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    Avatar photojoemad
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    two New Yorker articles on this very sad story….

    Nov 20 On the verdict from late last week

    July 5 on the perception that militants becoming more and more perceived as patriotic…..

    URL = https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/07/05/kyle-rittenhouse-american-vigilante

    Reporter at Large
    July 5, 2021 Issue
    Kyle Rittenhouse, American Vigilante
    After he killed two people in Kenosha, opportunists turned his case into a polarizing spectacle.
    By Paige Williams

    The proliferation of digital video has exposed abuses of power that in the past often remained hidden. It has also allowed people to watch shocking footage and make pronouncements about it on social media before knowing all the facts. Last summer, Americans were still reeling from the excruciating sight of a Minneapolis police officer slowly killing George Floyd when another violent encounter unfolded, with seemingly similar clarity. On the afternoon of Sunday, August 23rd, three police officers tried to arrest a man outside a fourplex in Kenosha, Wisconsin. A neighbor started recording on his phone when he saw the officers, who were white, scuffling with the man, who was Black. The confrontation began behind a parked S.U.V., so initially the neighbor couldn’t see everything. Then the man broke free, went around the vehicle, and opened the driver’s door. One officer grabbed him by his tank top and shot him seven times, from behind.

    Kenosha did not equip officers with body cameras, and so the neighbor’s footage was the primary visual documentation of the shooting. The victim, Jacob Blake, survived, but the incident was instantly seen as another grim example of an urgent problem: according to a recent Harvard study, Black people are more than three times as likely as white people to be killed during a police encounter. The comedian Kevin Hart tweeted, “What’s the justification for 7 shots?????”

    After Floyd’s death, Kenosha was among the scores of American cities where citizens marched in protest. Hundreds of people now assembled for Blake, a lanky twenty-nine-year-old who had been staying at the fourplex with his fiancée, Laquisha Booker. They had several sons, and the shooting had occurred on the eighth birthday of the oldest, Izreal. Blake had decorated the apartment for a party, and was cooking hot dogs when he and Booker started quarrelling. Blake left in the S.U.V.—Booker’s rental car. “Me and my sisters just saw him skirt off in it,” Booker told a 911 dispatcher. Blake returned, but when the police arrived he was leaving again—this time with the children. His sons witnessed the shooting from the back seat.

    The protesters gathered outside the Kenosha County Courthouse, a limestone building facing Civic Center Park, an area surrounded by businesses and residences. Many people marched peacefully and held signs. But, that night and the next, rioters hurled bricks and fireworks at law-enforcement officers. Looters smashed shopwindows, and a Department of Corrections building was burned down. When an older man with a fire extinguisher confronted rioters, someone struck him with a hard object, splitting his nose and breaking his jaw. President Donald Trump had been highlighting the destructive aspects of such protests in order to malign the Black Lives Matter movement. At a Papa John’s, a man stood behind a shattered window and yelled, “Are they trying to get Trump reëlected?” A demonstrator replied, “These people don’t represent our movement!” But, at another moment, when a man told protesters, “What y’all don’t fucking understand is that people have their lives in these businesses,” a woman screamed back, “So what?”

    Right-wing news outlets packaged the fieriest images as evidence of ruinous policies in Democratic-run cities, and criticized the mainstream media’s refusal to acknowledge the violence. Joan Donovan, the chief of research at Harvard’s Shorenstein Center, identified One America News Network, Glenn Beck on BlazeTV, and Fox News—particularly the hosts Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity—as promulgators of “riot porn.” Writing in MIT Technology Review, Donovan said that such footage, designed to “overwhelm the sense-making capacity” of viewers, inspired militias and vigilantes to “live out fantasies of taking justice into their own hands.”

    After Kenosha’s march for George Floyd, on May 31st, Kevin Mathewson, a former city alderman who had sometimes brought a handgun to city-council meetings, decided that the police needed civilian reinforcements. He started the Kenosha Guard, which was less a militia than an impulse with a Facebook page. But on August 25th, as the city braced for a third night of protests in the wake of Blake’s shooting, Mathewson, who is a private investigator, posted a call for “Armed Citizens to Protect our Lives and Property.” He invited “patriots” to meet him at the courthouse at 6 p.m., to defend Kenosha from “evil thugs.”

    Mathewson’s post caught the attention of Kristan Harris, a streamer whose work included conspiracy content of the Pizzagate variety. All summer, he had been live-streaming protests, calling himself a “citizen journalist.” Harris wrote a blurb about the Kenosha Guard, which got picked up by Infowars. On Facebook, thousands of people indicated interest in joining Mathewson at the courthouse. Mathewson posted an open letter to Kenosha’s police chief, calling himself the “commander” of the Kenosha Guard and warning, “Do not have your officers tell us to go home under threat of arrest.”

    Mathewson’s “Armed Citizens” post elicited such comments as “kill looters and rioters.” Facebook allowed the page to stand even after receiving well over four hundred complaints. A crowd was building when Mathewson, in a Chuck Norris T-shirt, showed up at the courthouse with a semi-automatic rifle. He soon went home, but throughout the evening others used his Facebook page, or similar ones, to spread rumors. One commenter predicted that if armed “untrained civilians” got scared, “someone’s getting shot.”

    That night in Kenosha, as at many racial-justice protests, the crowd was a confusing mélange: B.L.M. activists, antifascists in black bloc, right-wing extremists in camouflage. Across factions, people carried guns, some more visibly than others. It was often challenging to tell friend from foe.

    South of the courthouse, a group of libertarians flanked the gas pumps of the Ultimate Convenience Center. Dressed in camo, they were heavily armed, if not necessarily experienced: one member mocked another for holding his rifle wrong.

    Harris, the “citizen journalist,” had shown up, to live-stream. He praised militias as “cool,” but not everyone shared his enthusiasm. A muscular man from Chicago told Harris, “These dudes are larpers.” “larp” refers to “live-action role-playing” games. The guns, though, were real.

    Private militias and paramilitary organizations are illegal in every state, but throughout 2020 militia types inflamed about B.L.M. protests and pandemic lockdowns had been increasingly showing up armed on urban streets. Last June, a group called the New Mexico Civil Guard appeared at a protest in Albuquerque and “defended” a statue of a conquistador. According to the district attorney, the group’s members had trained in combat tactics and presented themselves at the protest as “indistinguishable from authorized military forces.” An armed man joined the militia in trying to drive protesters away, and then shot and injured one of them.

    Mike German, a former F.B.I. special agent who once worked undercover to expose neo-Nazis and is now a fellow at N.Y.U.’s Brennan Center for Justice, told me that domestic extremists have learned that they can receive more “aboveground” support by calling themselves patriots and peacekeepers. Yet, German emphasized, “you can’t just nominate yourself as a security provider.” He compared this approach to tactics in prewar Germany, “when Nazi thugs rallied where they knew they had political opposition—they could attack and get media coverage, and gain a reputation for being tough and scary.”

    Militias often outfit themselves with variants of the AR-15, a high-velocity rifle that has become both a popular sporting gun and a favored weapon of mass shooters. Since 2017, such firearms have been used in at least thirteen mass-casualty incidents. Only a handful of states prohibit citizens from openly carrying AR-style weapons. Even the National Rifle Association once called it unsettling to “see someone sidle up next to you in line for lunch with a 7.62 rifle.” This observation was published on the N.R.A.’s Web site in 2014, at a moment when Texans were ordering coffee at cafés while carrying battle-grade firearms. Two years later, a sniper in Dallas shot and killed five police officers during a B.L.M. demonstration. The city’s police chief publicly reiterated the reason that so many law-enforcement officials oppose open-carry laws: the profusion of visibly armed civilians complicated the task of quickly identifying the shooter.

    An Army veteran named Ryan Balch, who lived near Milwaukee, heard about the Blake protests and decided that he was needed in Kenosha. The Kenosha Guard appeared frivolous to him, so on August 25th he drove to town on his own, equipped with an AR-type rifle. Balch later said that he and some friends had to “infiltrate” the city by circumventing roadblocks: “We were sittin’ low, trying to get past the cops, to get in there and do what we needed to do.”

    Balch spotted a small group of armed volunteers at Car Source, a dealership whose main sales lot was now a landscape of smoldering metal. Despite an eight-o’clock curfew, the volunteers planned to guard the dealership’s two nearby mechanic shops. As Balch later explained in detail online, he “inserted” himself as a “tactical” adviser. He claimed that a Car Source owner “deputized” the group, but civilians have no such power, and law-enforcement agencies don’t grant that authority. (“What a scary, scary thought,” Kenosha County’s sheriff, David Beth, has said.)

    Balch and several others positioned themselves at one of the mechanic shops, a low, flat-topped building. Men with rifles set up on the roof. Balch, who described himself as “anti-establishment,” had been immersed in far-right circles on social media. He seemed to view the police as the enemy, and said that “the cops wouldn’t have been able to defend themselves” against some of the weapons on the roof. According to him, when a police officer stopped and remarked on all the “friendly guns,” he replied, “We’re not here to be friendly to you.”

    After dark, the crowd streamed away from the courthouse, where the police were firing tear gas and rubber bullets. As armored vehicles herded the protesters toward the mechanic shop, one of them said, “We in Call of Duty!”

    Harris and other live-streamers had been chatting on camera with Balch and a member of his cohort: a talkative teen-ager in a backward baseball cap, with a semi-automatic rifle slung across his chest. A videographer said, “So you guys are full-on ready to defend the property?” The teen-ager, whose name was Kyle Rittenhouse, replied, “Yes, we are,” adding, officiously, “Now, if I can ask—can you guys step back?”

    Rittenhouse’s chubby cheeks and high, arched eyebrows gave his face a bemused, childish quality. A first-aid kit dangled at his hip. He explained that he planned to provide first aid to anyone needing it, and said that his gun was for self-protection—“obviously.” He wasn’t old enough to be a certified E.M.T., yet he shouted, “I am an E.M.T.!,” and proclaimed, “If you are injured, come to me! ” Adopting the language of first responders, he told a streamer, “If there’s somebody hurt, I’m running into harm’s way.”

    Rittenhouse’s intentions may well have been lost on demonstrators. In addition to the rifle, he wore an Army-green T-shirt and the Sport Patriot style of Ariat boots: part camouflage, part American flag. For all anyone knew, he or others at Car Source were among the Facebook users who had made such threats as “I have my suppressor on my AR, these fools won’t even know what hit them.”

    According to a theory of social psychology called the “weapons effect,” the mere sight of a gun inspires aggression. In 1967, the psychologists Leonard Berkowitz and Anthony LePage wrote, “In essence, the gun helps pull the trigger.” Their methodology had flaws, but later studies verified their premise. In one U.K. study, people were more inclined to assault a police officer who was visibly armed with a Taser. Brad Bushman, an Ohio State researcher who served on President Barack Obama’s committee on gun violence, told me, “We’ve found that it really doesn’t matter if a good guy or a bad guy is carrying the gun—it creates the bias to interpret things in a hostile way.” Citizens who openly carry firearms “think that they are making the situation safer, but they are making it much more dangerous.”

    In front of the Ultimate Convenience Center, protesters set a dumpster on fire. After a member of the group at the gas station put it out, a demonstrator hurled a flagpole like a javelin. A man in a “Black Lives Matter” mask racked his pistol; another man said, “I say we jack them and take they guns.”

    Protesters pushed the dumpster down the street and approached the mechanic shop, where the figures on the roof presented a menacing image: heavily armed white guys at a Black-justice demonstration, positioned like snipers. One protester decried the “pussies on the roof,” and the dumpster was soon burning again. One of the shop’s armed “guards” ran to extinguish the fire, screaming at the protesters, “You guys wanna fuck around and find out?”

    Demonstrators were complaining that someone on the roof had pointed a “green laser” at them; a laser sight can be attached to a gun, to improve aim. Protesters lobbed stuff at the men on the roof. Rittenhouse stepped before Harris’s camera and claimed that demonstrators were “mixing ammonia, gasoline, and bleach together—and it’s causing an ammonia bomb!” One guard said that he wanted to “pump some rounds,” but someone talked him out of it.

    Videos captured what was happening with surprising thoroughness: multiple angles, decent clarity. Among the crowd was an agitated bald guy in his mid-thirties, with a ginger goatee and an earring. He was wearing a maroon T-shirt, and had brought a plastic shopping bag containing socks, underwear, and deodorant. The man, who suffered from bipolar disorder, had recently been charged with domestic violence, and then had attempted suicide. Hours before the protest, he had been discharged from a psychiatric hospital. He apparently had wandered into the melee on the street, where it was difficult to perceive anything but his rage. At the Ultimate Convenience Center, he confronted the armed men, screaming both “Don’t point no motherfucking gun at me!” and “Shoot me! ”

    A man yelled, “Somebody control him!”

    During the chaos, Rittenhouse moved down the street toward Car Source’s second mechanic shop, where rioters had been smashing car windows. He crossed paths with the angry bald man, who chased him into the shop’s parking area. The man now wore his T-shirt as a head wrap and face mask, leaving his torso bare. Screaming “Fuck you!,” he threw his plastic bag at Rittenhouse’s back. Rittenhouse, holding his rifle, reached some parked cars just as a protester fired a warning shot into the sky. Rittenhouse whirled; the bald man lunged; Rittenhouse fired, four times. The man fell in front of a Buick, wounded in the groin, back, thigh, hand, and head.

    The nearest bystander was Richie McGinniss, the video chief at the Daily Caller, the online publication co-founded by Tucker Carlson. McGinniss, who had been covering protests all summer, had been following the chase so closely that he had nearly been shot himself. He removed his T-shirt and knelt to compress the man’s wounds. Dying, the man breathed in a horrifying growl.

    Rittenhouse stood over McGinniss for half a minute. Amid the sound of more gunfire, he didn’t stoop to check on the injured man or offer his first-aid kit. “Call 911!” McGinniss told him. Rittenhouse called a friend instead. Sprinting out of the parking lot, he said, “I just shot somebody!”

    Demonstrators were yelling: “What’d he do?” “Shot someone!” “Cranium that boy!” Rittenhouse ran down the street toward the whirring lights of police vehicles. To those who had heard only the gunfire and the shouting, he must have resembled a mass shooter: they tend to be heavily armed, white, and male.

    A demonstrator ran up behind Rittenhouse and smacked him in the head. When Rittenhouse tripped and fell, another man executed a flying kick; Rittenhouse fired twice, from the ground, and missed. Another demonstrator whacked him in the neck with the edge of a skateboard and tried to grab his rifle; Rittenhouse shot him in the heart. A third demonstrator approached with a handgun; Rittenhouse shot him in the arm, nearly blowing it off.

    He rose from the asphalt and continued toward the police lights. A man screamed, “That’s what y’all get, acting tough with fucking guns!”

    Rittenhouse tried to flag down armored vehicles that were now moving toward the victims, but they passed him by, even after witnesses pointed out that he’d just shot people. Next, he approached a police cruiser, but an officer inside apparently told him, “No—go.”

    Two men were fatally shot. A third was maimed. Everyone involved in the shootings was white. The astonishing fact that Rittenhouse was allowed to leave the scene underscored the racial double standard that activists had sought to further expose: the police almost certainly wouldn’t have let a Black man pass.

    Clips from Kenosha immediately went viral. Footage of a teen-ager loping around self-importantly with a gun was juxtaposed with video of the second set of shootings. In other posts, he could be seen bragging about his medical bona fides or accepting bottled water tossed from the hatch of an armored law-enforcement vehicle. Officers inside had offered the water just after authorities had gassed the area around Car Source, and before the shootings occurred, with one of them saying, via loudspeaker, “We appreciate you guys.”

    Internet sleuths quickly identified Rittenhouse, and revealed that he was seventeen and lived with his family in an apartment in Antioch, Illinois. His social-media accounts—Facebook, TikTok, Snapchat, Instagram—showed him handling long guns, cheering for Trump in the front row at a campaign rally, and participating in a Police Explorers program for teen-agers. He ardently supported Blue Lives Matter and wore a T-shirt from 5.11 Tactical (“gear for the most demanding missions”).

    The Facebook posts about the Kenosha Guard led some of the sleuths to misapprehend Rittenhouse as a militia member. (He belonged to no such group.) Because he lived in Illinois, people assumed that he had travelled some distance, for nefarious purposes, and had “crossed state lines” with his rifle. (The Rittenhouse apartment was a mile south of the Wisconsin border, and Rittenhouse had been storing his gun in Kenosha, at the house of a friend’s stepfather.) Rittenhouse’s age led some to conclude that his mom had “dropped him off” at the protest. (He drove himself to Kenosha.) One widely shared image showed an armed, camo-clad woman, captioned “terrorist Kyle Rittenhouse’s mother.” (Some other lady, some other place.)

    The day after the shootings, Ayanna Pressley, a Democratic U.S. representative from Massachusetts, tweeted that the shootings had been committed by a “white supremacist domestic terrorist.” This characterization stuck, even after the Anti-Defamation League scrutinized Rittenhouse’s social-media accounts and found no evidence of extremism.

    After years of deepening political polarization, Americans were primed to see whatever they wanted to see in the Kenosha clips. It was beyond question that Rittenhouse had inserted himself into a volatile situation with a gun that he was too young to legally own. The footage also made clear that he’d killed and wounded people. But many liberals went further, characterizing Rittenhouse as someone who’d gone to the protest intending to harm others.

    This view was buttressed when another kind of video surfaced. Weeks before the shootings, Rittenhouse had been hanging out with other teen-agers on the Kenosha waterfront when an argument erupted involving the younger of his two sisters, McKenzie. Reese Granville, a rapper who happened to be cruising past with a friend, filmed the altercation with his phone. (In the video, Granville and his friend could be heard debating what would happen if the police arrived: “It’s all white people, boy. We Black—we goin’ to jail.”) When a girl started to fight with McKenzie, Rittenhouse punched her, repeatedly, from behind. Bystanders broke it up by turning on Rittenhouse: “Don’t put your hands on a female!”

    Conservatives largely ignored the waterfront video. The protest footage had convinced them that Rittenhouse was a patriot who, after months of destructive unrest in U.S. cities, had finally put “Antifa” in check by bravely exercising his Second Amendment rights. Carlson, on Fox News, declared, “How shocked are we that seventeen-year-olds with rifles decided they had to maintain order when no one else would?”

    The glorification extended, weirdly, to Rittenhouse’s street instincts. Gun users praised his “trigger discipline,” noting that he’d fired only when “attacked.” A sportsman in Washington State blogged that Rittenhouse had “accomplished” the feat of hitting “several moving ‘targets’ closing in from multiple angles, throwing things at you, kicking you in the head, and hitting you in the head.” Another fan concocted a macabre “Kyle Drill” at a shooting range. On YouTube, a survivalist praised Rittenhouse’s “mind-set” during “urban warfare.” The worshipful tone intensified when Rittenhouse’s admirers learned more about Joseph Rosenbaum, the first man he’d killed. Rosenbaum wasn’t an antifascist, but he’d spent more than a decade in prison for child molestation. (As a boy, Rosenbaum himself was sexually abused.) After the shooting, someone tried to set up a GoFundMe account related to Rosenbaum, and a user commented, “you were a predator & a piece of shit rest in piss!!!!”

    Shops began selling T-shirts that depicted Rittenhouse with his gun and bore slogans like “Fuck Around and Find Out.” Online, memes spread—“Oh, I shot a pedophile? My bad”—and people declared that Antifa types and other troublemakers deserved to get “Rittenhoused.” The sudden notoriety made a line in one of Rittenhouse’s TikTok bios stand out: “Bruh I’m just tryna be famous.” He’d written the motto as a joke, for an audience of twenty-five.

    There was more to Jacob Blake’s case than the viral video revealed. In 2012, police had charged him with battery and with endangering the life of a child after he had allegedly tried to choke Laquisha Booker and she fell while holding her baby, a son from a previous relationship. “Alcohol abuse appears to be the defendant’s primary problem,” a court document noted, explaining that if Blake “doesn’t drink he tends not to get into trouble.”

    In May, 2020, Booker returned from a party and went to bed. According to police, she awoke to find Blake standing over her; he reached between her legs, sniffed his finger, and said, “Smells like you’ve been with other men.” Then he left, taking her car. Booker called 911. The responding officers found Booker “visibly shaken” and humiliated. She said that Blake assaulted her about twice a year, and that he had her keys. A felony arrest warrant was issued, charging Blake with domestic abuse and sexual assault.

    This warrant was active on the day of Izreal’s birthday party, and the officers responding to Booker’s 911 call learned of it en route. The Kenosha Police Department’s policy was to detain anyone wanted on a felony warrant. According to an investigation by the Wisconsin Department of Justice, Blake repeatedly refused to be detained. (He told state investigators that he didn’t want his sons to see him handcuffed.) The officers Tased him multiple times, but the shocks had no visible effect.

    Then one officer screamed, “Knife!” The officers drew their guns, yelling, “Drop the knife!” By now, the neighbor was recording the confrontation. The officer nearest to Blake was Rusten Sheskey, who later told investigators that he was determined not to let Blake leave, and was asking himself, “Will we have to pursue the vehicle with a child inside of the car? Is he going to hold the child hostage?” In a report summarizing the state’s findings, the district attorney, Michael Graveley, said that Sheskey had fired after Blake whipped around, “driving the knife towards Officer Sheskey’s torso.”

    Scrutiny of the neighbor’s video footage confirmed that Blake was holding a knife. The location of Blake’s wounds—four in the lower back, three in the left side—corroborated Sheskey’s claim that Blake was hit while turning toward him. Sheskey had been trained to shoot until a threat was neutralized, and didn’t stop firing until he saw Blake drop the knife. Advocates of criminal-justice reform argue that such protocols do not make keeping a suspect alive a top priority. Kirk Burkhalter, a law professor at N.Y.U., told the BBC that resisting arrest “happens often” and does not offer “carte blanche to use deadly physical force.”

    Blake was hospitalized for six weeks. Prosecutors dropped the domestic-violence charge after investigators had trouble getting Booker to coöperate. Sheskey was not charged: Graveley concluded that the state could not prove the officer hadn’t acted in self-defense. He also noted that, in 2010, Blake had waved a knife, “in a slashing motion,” at police who had stopped a vehicle he was in.

    These revelations meant that an incident partly captured on video had been characterized without being fully understood. But they did not change the broader truth that police shootings of Black Americans occur with appalling frequency.

    Blake can no longer walk. In March, he filed a civil lawsuit against Sheskey. His lawyers declared that “the hail of gunfire fired into the back of Mr. Blake in the presence of his children was excessive and unnecessary.”

    Lately, gun-reform advocates have stressed the importance of focussing on the “how,” not the “why,” of gun violence. Instead of exploring sociological or personal factors that may have contributed to a shooting, they want to concentrate on shutting down the mechanisms that let guns fall into the wrong hands. But when an event becomes a distorted media spectacle, as Kenosha did, it can be useful to clarify both the “why” and the “how,” even if the latter is ultimately more important.

    Kenosha, an old automotive city of a hundred thousand people, is on the western shore of Lake Michigan, between Milwaukee and Chicago. The lake is the main attraction: boats on the horizon, storm waves thundering at the riprap. The first time I visited, in January, buildings in the protest zone remained patched with plywood and tagged with optimistic graffiti (“Heal the World!”).

    Just south is Lake County, Illinois. Rittenhouse’s parents, Wendy and Mike, got married there in February, 2000, and their daughter Faith was born six months later. The other two Rittenhouse children were born in 2003: Kyle in January, McKenzie in December. When the children were small, Wendy and Mike worked various jobs, including machine operator, housekeeper, and cashier. Mike, who struggled with alcohol addiction and sometimes experimented with drugs, was unemployed for a couple of years. When Kyle was four, Mike was charged with domestic battery after allegedly punching Wendy in the stomach. (He denies this; the charges were dismissed.) Twice, Wendy and the children briefly lived in a shelter.

    Wendy and Mike eventually split up. (Mike says that he has been sober for years and wants to repair his family relationships.) Wendy had become a certified nursing assistant, but she continued to struggle financially. The family was repeatedly evicted.

    Wendy sometimes felt too overwhelmed to help her kids navigate difficulties. In 2017, when Kyle was fourteen, she tried to resolve a conflict between him and two classmates, twins named Anthony and Jonathan, by seeking restraining orders. In a handwritten petition to the court, Wendy, who has dyslexia, wrote, “Anthony calls Klye dumb stupid say that going to hurt Kyle. Anthony follows Kyle around to take picture of Klye and post them on soical media.”

    That fall, Rittenhouse, a pudgy ninth grader in dark-framed glasses, joined the Explorers program at the Grayslake Police Department, near Antioch. The police chief viewed the program as a way to “teach self-discipline, responsibility and other appropriate ‘life lessons’ ” to youths who “may have a challenging home, social, or school life.” Rittenhouse participated in a similar cadet program through the Antioch Fire Department. Jon Cokefair, the fire chief, told me, “Most of the kids that are doing this, they don’t play football, they’re not cheerleaders—this is their focus.”

    Jeff Myhra, the deputy chief who ran Grayslake’s Police Explorers program, told me that participants trained with harmless replicas of service weapons. Explorers wore uniforms and often helped manage parade traffic. Rittenhouse went on police ride-alongs, a practice that may impart a false sense of competence, or authority. One brochure declared, “Like Police Officers, Explorers must be ready and willing to encounter any emergency situation such as first responders to accidents or injuries.”

    In 2018, shortly after another eviction, Wendy filed for bankruptcy. She developed a gastrointestinal bleed that required hospitalization, and Faith was also hospitalized, after an attempted overdose involving over-the-counter painkillers. To make money for the family, Kyle worked as a fry cook and a janitor while attending school online. He also became certified as a lifeguard and found part-time work at a Y.M.C.A. Eventually, he hoped to graduate from high school and become a police officer or a paramedic.

    In January, 2020, Rittenhouse, now seventeen, tried to join the Marines, unsuccessfully. Shortly after the pandemic arrived in America, the Y furloughed him. He applied for another lifeguard position, and while awaiting word he hung out with his sister McKenzie’s new boyfriend, Dominick Black, who was eighteen.

    Rittenhouse had always wanted a brother, and he became close to Black. They camped and fished and attended car meets. Black’s family lived in Kenosha, but he often stayed in Antioch with the Rittenhouses. Upstate, where the Blacks owned property and liked to hunt, the boys practiced shooting at bull’s-eye targets and bottles.

    Wendy had let her kids play with Nerf and paintball guns, but she didn’t allow actual guns in her home. Rittenhouse wasn’t old enough to buy a firearm, but he wanted one anyway. Black owned a Smith & Wesson M&P15—an AR-15-style rifle. In 1994, after a series of mass shootings, Congress banned many assault weapons. A decade later, the ban expired, and these firearms flooded the market. According to the Wall Street Journal, before 1994 there were an estimated four hundred thousand AR-15s in the U.S.; today, there are twenty million AR-15s or similar weapons.

    In 2019, a Marquette University Law School poll revealed that Wisconsin residents overwhelmingly supported expanding background checks to include private sales. Yet Wisconsin’s lawmakers had been resisting stricter measures, and went so far as to remove a mandatory forty-eight-hour waiting period for handgun purchases. In many cases, an eighteen-year-old could legally buy a semi-automatic rifle without a permit or proof of training, and openly carry it almost anywhere, even at street protests.

    In early May, 2020, Black bought a Smith & Wesson for Rittenhouse at an Ace Hardware in northwestern Wisconsin, using money that Rittenhouse had given him. Black’s stepfather insisted that the rifle be kept in a locked safe at his house in Kenosha. (Black, who faces felony charges related to having provided a weapon used in homicides, declined to comment, and his stepfather couldn’t be reached.) Rittenhouse had told his mother that he intended to buy a gun, but she assumed he meant a hunting rifle or a shotgun, like her father and brothers had owned. According to Wendy, when Rittenhouse told her what he’d bought, she responded, “That’s an assault rifle!” But she didn’t make him get rid of it.

    Rittenhouse had just started a new lifeguarding job when Blake was shot. On the second night of the protests, he finished his shift at around 8 p.m., and hung out with Black at Black’s stepfather’s place, two miles west of the courthouse. On social media, people were spreading false rumors that rioters planned to attack residential neighborhoods. The teens watched live streams of events that were unfolding so close to home that, when they stepped outside, they could smell smoke and hear screams.

    The next day, Rittenhouse and Black cleaned graffiti in the protest zone, then offered to help guard what remained of Car Source. The business was insured, but one of its owners, Anmol Khindri, said to reporters that it was devastating when the police “did nothing” to stop rioters.

