draft hit/bust percentage

RamBill wrote:

Former Redskins and Texans general manager/NFL analyst Charley Casserly conducted a 10-year study that concluded round-by-round percentages of draft picks developing into “Successful” players. The study was done through the use of his personal scouting reports, analyzing others, watching game-tape, and “Numerous interviews with coaches and personnel people in the NFL.” Casserly defined “Successful, as a player developing into a starter within four years of being drafted.”

If you take Charley Casserly’s numbers on the percentage of players drafted by round who become successful in the NFL….with Successful defined as a player developing into a starter within four years of being drafted.” ….roughly 70% of players drafted are NOT successful. That number could vary by year and you could quibble with his definition, but an overwhelming majority of drafted players are unsuccessful EVERY year. The hardest part about this is coming up with a definition of success. What if a guy is a core special teams player on a team after 4 years. He’s not a starter but a valuable contributor to a team. He would be counted as a bust in Casserly’s definition.

Here are Casserly’s Numbers

Casserly found that First-round draft picks have a 75% chance of success. Second-rounders, 50%. Third-rounders, 30%. Fourth-rounders, 25%. Fifth-rounders, 20%. Sixth-rounders, 9% and Seventh-rounders, 5%.

Bill Polian has said that the very best GM’s get it right a little more than 50% of the time.

No matter how you define it, the majority drafted every year doesn’t make it. That gets forgotten this time of year.