Roe Vs. Wade looks like it could be coming to an end.

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  • #134298
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/02/supreme-court-signalling-end-roe-v-wade

    The supreme court is signalling that it’s ready to end Roe v Wade
    By Moira Donegan, The Guardian

    It went worse than had been expected, and expectations were already low. As the supreme court prepared to hear oral arguments in Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization, a lawsuit over a 15-week abortion ban in Mississippi that constitutes the most serious challenge to Roe v Wade in a generation, many court watchers predicted a massive rollback of abortion rights. But the line among reasonable pundits was that the court, fearing censure from a largely pro-choice American public, would attempt to have its cake and eat it too – allowing states to impose abortion bans earlier in pregnancy, but keeping abortion as a constitutional right intact.

    The most convincing version of this argument came from Slate’s Mark Joseph Stern, who predicted that the court, like it did in 1992’s Planned Parenthood v Casey, might weaken the abortion right without abandoning it entirely. In Casey, the supreme court lessened the standard of scrutiny applied to state abortion restrictions – from a robust “strict scrutiny” standard to a more malleable “undue burden” standard – and affirmed that states could ban abortions outright after fetal viability, the point of gestation at which a fetus can survive outside the womb, usually at about 24 weeks.

    Stern, like many others, predicted that the court might impose an even more deferential legal test on abortion restrictions – “rational basis review” – and eliminate the viability standard. The result would be that states could ban and restrict abortions more easily, even before viability, but they would still not be allowed to ban abortions entirely. “The court could move back the point at which states can prohibit abortion outright from 24 weeks to 15 or perhaps 12, the end of the first trimester,” Stern wrote. “A diminished right to abortion would survive, battered but extant.”

    And yet the end of the viability standard would still have been practically disastrous for abortion access on the ground, as well as for women’s freedom and dignity. This much was elegantly explained by New York’s Irin Carmon, who wrote that attacks from conservatives over the past 30 years have increased the abortion right’s legal reliance on the viability standard, even as developments in pre- and neo-natal care have pushed viability itself earlier in pregnancy. “If a ban on abortion at 15 weeks is allowed for whatever reason, why not draw the line at six?” Carmon asked.

    The best-case scenario was legal chaos, misogynist lawmaking, and a diminished right to bodily autonomy for women

    Getting rid of the viability standard, but still leaving the right to abortion technically intact, would in practice invite an anarchic scramble, as conservative states rushed to ban abortion as early as possible and push the limit back sooner and sooner in pregnancy. Julie Rickelman, a longtime abortion rights advocate and the lawyer representing Mississippi’s lone abortion clinic in the Dobbs case, put it bluntly: if viability goes, Roe is effectively no longer good law. “If the court upholds this law, it will be discarding the viability line and overruling Roe,” she told Carmon. “That is the key line in the law that has protected people’s access to abortion.”

    In other words, the best-case scenario was legal chaos, misogynist lawmaking, a diminished right to bodily autonomy for women, and millions more people subject to forced pregnancy.

    But even these predictions – which pass for “optimism” among legal observers now that the supreme court is held in the chokehold of a conservative supermajority – proved too rosy. At oral arguments in Dobbs on Wednesday, five of the court’s six conservatives showed little interest in maintaining Roe while getting rid of viability. Instead, they were focused on eliminating Roe, and the abortion right, entirely. By the end, it seemed likely that conservatives have a crucial five votes to rule that the constitution does not protect the right to end a pregnancy: Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett.

    The lone exception among the conservatives was Chief Justice John Roberts, who seemed almost desperate to direct attention to the viability line. Over the course of arguments, Roberts repeatedly returned to the viability question, emphasizing that it was rejected as a possible standard in the initial 1973 Roe decision and only adopted later, in Casey. But none of the other conservatives took the bait.

    The two “swing” votes – if such an extremely and committedly conservative court can be said to have such a thing – are Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh. In a display of the impotence that has marked his career as chief justice, Roberts was unable to persuade either of them to take up his apparently preferred proposition of maintaining a shell of Roe while gutting the viability standard.