    Black kept his rifle disassembled in the trunk of his car. On the second day of the protests, the stepfather had removed Rittenhouse’s rifle from the safe, to keep it handy, he later told police. The gun was fetched from the stepfather’s house. Black later told a detective that this made him uncomfortable, but added that if he’d objected Rittenhouse “would have threw a fit.” The night of the shootings, the rifle was equipped with a thirty-round magazine and hung from a chest sling that Rittenhouse had bought that afternoon.

    At dusk, Black was on the roof of the mechanic shop while Rittenhouse and others stayed on the ground. It was Black whom Rittenhouse called following the first burst of gunfire. After the second round of shooting, Black came down and found Rittenhouse sitting in a chair inside the shop, “all shooken up.” Rittenhouse had placed his rifle on the flatbed of a truck.

    Black later told a detective that he drove Rittenhouse home to Antioch, where Wendy gave her son two choices: turn yourself in, or leave town. Around 1 a.m., she drove him to the police station in Antioch. They waited together for more than two hours, Kyle crying and vomiting. Finally, two Kenosha police detectives, Benjamin Antaramian and Martin Howard, took them into an interview room. When Antaramian explained that he needed to read a police form aloud, Rittenhouse asked, “Is it Miranda?,” and then said, “I know how Miranda works.” He did not know how Miranda works. He both wanted a lawyer and to talk—incompatible desires. The detectives halted the interview.

    Rosenbaum, the man who had chased Rittenhouse into the parking lot, was dead. The man who had struck him with the skateboard, Anthony Huber, a twenty-six-year-old demonstrator from Kenosha County, was either dead or dying. The third man shot—the one with the handgun—was also a twenty-six-year-old demonstrator, Gaige Grosskreutz, who lived near Milwaukee. Videos were already starting to make their way online: Rosenbaum taking his final breaths; Huber clutching his chest and collapsing; Grosskreutz shrieking, his right biceps mangled.

    Messages from strangers were appearing on Wendy’s phone: “Your son is a white supremacist murderer bitch. You and your family need to count your fuckin days”; “We going to make your home look like Beirut.” They knew where she lived. Wendy told Kyle, “We can’t go back.”

    When Rittenhouse learned that he was being arrested, he exclaimed that someone had hit him “with a fucking bat! ” (Widely circulating videos show no such attack.) Antaramian explained that the charges could “range anywhere from reckless injury to reckless homicide to second-degree homicide.” Wendy wailed, “Murder?”

    Rittenhouse, who had been speaking with the detectives in a familiar manner, requested a favor: “Can you guys delete my social-media accounts?”

    On August 27th, the Kenosha County D.A. charged Rittenhouse with Wisconsin’s most serious crimes, among them first-degree intentional homicide, the mandatory punishment for which is life in prison. Other felony charges included reckless homicide, and he was also charged with a misdemeanor: underage possession of a dangerous weapon. Thomas Binger, the assistant district attorney assigned to the case, has said, “We don’t allow teens to run around with guns. It’s that simple.”

    Conservatives denounced the homicide charges as political, noting that both Binger and Graveley, the district attorney, are Democrats. Criminal defendants who cannot afford a lawyer are typically appointed a public defender, but so many conservative and far-right figures rallied around Rittenhouse that private counsel was all but assured.

    Among the attorneys who stepped forward was John Pierce, a civil litigator in Los Angeles, who believed that, in the digital age, lawyers needed to “gang tackle, swarm, and crowd-source.” His firm, now known as Pierce Bainbridge, had reportedly received nine million dollars from a hedge fund, Pravati Capital, in what The American Lawyer called possibly “the first public example of a litigation funder investing in a law firm’s portfolio of contingent fee cases.” The firm would bring cases against big targets, and Pravati would receive a cut of any damages. Critics have called forms of this practice “legal loan-sharking.”

    Pierce secured a few high-profile clients, including Rudolph Giuliani and Tulsi Gabbard, who sued Hillary Clinton for saying that the Russians were “grooming” Gabbard to run as a third-party Presidential candidate. But, by the spring of 2020, Pierce Bainbridge reportedly owed creditors more than sixty million dollars.

    Last August, Pierce launched a charitable nonprofit, the #FightBack Foundation, whose mission involved raising money to fund lawsuits that would “take our country back.” A Trump supporter, he was hostile toward liberals and often expressed his views crudely. One Saturday, during an argument with his ex-wife, he unleashed a stream of increasingly threatening texts, including “Go watch an AOC rally. Fucking libtard”; “I will fuck u and ur kind up”; and “People like u hate the USA. Guess what bitch, we ain’t goin anywhere.” Not for the first time, she obtained a restraining order against him.

    #FightBack was registered in Dallas, where one participant, a lawyer named Lawson Pedigo, had joined Pierce in representing the former Trump aide Carter Page. Pierce and Pedigo were also working with Lin Wood, a well-known defamation attorney. When the Kenosha protests began, #FightBack leaped into the fray, declaring that “law-abiding citizens have no choice but to protect their own communities as their forefathers did at Lexington and Concord in 1775.” The Rittenhouse shootings gave the foundation a face for its cause.

    The Rittenhouses never returned home. Wendy and her daughters were staying with friends when Pierce tweeted an offer to represent Kyle, who had been transferred to a juvenile detention center in Illinois: “Will fly up there tonight and I will handle his defense with team of best lawyers in USA.”

    The Rittenhouses’ experience with the criminal-justice system was limited to Mike’s history, and to a battery charge against Wendy: the month before Kyle was born, she pleaded guilty to spitting in a neighbor’s face. Pierce’s Harvard law degree impressed them, and, on Twitter, the family could see him discussing Kyle alongside elected officials such as the Arizona congressman Paul Gosar, who tweeted that Rittenhouse’s actions had been “100% justified self defense.”

    Pierce met with the Rittenhouses on the night of August 27th. Pierce Bainbridge drew up an agreement calling for a retainer of a hundred thousand dollars and an hourly billing rate of twelve hundred and seventy-five dollars—more than twice the average partner billing rate at top U.S. firms. Pierce would be paid through #FightBack, which, soliciting donations through its Web site, called the charges against Rittenhouse “a reactionary rush to appease the divisive, destructive forces currently roiling this country.”

    Wisconsin’s ethics laws restrict pretrial publicity, but Pierce began making media appearances on Rittenhouse’s behalf. He called Kenosha a “war zone” and claimed that a “mob” had been “relentlessly hunting him as prey.” He explicitly associated Rittenhouse with the militia movement, tweeting, “The unorganized ‘militia of the United States consists of all able-bodied males at least seventeen years of age,’ ” and “Kyle was a Minuteman protecting his community when the government would not.”

    Wendy often appeared with Pierce as a “momma bear” defending her son. “He didn’t do nothing wrong,” she told an ABC affiliate. “He was attack by a mob.” She publicly threatened to sue Joe Biden for using a photograph of Rittenhouse in his campaign materials, promising, “I will take him down.”

    Such partisan rhetoric rallied support among conservatives convinced that liberals were destroying American cities with impunity. As donations streamed into #FightBack’s Web site, other contributions were offered directly to the family, for living expenses. Certain donors further yoked Rittenhouse to the militia movement: in September, the group American Wolf—self-appointed “peacekeepers” in Washington State—presented Wendy and Pierce with fifty-five thousand dollars in donations, after having taken a twenty-per-cent cut.

    If Pierce seemed erratic and incendiary, he was more than matched by Lin Wood. A civil litigator in his late sixties, Wood rose to prominence in the nineties, when he won defamation suits on behalf of Richard Jewell, the security guard who was wrongly implicated as the Centennial Olympic Park bomber. Wood often went on TV to defend clients. In 2006, he told the publication Super Lawyers, “A media appearance is really a mini-trial. You may be advocating to a jury of millions.” After Wood represented the family of JonBenét Ramsey—the six-year-old girl murdered in 1996—observers characterized the family’s flurry of defamation lawsuits as “legal vigilantism.”

    After Donald Trump was elected President, Wood’s work became noticeably ideological. He represented Mark and Patricia McCloskey, the white couple in St. Louis who pointed guns at B.L.M. protesters marching past their house. He represented Nicholas Sandmann, the Kentucky high-school student who sued various publications for their depictions of an interaction that he had, while wearing a maga hat, with a Native American activist in Washington, D.C. (Sandmann eventually fired Wood.)

    People close to Wood noticed troubling changes in his behavior. According to a recent lawsuit by three lawyers who worked with him in Atlanta, Wood asserted that Chief Justice John Roberts would be exposed as part of Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking ring, and that Trump would name him Roberts’s successor. (Wood denies making these statements.) The lawyers, who were suing to cut their business ties with Wood, cited repeated “abusive” behavior. In a voice mail, Wood called one of the lawyers, Jonathan Grunberg, a “Chilean Jewish fucking crook,” and on another occasion he allegedly assaulted him in an elevator. (Wood has called the lawsuit “frivolous.”)

    Wood, who became #FightBack’s C.E.O. on September 2, 2020, attempted to turn Rittenhouse’s legal case into a cultural battle, calling him a “political prisoner” and comparing him to Paul Revere. He tweeted, “Kyle Rittenhouse at age 17 warned us to defend ourselves.” Wood implied that patriots were needed for an even bigger fight—a looming “second civil war.” His Twitter bio included the QAnon slogan #WWG1WGA—“Where we go one, we go all”—and he became a leading promoter of a conspiracy theory claiming that a secret group of cannibalistic pedophiles has taken control of the United States.

    In the first few weeks of #FightBack’s campaign, Wood announced, some eleven thousand people donated more than six hundred thousand dollars. The foundation paid Pierce and produced a publicity video, “Kyle Rittenhouse—The Truth in 11 Minutes,” which framed the case as one with “the power to negatively affect our lives for generations.” A narrator intoned, “This is the moment when the ‘home of the brave’ rise to defend ‘the land of the free.’ ” Wood called the case “a watershed moment” for self-defense; Pierce tweeted, “Kyle now has the best legal representation in the country.”

    Pierce was a civil attorney, not a criminal-defense lawyer. A double homicide was “not the fucking case to learn on,” one experienced defense lawyer told me. In Wisconsin, a homicide case requires representation by a local lawyer. Rittenhouse hired two criminal-defense attorneys in Madison, Chris Van Wagner and Jessa Nicholson Goetz, who had the understanding that #FightBack would cover their legal fees. The Madison lawyers quickly concluded that the #FightBack arrangement wouldn’t work for them. Van Wagner told me, “When you have crowdfunding of a criminal defense, they take over—they have their own political agenda.” He recalled that one #FightBack conference call began with “Hello, patriots!”

    The defense attorneys also found Pierce and Wood’s media presence compromising. On September 7th, they e-mailed Wood: “Almost all of the news today about Kyle’s case centers not on the case itself but on the two lawyers who have publicly identified themselves as his lawyers, as well as on the ‘cause’-oriented Foundation.” They reminded Wood that a “proper defense” of Rittenhouse should be the “lone objective.”

    Around this time, Pierce announced that he was stepping away from #FightBack’s board, and tweeted that he wanted to “avoid any appearance of $$ conflict.” But, in the e-mail, Van Wagner and Goetz told Wood that they could not proceed unless the foundation addressed “financial questions swirling around” Pierce. They asked Wood to deposit the Rittenhouse donations into a conventional bank-trust account “under the sole control of Kyle’s mother along with a bank trustee.” This would “ensure that the funds are used solely for the purposes for which people donated them.”

    These demands were not met, and the Madison lawyers left the case.

    #FightBack’s Web site noted that contributions could be channelled to associated law firms, “for other purposes.” The foundation had announced a fund-raising goal of five million dollars, for bail and other costs, and at first the site displayed a progress bar—$1.9 million on September 23rd; $2.1 million on October 1st. The ongoing tally was then replaced with a simple “Donate Now” button.

    On October 30th, Rittenhouse was extradited from Illinois to Wisconsin. His first Kenosha County court appearance was scheduled for a few days later. Wood tweeted that #FightBack needed to “raise $1M” before then. Wisconsin is a cash-bail state: a defendant must pay the full amount in order to await trial outside of jail. The court had set Rittenhouse’s bail at two million dollars. Given that #FightBack had supposedly reached that benchmark weeks earlier, Wendy wondered if the #FightBack lawyers were leaving Kyle in jail as a fund-raising ploy. (Wood calls the notion “blatantly false.”)

    In mid-November, Wood reported that Mike Lindell, the C.E.O. of MyPillow, had “committed $50K to Kyle Rittenhouse Defense Fund.” Lindell says that he thought his donation was going toward fighting “election fraud.” The actor Ricky Schroder contributed a hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Pierce finally paid Rittenhouse’s bail, with a check from Pierce Bainbridge, on November 20th—well over a month after #FightBack’s Web site indicated that the foundation had the necessary funds.

    The fact that a suspect in a double homicide could raise so much money and get out of jail struck many people as another example of an unfair system. The minister Bernice King, the youngest child of Martin Luther King, Jr., tweeted that Kalief Browder “was held at the Rikers Island jail complex, without trial, for allegedly stealing a backpack.” (Browder spent three years at Rikers, and later hanged himself.)

    Moments after Rittenhouse was released, he jumped into an S.U.V. driven by Dave Hancock, a former Navy seal who now worked in security. Hancock told me that he started working for Wood in March, 2020, and became #FightBack’s executive director that September, but found Wood’s volatility untenable. “He has no filter, and no bottom,” Hancock told me. One night in October, during an argument, Wood grabbed Hancock’s handgun from his holster. Hancock and Wood parted ways.

    Hancock was still on decent terms with Pierce, though, and had said yes when Pierce asked him to “extract” Kyle from Kenosha. In the S.U.V., Hancock gave Rittenhouse new clothes from Bass Pro Shops and an order of Chicken McNuggets, then drove to Indiana. Pierce, a Notre Dame graduate, had relocated Rittenhouse’s family to a “safe house” near South Bend. The arrangement astonished one attorney, who later said, “Why does Wendy Rittenhouse think she’s entitled to a free lawyer and free housing? Because John Pierce and Lin Wood told her she was.”

    The night of the family’s reunion, Ricky Schroder showed up. Rittenhouse happily posed for a photograph with him and Pierce, who was staying nearby. Rittenhouse wore a T-shirt, bought by Hancock, that bore the image of a gun’s crosshairs and the words “Black Rifle Coffee Company,” a roaster that sells a blend called Murdered Out. The photograph wound up on Twitter. The family of Huber, the man shot in the heart, had released a statement decrying attempts to celebrate “armed vigilantes who cause death and chaos in the streets.” Black Rifle soon declared that it “does not have a relationship” with Rittenhouse.

    The Rittenhouses had accepted #FightBack funds without hesitation, but they were growing uncomfortable with Pierce. They say that he drank excessively in front of Wendy’s kids; called Faith, who supported Bernie Sanders, a “raging liberal”; and billed the family for time spent shopping for a shirt to wear on Tucker Carlson’s show. Pierce also appeared determined to monetize Rittenhouse’s story, and had been exploring book and film deals.

    Hancock, who expressed concerns that Pierce was exploiting the family, was sensitive about financial impropriety. In 2012, he’d been accused of mismanaging an online fund-raiser that he’d established to support seal families. Hancock showed me documents indicating that, after an investigation by the Naval Criminal Investigative Service, the U.S. Attorney’s office declined to prosecute.

    Wood, for his part, now seemed preoccupied less with Rittenhouse’s case than with exposing “election fraud.” #FightBack was asked to stop featuring Rittenhouse in its fund-raising efforts. Wendy says that she has pressed both the foundation and Pierce for a comprehensive accounting of donations and expenditures, but has not received the information. (Pierce refused to answer questions from this magazine.)

    Last fall, Pierce sought a formal place on Rittenhouse’s criminal-defense team. #FightBack had hired Mark Richards, a veteran defense lawyer in Racine. Richards didn’t tweet and considered it “unethical as hell” to discuss cases on social media; he saved his arguments for court. Richards was also a liberal Democrat. He’d told conservatives involved in Rittenhouse’s case, “You and I aren’t going to be going to the same parties on Election Night.”

    Courts routinely grant out-of-state lawyers pro-hac-vice status, allowing them to practice “for this occasion.” But the Kenosha prosecutors objected to Pierce’s petition to join the defense team. On December 3rd, they argued in a motion that the combination of his substantial debt and his connection to #FightBack—a “slush fund” with “unregulated and opaque” finances—offered “ample opportunity for self-dealing and fraud.” (#FightBack eventually must disclose certain financial details to the I.R.S., but there is no immediate avenue for public oversight.)

    Pierce then abandoned his attempt to join the case and announced that he was “taking over all civil matters for Kyle including his future defamation claims.” He would also be “orchestrating all fundraising for defense costs.” On Newsmax, he said that the defense was “going to need millions of dollars” to litigate “probably the most important case, honestly, in the history of self-defense in the Anglo-American legal system.”

    The Rittenhouses, with Hancock’s help, launched their own Web site and raised money by selling “Free Kyle” merchandise, including a $39.99 hoodie and a $42.99 bikini. The merchandise featured a slogan said to have been uttered by Rittenhouse: “Self-Defense Is a Right, Not a Privilege.” The attorney for Grosskreutz, the third man shot, complained to a Wisconsin news channel that Wendy was “trying to profit off of these tragedies,” adding, “It’s frankly vile.”

    Eventually, the two million dollars in bail money could be returned to Pierce Bainbridge. A former client of Pierce’s recently heard about this possibility and posted an admonishment on YouTube: “You’re trying to boogie with his money, bro.” In June, Pierce announced that he had launched another nonprofit, the National Constitutional Law Union, as a counterpart to the A.C.L.U. The organization’s Web site noted that a “substantial amount of funds raised” would be “paid to a law firm owned and/or controlled by the founder.”

    Throughout the pandemic, Rittenhouse’s pretrial hearings were held on Zoom. He usually sat silently in a mask next to Richards, in Richards’s office. One hearing occurred on January 5th, two days after Rittenhouse turned eighteen. His mother joined him, along with Hancock, who now oversaw the family’s safety and wore a handgun at the small of his back. Several volunteer lookouts, whom Hancock says that he met through Pierce, stood watch outside Richards’s building.

    Afterward, Hancock drove the Rittenhouses to lunch. One of the lookouts also went to the restaurant, and was joined by friends. The group ate at another table and then offered to take Rittenhouse out for a beer. When Hancock balked, Rittenhouse pointed out that, in Wisconsin, someone his age can legally drink at a bar if a parent is present. Wendy agreed to go.

    Hancock drove the Rittenhouses to Pudgy’s, a bar near Racine. Outside, Rittenhouse vaped. He had changed out of his dress clothes and into a backward baseball cap and a T-shirt bearing the message “free as f–k.” When his drinking buddies arrived, they wanted photographs with him. Rittenhouse posed with a hefty guy in a Brewers cap, flashing a thumbs-up. A bearded man in a gray hoodie stepped up next, and made the “O.K.” sign. Rittenhouse noticed, then did the same.

    Inside, the bartender handed him the first of three beers. Customers came up to Rittenhouse and shook his hand. Someone on the far side of the room surreptitiously took photographs, and these images soon surfaced online. To detractors, Rittenhouse, with his “free as f–k” shirt and alcohol, looked like he was trolling.

    Binger, the prosecutor, obtained the bar’s surveillance footage and could see that Rittenhouse’s group ultimately consisted of about ten people, all but two of them men. The party stayed at Pudgy’s for nearly two hours. Rittenhouse appeared unfamiliar with his hosts yet pleased to be there. Wendy, drinking Mike’s Hard Lemonade, hovered off to the side with Hancock.

    At one point, five of the men started singing: “I’ve been one rotten kid / Some son, some pride and some joy.” The larger group eventually took a photograph with Rittenhouse in which most of them made the “O.K.” sign. Both the gesture and the song—“Proud of Your Boy,” from the stage production of Disney’s “Aladdin”—are hallmarks of the Proud Boys. The organization, which originated in 2016 as a club for “Western chauvinists,” with a logo of a rooster weathervane pointing west, has become a home for right-wing extremists who embrace violence. The Southern Poverty Law Center lists the Proud Boys as a hate group, and in Canada they are considered a terrorist entity. Associates are known to wear T-shirts that say “6MWE”—“Six Million Wasn’t Enough,” a Holocaust reference—and “Pinochet Did Nothing Wrong!” The “O.K.” sign can be code for “white power.”

    After the Kenosha shootings, the Proud Boys had made Rittenhouse an extension of their pro-violence message. At a far-right rally attended by many Proud Boys, the crowd had chanted “Good job, Kyle!” The group’s chairman, Enrique Tarrio, was photographed wearing a T-shirt that said “Kyle Rittenhouse Did Nothing Wrong!”

    Hours before the Pudgy’s outing, Pierce texted Wendy, “Just got retained by Chandler Pappas.” Pappas had been charged, in Oregon, with macing six police officers during an assault on the state capitol, in protest of covid-19 restrictions. He was a supporter of the far-right group Patriot Prayer, and had appeared at a Proud Boys rally with Tarrio, who had been charged, in Washington, D.C., with property destruction and firearms-related offenses. In a tweet, Pierce gave the impression that he was representing both defendants.

    The Rittenhouses say that they didn’t know who either Pappas or Tarrio was at the time. Hancock, who has become one of the family’s advisers, says that neither he nor the Rittenhouses grasped the meaning of “Proud of Your Boy” or the “O.K.” gesture, and didn’t realize that any of the men at Pudgy’s were Proud Boys. Though Hancock is a security professional, he told me that he hadn’t learned the names of the men who had volunteered as lookouts or invited Rittenhouse to the bar. Explicit clues about the men’s affiliations existed in plain sight. When I examined the Pudgy’s surveillance footage, I noticed “Proud Boy” tattooed on one man’s forearm; another man had a tattoo of the rooster weathervane from the Proud Boys logo.

    The insurrection at the U.S. Capitol occurred the next day. Federal authorities have charged numerous presumed Proud Boys, including one alleged organizer, Ethan Nordean, who had publicly praised Rittenhouse as a “stud.” Lin Wood had tweeted that Vice-President Mike Pence should be executed by firing squad, and would later call him a “TRAITOR, a Communist Sympathizer & a Child Molester.” On the morning of the attack, Wood tweeted, “The time has come Patriots.”

    Six days after the Capitol assault, Rittenhouse and his mother flew with Pierce to Miami for three days. The person who picked them up at the airport was Enrique Tarrio—the Proud Boys leader. Tarrio was Pierce’s purported client, and not long after the shootings in Kenosha he had donated a hundred dollars or so to Rittenhouse’s legal-defense fund. They all went to a Cuban restaurant, for lunch.

    The Rittenhouses would not say what was discussed at the meal. Hancock, who wasn’t there, clearly understood that it didn’t look good. He insisted to me that the Rittenhouses were uncomfortable with the meeting, and blamed Pierce for orchestrating the encounter and exposing Rittenhouse “to elements that hurt him.” Hancock, who told me that the Proud Boys are “fucking losers,” said that Rittenhouse initially “may have thought it was kind of cool to see people fighting for him, but when he learned what they were all about it didn’t sit well with him.” He added, “He’s just as horrified by the white-supremacist part of it as anybody.”

    The Miami lunch did not become publicly known. But the next day the prosecutors in Kenosha filed a motion—based on the surveillance footage from Pudgy’s—asking the court to make it a condition of Rittenhouse’s bond that he avoid contact with “known members of any violent white power / white supremacist groups.”

    The Rittenhouses stayed at a Courtyard Marriott in Coral Gables. According to Hancock, the family didn’t see Tarrio again. The court soon accepted the modification to Rittenhouse’s bond agreement, and also restricted him from possessing or consuming alcohol.

    Rittenhouse fired Pierce, via FaceTime, on February 1st. Since then, Hancock told me, he has advised the family to reject overtures from other extremist figures and to stop appearing on right-wing media programs. Meanwhile, he was battling Wood, who had accused him of hacking #FightBack’s network and taking the donor list. The police chief in Yemassee, South Carolina, where Wood lives, recently issued a felony warrant against Hancock. Hancock denies any wrongdoing.

    The Kenosha prosecutors’ petition calling #FightBack a “slush fund” has led Hancock to establish a more conventional trust for the Rittenhouses, modelled on the arrangement that Van Wagner and Goetz described in their e-mail to Wood. According to Hancock, it has so far raised nearly half a million dollars. He told me that most donations are between twenty and fifty dollars, but, citing privacy concerns, he wouldn’t release a list of donors. He also wouldn’t discuss details of his payment agreement with the Rittenhouses. He said of the #FightBack debacle, “It was never meant to become this grossly political B.S. that morphed into ‘election fraud’ and militias adopting Kyle. The point was to fund his criminal defense.”

    After breaking with Pierce, the Rittenhouses left Indiana. In April, I met them at their new place, whose location I agreed not to disclose. My request for an interview had repeatedly been refused, but Hancock had facilitated a meeting. There were substantial restrictions: the Rittenhouses would answer questions about their family history, and about such figures as Pierce, but—as is common with homicide defendants—we could not directly discuss the case.

    Couple ringing door bell to a house
    “I’m ready to leave whenever you are.”
    Cartoon by Matthew Diffee
    When the Rittenhouses fled Antioch, they abandoned most of their possessions. Donors re-outfitted them: their current place had a new sectional sofa, a Keurig coffeemaker, and bed linens from Walmart. Each family member had a bedroom. All three siblings, including Faith, who is twenty, were back in high school, online, and using new computers that Hancock had provided.

    Before I arrived, Wendy set out platters of deli meats, and made a dip of cream cheese and canned chili. Rittenhouse was in his room, but Wendy took me to meet him briefly. He had on a dark-blue hoodie and black Lululemon slacks. Behind him were PlayStation controls and a desktop computer. He had been researching where to apply to college, and said that he hoped to go into pediatric nursing. He later explained, “Seeing how my mom and her co-workers work with their patients, and how they treat their families—those people are having the worst day of their lives, and they need somebody to fall onto and rely on. That’s something I want to do.”

    In the den, Wendy and Faith sat together on the sofa and Hancock perched at one end. The family clearly hoped to distance themselves from some of the people who had surrounded them. Wendy said of the Rittenhouses’ decision to break with Pierce, “Kyle was John’s ticket out of debt.” She was pressing Pierce to return forty thousand dollars in donated living expenses that she believed belonged to the family, and told me that Pierce had refused: “He said we owed him millions—he ‘freed Kyle.’ ”

    The Rittenhouses, with considerable input from Hancock, described Kyle as selfless (“He has this nature to protect people”) and ideologically open-minded (“huge Andrew Yang fan”). The Rittenhouses did not see themselves as particularly political, but Faith considered herself an ardent advocate of Black Lives Matter. I was told that Kyle liked Trump because Trump liked the police.

    They insisted that Kyle was not racist, and made a point of explaining that the Rittenhouses have Black relatives. The whole family agreed that the Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin had murdered George Floyd, and Faith said that she had attended a march protesting the killing. She had actively disapproved of her brother’s support of Trump, especially given Trump’s misogyny, but said that Rittenhouse knew “how to respect women.” I raised an obvious discrepancy: the punching incident. Wendy said, “I told Kyle, ‘Never hit a girl.’ I also told Kyle, ‘Always defend your sisters.’ ”

    The Rittenhouses told me that Kyle used to travel with a combat-grade tourniquet tucked in his boot, and that he had distributed tourniquets to his family. When I asked what he had kept in his first-aid kits, Hancock called him out of his bedroom, and Rittenhouse instantly provided a list: airway kits, tourniquets, QuikClot hemostatic gauze, gloves, splints, bandages, cotton swabs, tweezers, C.P.R. masks—“not the cheap ones.” His determination to appear prepared, or strong, suggested an adolescent’s need to prove himself. At the Antioch police station, he had said, “I’m not a child anymore.”

    The night of the shootings, Wendy had a bad feeling, and called Rittenhouse. “I’m doing medical,” he told her. The gunfire started moments later. “That day, I felt a part of me die,” Wendy told me. Faith said, “Because Kyle had to defend himself? And, if he didn’t, he would have died?” Wendy said, “Yeah.” She started to cry: “He didn’t want to kill them!”

    Faith overtly acknowledged the deaths. “I’m sorry to the families—we all are sorry,” she said, adding, “We think about it—a lot.” Wendy remained stuck on the idea that if Kyle “didn’t have that gun he’d be dead.” She seemed unwilling to grasp that if a bunch of civilians hadn’t been carrying rifles that night, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

    In 2017, Dwayne Dixon, an anthropologist at the University of North Carolina, heard about an upcoming Ku Klux Klan rally in Durham. He showed up to counter-protest with a semi-automatic rifle. Dixon belonged to Redneck Revolt, whose members believed in arming themselves in self-defense against white supremacists.

