the superbowl (us, media, etc)…updated w/ nice long article

Expectations for the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams going into the 2021 season couldn’t have been much more different. Joe Burrow was coming off of a knee injury, and Zac Taylor had gone 6-25-1 in his first two seasons as an NFL head coach. Sportsbooks had the Bengals’ over/under for wins at 6.5. Only three teams — the New York Jets, Detroit Lions and Houston Texans — had a lower number.

The Rams, meanwhile, were in “Super Bowl or bust” mode on account of their Matthew Stafford trade. Sean McVay had produced a winning record in each of his first four seasons as head coach and made the playoffs three times. Their over/under for wins was 10.5.

On Feb. 13, the two teams will meet at SoFi Stadium for Super Bowl LVI. The Bengals are looking for their first Super Bowl title in franchise history. The Rams are hoping to take that one final step after their Super Bowl loss to the New England Patriots three years ago.

So how do the two teams match up? What are the key tactical factors that will make the difference between winning and losing? Below is an in-depth look combining X’s and O’s and analytics. Numbers are courtesy of TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.

Overall snapshot

Here’s how the two teams stack up over a 20-game sample (regular season and playoffs):

Bengals vs. Rams (overall)

TEAM	DVOA	WEIGHTED DVOA	POINT DIFFERENTIAL
Cincinnati Bengals	15th	11th	7th (+97)
Los Angeles Rams	3rd	2nd	6th (+117)

DVOA is an efficiency metric from Football Outsiders that compares a team’s performance to the league-wide average. Weighted DVOA puts less importance on games that took place earlier in the season in an attempt to reflect which teams trended up.

At first glance, the numbers don’t seem to add up. The Bengals and Rams are pretty similar in overall point differential. Why, then, do the Rams have such an edge in the other two columns? One big reason: schedule strength. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams’ schedule strength was middle of the pack (16th-toughest), while the Bengals had the NFL’s third-easiest schedule during the regular season. Of course, if ever there was a season to discount schedule strength, this was probably it, given the roster fluctuations from week to week with COVID-19.

It’s also worth noting that numbers above are for all 20 games, including Week 18 when the Bengals rested Burrow and a number of starters in a 21-16 loss to the Cleveland Browns.

The Bengals are 7-5 in one-score games and had only two losses that were by more than seven points. The Rams are 6-1 in one-score games and had four losses that were by more than seven points.

Bengals offense vs. Rams defense

TEAM	DVOA	WEIGHTED	EPA/DRIVE	SUCCESS RATE
Cincinnati Bengals	17th	10th	12th	19th
Los Angeles Rams	4th	3rd	10th	12th

EPA (Expected Points Added) per drive measures how teams perform relative to expectation. It’s easier to score a touchdown when the offense starts a drive at the opponents’ 20 than it is when the offense starts at its own 5. EPA accounts for the difference. Success rate measures the percentage of plays that produce a positive result, but it does not give additional weight to high-leverage plays. In other words, a six-yard carry on second-and-5 is treated the same as a 25-yard carry on second-and-5. Both are considered successful for the offense.

Depending on which metric you choose, the two sides here are either evenly matched or the Rams have an edge. The jump in weighted DVOA for the Bengals’ offense reflects that they were much better later in the year than in the beginning. If we isolate the Bengals’ EPA per drive to just the snaps when they had Burrow, they would rank ninth instead of 12th.

Rams offense vs. Bengals defense

TEAM	DVOA	WEIGHTED	EPA/DRIVE	SUCCESS RATE
Los Angeles Rams	7th	11th	6th	7th
Cincinnati Bengals	18th	23rd	12th	15th

The Bengals’ defense closed strong in the AFC Championship against the Kansas City Chiefs. But if we look at the bigger sample, the Rams have an advantage here. Having said that, turnovers can be the great equalizer. Los Angeles has turned the ball over on 12.6% of its offensive possessions, which ranks 19th. In three playoff games, that number has bumped up to 14.7%. The Bengals’ defense, meanwhile, has produced turnovers on 12.7% of their opponents’ drives, which is just above league average (11.5%).