    Barrett suggests if a woman is pregnant and does not want to be, she can gestate and birth a child, and then simply give it away

    Instead, Kavanaugh spent much of his speaking time assuring his colleagues that they need not be bound by Roe’s precedent, listing a long litany of cases in which the supreme court reversed its own prior decisions. Barrett, meanwhile, emphasized the availability of adoption as a supposedly adequate alternative to abortion, at one point asserting that so-called “safe haven” laws, which allow birth mothers to surrender their parental rights and leave their infants in the care of others without punishment immediately after they give birth, offer an adequate remedy for pregnant women who cannot or do not wish to become parents. The idea was that if a woman is pregnant and does not want to be, an acceptable outcome would be for her to gestate and birth a child, and then simply give it away.

    The hardest-line conservatives, meanwhile, offered even more grim and ominous assessments of abortion as a matter of law, and their sadistic and extremist views give some indication of where the court may be heading in future cases. Both Alito and Thomas referred repeatedly to abortion as “taking a life”, and indicated that they would be open to recognizing fetal personhood. Until now, post-viability abortion bans have rested on the legal idea that the state has an interest in protecting fetal life that overrides a woman’s interest in controlling her own body after that point. But Alito and Thomas suggested that they think that interest belongs not only to the state, but to the fetus itself, and that this interest begins very early. “The fetus has an interest in having a life,” Alito said at one point. “That doesn’t change from the point before viability and after viability.”

    The suggestion that a fetus might have interests in its own right – interests that can be seen as equal or greater than the interests of the woman carrying it – is a dramatic step in anti-choice jurisprudence, one with dramatic implications for women’s healthcare, freedoms, and access to public life. After Wednesday’s oral arguments, it seems certain that Roe v Wade will soon be overturned. For this court, that’s just the beginning.

    #134316
    Zooey
    Participant

    Congressional Dems Are Failing to Secure Abortion Rights
    BY
    DAVID SIROTA ANDREW PEREZ
    Democrats promised legislation to codify Roe v. Wade and preempt the Texas anti-abortion law, but they’ve chosen to leave it sitting with a congressional panel. The inaction of Democrats is unacceptable.

    The Supreme Court’s decision to let an extreme Texas anti-abortion law stand has touched off yet another round of outraged tweets, press releases, and declarations insinuating that while the situation is awful and while the court needs to be overhauled, there is nothing that can be done right now to halt America’s inexorable lurch toward the Republic of Gilead.

    This is, in a word, garbage — and it is garbage with a pernicious purpose.

    Yes, America needs presidents who appoint more sane Supreme Court justices over the next few decades. And yes, the initiatives to expand the court and time-limit judicial terms are important over the long haul. But as Texas empowers anti-abortion activists to become bounty hunters, something can be done in the here and now.

    Democrats in Washington control Congress and the White House, two branches of government that have the power to preempt not only the Texas law, but also stop any copycat anti-abortion laws that other Republican states now race to pass.

    This is something Democratic lawmakers can do today — this very minute — to protect women’s health. They don’t have to wait eighteen more days until their summer vacation is over, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-CA, suggested Thursday. They can do it right now.

    And if they once again opt to cite filibuster rules they have the power to change or if they manufacture some other fake reason for inaction — then they are willfully choosing to take the side of the anti-abortion extremists.

    “No Matter Where She Lives”
    The reason the Democrats have the power to invalidate the Texas law goes back to the underpinnings of Roe v. Wade. That case legalizing abortion became the law of the land through court precedent — an inherently fragile state of affairs that has now allowed five unelected extremists on the Supreme Court to wake up one day and decide to ignore it. They can do so because Roe’s precedent has never been explicitly legislated as a federal statutory protection.

    Yes, you read that right: Since the Roe decision in 1973, Democrats in Washington have never bothered to codify the precedent as a federal law, even when they have held both houses of Congress and the presidency. (Though some Democratic states have passed their own abortion protections.)

    The same story has now unfolded during the first seven months of the Biden presidency, allowing Texas Republicans and Supreme Court extremists to take advantage of the negligence.

    Of course, Biden campaigned on a promise to pass such a federal law — and the good news is that he and his Democratic colleagues in Congress remain in a position to actually make that happen. There is already legislation introduced in Congress to do this. It is called the Women’s Health Protection Act, it already has 48 sponsors in the Senate, and its core precepts are wildly popular according to survey data.

