Sando: Previewing the wild-card matchups through the eyes of coaches & execs

Sando’s Pick Six: Previewing the wild-card matchups through the eyes of coaches and execs

Mike Sando

https://theathletic.com/1497031/2019/12/30/sandos-pick-six-previewing-the-wild-card-matchups-through-the-eyes-of-coaches-and-execs/?source=dailyemail

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1. The Titans blew out the Patriots 34-10 last season and are averaging 30 points per game with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback this season. Will they win in Foxboro?

“It is interesting because I feel like Tennessee is not intimidated by them,” a head coach familiar with both teams said. “I don’t know if it’s because of Mike Vrabel or what, but it’s like they understand how New England is going to play.”

The Patriots have lost eight times in their past 30 regular-season games. They suffered four of those defeats against teams coached by New England alums. There was the 27-24 defeat to the Brian Flores-led Dolphins on Sunday, and a 28-22 defeat to the Bill O’Brien-coached Texans in Week 13. Last season, there was the 34-10 defeat to the Vrabel-coached Titans in Week 10, and a 26-10 defeat to the Matt Patricia-led Detroit Lions in Week 3.

“The strength of Tennessee is their offense, their run game, being able to move the ball,” a coordinator said. “I think New England will be able to match that to some degree with its defense, but the New England offense has sucked this year, and they are going to struggle because the Titans are big up front, they got good ‘backers, they can create some pressure and they will play some man coverage. It will be a low-scoring game and I think it will come down to if (Ryan) Tannehill can handle it, because Tannehill in his first playoff game ever, especially in that atmosphere, could make some mistakes.”

The Titans rank third in points per game and second in offensive expected points added since Tannehill became their starter in Week 7. They are 7-3 in those games, but Tannehill’s career 0-6 record at Foxboro is fair game until he wins there. As the table shows, Tannehill’s statistics in those defeats at New England — all during his career with the Dolphins — look nothing like his numbers with the Titans this season.

Ryan Tannehill 6 career starts at NE Last 6 Titans starts
W-L 0-6 4-2
Comp-Att 142-233 104-150
Pct. 61% 69%
Yards 1,560 1,581
Yards/Att 6.7 10.5
TD-INT 5-10 14-2
Passer Rating 70.0 129.3
Sacked 24 12
Sack Rate 9.3% 8.5%

“New England had good rush plans for Tannehill in the past,” another coach said. “They will try to make sure they get him off his first progression. It’s funny, but Ryan Fitzpatrick, who doesn’t care if he throws six interceptions or six touchdowns, could be better suited to beat a team like New England. Tannehill will try to do a good job of not turning it over.”

2. The Texans will try to end their recent playoff futility when Buffalo visits Saturday. A 16-10 defeat to Carolina in Week 4 could give the Bills’ defense an edge.

Coaches generally expect the Texans to pull out a victory because they aren’t convinced Bills quarterback Josh Allen is ready to win a playoff game on the road, but respect for Buffalo’s defense is so strong that an upset would not come as a shock, particularly when considering Houston’s dismal playoff performances. The aforementioned Week 4 game between the Panthers and Texans could provide a blueprint. Ron Rivera was the Panthers’ coach at the time, which matters because Bills coach Sean McDermott spent five seasons as the Panthers’ defensive coordinator under him, from 2011-16.

“McDermott is going to devour that late September tape of Carolina vs. Houston,” a defensive coach said. “If McDermott can catch Coach Rivera in between his head coach interviews, he is going to have a nice conversation with him about how they defended Houston. That will be a hidden advantage to Buffalo.”

The Panthers held Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson to less than 4.9 per pass attempt in that Week 4 game, a season low for Watson and the third-worst figure of his career, counting playoffs.

“It is all about whether Josh Allen turns the ball over,” an offensive play caller said. “The Bills’ defense is one of the best. McDermott is doing about as good a job as you can ask. He is really tough to go against. He has a good variety of stuff, but it’s not too much. Getting 49 (Tremaine Edmunds) has made a big difference, the two safeties are good, they’ve got a shutdown corner (Tre’Davious White), they’ve got team speed, most of their guys have been together three years. They have enough pieces to make it difficult.”

Twenty-two teams have played two or more postseason games since 2014, when Bill O’Brien became the Texans’ head coach. Houston ranks last among those teams in offensive points per game (12.5), last in offensive EPA per game (-16.6) and 21st in percentage of passes gaining more than 15 yards. Most of those games predated Watson, but even Watson struggled in his playoff debut last season, a 21-7 home defeat against Indianapolis.

“Buffalo can get pressure, they are a disciplined defense and they have some guys that can run,” a head coach said. “They will put the corner (White) on Houston’s receiver (DeAndre Hopkins) and that will be a good matchup. He will not catch a lot of balls. It will come down to if the other receiver, who is not bad, (Will) Fuller, can win his matchups.”