Both teams have produced strong special-teams units. The Bengals rank fourth in special teams DVOA, while the Rams are fifth.

When the Bengals run the ball

If you’re a Bengals fan, you might be screaming, “No! Start somewhere else! Please! We’re begging you!” It’s not that the Bengals should never run the ball. It’s just that they should probably run the ball less and throw the ball more if they want to maximize their chances of winning.

The Bengals were a run-heavy offense for much of the season. From Weeks 1 to 14, they passed the ball just 51.1% of the time on early downs in neutral situations. That ranked 17th. Down the stretch, Zac Taylor decided to put the ball in Burrow’s hands. And he was rewarded for that decision. Do the Bengals have pass protection issues? Of course. But throwing on early downs can help. The defense has to respect the run and might have run-focused personnel on the field. In terms of EPA per play, the Bengals showed the eighth-biggest dropoff in the NFL going from early-down passes to early-down runs.

But in the AFC Championship, as CBS’ Tony Romo pointed out, the Bengals were once again run-heavy on early downs. They ran 22 times for 91 yards (4.1 YPC) on early downs. That included one 23-yard run. On the other 21 runs, the Bengals averaged 3.2 YPC. On early downs, they had a success rate of 31.8%. To put that into context, a 31.8% success rate would have ranked 32nd in the NFL if extended over the course of an entire season. Said more simply: The Bengals were (mostly) getting nothing out of their early-down runs. They were essentially wasting plays.

Taylor can’t be as conservative with his play-calling in this game, especially considering that the Bengals are unlikely to be efficient when they do run the ball.

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) focuses specifically on run-blocking by the offensive line and run-stuffing by the defensive line (not second-level and open-field yards).

Any way you slice it, it’s advantage Rams here. The Bengals have been mostly a mediocre to below average rushing team, while the Rams have been above average against the run defensively. If the Bengals go into this game expecting to be able to consistently handle the Rams up front in the run game, they’re probably going to end up disappointed.

Joe Mixon has been far and away the Bengals’ leading rusher with 1,395 yards on 344 carries. Among the 50 backs with at least 100 carries, Mixon ranks 36th in success rate (36.6%). Samaje Perine has added 248 yards on 56 carries. And if we remove kneel-downs, Burrow has 161 rushing yards on 37 attempts. He doesn’t rush often, but as we saw in the AFC Championship, Burrow is capable of picking up first downs (19 on the season) in high-leverage spots.

When the Bengals pass the ball

This is strength on strength and very well could be the matchup that determines which team is hoisting the Lombardi. Burrow ranks sixth in EPA per play through 19 starts. His superpower is accuracy. Next Gen Stats tracks completion percentage above expectation. It uses tracking data to look at the likelihood of a completion on every throw, based on factors like distance, location, receiver separation and QB pressure. It then compares a quarterback’s actual completion percentage to what’s expected. Burrow ranked first in completion percentage over expectation among all starters in the regular season. By that metric, he’s the most accurate quarterback in the NFL.

The Rams, meanwhile, rank fourth in DVOA against the pass.

Burrow has been at his best when facing man coverage. One of his greatest strengths is a willingness to throw into tight windows and give his receivers opportunities even if they’re not wide open. In the regular season, 19.2% of Burrow’s attempts were into tight windows. That was the second-highest rate among starting quarterbacks.

Perhaps the most notable splits are how Burrow performed against single-high safety coverages versus two-high safety coverages. He ranked third against single-high looks. When Burrow sees one-on-one opportunities on the outside, he takes them. But against two-high looks, he’s been more in the middle of the pack.

So how do those numbers align with what the Rams typically do on defense? Los Angeles has been a zone-heavy team all season. It’s played the third-lowest percentage (15.6%) of man coverage in the NFL. Playing more zone against the Bengals has been a smart strategy.

