https://www.currentaffairs.org/2020/03/what-the-stakes-are/?fbclid=IwAR2W1m2bTUVPbyByRkbuGHpMrbZaVE3LDNzHHapr8KDkC8nzc-4UnfpbxtA

Nathan J. Robinson
filed 03 March 2020 in 2020 ELECTION
I feel like I’m going crazy. I have a pit of terror in my stomach that never goes away. I am stressed and afraid at every moment.

To me, a set of facts about the world is difficult to deny:

If Donald Trump is reelected in November, very bad things will happen to a large number of people. Climate change will worsen. The brutalization of immigrants will escalate, with dementia patients and diabetics deported to their deaths. Workplace safety and labor protections will be gutted. Public assets from the national parks to the postal service will be sold off to corporations. A global arms race will intensify, possibly with civilization-ending weapons placed in outer space, waiting to destroy us at a moment’s notice.
To stop these things from happening, we have exactly one chance on exactly one day: Nov. 3, 2020. On that day, something extremely difficult must be done: well over 60 million people must be motivated enough to put aside whatever else they are doing in their lives in order to go to polling stations and cast ballots.
Donald Trump will do whatever it possibly takes to prevent this from happening. He has a colossal amount of money. He is ruthless. He will say anything. Do anything. He will attack candidates from the left if he has to. He will mock their physical appearance. He will lie about them shamelessly. And he is the most powerful man in the world. Trump has the triple advantages of incumbency, low unemployment, and a decent approval rating. It will be incredibly difficult for anyone to beat him.
The Democratic party “establishment,” meaning the people who have been in leadership positions in the party, does not actually understand Trump. They do not see why his message is appealing. They don’t understand how talented he is. They think he is stupid. They don’t know why he thrives, and they don’t understand why they’re failing to effectively oppose him. When his approval rating rises, it mystifies them. When nobody comes to their rallies, they don’t know why. They didn’t get what was going on in 2016, when their own message was totally out-of-touch with ordinary people’s concerns. They will not admit that his State of The Union address was terrifyingly effective. They think that by pointing out that Trump is a liar and a cad, they can hurt him.
Even in a concerningly out-of-touch and inept party, Joe Biden stands out as uniquely out of touch and inept. It’s not just that he seems mentally not-that-with-it, but that he fundamentally can’t organize people. He certainly can’t inspire them. In fact, Biden’s political instincts are atrocious: he constantly told Iowa voters to “go vote for someone else,” and 85% of them did. He tells millennials he has “no empathy” for them. He promises no change. He is a serial liar who fabricates absurd details about his life story, like fictitious arrests and a history of civil rights activism.
The only other Democratic candidate than Joe Biden who has a viable chance at the Democratic nomination is Bernie Sanders. This is almost universally accepted.
Between the two of them, Bernie Sanders is the only one with even a chance of beating Trump. As in 2016, Bernie is different from other Democrats in that he knows how to speak to Trump’s own voters. Not only does he beat Trump consistently in head-to-head polling, but he offers ordinary people an ambitious social democratic agenda that is designed to deal with their real-world problems. He has a decades-long record of fighting hard for them to get healthcare, decent wages, and family leave. He has waged an often lonely struggle on behalf of those whose interests are too frequently ignored in Washington, even taking on the Obama administration over cuts to Social Security. When Bernie tells working people he is in their corner, they can believe him, because he has acted on the same clear set of values for decades. Plus, Bernie’s supporters are motivated. They get out and knock doors for him in the cold. They will do whatever it takes for him. (And on the flipside, if Joe Biden was nominated, millions of them would probably not only decline to put in the same level of organizing energy, but would simply stay home, unwilling to assist a candidate who has made it clear he has no empathy for them.)
Many wealthy and powerful Democrats will do whatever it takes to stop Bernie Sanders from being the nominee. This means that they will do whatever it takes to make sure that Joe Biden is the nominee. Already, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have dropped out and thrown their support behind Biden. Barack Obama has apparently “sent the signal” to Democrats that they need to come together behind Biden. Some Democrats even appear to be funneling money to supporting Elizabeth Warren’s campaign, so that she can continue to siphon enough votes away from Bernie Sanders to keep him from winning the nomination.
If these Democrats succeed in stopping Bernie, perhaps through a contested convention in which superdelegates override the plurality vote, and they put the feeble and uninspiring Biden at the top of the ticket, it will be an absolute calamity. Bernie’s supporters, many of whom already dislike the party for working hard to stop Bernie in 2016 and the incredibly fishy Iowa caucus shenanigans, will simply give up on the Democrats. Millennials will leave the party in droves, feeling that their votes don’t matter. Some will probably support a third party candidacy. Others will argue that in the interests of pragmatism, they should still vote for a dishonest and weak candidate who says he has no empathy for them. Their appeals will mostly fail. The party will be riven with bitter conflict. Biden will have no clear message, no strategy. He will perform embarrassingly in debates with Trump, forgetting his words and seeming to wonder why he is even on the stage. (He will also have no good explanation for what his son Hunter was doing for that Ukranian gas company, which will be the subject of constant discussion.) Trump, being a bully, will seize his advantage and relentlessly mock Biden’s performance. Trump will (as he has before) talk a lot about how Sanders was “robbed” by a “rigged” primary, delegitimize Biden’s nomination, and stoke the intra-party conflict. Biden will look dazed and confused on Election Night, as Democrats wonder yet again how they managed to lose to Donald Trump of all people.
If Bernie is nominated, things will go differently, though we do not yet know quite how. Trump’s propaganda machine will try to brand Sanders a communist who hates America. Will this work? It is not clear. Sanders has been an open socialist in the public eye for a long time without it affecting his popularity, but the war that is waged against him will be relentless. And, of course, liberals might not pitch in to help Sanders. Many of them repeat right-wing talking points about him already, scaring people by implying Sanders wants to leave them uninsured. Sanders and his army of organizers will do their damndest to expose Trump for the fraud he is, to unite working-class people behind a candidacy that truly speaks to their interests, and behind an ambitious agenda for single-payer healthcare, a comprehensive climate plan, a living wage, and an end to the indentured servitude of student debt. Will they succeed? This I do not know. Everything else here seems clear as day to me. But how exactly a Sanders-Trump race will play out is mystifying indeed. There are strong reasons to believe Sanders will win, like his strong fundraising in Obama-Trump swing counties, voters’ high assessments of his honesty and credibility, his declining to antagonize conservatives on some cultural issues and ability to speak to conservative audiences, and of course, all of the actual polls. But I have never thought that it was certain Sanders will beat Trump. What I think is that it is certain any other Democrat will lose.
I run all these facts through my head all day, every day. If Trump gets reelected, untold horrors will be released. Unless Sanders prevails, Trump will get reelected. Therefore Sanders must prevail. We must do everything possible to get Sanders the nomination. There is no alternative.

This same reasoning seemed just as obvious to me in 2016, when Democrats didn’t notice that nominating Hillary Clinton was a catastrophic blunder, and proceeded to lose to Donald Trump, ignoring the warnings of people like me and Michael Moore. And when I say I feel like I’m “going crazy,” it’s because it’s really hard for me to believe that after all these years, the lessons have still not been learned. “Oh my God,” I think. “They’re really going to do it again. They’re still not going to nominate Bernie. They’re going to put up another establishment candidate, this time an even weaker one who doesn’t even have the promise of ‘historic change’ that Hillary would have represented.” They’re literally going to fight Bernie to the death, even if it very obviously would result in the suicide of the Democratic Party as an institution.

It’s kind of hard to believe that this is really what’s happening. But it is! They’d rather nominate Joe Biden and have him lose to Trump than let Bernie try something different and novel. Hindsight should be 2020: have we really not realized that Bernie has a special ability to bring people together? Have you seen his rallies? Have you watched his campaign ads? This guy can make people cry. People would walk through fire for Bernie. Why do you think that is? It’s because Bernie makes them feel cared about (or, in the words of one nonvoting felon, “he’s the only one who thinks I’m a person”). He makes them feel less alone. He makes them feel part of something beautiful, something exciting, something that might actually change things for the better. Bernie can take people who feel alienated and uninterested in politics, and he can make them believe that a better world is possible.

It’s so weird to me that people don’t get this. Do they really believe the idiotic attacks on Bernie’s “radicalism”? Look at Bernie’s agenda: a national health insurance plan, of the kind that exists successfully all over the world. A giant ambitious climate investment plan, of the kind that we absolutely need if we are going to save the earth because this is a fucking emergency. A living wage that allows people to actually afford to pay their rent and feed themselves. What is the problem here? Why are people like Barack Obama and Beto O’Rourke prepared to destroy the Democratic Party and put the entire future of the planet at risk in order to stop this? What exactly is the threat that Bernie poses?

Even at his most ambitious, Sanders’ plans resemble things that exist today in many European countries, like making college education free the same way we make high school free, or having the government fund ambulance services just as we have government fire departments. And the plans are obviously not going to be implemented in their most ambitious form—everything gets watered down through the legislative process. Whatever changes Bernie could possibly bring about would be pretty modest and inadequate, and even Bernie-skeptic Paul Krugman admits Bernie poses no threat to the economy. The Wall Street Journal, in its opinion section, treats Bernie as an insane socialist radical bent on turning America into Venezuela. But in its news section, where they have to tell business-owners the truth, they admit that the changes he would bring are modest, like making CEO pay more reasonable, making it easier to unionize, boosting the minimum wage, lowering drug prices, legalizing marijuana, letting farmers fix their own farm equipment, and letting post offices offer banking services. As Matt Yglesias notes, Bernie Sanders is nothing to fear: he’s relatively moderate and does well in elections. During his time as a city mayor he proved himself to be a competent and progressive executive.

So why do people freak out about him? Why, when he makes the entirely correct point that the Cuban government teaching children to read was good but its authoritarianism is bad, do people accuse him of sympathy for Castro’s repression, as if we should be incapable of holding two ideas in our heads at the same time? (Likewise, the Chinese government’s poverty-reduction is positive while its massive ethnic detention camps are very, very bad.) Why do people suggest Medicare For All is fiscally irresponsible when it’s very clear that it will save people money and prevent tens of thousands of people from dying every year? Why, when Bernie has been on the right side of history from every issue from gay rights to the Iraq War, do people treat him as insane and lacking judgment? Why are people like Obama willing to risk destroying the party and imperiling the earth in order to keep this man from being president?

Forget 1972
The charitable answer, and the one they would probably give themselves, is that do not share my view of point #7 on my above list. They simply do not think Bernie is “electable.” They think he would lose to Donald Trump, that because he is too “far left” he would be the equivalent of George McGovern in 1972, and would lose in a landslide. They think he would hurt the prospects of “down ballot” Democrats, with Democratic members of Congress in conservative districts being forced to share the ticket with a socialist. They will insist that it is not Bernie’s agenda that they despise. They simply believe he threatens the party. He must be stopped at all costs in order to save democracy. I think many Democrats have probably convinced themselves of this, which is why some have been willing to entertain the prospect of nominating Mike Bloomberg to stop Sanders. If it takes a racist, sexist, transphobic Republican to save the party, so be it. Better victory with Bloomberg than defeat with Bernie.

The fact that many high-up people in the Democratic party think this way is frightening. Because if they are completely convinced that Bernie can’t beat Trump, they’re not going to step aside at any point and let him be the nominee. They will fight him to the bitter end, because they will tell themselves that in doing so they are being pragmatic. If their actions result in tearing the party apart through a disastrous brokered convention, they will still insist that their actions were right, because they think anything that stops Bernie has to be done. Yes, even if that means overriding the popular vote with superdelegates.

In order to get people who think this way to stop trying to destroy Bernie’s candidacy, we would need to convince them that they are wrong about the electability thing. They have an absolute conviction that “a candidate too far to the left cannot win,” therefore they must stop a candidate too far to the left from getting the nomination. If this means getting Elizabeth Warren to stay in and siphon away some Bernie votes, they will implore her to stay in. If it means bribing Amy and Pete with promises of cabinet posts, they will do that. I am sure many people have been on the phone to Barack Obama begging him to step up and endorse Joe Biden in order to “save the party.” I would not be surprised if Obama did just that if Biden has an even passable Super Tuesday result.

