentional tank, is probably off in Detroit. There’s little chance Goff isn’t on the roster this coming season, and while he isn’t an elite quarterback, he brings more winning potential than other quarterbacks on the 2021 roster, like Chase Daniel, or one that the Lions could acquire in the draft with the No. 7 pick.

New head coach Dan Campbell has assembled a well-credentialed staff, and whatever we think of the bizarre moments in his introductory press conference, the attitude and actions for the Lions point toward a team looking to win in 2021, even if legitimately competing is far fetched.