Here are the Rams’ most popular coverages on the season:

• Cover-3: A three-deep zone with four underneath defenders
• Cover-6: Split-safety zone coverage with Cover-2 to one side and Cover-4 to the other
• Cover-4: A four-deep zone with three underneath defenders
• Cover-1: Man coverage with a single-high safety

The Rams’ most popular coverage has been Cover-3. Though it’s technically zone coverage, it has a single high safety and creates one-on-ones on the outside. Burrow produced 0.15 EPA per play (seventh) against Cover-3 this season.

It would be no surprise to see the Rams lean on a heavy dose of Cover-6 and Cover-4 in this game. The split-safety zones can give them help over the top against Ja’Marr Chase. On the season, Burrow produced -0.05 EPA per play (22nd) when facing Cover-6 and Cover-4.

Bengals pass-catching options

PLAYER	YARDS	YARDS/ROUTE	RANK
Ja’Marr Chase	1,734	2.47	7th
Tee Higgins	1,300	2.17	10th
Tyler Boyd	890	1.39	66th
C.J. Uzomah	628	1.16	27th
Joe Mixon	420	1.14	21st

Chase, as a rookie, established himself as one of the NFL’s best wide receivers and ranked seventh in yards per route run. Tee Higgins was great in the AFC Championship and has been one of the NFL’s most efficient wide receivers all season. And Tyler Boyd has been a reliable option in the slot. C.J. Uzomah suffered a knee injury during the AFC Championship, and his status for this game is unclear. If Uzomah is out, the Bengals will lean on Drew Sample.

During the season, Burrow had 12 completions of 50+ yards. That’s more than any quarterback in at least the past 20 seasons. But the Rams were excellent against deep passes (defined by Football Outsiders as 16 yards or more from the line of scrimmage) during the regular season, ranking second in DVOA.

For Burrow to connect downfield, he’s going to need time. And on paper, the battle up front looks like arguably the game’s biggest mismatch.

Win rate is an ESPN metric that measures how often pressure is produced or how often protection holds up for at least 2.5 seconds. The Rams’ defense ranks first, while the Bengals’ offense ranks 30th.

Against the Chiefs (and at various times throughout the season), Burrow has been able to mitigate the Bengals’ offensive line issues with his ability to make spectacular escapes from pressure. Against the Chiefs, Burrow was able to pick up first downs with his legs on third-and-7, third-and-5 and third-and-6. On a couple of the scrambles, defensive tackle Chris Jones had him wrapped up, but Burrow was able to rip out of the tackle attempt. Keeping Burrow contained and tackling him when they get close has to be a priority for the Rams.

One of the reasons why it’s difficult to just put a spy on Burrow when he’s making plays with his legs is because defenses have to dedicate resources to doubling Chase while also providing help for Higgins and Boyd.

Divisional round, 10:01 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-7

Here, the Chiefs played “1 double 1”. The first number 1 in the call tells the defense that it is playing Cover-1 (man coverage with a single-high safety). “Double 1” tells the defense that it is bracketing the player wearing No. 1, which is Chase.

Often, when playing Cover-1, the defense will have a robber in the middle of the field to help on short/intermediate in-breaking routes and spy the quarterback.

But on this play, because the Chiefs were doubling Chase, they were left without a robber, and no one had eyes on Burrow at the second level of the defense.

Jones quickly disrupted the pocket and got close to Burrow, but Burrow was able to sidestep him, find an opening and explode into the secondary to pick up the first down.

With defenders plastered on their man assignments, no one was left to account for Burrow running.

Burrow is no Kyler Murray, but if Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris is worried about Burrow scrambling, he could call on a wrinkle he used against the Arizona Cardinals in the wild-card round. The Rams used the blitz to contain Murray. They brought an extra defender to clog running lanes and create one-on-ones for their talented pass rushers.