But the theory of politics that drives this conviction is delusional. The idea that “a far left candidate cannot win” is ingrained as part of the prevailing ideology. People believe it to their core. Voters are on an ideological spectrum, and you’ve got to appeal to the “median” voter in order to win. Go too far toward one end of the spectrum, and you lose. This is the rationale that many “moderate” candidates give for trying to sound sort of like Republicans—see Bill Clinton promising to gut welfare. You get the “Democratic base” but then you “expand” it to peel away Republicans. If you ask what the proof of this theory is, you get one answer: 1972, in which the “too liberal” George McGovern lost badly to Richard Nixon.

This theory, however, needs to be completely discarded. The core mistake of it is that it sees voters as primarily ideological. In fact, as anyone who has knocked doors for a while can tell you, voters are deeply weird and idiosyncratic. It’s not that they’re in the “center,” it’s usually that they’re all over the map: people have some really conservative opinions alongside some really left-wing ones. It’s not uncommon to meet a voter who thinks immigrants are stealing our jobs but private insurance should be abolished, or who thinks Trump is being persecuted but thinks reparations are sensible. The “median voter” idea is a bad one precisely because the “spectrum” is a bad concept to begin with. Yes, there are clusters of tendencies, and there are lots of “partisans.” But people actually will surprise you: you’ll meet plenty who are considering both Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg, and can tell you almost nothing about either of them. (A friend of mine tells me that in 2016, his aunt’s entire perspective on the race was: “It’s between a clown and a robot, and I’ll take the clown.” She spoke for millions.)

What if, and I know this sounds crazy, politics is less about ideology than about personality, narrative, and organizing? Under a personality theory, if you put a likable, charismatic, right-winger against a hesitating and disagreeable left-winger, the right-winger would win. But if the qualities were inverted, and the right-winger was dislikable and the left-winger was charismatic and compelling, the result would also be inverted.

Here’s a very rough folk theory of elections to consider: the person who loses is the one who seems the most like a loser. I realize this sounds silly, and hindsight will inevitably influence the assessment, but the people who lose do often seem like the kind of people who would lose. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are charismatic, likable, inspiring winners. John Kerry and Al Gore are humorless, uninspiring bores. When we run people that people like and are inspired by, we win. When we don’t, we lose. I’m not saying this theory is an all-explaining or universally correct one. Just that it makes as much sense to me as the solely ideology-based theory.

How about another folk theory? Organizing matters. If a socialist knocks on 100,000 doors and spends the most time persuading voters, they might beat a conservative. (A DSA member who became a Virginia House of Delegates member, Vaughn Stewart, told Current Affairs he believes he won not because he was a socialist, but because he showed up and met with people.) Under this theory, a fascist party could win even if most people aren’t fascists, if the fascists are the best-organized.

Perhaps George McGovern just wasn’t very persuasive, likable, or organized. (He was a also a big fat Liberal, more Elizabeth Warren than Bernie Sanders.) If there are more variables that matter than ideology, then the simple “Bernie can’t win because he’s a leftist, Biden will have more of a chance because he’s a centrist” is dangerously false. It doesn’t just matter what Biden’s ideology is. It matters whether he can organize and inspire. Even if it was harder for a left-wing candidate to win, if the left-wing candidate is the one with the giant grassroots fundraising and door-knocking apparatus, they might be your best bet.

But I don’t actually think it is harder for a left-wing candidate to win, and I think people who assume this assume it in part because they don’t really understand what the “left” is or what our theory is. Socialist values pose a significant threat to the wealth and power of certain people in society who have a strong self-interest in making sure people misunderstand and distrust socialists. But actually, the left stands for ideas that, once people understand them clearly and see through all the myths, have the possibility of mass appeal. Medicare for All is popular, and it would probably be far more popular if you explained to people exactly how it worked and what it would mean for them, and showed them how it would affect their pocketbooks and their experience with the healthcare system. Instead, pollsters ask things like “Would you support Medicare For All even if it took away your private insurance and increased your taxes?” and people get jittery, because they think that means they’re going to be uninsured and have less money. People try to mislead the public about what the left is trying to do, then when the public swallows the misconception, we are told that America rejects left ideas. It’s silly.

Sure enough, there is evidence that Bernie Sanders would be something different from anything we’ve seen before, in terms of whose appeal he would attract. Joe Rogan, who we can think of as more naturally Trump-sympathetic, prefers Sanders over other Democrats. Ann Coulter is weirdly sympathetic to him. Even Tucker Carlson understands that Bernie will have a unique power to appeal to Trump voters. (I have given a longer explanation here of how the left can present a formidable case against Trump that can weaken his turnout, neutralize his message, and leave him struggling to figure out what he can say in response besides “But socialism!”) Those who fear Bernie will hurt “down ballot” Democrats in conservative areas do not get it: Bernie is far more likely to appeal to conservatives than Hillary Clinton was, because Bernie is not going to drip with contempt for them and call them all a “basket of deplorables.”

If the left were given the ability to make its case clearly to the public, to explain what it is we actually believe and want, our agenda would not be “crazy.” It’s only crazy because people keep calling it crazy and refusing to have a serious discussion about what, for example, AOC’s poverty plan would mean for people, or how much it would really cost to get rid of student debt (not nearly as much as you think). If Bernie is the nominee he will actually get a chance to speak to millions of people directly and at length for the first time. And when people get to see Bernie up close, rather than through the distorting prism of media coverage, they like him.

Maybe the reason people distrust the left is that you have the paper of record publishing sheer fabrications about how Bernie Sanders represents the “end” of the liberal values of compassion, tolerance, and optimism. What are they talking about? Bernie Sanders’ campaign is built in compassion, he’s gotten into trouble for how far he takes his toleration of opponents’ speech, and it’s all built on the optimistic idea that we can establish a decent standard of living for everyone. This is just a disgusting lie, but here it is in the nation’s leading “liberal” newspaper from one of Barack Obama’s favorite columnists.

I’ve been so depressed to see just how nasty the attacks on Sanders have gotten, how far divorced from reality they’ve become. Even Elizabeth Warren is now portraying Bernie Sanders as a useless do-nothing (he’s actually phenomenally effective and can rattle off dozens of achievements). How sad it is to watch someone who could have been a natural ally in turning America into a true social democracy running a scorched earth campaign to deny Sanders the nomination however she can. Sometimes it feels like being pummeled from all directions, and you just want to lie down and give up. You, too? Is everyone going to turn on us? What on earth is wrong with you people? The Sanders movement is something beautiful and necessary. It offers people something important to believe in. People like Obama and Warren are really going to expend their resources in trying to crush it completely and demoralize the millions of people for whom it means so much? Warren came in 5th place in the last primary, and knows that her continued presence in the race will help Biden secure the nomination. Is this just spite at this point? Is she being paid? What is going on?

A crude Marxist analysis, of course, would say that it’s all a matter of class. Ultimately, Sanders is a candidate fighting on behalf of the working-class against a party dominated by rich capitalists and members of the professional-managerial class, all of whom stick together at the end of the day. Bernie poses an existential threat to their power and status, because he thinks Congress should be full of bartenders rather than lawyers and business owners.

Perhaps Democrats trying to stop Bernie really think he can’t beat Trump. As I say, there isn’t really evidence of this, beyond the theory that the word socialism will turn toxic in a way it hasn’t so far. Still, they might be sincere in their error, for all I know. For some of them, however, there is something else: Bernie’s success would discredit and humiliate them. And whether they know it or not, that may be subconsciously affecting how they think about him. Let us say Bernie did beat Trump, and that he did pass Medicare for All, and that it was a success. What would that mean for people like Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton? It would mean that they were wrong when they had not chosen to fight for these things. Completely wrong. In fact, they stood in the way of progress and prevented us from getting things we could have had all along. They “compromised” all of the important values for nothing. They should have been standing with Bernie and instead they were standing against him, creating needless barriers to fundamentally important social changes.

But it’s even worse than that for them: if Bernie beats Trump, liberalism is over. I don’t mean in the sense David Brooks means, that the liberal values of free expression and democracy are over. Bernie has fought for those his whole life. I mean incrementalist politics that declines to forthrightly challenge the distribution of power and wealth. Because if Bernie beats Trump in 2020, it will show that Bernie was right that he could have beaten Trump in 2016. And if Bernie could have beaten Trump in 2016, then all of the horror of Trump’s presidency—the kids in cages, the poisoned environment, the pardoned psychopaths—was avoidable. It didn’t need to have happened. It happened because liberals stood in the way, because they insisted on coronating Hillary Clinton instead of listening to those of us who were shouting over and over “YOU NEED BERNIE IF YOU ARE GOING TO WIN.” This mess will have been their fault. They could have let Bernie go after Trump with a powerful left populist appeal. Instead they chose to run a D.C. insider who hasn’t talked to a person without a college degree since before they went to college. If Bernie wins in 2020, it will show that this was the fuckup of the century, that it put the entire planet at risk, that they understood absolutely nothing about politics and the limits of the possible. It will show that every compromise Barack Obama made was unnecessary, and every person who thought “pragmatism” meant setting aside your principles sold their soul and didn’t even get the lousy T-shirt.

My theory for why some people hate Bernie so much is that Bernie shows them a person they could have been, but found some excuse not to be. They didn’t have to sell out. They could have stood alone, never ceasing to fight against injustice. But they did sell out, and the only consolation they got was that it was the reassurance that they were pragmatic and sensible and smart. What if it wasn’t even that, though? What if it was incredibly dumb? So I’m not surprised they’ll do anything they can to keep Bernie from being the nominee. If left policies and politics turn out to work, to engage people and improve things, people will have spent their life on the wrong side. And it’s probably easier to reelect Trump than to stomach the revelation that you were deeply wrong in a way that caused terrible harm.

Okay, but let’s go back to the facts: Objectively speaking, the future of the planet depends on Bernie getting this nomination and then beating Trump. If either one of those things doesn’t happen, we’re fucked. Don’t take my word for it. Think about it. Play the scenarios out in your head. Imagine how a brokered convention will go. Imagine how embittered Sanders’ voters would be if he had the nomination snatched out from under him. Imagine how Joe Biden would campaign, and how the size of his events would compare to the size of Trump’s. How anemic would his campaign be next to the well-oiled Sanders machine? How many young people would go around in Biden shirts? Come on.

I feel so crazy, because I want to scream: please, for the love of God, just try to look at things as they are! There are still people supporting Elizabeth Warren, because she’s the candidate of their “hearts.” Do they know how much is at stake? Do they know what will happen if we don’t get Bernie? There are people trying to prop up Biden and force a brokered convention. Do they know that getting Pete and Amy behind Biden does not make him any better or more competent a campaigner? Do they know that it will only provide the illusion of strength until such time as he faces Donald Trump? Do they care what will happen as a result of that? Do they realize just how big the threat of climate change is? Do they seriously think that even if Joe Biden scraped himself somehow across the finish line he would do anything about it as president? Do they think the Sunrise Movement would have a friend in Joe Biden like they would in Bernie Sanders? What is the thinking here? What is the theory? How do you think this is going to play out? Are they really going to let the goddamn planet burn to save us from a social democrat? How can you be that indifferent to the fate of billions? I’ve been feeling such rage at people like Warren and O’Rourke, but it’s almost subsided into just a deep, deep sadness. How depressing it is that there can be people with so much indifference to what will happen as a result of their actions.

My co-editors worry sometimes that I have been publishing too many pro-Bernie articles. They are concerned that Current Affairs could end up seeming like a propaganda outlet. Frankly, they’re probably right. I’ve been strident this election season. (I’ve been vicious to poor Pete, for instance.) But I swear it’s not because of any great cultish adoration for Bernie Sanders. I do not want to be writing all the time about Bernie Sanders, believe me. I wish I could write about so many other things. (As one example, I’d like to be attacking Bernie from the left during a Bernie presidency.)