    The rally never materialized, but the sheriff’s department charged Dixon with two misdemeanors: “going armed to the terror of the people” and carrying a weapon to a demonstration. There was precedent. In 1968, during the civil-rights movement, the North Carolina Supreme Court had upheld the need for restricting loaded weapons, noting, “In this day of social upheaval one can perceive only dimly the tragic consequences to the people if either night riders or daytime demonstrators, fanatically convinced of the righteousness of their cause, could legally arm themselves.” Public safety was jeopardized when firearms were “ready to be used on every outbreak of ungovernable passion.”

    But times had changed. The first of Dixon’s charges was dropped, and a judge ultimately dismissed the count of “carrying a weapon,” citing Dixon’s First Amendment and Second Amendment rights.

    After arresting Dixon, the sheriff had declared that he could not “ignore the inherent danger that comes with untrained individuals operating as a self-appointed security force in our streets.” The climate has only worsened since then. The Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence recently began compiling a list of demonstrations that attract visibly armed protesters or counter-protesters. Throughout 2020 and early 2021, there were more than sixty such events, in twenty-four states and in Washington, D.C.

    Many state laws supersede city ordinances, making it impossible for cities and towns—even those with rising gun violence—to set constraints on guns. Not long ago, officials in Boulder, Colorado, banned “assault weapons” and high-capacity magazines, but in March a judge blocked the ban, saying that the local government had no control over the extent to which people can be armed in public. Ten days after the judge intervened, a shooter killed ten people at a Boulder grocery store.

    In May, Washington State banned civilians from openly carrying firearms at permitted demonstrations. The ban’s primary sponsor, Patty Kuderer, has said, “The purpose of bringing a weapon to a public demonstration is not to protect yourself, it’s to intimidate.” Other states, however, are moving in the opposite direction. Texas, later this year, will allow people to carry handguns without a permit, and in California there are new legal challenges to long-standing bans on AR-15-style weapons and large-capacity magazines. The availability of guns correlates with gun violence. During the ten years of the federal ban on assault weapons—1994 to 2004—the number of mass-shooting events diminished. Last year, the U.S. broke records for gun sales and reached the highest level of gun homicides in decades.

    Thirty states have adopted “stand your ground” laws, further institutionalizing civilian use of lethal force. Robyn Thomas, the Giffords Law Center’s executive director, told me that such laws urgently need to be repealed, because, among other things, they distort the notion of civic responsibility: “You have this misconception of a hero with a gun being the answer to public safety, when it’s exactly the opposite.” Armed civilians assume that they are “doing good” partly because “the system propagates that mythology, by passing laws that allow for it.”

    In Wisconsin, determining if someone acted in self-defense involves the question of who initiated the aggression. But, as in many states, there is no clear definition of provocation. As John D. Moore explained in a 2013 article in the Brooklyn Law Review, in some parts of the country a person forfeits the privilege of self-defense merely by having shown up at a “foreseeably dangerous situation.” Moore argued that the varying standards make it harder for citizens to “fairly distinguish between the vigilant and the vigilante.” Wisconsin’s law favors someone who “in good faith withdraws from the fight,” yet there is not always a duty to retreat. At Rittenhouse’s trial, which is scheduled to begin on November 1st, the jury may need to find only that when he pulled the trigger he reasonably feared death or great bodily harm.

    Many people in Wisconsin expect the jury to determine that the D.A. overreached when he imposed the charge of intentional homicide. Yet Rittenhouse could still go to prison if jurors hold him accountable for the deaths. The Harvard law professor Noah Feldman recently wrote that, though Rittenhouse presumably will claim that he feared having his gun wrested away and used against him, it’s only “the presence of Rittenhouse’s own weapon” that gives him “the opportunity to claim that he was in fear of bodily harm.” Thomas told me that if Rittenhouse hadn’t concluded that it was his responsibility to venture, armed, into a “hot environment,” he “wouldn’t have been in harm’s way, and he certainly wouldn’t have hurt anyone else.”

    In a recent hearing, Bruce Schroeder, the judge who will preside over Rittenhouse’s trial, stressed the importance of sticking to “the facts and the evidence.” He demanded “a trial that’s fair to the defendant, which is his constitutional guarantee, and to the public, which is my responsibility.”

    But, thanks to the opportunists who have seized on the Rittenhouse drama, the case has been framed as the broadest possible referendum on the Second Amendment. No other legal case presents such a vivid metaphor for the country’s polarization. Many of Rittenhouse’s supporters have described the shootings almost in cathartic terms, as if they were glad that he killed people. If a jury appears to sanction vigilantism, it seems likely that more altercations between protesters and counter-protesters will turn deadly.

    Thomas sees the case as “a bellwether,” putting “guns at the forefront of the stability of our democracy.” Protecting citizens’ safety “is a primary function of our government,” she said. “Yet it’s gotten to the point where this idea that you have a right to carry a loaded weapon is starting to literally overtake other rights—the right to express your vote, the right to assemble without fear.” ♦

    Published in the print edition of the July 5, 2021, issue, with the headline “American Vigilante.”

    NOV

    URL = https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-outsized-meaning-of-the-rittenhouse-verdict

    On Thursday, as the jury deliberations in the Kyle Rittenhouse trial stretched toward day four, the defense appeared worried. Mark Richards, the lead counsel for Rittenhouse—the teen-ager who faced life in prison for killing two men, severely injuring a third, and recklessly endangering the safety of others during last year’s civil unrest in Kenosha—noticed that the jurors were sitting in a new pattern. Richards later remarked to news reporters that perhaps this indicated a divided jury.

    The jurors were debating whether Rittenhouse committed felonies or acted in self-defense when, just before midnight on August 25, 2020, he fired an AR-15-style semi-automatic rifle eight times. Rittenhouse, who was then seventeen, lived just across the Illinois border. After watching live streams of the violent protests that erupted in Kenosha following the police shooting of a Black man, Jacob Blake, he joined his best friend, Dominick Black, in guarding Car Source, a downtown business whose main sales lot had been torched. Both were armed with rifles that they had been keeping at Black’s stepfather’s home in Kenosha.

    At trial, Rittenhouse faced a charge of first-degree reckless homicide for killing Joseph Rosenbaum, an enraged but unarmed man who had chased him; first-degree intentional homicide for killing Anthony Huber, a demonstrator who had struck him with a skateboard and then lunged for his rifle; two felony counts of recklessly endangering the safety of the Daily Caller’s video chief, Richie McGinniss, and a demonstrator who had kicked him in the head; and first-degree attempted intentional homicide for shooting Gaige Grosskreutz, a demonstrator and paramedic who was armed with a Glock pistol.

    Initially, Rittenhouse also faced a misdemeanor count of unlawfully possessing a dangerous weapon. He was too young to have bought the rifle—Black bought it for him and now faces his own felony trial—but, to the surprise of many, the judge, Bruce Schroeder, dismissed it.

    Two portraits of Rittenhouse emerged during the two-week trial. The defense portrayed him as a selfless teen-ager and aspiring law-enforcement officer or paramedic who wanted to help defend Kenosha and provide first aid. Prosecutors argued that Rittenhouse courted trouble by hubristically inserting himself into a volatile situation—he volunteered to help guard property that he did not own, in a city where he did not live, while flaunting, confusingly, both a first-aid kit and a semi-automatic rifle.

    The Rittenhouse trial will be remembered for its voluminous video evidence and for live streamers’ role in either documenting, or negatively influencing, historic events. The footage—captured also by demonstrators, a civilian-operated drone, and an F.B.I. surveillance plane—showed every shooting from various angles. The jurors watched numerous clips of Rittenhouse in the moments before and after the shootings. He was interviewed by live streamers and shown yelling, “Anybody need medical?” Not long before the gunfire started, he lied about being an E.M.T. and bragged that, if there was trouble, “I’m running into harm’s way.”

    There were also notable, and loud, rebukes. After Rittenhouse’s attorneys moved for a mistrial, accusing the state of overreaching, the lead prosecutor, Thomas Binger, tried to explain himself, but Schroeder boomed, “Don’t get brazen with me!” In one motion, Rittenhouse questioned the integrity of footage that prosecutors alleged showed him provocatively pointing his gun at people first. (One of the prosecutors wearily remarked, “We did not alter the file,” adding, “None of us know how to alter the file.”) The judge acknowledged that the footage made him “very queasy,” but he allowed it.

    Putting a criminal defendant on the witness stand is always risky, but Rittenhouse, who had wanted to tell his side of the story since police detectives first questioned him, took the stand for nearly an entire day, last week. When he appeared to break down, his supporters credited his courage; his detractors compared him to Brett Kavanaugh, ridiculing “white male tears.”

    The public’s assessments of Rittenhouse’s performance coalesced, predictably, around the hyper-partisanship that distinguished the reactions to the Kenosha shootings from the start. As I reported, in detail, over the summer, opportunists seized on the case—often inaccurately—as a referendum on constitutional freedoms and American racial progress. Schroeder instructed the jurors to treat the defendant like any other witness, assessing him on such factors as credibility, conduct, appearance, demeanor, and apparent intelligence. He told them, “In everyday life, you determine for yourselves the reliability of things people say to you. You should do the same thing here.”

    The jurors could be forgiven if they were confused about how to go about their deliberations—the judge sure was. On Monday morning, Schroeder was in the middle of reading thirty-six pages of instructions aloud when he said, “If you decide unanimously that the defendant did not commit the greater crime and was acting lawfully in self-defense”—then stopped. He paused for nineteen seconds, staring off into space and rubbing his fingers together, as he pondered how to explain a pathway to convicting Rittenhouse on lesser counts. Then he said, “I’ve got myself into a midsentence, and I don’t like it.” They worked it out, not to everyone’s satisfaction. At one point, Schroeder declared, “This is a more complicated case than most—than any, frankly, that I can remember.”

    Americans had spent the past fifteen months debating Rittenhouse’s culpability, character, proclivities, motivations, and intelligence, and the extent to which he symbolized the country’s shifting relationship with guns—and with one another. The judgment that mattered was that of the seven women and five men of the jury, who were responsible for working through the complexities and nuances of each felony count, one by one.

    Around lunchtime on Friday, after four days of deliberation, the jury reached a verdict. The parties were summoned to the courtroom. Rittenhouse took his place at the defense table. His mother, Wendy, and his two sisters, Faith and McKenzie, sat together, in a rear pew, alongside Dave Hancock, a security specialist and military veteran who has become the family’s most visible advocate. Across the aisle, loved ones of the dead clutched one another’s arms. The judge warned the audience to remain unemotional: “Many people do have strong feelings, but we can’t permit any kind of a reaction to the verdict.”

    The mood was more tense than at any point during the trial. Rittenhouse, wearing the attentive expression that he had displayed all along, watched the jurors come to their chairs. The forewoman handed a bailiff a set of papers containing each charge—collectively known as “the information”—and each corresponding verdict. Schroeder leafed through the pages, then aligned them with one sharp crack. He said, “The defendant will rise and face the jury and hearken to its verdicts.”

    Rittenhouse stood. The court clerk said, “As to the first count of the information—Joseph Rosenbaum—we, the jury, find the defendant, Kyle H. Rittenhouse, not guilty.” Wendy Rittenhouse jolted backward in her seat. By the third “not guilty,” Rittenhouse was losing his composure. On the fifth and final “not guilty,” his knees appeared to buckle.

    The jurors were—and are—not required to reveal their calculus. By tradition, even their identities may not be made public. The Rittenhouse jury was known, by sight, only to those who physically attended the trial at the Kenosha County Courthouse. They were not sequestered. They were driven to and from the courthouse in what the judge called a “sealed” vehicle—a bus with blacked-out windows.

    It was ultimately impossible to deduce meaning from their demographics or their behavior during the trial—juries are notoriously unpredictable. Was it better or worse—for the prosecution or the defense—that women outnumbered men? What did it mean that the jurors wanted to rewatch certain footage? And that, less than twenty-four hours before issuing the verdict, some of them were smiling? As he dismissed them, the judge told the jurors that they could talk to the media, if they wanted, about their deliberations. But they did not have to. He said, “Your job is done.”

    The courtroom was half filled when the trial began, on November 2nd. By the end, the room was crowded, and a “zoo” had appeared outside. The Racine Journal Times clocked the presence of a man in a “pro-Second Amendment hoodie” and an enthusiastic trial watcher in a red fedora and matching boa. Mark McCloskey, the lawyer who pleaded guilty to pointing an “AR” at Black Lives Matter demonstrators, last year, outside his home in St. Louis, materialized in Kenosha, though he is running for a U.S. Senate seat in Missouri.

    The public discourse that surrounded the trial bore little resemblance to the matter of law. A “Free Kyle” contingent saw no reason to hold Rittenhouse accountable for any of his actions in Kenosha. The true villains, in their eyes, were Antifa, the Black Lives Matter movement, and Democrats—whose actions, or lack thereof, forced civilians to defend communities against destruction and violence. Rittenhouse rejected the term “vigilante,” but some of his supporters baldly embraced it. On Wednesday night, the right-wing commentator Dinesh D’Souza told Laura Ingraham on Fox News, “When you don’t have rule of law, when the cops are nowhere to be found, vigilante justice is the only kind of justice you have.” The chyron read “Rittenhouse Trial Reveals a Culture in Decline.”

    If the right saw the verdict as an affirmation of vigilantism, so, too, did their opponents. Moments after the verdict, the political consultant David Axelrod tweeted, “A dangerous, dangerous precedent.” Jake Spence, the state director of Wisconsin Working Families Party, called the outcome “an abject failure” of the criminal-justice system, whose presumed goal is “to promote well-being, public safety and justice for all.” The Atlantic contributor David French, a conservative and an Iraq War veteran who has written about his decision to carry a concealed weapon, recently observed that “one of the symbols of the American hard right is the ‘patriot’ openly carrying an AR-15 or similar weapon.” He described Rittenhouse as “the next step in that progression. He’s the ‘patriot’ who didn’t just carry his rifle; he used it.”

    President Joe Biden, whose 2020 campaign used an image of Rittenhouse to disavow Donald Trump’s support of “white supremacists,” commented only that he stood by the verdict. His press secretary, Jen Psaki, told reporters that the President believes “we shouldn’t have, broadly speaking, vigilantes patrolling our communities with assault weapons. We shouldn’t have opportunists corrupting peaceful protest by rioting and burning down the communities they claim to represent, anywhere in the country.”

    Rittenhouse did not have formal firearms training, yet Wisconsin’s law allowed him to openly carry a semi-automatic rifle, the type of weapon that is colloquially known as an AR-15. The “AR” stands not for “assault rifle,” as some believe, but rather for ArmaLite Rifle; ArmaLite was the company that manufactured the weapon in the nineteen-fifties, as the Pentagon sought a lightweight alternative to the M14 infantry rifle. As C. J. Chivers explains in “The Gun,” Colt’s firearms division bought the rights to the AR-15 in 1959 and field-tested it in the Vietnam War, promoting its “devastating” ability to penetrate almost anything. Chivers writes that “five to seven soldiers armed with AR-15s produced more firepower and were more dangerous than eleven soldiers provided with M-14s.”

    When the patent expired, gun manufacturers mass-produced derivatives. Once the federal assault-weapons ban expired, in 2004, they became the most popular rifles in America. Rittenhouse was armed with Smith & Wesson’s version of the AR-15, which Chivers describes as “small, dark, lean, and synthetically futuristic.” Rittenhouse testified that he wanted an “AR” because he thought it “looked cool.”

    In his reflections on the trial, French worried that “a political movement that turns a deadly and ineffective vigilante into a role model is a movement that is courting more violence.” And, in fact, it was far-right figures like the Proud Boys and Marjorie Taylor Greene who appeared most ardent in their support of Rittenhouse. After the verdict was announced, Madison Cawthorn, the North Carolina congressman who has advocated “bloodshed” and “storing up some ammunition” in defense of combatting “tyranny,” released a seven-second selfie-video celebrating Rittenhouse’s acquittal. On January 6th, Cawthorn spoke at Trump’s Stop the Steal rally, moments before insurrectionists stormed the U.S. Capitol. In his Rittenhouse video, he told followers, “You have a right to defend yourself! Be armed, be dangerous, and be moral.” Cawthorn, as well as his colleagues Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar, expressed interest in offering Rittenhouse an “internship.”

    #133805
    Avatar photozn
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    Jourdan Rodrigue@JourdanRodrigue
    Some interesting stuff today from Cooper Kupp and Sean McVay, and will try to illustrate why even as I’m still marinating on it myself a bit here…(thread)

    First, Tennessee was able to pressure at high rate with four, especially in first half (they only had to blitz 4 times and had 15 pressures with 4 or fewer rushers per NextGen; first half Stafford was pressured w four on 40% of dropbacks, highest of year). Rams also were facing

    bad dwn/dstnces a lot. Stafford has produced against 2Hi/shells, Rams entered game leading explosive pass play rate in NFL despite him seeing second-most 2Hi (@joeyanalytics ). But running same concepts from deeper behind sticks affects development time, and

    further helps pressure feast if already doing so and QB is looking for those explosives (Stafford admitted he was on couple of those sacks/hits). Here’s Kupp on this; basically you’re wanting a blend of catch-and-runs under those shells/roofs w handpicked explosive air yards opps


    So, we saw this group, McVay especially, start to understand last year when he had Staley’s defensive philosophy (even tho, no, Titans were not actually playing exactly that, but 2Hi shells are high-rate in NFL now and combined w PRESSURE this is more about philosophy vs scheme),

    that the patient plan wins in games like this. Or, at least, the defense is baiting coach and QB to force the high-efficiency play (large air yards downfield) rather than control the ball and build medium catch-and-runs, ESPECIALLY when facing a deficit as they were.

    #133593
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    Von is a force multiplier

    There are videos and a diagram embedded at the source if you want to see those. I’m not up for copying that many videos over here individually, and don’t really think they are essential. Personally. But there’s the link.

    Von Miller Can Turn the Rams Defense Into a Nightmare
    Los Angeles’s offense was already loaded. Now its defense is, too.

    By Ben Solak Nov 2, 2021, 6:20am EDT

    Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Rams general manager Les Snead is sending multiple picks to acquire a star defensive talent at the NFL trade deadline.

    It’s a headline from a few years ago, when Snead sent multiple first-round picks to the Jacksonville Jaguars to acquire disgruntled star cornerback Jalen Ramsey—but it’s also a headline from yesterday, as Snead sent second- and third-round picks in the upcoming draft for Broncos edge rusher Von Miller. Of course, when Snead snagged Ramsey, he was getting a 25-year-old corner in his athletic prime—the best player at his position. In Von, he’s getting a 32-year-old pass rusher who once was the best player at his position and isn’t any longer.

    The Rams Keep Carving Their Own Path in the NFL Roster Arms Race
    But it’s easy to say that Von isn’t as good as he once was—and it’s certainly true! But “not as good as he once was” can still be really, really good when that player is Von Miller. Von isn’t a shadow of what he once was. He’s a doggone good player who, even off of a 2020 Achilles injury, looks like a double-digit sack producer. That’s what the Rams paid for, and that’s what they will get.

    Von was the poster boy for bendy outside rushers for most of his prime, and he still has that incredible bend along the outside. Few players in the league can flatten their rush track and explode to the quarterback the way Miller can, as we can see on these rushes against Las Vegas OT Brandon Parker.

    This is a clear passing situation, which allows Miller to tee off from a wide outside alignment and win the race to the corner. With no tight end in place to chip Miller, that race is an easy win—but it’s Miller’s ability to turn all of his forward momentum on a tight corner and into the quarterback that has long made him such a dangerous pass rusher.

    But everyone knows the book on Von, and accordingly, he gets plenty of tight end chips and tackles flying to the outside trying to beat him in the race to the corner. Von has been such a good rusher for so long because he has counters and changeups that build off of the threat of that explosive outside rush. The older he gets, the more he relies on those counters, using block recognition and varied technique to win.

    The speed-to-power rush is the primary move here. Miller has always had a tremendous power rush to pair with his explosiveness and bend, and when tackles are sitting back on their heels worried about his speed, he can easily knock them back into the quarterback. He did it multiple times against Jacksonville and its quality right tackle, Jawaan Taylor. With Taylor taking deep sets and fearing the outside rush, Miller regularly deposited him into Trevor Lawrence’s lap.

    If a tackle oversets even farther in fear of the outside rush, then Miller doesn’t even need to rush with power—he can just use his wicked change-of-direction skills to knife inside the tackle and shoot for the quarterback early in the down. When quarterbacks quickly hitch up in the pocket to protect themselves from Miller’s presence on the outside rush, they often play right into Miller’s hands, as he’s waiting for them on the inside attack.

    This is why Miller has retained his high rates of pressure and disruptions, even if he has passed his physical peak. Miller’s 22 total pressures against true pass sets is tied for seventh-most among league edge rushers, per Pro Football Focus; his win rate is at 29.9 percent, which is the 11th-best mark in the league. Don’t get it twisted—he’s still got wicked physical traits. But it’s his athleticism, along with the technical prowess, that have made him such a dynamic pass rusher for so long. As such, we can say with confidence that he’s the best edge rusher to ever play next to Rams star defensive tackle Aaron Donald. That’s a frightening thought.

    It’s frightening because of what Donald has done for pass rushers throughout his career. After L.A. traded star outside rusher Robert Quinn in 2018, the Rams have largely gone in the bargain bin at the position. They acquired Dante Fowler Jr. via trade, and he churned out 11.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss in 2019, and in the 19 games he’s played in Atlanta since, he has five total sacks and six total tackles for loss. Clay Matthews also joined the Rams in 2019 and at age 33, delivered eight sacks in 13 games, his most effective season since 2014.

    In 2020, the Rams cycled in Leonard Floyd, an ex-first-round pick who struggled to meet expectations in a Vic Fangio–coached defense in Chicago. The Rams’ new defensive coordinator, Brandon Staley, was Floyd’s positional coach under Fangio in Chicago for two seasons. Staley was able to finally unlock Floyd in Los Angeles with a little help from Donald: Floyd hit double-digit sacks (10.5) and tackles for loss (11) in 2020, both for the first time in his career, and the Rams doled out a four-year, $64 million extension accordingly.

    The Von trade isn’t a reflection on Floyd’s performance in 2021. Floyd has 6.5 sacks in eight games, and is well on his way to posting career numbers yet again. Rather, Von is a force multiplier for both Floyd and Donald—players to whom the Rams already have multiyear financial commitments. Von will be an unrestricted free agent after this season and therefore may play just this one season with the Rams, but he will benefit greatly from the Donald boost just as so many players have before him.

    There are only a few obstacles to reaching unprecedented levels of defensive line insanity for Los Angeles. The first is figuring out where exactly to play Von and Floyd on base downs. Von has taken 292 of his 323 snaps this season (90 percent) off the left side of the defense (against the offense’s right tackle). Floyd has taken 375 of his 407 snaps on the same side of the line (92 percent). Something’s gotta give there.

    Given Von’s proven success and veteran status, as opposed to Floyd’s recent resurgence, I’d imagine the Rams kick Von over to the opposite side. Von missed all of 2020, but in the three seasons prior, he played at least 110 snaps on the right side of the defense. Switching sides can be a tough ask and may require a few weeks of onboarding, but Von should be more than up for the job. Von on the right will take second-year man Terrell Lewis and third-year man Ogbonnia Okoronkwo off of the field, and while Lewis is a flashy player, the Rams should feel fine with that exchange. Neither holds a candle to Von as a pass rusher, and he has them beat as a run defender as well.

    The next riddle to figure out is what exactly to do on passing downs, and that’s where this trade gets really exciting. Staley was with the Bears when they used Floyd as a “spinner”: a player athletic enough to stand up as a linebacker and play in the second level or push up onto the line of scrimmage as a potential blitzer. Blitz-heavy teams love to use spinners—Melvin Ingram III and T.J. Watt in Pittsburgh are great examples—to screw with protection rules and counts from opposing offensive lines. Protections are built assuming that your most dangerous pass rushers are the two guys coming off the edges, so moving your best rushers around takes advantage of that assumption. Here’s a great clip of Floyd from Brandon Thorn’s article on the Fangio defense from The Athletic a few seasons ago. Floyd is lined up as a stand-up rusher over the guard on the same side of the ball as Khalil Mack. Mack and Floyd run a twist, and Floyd gets a free shot at the quarterback.

    With Floyd and Donald in hand last season, Staley and the Rams could get mighty funky with their fronts. They’d isolate Donald as a defensive end and put all their other rushers on the other side of the ball; then, they’d do the same thing, but with Floyd as the isolated rusher. They’d ask Floyd to use his explosiveness to crash inside on stunts, freeing up Donald to loop around the outside and take his free shot at the quarterback. On this Leonard Floyd sack from Steven Ruiz’s article on the 2020 Rams under Staley, running back David Montgomery is unavailable to offer chip help to the right tackle, as he (and the rest of the Bears line) are worried about a looping Donald. Floyd wins his rep, and with Donald securing the quarterback’s escape route, gets an easy sack.

    On these clear passing downs, blitz packages have been money for the 2021 Rams. When sending five-plus rushers this season, the Rams have 13 total sacks, 58 pressures, and five forced fumbles—only the Bucs and the Cardinals, two teams blitzing at much higher rates than the Rams, are producing at similar volume. They’ve gotten a sack on 17.8 percent of those rushes (best in the league), and a pressure on 69 percent (third best). On those blitz packages, we often see the Rams twist their line in front of the blitzers, with the intent of manipulating protection rules into predictable checks. Those checks create one-on-ones that the Rams can predict and exploit.

    Take this third-and-10 rep against the Texans. The Rams line Floyd (no. 54) up way outside the right tackle, and then put five potential rushers on the line of scrimmage over the ball and to the opposite side of the field. The Texans understandably slide their protection away from Floyd and toward Donald and the heavy numbers of the Rams, which gives Floyd the one-on-one for the sack.

    That one-on-one was expected; almost guaranteed. The Texans are keeping the back in to pass protect, and the tight end is helping chip the opposite edge rusher. But with safety Taylor Rapp (no. 24) blitzing to occupy the running back, Floyd has an unobstructed outside edge to attack. He executes one of his favorite rushes—the cross-chop to get around right tackle Charlie Heck—and bears down on quarterback Davis Mills. Mills has little room to step up, given the interior twist the Rams ran with Donald (99) and Greg Gaines (91) to muddy the pocket. The opposite edge rusher is even taking a wide, patient path to contain Mills should he try to escape to that side. The alignment and activity offered Floyd the one-on-one, and he won it.

    Von is a force multiplier in these contexts. He’s a devastating individual rusher, so the presence of Donald should help him see more one-on-ones, which he will win even more often than Floyd. But Von is such a dangerous rusher that chip help from tight ends and running backs releasing in routes will likely go to him, which should provide easier wins for Floyd on the other side. On passing downs, the Rams can now twist and stunt not just with Donald and Floyd, but with Donald and Von from standard fronts; in funky fronts, they can place Floyd as a stand-up interior rush with Von on the same side of the formation, while leaving Donald isolated on the opposite side. Von, like Floyd, is a devastating crasher on stunts because of his velocity and physicality—and when he knifes into those interior gaps, he has the bend to flatten his rush and still get to the quarterback.

    There’s no schematic solution to all this. It’s essentially impossible to provide chip help to both sides for the entire game while also devoting multiple men to Donald on the interior. Eventually, someone on the offensive line has to survive a one-on-one fight, and against Donald and Miller, that’s a losing proposition for most offensive linemen. You either have the offensive line to block up the Rams’ front, or you don’t, and even if you do, the Rams can send all of these bodies flying in every direction, along with a blitzer or two, and test your communication and recognition as well. This is a nightmare, and it lasts for all four quarters.

    The Rams’ defense is evolving into a new beast under defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. All season they’ve been riddling out what works and what doesn’t as they’re still recovering from the offseason departure of Staley and many of his key role players. Now, their late-season upswing will be kick-started by the acquisition of yet another star talent, yet another weapon to add to their already terrifying arsenal. With Von in hand, they are a defense of headaches that cannot be beaten on the chessboard or exposed for its weakness; their stars are simply too many and too bright to be ignored or snuffed out. The offense is loaded, and the defense is too. The Rams are ready for their Super Bowl run.

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    Federal Court: Anti-Vaxxers Do Not Have a Constitutional or Statutory Right to Endanger Everyone Else

    * https://www.druganddevicelawblog.com/2021/09/federal-court-anti-vaxxers-do-not-have-a-constitutional-or-statutory-right-to-endanger-everyone-else.html

    Today we discuss a putative class action in which the named plaintiffs are a registered nurse who refuses to take a basic precaution to protect her vulnerable patients and a mother who is more interested in displaying her livestock than protecting her neighbors. Brought on behalf of all New Mexico residents who are equally selfish, the plaintiffs sought an injunction barring the state from enforcing a public health order that requires (with limited exceptions) all hospital, nursing-home, assisted-living-facility, adult-day-care, rehabilitation-facility, and prison workers, all employees of the governor’s office, and all who would enter the New Mexico State Fair grounds to be vaccinated against the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19. The plaintiffs asserted various constitutional and statutory claims. In a thorough and trenchant decision, Valdez v. Grisham, — F. Supp. 3d —-, 2021 WL 4145746 (D.N.M. 2021), a federal district court rejected them all. That is consistent with long-standing precedent and other recent decisions—as we discussed here, here, and here.

