an edgy topic: outside pass rush?

How much production can the Rams expect at outside linebacker in 2019?

Vinny Bonsignore and Rich Hammond

https://theathletic.com/989981/2019/05/22/how-much-production-can-the-rams-expect-at-outside-linebacker-in-2019/

The Rams face an interesting situation at linebacker, particularly outside linebacker, where they hope youngsters take decisive steps next season. But while the opportunity seemingly is there for Dante Fowler Jr., Samson Ebukam and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo to solidify the outside for the next few years, it’s easy to envision a scenario in which the Rams might have to look to next year’s draft and free-agent classes, or the trade market, for more dependable options.

Fowler, Ebukam and Okoronkwo have youth and enticing skill sets. But there’s a reason the Jacksonville Jaguars traded Fowler, the third pick in the 2015 draft, to the Rams last year and why Ebukam and Okoronkwo were third-day selections in their respective drafts. They have potential, but they’re not sure things.

The Rams must cobble together enough production for this to be a dependable, viable component of their defense. So here’s the question: What can the Rams expect from their outside linebackers in 2019?

Vinny Bonsignore

The Rams were 15th in the NFL last year with 41 sacks but did create 223 quarterback hurries, according to Pro Football Focus. Six sacks came from outside linebackers: Samson Ebukam had three, Fowler had two (in eight games) and Matt Longacre, who is no longer on the team, had one. Those three players accounted for 54 of the 223 hurries. Ebukam had 24, second-best on the team, and Fowler had 20 with the Rams and seven with the Jaguars.

Aaron Donald alone had 20.5 sacks and 68 hurries. There is no reason to think Donald will take a decided step back from that production, but it’s presumptuous to expect him to match it. So it’s imperative for the Rams to get more production around him, either to offset any drop Donald experiences or to complement his status quo (or improvement).

Ideally, they’ll find help at outside linebacker, a position Donald greatly helps by occupying so many double-teams and creating so many one-on-one matchups for the teammates flanking him.

Can the Rams confidently count on Fowler and Ebukam to take big steps forward to create a more ominous rush off the edge? Will Okoronkwo emerge as a rush specialist after missing most of his rookie year with a broken foot? Can Morgan Fox, who the Rams had high hopes for heading into last season, rebound from the season-ending knee injury he suffered during OTAs last year? And does Clay Matthews, signed as a free agent, have enough left in the tank to provide pass-rush pressure while being deployed at various spots on the field?

Among edge players, Fowler graded as the 43rd-ranked pass-rusher last year, according to Pro Football Focus, while Ebukam was 59th and Matthews 69th.

The pressure is on Fowler to emerge as a more consistent, productive player. He flashed at various times after arriving in Los Angeles last November — the pressure he got on New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees in the NFC Championship Game forced the overtime interception that led to Greg Zuerlein’s game-winning field goal.

Now Fowler, who the Rams signed to a one-year, $14 million contract last March, has to do it more frequently. His next payday depends on it, and the Rams’ defense would certainly benefit from it. Given the favorable matchups he’ll get playing a full year alongside Donald, it’s reasonable to expect eight to 10 sacks and 30 to 35 quarterback hurries from Fowler in 2019.

Ebukam made strides last year, his first as a starter, in all phases of the game and the tools are there for him to develop into a viable pass-rusher. It’s definitely within reason to expect him to generate six quarterback sacks and 25 to 30 hurries.

As for Matthews, who had four sacks and 19 hurries last year with Green Bay, the added motivation of being discarded by the Packers and returning home to Southern California to play on a championship-caliber team should give him something to prove. The added benefit of playing under Wade Phillips, a master at creating advantageous matchups, and alongside Donald, the most dominant defensive lineman in the NFL, should give Matthews plenty of chances to shine. Provided he stays healthy, it’s reasonable to expect five sacks and 25 hurries.

If the Rams can get 18 to 20 sacks from their three primary outside linebackers, plus 70 to 80 quarterback hurries, that would represent a significant improvement.

Rich Hammond

A lot of this will hinge on Dante Fowler Jr., and that’s a good thing for the Rams. Fowler seemed a little lost, both inside and outside of the football sphere, when he arrived in the Rams’ locker room last season after a trade with Jacksonville. The former No. 3 overall pick had lost his job with the Jaguars and badly needed a reboot.

From the time of his arrival in L.A., Fowler talked about being viewed as a three-down player, not just as a third-down pass-rusher. For the most part, he lived up to that in his half-season with the Rams, as he didn’t look lost in any aspect of the game. He did tend to vanish at times and splash in others, so consistency will be key, but the Rams did the perfect thing by signing him to a one-year contract. Fowler had eight sacks with the Jaguars in 2017. I think he can get to 10 in 2019.

This is a prove-it year for Fowler, and a full offseason of acclimation should help. The Rams are going to need him. This defense is all about Aaron Donald. In 2018, Donald got inside help from nose tackle Ndamukong Suh, who also had consistency issues but always drew attention from offensive linemen. If the Rams are serious about playing rookie Greg Gaines at nose tackle, he’s not going to provide the same level of help for Donald, at least not immediately. That’s why they will need Fowler as a disruptive force on the outside.

I’m less certain what the Rams are thinking at the other outside linebacker spot.

In 2017 and 2018, they invested draft picks in Samson Ebukam and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, and both players have potential, but then in March, they signed veteran Clay Matthews, who told reporters this week that he will play outside linebacker on first and second downs. So what does that mean for Ebukam and Okoronkwo, and even for Morgan Fox, who showed promise before a major knee injury?

Yes, there will be a rotation, and injuries always happen. It doesn’t necessarily mean the two young guys will be buried. I’m just not sure about Matthews. The lure of bringing in an L.A. native, former All-Pro, ex-Pro Bowler and Super Bowl champion is obvious, but Matthews just turned 33 and his production is falling off. Matthews provides an upgrade when it comes to pass coverage, but can the same be said of his pass-rushing skills at this point in his career? Matthews had 3.5 sacks last season; it’s tough to see him exceeding that in 2019.

When Matthews signed, I wondered whether the plan was to move him inside. I’m still unclear about why that isn’t the plan. Presumably, Matthews will move inside on third downs, and that’s probably where and when he will be most effective. But what about first and second down?

The Rams seem to think Cory Littleton and Micah Kiser can handle things inside, but there’s little depth behind them (plus, Kiser was limited to special-teams duty in 2018). Perhaps, once the Rams get a longer look at all this, they will think about Matthews going inside. Ebukam, Okoronkwo and Fox also could force that issue if they play well.