The reason I’ve been writing incessantly since 2016 about the critical importance of electing Bernie is that I sense the extreme urgency of our political moment, and this cranky old man from Vermont has rather remarkably ended up in the position where his election is a necessary step in moving this country forward and saving it from barbarism and self-destruction. If I could, I would write 10 pro-Bernie articles a day, not because I am a “bro,” but because I am so afraid all the time about what happens if we don’t get this done, and all I want to say over and over is “Don’t you see? Please. PLEASE. We need this. It is so important. How do you not see the importance? Do you not realize what’s at stake?” It sounds so arrogant. So accusatory. So insane. I don’t want to be like that. I’ve become an angrier person this election season. I’ve lost friends. I’ve flunked my schoolwork. I’ve alienated colleagues. I’ve made people think I’m nuts.

But since we founded Current Affairs in 2016, I’ve been trying to say the same thing over and over in however many ways I can, because it feels so obvious to me that it occupies me constantly and if it isn’t understood and acted upon it will cause such catastrophic harm: we need Bernie. We have got to make this happen. We have an opportunity here. It won’t come again. We are lucky we got a “do-over” in 2020, but this is it. We can have something incredibly good, or we can have something incredibly bad, and there is no in between and we’ve got to choose and choose now.

The only thing that keeps me from going insane is the fact that I am not, in fact, at all alone. The millions of people who fight for Bernie: they all get it too. That’s why they’re out there spending every moment of their day working for him, giving him all the money they can. Forklift operators, truck driver, fast food workers: they sense that at last, there is someone in politics who might really make a difference to their lives. The activists in the youth climate movement know that there is finally someone for whom climate change carries the right amount of urgency, who doesn’t just see it as a phrase to toss out and indicate Deep Concern about, but who sees it as something that if we do not fix now will have terrible consequences. Bernie gets it in a way nobody else does.

When Bernie had his heart attack, I and so many of these others panicked. And people made fun of us and couldn’t believe how dependent we were on “one guy” being our “savior.” But Bernie isn’t a savior. Bernie is a vehicle for carrying out our aspirations. He’s a means to the end of a better future. I wish we had other vehicles. But he’s the one we’ve got right here and now, and we have to do everything possible to make sure we don’t miss this chance.

I hope today goes well. It needs to. So much is on the line.

Recently had both eyes done for cataracts. Still in recovery mode. My right eye followup was Thursday — the left eye was done first — and complications were found. The doc thought he saw a retinal tear, so he booked me with yet another specialist for Friday (yesterday). That doctor found tears in both eyes, and I had an (unexpected) surgery on the left eye that day.

I’m beginning to notice a pattern with surgeons. They seem not to actually think what they do might, um, kinda hurt patients. They seem so convinced of their skills — and they do have them — that patients shouldn’t worry bout a thing.

The laser fix for the tear actually did hurt, and I pride myself in having a very high threshold for pain. More than 17 years of chemo and its side-effects, I think, gives me that right. But, again, this hurt. Its only saving grace was its relative short time frame (five minutes, perhaps?). I can see it being used by torturers for a longer time, and breaking down the victim fairly easily. But the doc seemed not to really consider the possibility of pain, though perhaps he did just a bit, because he kept telling me we’re almost finished, we’re almost finished, etc.

Next week, I get the other eye done, but with a different fix. Instead of a laser, they’ll freeze it somehow. If any of you guys have ever dealt with anything similar, and have any advice, would greatly appreciate the new knowledge.

Will generally be back late (9 PM?) on Tuesdays.

So if you want content–do everyone a favor and provide it! That would be cool.

If there’s an issue, like another post accidently marked “pending,” be patient.

Enjoy your Tuesdays. Don’t burn the place down.

Kinda late to the dance on this one, but just finished his Booker-winning novel (2017). Really liked it, but it took some time to get used to. Experimental, polyphonic, a cast of 166 voices. Mostly about one single night in a kind of Nowhere zone for “souls,” somewhere between life, death and perhaps, reincarnation. Lincoln and his son, Willie, are the ultimate focus.

I probably should have picked a different book as my first foray into ebook formats. It was difficult enough to get used to Saunders’ unique style, but adding the strangeness of the small screen didn’t really help matters. And all the while, I felt guilty for breaking an old promise: never go over to the Dark Side and read in that new-fangled way.

The idea, however, of using an app to gain access to all kinds of books was too much of a temptation. Saving the trip to the library, doing all of this from home, etc. But it kinda baffles me — some of the rules. You have to put a hold on a lot of the books and wait your turn. They aren’t always available. I would have thought that, it being digital, they’d always have plenty of copies. Perhaps it’s a copyright thing, and it costs libraries per digital copy. Not sure. It also could just be their way of keeping track of things. Anyway . . . Old dog, new tricks, etc.

If any of you plan to read the book, be patient with it. It’s not a “page-turner,” at least not at first. Read on, cuz it gets better and better. Much humor, much compassion and pathos, and very wise in places. I thought of various books, plays and authors as I read, but the ones that rose to the top of the list were Flann O’Brien, Beckett (dark Vaudeville, sorta kinda), Wilder’s Our Town, and a dash of Dickens here and there.

I can see why it won awards.

Rams Head Coach Sean McVay – – Dec. 22, 2019

(Opening Remarks)
“Yesterday, (CB) Jalen (Ramsey) got a knee banged up. We’re continuing to evaluate and see how – he ended up continuing to play through it, but we’re going to look at just seeing how he feels as the week progresses. (T) Bobby Evans did return from the hip pointer that he got. He should be okay, but we’ll take it day-to-day with him. With (RB) Darrell Henderson (Jr.) – with his ankle, he ended up tweaking it on his first carry and then felt it on his second carry. He’s going to need to get that thing cleaned up, so we’re probably going to put him on ‘IR’ (injured reserve).”

(On which ankle Henderson Jr. injured)
“It’s his right ankle.”

(On if Henderson Jr. will have a procedure immediately)
“He’ll have it done after Christmas. He’ll have it done at some point this week, but we’ll wait until after Christmas so he can still enjoy Christmas.”

(On if Ramsey’s injury is something they will monitor and if he had an MRI)
“We’re getting further updates on that. We want to be as smart as possible. He tweaked it, he felt it, he was able to play through it. As we’re continuing to gather information, I’ll have a little bit more for you as the week progresses.”

(On if Ramsey has already had an MRI or if he will in the future)
“He’s going to. We’re going to get him a further evaluation.”

(On if Henderson Jr.’s injury will require surgery)
“He had a high ankle sprain. It’s unstable, so he’ll need to get surgery. The specifics of that – it’s not something that’s too evasive. It is something that will require to go in there and get it cleaned up. When he gets back – I don’t think it’ll be anything too long that will force him to miss a bunch of time.”

(On if he knows the severity of Ramsey’s injury)
“I don’t. It’s his ‘LCL’ (lateral collateral ligament). Just figuring out the specifics of, ‘What type of grade strain is it?’ Then I’ll be able to have some further updates for you as he’s talking with the doctors, I get a chance to talk to those guys and then we’ll have some further information for you guys later this week.”

(On how he balances maintaining the health of the team going into the offseason versus wanting to win against Arizona to close out the regular season)
“I think you want to be smart about it, you don’t want to force guys to play that aren’t in the position to be able to do that. I do think we have a lot of good competitors. You’re always pushing through some bumps and bruises at this point, but if it is something where they are going to have it fixed or you’re putting them at further risk for injury, we would definitely take that into consideration and we wouldn’t want to expose guys for that.”

(On how he is processing what happened in last night’s game against the 49ers)
“A lot of the same as what it felt right after, extremely disappointing. You put as much into it and you want to see more success collectively with the group. How much goes into this season and all really geared towards giving yourself an opportunity to compete afterwards, but that isn’t the only reason you do it. You get to go through a lot of good and some bad this season. I think that’s forced us to learn a lot about ourselves, I know it has for me personally. Really, my focus is on finishing this season out the right way. Once we get to that point where the season is finished, there will be a lot of good self-refection. There will be a lot of good evaluation – for everybody – and for us to be able to look at what we can do to be better and hopefully avoid these types of seasons, as we move forward, and as we learn, as we grow together.”

(On his comments after the game where he compared the loss to the 49ers and the Super Bowl loss)
“It’s hard to compare. I think everything is so fresh. When you’re talking right after a game too, the emotions are very real, they’re very raw. It still hurts. In all those losses, like I said, they take a little bit out of you. What you can’t be afraid of is that feeling of getting up and continuing to battle and fight and try to do the best job that you can for your team as we try to finish up this season the right way. It’s all been disappointing. I really think what both those games represented, in different manners, was the finality of the season last year, and then yesterday, represented the finality of our opportunity to have some games past the 16 that we’re guaranteed. They both hurt a lot, but every single loss does. I think it’s just because you care so much and you want to see the people that you’re doing it with have success, that’s really why you do it. When we haven’t had the success that we’ve wanted, it hurts. You can’t be afraid of that hurt, like we’ve talked about.”

(On if there is significance finishing with a winning record)
“I think so. Yeah, I think it’s important. I think it demonstrates, too, the character that I do believe we have in this locker room. For guys to continue to compete, we’re going to battle and we’re going to compete to the best of our ability to try to finish out with a winning record. That is something that I said to the team today and I think it’s important for us. We know the challenge because Arizona is a tough football team.”

(On how potentially finishing with nine wins feels like a year after playing in the Super Bowl)
“I think because you want to try to have those temporary milestones that you want to accomplish. For us, the goal at hand and what we can accomplish this week is to try to establish a winning record based on where we’re at after 15 games. Is it where we wanted to be? I don’t think anybody would have said that before the season. It is where we’re at and all we can do is handle it the right way. That’s all we know how to do.”

(On where he thinks they fell short as a whole this season)
“I think overall, just the consistency. I think there’s been instances in all three phases where there’s been some really positive things and then there’s been some other instances where I don’t think we’ve played up to our capability. That’s all of us – that’s coaches, players, we’re all in this thing together. Ultimately, you‘ve heard us talk about it before, consistency is the truest measurement of performance. Unfortunately, I think our inconsistency as a team ended up hurting us. We saw what we were capable of when the things were going well, and we saw how it can look when they’re not going well. It’s been a real big learning opportunity this year. It is something that you want to really make sure that you go back, you reflect on an you say, ‘All right, how can we try to be more consistent week in and week out? What are the things that I can do, that we can do in terms of how we’re setting up our offseason?’ Everything is going to be evaluated and I’m excited about attacking that challenge after this week. That’s where our singular focus will be is on focusing on this week and the Cardinals game because that’s what we’re going to finish this season off the right way. I think you owe it to the players, to everybody in this organization. Then, after that, then we’ll have a good chance, unfortunately, a lot longer than we’re accustomed to, to really look inward and reflect on what are the things that we can do to move forward and be better attacking next season?”

(On how he feels)
“I sound a lot worse than I feel. I kind of got a little bit of a head cold earlier this week. It sounds worse. I feel like I’m turning the corner. I just sound bad.”

(On what’s going on with T Rob Havenstein)
“He’s (T Rob Havenstein) been practicing. He hasn’t really been in a position where he feels like he can do the things to play at a high level. So, we wanted to be smart with this and not push him. Bobby’s done some good things, but really, it’s been more of a reflection of how he’s felt during the week of practice, where could he really push through it, maybe. But, he’s not feeling totally good enough to be able to have that anchor, that stability that you need. We’ve just been smart and patient with it and taking his feedback and the doctor’s. We’ll see what this week looks like.”

