Sando: Insiders’ early thoughts on Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl matchup

Sando’s Pick Six: Insiders’ early thoughts on the Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl matchup

Mike Sando

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As sentimental sports moments go, Kansas City Chiefs owner Clark Hunt accepting the Lamar Hunt Trophy, named for his late father, is tough to beat. The elder Hunt passed in 2006, and the last time the Chiefs reached a Super Bowl, 50 years ago, Clark was not even five years old. Clark’s mother, Norma, was there then, and she was there for the AFC’s trophy presentation at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday after the Chiefs beat the Tennessee Titans 35-24. It was a special moment for a fanbase that had to wonder if this day would ever arrive.

The San Francisco 49ers answered the emotional call in their own way after dominating Green Bay on the NFC side. Retired two-time Super Bowl-winning coach Mike Shanahan presented the George Halas Trophy to his son, Kyle, after the organization reached the NFC summit in just three seasons with the younger Shanahan as head coach.

Every Super Bowl should carry high emotional stakes and this Chiefs-49ers matchup qualifies, especially for Kansas City. The football matchup is an exceptional one as well. Handing two weeks of preparation time to offensive schemers as gifted as Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid adds to the schematic intrigue. We’ll get into that and much more in the “Pick Six” column from the conference championship round. The full menu:

1. The Chiefs opened as one-point favorites over the 49ers with a 54-point total for the over-under.Here’s what two veteran coaches with Super Bowl experience said about the matchup Sunday night.
“I would probably take Kansas City because I think if it comes down to having to make a play in the pass game, I think (Patrick) Mahomes is better than (Jimmy) Garoppolo,” a veteran coordinator said. “When Kansas City was down this season, it was when Mahomes was hurt. He is healthy, and with their weapons, it makes it hard, because he can use his feet, he can throw it, he has speed at receiver, the tight end is good. You can’t stop them because he extends plays.”

This Chiefs’ offense stands in contrast to the offense Reid brought to the Super Bowl as Philadelphia Eagles coach following the 2004 season. Back then, Reid’s No. 1 receiver, Terrell Owens, was running on a broken ankle. Todd Pinkston, Greg Lewis and Freddie Mitchell were his other wideouts (none caught more than 36 passes during the regular season). Chad Lewis and L.J. Smith were the tight ends. The Eagles nearly pulled out a victory over New England, but fell, 24-21.

Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman are the top wideouts for Reid this time. Travis Kelce is the tight end. And Mahomes is obviously an upgrade over just about any quarterback, including former Eagles starter Donovan McNabb.

“I love San Francisco’s pass-rush, but it is really hard to pick against Andy Reid with that offense because he can play from even, in front or from behind,” a defensive coach said. “You have an MVP quarterback with a head coach play-caller and (coordinator Eric) Bieniemy who allow him to play. When you have a machine like Mahomes, it really doesn’t run right in a 25 mile-per-hour zone. You gotta let him do what he has to do. They do that.”

Indeed, the Chiefs attempted 20 passes and had only three rushes by running backs in the first half of their victory over the Titans.

“Run game?” the defensive coach asked. “Their run game is Andy Reid saying, ‘Eric, can you pick a run? I have so many passes I need to call, I need a moment.’”

The Chiefs have overcome 24-0 and 17-7 first-half deficits in their playoff games against Houston and Tennessee, respectively. The 49ers would seem plenty capable of putting the Chiefs in a similar predicament, except ‘predicament’ might not be quite the correct word, for sometimes it’s difficult to tell whether Kansas City has been forced to pass or is proceeding of its own accord.

The Chiefs were the pass-happiest team in the NFL by several measures this season, including one that seems to capture intent: Kansas City executed pass plays 65 percent of the time on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before time and score differential influence tendencies more overtly. That 65 percent rate led the league. It was well above the 50 percent average for all teams this season, and far higher than the Chiefs’ 52 percent rate from 2013-17, when Alex Smith was their quarterback.

Mahomes has eight scoring passes without an interception in two playoff games, albeit against defenses without the pass-rush prowess San Francisco can harness. The 49ers embarrassed Aaron Rodgers and the Packers twice this season (37-8 in Week 12 of the regular season and 37-20 in Sunday night’s NFC title game). They have won shootouts (48-46 at New Orleans) and held their own in slugfests (falling 20-17 at Baltimore). Unlike most Chiefs opponents, the 49ers might be equal or even better in the offensive play calling department.

“These are unique callers as well as game planners, because the menu of plays they pick are really, really good,” the defensive coach said. “Case in point, Kyle Shanahan. Third-and-8, (Packers defensive coordinator Mike) Pettine is on the books for playing a junk front that is pure pass-rush, Kyle runs the trap, 36 yards, the guy is touched by only one defender, touchdown. People just don’t do that stuff. That is very high-end, elite offensive play-calling.”

This specific touchdown marked the fifth time over the past five seasons an NFL running back has scored on a rushing play when facing third-and-8 or longer.

The offensive coach said Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense “hides” a so-so defense that San Francisco should be able to exploit. This coach thought Kansas City would hit on enough big plays to win, figuring Mahomes’ mobility would serve him well if the 49ers rushed four, leading to opportunities for completions against zone coverage. If the 49ers blitz and play man coverage, the coach thought the Chiefs’ speed would create mismatches.

We’ll take a closer look at the game as the Super Bowl draws near.