    The plaintiffs’ first claim was that requiring them to be vaccinated with “experimental” vaccines violated the FDCA. The claim was predicated on the fact that, at the time suit was filed, the three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines available in the United States—the Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines—had not received full FDA approval and were instead being distributed and administered under Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs). The plaintiffs claimed that requiring them to be vaccinated violated the terms of the vaccines’ EUAs, which require that those receiving each vaccine be informed of its “benefits and risks” and “of the option to accept or refuse” its administration. 2021 WL 4145746, at *4.

    The court rejected the plaintiffs’ FDCA claim.

    Implicitly responding to the plaintiffs’ assertion that the vaccines were “experimental,” the court recited at the outset both the extensive testing that each had undergone before the EUAs were granted, including “at least one well-designed Phase 3 clinical trial that demonstrate[d] the vaccine’s safety and efficacy in a clear and compelling manner,” and the fact that “[c]omprehensive data collected since the three vaccines received EUA status demonstrates that they are safe and highly effective in preventing infection and severe illness, and that serious adverse side effects from the vaccines are exceedingly rare.” 2021 WL 4145746, at *1. The court further observed that, “despite Plaintiffs’ protestation to the contrary, the FDA has now given its full approval—not just emergency use authorization—to the Pfizer vaccine” for administration to those 16 and older. Id. at *4. That did not moot the plaintiffs’ statutory claim, however, because the livestock-display-over-human-health plaintiff asserted the claim on behalf of not only herself but also her 11- and 12-year-old children, who were also keen to “show[] their animals” at the state fair. Id. at *2.

    Addressing the merits of the plaintiffs’ FDCA claim, the court found that there were none. It explained that although the EUAs issued pursuant to the FDCA require “medical providers” administering the vaccines to inform would-be recipients of the risks associated with each vaccine and their right to refuse it, the EUAs do not prohibit the state from requiring individuals, duly informed by their medical providers, to be vaccinated. Id. at *4. In so holding, the court cited both Bridges v. Houston Methodist Hosp., 2021 WL 2399994, at *2 (S.D. Tex. 2021), which rejected a nearly-identical anti-vaxxer claim on the ground that the FDCA “neither expands nor restricts the responsibilities of private employers” and “does not confer a private opportunity to sue the government,” and a recent Department of Justice Office of Legal Counsel memorandum opinion concluding that the FDCA’s informed-consent provision “specifies only that certain information be provided to potential vaccine recipients and does not prohibit entities from imposing vaccination requirements.”

    Having dispensed with their statutory claim, the court proceeded to dispense with the plaintiffs’ constitutional claims—brought under the Due Process, Equal Protection, and Contract Clauses.

    Asserting a violation of their right to substantive due process, the plaintiffs alleged that they “‘have [constitutionally] protected liberty interests’ ‘in their right to live without governmental interference,’ their right ‘to bodily integrity,’ their right ‘to raise their children as they see fit,’ and their right ‘to engage in their chosen professions,’ and that because the state’s public health order is ‘not narrowly tailored,’ it violates these substantive due process rights.” 2021 WL 4145746, at *5.

    Relying on well-established constitutional precedent, the court explained that a two-part analytic framework applies when a legislative enactment or executive action is challenged on substantive due-process grounds. The first step is to identify the “fundamental liberty interest” purportedly at issue. The second step is to determine whether that interest “is ‘deeply rooted in this Nation’s history and tradition’ and ‘implicit in the concept of ordered liberty, such that neither liberty nor justice would exist if they were sacrificed.’” 2021 WL 4145746, at *5 (indirectly quoting Washington v. Glucksberg, 521 U.S. 702, 720–21 (1997)). If the asserted liberty interest meets that standard, then the government may not infringe it “‘unless the infringement is narrowly tailored to serve a compelling state interest.’” Id. (quoting Glucksberg, 521 U.S. at 721). If, by contrast, the legislative enactment or executive action “does not implicate a fundamental right,” the action is permissible if it “bear a rational relationship to a legitimate government interest.” Id. (quotation marks omitted).

    The court found that the plaintiffs did “not explain how the rights allegedly violated by the [public health order] are fundamental.” 2021 WL 4145746, at *5. “ndeed nowhere,” said the court, did the plaintiffs “address how the right to work in a hospital or attend the State Fair, unvaccinated and during a pandemic, is ‘deeply rooted in this Nation’s history and tradition.’” Id.

    In their request for preliminary relief, the plaintiffs relied on “the right to ‘engage in their chosen profession.’” 2021 WL 4145746, at *5. That, however, was no help to them, the court held, because “the Tenth Circuit”—the circuit within which the court sits—”has unequivocally held that the ‘right to practice in [one’s] chosen profession … does not invoke heightened scrutiny.’” Id. (quoting Guttman v. Khalsa, 669 F.3d 1101, 1118 (10th Cir. 2012)). Thus, said the court, “while Plaintiffs may ‘have a right to engage in their chosen professions,’ governmental infringement on this right will be “‘presumed to be valid’” so long as it is “‘rationally related to a legitimate state interest.”’” Id. (quoting Klaassen v. Trustees of Indiana Univ., 2021 WL 3073926, at *17 (N.D. Ind. 2021), in turn quoting City of Cleburne v. Cleburne Living Ctr., 473 U.S. 432, 440 (1985)).

    Moreover, said the court, “federal courts have consistently held that vaccine mandates do not implicate a fundamental right and that rational basis review therefore applies in determining the constitutionality of such mandates.” 2021 WL 4145746, at *5. Applying that standard, the court rejected the plaintiffs’ substantive due-process claim, concluding that “[t]he vaccination requirements set forth in the [New Mexico public health order], … grounded in medicine and science, are rationally related to [the state’s] legitimate purpose of protecting our community ‘against an epidemic of disease [that] threatens the safety of its members.’” Id. at *8 (quoting Jacobson v. Massachusetts, 197 U.S. 11, 27 (1905)).

    As Bexis did last month, the Valdez court explained that “[w]ith its decision in Jacobson”—which upheld “a Cambridge, Massachusetts regulation that required all adult inhabitants of that city, without exception, to be vaccinated against smallpox”—“the Supreme Court ‘settled that it is within the police power of a state to provide for compulsory vaccination.’” 2021 WL 4145746, at *6–7 (quoting Zucht v. King, 260 U.S. 174, 176 (1922)).

    All that is necessary for state action to survive the “rational basis test” is that it bear “a rational relationship to a legitimate government interest.” Glucksberg, 521 U.S. at 721. The Valdez court found that New Mexico’s vaccination requirements did more than that, concluding that “[t]he governmental purpose of stemming the spread of COVID-19, especially in the wake of the Delta variant, is not only legitimate, but is unquestionably a compelling interest.” 2021 WL 4145746, at *7 (quotation marks omitted).

    Having rejected plaintiffs’ substantive-due-process claim on the ground that that the New Mexico public health order requiring certain people to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 “meets the rational basis test” (2021 WL 4145746, at *8), the Valdez court quickly disposed of the plaintiffs’ remaining constitutional claims. It concluded that the plaintiffs’ equal-protection, procedural-due-process, and impairment-of-contract claims were also subject to rational-basis review and that they therefore failed for the same reasons as the plaintiffs’ substantive-due-process claim. Id. at *9–11.

    Finding that plaintiffs were unlikely to prevail on the merits of their claims, and that the remaining equitable factors likewise cut squarely against them, the court denied the preliminary injunction that the plaintiffs requested.

    Onward to full vaccination.

    #132379

    In reply to: Goff in Detroit

    Avatar photonittany ram
    Moderator

    For me, Goff may be the most frustrating player the Rams ever had.

    So good in so many ways, so not so good in so many ways…

    He almost but not quite but kinda sorta but not really gets it.

    I just…ya know…I just see him screw up basic clock management again and again…and I – unfairly, or not – just think about how the dude did not know where the sun sets, as an adult, after spending 4 years at UC Berkeley.

    There is something “not there” with that guy. He has his head in the clouds sometimes.

    He has the physical ability. We saw throws last night that we didn’t see him make all last year, but had seen previously. I saw somewhere that Stafford has already equaled Goff’s yearlong total from last season of TD passes 15+ yards.

    He can throw the ball. But he lost his confidence with the Rams, probably because McVay lost patience with his brainlessness, and trashed him, instead of patiently nurturing him. McVay may just be too smart for his own good. His ability to recognize patterns on the field is off the charts. It comes easily to him, and he has to learn how to communicate with people for whom it doesn’t come easily. Speaking as a genius myself, I understand the pain. {emoji of something}.

    Maybe Stafford can go all ‘Beautiful Mind’ with McVay and see the patterns unfold while dodging DEs, but I think too much is made of that. You don’t have to be a ‘rocket surgeon’ to excel at QB in the NFL. Marino and Montana were dolts but they are among the best QBs of all time. I don’t know what Goff’s issue is, but I don’t think it’s about intelligence or lack thereof.

    #132376

    In reply to: Goff in Detroit

    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    For me, Goff may be the most frustrating player the Rams ever had.

    So good in so many ways, so not so good in so many ways…

    He almost but not quite but kinda sorta but not really gets it.

    I just…ya know…I just see him screw up basic clock management again and again…and I – unfairly, or not – just think about how the dude did not know where the sun sets, as an adult, after spending 4 years at UC Berkeley.

    There is something “not there” with that guy. He has his head in the clouds sometimes.

    He has the physical ability. We saw throws last night that we didn’t see him make all last year, but had seen previously. I saw somewhere that Stafford has already equaled Goff’s yearlong total from last season of TD passes 15+ yards.

    He can throw the ball. But he lost his confidence with the Rams, probably because McVay lost patience with his brainlessness, and trashed him, instead of patiently nurturing him. McVay may just be too smart for his own good. His ability to recognize patterns on the field is off the charts. It comes easily to him, and he has to learn how to communicate with people for whom it doesn’t come easily. Speaking as a genius myself, I understand the pain. {emoji of something}.

    #132137
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Matthew Stafford’s not-so-normal debut, Jalen Ramsey’s ‘Star’ showcases Rams’ teammates and more: The Pile

    Jourdan Rodrigue

    https://theathletic.com/2822102/2021/09/13/matthew-staffords-not-so-normal-debut-jalen-ramseys-star-showcases-rams-teammates-and-more-the-pile/

    INGLEWOOD, Calif. — No, it wasn’t symbolic that new Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford went out to the center of the field at SoFi Stadium pregame for the coin toss, as the team’s lone captain in his Los Angeles debut (or so said head coach Sean McVay). No, it wasn’t symbolic that Stafford wore the same “smiley” sweater issued to him for an ESPN cover shoot over the summer during his postgame interview (he said his wife, Kelly, told him to wear it).

    Even his second pass of Sunday night’s 34-14 win over the Bears — a 67-yard touchdown bomb downfield to second-year receiver Van Jefferson — wasn’t symbolic of a new air-yards era (although, it may have felt that way for the thousands of fans present for the first time since the stadium opened and the many more who were watching the broadcast at home).

    No, Stafford indicated, in pleasant “deferral” mode when up at the podium postgame as he usually is, even after his standout performance. No, that’s just football. Normal stuff.

    “Once the ball is snapped it’s football,” Stafford said postgame. “There’s new plays in a new stadium, throwing to guys in a different uniform. But I’m happy where I’m at and I’m pleased with how it went tonight.”

    One thing was made completely clear by McVay in the spring, after he pushed to trade for Stafford and send former No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff to Detroit in exchange: A world without explosive passing plays, after nearly two years spent sputtering a small-ball attack downfield, was “not the world (he) wanted to live in”. In Stafford-world, thanks to a blend of newly designed concepts (Cooper Kupp’s 56-yard score, for example, was the product of a few people — receivers and quarterback included — putting their heads together in camp) and McVay’s own scheme, a lack of explosive air-yards plays will certainly not be a topic of discussion. Stafford averaged 16.05 yards per attempt against the Bears.

    “It was exactly what we wanted,” McVay said, “and it was from a bunch of different guys.”

    Just football, though. Ho, hum. Just 321 yards and three touchdowns on 20 completed passes (and 26 attempts), that’s all.

    “(It was) just a play action on the first one to Van (Jefferson),” Stafford said of the first two explosive passes. “He did a great job of getting behind the defense. Our guys up front did a great job on that one. I had all day. And I was able to shoot that one down to the field to him. He did a great job getting up and scoring which is always fun.

    “And then the second one to Cooper, that was a great call by Sean (McVay). Perfect coverage for the play. Our guys up front again gave me a bunch of time. It takes time for guys to get down the field. Cooper did a great job, again, just getting behind the defense and I was able to get it out there to a decent spot for him.”

    Even star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, from whom praise is a coveted thing around the Rams’ locker room, said that Stafford’s debut should “go down in history” (he’s right, by the way — Stafford’s 156.1 rating is the highest of any quarterback making his debut with a new team in history).

    “Just the way he played,” said Ramsey. “His swag, like … I’m not all into the stats all the time, but his stats were probably crazy, too.”

    No, no, Stafford just wants us to think that’s normal. Sure, the Rams struggled some in the red zone, which hearkened back to the woes of 2020. Sure, they didn’t run the ball much until the game was over and they needed to play the clock out and will certainly need to find a balance there. Sure, their defense will want a few conversions back on its longer drives allowed.

    Overall, though, Stafford’s night was not normal, no matter how much he defers. His third-down touchdown pass to Robert Woods in the fourth quarter, for example, was anything but. Stafford stood, patient as the play broke down around him in the red zone, flicking his eyes through one read, two … before firing an arm-angled dart to Woods in the back of the end zone, which Woods caught and tip-toed it in-bounds for the score. So perhaps it’s more of a steadiness within the extraordinary that Stafford possesses as a quality. We don’t know just yet — it’s just one game, and it’s football, after all.

    But maybe — maybe — these throws he makes, these coverages he perplexes and fools, even the goofy high-step he did downfield to celebrate with Jefferson following his touchdown catch — will start to feel “normal”.

    Wouldn’t that be something?

    Welcome back to The Pile. Let’s start poking around.

    Kenny Young and David Long Jr. climbing

    It seemed fitting that two up-and-comers with a lot to prove in emerging roles combined on the Rams’ game-opening defensive takeaway.

    After a gouging explosive run play, the Rams were pushed back into their own red zone and risked giving up a touchdown. But inside linebacker Kenny Young tipped an Andy Dalton pass, and cornerback David Long Jr. slid under it in the end zone for the interception.

    Young has emerged as the Rams’ lead inside linebacker, and is often the “one” when they move to the 5-1 fronts that they frequently use. Sunday night, he also recovered a Dalton fumble.

    “He did a great job,” McVay said. “Going back to last year, I thought he really picked up where he left off. He’s had a great training camp, and done a great job of demonstrating the versatility he has both being able to defend the run, but also making timely plays in pass coverage.”

    Long entered the spring with a spotlight on him, following the departure of veteran cornerback Troy Hill in free agency. With Ramsey often playing inside (in the “Star”) position, Long has been asked to step up on the outside and as quarterbacks avoid Ramsey, the expectation is that he’ll be targeted more frequently. Long did exit the game with cramps (he was fine postgame) and rookie Robert Rochell broke up a fourth-down pass as his replacement, but prior to his exit Long had put together a nice outing that included the interception and two pass breakups.

    The ‘Star’ was out

    If you’ve followed the coverage in this space, you know all about the “Star” on the Rams’ defense: Ramsey’s expanded role, in which he plays all over the field including in the slot, as a hybrid outside linebacker and, of course as an outside cornerback when needed as well.

    Ramsey had nine tackles Sunday, trailing only starting safety Jordan Fuller and Young (11 and 10, respectively), including two for a loss, and he broke up a pass as well on fourth down. His play of the game, perhaps, came late in the first quarter when he sniffed out a screen play out of what appeared to be a stacked or bunched concept, and dragged one blocking receiver along with him to make the stop on the other player. Lakers star LeBron James even tweeted about Ramsey after that one.

    “I’m being put in positions that I’ve never been put in before, to make plays and do things for the team,” Ramsey said. “I was kind of just doing that.”

    Run defense a worry?

    The Rams allowed a 41-yard explosive run on their first defensive series and had trouble with Bears running back David Montgomery for most of the game after that. Montgomery eclipsed 100 rushing yards by the start of the fourth quarter and scored a touchdown.

    The Rams, as we know, present light boxes as a defense (five- and six-man fronts) more often than not, and that invites the run. However, they play gap-and-a-half against the run, which when sound doesn’t allow for those chunk run plays above three or four yards at a time on average. This also helps their coverage put more of a helmet over the top of the field and allows defensive backs to play down, instead of overcommitting into the box and perhaps letting the ball get behind them. The latter part of the defensive plan was very effective for the Rams against Dalton and the Bears’ receivers, as he was only able to average 4.4 yards per play.

    Again, this defense is built to allow the smaller bits and pieces because its goal is to contain the back-breaking explosive pass (ironically, something the Bears defense fell prey to on the other side). Yet there’s a fine line to walk, too, because they need to actually get off the field (the second of two Bears’ scoring drives was 16 plays and 81 yards long, including seven first downs). The Rams will need to be more effective in stopping the run because otherwise teams can keep them on the field longer and maintain clock control (especially if they have a lead). It was telling that, even while playing from a deficit, the Bears continued to run the ball.

    Run-pass balance

    I’m not going to get too nitpicky after the first game, but the Rams have not done much after this first game to establish what their rushing attack will be — or the balance it may or may not provide. This might not seem like a big deal (and of course, multiple explosive air-yards plays in the first half are certainly going to make things lopsided to the tune of only 13 throws and seven rushing attempts for 12 yards at the half, then 33 total plays on offense heading into the fourth quarter), but it’s something to keep track of because of the way that McVay’s passing attack has traditionally been predicated upon that establishment of the run, how that sets up the play-action and then can “sell” certain concepts out of that action. No, you don’t technically have to use the run to sell the play-action … but it helps, and this offense has previously certainly needed it.

    “It’s hard to say, (but) I think in a lot of instances I’m more worried about being able to move the ball and score points,” McVay said. “You do want to be cognizant of that. I think the best offenses have the ability to do both. But I think it was more a result of minimal plays, but also being able to run some things that we felt was the smartest way to be able to move the football against a really tough defense. They did a good job of really being stout at the point of attack against some of the runs and were doing some things that really forced us to shift in the direction of throwing it (more) a bit early on.”

    The explosive plays give us a hit of that sweet, sweet dopamine — and I’m the last person to get stuffy about a heavy passing attack — but remember, being too one-dimensional on offense is part of what did the Rams in down the stretch in 2019 and 2020. So continuing to build layers in every phase will be important. It’s a nitpick, but at their 25-play mark, they were (minus the 127 yards attained solely on two passing plays) averaging just 4.6 yards per play and about 1.9 yards per rush play.

    • I didn’t mind the offensive line tonight, for the most part — but I also didn’t see a ton of ground work early on, obviously, because the Rams didn’t run the ball much through the first three quarters. One point of concern came off a sack of Stafford for a loss of nine yards, during which he may have been able to get the ball out of his hands for a positive play, but had no pocket to step into.

    • Jefferson had a career-yards night, finishing with two catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on three targets (his other catch was a fourth-down conversion). The second-year receiver has been working a lot as an “X” receiver/detached from the core of the offense at times throughout camp, and his rapport with Stafford particularly on throws downfield was notable. Jefferson mentioned to me after a practice this week that he feels he has grown exponentially after getting thrown into things as a rookie in 2020, with no preseason and a fuller playbook to learn than many rookie receivers.

    “I just want to prove it to myself, prove what I can do,” Jefferson said postgame. “I got a lot more work to do, but this is a good start, I’m far from finished. … I wouldn’t call (my touchdown) an ‘arrival’ moment, I would just say that I just have to keep putting in the body of work. I haven’t arrived yet; I really haven’t done anything. I just have to keep going, keep pushing and just keep being me.”

    • Aaron Donald got plenty of pressure throughout the game (and just missed on a couple of plays, too), but didn’t notch his first sack until the fourth quarter.

    • I love some of the wrinkles the Rams are putting in their secondary, which I mentioned above. This includes an expanded role for Darious Williams, who moved around some in correlation with wherever Ramsey was on the field — but one play I’m wanting to follow up on was the Ramsey stop out of the “bunch”/stacked formation on fourth down. It appeared on that play that, while Ramsey had moved to the outside, Fuller was disguised as the nickel player. Could that have helped persuade Dalton to throw to the outside, thinking the two players would switch? I have a hard time believing that any quarterback would throw toward Ramsey on purpose, but throw his way Dalton did. The Rams’ defensive backs are all very, very smart and very versatile, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plan expands … and of course, how it all continues to orbit around Ramsey himself.

    “A lot of guys are asked to do different roles this year, bigger roles this year,” Ramsey said.

    • Don’t forget about tight end Tyler Higbee, who was one of the recipients of a Stafford explosive play (37 yards). Higbee was utilized often in the passing game (something Stafford has historically appreciated from his tight ends) and caught five passes on six targets for 68 yards (third-most among Rams’ receivers).

    • Hello, Justin Hollins. The Rams outside linebacker was everywhere on Sunday night, perhaps with veteran outside linebacker Leonard Floyd occupying more attention. Hollins has developed into a starting role and actually tied for the fourth-most tackles with eight. Hollins also had a sack that forced a fumble.

    • New running back addition Sony Michel didn’t enter the game until late in the fourth quarter, and only had one rushing attempt for two yards. I would assume that will not be the case moving forward for Michel, who was traded to the Rams about three weeks ago.

    • One of McVay’s favorite plays of the game was a third-and-10 catch by Woods that picked up 19 yards. It’s notable that this play came directly after a no-gain run on second down — if you’ve been keeping track with coverage here through the spring and summer, you know that Stafford actually throws to his more difficult reads following a negative or non-gain play, or an interception. Woods did a great job of securing the catch, and then Stafford hit Kupp on the very next play, a 56-yard touchdown that the Rams had actually designed and practiced throughout camp. On it, Kupp gets sort of launched through the “garbage chute” (by way of some clever design and excellent route-running) and over to a coverage gap on the other side, which the Rams know comes from a certain look the Bears show.

    • A couple things the Rams will have to hammer out logistically speaking: The traffic getting into and out of the stadium was absolutely insane, even for people (such as media) who arrived four hours early. I’m not totally sure what the solution is, here, but it was almost an hour and a half from the Prairie/Manchester intersection to the press box (about a mile of distance, all-told). If that’s a problem for early people, it’s certainly going to be one for later arrivals. Another item: On crucial third and fourth downs, the Rams’ defensive players often motioned emphatically to the crowd to get loud and force offensive miscommunication. That’s something that, they hope, will be built-in as they continue to build their fan base … especially when, a play later, the louder cheers came after rookie quarterback Justin Fields’ first NFL touchdown.

    • Putting Kupp on punt return — which McVay adamantly said he would not do — says more to me about rookie receiver Tutu Atwell’s readiness than the Rams’ desire to actually put Kupp at punt return. Rookie running back Jake Funk returned kickoffs.

    #131185
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Stu Jackson@StuJRams
    Max Pircher said he was impressed with how patient the Rams veterans are with the rookies, and if they see something a younger player could do better, they teach them immediately.

    Jourdan Rodrigue@JourdanRodrigue
    So far behind coverage he was in his own space-time continuum, DeSean Jackson has the catch of the day so far on a long burn from Stafford. Big cheers after that one.

    Another long pass, aimed for Jackson over the top – this time Terrell Burgess gets vertical and stretches to tip it away. He told me he’d be 100% healthy by camp – seems about right. Great first day so far and it’s early yet.

    Rams Brothers@RamsBrothers
    Terrell Burgess apparently wants to go to the pro-bowl this year. Exactly what we need from him.

    Jourdan Rodrigue@JourdanRodrigue
    Wondered if they would bring this back – Rams are doing that quick mental stress 11/11 work w no throw, ones vs ones, that they did in the spring with good results. Point is to make it tough for Stafford within the structured stuff pre and post snap (as well as everyone else)

    Rams24/7@Rams24_7
    Noteboom/Brewer/Allen/Shelton/Anchrum 2nd team OL

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    As Rich Nations Refuse to Share Vaccines, Africa Suffers ‘Most Dire Pandemic Week’

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/2021/07/09/rich-nations-refuse-share-vaccines-africa-suffers-most-dire-pandemic-week

    Underscoring the desperate need to dramatically increase equitable access to coronavirus vaccines on a global scale, Africa just saw its worst pandemic week yet and conditions across the continent are only expected to get worse in the weeks ahead.

    With the ultra-contagious Delta variant spreading, Africa recorded over 251,000 new Covid-19 cases during the week that ended July 4—a 20% jump from the previous week and a 12% rise from the high point in January, the World Health Organization (WHO) said Thursday.

    As Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, WHO’s regional director for the continent, put it: “Africa has just marked the continent’s most dire pandemic week ever. But the worst is yet to come as the fast-moving third wave continues to gain speed and new ground.”

    “The end to this precipitous rise is still weeks away,” Moeti warned. “Cases are doubling now every 18 days, compared with every 21 days only a week ago. We can still break the chain of transmission by testing, isolating contacts and cases, and following key public health measures.”

    According to BBC News:

    There are 23 countries on the continent that have so far experienced a third wave of infections, with Senegal and Malawi the latest two to be affected.

    Of those, 13 are experiencing a more severe wave than before, the Africa CDC says, with Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Namibia, Zambia, Rwanda, and Tunisia the worst hit.

    Cases in Afria

    Liberia, during the final two weeks of last month, saw Covid-19 cases surge by more than 300%.

    “Since the beginning of June, we’ve had 21 deaths,” Dr. Richard Doe, clinical coordinator at a Covid-19 treatment unit in the capital, Monrovia, told Al Jazeera. “Just to put that into perspective, it’s more than we had from March to December last year.”

    “Our facilities here are struggling,” said Doe, explaining that a lack of human resources means ventilators are not being used. “We need the public to help us in this fight against Covid. As long as the people out there do not practice those basic things—wearing masks, hand hygiene, social distancing, and getting vaccinated where available, it will be like a rat race we can’t keep up with.”

    CNN on Friday detailed some scenes from South Africa:

    Patients are crammed into every corner of the hospital’s emergency room ward. They lie on beds and gurneys, or sit slumped in wheelchairs. Many suck on oxygen, but nobody talks. Some die while waiting for a bed.

    On the worst nights in Johannesburg, currently in the grips of a terrible wave of infections, medics at one hospital must turn away ambulances carrying Covid-19 patients. It may be a diversion order more common to mass casualty events, but 16 months into the pandemic here, Covid-19 is a mass casualty event.

    “It’s devastating, it’s soul destroying,” said a senior doctor at a major public hospital in Johannesburg. “We are trained to save lives, but you revert to that wartime mentality. You revert to becoming numbed, you revert to becoming blunted.”

    The doctor explained that cars are arriving at the hospital “with desperately ill patients who have been turned away from other hospitals with no beds.”

    The outbreak in South Africa is now largely driven by the Delta variant, the Hindustan Times reported Friday—and new research has raised concerns about the threat that variant in particular poses to the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated worldwide.

    South Africa, which on Friday announced plans to start vaccinating people under age 50, has administered at least one dose to only about 6% of its population, the newspaper noted, and just over 2% of people there are fully vaccinated.

    Although that figure starkly contrasts with vaccination rates in rich countries such as the the United States, it is slightly higher than the continent’s numbers. Only 16 million, or less than 2%, of Africans are now fully vaccinated.

    Globally, nearly a quarter of people have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine—but only 1% of people in low-income countries have had at least one shot, according to Our World in Data.

    A total of 66 million vaccine doses have been delivered to Africa—largely through bilateral deals and the WHO-led COVAX—and 50 million doses have been administered, but several countries are rapidly using up their supplies, the United Nations agency warns.

    Moeti on Thursday highlighted that more doses are headed for the continent.

    “COVAX partners are working around the clock to clinch dose-sharing pledges and procurement deals with manufacturers to ensure that the most vulnerable Africans get a Covid-19 vaccination quickly,” the WHO regional director said. “These efforts are paying off. Our appeals for ‘we first and not me first’ are finally turning talk into action. But the deliveries can’t come soon enough because the third wave looms large across the continent.”

