on the NFL’s rising viewership numbers

Media Circus: Experts on the NFL’s rising viewership numbers

Richard Deitsch

https://theathletic.com/675207/2018/11/26/media-circus-what-to-make-of-the-nfls-upward-trending-viewership-numbers/

One​ of​ the pieces​ I did​ for Sports Illustrated​ last​ year​ that drew unexpectedly large page views​​ was an examination of NFL television ratings at the end of the 2017 regular season. While the measurement of sports viewership remains impossible to accurately procure — sports has always been historically underrepresented because of out-of-home viewership — what companies such as Nielsen provide remains an interesting metric to discuss (and one media buyers use to purchase inventory).

What I tried to do with that piece was to examine the root causes behind football’s downward trend. For that, I paneled Ad Age senior editor Anthony Crupi and Sports Business Daily assistant managing editor Austin Karp, two of the foremost sports viewership experts in the country. I brought the duo back for The Athletic after Week 3 of this NFL season to get a handle on the NFL’s early-season viewership rise.

The rise has continued. As of Sunday morning, NFL broadcast windows were averaging 15.4 million viewers and a 9.1 household rating, up three percent versus this juncture in 2017 (14.9 million and 8.8 rating). The last two weeks have helped: The league said the three Thanksgiving Day games were up 14 percent in household ratings and +17 percent in viewership versus 2017. Week 11 games averaged 16.3 million viewers, an increase of nine percent versus Week 11 of last year.

As we hit Week 12, I reconvened Karp and Crupi for expanded thoughts to give readers of The Athletic some educated NFL viewership analysis on what to expect heading forward.

Cruipi: If assigning causality to any human behavior is a bit of a crap shoot — did I grab that second helping of pumpkin pie because it was delicious or because it was the very last piece and I wanted to get one over on my equally covetous brother-in-law (a Red Sox fan, no less)? Getting to the root of the NFL ratings question doesn’t require nearly as much philosophical pettifogging. In effectively doing away with any semblance of defensive play, the league has cleared the way for the sort of pass-happy theatrics that appeals to the sort of casual, fantasy-besotted fans who go a long way toward padding the weekly Nielsen stats. While this may be an unwelcome development for purists who believe football became incorrigibly soft when Art Donovan retired, the people who pay for the privilege of broadcasting NFL games certainly aren’t having any misgivings over the results.

Through the Thanksgiving Day games, the NFL is on pace to smash all its established records for most points, touchdowns and touchdown passes tallied in a single season. In handcuffing defenses, the Shield has all but conjured up the volant spirit of Don Coryell, which in turn has led to a staggering tally of 7,932 total points and 859 offensive touchdowns, of which 582 (68 percent) were secured through the air. (Numbers are prior to Sunday’s games). The aerial spectacle coincides with an improvement in the all-important TV ratings; per Nielsen, NFL broadcast windows are currently averaging 15.4 million viewers and a 9.1 household rating, up 3 percent versus the year-ago 14.9 million/8.8 household rating. The biggest gains have been generated in primetime, including ESPN’s Monday Night Football improving six percent (11.6 million viewers/7.0 HH rating vs 10.9 million /6.6.) over last year.

The increase in offensive scoring comes on the heels of the least productive season this decade. No fewer than a dozen squads are averaging at least 25 points per game. While the scoreboards have been lighting up from L.A. to Atlanta, games have managed to remain sufficiently competitive to keep everyone from adrenaline junkies to advertisers satisfied. Prior to Sunday’s games, 47 games had been decided by a field goal or under and with seven weeks to go before the playoff brackets are finalized, only 21 additional three-point margins were needed in order to break the record set in 1997.

Production is such that no fewer than four quarterbacks (Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger) are on pace to throw for 5,000 yards. Profligacy aside, there’s a case to be made for whatever obscure blend of good fortune and conditioning has kept most of the league’s top stars active throughout the season. While injuries are an inevitable byproduct of a violent sport—lower leg fractures and ligament damage alone have conspired to bench the likes of Alex Smith, Earl Thomas, Jay Ajayi and Jimmy Garoppolo—this season’s devastation hasn’t eliminated nearly as many marquee players.

Lastly, the NFL has managed to sidestep the political ouroboros that made the last two seasons a source of intrigue for everyone from hack political cartoonists to the inhabitant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. When confronted with the NFL’s resurgent ratings and financial success (the league’s broadcast partners this year are on track to rake in nearly $5 billion in regular-season, in-game advertising revenue), the snappy Beltway patter really starts to dry up. If nothing else, this eliminates much of the False Narratives that have cluttered up the national conversation about the NFL, while denying the league’s most vocal detractors any incendiary material. In other words, Donald Trump hasn’t tweeted about the NFL since Sept. 9.

Karp: Going into this season, I didn’t know what to expect with NFL ratings. There were so many things that contributed to declines the last two seasons it was very bold for anyone to think things would begin to turn around. But with 12 weeks in the books, it looks like 2018 is going to be a very positive season for the NFL. The matchups for network partners are better this year, so kudos to Howard Katz and his scheduling team at the network for the hard work there. There has also been some nice cross-flexing on Sunday afternoons, and fans have been seen fewer unappealing national-window matchups, even if that has meant a few NFC matchups on CBS. But that’s OK. The rising tide lifts all boats here.

The quarterback star power is back this year after losing some of that “dazzle” in the years after Peyton Manning and Brett Favre retired. Hopefully, some of these names can stick around as elite (and healthy) for years to come. Meanwhile, some people loved the Chiefs-Rams “Monday Night Football” shootout, and some people decried it as the death of defense in the NFL. Regardless, it was all the talk in NFL circles for days, and that creates buzz and momentum for everyone.

Looking forward, I expect NFL TV partners to maintain enough momentum to keep the viewership gains they’ve seen to date. Fox and CBS obviously have more flexibility with Sunday afternoons and can get nice matchups. For Sunday nights, the NFL has already flexed Weeks 7, 11, 13 and 14 to make sure NBC gets better matchups. There was no “SNF” flexing in those weeks last season. Fox also has better Thursday night matchups coming up, including Saints-Cowboys in Week 13 and Chargers-Chiefs for its final “TNF” game in Week 15. I’m not sure ESPN will get an audience approaching Chiefs-Rams from Week 11, but Vikings-Seahawks in Week 14 and Saints-Panthers in Week 15 figure to have playoff implications. And after the New Year, I expect NFL games to have dominant placement once again among the top 100 shows across all of TV for 2018.

Some additional NFL viewership notes:

Here are the six-most-watched games for 2018 (with streaming included):

Dallas-Washington, Thanksgiving (Fox): 30.8 million viewers.
Green Bay-New England, Week 9 (NBC): 24.1 million.
Dallas-Carolina, Week 1 (Fox): 23.3 million.
Chicago-Green Bay, Week 1 (NBC): 22.5 million.
Dallas-Seattle, Week 3 (Fox): 22.2 million.
Rams-Saints, Week 9 (Fox): 22.1 million.

A great stat from Sports Media Watch: Only four non-NFL sporting events this decade have had a bigger audience than the mega-viewership for the Dallas-Washington Thanksgiving Day game. They include Game 7 of the 2016 World Series (40.1 million); Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals (31.0 million); the 2015 college football national championship (34.1 million) and the 2009 college football national championship (30.8 million).