The Rams have blitzed 28.3% of the time this season — the league’s ninth-highest rate. And Morris has really turned up the heat on third downs. In the regular season, the Rams blitzed just 27% of the time on third downs. In their three playoff games, that number is all the way up to 51.7%.

Wild-card round, 10:13 remaining the third quarter, third-and-11

On third-and-11, the Rams lined up in a loaded front with Von Miller, Leonard Floyd and Greg Gaines to the offense’s right. The purpose of this front was to get the offensive line to slide its protection in that direction, which it did. On the backside, the left guard and left tackle had man protection on Aaron Donald and outside linebacker Justin Hollins.

In this type of protection, the running back would usually look to the linebacker in front of him and scan for other second-level defenders in case of a blitz before releasing on his route. The only linebacker in the box was Travin Howard (No. 32).

The Rams tried to get Gaines to occupy the center and have Floyd loop inside of him on the loaded side. On the backside, Donald looked to have a one-on-one but ended up getting doubled by the running back. Usually, when no second-level player rushes, the running back goes into his route, but here the back stayed in to help on Donald.

The offensive line did a good job of picking up the Rams’ defensive line game with Floyd. Donald quickly beat the guard before running over the running back. However, Miller bull-rushed a little too far inside, and Murray was quick enough to get to the edge and escape the pocket.

Because Murray had to step backward before breaking the pocket, Floyd was able to get the angle on him and chase him down. Murray chucked up a prayer that fell incomplete, but Floyd was in position to stop him from gaining yardage if he scrambled.

Burrow was able to get away from pressure against the Chiefs, but that wasn’t the case in the divisional round when he took nine sacks. The Rams’ pass rushers are athletic and bendy, and they are better equipped to chase down Burrow than some of the Chiefs were.

Burrow’s ability to make plays when protection breaks down will likely be a huge factor in this game.

One problem with bringing five pass rushers is that it could leave the secondary vulnerable, which is a major issue against the talented Bengals receiving corp.

On the same play detailed above, the Rams played a three-deep fire zone with the safety rotating down toward the three-receiver side.

The defense ended up squeezing the crosser from the number three receiver (counting from the outside in), leaving the number two receiver wide open down the seam. Luckily for the Rams, the pressure got to Murray before he was able to see the receiver getting open.

But they might not be so lucky against Burrow, who has been terrific (fifth in EPA per play) against the blitz this season.

The other factor Morris has to consider is that blitzing makes it tough to bracket receivers. The Rams could double Chase, but that would leave Higgins and Boyd in one-on-one situations. As we saw in the AFC Championship, Burrow is not afraid to go away from Chase if defenses are giving him extra attention. Higgins came up huge against the Chiefs with six catches for 103 yards.

When Morris wants to be aggressive, another option would be to have Jalen Ramsey line up over Chase and play him one-on-one so that they can keep a post safety in the middle of the field.

And it’s possible that Morris just dials it back and relies on four-man pass rushes so that he can commit seven players to coverage. With Donald (14 sacks), Floyd (10.5), Miller (7) and Gaines (5), the Rams have a strong group that should give Morris the option to blitz less often than he has throughout the playoffs.

When the Rams run the ball

The Rams ran the ball quite a bit in the NFC Championship, but they didn’t have much success, totaling 70 yards on 29 carries (2.4 YPC). On early downs, they ran 22 times for 54 yards (2.5 YPC). And the performance wasn’t fluky. The Rams have been mostly a mediocre rushing team all season.

The numbers suggest that the Rams’ run blocking has been good, but their backs haven’t created much on their own. On the other side, it’s a similar story. The Bengals’ defensive line has done a good job against the run, but once opposing backs get to the second level or the open field, they do damage.