(On this being the last game with this group together and how much emphasis he puts on that)
“I think it’s important. You want to make sure that you cherish every moment and you make sure that you maximize the day. There’s a lot of things that this season has given you – I think especially a perspective and appreciation. It is a blessing to do be able to do this for a job. You think about, especially coming around the holidays, and some of the things that I know when you get upset about certain things you kind of have to take a step back and realize you’re very blessed to even be in this position. I think you want to make sure that you appreciate, enjoy the opportunities, appreciate the relationships that you build – knowing that inevitably there is change that occurs year in and year out whether it be good or bad. For us, this will be the last time with this team that we’ll get a chance to go out and compete together. I think we want to be able to enjoy the week of preparation and let’s see these guys go out on a good note.”

Safety Blitz
I see a more patient runner who reads the blocks before taking an angle ala L Bell. Muscling through the trenches waiting for a big play. Doesn’t seem as explosive but whatever changes he has made are working.

Still would like him catch a few more passes.

Rams Head Coach Sean McVay – Nov. 18, 2019

(On an update regarding WR Robert Woods)
“There’s no update. He’s (WR Robert Woods) still handling that personal matter and we’ll probably have a little bit more of an update on that later on in the week.”

(On if he expects WR Brandin Cooks to return this week)
“We do. He’s (WR Brandin Cooks) been in great spirits, he’s been in good shape. The anticipation is that he will be able to play this week.”

(On injury updates following Sunday’s game)
“Came out pretty good. Your typical bumps and bruises, but the tight ends that were banged up going into it, they came out in good shape. For the most part, ‘Brock’ (DL Michael Brockers) had his little elbow deal, but he ended up coming back into the game. It was as healthy as we’ve come out of a game with all the guys that did play.”

(On OLB Dante Fowler Jr. exiting late in Sunday’s game)
“I think it was probably more of just catching his (OLB Dante Fowler Jr.) wind. He’s good.”

(On what Brockers’ injury was)
“He just irritated his elbow. Not exactly sure what it was. As soon as I went out there – I think, probably, one of those deals where it kind of just scares you initially more than anything. Once you kind of settle in you realize, ‘All right, you’re okay,’ and he came back and he did a great job to finish it out.”

(On him going out on the field to check on Brockers)
“If a guy stays down there, usually I end up going out there just to make sure they’re okay and just kind of check on them. That was the case and as soon as we got out there, you felt pretty good just based on the feedback he was able to give to us.”

(On if T Rob Havenstein will be available this week)
“I would say he’s (T Rob Havenstein) probably going to be doubtful for this week. He is making good progress. To have a finite answer on exactly when he’ll play a week from today is difficult. I think the anticipation – just originally with that injury – was that it’s probably going to be a couple weeks. That’s why he’ll most likely be doubtful, but you don’t want to rule him out quite yet.”

(On QB Jared Goff saying Sunday was one of his favorite wins as a Ram and if he can relate to that feeling)
“Any win is a good win. We’ll certainly take that – it was the most recent one, so it was certainly a fun one. I think all the things that went on and the way that our team continues to stick together through the good, though the bad and all those different types of things – I think the mental toughness, the resilience that they really embody and personify is something that I think is really powerful. I love the way that our guys just hung tough. I love the way that yesterday provided a lot of opportunities for guys that didn’t expect to be in some of the positions they were in last night. To show that the game’s not too big for them and I love the way that we found a way to win as a team, which is always the goal.”

(On if there are circumstances that took place on Sunday that may translate to future games or if it was a one-off)
“I think it’s a combination of both. Obviously, when you end up having a late adjustment because of something that occurred with a player that’s a big-time contributor – but then you always talk about, ‘How do you want to win games as a team? What do we feel like the best way to put all three phases together?’ I think what we’re all learning is that the ways that we do that with this year’s team is maybe different than what we’ve seen. The most important thing is what’s the best way for this team to be able to win football games. I think that’s something that we’re continuing to learn. Each week based on the opponent we play might look like a different answer in terms of the matchups, but I think yesterday was a good indicator of some things that you might want to see moving forward.”

(On if the team felt a little bit of a relief or if there were extra emotions after winning Sunday’s game)
“I think the guys would be better served to answer that than me. I was really pleased with just the amount of different things that went on – the guys found a way to bond together and win a football game. Whether that be overcoming injuries, whether that be opportunities for some guys that hadn’t played to step up, whether that be some things that are way bigger than football going on, I think there is a lot of different things. Anytime that you’re coming off of a disappointing outcome the previous week – especially when it was the bye – you have a tendency to feel like, ‘Man, it’s been so long since we’ve played a good game.’ But, because of the two-week stretch since we had won coming off the bye, then you don’t get the result you want. I think there was a lot of things that went into it, but I think the guys were pleased with the win, to answer your question.”

(On if the tight end usage was something he planned coming in or if it was exacerbated by not having Woods)
“It’s a little bit of both. They do a good job of mixing some of their personnel groupings and we wanted to be able to run the football. Some of the run concepts that we felt like would give us the best chance to be able to move the football consistently and do some things that we wanted to do against that front structure. We felt like the best way to do that would be out of the two-tight-end personnel grouping. Obviously, there is going to be some adjustments when one of your starting receivers that’s a main contributor for you ends up not going right before kickoff.”

(On what it says about the tight ends and offensive tackles to be able to keep Bears LB Khalil Mack off the stat sheet)
“It says they did a great job. He is a game wrecker, he is a big-time, special, unique player. I thought the ability to be able to kind of consistently stay patient with the runs, consistently move the ball – I think we’ve got to be better in some of those third-down situations when we do run it, but I thought just the commitment overall. Then what we were able to get in terms of some of the ways we were limited in having to throw the football outside of a few drop backs here and there, limits really the ‘opps’ that he has and I think that’s a credit to those guys that you just mentioned.”

(On what he remembers about Ravens QB Lamar Jackson from when the team had training camp practices with the Ravens in 2018 and what he thinks about what Jackson is doing this season)
“As you’re just diving into the initial part of getting familiar with the Ravens, I think you saw a dynamic athlete, you saw a guy that was just getting used to…I mean, you think about the early stages of where you’re at in your development as a rookie quarterback right in the beginning of training camp. That’s a lot of stuff that those guys are getting accustomed to. You could see the athleticism, but then when you look at what he’s done so far, it has been impressive in terms of the ability to put pressure on defenses with the way that he can beat you in a couple different ways. I think (Ravens Offensive Coordinator) Greg Roman has done an outstanding job. They’re one of the best offenses. They’re on track to have less punts than anybody in the history of the league over the course of a season. I think they had zero punts yesterday. Dynamic playmaker, builds the guys around him, have a confidence because of his swagger and confidence. When he is delivering the football, he’s throwing the ball accurately. In a lot of instances, they’re dictating structures because they’re able to be so efficient and such a threat of the run and the pass that can come off of it.”

(On how CB Troy Hill has done since taking over the starting position and if that role became increasingly difficult for him after adding CB Jalen Ramey to the other side knowing that quarterbacks would want to avoid Ramsey)
“Yeah. I think in some instances, if that’s what a team wants to do, you typically say, ‘All right you might see a little bit more work.’ But I think (CB) Troy (Hill) has done a great job continuing to improve. (Cornerbacks) Coach Pleasant does an outstanding job with those guys as a whole. Helping really to fine-tune the fundamentals, the techniques. Troy has always had the skill set in terms of his lateral agility, his just body control, overall speed. I think you’re seeing him play at a really high level. He ends up having a pick yesterday, gets a sack on the one that gets flushed out on the sideline, he’s making tackles. I think he’s playing really good football right now. Really, I thought our secondary as whole did a great job last night. To minimize – where you talk about the biggest gain they had was on a 19-yard gain where we ended up dropping a coverage responsibility in a man pressure we had. I think that’s a real credit to those guys and I thought it was a real positive to see (CB) David Long (Jr.) play his first extensive action – 15 snaps, did a great job. That’s a reflection of those guys on the backend with (Safeties) Coach ‘E’ (Ejiro Evero) and Coach Aubrey doing a great job coaching those guys up.”

(On how much harder the challenge is against Baltimore)
“When you look at just the production that they’ve had offensively, it is getting increasingly difficult. I think that’s something that you embrace as a competitor. I know our guys will be excited about the challenge and the opportunity to compete against one of the best and most productive offenses in the league this year.”

(On when the defense is playing really well and if that changes or impacts anything he does as a playcaller)
“Yeah, it certainly does. At the end of the day, the goal is to win the football game. Regardless of how you end up doing it, a win is a win. Now, certainly, that doesn’t mean you don’t want to be efficient and operate with consistency offensively, but I think it does enable you to feel like…I don’t necessarily know if conservative is the word. But you want to play a smart, complementary game. I think yesterday indicated our ability to approach the game like that. There are still some instances where, as a whole, as good as the defense played there’s some things we talked about that we expect them to do at a really high level. Same thing with the offense and the special teams, and like anything else we expect to get better from this. I think it’s always easier to be able to teach and have guys learn from it when you do get the result that you want. But we do want to continue to focus on that process.”

(On how RB Todd Gurley was feeling today and if he will continue to use him in the same way in which he did in yesterday’s game or if it’ll be a game-to-game evaluation)
“I think if he’s feeling good. That’s what you want. Obviously, that was the most work that he got this season. I think the thing that we had discussed that we talked about it last week, don’t miss the opportunity if he’s feeling good and getting into the flow like he was in Pittsburgh. I think more than anything he can really draw on that, feel good. So, yes if that’s something that he continues to feel good, with his body responds the right way, which every inclination that I have is he’s feeling good. That is something that you’d like to see because when the ball is in (RB) Todd’s (Gurley) hands good things happen. I love as much as anything the way he responded after what happened on the first touch.”

(On after watching the film how he felt about the offensive line’s performance)
“Just physical. You saw a lot of downhill, direct runs. I just thought you could feel, especially for a lot of guys making their first extended action, wasn’t too big going against a great front with a bunch of different play-makers on that front. I just thought that they played with a consistent physicality, a toughness, the way they were finishing. I thought there was a good energy in and out of the huddle. Obviously, able to keep Jared clean where he wasn’t getting hit. They did a very, very good job. I thought (Run Game Coordinator) Coach (Aaron) Kromer’s guidance, and then you talk about (T) Andrew Whitworth’s leadership, (C) Austin Blythe’s command at the center spot with those two big guards, and then (T) Bobby Evans doing a nice job stepping in at the right tackle position.”

(On how he goes about trying to simulate Ravens QB Lamar Jackson’s mobility and option concepts they run during practice this week)
“That’s a hell of a question. That is something that we’ve started to discuss as a group with our defensive staff. It’s hard to find somebody that has the skill set, in terms of the athleticism, to put the pressure on your defense, but then can also throw the football. Those are some things that we’re working through. But typically you would like to say, ‘All right, is it maybe even something where you explore a really unique athlete that can throw it?’ Because you don’t want it to be so predictable if you just put a guy in there. We’ve got some guys that might be capable of mimicking and emulating him, but he is certainly the man and playing at this rate for a reason. It’s hard to truly do that.”

(On if there is any concern for the wellbeing of Woods)
“No, we feel good. He’s in a good place. We feel good about where the situation is at and his wellbeing, and that’s very, very important to us.”

Rams Postgame Quotes – November 17, 2019

***

Head Coach Sean McVay

(Opening Remarks)
“First and foremost, with (WR) Robert Woods not being there tonight – it was a personal matter. That’s all we are going to say about that. We love him, respect him, we are with him and his family all the way and that’s really where we will leave that at. As far as the game tonight, really pleased with our team. To be able to find a way to win as a team, that was the goal, that always is the goal. It was a little bit different than typically what we are accustomed to seeing, but a win is a win, we will take that. I love this group, love the way that they continue to battle. I thought our coaching staff did a great job. Hats off to the Bears. They are a tough, physical football team. We were pleased to come away with a win tonight.”

(On what point did he know Woods wasn’t going to play today)
“A couple hours before the game.”

