Sando: NFL execs and coaches weigh in on the divisional round

NFL execs and coaches weigh in on the divisional round matchups

Mike Sando

https://theathletic.com/1522229/2020/01/09/nfl-execs-and-coaches-weigh-in-on-the-divisional-round-matchups/?source=dailyemail

After a dramatic wild-card round featuring two overtime games, the NFL’s highest-seeded teams will join the action in the divisional round this weekend. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers add star power following first-round byes. There’s much to discuss about all four games. Below you’ll find thoughts from coaches and execs around the league regarding all four matchups, plus some stats of interest.

(6) Tennessee Titans at (1) Baltimore Ravens
The plan for Lamar Jackson: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson led the league in touchdown passes (36) and in rushes gaining at least 12 yards (also 36), despite sitting out the final regular-season game. For reference, Michael Vick had 186 explosive runs for his 143-game career, most in the NFL since 2000. Cam Newton has 120 such runs. And so the Titans, like every Ravens opponent, must have a special strategy.

“Tennessee will try to anchor down with their front four and try to run with their backers and their DBs,” an offensive coordinator said. “They may play sub against them. They will look at what the Chargers did to them in the playoff game last year and I wouldn’t be surprised if they feel like, because they are bigger up front, that they can hold up to that and then use some of their faster speed guys to compensate for the run game, being able to fill.”

Ryan Tannehill vs. the blitz: The Ravens blitz more than any team in the league, regardless of score differential. The Titans’ Ryan Tannehill has taken 13 sacks on 113 blitz snaps during the regular season and wild-card round, giving him the fourth-highest sack rate against the blitz among the 33 quarterbacks with at least 75 snaps in those situations. Tannehill has been relatively efficient passing against the blitz (seven touchdowns, two interceptions, 105.2 rating, and a slightly above average 38 percent first-down rate). Time-to-sack and time-to-throw metrics show Tannehill tends to hold the ball.

“Baltimore’s defense is going to pick-stunt and drop guys into coverage,” a former head coach said. “Tennessee’s line is good if you are rushing straight at those guys, because they are big. But when you start picking them and they have to move and they can’t just turn, it hurts them. Baltimore’s pressures will give Tennessee problems. New England also does a little of the same thing (pick stunts). Tennessee was scared of that, so they played it close to the vest, thinking they could hold the Patriots’ offense, which they did. But I think they are going to struggle with Baltimore.”

Assessing the Titans’ chances: “I guess if there is a defense that could handle Baltimore, it is Tennessee’s defense, which is big and physical,” a different former head coach said. “But facing Lamar Jackson is almost like in college when you used to play a wishbone team and you’d say, ‘How do we play these guys?’ You try to simulate it, but you don’t know what you are getting until you get the speed of the game on Sunday (Saturday in this case). I think Baltimore will be really tough out there.”

(6) Minnesota Vikings at (1) San Francisco 49ers
Kyle Shanahan in focus: When the 49ers blew out the Packers in Week 12, a veteran coach credited San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan as a differentiating force through his scheming. Specifically, Shanahan showed the ability to create and exploit mismatches. The coach thought Green Bay was more apt to simply run its offense. With the 49ers and Vikings running very similar offensive schemes in their divisional-round matchup, the same coach was asked whether Shanahan might again hold an edge once again.

“The (Gary) Kubiak way, the Mike Shanahan way is they run their stuff — this is what we run — and it can be very effective,” the same coach said. “But Kyle, what he does is adapt what he does against the defense. He makes changes, not in his scheme, but different ways to attack it. That, to me, is the difference.”

What Shanahan might exploit: Minnesota has listed cornerback Xavier Rhodes as a full participant in practice, an indication he’ll play against the 49ers despite ankle and shoulder issues.

“If Xavier Rhodes plays, Kyle will go after him,” this offensive coach said. “They are going to try to put pressure on to get the safeties down in the box, which is what (Vikings coach Mike) Zimmer does, and then take shots off play-action. If Zimmer is dropping everyone out, they will throw checkdowns to the backs and kill them with the backs. If you watch Minnesota, they are either a pressure team trying to play it tight to stop the run, or they put everybody up there and they drop them out.”

A word on these defenses: Both teams figure to spend much of the game in their base defenses. That is because San Francisco finished the regular season ranked first and Minnesota was second in offensive plays using two running backs.

“For most defenses, there is shock value when you have to fit the two-back run, but both these teams play against it in camp and OTAs, so this really is, in Mike Zimmer’s words, big-boy football,” a defensive coach said. “Who can reestablish the line of scrimmage and then keep it going? You try to limit the run, but then there’s play-action, and if not the play-action, it’s the screen game. I could easily see this thing becoming a battle of two at-times-elite defenses, specifically their fronts.”