    “With much larger Covid-19 vaccine deliveries expected to arrive in July and August, African countries must use this time to prepare to rapidly expand the roll-out,” she added. “Governments and partners can do this by planning to expand vaccination sites, improving cold chain capacities beyond capital cities, sensitizing communities to boost vaccine confidence and demand, and ensuring that operational funding is ready to go when it is needed.”

    Even given those anticipated deliveries, public health leaders and justice advocates continue to decry the nationalistic approaches that wealthy nations have taken throughout the pandemic.

    “Vaccine nationalism, where a handful of nations have taken the lion’s share, is morally indefensible,” Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO’s director-General, declared Wednesday.

    “Variants are currently winning the race against vaccines because of inequitable vaccine production and distribution, which also threatens the global economic recovery,” Tedros added. “It didn’t have to be this way and it doesn’t have to be this way going forward.”

    The global Covid-19 death toll topped four million this week and provoked fresh demands that members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) support a temporary waiver of intellectual property rights for vaccines.

    “This is a moral and human rights catastrophe,” Colm O’Gorman, executive director of Amnesty Ireland, tweeted Thursday in response to the world’s Covid-19 casualties.

    “It’s still not too late for Ireland to step up and do what is simply right,” O’Gorman added, urging governments against the WTO waiver to “put people’s lives and human rights ahead of the profits of Big Pharma.”

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Nurses fired for not getting COVID-19 vaccine explain their rationale

    https://news.yahoo.com/fbi-begins-arresting-individuals-attacked-150259506.html

    More than 100 staff members at Houston Methodist Hospital who were fired for refusing to get vaccinated for COVID-19 appealed a judge’s ruling that sided with the hospital’s right to terminate their employment.

    “We are going to most likely go all the way up to the Supreme Court,” Jennifer Bridges, a registered nurse and the lead plaintiff in the lawsuit filed by 117 former employees of the hospital, told Yahoo News.

    Health care facilities across the country routinely require their employees to be vaccinated for a host of viruses, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes on its website, including the coronavirus.

    “It is our responsibility to prevent ourselves from getting ill and from spreading the disease to others,” Dr. Leana Wen, a public health professor at George Washington University, told Yahoo News. “This should not be a choice that individual providers are able to make when this is actually about our job, our oath, the responsibility that we signed up for to care for our most vulnerable patients.”

    Bridges is one of 153 workers who were fired or resigned from Houston Methodist last Monday after refusing to comply with the hospital’s vaccine mandate, the Texas Tribune reported. The hospital system — comprising nearly 25,000 employees — was one of the first employers in the country to require COVID-19 vaccinations for its workers, announcing its policy on April 1.

    Yet despite rigorous trials involving tens of thousands of people and overwhelming research that proves the three emergency FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective in preventing the spread of the disease as well as death from it, some medical workers remain skeptical.

    “I’m not anti-vax. I’ve had all my other vaccines, but this one was rushed and it didn’t have the proper research,” Bridges said, adding, “I would rather take my chances rather than get the shot.”

    Since instituting its policy requiring workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19, Houston Methodist has been unwavering in its stance.

    “Our decision to mandate the COVID vaccine for all of our employees was not made lightly and is based on the proven science that the vaccines are not only safe, but extremely effective,” Amy Rose, a spokesperson for Houston Methodist, told Becker’s Healthcare in May. “As healthcare workers, we’ve taken a sacred oath to do everything possible to keep our patients safe and healthy.”

    Last month, a federal judge dismissed Bridges’s initial lawsuit against the hospital, in which she claimed the hospital had forced staffers to be “guinea pigs” for vaccines.

    “This is not coercion,” U.S. District Judge Lynn Hughes wrote in his dissent on June 12. “Methodist is trying to do their business of saving lives without giving them the COVID-19 virus. It is a choice made to keep staff, patients, and their families safer.”

    Houston Methodist CEO Marc Boom applauded the ruling in a statement. “We can now put this behind us and continue our focus on unparalleled safety, quality, service and innovation,” the statement read.

    In an internal memo sent to employees on June 8 that was shared with Yahoo News, Boom thanked employees for helping the hospital get through a difficult time.

    “Since I announced this mandate in April, Houston Methodist has been challenged by the media, some outspoken employees and even sued,” he wrote in the memo. “As the first hospital system to mandate COVID-19 vaccines, we were prepared for this. The criticism is sometimes the price we pay for leading medicine.”

    More than 156 million Americans have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of July 2, according to the CDC data tracker. Only a tiny fraction of people who have been vaccinated experience “breakthrough cases.”

    “There will be a small percentage of fully vaccinated people who still get sick, are hospitalized, or die from COVID-19,” the CDC site reads. “Like with other vaccines, vaccine breakthrough cases will occur, even though the vaccines are working as expected.”

    As of Friday afternoon, more than 33 million Americans have tested positive for COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic and more than 602,000 have died from the disease. In Texas, more than 2.9 million people have tested positive for the virus and 52,000 have died from it.

    Those statistics have not motivated some medical professionals to get vaccinated for COVID-19. Freenea Stewart is another former employee at Houston Methodist who was fired for defying the hospital’s vaccine policy.

    “This isn’t about my job,” Stewart, a former charge nurse, told Yahoo News. “This is about you saying we have to get this vaccine. [In the hospital] you could cut the tension with a knife, between those who were vaccinated and those who weren’t.”

    Stewart was terminated on June 21 even though she contracted COVID-19 earlier this year. She believes the antibodies she gained from the illness should have been enough to exempt her from vaccination, and she questions why the hospital didn’t allow her to keep her job.

    “I want my body to use its immune system to work. That’s the best antibody to give,” she said, before echoing a frequent refrain from those skeptical of vaccines. “There is not enough information about the vaccine yet. … My body has no idea what is in that shot.”

    Like many Republican lawmakers, Stewart believes that an individual’s right to decide whether to get vaccinated outweighs considerations of public health.

    “Everyone needs to do what they think is best for them and their right to choose,” she said. “In the United States we have freedom of choice. That is what makes the United States so amazing.”

    But for other medical professionals, freedom of choice has its limits, especially during a pandemic.

    Yahoo News Medical Contributor Dr. Kavita Patel, a primary care physician in Washington, D.C., who also serves as a health policy fellow at the Brookings Institution, says she is not surprised by the reluctance of some health care workers to get vaccinated.

    “Health professionals are humans too. This is a reflection of what people in America think — that the trials were not enough and they don’t want to be experiments,” Patel said. “Having said that, I think health professionals have an incredible responsibility to their patients, and ignoring the large body of clinical trial data, as well as real-world evidence, is the height of selfish irresponsibility.”

    #130720

    In reply to: "wood wide web"

    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    I missed this conversation, probably on purpose, since I had never heard of the book in 2019. My son loved it so much, I started reading it in December. Finally finished a couple of weeks ago.

    I grew impatient with the book. It seemed to drag a lot, (though I feel I take some of the responsibility for that since I took an unusually long time to read it). However, I don’t have any idea whatsoever what could be trimmed out.

    Dorothy and Ray are indispensable. The book closes with Ray providing the “self-defense” argument which is certainly intriguing, and I would love it if that argument was actually used in real life by somebody. And I think Neelay (computer whiz kid) provides the possibility of transferring all life into virtual existence. I took that as a nod to the idea that we might all be living in a computer anyway. I don’t know if I misread that or not, but if that isn’t what Powers was going for, but if it wasn’t, I have no idea what function that character had. Pretty much that’s the only thing he did in the book, and his break from his company board is over the issue of making his game exactly the same as real life instead of some fantasy world where – in the end – nothing one does actually means anything. So whether you like those three characters much or not, practically the entire book’s meaning rests on them. They are far more important than the other characters in terms of the Final Takeaways. I agree, though, that they were the three Least Interesting characters.

    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    We’ll likely never know the real story, of course, as fans, and not insiders, but it really doesn’t add up to me. Not at all. Why they gave up on Goff. Why he went from hero to zero in such a short time. And I don’t get why the Eagles managed to trade Wentz for a plus plus package, when he, arguably, was a truly “busted” QB and Goff wasn’t/isn’t, and Goff is two years younger.

    Not getting it.

    The Rams gave up a ton to get Goff in the first place, and then a ton to get rid of him. Total picks lost (plus Goff) has to be up there among all time screw-ups and lost opportunities.

    IMO, some NFL commentators seem to dismiss draft picks lost in trades, cuz they don’t talk about them as actual players you don’t get to add to your roster. Those picks could have turned into much needed offensive and defensive line help, wideouts, linebackers, safeties, etc. They weren’t just pieces of paper. Those are all lost chances to upgrade your team, in exchange for a far more narrow and limited chance to upgrade your team.

    To beat a dead horse. Not a fan of this. Not a fan.

    Goff is still Goff. They needed to work with him, build back his confidence, replace the loss of Gurley, and add a speedster who can also win jump balls. They could have done that with the picks they traded away, and better, more patient coaching, in my view.

    #128953
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    The top 11 edge-rushers in the 2021 draft class

    * https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/2021-nfl-draft-edge-rushers-jaelan-phillips-azeez-ojulari-kwity-paye/

    A story I relate often comes to us from the 2013 NFL draft, and is the perfect way to begin this article. Early on night one the Miami Dolphins traded up with the then-Oakland Raiders to select Dion Jordan, the pass rusher from Oregon. When the pick was made Mike Mayock, now the general manager for the Raiders, stated that the move told us something about the state of professional football. Paraphrasing here, Mayock stated that the most important place on the field was the pocket. Teams need players that can throw from that spot, that can protect that spot, and that can attack that spot.

    That remains true today. Think about how this draft is expected to unfold, with potentially four quarterbacks off the board with the first four picks, and then two offensive linemen shortly thereafter.

    But what about the players who can attack that spot?

    This is an intriguing EDGE class, if an incomplete one. It lacks the surefire prospect at the top, the complete player that you know can step in and produce without reservation. If you are looking for a Chase Young or Jadeveon Clowney or a Bosa Brother at the top of the board, you might be out of luck.

    That does not mean, however, this class lacks talent. Far from it, in fact. The only issue is that you might need to sacrifice a trait or take a gamble on development. If you get the evaluation and the fit right, you might just find that player to attack the spot.

    Here are the top 11 EDGE prospects in the 2021 draft class.

    1. Jaelan Phillips, Miami

    Height: 6’5″ (92nd) Weight: 260 (51st)
    40-Yard Dash: 4.56 seconds (93rd)
    Bench Press: 21 reps (39th)
    Vertical Jump: 36 inches (81st)
    Broad Jump: 125 inches (90th)
    3-Cone Drill: 7.01 seconds (80th)
    20-Yard Shuttle: 4.13 seconds (96th)

    Bio: Once upon a time Jaelan Phillips was the top recruit in all of high school football. Graded as a five-star prospect out of Redlands East Valley High School in Redlands, California by 247sports, Phillips had no shortage of interested programs knocking down his door. He was considered the top player at his position, and the top overall prospect by 247sports.com. Phillips committed to play at UCLA, and unfortunately his career with the Bruins did not match his potential. He played in seven games as a true freshman in 2017, and the following season he appeared in just four before a concussion ended his sophomore campaign.

    And his time at UCLA.

    In December of 2018, following three concussions, Phillips retired from football. Coming from a musical family (his grandfather Jon Robinson is a critically acclaimed pianist and conductor, his mother plays the cello and his father plays the trumpet) Phillips enrolled at Miami and entered the Frost School of Music. But the passion for the game was still there, so he returned to the field for the Hurricanes and this past season looked like the former top-rated recruit. He notched 45 total tackles (15.5 for a loss) and eight sacks in one season, and now stands as perhaps the top prospect at his position yet again.

    Stat to Know: Pro Football Focus charted Phillips with 36 total pressures over his final seven college games.

    Strengths: Between the lines, Phillips is a rather easy evaluation. It should be no surprise that a former five-star recruit (and once the top prospect in the country) is good at football. Phillips is solid against the run, with good awareness and vision on the edge and the ability to use his hands and upper-body strength to lock out blockers while he identifies the run design and seeks out the ball carrier. He shows good awareness and feel against traps, pulls and zone designs when the slice block from the backside is coming his way. Phillips also displays good discipline on jet sweeps and end arounds, fighting to keep contain.

    But if you are drafting an EDGE you want a pass rusher, and Phillips certainly delivers in that regard. He has a great compliment of moves off the edge, including cross-chops, swims and spins, as well as the ability to counter the tackle late in the play. He is explosive off the line, particularly when given the green light to slant or stunt to the inside. His film is replete with examples of him cutting inside and beating tackles and even guards to the spot. He even shows the ability to dip and bend, an essential trait for pass rushers.

    Phillips also has the size and quickness to kick inside on passing downs or in sub packages. There are a number of examples from 2020 of this trait, particularly early against Duke where his quick, violent swim move led to immediate pressure on a number of downs. He also kicked inside to NT on a few snaps (PFF charted him with four snaps in the A-Gap this past season) and you can envision some defensive coordinators using him as the single lineman in some 1-5-5 or 1-4-6 sub packages. Patrick Graham might love to get his hands on Phillips.

    Weaknesses: As mentioned above, the football part is the easy piece to the evaluation. His main weaknesses stem from the off-the-field portion, which is something that a chucklehead like me cannot answer with any certainty. There is a medical history with Phillips that is hard to ignore. In addition to the three concussions — which led to his medical retirement — there is also a broken wrist suffered during a scooter accident during his time at UCLA. Teams are going to want to drill down on the medical side before making him a first-round pick.

    There is one small, nitpicky thing with him that shows up on film, mostly when he is in a two-point stance. Phillips will sometimes false step, picking up his lead foot at the snap and dropping it right back down. That costs him a split-second off the line of scrimmage. It did not hurt him at Miami — and he is much more explosive in a three-point stance — but every split-second counts on Sundays.

    Conclusion: If teams are satisfied from a medical perspective, this is an easy selection. The talent and potential is there for Phillips to be a dominant player off the edge at the NFL level, and he also offers discipline and awareness against the run, making him a complete package. His ability to dominate on the inside with his quickness and array of pass-rushing moves makes him an asset on every down in the league.

    Comparison: Mike Renner of PFF went with Frank Clark as a comparison, which seems applicable to Phillips and what he offers at the next level.

    Resources: For more on what Phillips offers off the edge you can check out this piece on Phillips and the “pass rushing plan.”

    2. Azeez Ojulari, Georgia

    Height: 6’2″ (17th) Weight: 249 (26th)
    40-Yard Dash: 4.60 seconds (88th)
    Bench Press: N/A
    Vertical Jump: N/A
    Broad Jump: 124 inches (94th)
    3-Cone Drill: N/A
    20-Yard Shuttle: N/A

    Bio: ESPN graded Azeez Ojulari as a four-star recruit from Marietta High School in Marietta, Georgia, and Ojulari was coveted by a number of SEC schools including Alabama, Forida and Auburn. He chose Georgia, staying in-state to play his college ball. But due to an ACL tear suffered during his final season at Marietta, Ojulari played in just two games in 2018 as a freshman and ultimately redshirted. He returned to the field for 2019 and appeared in all of Georgia’s games, notching 33 tackles and 5.5 sacks.

    This past season his production exploded, as in just ten games Ojulari recorded 31 total tackles (including 12.5 for a loss, a career-high) and another career-best mark with 9.5 sacks.

    Stat to Know: Ojulari is a true “EDGE,” as Pro Football Focus charted him with just one snap in the A- or B-Gaps over his three-year career.

    Strengths: Speed is the name of Ojulari’s game. While some other prospects in this class have more power few — if any — can match what Ojulari offers around the corner. Ojulari has tremendous explosiveness and quickness off the edge, with an impressive first step and the ability to turn the corner and flatten to the quarterback. His hands are very impressive, has he can chop/rip/swat against most tackles and there are some reps where he just leaves the tackle in his wake.

    He is still filling out his plan as a rusher, and there are moments where you would love to see him come up with a better counter or Plan B, but you can find some good examples of him figuring this out if you look. On one play against Missouri he initially punches with his left hand to attempt a long-arm move, but when the tackle handles that he immediately dips to the inside and is able to put a big hit on the QB. Another example is from his game against Mississippi State where the left tackle does not bite on his Euro step move, so Ojulari immediately tries to counter with a long-arm move.

    But as he figures out how to effectively counter, his ability to win with speed and quickness will serve him well. That explosive first step gives him an advantage around the outside against most tackles, and also helps him when freed up to slant or stunt to the inside. His athleticism and ability to corner make him a solid prospect at the position. Another solid trait of his is his length. At Georgia’s pro day Ojulari measured in with 34.38 inch arms, placing him in the 84th percentile among EDGE prospects. That shows up when he turns to the long-arm move.

    Finally, that Mississippi State game is a fascinating study. The Bulldogs used a number of three-man fronts to try and slow down MSU’s Air Raid offense, which led to Ojulari facing a lot of double-teams.

    Weaknesses: Given his reliance on speed, power is a part of his game that needs to be filled out. His initial plan of attack on almost every play is to try and win with quickness, and while that often worked on Saturdays he’ll need a more complete package to win consistently on Sundays. There are moments when tackles got their hands on him, and the play was over before it began.

    Ojulari is also a pure EDGE right now, and is not someone you can see kicking inside on sub packages or on passing downs. He was also part of a deep rotation at Georgia at the position, and as PFF noted he never played more than 52 snaps in a game. That led to a number of plays where he had fresh legs, relatively speaking. It also led to the tremendous finish to his college career against Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl, where he put together a number of sacks in the final half of play including a safety on his final collegiate snap. There could also be questions about whether he is better suited for an off-ball, OLB role rather than as a player with his hand in the dirt.

    Conclusion: There is always room for a player who can corner, bend and get to the quarterback. Ojulari’s quickness gives him a true trump card that will work at the next level. He might not have the full array of moves under his belt, but you can see him starting to piece it all together. His length will also serve him well on Sundays in the league. He might be a pure outside-only player but his quickness and explosiveness is worth an early pick.

    Comparison: Ojulari’s size, frame and athleticism remind me a bit of Marcus Davenport, who had a stunning first-round rise and was ultimately drafted by the New Orleans Saints who traded up to do so. Ojulari is seeing a similar rise, building off his Peach Bowl performance.

    3. Kwity Paye, Michigan

    Height: 6’2″ (18th) Weight: 261 (54th)
    40-Yard Dash: 4.52 seconds (97th)
    Bench Press: 36 reps (99th)
    Vertical Jump: 35.5 inches (76th)
    Broad Jump: 118 inches (61st)
    3-Cone Drill: N/A
    20-Yard Shuttle: N/A

    Bio: Kwity Pay was born in a refugee camp following the First Liberian Civil War. He was named after his father, who died in the conflict, and his mother brought him and Kwity’s brother Komotay to Rhode Island when Kwity was just six months old. He developed a passion for football and played both running back and defensive end in high school, and was named Rhode Island’s Gatorade Player of the Year as a senior in 2016. Considered a three-star recruit he turned down offers from northeast schools such as Boston College, Rutgers and Syracuse to play for the Michigan Wolverines.

    Paye was an immediate contributor for Michigan as a true freshman, playing in nine game and recording a sack. His breakout season was as a junior in 2019, where he notched a career-high 6.5 sacks. In the COVID-shortened 2020 season Paye still managed to record a pair of sacks.

    Stat to Know: Paye made Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks” list prior to this past season, and with 36 bench reps (99th percentile) and a 4.52 40-yard dash (97th percentile) you can see why.

    Strengths: For the most part, that freakish athleticism translates to film. He is powerful off the edge or even in the interior, with hands and upper-body strength to rock defenders off the snap and control them if necessary. He can also convert speed-to-power off the edge, and has a bull rush move that can drive even the best blockers back into the pocket.

    On film Paye did some of his best work against the run, with the ability to stack/shed blockers and identify the target in the backfield. That is where those 36 reps on the bench show up, as he can lock out and control blockers while finding the ball-carrier behind them. He also shows good discipline against traps and can scrape off blockers well to get the to running back. He also works on the outside to set the edge against the run, and knows where his help is coming from in those situations.

    I also love what he did against zone read teams, as he remained assignment sound and if the play went away from him, you cannot question his effort. His film is filled with effort plays both against the run and when rushing the passer.

    He is building out his toolkit as a pass rusher, but you can see a variety of moves being developed. His bull rush is perhaps his best move — due to his power — but you can find examples of him using a push/pull, a rip/dip, a long-arm or even the occasional swim move.

    Weaknesses: There are moments when his hands are a bit slow off the line, which enabled some tackles to get into him and control him through the play. Some have questioned his ability to put together a plan, or to come up with counters, but there are some examples. Against Michigan State this past season he flashed a long-arm at the start of one play before immediately changing into a rip/dip move based on how the tackle set against him. There is another example of him flashing a cross-chop and again turning to the rip/dip move as a counter attack. Still, there is room for growth here.

    Despite his strength and ability to kick inside, there were moments when he got swallowed up by interior offensive lines. Keeping him on the edge might be a better course of action at the next level.

    Conclusion: Ultimately, Paye might offer a better floor than the two prospects above him, and teams might find that enticing at the next level. He does not have the medical concerns that you find with Jaelan Phillips, and he is already built for the NFL game unlike Azeez Ojulari who still needs to add some strength and power to his arsenal. He has played on the interior so he offers some versatility, and while I do think he is better off the edge teams are going to value that from him.

    Comparison: Jordan Reid of The Draft Network sees some Brandon Graham in Paye’s game and profile, and that does make sense. Paye, however, goes with a different comparison and tries to model his game after Yannick Ngakoue.

    4. Joseph Ossai, Texas

    Height: 6’3 5/8″ (58th) Weight: 256 (44th)
    40-Yard Dash: 4.65 seconds (80th)
    Bench Press: 19 reps (21st)
    Vertical Jump: 41.5 inches (99th)
    Broad Jump: 131.5 inches (99th)
    3-Cone Drill: N/A
    20-Yard Shuttle: N/A

    Bio: Joseph Ossai was born in Nigeria, and moved to Texas with his family when he was ten years old. He was graded as a four-star recruit by 247sports.com, choosing to play for the University of Texas over schools like Notre Dame, Oregon and Texas A&M. He was a contributor immediately on campus, playing in every game as a true freshman and recording a sack and a forced fumble. As a sophomore in 2019 he played in 13 games, tallying 90 total tackles (13.5 for a loss) and five sacks. He also added a pair of interceptions. He was named the MVP of the 2019 Alamo Bowl after his three-sack performance. In the nine games of his junior season he added another 5.5 sacks, including three in a win over Oklahoma State.

    Stat to Know: Pro Football Focus charted him with three-plus pressures in seven of Texas’ nine games this season.

    Strengths: At the outset you should understand that I might be higher on Ossai than consensus. PFF graded him as a third-round prospect, and Jon Ledyard — whose opinion I value particularly when it comes to EDGE players — has him as the sixth-best EDGE in the class. This is part of what he wrote: “Ossai might be the ultimate boom-or-bust edge prospect in this class, so like a true coward I’ve planted my flag right between the polarizing grades on him.”

    I am going to plant that flag, and here is why. I think Ossai is just scratching the surface of what he can be at the next level, and you cannot match his athleticism and his effort. He is explosive off the line — and can improve in this area as we will discuss — and is adept at cornering of the edge. He is building out a complete set of pass rushing moves, but you can see examples of rip/dips, push/pulls, swim moves and even a bull rush or two. His first step is impressive, particularly when he can cut inside off the snap.

    You also will not outwork him. His motor runs hot on every play from snap to whistle, and whether double- or even triple-teamed, he is going to fight to the football. Against the run he will stack and shed and use his hands to keep fighting while getting his eyes on the football.

    Ossai started in more of an off-ball role before transitioning to a defensive end this past season, but Texas still found times to drop him into coverage in both zone and man coverage schemes. That versatility is going to be a plus for him as teams could use him in a few different roles

    Weaknesses: Ossai is still learning it seems, given the position switch this past season, and that has led to some snap hesitation on plays. This is something that Benjamin Solak has explored, and I have done work on as well. Here is what Solak put together:

    If he cleans this up, you are talking about a potential home run pick. The problem? The phenomenon of “coach-it-up-itis,” which is a term I’ve come up with to outline the belief that everything can get fixed with coaching. Is it possible? Sure. Is it a safe bet? Maybe not.

    In addition to the above, Ossai could use his hands better, particularly when facing cut block attempts. I would love to see him flare out the hands and drive would-be blockers to the turf to keep his legs and ankles clear.

    Conclusion: Ultimately, Ossai is one of my favorite prospects in the draft because you can see the potential. Maybe the allure of what he can be, and the phenomenon of “coach-it-up-itis,” is clouding my judgement. But I look at what he is now, where he is athletically, and think with just a bit of refinement to his approach you are talking about a double-digit sack player in the NFL. Can it happen? Maybe, maybe not. But sometimes in the draft you have to roll the dice and this is a bet I’m willing to make.

    Comparison: In a recent mock draft I had the Baltimore Ravens drafting him as a potential Matthew Judon replacement, and there is a reason…

    Resources: After Ossai’s incredible pro day I put together this piece on him, that dives into that snap hesitation and his upside.

    5. Jayson Oweh, Penn State

    Height: 6’5 7/8″ (78th) Weight: 257 (46th)
    40-Yard Dash: 4.39 seconds (100th)
    Bench Press: 21 reps (39th)
    Vertical Jump: 40 inches (96th)
    Broad Jump: 134 inches (100th)
    3-Cone Drill: 6.84 seconds (96th)
    20-Yard Shuttle: 4.15 seconds (95th)

    Bio: Jayson Oweh played his high school football at Blair Academy in Blairstown, New Jersey. Considered a four-star recruit by ESPN, who also graded him as the second-best player in the state and 94th overall, Oweh had offers from a number of Big Ten schools including Ohio State and Michigan. He went to Penn State and was a rotational player as a true freshman, notching a pair of sacks. That continued in 2019, where he made one start and added five sacks to his resume.

    The production was not there in 2020, as Oweh was held without a sack for the first time in his career. As we will see, that does not tell the whole story…

    Stat to Know: While Joseph Ossai was the clubhouse leader for “best pro day from an EDGE prospect” Oweh took that — unofficial — title from him after his performance a few weeks ago. Both his broad jump and 40-yard dash placed him in the 100th percentile among players at his position. He was named to Bruce Feldman’s “freaks” list two seasons in a row for a good reason.

    Strengths: Athleticism is the trait that simply jumps off the film. Some might not know this about me but for a few seasons I covered the Minnesota Golden Gophers for the Rivals network. Part of my job was to write about the upcoming opponent in a “Scouting Notebook” series, where I would study the upcoming offense and defense and break down each player the Golden Gophers would face.

    Here is what I wrote about Oweh two years ago when discussing their pass rush: “The only one who really stands out is Oweh. He had a very good pass rush rep late in the game against Michigan State with impressive speed off the edge. He runs the arc and then rips to the inside to get a sack/fumble.”

    That remains true to this day. His athleticism and speed off the edge is great, almost elite. But he also has some power to his game, and can pack a punch with his hands. On one play against Ohio State this past season he drove the guard back in to the lap of the quarterback, so he is not just a finesse/speed player. Against the run he shows good vision and does a good job of stacking and shedding blockers. He is also disciplined against zone read designs.

    He can be a weapon on stunts to the inside. When Penn State tasked him with slicing inside he was often able to get immediate pressure on the opposing passer. Oweh can also chase down plays from behind due to his impressive speed and the effort he puts into each snap.

    Weaknesses: The first question is the production element. How could a player with these tools and traits not record a single sack? Some if it was scheme, as he did see his share of double-teams and chips from tight ends. But there were also moments when the pressure did not result in a sack, due to elusive quarterbacks. For those who believe pressure is production, however, you can make the case that despite the lack of sacks Oweh’s 2020 season was still production.

    Oweh also relies on his athleticism more as a pass rusher, rather than technique. I did not see a lot of evidence that he can string together moves, counter blocks and pass sets, and win in the technical game.

    Conclusion: With athleticism like this, however, who cares about the technical side? Of course that is a rather glib statement but when you see Oweh and what he can do athletically, you can talk yourself into draft him early and molding him into a more complete player. You can refine pass rushing technique over time, you cannot teach his athleticism and explosiveness off the edge.

    Comparison: PFF’s Mike Renner went with Montez Sweat, which might be a perfect comp.