(On if he made a conscientious effort to put the ball in RB Todd Gurley II hands)
“That was part of the gameplan tonight and I thought he did a great job. What I loved the most about what (RB) Todd (Gurley II) did, is after we put the first carry on the ground, he didn’t flinch, he came back and had some good, tough, physical runs and made some good catches out of the backfield and he was a big-time contributor tonight. I thought our offensive line as a whole – I can’t say enough about (TE) Johnny Mundt and (TE) Tyler Higbee battling through, where they were banged up, they were questionable coming in to the game. For Johnny Mundt to be able to play really his first extensive action like that and do a great job battling against a really physical front – with some of the personnel groupings that they were playing on defense – I thought was a real impressive night for those guys. Just kind of grinding it out had to be patient and a lot of that is a result of being able to play as good of defense as we did tonight as well.”

(On holding the Bears to seven points and how good the defense played tonight)
“Unbelievable. They continued to make stop after stop. I though (DB) Troy Hill’s interception was big. The thing that I thought was as big as anything is when offensively, when we turn it over the first two possessions – for the defense to be able to stand up and not let any points come off those turnovers was huge. Really, our defense was outstanding and that’s what we expect from them. I thought they did a great job.”

(On if he was committed to more of a conservative approach on offense)
“Yes, and really I thought at the most timely spots our guys rose up. To be able to see (WR) Josh Reynolds make some timely catches, I thought the third down, where he ended up having poor leverage on (Bears CB Kyle) Fuller, broke that leverage, (QB) Jared (Goff) delivers him a good ball. What a play by Jared Goff in the empty formation to recognize kind of a trap-type coverage where Fuller comes off on the out-break from Josh and he opens up the hole shot from (Tight End) Gerald (Everett). I hate that the one big play to Josh came back, but really I loved the way that our guys overcame it. To see (RB) Malcolm (Brown) end up punching that one in was big and then to be able to close out the game in a four-minute situation and be able to take a knee, that’s always a good thing for us.”

(On if he expected this good of a performance from the offensive line)
“Yeah, it is. That’s what we expected. That was the type of game that we thought it would be and I thought those guys did a great job. Until you go back and look at the tape, it’s hard for us to say but I did think there was a lot of situations where you are a little bit more conservative. I thought they did a great job just continuing to battle. It was a physical football game and really pleased with those guys as a whole.”

(On which point in the week he decided he was going to use Gurley heavily in this game)
“I think you always have a plan as the week evolves, but you certainly never know exactly how a game’s going to unfold and sometimes it changes. I thought our ability to stay in some manageable situations, the efficiency we had specifically early on in the game was critical for that, and like we talked about, I didn’t think I did a good enough job against the Steelers of kind of recognizing the way that he was running and you don’t want to make the same mistake twice.”

(On if he recognizes the way that Gurley is running now, and if we will see him featured more during the remainder of the season)
“I think so. That’s an ideal situation, but we’ll continue to look at this film and we’ll see how we want to put together our next game plan. Anytime you get Todd involved like that, it’s usually always a good thing for our offense.”

(On what he liked about CB Troy Hill’s performance, which included six tackles, a sack, and an interception)
“All those things you just mentioned, and I thought he just continued to compete. He’s a complete corner and if he gets his opportunities, he’s got the ball skills to be able to deliver. That was a big play right there if he’s coming up in run support, but a lot of different coverage principles that we activated tonight and I thought (CB) Troy (Hill) did a great job in addition to really the 10 (players) around him and all the different personnel groupings we activated.”

(On if he expects to get some clarity on when WR Robert Woods will return in the next day or two)
“Yeah, it’s hard to say. I don’t want to give a finite answer on that. I most importantly want to be able to talk to him afterwards. I talked to him before the game, but want to be able to check with him and out of respect for his family, that’s why we’re just kind of leaving it at what it is.”

***

QB Jared Goff

(On Rams Head Coach Sean McVay putting the ball in RB Todd Gurley II hands to control the offense)
“I think we kind of knew what type of game it was going to be. That was the type of game it was it was to run the ball and it was specifically (RB) Todd (Gurley II) the way he was moving the ball and the way he was moving, it worked. It worked really well. I just couldn’t be more proud of the guys who stepped up today. It doesn’t happen everywhere in the league where you have two O-linemen go down, you have (TE) Johnny Mundt, who’s banged up you have (TE) Tyler Higbee who’s banged up and we are going to play you guys the entire game almost. They stepped up and I couldn’t be more proud of them.”

(On what was the challenge knowing WR Robert Woods wasn’t going to be available for the game)
“He’s a stud for us and we want him out there. We are thinking about him right now, but I thought (WR) Josh (Reynolds) and (WR) Cooper (Kupp), the same reason. We learned before the game what was going on and needed those guys to step up and they didn’t flinch. I can’t stress enough of how proud I am of my teammates – specifically the guys that had to step up today.”

(On Kupp not having a catch last week and how nice was it to have him contribute to the offense this game)
“Anytime I can connect with him is great. We were able to get a little bit more on the same page this week, we weren’t throwing the ball as much as we usually do. It was the way to win the game today. We had to handle it that way and I thought he did a great job.”

(On how he was able to turn it around and keep it together after back-to-back turnovers)
“It’s never ideal and never something you want. I was really kicking myself – just knowing that, like I spoke about, that was the type of game it’s just, ‘Don’t turn the ball over and take care of the football.’ Just a bad throw by me. Again, I can’t stress enough the ability to overcome and how you see these guys just consistently fight, and fight, and fight. And those young guys in the huddle the way that they are locked in, it’s so special. It was a big win for us.”

(On if he could sense a feeling of urgency around the team knowing they needed a win to stay in the playoff hunt)
“I don’t think we’re thinking that big-picture right now. We were really focused on beating the Bears today and I think that you could feel the urgency with that coming off last week’s disappointment, just knowing that we needed to get this done today a few plays go here, there, the other, you never know what happens. We were able to make somethings happen and those guys up front stepped up and did their thing. We were able to run the ball and you could see what happens when we get that going.”

(On McVay’s ability to adjust his gameplan based on what the team had going)
“It was tremendous. Again, I think he is only going to continue to grow as a coach and I think tonight was a perfect example of him knowing what type of game it was going to be. Really relying on Todd and really relying on me to make good decisions and I let him down on that one. Just consistently taking care of the ball. Again, knowing what type of game it was going to be we wanted to do that, and I thought he did a great job.”

(On the interception he threw in double coverage and how he puts plays like that behind him)
“That one was tough, that was just a blatant bad decision and bad throw. It’s going to happen, you don’t want them to happen, but it’s bound to. I think, for me personally, I’ve always had a good way about myself to get over that stuff pretty quickly, but that one ate at me for a little bit. Like I spoke about, I knew this game was just take care of the football and we would win the game. As soon as I did that, I’m like, ‘What are you doing? throw the ball away.’ Glad I learned from it, made some good plays the end of the game. I just been doing it my whole life and have to. You have no other choice.”

(On if the defense playing well gives him confidence that he is going to have a chance)
“I think the way that they’ve been playing – specifically the last few games – like you’ve mentioned, it’s given us so much confidence and given us so much ability to go down the field and try to make plays and do different things. We need to be better for them, there is no doubt about that. I think tonight was a unique game and I think we’ve could have been a lot better, especially early on. I think the way that we kept responding, kept responding, we would go three-and-out, we’d punt it away, het the ball back and maybe again, and eventually, kept chipping away, kept chipping away, kept chipping away, and I think that last drive we got our mojo back, we were rolling. It felt like how we usually are on offense and it’s a good feeling right now.”

(On if him saying how he usually is involved Gurley II)
“I’m speaking more specifically in the pass game, of course the way he’s playing was tremendous. I think on that last drive, we don’t have the best look and we’re just getting open and I’m able to make some throws to the guys and they are making great catches and we are making stuff a little bit off-schedule. That’s how we should play, that’s the rhythm we need to play in and I think that Todd, like you mentioned, being able to run like he did, was able to get us into that rhythm.”

(On him being emotion with Gurley II coming off the field)
“I told him he fights, he fights, man. He’s been through the ringer and that dude fights and I couldn’t be more proud to be his teammate.”

(On Gurley II getting a season-high number of touches and how that affects the passing game)
“Yeah, anytime we can run the ball like that it’s going to open things up, especially in the play-action game, and I think that’s kind of what you’ve seen from us the last few years – when we’re at our best is when we’re running the ball really well, and there have been games where we haven’t and we’ve overcome it throwing for a million yards, but that’s not usually how we want to do it. Today was a game where we leaned heavily on him, leaned heavily on him and (RB) Malcolm (Brown) and I thought they both stepped up. You see the type of players they are and the type of people they are. It’s special and again, couldn’t be prouder.”

(On how good the offensive line was given the changes made in the lineup)
“Huge. Huge. Can’t stress it enough. You think about (T) Bobby Evans making his first start against (Bears OLB) Khalil Mack, who’s arguably the best rush-end in the league and it was a non-factor. He did his thing. He stepped up, he did his thing. We were doing different things to help them out, but not that much, to the point where he was just playing well. And then (OL) David Edwards continues to get better, continues to do his thing. I thought (OL) Austin Blythe directed the offense, directed the O-Line like a champ up front, and then (OL) Austin Corbett stepped in as well. Last week was his first time playing, and this week to just come in there, the way that all of them are just so non-reactive, every single play is just so dialed, so focused, so steely-eyed, and just ready to go. And obviously (T Andrew) Whitworth is who he is and we know that, but I just thought those guys just stepped up so well and I couldn’t be prouder. Couldn’t be prouder.”

(On if winning with only 11 completions was the way he wanted to win the game)
“It’s one of my favorite wins as a Ram, no doubt. I think with all the circumstances, being at home in front of our home fans and the way that the game was going, I don’t care how many times I throw the ball, how many times we run the ball, how many completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, interceptions. The way that game went, and the way that we fought, and the way that we continued to fight all the way until the end in that last drive, the way that that exemplifies that, I think it’s up there in the top of my head as one of my favorite wins as a Ram, and again I couldn’t be prouder with the guys on this team.”

***

WR Cooper Kupp

(On what they need to do to see more of an explosive offense)
“We just got to seize the opportunities. They’re there we just have to do a better job executing, starts with us at receiver. There’s some stuff that we did today, I mean even me specifically. There’s some stuff that I did that cost teams games and at the end of the day that’s what it is. You talk about being process driven over results driven. It’s really easy for us to walk out of here feeling good because we got a W. Obviously, you love getting a W. If we’d be process driven and understand the things that we did today, some of the things that I did today really cost teams games and the things that I can not do are inexcusable.”

(On if he feels extra pressure to help out the defense that’s been play so well)
“No, no pressure. We don’t have to make a push or anything like that. They’re playing lights out. I love seeing those guys compete. We just have to go out there and execute. That’s the bottom line. We keep saying, ‘We got to be better, we got to be better.’ We will be better, well it’s time for us to be better. We just have to execute. We have to execute, the stuff’s there. We just have to be better.”

(On how great it was to see RB Todd Gurley back playing)
“Man, that was great. You see the O-line, some of those guys stepped up huge, especially early on the run game was popping. Getting some good chunks. you see that kind of stuff should open up things in the pass game as well with play actions. It was great to be able to move the ball like that. We love being able to run down hill and see Todd lowering his shoulder again. It’s fun stuff.”

***

CB Jalen Ramsey

(On his perception on how the Rams got the win against the Bears)
“I think the team played well — enough to get the win, basically. The defense played extremely well. We’ve been stacking up some good performances lately – tonight was another good performance. We let them get one ‘tud’ (touchdown), but that was OK. We never doubted, we had confidence throughout the whole game, through all the adversity. We had the offenses is back and then the offense came up big towards the end of the game to, you know, finish out the win, basically. It was a good team win.”

(On how much the Rams needed to win tonight’s game to stay in playoff contention)
“We weren’t really thinking about it. It was just the next game on the schedule and the most important because it was the game that was right in front of us. That’s about it.”