Sony Michel is the Rams’ leading rusher with 923 yards on 232 carries (3.98 YPC). His 39.7% success rate ranks 25th out of the 50 backs who had at least 100 carries. Cam Akers returned to the Rams in Week 18. He’s shown some flashes but overall has just 154 yards on 59 carries (2.61 YPC) with a long run of 15. Akers also fumbled twice in the divisional round against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In the NFC Championship, Michel and Akers split time, with Michel logging 43 snaps compared to 30 for Akers.

Removing kneel-downs, Stafford has run 26 times for 101 yards and 12 first downs.

Against the Chiefs, the Bengals played with a lot of light fronts. The Chiefs were gashing them on the ground but didn’t commit to running the ball enough. If the Bengals’ defense struggles to defend the Rams’ passing attack and adjusts the way they did against the Chiefs, Sean McVay could see an opportunity to lean on the run game and go back to his roots with outside zone. The Bengals don’t have a lot of speed at the first two levels of their defense and have struggled to defend outside zone. In the regular season and the playoffs, they are the sixth-worst team in success rate against outside zone.

The most likely scenario is that McVay puts the ball in Stafford’s hands. But again, if the Bengals load up to stop that, the Rams’ run game could end up being a surprising factor.

When the Rams pass the ball

In his first season with the Rams, Stafford has produced the highest EPA per play of any quarterback in the NFL. Playoffs included, he’s completed 67.9% of his passes, averaged 8.3 YPA and thrown 47 touchdowns with 18 interceptions.

The trade for Stafford was essentially a two-year commitment (with the option for more). In year one, the Rams are in the Super Bowl. Safe to say, they have no regrets.

The Bengals’ pass defense is 20th in DVOA. But in the AFC Championship game, they showed they can clamp down. Cincinnati limited the Chiefs to three points on their final eight possessions. It was the worst second-half performance by a Chiefs offense (EPA per drive) since Andy Reid got there — a sample of 161 games!

The Bengals know their defense doesn’t have to be perfect. It just needs to be good enough to give Burrow a chance.

When opponents have played man coverage against Stafford, he’s lit them up. And when they’ve blitzed, they’ve gotten burned — often.

The numbers suggest the best strategy to contain the Rams’ passing game has been to play split-safety zone coverage.

The Bengals’ rate of playing zone coverage (65.3%) is almost exactly league average (65.9%).

Cincinnati’s greatest strength on defense might be a willingness to adjust based on the opponent. The Bengals have played more than 100 snaps of each of the following coverages:

• Cover-1: Man coverage with a single-high safety
• Cover-2: A two-deep zone with five underneath defenders
• Cover-3: A three-deep zone with four underneath defenders
• Cover-4: A four-deep zone with three underneath defenders
• Cover-6: Split-safety zone with Cover-2 to one side and Cover-4 to the other

The Bengals’ most popular coverage has been Cover-3. Stafford ranks fifth in EPA per play (0.18) against Cover-3. Cincinnati’s second most popular coverage has been Cover-1. Stafford has been the NFL’s best quarterback against Cover-1 (0.5 EPA per play). The difference between Stafford and the second-best QB against Cover-1 (which happens to be Burrow) is the same as the difference between Burrow and Jared Goff, who ranks 13th.

Said simply: It’s really, really hard to match up one-on-one in man coverage against Stafford and the Rams and not get burned. Incorporating pre-snap disguise and playing a high percentage of zone is probably the Bengals’ best bet.

Rams pass-catching options

PLAYER	YARDS	YARDS/ROUTE	RANK
Cooper Kupp	2,333	3.17	1st
Van Jefferson	881	1.35	72nd
Tyler Higbee	675	1.19	23rd
Odell Beckham Jr.	541	1.59	51st

Cooper Kupp has had an all-time season with 170 catches for 2,333 yards and 20 touchdowns through 20 games. He leads all wide receivers in yards per route run.

Van Jefferson has had a productive year, and Odell Beckham Jr. has come on strong in the playoffs. Tyler Higbee suffered a knee injury during the NFC Championship, and his status for the Super Bowl is up in the air. If he can’t go, it’ll be Kendall Blanton replacing him. Blanton had five catches for 57 yards in the NFC Championship.