    “[The bill] creates federal protections against state restrictions that fail to protect women’s health and intrude upon personal decision-making,” notes a description from the bill’s sponsor, Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. “It promotes and protects a woman’s individual constitutional rights, no matter where she lives.”

    This legislation would use federal authority to invalidate anti-abortion state laws. It makes clear no “state government shall enact or enforce any law, rule, regulation, standard, or other provision having the force and effect of law that conflicts with any provision of this act.”

    And yet as Republican legislators in states across the country have been passing laws to try to restrict abortion, Democrats didn’t even introduce the latest version of this bill until June, even though there have been versions of it going back to at least 2013. And then, after Democrats finally introduced it again, the legislation has been languishing in a committee — all while Democrats have been raising money off their promises to protect a woman’s right to choose.

    This bill doesn’t have to sit in a committee. Democrats can pass it — not next week, not next month, but today. Right now. And they could seek help from Republican senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, who have both said they support Roe and who have both humiliated themselves by previously insisting that the Republican Supreme Court nominees they’ve approved would not overturn Roe.

    No Excuses
    The arguments against passing the Women’s Health Protection Act are pathetic.

    Biden promised it, and forty-eight Senate Democrats are sponsors of the legislation. Avoiding this confrontation in order to appease two Democratic holdouts — Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania — is unacceptable.

    Likewise, citing arcane filibuster rules as reason for Democrats to not even have this fight is equally ridiculous.

    At a time when Republican legislators and judges are laying waste to the rules protecting women’s health, a change in Senate rules is the absolute least that can be done. Citing the filibuster as some sort of undebatable law of nature or immovable object is as absurd and insulting as pretending an unelected, fireable parliamentary adviser is the reason America can’t get a $15 minimum wage. You have to be either a #TeamBlue zombie, a pundit on the take, or a gullible moron to accept such obvious bullshit.

    Now sure, codifying Roe in federal law may not be a permanent solution. A new statute could be challenged in the courts and ultimately be overturned by the same Supreme Court that just allowed the Texas law. Similarly, if Republicans win back Congress and the White House, they could repeal it. One galaxy brain pundit today seemed to argue that this future possibility is reason enough for Democrats to do nothing today.

    But this circular logic is a form of learned helplessness that depicts anything Democrats could do as futile just because GOP extremists might later try to dismantle it. This is not merely dumb, it is deliberate dishonesty designed to let Democrats continue raising money and running campaigns on promises to protect abortion rights while they’re not actually doing anything to deliver on those promises. It lets Democrats pretend that the only things they can do are just over the horizon — after you give them your volunteer time and your money to help them win the next election and keep their cushy jobs in Washington.

    You can try to come up with inane, unsubstantiated Rube-Goldberg-machine theories blaming Ralph Nader or Susan Sarandon or Bernie Sanders or Jill Stein or anyone else for Democrats losing winnable presidential races, which then led to the Republican Supreme Court appointees who allowed a Texas law to stand.

    This kind of fever dream may make Democratic partisans feel good about themselves and shirk responsibility, but here’s the thing: the Democratic Party already won the elections necessary to take control of the governmental bodies that make laws and then deliver on their legislative promises. They have the power to enact a law protecting a woman’s right to choose — and if they still refuse to do that in the face of the Texas insanity, then they are complicit in the Gilead-ification of America.

    #134332
    waterfield
    Participant

    Congress cannot impose a speeding limit that applies uniformly across the country and it cannot-for the same constitutional reason-codify Roe v Wade uniformly across all states. We live in a Republic. Article I, section 8 of the Constitution defines the powers of the U.S. Congress. It grants some powers exclusively to Congress, such as legislation regarding immigration, bankruptcy, and currency. It is limited and what not specified is left to the states. The article above is bogus.

    #134333
    Billy_T
    Participant

    Waterfield,

    Actually, contrary to conventional wisdom, the founders granted themselves massive powers in their constitution. Article One, Section Eight gives sweeping powers to the Federal government, for better or worse. I’ve never understood how anyone can read those four pages and come away thinking it was written by Ron Paul. The anti-federalists lost the argument. We don’t go by the Articles of Confederation, etc.