    6. Quincy Roche, Miami

    Height: 6’3″ (33rd) Weight: 243 (13th)
    40-Yard Dash: 4.68 seconds (72nd)
    Bench Press: 23 reps (56th)
    Vertical Jump: 32.5 inches (41st)
    Broad Jump: N/A
    3-Cone Drill: N/A
    20-Yard Shuttle: N/A

    Bio: Hailing from Owings Mills, Maryland, Quincy Roche was a standout defensive end and tight end at New Town High School. A three-star recruit according to 247sports.com, he entertained offers from smaller schools such as Appalachian State and Toledo before enrolling at Temple. Roche was an impact player for the Owls from the day he set foot on campus, notching seven sacks as a true freshman. His best season by far was back in 2019, when he tallied 13 sacks and was named the American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year as well as a First-Team All-AAC player. He transferred to Miami for his final year of eligibility as a graduate, and he added another 45 tackles and 4.5 sacks to his resume, this time as an ACC player.

    Stat to Know: According to Pro Football Focus Roche’s 104 pressures the past two seasons made him the most productive pass rusher in all of college football.

    Strengths: Roche is a technically-advanced pass rusher that wins with effort, technique and experience. Given the number of games he has played and the different players he has seen, Roche is able to read and react to almost anything a tackle can throw at him. He can put together a variety of pass rushing moves, including cross-chops, swims, rips, and spins, and he can counter most pass blockers with an efficient plan of attack. Early against Duke this past season you saw that on a play where he initially tried to rip and dip around the edge, but hit the tackle with a counter/spin late in the down for a sack. His hands in that game against Duke were extremely impressive, particularly on cross-chop moves where he was leaving the Duke tackles in his wake.

    He is also adept at exploiting over-sets and mistakes by tackles. Against Pittsburgh this past season the tackle set too far to the outside exposing the inside gap, and Roche immediately identified that and attacked inside to generate pressure on the QB. In that game he also showed a bit of a Euro step on one snap, threatening the outside shoulder of the tackle and then cutting inside to force the QB off the spot. The Clemson game also provided some examples of Roche ironing out a long-arm move, adding one more element to his arsenal.

    Weaknesses: Roche is more technique than power or athleticism, and more experienced tackles might be better suited to handle what he attacks with off the edge. You even saw some of that this season in games against Virginia Tech and Clemson, when he was working against experienced and/or talented tackles who could handle his array of moves or simply beat him with power and/or athleticism. Speaking of which, athletically Roche does not compare well to some of the other prospects in this class, and he might be more of a finished product than players like Jayson Oweh or Joseph Ossai.

    Conclusion: Still, it is hard to argue with the production. Dating back to high school — Roche set a school record his senior year with 19 sacks — Roche has found ways to get to the quarterback. He might not duplicate those kinds of numbers in the NFL, but players with a knack for getting to the QB are still a valued part of a roster. He might not have the ceiling of other players on the draft, but the floor is rather solid.

    Comparison: I see a little of Trey Flowers in his game, a player who might rely on technique and need a bit of scheme help to produce at the next level.

    7. Rashad Weaver, Pittsburgh

    Height: 6’4″ (68th) Weight: 259 (49th)
    40-Yard Dash: 4.83 seconds (33rd)
    Bench Press: 20 reps (31st)
    Vertical Jump: 33 inches (41st)
    Broad Jump: 114 inches (36th)
    3-Cone Drill: 6.98 seconds (84th)
    20-Yard Shuttle: 4.30 seconds (74th)

    Bio: 247sports.com graded Rashad Weaver as just a two-star prospect coming out of Cooper City High School in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Weaver played both basketball and football at Cooper City, and was a tight end and defensive end in the fall and a center on the hardwood. He originally committed to Michigan, but when he was informed that he would have to be a preferred walk-on, he switched his commitment to Pittsburgh. Weaver tallied three sacks as a redshirt freshman in 2017, and then 6.5 sacks as a sophomore in 2018. He was set for a breakout year as a junior in 2019 but tore his ACL prior to the season, missing the entire year. He came back for the 2020 campaign and tallied a career-high 7.5 sacks in just nine games.

    Stat to Know: The Panthers used him as a pure EDGE, as he saw just 14 snaps over the tackle — and nothing on the inside — this past season according to Pro Football Focus.

    Strengths: Weaver has length and he knows how to use it. He has great technique and hand usage, and his length makes his reliance on a long-arm move a natural fit. But he offers more than just that one move, as you can find examples of him winning with a swim move, a cross-chop, a rip/dip, and he can also bend around the arc to get to the quarterback. When it comes to countering tackles, his preferred method of attack is to counter-spin late in the down and he is effective when turning to that move.

    I enjoyed seeing Weaver work against the run, as he shows power at the point of attack and great hand technique. Tackles and other blocker who try and cut him are often found on the business ends of his hands, as he drives them face-down into the turf and evades the attempt. He has great awareness overall — against the run and the pass — and knows how to relate down when he sees the tackle down block, and he can initiate contact against traps and slice blocks.

    Recognition and awareness might be two of his strengths, as he can diagnose plays well and will sink under screens or designed throws to the flat. He also uses his length to disrupt passing lanes and force the QB to either reset or adjust his arm angle.

    Weaknesses: Weaver is another “floor” prospect, as there might not be a ton of room for growth. He wins with power, length and technique, and does that part of the job well. But the athletic profile does not offer a ton of hope for his upside. He tested well at his pro day, which might offer some potential, but his career arc might best be summed up in one play against Syracuse, where he uses fantastic technique to beat the tackler, but misses on the sack because he cannot change direction quickly enough. There was also an example of that against Clemson and Trevor Lawrence where he won with technique, but ended up falling on his back trying to chase the QB as he spun away from him. Maybe this is a case where the good testing numbers on his agility drills (4.30 short shuttle, 6.98 three-cone) overshadow moments like that on the field.

    Conclusion: NFL decision makers love safe floors, and that is what Weaver offers. That coupled with his awareness, recognition, work against the run and his discipline make him a safe option. His age and lack of burst might not provide an enticing ceiling, but you can see a path to him unlocking some effort sacks at the next level.

    Comparison: I can see a little bit of Deatrich Wise Jr. to Weaver’s game.

    8. Payton Turner, Houston

    Height: N/A Weight: N/A
    40-Yard Dash: N/A
    Bench Press: N/A
    Vertical Jump: N/A
    Broad Jump: N/A
    3-Cone Drill: N/A
    20-Yard Shuttle: N/A

    (Pro day scheduled for April 9).

    Bio: 247sports.com graded Payton Turner as a two-star prospect, and the 359-ranked player in the state of Texas alone. Coming out of Westside High School in Houston, Texas he entertained interest from Kansas, Purdue, Texas and Michigan but his only offer came from the Cougars, so Turner enrolled at Houston. Part of this might have been due to a knee injury his senior year which caused him to miss the bulk of his final prep season.

    Turner played immediately for the Cougars as a true freshman, tallying 14 tackles and an interception. He started the first 11 games of his sophomore year and while his season ended early due to a foot injury, he recorded 42 total tackles, including 3.5 for a loss. His final two years on campus saw him truly start to produce off the edge, as he recorded 3.5 sacks as a junior and five as a senior, in just five games due to the COVID-shortened year. Turner earned an invitation to this year’s Senior Bowl for his efforts.

    Stat to Know: Turner’s productivity increased every season. In addition to the big jump in sacks Turner notched a whopping 10.5 tackles for a loss in 2020, again in just five games. That beat his previous mark of 7.5 set in 2019 over a 12-game season.

    Strengths: There are often prospects that you come to late in the process, and wish you had spent time on earlier in the cycle. Payton Turner is one such player for me. But I am glad I took the time to study his tape. It is hard to find a more contrasting set of game than watching a pass rusher against BYU and then Navy, but watching those two contests gives you a flavor of what he can be against the run and when rushing the passer. Turner is powerful and violent off the snap, and shows power at the point of attack when working against the run. He does not quit until the whistle, and his game against Navy flashed a number of effort plays where he was chasing down runs from behind. He also displayed impressive change-of-direction skills on one counter option, when he spun back to mirror the QB and dragged him down for a tackle behind the line.

    Rushing the passer is what moves the needle for EDGE defenders, and Turner checks that box as well. He has a bevy of moves at his disposal, including rip/dip moves, an impressive cross-chop that he will pair with either a rip or a swim after if necessary, a push/pull move and he will even just rely on a bull rush if necessary. On one play against BYU’s right tackle he used that bull rush to just walk him back into Zach Wilson’s lap, influencing the QB’s arm angle.

    Turner also has quick hands, and when combined with his experience and array of moves he is a pass rusher with a clear plan. It is rare to see him use the same move on two consecutive snaps, and he is ready to counter the tackle should his initial move be stymied. He will use a spin or a late rip as a preferred method of countering, but really you can see him turn to a different Plan B from snap-to-snap. There are even some flashes of bend and cornering ability from him, which is also quite intriguing. Finally, given his experience if a tackle makes a mistake, he will make you pay.

    Turner is not the most athletic or bursty defender, but the size, frame and length when coupled with his experience and technique makes for a nice package.

    Weaknesses: Turner plays extremely high with his pads, and will need to either adjust his pad level or accept the fact that he will lose some reps when tackles get into his exposed chest. He is not the most explosive player off the edge, and he wins with effort, technique and experience. He also took advantage of the competition around him, and has just the two (or one-and-a-half) years of good production. He had success against BYU’s right tackle and at times against Brady Christensen, their left tackle who is going to get drafted this cycle, but the level of competition is an open question. His Senior Bowl week, however, should alleviate some of those fears.

    Then there is an injury history, both with the high school injury and the lower body injury that ended his sophomore season early.

    Conclusion: Still, his tool-kit as a rusher coupled with his ability to kick inside makes him an extremely enticing option, even early on Day Two of the draft. I love what he offers from a technical standpoint, and also what he demonstrates in terms of a plan of attack. My only regret is that I did not start watching him sooner.

    Comparison: I am getting an Adalius Thomas vibe from him, a player who when left to pressure the quarterback thrived, but when asked to do more in terms of coverage and playing in space struggled.

    9. Joe Tryon, Washington

    Height: 6’5″ (87th) Weight: 259 (49th)
    40-Yard Dash: 4.64 seconds (81st)
    Bench Press: 22 reps (47th)
    Vertical Jump: 35 inches (72nd)
    Broad Jump: 118 inches (61st)
    3-Cone Drill: 7.18 seconds (55th)
    20-Yard Shuttle: 4.36 seconds (60th)

    Bio: Joe Tryon was graded as a three-star recruit by ESPN’s scouting services, after playing at Hazen High School in Renton, Washington. He received a handful of offers from schools in the Pacific Northwest including Washington State, Oregon and Eastern Washington, and originally chose Washington State, but decided to flip his commitment and play for the in-state Huskies. He redshirted his freshman year but in 2018 he appeared in 12 games, notching 20 tackles and a sack. Tryon enjoyed a bit of a breakout in 2019, as he tallied eight sacks and was named a Second-Team All-Pac-12 player. That would be the end of his college career, as he opted-out for 2020 due to COVID-19.

    Stat to Know: Pro Football Focus charted him with 29 pressures in his final seven games during the 2019 season, which is a heck of a way to end your career.

    Strengths: There is a phrase in life: “Do one thing and do it well.” That could apply to Tryon and his mode of attack as a pass rusher, as he wins primarily with a speed-to-power bull rush off the edge. Forget evading you, he wants to run through you. It works on occasion, but what gives me more hope about his NFL career is what you are seeing him use to complement that move. You are seeing examples of him using cross-chops and even the occasional rip/dip move to add to the weapons in his bag.

    Tryon is another defender who is acutely aware of what could be coming his way, in terms of traps or slice blocks. He takes those on with violence, driving into the blocker and turning running plays back to the inside. He does not take a single snap off, and finishes every play to the whistle.

    Something I noticed with him, particularly in his game against Oregon in 2019, is how well he handled playing in space. He showed good awareness and feel for handling underneath zone coverages, passing off receivers, and making tackles in the open field. Could there be an unlocked OLB type waiting to be discovered at the next level? The idea intrigues me…

    Weaknesses: One of the biggest questions facing Tryon is the production angle. With some of the other players in this class with thin resumes, such as Gregory Rousseau, you have one year of elite production or execution to hang your hat on. Here, you have a year with eight sacks, many of which came as effort plays rather than due to his technique. Still, he is explosive on the outside and might have the versatility to play both on the inside and in space as just discussed. Again, you cannot teach size and frame, and Tryon checks those boxes. A creative defensive coordinator could find ways to involve him all over the defensive front and just unleash him on the opposing offensive line from a variety of alignments and angles. That works too in the NFL, last I checked.

    Conclusion: Teams will talk themselves into what Tryon could be, and if they do that in conjunction with the potential versatility he offers, that might be a smart bet. I think there is schematic versatility in that Tryon could be an off-ball OLB in a 3-4 base scheme with the potential to drop down as a defensive end in even fronts. You could also kick him to the inside on some sub packages. There are things to play with here, and that will be enticing on the second day of the draft.

    Comparison: Tryon could be a “boom/bust” type of player, and you can see a variety of outcomes for him. On the high end of that range you could be getting T.J. Watt-lite, a player who thrives in a role as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 base scheme who can primarily rush the passer but also handle coverage responsibilities. But how often are “high ends” realized? On the low end of the range you might get Daeshon Hall. Somewhere in the middle? Perhaps Dawuane Smoot, who has carved out a solid little role with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

    10. Gregory Rousseau, Miami

    Height: 6’7″ (98th) Weight: 266 (67th)
    40-Yard Dash: 4.69 seconds (71st)
    Bench Press: 21 reps (39th)
    Vertical Jump: 30 inches (14th)
    Broad Jump: 115 inches (42nd)
    3-Cone Drill: 7.50 seconds (16th)
    20-Yard Shuttle: 4.45 seconds (36th)

    Bio: Gregory Rousseau did it all for Champagnat Catholic School in Hialeah, Florida. He was a defensive end, safety and wide receiver for his high school football team, and helped Champagnat Catholic to its second state title in school history. As a senior he tallied 80 tackles and ten sacks, including three sacks in the state championship game. He also earned Second-Team All-State honors as a wide receiver, catching nine touchdowns in 2016. He enrolled at Miami and after playing in a few games as a true freshman, an ankle injury ended is season and he took a medical redshirt. He came back as a redshirt freshman in 2019 and exploded on the national stage with 15.5 sacks, earning ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. He was also named a First-Team All-ACC player as well as a Second-Team All-American.

    Rousseau opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19.

    Stat to Know: Rousseau has just 546 career college snaps. That…requires a lot of projection.

    Strengths: Rousseau immediately checks the size, length and frame boxes. His length pops on film against the run and as a pass rusher, as he has developed a great long-arm move that shows up off the edge. He also has the ability to lock out blockers against the run, and loves to set the edge against run plays. Rousseau has long strides off the edge, which gets him into most tackles quickly in the down despite a lack of pure explosiveness. For a player of his size he has impressive footwork, and that shows up when tackles try to cut him, as he can quickly step back with ease and rely on his feet, rather than his hands, to evade cuts.

    Even with his frame, Rousseau has the ability to dip and bend around the arc with ease. He is disciplined against option plays and rarely bites on fakes. His power shows up on film, particularly when he uses that long-arm technique but also when he tries to overpower tackles with a bull rush attempt.

    Miami also kicked him inside — he saw 74 A-Gap snaps according to PFF charting — and he stood out in those opportunities. He seemed to generate immediate pressure on those occasions and perhaps even showed a bit more burst and explosiveness than he did on the outside.

    Weaknesses: I mentioned the 546 snaps, right? Because that is not an extensive body of work and there is a lot of projection that goes into what he could be at the next level. Beyond that, Rousseau is relatively new to being a pass rusher, having spent a lot of his prep days playing in the secondary and as a receiver. You can see a lot of false steps from him off the line, mostly when in a two-point stance, and you would like to see more from him in terms of a pass rushing plan and counter moves. If you are looking for a technically-sound option in this class, Rousseau might not be your top choice. He also relies mightily on a Euro-step move to the inside and he either wins with that…or doesn’t. Basham also has an upright playing style and high pad level, which allows some tackles to get into his frame and win the rep. Finally there are now questions about his athleticism, given his pro day performance.

    Conclusion: Still, for a team looking for a situational pass rusher with the chops to kick inside while they hope to fill in the rest of the blanks, Rousseau could be an enticing option. He might need a lot of development and coaching, but you cannot teach his size and frame. I know I know, the words of the wise Emory Hunt ring in my mind: “Size is not a skill.” Sometimes, however, it is enchanting…

    Comparison: Coming up with a comparison for Rousseau is tough, as most raw prospects rely more on athleticism than frame. This writeup of him uses Arik Armstead as a comparison which is the best I’ve found.

    11. Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forest

    Height: 6’3″ (46th) Weight: 274 (81st)
    40-Yard Dash: 4.64 seconds (81st)
    Bench Press: 20 reps (30th)
    Vertical Jump: 34 inches (61st)
    Broad Jump: 122 inches (82nd)
    3-Cone Drill: 7.13 seconds (60th)
    20-Yard Shuttle: 4.25 seconds (84th)

    Bio: A standout on the gridiron and the hardwood for Northside High School in Roanoke, Virginia, Carlos “Boogie” Basham Jr. turned down offers from Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to enroll at Wake Forest. Basham redshirted his first year on campus but was a contributor the rest of his career for the Demon Deacons. He was named a First-Team All-ACC player as a junior in 2019 when he recorded 57 total tackles (18 for a loss) and ten sacks. He returned for one final season and appeared in six games, notching five sacks. Basham earned an invitation to the Senior Bowl and was one of the better performers down in Mobile.

    Stat to Know: Pro Football Focus charted Basham with just 35 B-Gap snaps this past season but operating inside could be critical to his future success.

    Strengths: Basham favors winning to the inside, which has its benefits and its curses. Smarter tackles who did their homework were patient on his initial attempt to threaten the outside and simply would ride down on him when he eventually tried to slice inside. But Wake Forest catered to that, using him on a lot of stunts and twists to free him up to the inside, and you would see his motor and his ability to swim to the inside. That might be his best move as a pass rusher, a swim move, which he uses often and is even more effective at implementing when kicked to the inside. Against Clemson this season he saw a few snaps as a three-technique and you saw that inside swim move work to pressure Trevor Lawrence.

    Basham is also an experience defender with great awareness, particularly against the run when he stays disciplined against zone read designs and has great feel for trap blocks and slice blocks on inside zone plays. He can either long-arm those blockers and keep his eyes on the play or initiate contact with them. He will fight to set the edge on runs to his side, and if you run away from him the motor never stops. Basham is more than able to chase plays down from the backside. I do not think you can question his competitive toughness. When you see him fighting against and through double-teams down 31-3 to Clemson, you check that box of the scouting report and move on.

    Weaknesses: I did not see a full array of pass-rushing moves, which is somewhat concerning given his experience. He flashed a few cross-chops and a spin move at times, but by far he wants to win to the inside either by design or with a swim move. He also seems to lack a plan off the edge, mostly in terms of how to counter what he sees from the tackle or when the tackle handles his initial move. It seems his favored approach is to simply outwork the opponent or try and fight to the inside.

    Conclusion: I believe Basham’s key to contributing immediately in the NFL is as a situational pass rusher on the interior. That is, at least to me, when he seemed to be at his best. Working against guards and centers with that swim move that he loves so much. He can offer interior pressure via that means while filling out the rest of his toolkit as a pass rusher off the edge.

    Comparison: Jon Ledyard compared him in a sense to Curtis Weaver, the Boise State product who was trying to figure things out last season from an execution and technical standpoint, and that comparison carries some weight.

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    from NFL pro day takeaways for the 2021 NFL draft: A coveted QB class, opt-out riddles, which prospects are rising

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/story/_/id/31182317/nfl-pro-day-takeaways-2021-nfl-draft-coveted-qb-class-opt-riddles-which-prospects-rising

    No scouting combine. No in-person visits from prospects. No business as usual for those involved in the 2021 NFL draft.

    This is the second consecutive draft impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and teams have had little face-to-face time, scarce medical information, fewer games to review and just as many questions to answer as usual. In the months leading up to the draft, which begins April 29, there have been pro days and … a whole lot of hoping for the best with virtual meetings with prospects.

    With the bulk of those on-campus workouts now wrapped up, we scoured the results and found takeaways from the athletic testing numbers, quarterback throwing sessions, surprises and moments that wowed social media. Here’s everything you need to know from the 2021 pro days:

    How less medical information has changed the process

    The biggest loss for every team this year is what they covet most from the combine: the results of prospects’ medical exams. In most years, 330-plus players would receive one of the most extensive medical exams of their lives at the combine as medical staffs from each team have access to their medical records and can examine each in person.

    The prospects who are flagged are sent for more tests before they leave the combine. And those with the biggest injury questions are brought back to Indianapolis in the weeks before the draft for another exam.

    As a result, teams could have far less information on roughly 55% of the prospects who would have been invited to the combine in previous years. Some of the middle- to late-round players with injury questions who don’t make that top 150 could be impacted.

    Even a high-profile prospect such as Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley, who recently had surgery on his back — an outpatient microdiscectomy, according to several teams — could see his draft status differ from projections if teams don’t find a comfort level with his recovery.

    Vanderbilt’s Dayo Odeyingbo, an intriguing, versatile pass-rusher who suffered a torn Achilles in January, could be impacted as well, with the worst-case scenario a fall into Day 3 for an injury he would have had examined multiple times in previous years.

    Another example is Duke cornerback Mark Gilbert, whose last full season on the field was 2017, when he led the ACC in passes defensed. He missed most of 2018 and all of 2019 due to hip surgery and then played in just two games last season (114 snaps in all) before he had right foot surgery. There are more wild cards than usual this year.

    Why the QB class is so coveted this year

    The quarterback math has always been difficult to wrestle with through the years.

    Most personnel executives will only, begrudgingly, concede during a season there might five or six “great” quarterbacks in the league at that particular moment. And then those same personnel executives act like there are that many future great quarterbacks in every draft.

    That’s in a normal year. The frenzy is in overdrive this year, as quarterbacks could be selected with each of the first four picks for the first time in history. One general manager contacted in recent weeks had predicted “the quarterback pro days will be more out there than usual.” Meaning any and all reactions to one throw here, one throw there, against air, may appear to have more meaning after several trips through the social media cycle than usual. It’s all aligned for history to be made.

    Six quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the 1983 draft, with the first (John Elway), the third (Jim Kelly) and the last (Dan Marino) picks fitted for gold jackets when their careers were over. The last time quarterbacks went 1-2-3 in the draft? It was 1999, when Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith were picked.

    In 2018, four quarterbacks — Baker Mayfield (No. 1), Sam Darnold (No. 3), Josh Allen (No. 7) and Josh Rosen (No. 10) — were selected among the top 10 for the first time in seven decades. And last year, three went in the top 10: Joe Burrow (No. 1), Tua Tagovailoa (No. 4) and Justin Herbert (No. 5).

    One of the most glaring indicators that the struggle continues to be real at the top of the board is that quarterbacks went 1-2 in both 2015 and 2016 (Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota in ’15, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz in ’16) and none of the four is still with his original team.

    With so much uncertainty this year, there’s a feeling in the league that the teams at the top of the board believe the time, environment and the prospects available create the perfect storm to roll the dice on a quarterback. So much so that if you averaged many of the actual grades on the top quarterbacks in this draft, they might fall something like this:

    Quarterbacks have always been selected well above their actual grades because, well, they’re quarterbacks. There is also the residual impact of the Bills trading up to No. 7 to select Allen in 2018, the year after the Chiefs had moved to No. 10 to select Patrick Mahomes. Those two teams made big trades and got their guys, and every other team has been watching closely.

    I reached out to roughly two dozen scouts and personnel executives in recent weeks for an unscientific poll to try to get a snapshot of how Round 1 will really go. These are the results, with quarterbacks listed in no specific order within each tier (there were a handful of those surveyed who said they would flip Lance and Jones, but agreed with the rest):

    So with only a few weeks to go until the draft begins, expect quarterbacks to remain the biggest talking point.

    Opt-out riddles: Another wrinkle in a strange year

    The prospects who opted out of the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic have teams relying on methods they’ve used in the past for prospects who missed the season before they entered the draft. Rob Gronkowski, who did not play his final season at Arizona due to a back injury, was a tidy 270-pound Super Bowl reminder that body of work is important in this process. He was the No. 42 overall pick in 2010.

    Evaluators have tried to make the best of what they saw at the Senior Bowl in January and the pro days of some of the opt-out players. Stanford’s Paulson Adebo, for example, is still a tough call for some as the two-time All-Pac 12 pick had an injury end his 2019 season nine starts in and he opted out in 2020.

    Overall, there will be some fluctuations between how the opt-out season impacts a variety of prospects, with each team having its own criteria for how those players are graded.

    Prospects who wowed at pro days

    Pro days are just one piece of the puzzle, and when scouts criticize the media for their evaluations of prospects, they will often say too much emphasis was placed on a pro day or combine workout and that one play made in a noncompetitive situation should not get as much love as it does.

    Here are a few of the non-quarterbacks who made the most of the showcase in recent weeks:

    Many people in the league came away from Northwestern’s pro day raving about how offensive tackle Rashawn Slater looked after missing a season. They got the confirmation they needed to make him a top-15 pick.

    Wisconsin-Whitewater lineman Quinn Meinerz didn’t get to play a game in 2020 because his team’s season was canceled. But he made the most of his Senior Bowl week, especially in the one-on-ones, and he followed that up with a top-shelf pro day on March 9, including a reliably timed sub-4.9 40-yard dash at 320 pounds and top times in shuttle drills.

    The game video showed Oklahoma center Creed Humphrey didn’t surrender a sack in 2020, and his pro day was stellar for his position, including shuttle drill times similar to those for a skill position player.

    Penn State edge rusher Jayson Oweh had a pro day one scout called “high-end ridiculous” as the 6-foot-5, 257-pounder had double-take numbers such as a 39½-inch vertical and a 40 time in the 4.3s. He is one of the biggest pro day/game tape question marks of this class because he finished last season without a sack.

    BYU wide receiver Micah Simon, a former prep quarterback, went undrafted in 2020 after COVID-19 forced his pro day to be canceled. He caught passes from Zach Wilson at BYU’s pro day this year and dropped a 4.3 40 on those in attendance. He was signed by the Panthers last week.

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Rating Every NFL Coach’s Chances to Survive the 2021 Season
    Our Coaching Survival Ratings are based on play-calling skills, coaching cachet, postseason success, intangibles and more.

    https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/03/26/nfl-coaches-survival-rating-2021-season

    …Coaching Survival Rating could combine what they’ve done in the past, their biggest strengths and their weaknesses, which is a better methodology than simply ranking them, no? A ranking could, with a few exceptions, be a descending list of last year’s standings. CSR factors in their ability to call plays in their area of strength, their cachet as a manager, their Super Bowl trips and wins, and how respected and needed they are within the context of their environment. For example, there may be two coaches with the exact same record last year but wildly different CSRs because one is newly hired, one was a big hire, one has a longer contract, one is closely tied in with ownership, etc.

    Basically, what is their ability on a scale of one to 10 to survive a really bad season, and why?

    One housekeeping note: We have omitted all of 2021’s new coaches, as they’ll all be working from a theoretically clean slate except for David Culley in Houston, who has a Sisyphean journey ahead of him.

    TIER 1
    Bill Belichick, Patriots
    CSR: 10.0

    Greatest head coach in modern NFL history
    Defensive schematic genius with black ops military ties
    Eight Super Bowl rings
    If the Patriots went 0–16 next year, insisting on fielding a team of unpadded folk singers instead of football players, his motives would not (and should not) be questioned. Belichick is as untouchable in the NFL as untouchable gets.

    Andy Reid, Chiefs
    CSR: 9.8

    Riding the wave of cutting-edge NFL offenses
    Has the ear of the NFL’s most promising young talent
    Affable, honest lover of meats in a great food city
    It would be hard to imagine the NFL or the Chiefs without Reid. So many coaches eventually go stale, but the beautiful thing about Reid is his commitment to learning new ideas. That, and a front office that shares his desire to layer the offense with more playmakers than a defense can handle. Reid’s arrival in Kansas City signaled one of the most significant culture changes in modern NFL history. With consecutive Super Bowl appearances under his belt, he is as close to being an institution in his city as any coach not named Bill Belichick.

    Sean Payton, Saints
    CSR: 9.6

    Fields consistently good-to-great teams
    Super Bowl title
    Expert troll
    Payton’s choice to coach the Saints at a time when the city and fan base was reeling will never be forgotten. Like Reid, he is on the cutting edge of NFL offensive thinking and has the cachet to get the roster he wants year in and year out, salary cap be damned. Payton could come out and denounce gumbo, jazz music and drinking in public and still be a beloved figure in his adopted home city.