3. The Saints averaged 40 points per game over their final four games and will be playing at home against a Vikings team quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins. It was tough finding anyone willing to pick Minnesota in this matchup.

Minnesota has played a dozen games over the past two seasons against teams that finished with winning records. The Vikings are 2-10 in those games for a .167 winning percentage that is half the .335 league average against winning teams. Both Vikings victories were against the Eagles.

“Minnesota gets (Dalvin) Cook back and they will run the shit out of the ball and that can neutralize some of Dennis Allen’s creativity with the pressure packages,” a defensive coach said. “But it’s a bad matchup because you have an explosive New Orleans offense against a Minnesota defense that is not as formidable as it once was, and an offense that needs a lead. I see New Orleans having a 10-point lead mid-second quarter.”

Multiple coaches said they didn’t trust Cousins in a big game, hardly a fresh take. Perhaps San Francisco provided a blueprint against the Saints. The 49ers won a 48-46 shootout in the Superdome running an offensive scheme similar to the Vikings’ play-action attack, led by a quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo who, like Cousins, has faced questions about his ability to carry an offense that is predicated on the run, by design.

The Saints opened as eight-point favorites.

“That tight end, (Jared) Cook, gives them something they haven’t had since Jimmy Graham was there and still good, which is a matchup guy at that position,” an offensive coordinator said. “Drew (Brees) knows how to take advantage of it. Then they’ve got the receiver (Michael Thomas) who is really good, and then they’ve got (Alvin) Kamara. They have really big offensive linemen that work well together and a quarterback who gets the ball out. They are going to be tough because of that.”

4. The Eagles won their final four regular-season games to claim the NFC East title, but they opened as a home underdog against a Seattle team that lost three of its final four.

Philly played much or all of its division-clinching victory over the Giants without offensive contributors Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks. Seattle played much or all of its Week 17 game against the 49ers without offensive contributors Duane Brown, Justin Britt, Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, C.J. Procise, Will Dissly, Luke Willson, Jaron Brown and Josh Gordon.

The last men standing from these teams will gather at Lincoln Financial Field for a rematch of a forgettable Week 12 game between the teams, which Seattle won, 17-9. Seattle is counting on having safety Quandre Diggs back from a high-ankle sprain. His availability seems to be a critical variable for a Seattle secondary that has seemed slow to react without him.

“Philly offensively will not be able to do a whole lot,” an offensive coach said. “A lot of it depends on if Ertz is back, but with a broken rib, I do not know.”

Seattle was trailing 13-0 in the third quarter against the 49ers Sunday night when I ducked into a storage room at CenturyLink Field to better hear what a coach from another team had to say about a likely matchup between the Seahawks and Eagles.

“If Pete (Carroll) can just get these guys in some kind of rhythm tonight, even if they lose, that is really ideal,” the coach said.

Roars emanated from the Seattle crowd as the coach was speaking. The Seahawks had just scored the first of three second-half touchdowns to give the 49ers a run for the division title.

Brown, Seattle’s left tackle, could miss another week following knee surgery, but Lynch and rookie running back Travis Homer showed enough for coaches to lean toward Seattle against Philly, particularly if Diggs returns.

“What is so interesting about Seattle is, in the vision of Pete Carroll, they are going to run the ball and play defense, except in the games when they don’t play defense and allow 25 points, and then they get to pure pass and that is when they move the ball the best,” an exec said. “If Philadelphia can score a few points, maybe we get to see Russell Wilson come out of his handoff shell. That is what happened against the 49ers and he looked pretty good in that two-minute offense, didn’t he?”

The Seahawks rank 23rd in offensive EPA and 27th in defensive EPA over their last four games. Philly ranks among the top 10 on both sides of the ball over that stretch, aided by two games against the Giants and one against Washington.

5. The Dolphins lost 43-0 to the Patriots at home in Week 2. They beat New England 27-24 at Foxborough in Week 17 when New England was the only team with anything to gain.

Rival coaches marveled at what the Dolphins pulled off Sunday.

“Miami has nothing, no firepower,” an exec said. “Obviously, there is some good coaching culture going on there. The problem was when he (Flores) did not have his guys on board with what he was doing, they got beat by 43. The let their good players leave and they are one of the most injured teams in the league, but they keep their nose to the grindstone, go 5-4 in their last nine, win a game in the hardest place to play in the National Football League.”

The Dolphins were on pace at one point this season to surpass the 1976 Buccaneers for the worst single-season point differential at minus-287. But as the chart shows, Miami began separating from those expansion Bucs near midseason. Their minus-188 differential for the season was worst in the NFL for 2019, but they went 5-4 over their final nine games. Miami was minus-27 in point differential over its final nine. Nine other teams were worse, including the playoff-bound Texans, who were at minus-28 while finishing 6-3.