    And, then there was the Civil War, and all those amendments after the Civil War. Like the 14th, which reads in part:

    Section 1. All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

    #134334
    Billy_T
    Participant

    While there are many sections of the Constitution that demonstrate that the Federal government does have the power to make national policy . . . these four are perhaps the most relevant:

    The Commerce Clause
    The General Welfare Clause
    The Necessary and Proper Clause
    The Equal Protection Clause

    Beyond all of that, in the philosophical realm, we need to decide. We need to choose. Do we want a nation, or do we not? Do we want to protect rights for every American, regardless of where they live within this nation, or not? If the answer is no, then we should be honest and break up, go our separate ways. Cuz a nation can’t function as a nation if the various states get to write rules that conflict with one another. There is no nation then. Why keep pretending?

    #134335
    Zooey
    Participant

    Congress cannot impose a speeding limit that applies uniformly across the country and it cannot-for the same constitutional reason-codify Roe v Wade uniformly across all states. We live in a Republic. Article I, section 8 of the Constitution defines the powers of the U.S. Congress. It grants some powers exclusively to Congress, such as legislation regarding immigration, bankruptcy, and currency. It is limited and what not specified is left to the states. The article above is bogus.

    I saw somebody else on the internet say that such a law would also be overturned on the basis of conflict with the 10th amendment, and a brief glance at that amendment seemed to line up with that opinion, but I dunno anything.

    If what you say is true, then the 48 Dem senators are co-sponsoring a doomed bill just to be able to go back home and say they are co-sponsoring a bill, is that about right? Seems that would explain why it’s just sitting in a committee rather than being voted on, since they can use it for campaign purposes, but if they actually vote on it, the law is ultimately doomed anyway. Do you agree with that?

    And, in your opinion, is there any way to codify abortion rights without a constitutional amendment? Or are we doomed to fighting this out state-by-state forever?

    #134338
    Billy_T
    Participant

    Zooey,

    What’s your take?

    Again, there is a huge difference between pre-Civil War American jurisprudence and post-Civil War. Amendments which came after it “nullify” the 10th for the most part (ironically), and the Tenther Movement is stuck in pre-1860 America, in my view.

    Hoping Waterfield responds, but would also like to hear your take. Not only regarding interpretation of the Constitution, but also what we should do?

    #134401
    Zooey
    Participant

    I don’t know, Billy. I don’t know much about the separation of powers. That’s why I asked W.

    As for what we should do, we should codify full healthcare for everybody, including women’s health, and the right to choose, and then we should improve sex education, and provide free birth control through the health care system, including local clinics that teens can access without appointments, etc. We know that works far better in lots of ways, and it’s the only thing that significantly reduces the number of abortions, if that’s truly one’s goal.

    But that’s probably not what you meant. You probably are asking me HOW we get there. And I know even less about that than I do the separation of powers. All I can offer is a bromide, like “Think globally, act locally.”

    Seems to me that if there was a clear pathway to leverage power to secure those rights, somebody smarter than me would have already organized it.

    #134402
    Billy_T
    Participant

    Agree with all of that, Zooey. What we should do, and how difficult it is to get there, etc.

    Major frustration for me: Europe clearly gets far better results on all the matters discussed here. They have better health care, for half the price. Lower infant mortality, lower birth-mother mortality. People there live longer, happier, healthier lives. Heck, they even have lower incidences of abortions and SDTs due to their far more open sex ed, etc. On pretty much every quality of life metric, they kick our butts. Yet our “leaders” refuse to move in their direction. Quite the opposite, of course.

    I know you know this. It also frustrates me that Europe is far from being “radical.” If only. They’ve had a mix of conservative and social democratic governance since WWII, but for too many Americans, they’re wild-eyed and “far left.” Ironically, social democrats there want to go much further and can’t seem to make that happen. They, too, are all too often jammed by conservatives.

    (Personally, I think social democratic reforms, even if implemented fully, fall well short of what the world and planet earth need. Martin Hagglund speaks brilliantly about all of this in his This Life.)

    Anyway, we’re so far from even half-way decent realities, and slipping further and further away by the hour . . . When I think about it, I hear the Stones “Paint it Black” again and again.

    At least the Rams ended their skid.

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