(On how much of an accomplishment for the defense it was to hold the Browns to seven points)
“Yeah, I would think so. In the past however many weeks, we’ve played well defensively. I feel like since I’ve been here — not saying it’s because of me – but I’m saying since I’ve been here, I’ve noticed the defense is really good. The defense performs well and we are just going to keep on trying to build off of that.”

***

DT Aaron Donald

(On holding the Bears to seven points)
“We just played good as a defense, everybody flying around and, you know, played solid football. We gave up two plays, but at the end, I feel like we played strong.”

(On if they had a different mentality going into the game as a defense considering all of the personnel changes on the offense)
“Well our mindset every week as a defense is to try to dominate and do everything we can. I feel like we’ve been doing that week to week. We’ve got to continue to do it, clean up the little things we’ve been having mistakes with. But overall, I feel like we’ve been playing good football.”

(On what he liked from the defensive effort against the Bears)
“I feel like we made good plays. We got the ball back to the offense, we had turnovers, we made big plays when we needed to do it, and we came away with a win.”

I read an old article on Martz. I dunno why.

He was such an odd one. Such a bundle of strengths and weaknesses.

Who the hell else could have gotten Mike Furrey to catch 98 passes. 98.

Faulk said Martz was not a failure in Detroit, btw.

w
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martz:https://www.mercurynews.com/2008/01/10/49ers-another-view-of-mike-martz-2/

Each agreed to give The Mercury News a scouting report on the offensive coordinator hired by the 49ers this week. The consensus? The big winner with Martz’s arrival is Gore – although not for the reasons you might think.

Faulk, for example, said Gore would flourish not by doing more but by doing less. He said Martz’s knack for relying on other playmakers means defenses will stop loading up on the 49ers’ lone threat.

“The one thing Mike does is find multiple ways to win games,” said Faulk, from Culver City, where he was preparing to go on air as an analyst for the NFL Network.

“There will be times when the defense will be focused on Frank, and that’s the time of the game when you find out whether your third or fourth options were paying attention in practice.

“Are those players prepared? Can they handle the pressure? With Mike, it’s in the details and he’ll find as many ways as he can to win.’

In other words, there will be no repeat of what happened when the 49ers played at Seattle Nov. 12. On fourth-and-1, everybody knew Gore would get the ball. The Seahawks pummeled him for no gain.

“Mike will move him around,” Warner said from his home in Arizona, where he now serves as quarterback for the Cardinals. “Mike will get the most of Frank because Gore is a tremendous player, and he finds creative ways to use his playmakers.”

Martz used Faulk all over the field, frequently lining him up as a split end. That’s how the runner wound up joining former 49ers star Roger Craig as the only backs to amass 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season.

Gore has decent hands (114 catches over the past few seasons), although it’s tough to imagine him being as nimble a receiver as Faulk. No matter, Faulk said, because Martz will capitalize on Gore’s other skills.

“Frank is a much better inside runner than I ever was,” Faulk said. “That’s good for Mike because it gives him another weapon.”

Of course, Gore’s performance will be wasted again if the 49ers can’t get more out of their moribund passing game. Alex Smith and Shaun Hill are expected to compete for the starting job, a competition that Coach Mike Nolan has indicated will be left to Martz.

“Mike is the expert on quarterback play, let’s not kid ourselves,” Nolan said.

Regardless of who wins the job, Warner said both quarterbacks will essentially be starting from scratch. He recalled being shocked – and a tad bit offended – when Martz began working with him on basic fundamentals.

“He changed the way I’d been dropping back my whole life,” Warner said.

Most coaches, Warner said, put an emphasis on big strides and getting depth from the line of scrimmage. Martz worried more about rhythm. The coach wanted the ball out at the “top of the drop,” Warner said, and in practice Martz rarely concerned himself with the result of the play. He just wanted to make sure the footwork was correct.

“Every once in a while, you’d like to get credit for making a good throw,” Warner recalled with a laugh. “But it was all about timing.”

Martz had terrific receivers to work with in St. Louis, namely Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce.

The 49ers have – well, no one like that. Their top wideout, Arnaz Battle, ranked 62nd in the NFL for receptions.

But Warner and Faulk insisted that Martz could find untapped potential in some players. The previously obscure Mike Furrey, for example, caught 98 passes for 1,086 yards after Martz arrived in Detroit in 2006.

“I think what I liked most was his ability to instill confidence in the players,” Warner said. “He had confidence in us no matter what, that he was going to put the ball in our hands. His philosophy was, ‘You guys dictate the outcome of the game.’ When he put that confidence in us, we wanted to reward him.”

Confidence, incidentally, is not something Martz lacks in himself. His famously brash personality already has raised questions about whether he can coexist with Nolan, who isn’t exactly the poster boy for humility.

Martz’s ego is no myth. Warner and Faulk both stressed that the coach wants things done precisely his way, right down to the small stuff.

For all Martz’s bluster, though, Faulk said the coach won over the locker room by never criticizing a player in the media. Instead, Martz freely shouldered the blame for his own mistakes.

“He’s a very confident coach, but he’s accountable,” Faulk said. “He would stand before players and say, ‘I messed that up. I should have made a better call there.’ Most coaches just don’t do that.”

Martz apparently did his fair share of messing up in Detroit. He was fired as the offensive coordinator after two seasons.

He had resurrected the Lions’ passing game, taking a unit that ranked No. 26 in 2005 and delivering two top-10 finishes. But Martz’s running game was horrible both seasons, finishing 32nd in ’06 and 31st in ’07.

Why didn’t it work out for Martz in Detroit?

“Who said it didn’t work out,” Faulk protested. “It was very difficult for the offense because the defense wasn’t getting off the field. The Lions had the feeling that they had to score, that they had to push it, that they had to put the ball in the air.

“In San Francisco, it won’t be like that. He’ll have more time to be patient with the running game.’

Warner, too, predicted things would work for Martz and the 49ers. That’s a bittersweet reaction for someone who happens to play in the same division.

“He’ll get it going,” Warner said. “I just hope it takes him a few years.”

Rams’ run game, with or without Todd Gurley, searches for identity

Lindsey Thiry

https://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-rams/post/_/id/40779/rams-run-game-with-or-without-todd-gurley-searches-for-identity

THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — Throughout the offseason, coach Sean McVay remained adamant that running back Todd Gurley would remain the focal point of the Los Angeles Rams offense.

But through five games, the Rams’ former NFL Offensive Player of the Year is just another player in an offense that has appeared in flux throughout a 3-2 start.

“What we are trying to figure out is what’s the best identity for this 2019 Rams football team and ultimately the offense,” said McVay, when asked if his offense has appeared how he envisioned before the season. “It’s really about us finding ways to just be efficient.”

The Rams’ challenge in establishing the run could grow Sunday, when they face an undefeated San Francisco 49ers team with a top-five rushing defense that is holding opponents to an average of 82 rushing yards per game.

Uncertainty remains about the status of Gurley, who suffered a thigh contusion in last Thursday’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

“What’s today — Thursday?” Gurley asked, on Thursday. “I got Friday, Saturday. But just worrying about trying to just get back right and make that decision when the time comes.”

This season, the Rams have been slow to commit to the run and quick to rely on the arm of quarterback Jared Goff, who has passed for 1,649 yards and seven touchdowns, with seven interceptions. The Rams’ passing offense ranks second in the league with 317.4 yards per game, while ranking 22nd in rushing yards with 96.2 per game. Last season they ranked fifth in passing (281.7) and third in rushing (139.4).

“As a quarterback you love throwing the ball,” Goff said. “But you do know, especially in the NFL, it’s not the best recipe for success to be throwing it so many times.”

The offense has accounted for 222 pass plays to 115 runs plays.

“A lot of instances, what I’m most interested in for our offense is efficiency, scoring points and moving the football,” said McVay, when asked about the play discrepancy. “You’d like to be able to have a balance, but our job is to move the ball and score points.”

Before the season, the Rams stockpiled running backs. Along with Gurley, who last season signed a four-year, $60-million extension with $45 million guaranteed, the Rams matched an offer sheet from the Detroit Lions to bring back restricted free agent Malcolm Brown for two years and $3.3 million. They also selected Darrell Henderson in the third round from Memphis.

Even if Gurley assumed a decreased role in an attempt to keep him fresh, it appeared that the Rams’ running game would remain robust.

That hasn’t necessarily been the case, in part, because of circumstance — the Rams trailed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21-0 in the second quarter of a Week 4 loss and abandoned the run — but also by design.

This season, the Rams have gone with a designed run on 31 percent of their plays, which ranks 28th in the NFL and is down from McVay’s first two seasons as the Rams coach when he went with a designed run 42 percent of the time.

In the first half of games, they are going with a designed run 28 percent of the time, a higher rate than only the Kansas City Chiefs, who are at 24 percent, according to ESPN Stats and Information Research.

Gurley is coming off arguably his best game of the season in the loss to the Seahawks, when he rushed for 51 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries. McVay wasted no time getting Gurley into a rhythm, calling for runs on the first two plays.

“We wanted to get him going,” McVay said, adding later, “That opened up some things in the pass game.”

Despite playing an average of four fewer snaps per game than last season, Gurley has maintained a lion’s share of the workload. In five games, he has rushed for 270 yards and five touchdowns on 64 carries.

But he has been spelled at a more frequent rate than in past seasons. Brown is averaging five more snaps per game than in 2018 and has rushed for 114 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries.

“I think,” Brown said, with a chuckle, when asked to assess the running game, “it’s been cool. We just go out there and run the plays that are being called, for real. That’s it.”

Henderson, who in April McVay called the “change-of-pace back” he’s been searching for, has played two offensive snaps, both in the season opener.

“That’s one of those things that we’re going to look at and are evaluating,” McVay said about Henderson’s role. “It’s our job and it’s my job to make sure we find a way to continue to develop him and give him an opportunity, because I think he is a guy who can help us, whether it’s immediately or whether it’s later on in the season.”

Said Henderson: “It’s all about being patient. I’m just being patient, waiting my time and making sure I’m ready whenever my number is called.”

Whoever is playing, however many run plays are called, Gurley said there’s only one bottom line.

“As long as you’re winning games, that’s all that really matters.”

I found this very interesting.

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20191001-the-bias-behind-the-worlds-greatest-catastrophes

The outcome bias erodes your sense of risk and makes you blind to error, explaining everything from fatal plane crashes to the Columbia crash and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

By David Robson
2nd October 2019
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Imagine a pilot is taking a familiar flight along a known route, during which the weather takes a turn for the worst. She knows that flying through the storm comes with some serious risks – and according to her training, she should take a detour or return. But she has flown the same route before, in similar weather – and she hadn’t experienced any problems then. Should she continue? Or should she turn back?

If you believe that she is safe to fly on, then you have fallen for a cognitive quirk known as the “outcome bias”. Studies have shown that we often judge the quality of a decision or behaviour by its endpoint, while ignoring the many mitigating factors that might have contributed to success or failure – and that this can render us oblivious to potentially catastrophic errors in our thinking.

In this example, the decision to take the previous flight was itself very risky – and the pilot may have only avoided an accident through a combination of lucky circumstances. But thanks to the outcome bias, she might ignore this possibility and assume that either the dangers had been overrated, or that it was her extraordinary skill that got her through, leading her to feel even happier taking the risk again in the future. And the more she does it, the less concerned about the danger she becomes.

Besides leading us to become increasingly risky in our decision-making, the outcome bias can lead us to ignore incompetence and unethical behaviour in our colleagues. And the consequences can be truly terrifying, with studies suggesting that it has contributed to many famous catastrophes, including the crash of Nasa’s Columbia shuttle and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

The end, not the means

Like much of our understanding of human irrationality, the outcome bias was first observed in the 1980s, with a seminal study of medical decision-making.

Participants were given descriptions of various scenarios, including the risks and benefits of the different procedures, and then asked to rate the quality of the doctors’ judgement.