    Mike Tomlin, Steelers
    CSR: 9.6

    Two Super Bowl appearances, one victory
    Has never had a losing season in the NFL
    Rolodex of great sayings
    Tomlin will forever be underappreciated by Steeler Nation despite doing more than his fair share living up to Bill Cowher’s legacy. Tomlin’s worst year came in 2019 when the club went 8–8 with a combination of Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at quarterback. Last year’s team ran out of steam at the tail end of the season, though with a quarterback pushing 40 and an offensive line coming to terms with its own age, there were few other scenarios more inevitable.

    Pete Carroll, Seahawks
    CSR: 9.1

    Two Super Bowl appearances, one victory
    Creator of generation-defining defensive scheme
    Endless fount of positivity
    Seattle’s power structure is unique, and Carroll’s standing reflects his status as a personnel lead. His recent combativeness with Russell Wilson is interesting in that both sides seem to be putting a bit of their legacy on the line to get what they want. Will Carroll and his desire for a more measured and conservative offense win out? Will Wilson’s incredible talent win out? Carroll also has a pair of championships at USC to boost his résumé.

    John Harbaugh, Ravens
    CSR: 9.0

    Super Bowl title
    Employs one of the most creative offenses and defenses in the NFL while also staffing one of the league’s most robust and powerful analytics outfits
    Only current NFL head coach named John to spell his name with an ‘H’ in it
    Harbaugh’s transformation during the Lamar Jackson era cemented his staying power in Baltimore, something the Ravens may have realized concretely back in late 2018, when it seemed like Harbaugh would take his talents elsewhere. The line of teams waiting at his doorstep was probably an indicator of how he’s thought of throughout the league.

    Bruce Arians, Buccaneers
    CSR: 9.0

    Most recent Super Bowl champion
    Tom Brady confidant
    Whiskey lover and overall life enthusiast
    Arians has transitioned beautifully from life as the quarterback whisperer to life as the ultimate culture creator. His bright, young, diverse coaching staff is talented and something he can leave behind for another decade. His ability, as reported by our own Jenny Vrentas and Greg Bishop, to meld his offense and put his pride aside to accommodate Brady’s wishes brought forth a Super Bowl win that will stand forever.

    TIER 2
    Kyle Shanahan, 49ers
    CSR: 8.8

    Super Bowl appearance
    Creator of the NFL’s most en vogue offense
    Pioneer of meshed-back trucker hat renaissance
    It feels like even if the 49ers miss the playoffs this year there won’t be a ton of pressure on Shanahan, who has shown how dominant of a coach he can be with a fully healthy roster at his disposal. Shanahan’s coaching staff has been routinely pillaged during his time in the NFL, a sign that he’s doing something right.

    Sean McVay, Rams
    CSR: 8.8

    Super Bowl appearance
    Photographic memory
    Potent, option-style quarterback still in his athletic prime
    I feel fairly confident in saying that if the Rams were to shake anything up in the event of a down year in 2021, it would not be with the coaching staff. McVay rode his brilliant scheme to a Super Bowl appearance in 2018 and now gets a quarterback, in Matt Stafford, who can perhaps serve as a better avatar for his system. The future appears bright in L.A. Best of all, McVay’s identification of Brandon Staley shows he can identify coaching talent as well as on-field talent.

    Matt LaFleur, Packers
    • Ascending young offensive play-calling star
    • Can handle being around Aaron Rodgers
    • Former quarterback of a team called the Omaha Beef

    CSR: 8.8

    I view LaFleur on similar footing as Shanahan or McVay, given two straight 13-win seasons and two straight trips to the conference title game. The result in those games, outside of the interesting call to kick a field goal against the Buccaneers, was largely due to inefficiencies out of LaFleur’s control. The Packers struck gold with this hire and there’s little doubt he will be there after Rodgers moves on.

    Sean McDermott, Bills
    CSR: 8.7

    Ignited the league’s wildest fan base
    Changed a broken culture and made the Bills into consistent winners
    Accomplished wrestler, potentially the most dangerous NFL coach in hand-to-hand combat
    Buffalonians fall deeply in love with coaches who can bring even a modicum of energy to their city. Bring them within a whiff of the Super Bowl again and you can feel comfortable buying a house and hanging out for a while. McDermott has assembled one of the league’s best coaching staffs and has an ascending star quarterback still on a rookie deal.

    Ron Rivera, Washington
    CSR: 8.6

    Super Bowl appearance (at a previous stop)
    Defensive mastermind with a talented roster
    Quietly intimidating
    Rivera has brought a level of professionalism to Dan Snyder’s Washington Football Team that we haven’t seen since Mike Shanahan, which either means he can stay as long as he wants, or some absurd organizational discord will force his ouster after one just okay season. In all seriousness, there was a lot of mess to clean up, and Rivera brought a big shovel.

    Mike Vrabel, Titans
    CSR: 8.1

    Consistently fields teams that play well above on-paper expectation
    Fun dad
    Great mustache
    Vrabel has the eye and connections to field good offensive coordinators and the drawing power to bring in legendary defensive help when needed. He connects with players on a deeper level than perhaps any of the other current NFL head coaches and will always be a difficult coach to game plan against. He is the original kneecap biter.

    Mike Zimmer, Vikings
    CSR: 8.1

    Three playoff appearances in six years, 64 total wins
    Ornery, defensive mastermind with a history of good offensive assistants
    Owner of a rustic paradise with the largest deer head of any NFL coach
    Zimmer has become the definition of Why get rid of him? He’s always good enough, his teams are always somewhat competitive, he drafts fairly well and has no major flaws as a head coach. He fits the vibe in Minnesota well and has squeezed some impressive runs out of some O.K. teams.

    Kevin Stefanski, Browns
    CSR: 8.0

    Took the Browns to the playoffs for the first time since Nickelback’s “How You Remind Me” was the No. 1 song in the country
    Piloted a woebegone franchise through a pandemic
    Expertly trimmed 5 p.m. shadow
    Stefanski was the jewel of Browns chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta’s eye for a while, and their first year of marriage alongside GM Andrew Berry proved why. This organization is on the same page and Stefanski’s offense is the perfect fit for Baker Mayfield, who looks more in control and comfortable than at any point in his NFL career. If he can routinely visit the playoffs and develop a long-term quarterback, he’ll have done more than approximately 87 other Browns head coaches have been able to do since 1999.

    Brian Flores, Dolphins
    CSR: 7.9

    Has helped the Dolphins get taken seriously for the first time in more than a decade
    One of the few Belichick assistants who embodies the best of Belichick
    Refused an indirect order to tank and piloted a threadbare roster to five wins
    Flores will be in Miami for a long time, especially if he can find himself an offensive coordinator. His coaching job in 2019 was one of the best efforts from a new head coach we’ve ever seen, single-handedly willing a punchless roster to five wins. If Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t work out, Flores would seem to have the staying power to survive into QB2.

    Frank Reich, Colts
    CSR: 7.0

    • Quarterback whisperer on the rise
    • Two playoff appearances in his first three years
    • Beard/non-Beard versatility

    This will be an interesting season to gauge the long-term future of Reich. Carson Wentz is now (again) his quarterback and the two have an engrained relationship. If the Wentz experiment works, Reich will become indispensable in Indianapolis. If the Colts as presently constructed can’t make the playoffs, thus squandering the team at its collective prime, his star takes a bit of a hit. To be clear, Reich is tracking to be one of the better head coaches in the NFL, but this season could begin to tip the sliding scales in one direction or another.

    Matt Rhule, Panthers
    CSR: 6.8

    Highly sought-after collegiate coach with a history of program turnarounds
    Employer of one of the NFL’s best young offensive coaches
    Has the plucky demeanor of an amalgam of all Friday Night Lights characters
    Rhule’s six-year contract signals staying power on its own, but he handled his first season under the hood pretty well, all things considered. The Panthers were a tough team to play despite having limited talent. His inability to land a big-time quarterback may rear its head at some point, but for now, he’s not going anywhere.

    Joe Judge, Giants
    CSR: 6.9

    Would have coached a rudderless Giants team into the playoffs had the Eagles played four quarters in Week 17
    Has a laundry list of lovable, high school football coach drills
    Emanates grit
    Having covered the Giants on the beat and having covered football in the New York area for a decade, I can tell you there is an immediate smell test that a coach has to pass. Ben McAdoo never passed that test. The same could be said for Pat Shurmur. Joe Judge, on the other hand, seems to have employed a combination of on-field fire, deadpan humor and fundamental knowhow into a comfortable place on the coaching hierarchy.

    TIER 3
    Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals
    CSR: 6.3

    Air Raid savant
    Tenured relationship with star franchise quarterback
    Impeccable sense of space and decor
    Kingsbury is interesting in that the better Kyler Murray gets (partially because of his tutelage) the more pressure there will be on him to win. Arizona is pushing its chips to the center of the table this offseason, which means all eyes will be on a coach who went 5–10–1 and 8–8 in his first two years. Should he make the playoffs, all is well. Should Arizona falter, can he survive the closer Kyler Murray gets to a new contract?

    Jon Gruden, Raiders
    CSR: 6.2

    Forward thinking offensive mind
    Franchise icon
    Able pitchman
    I believe my former boss Peter King when he says the heat will get dialed up on Gruden if the Raiders don’t make the playoffs this year. Hiring Gruden in grand fashion was a great tribute to Al Davis from his son Mark. But keeping Gruden on a $100 million deal after four seasons and no playoff appearances would be a very un-Al thing to do.

    Mike McCarthy, Cowboys
    CSR: 6.0

    Super Bowl champion (though at a previous stop)
    Known quarterback whisperer
    Expert job interviewer
    I think anyone who’s coaching a quarterback Jerry Jones is paying $40 million per year better make the playoffs. To be clear, I have no doubt McCarthy will turn things around in Dallas, but I have a lot of doubts that Jones would be patient and let a tenured coach take a bunch of time finding his footing while the Cowboys’ core offensive players age out of their prime.

    Matt Nagy, Bears
    CSR: 5.7

    Play design expert
    Two-time playoff participant
    Endearing Philly-Delco accent
    I think Matt Nagy is a gifted painter trying to Bob Ross it in Chicago with a wooden club instead of some brushes. Perhaps Andy Dalton is the answer but, understandably, there isn’t a great deal of enthusiasm going into the season. If I were ownership, I would take solace in the fact that he could get some pretty bare offensive teams to the playoffs. Will ownership actually think that way?

    Vic Fangio, Broncos
    CSR: 5.5

    Creator of the NFL’s most devilish (and frequently copied) defensive scheme
    Experienced coach with strong relationships around the league
    Beloved native of the greater Scranton area
    There isn’t much bad to say about Fangio, but the reality of the situation is that he’s headed into year three of his coaching tenure with no winning seasons and a new general manager on board. This is always a tough situation for a coach, and unless the Broncos turn their fortunes around this year, it might be difficult for him to remain in Denver beyond 2021.

    Zac Taylor, Bengals
    CSR: 5.4

    Highly recommended play-caller from the Sean McVay tree
    Expressed a rare willingness and enthusiasm to live and work in Cincinnati
    Fan of simple, resellable home design
    I don’t know if the Bengals would get rid of Taylor after two years, but in general, life is fairly complicated for a head coach when he gets a quarterback at No. 1. The clock immediately starts ticking, and as good as Joe Burrow looked before his injury, would the Bengals start to worry that they aren’t getting enough out of their investment? Like the Gruden blurb, this is highly dependent on an owner we expect to be non-reactionary to actually be reactionary.

    #128624
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    Most 5th year qbs can’t read disguised coverages well. If that weren’t true than the Staley defense would have been a bust all along.

    Stafford was not reading disguised defenses well in his 5th year. If through some strange time loop McVay had been coaching a 5th year Stafford, McVay would have made all the same mistakes.

    How do you fix a 5th year qb who has trouble with disguised coverages (the way most 5th year qbs do?) You patiently coach him up as experience begins to shift the tide.

    That is all on McVay. That is the only way I can read all of this–that’s the only thing that adds up and stands up to scrutiny.

    Well, I don’t agree that we can say this is all on McVay.

    I agree that McVay screwed it up. No doubt. But I think there have been several 5th year QBs who read defenses well in their 5th years. Well before that, even. I don’t know anything about Stafford, or his development, but…okay.

    But that doesn’t mean that Goff isn’t a slow learner. It could be that both things are true. Was Goff making the same misreads time and time again? I don’t have any real idea what Goff was doing wrong, or reading wrong, but…sorry…lots of QBs get it before their 5th year, and if they are not showing progress by then, I don’t know what to say. I mean… Goff regressed according to multiple reports.

    In any event, the Rams window to win is right now. 2021 and 2022, maybe. According to McVay, Snead, and a few other people, Stafford gives them a much better shot of doing that.

    If he doesn’t… McVay’s next job will be as OC in Detroit.

    #128622
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Well, we gotta hope McVay is a better learner than Goff.

    Cuz…really, tearing down a young guy like that constantly, and with increasing intensity, is a mistake. Like a “league source” said, you have to build his confidence, and McVay did the opposite of that.

    However, the word is that Goff just couldn’t read some defenses properly,

    Most 5th year qbs can’t read disguised coverages well. If that weren’t true than the Staley defense would have been a bust all along.

    Stafford was not reading disguised defenses well in his 5th year. If through some strange time loop McVay had been coaching a 5th year Stafford, McVay would have made all the same mistakes.

    How do you fix a 5th year qb who has trouble with disguised coverages (the way most 5th year qbs do?) You patiently coach him up as experience begins to shift the tide.

    That is all on McVay. That is the only way I can read all of this–that’s the only thing that adds up and stands up to scrutiny.

    #127175
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    McVay strikes me as the kind of person that if you jettison him, he comes back stronger with his next team a few years down the road.

    Or the organization can be patient with him while he matures.

    Goffs contract is going to look a lot better in a couple/three years when the cap goes up.

    i agree with all of that. i just don’t like this pitting goff and mcvay against each other.

    i have faith they’ll sort this out. until i see more that is.

    #127173
    Hram
    Participant

    McVay strikes me as the kind of person that if you jettison him, he comes back stronger with his next team a few years down the road.

    Or the organization can be patient with him while he matures.

    Goffs contract is going to look a lot better in a couple/three years when the cap goes up.

    #127164
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    i would agree with that. but we don’t know what mcvay is frustrated by

    Or IF he should be frustrated. Maybe he should just be a hard-working, head-down, steady coach. He’s never had to be patient as a head coach, he arrived and took over a talent-stocked team. He never had to build or rebuild. My dark side is wondering how much McVay has to mature and get over some entitlement.

    #127137
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    The defense made this a fun season for me. Special Teams was broke. imo The offense was ok, if slightly broken. Goff is ok. I am not here to kick him off the bus, but I want a better QB. I know some like him and some hate him. I am in the middle looking for an upgrade.

    defense. amazing. so much fun.

    on goff. he’s average to above average. the green bay game did nothing to dissuade me from that. i listened to the podcasts and analysis of goff’s game, and i pretty much agree. he’s not going to offer the rams anything beyond what he’s already shown. he needs everything around him to be in order. but when it is. he can be real good.

    mcvay is probably wondering to himself if that is something he can live with. but finding an upgrade will be hard. it would be a career defining move for sean if attempts to pull it off. but it won’t be this offseason.

    also. lastly. i liked watching cam akers. i hope he can stay healthy next year. love his running style. patient but explosive. and he’s tough. i hope he sticks around for awhile.

    #125455

    Topic: Covid Penis

    in forum The Public House
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    https://elemental.medium.com/yes-covid-penis-is-a-thing-4a88a3843c2c

    Yes, Covid Penis Is a Thing
    Some men say Covid-19 is hitting them below the belt
    Wudan Yan 12 hours ago

    When Steven Bell caught Covid-19 this spring, he was surprised that he didn’t have a fever. Rather, it felt like a bad sinus infection. Soon, he lost his sense of smell, and went on to develop insomnia. He felt like the virus was also affecting his circulation, and would swing his arms in circles to keep the blood flowing. Then, more bafflingly, when he and his wife were intimate, he couldn’t get an erection. “It was frustrating and infuriating for me, because I knew it wasn’t working the way it should,” said Bell, a 49-year-old from Phoenix, AZ. “My ego wouldn’t accept that I was performing like an 80-year-old in the bedroom.”

    Some men who have survived Covid-19 say that the virus may have impacted their ability to get or maintain an erection. That tracks with the idea that Covid-19 is a vascular disease, which Elemental senior writer Dana Smith explained at length in May, as blood flow is important for getting or maintaining an erection. Erectile dysfunction can occur at any age — and becomes more common as men get older — and may affect up to a third of all men. In the context of Covid-19, men as young as 39 have been documented to experience erectile dysfunction as they recovered from the virus.

    “In order to have really great sex, you have to be able to relax. The pandemic just makes that exceedingly difficult for many people.”

    Currently, there are a handful of anecdotal reports, but no hard data nor large-scale study that documents the link, if any, between Covid-19 and erectile dysfunction. But for the men experiencing such issues, they’re convinced that the erectile dysfunction was caused by the novel coronavirus, because they never had issues with arousal or performance during sex prior to contracting the virus. Hunter Wessells, MD, a urologist at the University of Washington School of Medicine, urges other practitioners to collect this data on their patients. “It’s important to study it, because the total number of people involved may be in the millions and across all age ranges,” he says.

    What’s actually causing the ED?

    Figuring out the cause of erectile dysfunction would be challenging as there are so many potential causes.

    No matter the cause, “[erectile dysfunction is] the final common pathway that no man wants to go to,” says William W. Li, MD, president and medical director of the Angiogenesis Foundation, a nonprofit that studies the health and disease of blood vessels.

    For starters, the pandemic has introduced an immense amount of stress, says Alexandra Stockwell, a relationship and intimacy expert. “The desire for sex and intimacy is lower,” Stockwell says. “In order to have really great sex, you have to be able to relax. The pandemic just makes that exceedingly difficult for many people.”

    That seemed true for Bruce (whose name has been changed to protect his privacy), a 66-year-old from Long Island, NY, who experienced erectile dysfunction after getting Covid-19 in late March. For him, the ED, which persisted for four to five weeks, was just the tip of his issues. “I just wanted to be alive,” he said. “The ED was no big deal.”

    Based on what scientists know about SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, it’s possible that the virus could have direct effects on erectile dysfunction. Successfully getting and maintaining an erection not only depends on mood, but also testosterone, blood flow, and nerves. In the penis, nerves are critically dependent on a fishnet of blood vessels to get an erection. SARS-CoV-2 exploits the ACE2 receptor, which is found in both nerve cells and endothelial cells lining blood vessels. ACE2 is also found in the cells of the testicles, the organ in men that makes testosterone, a hormone that fuels a man’s sex drive. Li and his colleagues have found that the virus infects testicular cells during the acute phase of Covid-19, which means the virus may be impacting testosterone production.

    On top of the effects in the penis, Covid-19 affects the cardiovascular and pulmonary systems, which, in turn, are critical for sexual function, says Li.

    Wessells notes that underlying health conditions, such as diabetes, obesity, hypertension, inactivity, and smoking, may predispose men to developing ED, and that at least a few of those are associated with a higher risk of contracting Covid-19 as well. Once someone contracts Covid-19, that may be the “straw that broke the camel’s back for the ED,” Wessells says.

    Fortunately, for men who suffer from erectile dysfunction, many treatments, such as Viagra, should help even if Covid-19 has damaged the vasculature, says Wessells.

    Some men who say Covid-19 caused their erectile dysfunction have found some reprieve.

    Art (whose name has also been changed to protect his privacy), a 53-year-old from Elmira, New York, waited until marriage to have sex with his wife. Both of them got Covid-19 in the spring. During their honeymoon this summer, the sex just… didn’t happen, because he couldn’t get an erection. “We knew we wanted children, but I’m having all sorts of issues,” he said. “There’s definitely a degree of guilt. I’m convinced I’m the problem.” Doctors dismissed his concerns that the erectile dysfunction may have been caused by Covid-19. He eventually got over the stigma of talking about his sexual health and opened up to his parents, who suggested he start taking Geritol, vitamins that help with sexual dysfunction. So far, Art says, they’ve helped. “I need to make the best of it when I have it.”

    Even so, the emotional toll for some men persists.

    “When I’m in the mood and physically reporting for duty, my anxiety has increased,” says Bell. And he’s still sometimes frustrated about the impact that Covid-19 has had on his sex life: the erectile dysfunction “crushed” his confidence during sex.

    For now, he hopes that his story offers a cautionary tale. “Stay away from Covid to keep that willy up.”

    #125202
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Week 12: 4 Observations on the L.A. Rams’ 23-20 loss to the 49ers

    * http://ramstalk.net/week12ramsloss/

    The Los Angeles Rams (7-4) suffered a heartbreaking 23-20 loss to the San Francisco 49ers (5-6) at SoFi Stadium on Sunday, November 29. Rams quarterback Jared Goff completed 19 of 31 passes for 198 yards, two interceptions and a fumble lost in the defeat.

    Here are four observations on the game:

    TIME FOR JARED GOFF TO GROW UP

    I’ve defended Goff for much of his career for good reason. The Rams put him in a poor position with former head coach Jeff Fisher as a rookie, and he’s played under multiple offensive coordinators and quarterback coaches. However, the Rams traded a bounty to select him as the No. 1 overall pick of the 2016 NFL Draft to be their franchise quarterback. They later paid him $134 million over four years ($110 million guaranteed) believing that he was ready to lead the franchise. What we saw today from Goff is far below any bar set for a fifth-year franchise quarterback. In truth, Goff’s performance put him nowhere near the value of what the Rams are paying for.

    Goff will enter next week’s game against the Arizona Cardinals with the highest completion percentage of his career (67.25%). He’s already over 3,000 passing yards with an improved touchdown to interception ratio (16-10) over last season. Yet the inconsistent play that began in late 2018 has continued well into this season. Goff struggles under pressure and often fails to read opposing defenses. He possesses elite raw talent, but Goff’s decision-making often hurts his team at the worst times.

    The Rams’ defense led the comeback against the 49ers, saving Goff from taking full responsibility for the team’s loss. Still, his mistakes buried the Rams for much of the game. There are no more excuses for Jared Goff. His offensive line didn’t perform well, and head coach Sean McVay certainly deserves to be questioned for his playcalling, but Goff is paid to lead this franchise on the field. It’s time he acted like it.

    SEAN MCVAY’S FAILURE EVIDENT

    I’ve said it time and time again on the Rams Talk Radio podcast: John Lynch built the 49ers to beat the Rams. However, that doesn’t mean the Rams cannot match up with them. The 49ers feature a strong pass rush and a fast front seven. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh continually gameplans well for the Rams by constantly pressuring Goff and shutting down the edge against the running game.

    Sean McVay failed to adjust for his offensive line’s rough performance against the 49ers pass rush for much of the first 35 minutes of the game. Keeping Goff in the pocket against that pass rush proved costly time and time again. Couple that with his failure to establish the running game and McVay hamstrung his quarterback. The 49ers’ speed stymied the Rams running game on the outside, so the obvious answer would be to attack that speed by going in between the tackles. Unfortunately, McVay failed to do that until later in the game.

    McVay remains one of the brightest young minds in the game. However, he won’t win a Super Bowl until he learns to get out of his own way. Right now, McVay tends to get impatient when things don’t go his way, especially with the running game. Sometimes it’s a matter of patience, especially when facing athletic defenses. McVay could go down in history as one of the greatest coaches in the NFL. I truly believe that. However, it’s not going to happen if he doesn’t get out of his own head more.

    THE OFFENSIVE LINE IS A CONCERN

    The Rams offensive line protected Goff well against Tampa Bay last week, but it struggled against the aggressive 49ers front seven. Add in the Rams’ issues running the ball in the last two weeks, and there is reason for concern. The unit simply isn’t getting enough push at the line with left tackle Andrew Whitworth out of the lineup. Los Angeles is at its best when it physically controls the game. The Rams aren’t doing that, and with the Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray up next, a power running game is essential for their chances. It’s time for this entire unit to step up both in pass protection and in the running game. The Rams won’t make it far without the big men showing what they are made of up front.

    THE BRIGHT SPOT

    Fortunately, defensive coordinator Brandon Staley’s unit kept the Rams in the game despite four turnovers from the offense. Defensive lineman Aaron Donald reaffirmed his place among the best in the league with a dominant performance in the second half, culminating in a forced fumble returned for a touchdown by defensive back Troy Hill. There will be those that are critical of the defense’s performance on the last drive of the game. Yet it seems idiotic to point the blame at a unit that pulled the Rams back from the brink. The tired defense proved unable to make one more stop, but a nine-minute time of possession difference points to the offense, which failed to carry its weight. If Goff and the offense can figure it out, the Rams have a chance at a deep playoff run.

    #124630

    In reply to: Tampa next…thots?

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Ram_Ruler

    The bucs offense isn’t very patient and tries to force things vertically but the Rams do a good job of taking away the big plays. Bucs bury themselves by not adjusting (see the bears game).

    #124626
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Science Has Learned So Much About COVID—and the Trump Administration Hasn’t Learned Anything at All
    We’ve come a long way since March, yet our leaders are giving up.

    * https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/11/science-has-learned-so-much-about-covid-and-the-trump-administration-hasnt-learned-anything-at-all/?utm_campaign=later-linkinbio-motherjonesmag&utm_content=later-12061299&utm_medium=social&utm_source=instagram&fbclid=IwAR0vK6NFHQWS49wak3FxoItjOCV3DXXYSwPDLQzfoT84Nn1jdY7Oitc95kQ

    We are in the throes of the coronavirus’ deadly third surge. Daily cases in the United States are getting dangerously close to 200,000, and a map with each state’s case count basically looks like one big hot spot. New stay-at-home advisories and mask mandates have been issued in some communities in the Midwest. California is putting the brakes on its reopening plans. ICUs are filling up fast. In North Dakota, health care workers who test positive but aren’t showing symptoms are being asked to report to work. Dr. Anthony Fauci recently warned that an additional 200,000 people could die of COVID by the spring if we don’t get things under control soon.

    How did we get to such a dark place? In part, it’s the fault of the cold weather driving people indoors, where the virus spreads much more efficiently. At Mother Jones, we’ve charted the abject failure of the Trump administration to do anything about the spread of the coronavirus—you can see its sweep in our timeline, which is called Superspreader in Chief. We’ve watched in horror as our leaders sat back and let a quarter of a million Americans die, promoting dangerous misinformation. The Great Barrington Declaration, embraced by White House coronavirus adviser Scott Atlas, basically suggests letting the virus run its course—a plan that would lead to millions of unnecessary deaths, mostly in vulnerable communities. For many reasons, it’s looking like Americans are just giving up.

    Our leaders’ attitude of indifference is contagious, and as a result, there’s an all-or-nothing kind of mentality as we go into the holidays: You can hole up in your house alone—or blithely ignore the disease and host a rager with 50 members of your extended family. Indeed, a new Ohio State poll out this week found that 38 percent of people surveyed planned to attend holiday gatherings of 10 or more people.

    When looking around for others to blame, the Trump administration has cast public health officials as the enemies—bloodless, liberal data wonks who want to enforce draconian lockdowns while destroying what’s left of the economy. Nothing could be further from the truth: Scientists are working overtime to figure out how we can reduce our risk so we can continue to live our lives. (If we had an effective public health messaging system, we’d know that, but I digress.)

    Here’s the secret that the Trump administration doesn’t want you to know: Science can set us free. Though the pandemic may seem to be dragging on indefinitely, we’re learning about the coronavirus at an unbelievable clip. Scientists know so much more now than they did back in March about how the virus spreads—and how to stop it in its tracks.

    One of my son’s favorite books is Boy, Were We Wrong About Dinosaurs! It’s all about how paleontologists have revised their hypotheses over the years as they uncover more fossils to learn from. It’s kind of been the same experience for epidemiologists, virologists, and infectious disease experts over these last nine months. Here’s a far from comprehensive list of some of the leaps they’ve made. Let’s call it Boy, Were We Wrong About the Coronavirus!

    Back in March, we thought: that the virus was transmitted on surfaces like doorknobs, counters, and food packaging.

    Now we know: that while the virus can survive on surfaces, it’s mostly transmitted through respiratory droplets from breathing, talking, laughing, singing, coughing, and sneezing.

    What that means: Most public health experts still emphasize the importance of hand-washing and regular surface cleaning, but they don’t recommend wiping down your groceries.

    Back in March, we thought: that masks weren’t effective in preventing the spread of the virus.
    Now we know: that cloth face coverings can protect both the wearer and those around them. One recent University of Washington study estimated that universal mask-wearing could save 130,000 lives by February. Masks may even act as a crude vaccine, exposing wearers to just enough virus to trigger an immune response.

