Hammond: The Rams’ future on defense and how the draft might impact it

The Rams’ future on defense and how the draft might impact it

Rich Hammond Jan 8

https://theathletic.com/1519584/2020/01/08/the-rams-future-on-defense-and-how-the-draft-might-impact-it/?=twittered

The Rams’ decision not to retain defensive coordinator Wade Phillips — coupled with special-teams coordinator John Fassel’s move to Dallas — will result in a major culture change in the locker room.

Phillips and Fassel were good-humored and unpretentious, and they were beloved in their respective meeting rooms. Based on that alone, coach Sean McVay faces two big decisions as he attempts to replace two of his top deputies. Of course, the changes will have even greater ramifications on the field, particularly on defense.

McVay is on the clock. The Rams already have spent time evaluating potential draft picks, but a new defensive coordinator will have different ideas about those prospects, with some being a better fit than others in whatever type of scheme the Rams run in 2020. The scouting combine is in six weeks, so the Rams would be wise to have a new coordinator in place by then.

It’s very possible — given the holes that would be created by the free-agency departures of lineman Michael Brockers and linebackers Dante Fowler and Cory Littleton — that the Rams will use a lot of their draft capital on defense. The Rams do not have a first-round pick (which was sent to Jacksonville in the Jalen Ramsey trade), and they are scheduled to pick 20th in each round.

Two days after the Rams’ season finale, and a week before Phillips’ official departure, general manager Les Snead was asked about the possibility of a change at defensive coordinator and how it might impact the team’s draft preparation. His answer underscored the importance of a speedy transition.

“A particular type of player may be more valuable in one scheme than the other,” Snead said, “and then also in your draft preparation, some players now fit, some don’t. So I think when you go through that you’ve got to get on the same page very quickly in terms of re-signing — or not — your own, acquiring other veteran players via trade free agency and then ultimately drafting.”

The Rams had run a 4-3 scheme under Phillips’ arrival in 2017. Phillips transitioned them to a 3-4 look, took advantage of the versatility of Aaron Donald and Brockers by moving them all around the line, and made annual changes at linebacker seemingly in constant search of the best fit.

Phillips also took the defense in several different directions. Midway through the 2018 season, he shifted primarily to a zone look when it seemed to best fit the style of his cornerbacks. Then midway through 2019, when Ramsey replaced Marcus Peters, the Rams went back to a man-press attack.

Point being, Phillips was the Rams’ defensive identity. McVay certainly had input, but in 2017, when the then-30-year-old rookie coach hired his 69-year-old coordinator, it came with an implicit understanding: McVay ran the offense and Phillips ran the defense. McVay was often seen sitting on a bucket, while the Rams’ defense was on the field, reviewing the just-concluded offensive series on a computer tablet.

Now, all of that seems to be changing. McVay, entering his fourth year, is reshaping his staff. Those with knowledge of the situation describe it this way: McVay is a different coach now, requiring different things from his assistants, and he intends to change his staff to reflect that.

The most impactful change will be on defense, and the Rams should act quickly in order to get their scheme and style in place and then draft accordingly. (They also can reshape the defense via free agency, but given the tightness of their salary-cap structure, the draft is more realistic.)

First, the Rams must determine whether they will stay with their current 3-4 look or switch back to a 4-3.
The Rams’ pending unrestricted free agents are Brockers, Fowler, Littleton, linebacker Bryce Hager and safety Marqui Christian, all of whom were at least part-time starters. The pending restricted free agents are lineman Morgan Fox, linebacker Josh Carraway and cornerback Donte Deayon.

So while the Rams face the possibility of some high-profile departures on defense, they also retain solid depth. The issue becomes whether to continue to utilize those players’ skills in a 3-4 look or transition to a 4-3.

The following is a breakdown of the Rams’ options, given what they’re bringing back and the potential to add/upgrade this offseason, particularly through the draft.

Stay with the 3-4

Obviously, this is easier because it’s only necessary to fill holes. That could include one defensive end (Brockers), one inside linebacker (Littleton) and one outside linebacker (Fowler). Given the Rams’ salary-cap structure and availability, it’s safest to bet that they’ll only be able to retain one of those players (it’s also possible that they won’t re-sign any of them and will go for a total reboot of the front seven).

Given all the factors, it’s probably best for the Rams to use their initial draft pick (No. 52 overall) on an edge rusher to replace Fowler, with the assumption that he will get a hefty, multiyear contract from another team when free agency opens in March.

Matthews is set to return and enter the second and final year of his contract, but he (at best) had a mixed 2019 season at age 33. Ebukam is talented but needs to show more consistency as a three-down linebacker. Okoronkwo has plenty of raw skill but very little experience, and it’s difficult to project that he’s ready for a larger role.

It just so happens that, in the latest top 100 draft board compiled by Dane Brugler of The Athletic, a small pool of edge rushers sit in the mid-50s. That includes Florida’s Jonathan Greenard, Tennessee’s Darrell Taylor, Auburn’s Marlon Davidson and Michigan’s Josh Uche. There is, of course, no predicting how the first 51 picks will go, but the Rams would appear to have some options for edge rushers there.

Brockers could be replaced internally or through free agency. That spot seems less critical, given the dominance of Donald and the emergence of Joseph-Day as a playmaker up front.

In both scenarios, the Rams are fairly set in the secondary, with Ramsey, Hill, Robey-Coleman, Williams and Long at cornerback, and Johnson, Weddle and Rapp at safety. Even if, as seems very possible, Weddle does not return in 2020, Rapp seems ready to slide into a starter role. But if Christian, a valuable, versatile safety, does not return, the Rams certainly would want to address their depth at that position in the second or third round (where they are likely to receive an end-of-round compensatory pick).

Move to a 4-3 front

This is more difficult because it involves projecting which players might be able to shift to new spots.

Donald is the easiest. He can play anywhere: end, tackle and probably even safety or punter, should the need arise. In this scenario, the Rams are looking good in the interior, with Donald, Joseph-Day, Gaines and Smart all able to hold down inside spots. Brockers almost certainly would be expendable.

But who would contribute at the 4-3 end spots? A few of the Rams’ current linebackers/edge rushers had experience in college with a hand in the ground as a defensive end, but how many of them would be able to battle bulky NFL offensive tackles in a 4-3 look?

Matthews almost certainly would stay at outside linebacker, and in this scenario, Littleton might return and shift from inside to outside, with perhaps Kiser being ready to take over in the middle. Reeder, Howard and Young also present good options.

But then back to the defensive end spots. Ebukam, Lawler and Okoronkwo theoretically could be options, but do any of them inspire tremendous confidence? Before Phillips arrived, under Gregg Williams, Donald lined up everywhere, even on the edge, so clearly he could be used in many ways, but the Rams would have to do some serious addition here.

It could be done if they wanted to use a lot of their draft capital. Brugler’s top 100 includes edge rushers in 14 of the first 82 spots. He seems to find more depth there than at any other position, with the possible exception of cornerback, and that’s not an area of need for the Rams.

Which way will the Rams go? If, in choosing a new defensive coordinator, they promote current linebackers coach Joe Barry or cornerbacks coach Aubrey Pleasant, remaining a 3-4 seems more likely. An outside hire — Kris Richard? — would be a wild card.

Regardless, the next coordinator would be wise to heed the words of a wise old coach, who regularly preaches that a coordinator should “make his scheme fit his players, not make his players fit his scheme.”

That coach? Wade Phillips.