The participants were told about a doctor’s choice to offer a patient a heart bypass, for instance – potentially adding many more years of good health, but with a small chance of death during the operation. Perhaps predictably, the participants judged the doctor’s decision far more harshly if they were told the patient subsequently died than when they were told that the patient lived – even though the benefits and risks were exactly the same in each case.

The outcome bias is so deeply ingrained in our brains that it’s easy to understand why they would feel that the doctor should be punished for the patient’s death. Yet the participants’ reasoning is not logical, since there would have been no better way for the doctor to have weighed up that evidence – at the time of making the decision there was every chance the operation would have been a success. Once you know about the tragedy, however, it’s hard to escape that nagging feeling that the doctor was nevertheless at fault – leading the participants to question his competence.

Negative results lead us to blame someone for events that were clearly beyond their control, even when we know all the facts that excuse their decision-making

“We just have a hard time dissociating the random events that, along with the quality of the decision, jointly contribute to the outcome,” explains Krishna Savani at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

The finding, published in 1988, has been replicated many times, showing that negative results lead us to blame someone for events that were clearly beyond their control, even when we know all the facts that excuse their decision-making. And we now know that the opposite is also true: thanks to the outcome bias, a positive result can lead us to ignore flawed decision-making that should be kept in check, giving people a free pass for unacceptable behaviour.

In one experiment by Francesca Gino at Harvard Business School, participants were told a story about a scientist who fudged their results to prove the efficacy of a drug they were testing. Gino found that the participants were less critical of the scientist’s behaviour if the drug turned out to be safe and effective than if it turned out to have dangerous side effects. Ideally, of course, you would judge both situations equally harshly – since an employee who behaves so irresponsibly could be a serious liability in the future.

Such flawed thinking is a serious issue when considering things like promotion. It means that an investor, say, could be rewarded for a lucky streak in their performance even if there is clear evidence of incompetent or unethical behaviour, since their boss is unable to disconnect their decision-making from their results. Conversely, it shows how a failure can subtly harm your reputation even if there is clear evidence that you had acted appropriately based on the information at hand.

“It’s a big problem that people are either being praised, or being blamed, for events that were largely determined by chance,” says Savani. “And this is relevant for government policy makers, for business managers – for anyone who’s making a decision.”

The outcome bias may even affect our understand of sport. Arturo Rodriguez at the University of Chile recently examined pundits’ ratings of footballers on Goal.com. In games that had to be decided by penalty shootouts, he found that the results of those few short minutes at the end of the game swayed the experts’ judgements of the players’ performance throughout the whole match. Crucially, that was even true for the players who hadn’t scored any goals. “The result of the shoot-out had a significant impact on the individual evaluation of the players – even if they didn’t participate in it,” Rodriguez says. They could simply bask in the victory of others.

Near misses

The outcome bias’s most serious consequences, however, concern our perceptions of risk.

One study of general aviation, for instance, examined pilots’ evaluations of flying under perilous weather conditions with poor visibility. It found that pilots were more likely to underestimate the dangers of the flight if they had just heard that another pilot had successfully made it through the same route. In reality, there is no guarantee that their success would mean a safe passage for the second flight – they may have only made it through by luck – but the outcome bias means that the pilots overlooked this fact.

Catherine Tinsley, at Georgetown University, has found a similar pattern in people’s responses to natural disasters like hurricanes. If someone weathers one storm unscathed, they become less likely to purchase flood insurance before the next disaster, for instance.

Tinsley’s later research suggests that this phenomenon may explain many organisational failings and catastrophes too. The crash of Nasa’s Columbia shuttle was caused by foam insulation breaking off an external tank during the launch, creating debris that struck a hole through the wing of the orbiter. The foam had broken from the insulation on many previous flights, however – but due to lucky circumstance it had never before created enough damage to cause a crash.

Inspired by these findings, Tinsley’s team asked participants to consider a hypothetical mission with a near miss and to rate the project leader’s competence. She found that emphasising factors like safety, and the organisation’s visibility, meant that people were more likely to spot the event as a warning sign of a potential danger. The participants were also more conscious of the latent danger if they were told they would have to explain their judgement to a senior manager. Given these findings, organisations should emphasise everyone’s responsibility for spotting latent risks and reward people for reporting them.

Savani agrees that we can protect ourselves from the outcome bias. He has found, for instance, that priming people to think more carefully about the context surrounding a decision or behaviour can render them less susceptible to the outcome effect. The aim should be to think about the particular circumstances in which it was made and to recognise the factors, including chance, that might have contributed to the end result.

One way to do this is to engage in counter-factual thinking when assessing your or someone else’s performance, he says. What factors might have caused that different outcome? And would you still rate the decision or process the same way, if that had occurred?

Consider that case of the scientist who was fudging their drug results. Even if the drug was safe in the end, imagining the worst-case scenario – with patient deaths – would make you more conscious of the risks he was taking. Similarly, if you were that pilot who chose to fly in unsuitable conditions, you might look at each flight to examine any risks you were taking and to think through how that might have played out in different circumstances.

Whether you are an investor, a pilot or a Nasa scientist, these strategies to avoid the outcome bias will help prevent a chance success from blinding you to dangers in front of your eyes. Life is a gamble, but you can at least stack the odds in your favour, rather than allowing your mind to lull you into a false sense of security.

—

David Robson is a writer based in London and Barcelona. His first book, The Intelligence Trap: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things, is out now. He is d_a_robson on Twitter.

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Los Angeles Rams Head Coach Sean McVay Conference Call – Wednesday, September 11, 2019

The last time you guys played (it was a) pretty high stakes, high emotion type of ending. Does that matter at all in your mind this week with the Saints coming back to L.A.?
“No. I think if anything, what it does is it continues to give you a great amount of respect for the caliber of football team that they are. Well coached, great players all over the place. I think really more than anything, just having played them twice last year, just makes you realize what a great football team it is coming in at our place and what a high level of game we’re going to need to play to compete with them.”

The Saints and Rams have played three times now in the past two years – four if you include a preseason game. Does that familiarity, I mean, is it almost like a division game at this point, just with the amount of times you guys have played each other lately?
“Well, we’ve seen each other a lot, but I think this is a great football team. They’ve done an excellent job. They’ve had some consistency and continuity on both sides of the ball in terms of obviously with Sean (Payton) running the offense and then coach (Dennis) Allen running the defense, transition with coach (Darren) Rizzi on the special teams. But one of the things that you see that’s consistent in all three phases, (they are) very sound, fundamentals, techniques, good schemes, great coaching and great players. You see why they’re the reigning No. 1 seed in the NFC and why they were one of the best teams in football and why they still are this year.”

The Saints are getting David Onyemata back from a suspension. You guys saw a lot of him last year. Do you have to account for that this week when you’re preparing for a team that Week 1 you didn’t see any of that guy in there?
“Absolutely. Yeah. He’s a really productive player. I think when you just look at their front across the board, you see why they were one of the top rush defenses in the league. And really when you look at the latter half of the year starting when we played them and then going on until the end of the season, they were one of the best defenses in the NFL. I thought they played at a really high level. They’re physical. Coach Allen does a great job mixing it up and then when you got great players to match it, it’s a great challenge and getting David back will definitely give them a boost on the interior for sure.”

We haven’t really necessarily been following it too closely with Todd (Gurley) and the whole knee thing, but it looked like he played pretty well last week. How would you kind of assess that performance for him?
“He played well. It was good to get him in the flow. I thought he did a great job closing out the game right under a hundred yards. He was productive, but there’s always some things we can improve on. It was great to be able to have Todd out there looking like the Todd that we all know and love.”

When you’re watching Alvin Kamara either from afar or up-close, what’s kind of the one thing, if there is one thing, that really kind of separates him from other people? What makes him special in your eyes?
“The versatility and the elite balance. You talk about a guy that’s got an unbelievable forward body lean. He’s always breaking tackles going forward. I’ve heard somebody refer to him that he’s like a kickstand guy. It’s like he’s got an extra leg. He’s able to just stay so balanced and so grounded. He’s got incredible hands. He’s got a great feel for space. And when he’s running the football, he’s one of the best in the league for a reason and one of the most versatile and he’s one of the best players in this league. And it shows up week in and week out.”

Have you ever had a chance to sit down and talk football with Drew Brees and just kind of pick a brain that’s been around the game for 20 years now?
“You know what? I really haven’t and I’ve heard so many great things about him from guys like Aaron Kromer and obviously when I talked to coach Payton about him and you can just see from afar, he is somebody that I have an unbelievable amount of respect for the way he handles himself, the way he leads and obviously the way he plays his game. I am a coach but I’m also a fan of this game and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a huge fan of Drew Brees.”

***

Los Angeles Rams HC Sean McVay, September 11 press conference

(On if he has an update on S Eric Weddle’s injury)

“He (S Eric Weddle) is feeling good. I think he was asymptomatic, so he’s on track. He has to go through everything as far as passing everything that we need. I anticipate him being ready to go (on Sunday).”

(On if Weddle will practice on Wednesday)

“I haven’t had a chance to talk to (Senior Director, Sports Medicine and Performance) Reggie (Scott) about that yet.”

(On if Weddle has to change his helmet following the injury)

“That would be something, really as much as anything, for the laceration. Just to make sure because he got some stitches in his head. Those are things we’ll make sure we get squared away, so hopefully that’s not an issue that comes up in the future.”

(On if he sat down and spoke with CB Nickell Robey-Coleman about the controversial play in the 2018 NFC Championship game)

“Not really. We kind of talked about it as a team. It was something that, we all know what it looked like. Obviously, nobody’s going to sit here and say that wasn’t a pass interference and that’s why it led to some rules being changed. I think everybody, even though that play benefitted our team, nobody wants anything but a fair game. Those clear and obvious plays that we can avoid, we want to be able to do that and that’s exactly how we feel as a team, too.”

(On him saying the team wouldn’t complain when a missed call benefits his team)

“We’re not going to complain either way. That happened to end up working to our advantage. We talked about it all the time, ‘It’s got to be that next play mindset mentality.’ That was one that definitely benefitted us. But, there’s a lot of plays in a game and I think it’s good that the competition committee made the effort to be able to try to avoid some of those things happening in the future, and that’s exactly what we all want.”

(On the emotions surrounding Sunday’s game against New Orleans and if he has experience with more emotionally-filled games)

“It’s game two. It’s a great team coming in. For us, we play each game as its own entity. This is a great football team – they were the one-seed in the NFC for a reason, had a great win against a really good football team on Monday night where you can see they’re a resilient football team. They’re very well coached, they’ve got great players. It’s going to be a great challenge and we’re excited about it.”

(On if coaches and players view Sunday’s game differently than fans)

“I’m not sure. It’s hard to say. I think our players, our coaches know the level of urgency that’s going to be needed for us to be at our best in order to give ourselves a chance to compete and hopefully come out of this thing 2-0.”

(On if he watched the end of New Orleans’ Week 1 game and if he was surprised with how Saints QB Drew Brees played at the end of the game)

“I thought it was a really impressive operation. Whether it be (Saints Head) Coach (Sean) Payton managing the clock, (Saints QB) Drew’s (Brees) command, his ability to recognize the structure where No. 2 (Saints receiver) is kind of off and outside and bang it to (Saints WR Ted) Ginn (Jr.) in the slot and be able to get down and be able to use that timeout. It was a really sharp team executing at a high level in a crunch time moment. All you can do is really tip your hat to them and say, ‘That was an impressive operation right there.’”

(On if he will change the approach during practice this week for RB Todd Gurley II)

“It’ll be kind of that every other day. We’ll keep a similar deal. He (RB Todd Gurley II) is going to go – he just went in the walk-thru and he’s feeling good. A lot of it is predicated on – if it’s a normal three-day work week, he’ll work two out of those three days. That was kind of the plan that we had going in. Most importantly is how he’s feeling. He’s feeling good, I thought that he got stronger as the game progressed. It’s like anything else – and it’s not exclusive to Todd – really, our team just getting in football shape. Especially when you look at the approach that we took, playing the amount of snaps that we did in the kind of weather. I thought that was a great first opportunity for us to kind of get ourselves in game shape. You can’t ever really recreate those types of situations that occur when you’re playing live football and the guys that we’re counting on playing 65 to 70 snaps. This week’s going to be a great challenge as well.”