    What that means: You can feel pretty safe running to the grocery store, the doctor’s office, or other public indoor spaces if you and others are wearing masks. You can minimize your risk of transmitting the virus during a holiday gathering if everyone wears masks and stays outside.

    Back in March, we thought: that only people who showed symptoms could transmit the coronavirus.

    Now we know: that asymptomatic people can and do spread the virus.
    What that means: Health care professionals can now tell patients who have been exposed to someone with the virus to isolate right away, even if they don’t feel sick, thereby preventing additional infections.

    Back in March, we thought: that we’d never be able to scale up testing enough to make a difference.

    Now we know: that while we still have a long way to go, testing is free, quick, and readily available in many places. Just this week, there was more good news on the testing front: The FDA has authorized the first at-home rapid test for the virus.

    What that means: We now have the ability to catch cases early, before the infected person has a chance to spread the virus to many others. The key now is convincing people to be tested and investing in systems to warn people who have been in close contact with those who test positive.

    Back in March, we thought: that air filtration systems might not help limit the spread of the virus.

    Now we know: that while they’re not enough on their own to protect us, when used correctly and in combination with masks, HEPA filters can help.
    What that means: Installing filters can offer an additional layer of protection for essential spaces like hospitals and classrooms.

    Back in March, we thought: that schools would be the main way that the coronavirus spreads.

    Now we know: that while school outbreaks do occur, indoor spaces where adults congregate are much more likely to lead to outbreaks. A recent study in the journal Nature found that in urban areas, restaurants, gyms, hotels, cafes, and houses of worship were the source of most superspreader events. Schools, meanwhile, have not seen as many outbreaks as experts initially feared, especially at the elementary level.

    What that means: We can prioritize reopening schools with appropriate safety measures—and putting more restrictions on restaurants, bars, gyms, and other adult-centered businesses.

    To explain the power of these measures, public health experts like to use the analogy of layers of slices of Swiss cheese. In one slice, there are many holes. If you add another slice, it covers up a few of those holes, and so on. The more layers, the closer you get to an opaque hunk of cheese. The more virus-protection strategies you layer on, the less likely it is the virus will sneak through.

    Of course there are more layers should infection occur: Coronavirus treatments have improved immensely—back in March the ventilator was basically the only tool doctors had, and it wasn’t a very good one. Now we know that “proning”—placing patients on their stomach—can help them breathe better. We have a fleet of promising medications, including, as of last week, an antibody treatment that seems to be effective in preventing severe disease. The brass ring, of course, is the promise of several highly effective vaccines expected to begin distribution before year’s end.

    But as I’ve written before, medical breakthroughs on their own won’t stop this virus. What’s more, despite what our leaders say, we don’t have to sit around and wait for a miracle cure, nor must we throw our hands up in despair and let the virus run loose. We do have agency in this situation. We have the power to protect ourselves and our loved ones, thanks to the dazzlingly fast and careful work of scientists. The best way to honor that work is by letting it empower us.

    #124462

    In reply to: Portland anarchy

    waterfield
    Participant

    This following article was on the front page of the L.A. Times this morning under the title “Portland anarchists spark backlash”

    “Portland’s anarchists say they support racial justice. Black activists want nothing to do with them….

    ==================

    I have many layers of thoughts/feelings about ‘anarchist’ direct-action campaigns like this. Too many to list.

    …On the one hand, i think most-if-not-all of the young-anarchists have a higher Political-IQ than 90 percent of the American population. I think they understand what capitalism is doing to the nation, and to the biosphere.
    So, they are smart, informed, passionate, critical-thinkers, for the most part.
    (at least the ones who are legit anarchist, and not proud-boy-types doing false-flag games)

    But, being young, and passionate the anarchists are utterly stupid when it comes to strategy, tactics, etc. Many are impatient, and reckless and selfish. And they are young, so there is no getting thru to them.

    And to just shoot from the hip…I have noticed in my life, that Anarchists tend to be giant pains-in-the-Ass. To everyone. Including other Anarchists.

    Switching to another layer….when i put it in a wider context, Corporate-capitalism is causing mass extinctions, fracking poisoning of children, pollution, Climate Change, Mass Incarceration, Ungodly-Inequality which leads to massive suffering and death, Imperialism, Massive Lie-Campaigns, Coups, Torture, etc etc etc.

    So you have THAT on one hand. Meanwhile the LA Times focuses on a small group of anarchists breaking windows.

    That is corporate media. Perfect example of corporate media. What they cover. How they cover it. And what they dont cover.

    w
    v

    Well-the L.A. Times has published many articles about Portland that run the spectrum. So I don’t subscribe to the notion that they “focus on a small group of anarchists breaking windows”. I also don’t accept the idea that the anarchists were simply breaking windows. I don’t live there and was not there at the time but my childhood and long lasting friend lives outside Portland and said it wasn’t just “windows”. Also my son and his family were visiting Portland after picking up my grandson after a ski camp at Mt. Hood. He said also that it was scary and he is not afraid of broken windows.

    As far as anarchists having a higher IQ than 90% of the US population. That’s simply an outburst. Me? I think most “anarchists” love anarchy. Doesn’t matter what the issue is. They love causing unrest. Not because of political issues. They simply love causing unrest. These are not college post grads going back to coffee houses and discussing Marx and Keynesian economics. No these are simple souls saying “hey look at me. Rage against the machine. You don’t like it-fuck you . Ha,Ha,Ha !” That’s my outburst.

    #124460

    In reply to: Portland anarchy

    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    ==================

    I have many layers of thoughts/feelings about ‘anarchist’ direct-action campaigns like this. Too many to list.

    …On the one hand, i think most-if-not-all of the young-anarchists have a higher Political-IQ than 90 percent of the American population. I think they understand what capitalism is doing to the nation, and to the biosphere.
    So, they are smart, informed, passionate, critical-thinkers, for the most part.
    (at least the ones who are legit anarchist, and not proud-boy-types doing false-flag games)

    But, being young, and passionate the anarchists are utterly stupid when it comes to strategy, tactics, etc. Many are impatient, and reckless and selfish. And they are young, so there is no getting thru to them.

    And to just shoot from the hip…I have noticed in my life, that Anarchists tend to be giant pains-in-the-Ass. To everyone. Including other Anarchists.

    Switching to another layer….when i put it in a wider context, Corporate-capitalism is causing mass extinctions, fracking poisoning of children, pollution, Climate Change, Mass Incarceration, Ungodly-Inequality which leads to massive suffering and death, Imperialism, Massive Lie-Campaigns, Coups, Torture, etc etc etc.

    So you have THAT on one hand. Meanwhile the LA Times focuses on a small group of anarchists breaking windows.

    That is corporate media. Perfect example of corporate media. What they cover. How they cover it. And what they dont cover.

    w
    v

    Yep. ^^^^This^^^^

    #124452

    In reply to: Portland anarchy

    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    This following article was on the front page of the L.A. Times this morning under the title “Portland anarchists spark backlash”

    “Portland’s anarchists say they support racial justice. Black activists want nothing to do with them….

    ==================

    I have many layers of thoughts/feelings about ‘anarchist’ direct-action campaigns like this. Too many to list.

    …On the one hand, i think most-if-not-all of the young-anarchists have a higher Political-IQ than 90 percent of the American population. I think they understand what capitalism is doing to the nation, and to the biosphere.
    So, they are smart, informed, passionate, critical-thinkers, for the most part.
    (at least the ones who are legit anarchist, and not proud-boy-types doing false-flag games)

    But, being young, and passionate the anarchists are utterly stupid when it comes to strategy, tactics, etc. Many are impatient, and reckless and selfish. And they are young, so there is no getting thru to them.

    And to just shoot from the hip…I have noticed in my life, that Anarchists tend to be giant pains-in-the-Ass. To everyone. Including other Anarchists.

    Switching to another layer….when i put it in a wider context, Corporate-capitalism is causing mass extinctions, fracking poisoning of children, pollution, Climate Change, Mass Incarceration, Ungodly-Inequality which leads to massive suffering and death, Imperialism, Massive Lie-Campaigns, Coups, Torture, etc etc etc.

    So you have THAT on one hand. Meanwhile the LA Times focuses on a small group of anarchists breaking windows.

    That is corporate media. Perfect example of corporate media. What they cover. How they cover it. And what they dont cover.

    w
    v

    #124293
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from ‘No One Is Listening to Us’
    More people than ever are hospitalized with COVID-19. Health-care workers can’t go on like this.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/11/third-surge-breaking-healthcare-workers/617091/?fbclid=IwAR27_eCSc48uJXsmkaMydzbwbSLSHlRDZmAbvpUss-TEpfW4zpH8hL4yiIo

    Every time nurse Megan Ranney returns to the hospital, there are more COVID-19 patients.

    In the months since March, many Americans have habituated to the horrors of the pandemic. But health-care workers do not have the luxury of looking away: They’re facing a third pandemic surge that is bigger and broader than the previous two. In the U.S., states now report more people in the hospital with COVID-19 than at any other point this year—and 40 percent more than just two weeks ago.

    Emergency rooms are starting to fill again with COVID-19 patients. Utah, where Nathan Hatton is a pulmonary specialist at the University of Utah Hospital, is currently reporting 2,500 confirmed cases a day, roughly four times its summer peak. Hatton says that his intensive-care unit is housing twice as many patients as it normally does. His shifts usually last 12 to 24 hours, but can stretch to 36. “There are times I’ll come in in the morning, see patients, work that night, work all the next day, and then go home,” he told me. I asked him how many such shifts he has had to do. “Too many,” he said.

    Hospitals have put their pandemic plans into action, adding more beds and creating makeshift COVID-19 wards. But in the hardest-hit areas, there are simply not enough doctors, nurses, and other specialists to staff those beds. Some health-care workers told me that COVID-19 patients are the sickest people they’ve ever cared for: They require twice as much attention as a typical intensive-care-unit patient, for three times the normal length of stay. “It was doable over the summer, but now it’s just too much,” says Whitney Neville, a nurse based in Iowa. “Last Monday we had 25 patients waiting in the emergency department. They had been admitted but there was no one to take care of them.” I asked her how much slack the system has left. “There is none,” she said.

    The entire state of Iowa is now out of staffed beds, Eli Perencevich, an infectious-disease doctor at the University of Iowa, told me. Worse is coming. Iowa is accumulating more than 3,600 confirmed cases every day; relative to its population, that’s more than twice the rate Arizona experienced during its summer peak, “when their system was near collapse,” Perencevich said. With only lax policies in place, those cases will continue to rise. Hospitalizations lag behind cases by about two weeks; by Thanksgiving, today’s soaring cases will be overwhelming hospitals that already cannot cope. “The wave hasn’t even crashed down on us yet,” Perencevich said. “It keeps rising and rising, and we’re all running on fear. The health-care system in Iowa is going to collapse, no question.”

    In the imminent future, patients will start to die because there simply aren’t enough people to care for them. Doctors and nurses will burn out. The most precious resource the U.S. health-care system has in the struggle against COVID-19 isn’t some miracle drug. It’s the expertise of its health-care workers—and they are exhausted.

    The struggles of the first two COVID-19 surges in the United States helped hospitals steel themselves for the third. Hardened by the crucible of March and April, New York City built up its ability to spot burgeoning hot spots, trace contacts, and offer places where infected people can isolate. “We’re seeing red flags but we’ve prepared ourselves,” says Syra Madad from NYC Health + Hospitals. Experienced health-care workers are less fearful than they were earlier this year. “We’ve been through this before and we know what we have to do,” says Uché Blackstock, an emergency physician who works in Brooklyn. And with the new generation of rapid tests, Blackstock says she can now tell patients if they have the coronavirus within minutes—a huge improvement over the spring, when tests were scarce and slow.

    Smaller clinics, nursing homes, and long-term-care facilities are still struggling to provide personal protective equipment, including gloves and masks. “About a third are completely out of at least one type of PPE” despite having COVID-19 cases, says Esther Choo, a physician at Oregon Health and Science University and a founder of Get Us PPE. But larger hospitals are doing better, having built up stockpiles and backup plans in case supply chains become strained again. “The hospital is probably the safest place to work in Iowa, because we actually have PPE,” Perencevich said.

    Most important, COVID-19 is no longer a total mystery. Health-care workers now have a clearer idea of what the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is capable of. Protocols that didn’t exist in the spring have become habit. “It used to be that to do a single thing, people would start email chains and you’d be 100 emails in before we knew the answer,” Choo says. “Now we’re moving faster. It feels a lot more confident.”

    There are still no cures, and the best drug on offer—the steroid dexamethasone—reduces the odds of dying from COVID-19 by at most 12 percent. But doctors know how to triage patients, which tests to order, and which treatments to use. They know that ventilators can sometimes hurt patients, and that “proning”—flipping patients onto their stomach—can help. They know about the blood clots and kidney problems. They know that hydroxychloroquine doesn’t work. This cumulative knowledge means that death rates from COVID-19 are much lower now than they were in the spring. Flattening the curve worked as intended, giving health-care workers some breathing room to learn how to handle a disease that didn’t even exist this time last year.

    But these hard-earned successes are brittle. If death rates have fallen thanks to increasing medical savvy, they might rise again as nurses and doctors burn out. “If we can get patients into staffed beds, I feel like they’re doing better,” Perencevich said. “But that requires a functional health-care system, and we’re at the point where we aren’t going to have that.”

    Intensive-care units are called that for a reason. A typical patient with a severe case of COVID-19 will have a tube connecting their airways to a ventilator, which must be monitored by a respiratory therapist. If their kidneys shut down, they might be on 24-hour dialysis. Every day, they’ll need to be flipped onto their stomach, and then onto their back again—a process that requires six or seven people. They’ll have several tubes going into their heart and blood vessels, administering eight to 12 drugs—sedatives, pain medications, blood thinners, antibiotics, and more. All of these must be carefully adjusted, sometimes minute to minute, by an ICU nurse. None of these drugs is for treating COVID-19 itself. “That’s just to keep them alive,” Neville, the Iowa nurse, said. An ICU nurse can typically care for two people at a time, but a single COVID-19 patient can consume their full attention. Those patients remain in the ICU for three times the length of the usual stay.

    Nurses and doctors are also falling sick themselves. “The winter is traditionally a very stressful time in health care, and everyone gets taken down at some point,” says Saskia Popescu, an infection preventionist at George Mason University, who is based in Arizona. The third COVID-19 surge has intensified this seasonal cycle, as health-care workers catch the virus, often from outside the hospital. “Our unplanned time off is double what it was last October,” says Allison Suttle of Sanford Health, a health system operating in South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota. Many hospitals have staff on triple backup: While off their shifts, they should expect to get called in if a colleague and their first substitute and the substitute’s substitute are all sick. At least 1,375 U.S. health-care workers have died from COVID-19.

    The first two surges were concentrated in specific parts of the country, so beleaguered hospitals could call for help from states that weren’t besieged. “People were coming to us in our hour of need,” says Madad, from NYC Health + Hospitals, “but now the entire nation is on fire.” No one has reinforcements to send. There are travel nurses who aren’t tied to specific health systems, but the hardest-hit rural hospitals are struggling to attract them away from wealthier, urban centers. “Everyone is tapping into the same pool, and people don’t want to work in Fargo, North Dakota, for the holidays,” Suttle says. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum recently said that nurses who are positive for COVID-19 but symptom-free can return to work in COVID-19 units. “That’s just a big red flag of just how serious it is,” Suttle says. (The North Dakota Nurses Association has rejected the policy.)

    Short-staffed hospitals could transfer their patients—but to where? “A lot of smaller hospitals don’t have ventilators or staff trained to take care of someone in critical condition,” says Renae Moch, the director of Bismarck-Burleigh Public Health, North Dakota. “They’re looking to larger hospitals,” but those are also full.

    Making matters worse, patients with other medical problems are sicker than usual, several doctors told me. During the earlier surges, hospitals canceled elective surgeries and pulled in doctors from outpatient clinics. People with heart problems, cancers, strokes, and other diseases found it harder to get medical help, and some sat on their illness for fear of contracting COVID-19 at the hospital. Now health-care workers are facing an influx of unusually sick people at a time when COVID-19 has consumed their attention and their facilities. “We’re still catching up on all of that,” says Choo, the Oregon physician. “Even the simplest patients aren’t simple.”

    For many health-care workers, the toll of the pandemic goes beyond physical exhaustion. COVID-19 has eaten away at the emotional core of their work. “To be a nurse, you really have to care about people,” Neville said. But when an ICU is packed with COVID-19 patients, most of whom are likely to die, “to protect yourself, you just shut down. You get to the point when you realize that you’ve become a machine. There’s only so many bags you can zip.”

    As the pandemic moved out of big coastal cities and into rural communities, health-care workers were more likely to treat people they knew personally—relatives, hospital colleagues, the bus driver who drove their kids to school. And across the country, doctors and nurses have struggled with the same anxieties as everyone else—loneliness, extra child-care burdens, the stress of a tumultuous year, fear. “The lines between our personal lives and our careers have completely gone,” says Laolu Fayanju, senior medical director in Ohio of Oak Street Health, a national network of primary-care centers. “We’re often thinking about how we protect ourselves, our families, and our neighborhoods” from the pandemic.

    After SARS hit Toronto in 2003, health-care workers at hospitals that treated SARS patients showed higher levels of burnout and posttraumatic stress up to two years later, compared with those at hospitals in nearby cities that didn’t see the disease. That outbreak lasted just four months. The COVID-19 pandemic is now in its tenth month. “I’ve had conversations with people who’ve been nurses for 25 years, and all of them say the same thing: ‘We’ve never worked in this environment before,’” says Jennifer Gil from Thomas Jefferson University Hospital in Philadelphia, who contracted COVID-19 herself in March. “How much can meditation or mental-health resources help when we’re doing this every day?”

    Even after cases stop climbing, health-care workers will have to catch up on a new round of procedures that didn’t happen because of COVID-19—but without the adrenaline that a packed hospital brings. “Everyone talks about fatigue during the surge, but one of the hardest things is coming down from it,” Popescu says. “You’re exhausted but you still don’t get that mental break.”

    As hard as the work fatigue is, the “societal fatigue” is harder, said Hatton, the Utah pulmonary specialist. He is tired of walking out of an ICU where COVID-19 has killed another patient, and walking into a grocery store where he hears people saying it doesn’t exist. Health-care workers and public-health officials have received threats and abusive messages accusing them of fearmongering. They’ve watched as friends have adopted Donald Trump’s lies about doctors juking the hospitalization numbers to get more money. They’ve pleaded with family members to wear masks and physically distance, lest they end up competing for ICU beds that no longer exist. “Nurses have been the most trusted profession for 18 years in a row, which is now bullshit because no one is listening to us,” Neville said.

    Choo also studies the impacts of health-care policy, and has found that health-care systems sometimes react to imminent policies months before they are actually come into force.

    Still, “you can’t just fix a pandemic this far down the rabbit hole,” Popescu says. “I’m hopeful, but I don’t expect this to suddenly turn itself around overnight.”

    “We can’t just sit on our hands and wait for Jan. 20 to come,” said Megan Ranney, the Rhode Island physician. Several health-care workers I spoke with are trying to keep mild cases of COVID-19 from becoming severe enough to warrant an ICU bed. The Oak Street Health primary-care centers deliver fluids, pulse oximeters, and smart tablets to the homes of newly diagnosed COVID-19 patients, so doctors can check on their symptoms virtually. In North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, the Sanford Health network has set up outpatient “infusion centers” where elderly COVID-19 patients or those with chronic illnesses can get drugs that might slow the progression of their disease. These drugs will include the antibody therapy bamlanivimab, which received an emergency-use authorization from the FDA on Monday, Suttle told me.

    But the best strategy remains the obvious one: Keep people from getting infected at all. Once again, the fate of the U.S. health-care system depends on the collective action of its citizens. Once again, the nation must flatten the curve. This need not involve a lockdown. We now know that the coronavirus mostly spreads through the air, and does so easily when people spend prolonged periods together in poorly ventilated areas. People can reduce their risk by wearing masks and avoiding indoor spaces such as restaurants, bars, and gyms, where the possibility of transmission is especially high (no matter how often these places clean their surfaces). Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings, for which several generations will travel around the country for days of close indoor contact and constant conversation, will be risky too.

    Preliminary results suggest that at least one effective vaccine is on the way. The choices made in the coming weeks will influence how many Americans die before they have a chance to receive it, and how many health-care workers are broken in the process.

    #124168
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    COVID-19 Hospitalizations Are Surging. Where Are Hospitals Reaching Capacity?
    Surging hospitalizations are straining health care systems around the United States.

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/10/933253317/covid-19-hospitalizations-are-surging-where-are-hospitals-reaching-capacity

    Throughout the U.S., hospitals and health care workers are tracking the skyrocketing number of new coronavirus cases in their communities and bracing for a flood of patients to come in the wake of those infections. Already, seriously ill COVID-19 patients are starting to fill up hospital beds at unsustainable rates.

    U.S. hospitalizations overall have nearly doubled since late September. As of Tuesday, 59,275 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized around the country, nearly on par with the highs of the midsummer and spring surges.

    “We have legitimate reason to be very, very concerned about our health system at a national level,” says Lauren Sauer, an assistant professor of emergency medicine at Johns Hopkins University who studies hospital surge capacity.

    The spring and summer waves of COVID-19 hospitalizations were concentrated largely in a handful of cities in the Northeast and parts of the South.

    With the virus now surging across the country, experts warn that the impact of this next wave of hospitalizations will be even more devastating and protracted.

    “I fear that we’re going to have multiple epicenters,” says Dr. Mahshid Abir, an emergency physician at the University of Michigan and researcher at the Rand Corp. who has developed a model that helps hospitals manage surge capacity.

    If that happens, Abir warns that there won’t be flexibility to shuffle around resources to the places in need because everywhere will be overwhelmed.

    The impact varies state by state with certain areas showing much more rapid increases in hospitalizations. As of Monday, hospitalizations are now rising in 47 states, according to data collected by The COVID Tracking Project, and 22 states are seeing their highest numbers of COVID-19 hospitalizations since the pandemic began.

    Where are hospitals at risk of maxing out?

    With the numbers growing nearly everywhere, the key question for hospital leaders and policymakers is, when is a community on the brink of having more patients than it can handle?

    In parts of the Midwest and the West, hospitals are already brushing up against their capacity to deliver care. Some are struggling to find room for patients, even in large urban hospitals that have more beds.

    But the surge in hospitalizations is not evenly spread — and hospitals’ capacity for weathering case surges varies greatly.

    One way to gauge the growing stress on a health care system is by tracking the share of hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients.

    Article continues after sponsor message

    The federal department of Health and Human Services tracks and publishes this data at the state (but not the local) level. Several experts NPR spoke to say that, though imperfect, this is one of the best metrics communities have to work with.

    Though there’s not a fixed threshold that applies to all hospitals, generally speaking, once COVID-19 hospitalizations exceed 10% of all available beds, that signals an increasing risk that the health care system could soon be overwhelmed, explains Sauer.

    “We start to pay attention above 5%,” says Sauer. “Above that, 10% is where we think, ‘Perhaps we have to start enacting surge strategies and crisis standards of care in some places.'”

    Crisis standards of care is a broad term for how to prioritize medical treatment when resources are scarce. In the most extreme cases, that can lead to rationing of care based on a patient’s chance of survival.

    The latest data from HHS shows that in 18 states — mostly in the Midwest — COVID-19 hospitalizations have already climbed above 10%.

    Six states are over 15%, including North Dakota and South Dakota, which are now over 20%.

    Hospital capacity is flexible … until it’s not

    The percentage of hospital beds taken up by COVID-19 patients does not tell a complete story about hospital capacity, says Sauer, but it’s a starting point.

    Hospital capacity is not so much a static number, but an ever-shifting balance of resources. “It’s space, staff and stuff, and you need all three, and if you don’t have one, it doesn’t matter if you have the other two,” says Abir.

    The level of COVID-19 hospitalizations that would be a crisis in one place might not be in another. Still, a growing share of beds occupied by COVID-19 patients can be a strong signal that the health care system is headed for trouble.

    COVID-19 patients can be more labor intensive because health care workers have to follow intricate protocols around personal protective equipment and infection control. And some of the patients take up ICU space.

    “When the numbers go up like that, particularly for critical care, that strains the system pretty significantly,” says Abir. “This is a scarce resource. Critical care nurses are scarce. Ventilators are scarce. Respiratory therapists are scarce.”

    In Utah, where the share of hospitalized COVID-19 patients is about 8%, state health officials have already warned that hospitals may soon be forced to ration care because of limited ICU space.

    There is no “magic number” to indicate when a health care system may be overwhelmed, says Eugene Litvak, who is CEO of the Institute for Healthcare Optimization and helps advise hospitals on how to manage their capacity. But hospitals must be alert to rapid increases in patient load.

    “Even a 10% increase can be quite dangerous,” says Litvak. “If you are a hospital that’s half empty, you can tolerate it.” But U.S. hospitals generally run close to capacity, Litvak says, with above 90% of beds already full — especially toward the end of the week.

    “Imagine that 10% of extremely sick patients on top of that,” he says. “What are your options? You can not admit ambulances and patients with non-COVID medical needs, or you have to cancel your elective surgeries.”

    In the spring, some states ordered that most elective surgeries come to a halt so that hospitals had room for COVID-19 patients, but Litvak says this leads to all kinds of collateral damage because patients don’t get the care they need and hospitals lose money and lay off staff.

    State data may miss local hot spots

    Statewide COVID-19 hospitalization metrics mask huge variations within a state. Certain health care systems or metro areas may be in crisis.

    “It’s very valuable information, but a state average can be misleading,” says Ali Mokdad with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, which projects that many states will face big problems with hospital capacity this winter. “It doesn’t tell you where in the states it’s happening.”

    Big urban centers may be much better equipped to absorb a rush of patients than smaller towns.

    In New York City, Mount Sinai Health System was able to more than double its bed capacity during the spring surge. Other communities don’t have the ability to ramp up capacity so quickly.

    “Especially the states that don’t have major cities with major hospitals, you see a lot of stress on them,” Mokdad says.

    But it’s hard for researchers and health leaders to get a clear picture of what’s happening regionally without good data, he adds. NPR has reported that the federal government does not share this local data, although it does collect it daily.

    Some states publish their own hospital data sets. Texas, which shares the data in detail, provides a striking example. Statewide, COVID-19 hospitalizations have reached about 11%. Meanwhile, El Paso is above 40%, which has pushed the health care system to the brink.

    Ultimately, it’s difficult to know the true capacity for a region because many hospitals still don’t coordinate well, says Dr. Christina Cutter, an emergency physician at the University of Michigan who collaborated on the Rand model with Abir.

    “It’s really hard to make sure you’re leveraging all the resources and that one hospital is not overburdened compared to another hospital, and that may have unintended loss of life as a consequence,” Cutter says.

    Dire consequences of overfilled hospitals

    During the height of Arizona’s summer surge, COVID-19 patients filled nearly half of all beds in the state.

    “When 50% of our hospital is doing COVID, it means the hospital is overloaded. It means that other services in that hospital are being delayed,” says Mokdad. “The hospital becomes a nightmare.”

    Health care workers are pushed to their limits and are required to treat more patients at the same time. Hospitals can construct makeshift field hospitals to add to their capacity, but those can be logistically challenging and still require health care workers to staff the beds.

    In Wisconsin, COVID-19 patients account for 17% of all hospitalizations, and many hospitals are warning that they are at or near capacity.

    The Marshfield Clinic Health System, which runs nine hospitals in primarily rural parts of the state, is expecting its share of COVID-19 patients to double, if not more, by the end of the month.

    “That will push us well beyond our staffing levels,” says Dr. William Melms, chief medical officer at Marshfield. “We can always make more space, but creating the manpower to take care of our patients is the dilemma.”

    During earlier surges, many hospitals relied on bringing in hundreds or even thousands of out-of-state health care workers for backup, but Melms says that is not happening this time.

    “We are on an island out here,” he says.

    An increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations statewide is also associated with higher mortality, according to a recent study that analyzed the relationship between COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths.

    “It’s an indicator that you’re going to have more deaths from COVID as you see the numbers inch up in the hospital,” says Pinar Karaca-Mandic, professor and academic director of the Medical Industry Leadership Institute at the University of Minnesota.

    Specifically, Karaca-Mandic’s research found that a 1% increase of COVID-19 patients in a state’s ICU beds will lead to about 2.8 additional deaths in the next seven days.

    She says a statewide level of 20% COVID-19 hospitalizations may not look all that alarming, but that number doesn’t capture the constraints on the health care system in adding more ICU beds.

    “That’s not very flexible,” she says. “It requires a lot of planning. It requires a lot of investments. So the more you fill up the ICU, the impact is going to be larger.”

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