According to ESPN’s win rate metric, the Rams have had the best pass-blocking line in the NFL. By pretty much any standard, it has been a top-10 unit.

Trey Hendrickson has been terrific for the Bengals with 16.5 sacks and 32 QB hits in 19 games. Sam Hubbard is second on the team with 10.5 sacks and 23 QB hits. B.J. Hill had the big interception in the AFC Championship, and D.J. Reader can be disruptive, although his strength is playing the run.

So how will the Rams attack the Bengals? The addition of Stafford has fundamentally changed McVay’s offense. They are very much a pass-first team now, but philosophically, McVay still applies the same principles he did when the Rams were a run-heavy, play-action team. The Rams don’t run a lot of different concepts with their dropback passing game. They just run them out of a lot of different looks. McVay also does a masterful job of sequencing the plays together.

Defending the Rams starts with defending Kupp. And doubling Kupp can be difficult because of how the Rams move him around. They have many ways of isolating Kupp and running him on choice routes. When he’s singled up and has a choice of where he wants to break, Kupp has been pretty much unguardable.

Divisional round, 10:01 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-7

On a critical third-and-7 in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship game, McVay called one of the Rams’ staple concepts: F Choice Stucko.

Kupp motioned into a stacked alignment with Beckham. Beckham ran a bench route over the top, and Kupp ran a choice route underneath. Kupp had a choice to break outside, inside or find the soft spot against zone. He was Stafford’s first read on this play. Beckham was his second read. And Blanton running a stick china route on the other side of the field was his third.

The 49ers defense was in Cover-1 robber (man coverage with a single-high safety and a robber in the short/intermediate part of the field). Linebacker Fred Warner was the robber, but he was mugged on the line of scrimmage away from Kupp and couldn’t drop in time to help on him.

Kupp read the slot corner’s leverage and broke inside. The coverage was decent, but Stafford was able to throw in the perfect spot for the completion. He hit Kupp in-stride, allowing him to break a tackle and take off for a 25-yard gain.

To complement this route, the Rams also have Kupp run a choice stutter route, in which he’ll fake a choice route before going vertical. Kupp scored on a choice stutter early in the fourth quarter.

The Rams like to attack the intermediate middle of the field with routes like crossers, digs, and posts. The Bengals did an effective job of taking away those routes against the Chiefs by dropping eight defenders and playing man coverage with two robbers.

Divisional round, 15:00 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-3  

On third-and-3, the Bengals had three defensive linemen, one linebacker, three safeties and four corners on the field. The third safety dropped deep, while Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell both played robber. Bates was the robber closer to the line of scrimmage, and Bell was the intermediate robber. Cornerback Eli Apple had Demarcus Robinson in man coverage to the bottom of the screen.

After the snap, Tyreek Hill ran a deep crosser, which Bell helped on. Robinson ran a shallow cross, so Bates drove on it. Travis Kelce ran a crosser behind it in the opposite direction.

Bates ended up covering Robinson in man, while Apple fell off of him and replaced him as the robber. As Apple fell off of him, he ran right into Kelce and ended up doubling him. The Bengals ended up with a double on both Kelce and Hill.

If you’re confused and staring at the image, imagine how Patrick Mahomes must have felt watching everything unfold from the pocket. The Bengals only rushed three, so Mahomes had plenty of time. But he couldn’t find anyone open, scrambled around and was eventually sacked.

Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo rushed three on 18 snaps against Mahomes (12 of which came in the second half). On those plays, Mahomes was 7-for-14 for 72 yards (5.1 YPA) and four sacks.

The Bengals probably won’t use as many three-man rushes against Stafford. But the point is they’re a difficult defense to prepare for because they don’t just do one thing.

Both staffs will go into this matchup with well thought-out game plans, but if the Super Bowl is anything like the AFC Championship, the winning team could be the one that is best able to adjust.