(On what he believes happened with Gurley in the 2018 NFC Championship game)

“What I remember the most is how much respect I had for the way that he (RB Todd Gurley II) handled it. I think that’s what separates really elite people, is being able to handle adversity and take ownership for it. Know that there’s some things that I could have done better for him, he could have done better overall. I thought he made a key touchdown run in the two-minute situation at the end of the first half. He had some unbelievably timely pick-ups at the end of the game when we’re driving to get into field goal range. What is as impressive as anything is you’re talking about a guy that’s a first team All-Pro, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year the year before, and just says, ‘Hey, I didn’t play up to the level that I expect to. My teammates lifted me up.’ You can’t say anything but, ‘Man, I respect Todd Gurley for the way he handled that.’”

(On what kind of mindset rookie S Taylor Rapp has brought to the team)

“I would say he (S Taylor Rapp) is a rookie mature beyond his years, and that was one of the things that we liked so much about him coming out. You could just see the versatility, the instincts, the short-spaced quickness, just the feel for the game that he had with the way that they utilized him at (the University of) Washington. He’s gotten more and more comfortable. He’s a guy that we consistently talked about because he deserved to be talked about based on just getting better every single day. The best way that you could articulate what he is, he’s a rookie that’s not playing like a rookie. He’s a mature player and he’s just a good football player that has a great feel for the game and that you trust in those situations and he delivered in a big way.”

(On what he sees from Saints RB Alvin Kamara and if previously facing Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey prepares them for facing Kamara)

“You’re talking about two of the most complete backs in the league (Saints RB Alvin Kamara and Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey). The versatility, what a great job McCaffrey did. You can see – and really, Kamara is the same type of deal. You look at some of the runs that he’s making, you look at the way that he’s able to be a threat out of the backfield. These are, arguably, two of the most complete backs in the NFL. Unbelievable challenge again for us and they (New Orleans) do a great job utilizing him (Kamara) getting him in space. (Saints QB) Drew’s (Brees) is going to find him, they’ve got creative run schemes to get him involved and then they’ll move him all over the formation. It’s like finding ‘Where’s Waldo?’ (Saints Head) Coach (Sean) Payton does an excellent job with that.”

(On how he defines success against players like Kamara and McCaffrey)

“That’s a good question. I would answer that differently, based on each play and the situation. I think, ultimately, we want to protect them from scoring points and try to limit the explosives. This is a great football team, a great offense coming in. First-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback – it’s a great system that they run and they’ve elite playmakers. It’s going to be a great challenge. Their operation is as impressive as what you’ll see, too, in terms of the different personnel groupings, the way that they stress you. They understand exactly what they’re doing and that’s why they’ve been at the top of the league, really, since (Saints Head Coach) Sean (Payton) and (Saints QB) Drew (Brees) have been there for the last handful of years.”

(On how DT Aaron Donald opens up opportunities for other players on the Rams’ defense)

“Really, you kind of just mentioned it. When somebody’s going to influence and affect that much attention, it’s going to create some solo opportunities. Some of the movements – one of (OLB) Dante’s (Fowler Jr.) sacks came on a two-man game between those two, where (DT) Aaron (Donald) basically occupied the guard and the tackle and did a great job of accelerating underneath and being able to finish that play. Aaron is a special player and I think a lot of his affect on the game might not even be determined based on him getting the sacks and the production, but what he does to make other people’s job a little bit easier and that’s what makes him great.”

(On Donald being frustrated following the game and if he has to talk to Donald to help him understand his impact on the game)

“I think he (DT Aaron Donald) is one of the best in the world at what he does. He’s always looking to get better. I think he was pleased with the win. He’s the ultimate team player, he was pleased with the win, but he has a high level of expectation for himself and what he demands of himself snap in and snap out. I think what’s so special about Aaron, is I don’t think anybody has higher expectations for Aaron than Aaron does. I’m never going to pull back on what he’s been doing, especially when it’s always with the right intentions and the right approach, and I think that’s one of the elite traits that he does have.”

(On what stood out about the offensive drive at the end of the last year’s game against the Saints)

“It was a bunch of big-time, crunch-time throws. You look at a big-time play by (TE) Gerald Everett, (WR) Josh Reynolds had a couple big catches. I thought (QB) Jared (Goff) did a great job being able to move in the pocket. Had a big third down-and-three conversion to (WR) Robert Woods breaking over the middle. Then, a situation where at the end, they kind of zeroed us. Fortunately, it went incomplete and then (K) Greg’s (Zuerlein) able to come in and knock it through and send it into overtime. It was blur, I remember just from watching the tape. The fans were going crazy, it was an unbelievable atmosphere. It was a great job by our players demonstrating poise in a crunch time moment.”

(On how hard it is to execute in game situations like last year’s offensive drive at the end of the NFC Championship game)

“I think it’s really hard. Especially when you’re in the absence of your verbal communication. Everything’s visual right there. All 11 being on the same page, that’s a stressful environment that our players handled really well right there.”

(On when he talked to the team about the controversy)

“Right after. You address it. You could ask (CB) Nickell Robey(-Coleman). He knows that was a pass interference. In the moment that was kind of what was officiated and you’ve got to just kind of play those next snaps and there was a lot of snaps after that as well.”

(On what the point of talking to the players was)

“It was, ‘Hey, we know exactly what occurred. Fortunately, that worked out for us, but let’s not make any bigger deal than what it is. All we can do is control what we can control and those things are out of our control.’ You don’t run away from the fact that that was a call that did benefit us. You address it and then you keep it moving.”

(On if he has seen Robey-Coleman improve)

“He’s always been a good player. That was one of those situations that they quick snapped the rail from the…the backs running a rail or the receivers running a rail route out of the backfield and he was just kind of urgently reacting to the play and kind of collided with him right there. I don’t think he intentionally ran into him before. He’s been a really competitive nickel all along. We want to try to avoid those clear and obvious and the egregious penalties.”

(On if he thought that Goff’s performance in overtime with directing those drives got a little lost)

“I do. I agree. I think so. It can’t be understated what a tough atmosphere, what elements that he was dealing with to be able to even be able to get some yards. They’re a really good defense too. For him to make some of the plays, I definitely think was a big-time representation of him and the ability to handle some of those tough moments. All games don’t always go our way, but that was a great example and reflection of a guy that’s mentally tough and did a great job. Without a lot of the plays he makes, we don’t end up winning that game for sure.”

***

Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff, September 11 press conference

(On what he took away from the season opener against Carolina and which aspects of his game he thinks he need to improve moving forward)

“I’d like to be a little bit better in a lot of different places. I think it was a good start for our team and a good win for us to start off the year. Personally, I could knock some rust off and be a little better than that.”

(On what he wants to work on when ‘knocking the rust off’)

“Everything. I think it’s never one thing in particular, it’s always just trying to get better, trying to continue to put the ball in my receivers’ hands and just continue to get better.”

(On how he has grown since his first meeting against Saints QB Drew Brees)

“I think I’ve talked about this, but, the first time we played them, you’re kind of in awe of playing (Saints QB) Drew Brees and everything that goes along with it when I was a rookie – how great he is, how great his career has been. I think at this point now, I feel like we’re more peers. I think at the Pro Bowl with him we were able to experience that with him. Me and him have become friends and I’m a big fan of his.”

(On if he saw the end of the Saints game on Monday)

“It was great.”

(If he expected Brees to bring the Saints back down the field to win the game)

“Yeah. It was a tough situation, but he did it and that’s why he’s so great. They’re never out of it and I think we know that. With him behind center, they’re never out of it. Have to try to score a lot of points to beat them.”

(On what was going through his head when he took the field before leading the Rams to a game-tying drive in the NFC Championship game)

“I really wanted to score a touchdown, honestly. I wanted to go down there and punch one in and finish the game down there with less than 30 seconds and not give them much of a chance to get anything back. But, we had to settle with a field goal and (K Greg Zuerlein) hit a long one and the rest is history. Just tried to go out there and execute.”

(On if he remembers where he was on the sideline when S John Johnson III recorded an interception in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship game)

“Yeah, I remember being on the sideline and you feel pretty helpless that you’re kind of at the mercy of whatever they do offensively. But, (I was) so confident in our defense. At that time they had been playing so well in the second half and were kind of so close to a turnover for so long. You kind of felt like, ‘Okay, we might have a chance to get one here.’ Sure enough, the ball went up in the air – and that was a chance – and ‘John-John’ (S John Johnson III) made a play. Again, (K) Greg (Zuerlein) knocks in the field goal and the rest of history.”

(On what it was like seeing OLB Dante Fowler Jr. hit the quarterback before the interception)

“It’s great. (OLB) Dante (Fowler Jr.) is a great player for us, was able to get in there and is someone we were happy to add halfway through the year and has made a lot of great plays since he’s been here.”

(On how the Rams approach the game with the Saints on Sunday)

“We’re trying to go 2-0. I think that would be their mindset as well. They’re trying to win the game just like we are. There’s nothing that we’re taking from last year as motivation, if they are, great. It’s just another game for us and it’s our home opener after not being at home in a long time. Excited to see our fans, it’ll be a big one and it’ll be a lot of fun.”

(On if he feels the Rams benefitted from facing Carolina’s zone defense approach in Week 1)

“I think it was a game that was testing our patience for sure. It was something where they were getting a lot of depth in the secondary and for whatever reason we had a hard time getting over the top. Just had to continue to take the completions underneath. If that’s what is helping us move the offense forward and win the game, I’m all for it and last week it was. Just continue to stay patient and I thought for myself, me and (Rams Head Coach) Sean (McVay) joked about it earlier in the week, but it was a mature game for both him and myself, just taking what they gave us and not getting impatient.”

(On what makes his receiving core quiet achievers)

“They are all just extremely hard workers and understand a bigger goal. I think I’m very lucky to have all three, really all four of them and everything that they do. I think it’s a very unique situation where all three of them are unselfish. I’ve never been on a team where is like that. Where one guy goes for 150 (yards) and one guy has one catch, and the one guy with one catch couldn’t care. If we win the game, he doesn’t care at all about the numbers. It’s a very unique situation where I think, all three of them individually, on their own, growing up through football have always been that way and we happened to get them all on the same team. They feed off each other, they work each other, and I think on the practice field you see it every day. I’ve experienced a few different receiver groups, but I can’t imagine another receiver group that works as hard as they do every day.”

(On if it takes a load off his shoulders as a quarterback when he has receivers that work as hard as they do)

“I don’t have to push them. I don’t have to say ‘Hey I need you to run harder here. I need you to work harder here.’ There’s never been any of that. It definitely takes a big weight off my shoulders and off the team’s shoulders. I think when you look out and you see them working hard, it brings everyone along. Those guys are three of the silent leaders of the team, I think.”

(On if he appreciates not having drama with his wide receiver group)

“Yeah, again, I think I’m just very lucky to be in a unique situation with those three. I try to show my gratefulness every day. I do realize it is rare, very rare to have three guys that, not only work that hard, but are of their talent level and are as selfless as they are. They want to block. They want to win and don’t care about their numbers and they want to other person to succeed. It’s very rare, I’m very lucky.”

(On what it’s like having WR Cooper Kupp back)

“He looked great, I thought he did a great job. For me personally, he’s always been a guy I’ve enjoyed throwing to. He looked great and I’m glad he’s back out there.”

(On if he had anything to say to RB Todd Gurley after last season’s NFC Championship game)

“Not anything that I wouldn’t normally. It was just very normal. I think I’ve stressed it before, but he’s such a great teammate and great person. He handles everything with such class and the way that you’re supposed to. I couldn’t be more proud of him for the way he’s handled everything over the last year. I’m glad he came out and did his thing the other day. I expect the same moving forward, I know he does too. I think he feels pretty good.”