Big-boy football did not always serve the Vikings well against New Orleans last week. They lost four yards on four plays using 23 personnel (two backs, three tight ends) from the 3-yard-line and closer. They did score a touchdown on one of those plays from the 1-yard-line, but just barely. Will the Vikings win those matchups against the 49ers, or might they use lighter personnel? Twenty-three personnel was once a staple near the goal line, but not any longer. Only 10 teams used it from the 3-yard-line or closer during the regular season. Overall, teams were five times more likely to use 11 personnel in that area of the field. No team has used 23 personnel against the 49ers from the 3-yard-line or closer this season.

(4) Houston Texans at (2) Kansas City Chiefs
The Watson factor: Deshaun Watson rushed for two scores and passed for another to offset two interceptions when Houston overcame a 17-3 deficit to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City back in Week 6.

“Houston has a shot because Deshaun is an equalizer and they can do some of that read-option stuff, which conflicts you,” a coach who faced the Chiefs this season said. “We studied a lot of their tape before we played Kansas City. Whether they can replicate that, I don’t know. The weather can be a factor for a dome team. That can be underplayed. When you watch Kansas City on defense, they are playing way different than they were in the beginning. A bunch of them get it now.”

Dealing with Chiefs’ weapons: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman give the Chiefs explosive weaponry that is even harder to defend with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. That’s problematic for a Texans defense that ranked 28th in expected points added (EPA) this season, although J.J. Watt’s return gives defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel some needed firepower.

“Houston will start off with a bunch of guys in the box, and then drop into quarters and try to hopefully get pressure with their guys up front,” an offensive coordinator said. “Houston’s linebackers are good. They can cover the underneath stuff. The wild card is Mahomes’ ability to scramble and throw it to guys on the move, and that is what hurts the quarters defense when they are playing that zone. That is the only way Houston can match up. If they try to play man, they do not have the corners.”

On the Texans’ inconsistencies: Houston finished among the NFL’s top eight in offensive EPA this season. However, among those top eight offenses, the Texans own three of the seven worst single-game performances (at Baltimore, at Tampa Bay and home against Carolina). They also own the single best offensive EPA performance among those top-eight offensive teams, dominating to a shocking extent during a 53-32 victory over the Atlanta Falcons.

“I think Kansas City will win, but that could be my upset game, because with Houston, you just do not know,” a personnel director said. “I just love the fact that when it gets crazy, Watson doesn’t necessarily throw the ball very well, but he can scramble and create and he is tough. Watson is better when it’s muddy, just like Ben Roethlisberger was. He is that type of quarterback.”

(5) Seattle Seahawks at (2) Green Bay Packers
More QB featuring, please: The Packers lack dynamic offensive weaponry in the passing game and have done more to feature their ground attack under new coach Matt LaFleur. Seattle has long preferred a run-heavy approach, adjusting last week when Philadelphia took away that aspect.

“The irony of this matchup is that this is really the only game featuring two Tier 1 quarterbacks and both offensive play callers want to shrink the game and delay turning it over to their passers,” an exec said. “That may not be the most effective strategy when you think that 25 other teams are doing everything in their power just to acquire a Tier 1 quarterback. Think of the fireworks that would ensue if either one of those QBs played for Andy Reid. I don’t know, what do you think?”

Both Seattle and Green Bay have won at high rates using their preferred approaches, of course, and Reid has far superior weaponry in the passing game. Still, here’s hoping Wilson and Rodgers play prominent roles Sunday before the waning moments of the fourth quarter. Sub-freezing temperatures might not help, however.

A vote for Seattle’s run game: Philly held Seahawks running backs Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch to a combined 19 yards on 27 carries. Green Bay’s run defense has faltered at times. Does Seattle take advantage with its offensive line healthier this week?

“I think Seattle will run the ball on Green Bay’s defense,” a defensive coach said. “The Chargers did not run it well this season, but had success against those guys. I think Russell Wilson’s ability to scramble will give them problems. Green Bay is an up-the-field rush team. That is what the Smiths do, Preston and Za’Darius. And one thing Russell is good at is stepping up through the line and running or throwing the ball. I think it will be a tight game that could go either way, but Seattle has been really good about hanging around in games and making some plays to win in the end, especially on the road.”

Rodgers’ scramble game: From 2012 through 2018, Rodgers gained between 20 and 25 rushing first downs per season in the five seasons he made 16 starts. The figure was nine first downs by rushing for Rodgers this season, matching the career low he set in 2013, when he started only nine games. That is one aspect to watch Sunday. The last time Green Bay defeated Seattle, 17-9 in the 2017 opener, Rodgers added 3.5 EPA on scrambles. He picked up first downs on two third-and-4s and on a third-and-11. Rodgers’ total number of scrambles has declined in recent seasons from the low 40s several years ago to 26 this season.

“It is almost like they have him so programmed to manage the game that he knows throwing away the ball is part of it,” a defensive coach said. “Does that change in the playoffs? For all we know, (coach Matt) LaFleur green-lights him and says, ‘Hey, if getting to a championship game means a bruised knee and strained hammy, let’s do it.’”