2. The Packers reached the NFC Championship Game in their first season under coach Matt LaFleur. Here’s what this game and season revealed about them.
There were plenty of times during the regular season when Aaron Rodgers played better than the offensive stats suggested, according to coaches who have studied Green Bay’s offense at the play level. The reverse was true Sunday as Rodgers produced impressive stats while delivering a performance one coach called “the worst of Rodgers.” The quarterback completed 31 of 39 passes for 326 yards and two touchdowns, averaging a healthy 0.3 expected points added (EPA) per pass attempt (Baltimore led the NFL at 0.29 for the season). But time after time against the 49ers, Rodgers put the Packers in compromising situations.

“San Francisco had a lot to do with it,” a veteran coach said, “but this was the worst of Rodgers. I would have liked to have seen him not panic and start running around in the pocket and throwing everything off schedule. The illegal man downfield on a screen is his fault because he is backpedaling and creating bad timing. He made no effort to recover that fumble. The interception up the seam, that is San Francisco’s base coverage, and he misthrows it, and there is no miscommunication, no conversion on that route — it’s on him. It was like he played scared, which ruins the whole game.”

The Packers need to upgrade their offensive weaponry in the receiving game. Rodgers trusts Davante Adams, who he has played with the longest, but there were multiple times in the playoffs Rodgers held the ball when Adams was covered instead of targeting other players who were open.

From a coaching standpoint, LaFleur did not seem to have much new material for a 49ers defense that held Green Bay to 2.8 yards per play in Week 12, the second-worst average for the Packers with Rodgers starting. The average was 3.7 yards per play for Green Bay during the first half Sunday as the Packers fell behind 27-0. Before the game, a defensive coach said Green Bay would need draws, traps and wham plays to neutralize the 49ers’ pass-rush. The Patriots have been very good at those plays over the years, as has Baltimore, with Greg Roman coordinating the Ravens’ offense. On Sunday, it was the 49ers who hit on an epic trap play for that 36-yard touchdown by Raheem Mostert on third-and-8.

On the defensive side, Pettine could not find answers for the 49ers’ rushing attack, a problem for the Packers at various points this season. Green Bay lost to a team that rushed for 285 yards and attempted eight passes.

“You just gotta know how you can separate their defense,” an offensive coach said of the Packers. “They try to pressure off the edges, keep everything contained, turn you back into the inside guys, and if you can separate them, you can create some issues. If you can block down on the ‘3’ (technique defensive tackle) and get those two big guys on the edge outside and cut them with a misdirection coming back to them, it gives them problems.”

It’s a simple offseason checklist for the Packers. Improve the offensive weaponry in the passing game. Add wrinkles to the offensive playbook and show greater ability to find weak spots in the defense. Become sounder on defense.

3. The 49ers’ Jed York suddenly is keeping some elite company.
York’s mother, Denise, is the 49ers’ principal owner, but York became the de-facto owner at the end of the 2008 season when his parents made him the lead decision-maker. York earned ridicule at times as a young exec lacking experience, but now, at age 39, he has led his organization to multiple Super Bowls with different head coaches and different quarterbacks, joining a mostly elite ownership group that also features his Hall of Fame uncle, Eddie DeBartolo.

The Jim Harbaugh/Colin Kaepernick 49ers reached the Super Bowl following the 2012 season, losing to Baltimore. San Francisco went through some painful years subsequently as York hired Jim Tomsula and then Chip Kelly as his head coaches. The 49ers from 2014 through 2018 posted a 25-55 record for a .313 winning percentage that ranked 31st, ahead of only the Cleveland Browns.

The Chiefs took a more incremental path. They hired Reid in 2013, acquired Alex Smith to stabilize the quarterback position, acquired Mahomes to put them over the top and arrived right on schedule. They own the NFL’s second-best winning percentage (.688) behind New England (.768) since Reid arrived.

York drew funny looks in 2017 for hiring Shanahan and general manager John Lynch to six-year contracts, pulling Lynch out of the Fox broadcast booth even though the former Pro Bowl safety had zero front-office experience. But here they are, three years later, playing in the Super Bowl.

The list of other owners to reach multiple Super Bowls with different head coaches and quarterbacks includes DeBartolo (49ers), Jack Kent Cooke (Washington Redskins), Paul Allen (Seattle Seahawks), Dan Rooney (Pittsburgh Steelers), Paul Brown (Cincinnati Bengals), Jeffrey Lurie (Philadelphia Eagles), Robert Kraft (New England Patriots), Pat Bowlen (Denver Broncos), Virginia McCaskey (Chicago Bears), Jerry Richardson (Carolina Panthers), Steve Bisciotti (Baltimore Ravens), Al Davis (Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders) and Georgia Frontiere (Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams).

4. Some 49ers will probably say no one gave them a shot at reaching the Super Bowl this season. They’ll get no argument here.
The Chiefs were my preseason pick for the Super Bowl partly because New England appeared to be in transition on both sides of the ball. Minnesota was my pick from the NFC because I thought the Vikings would have a top-five defense and an offense that would benefit from continuity and more under-center concepts on early downs. The Vikings checked some of those boxes, but the 49ers did so even more completely.

San Francisco was easy to discount because Garoppolo had never made it through a full season healthy. While many thought there’d be growth (they were the biggest risers in The Athletic’s Preseason Power Rankings, from No. 29 at the end of their 4-12 2018 season to No. 19 in July), few expected the growth to be this rapid. The NFC West also figured to be tough with the Rams coming off a Super Bowl and Seattle always competitive with Russell Wilson at quarterback. Preseason oddsmakers gave 15 other NFL teams shorter odds than the 49ers for reaching the Super Bowl. A play here and a call there helped San Francisco secure the NFC’s first seed instead of the fifth seed. That outcome seemed appropriate based on how San Francisco played for most of the season, but so many things must fall right for even the top teams to make it.

The NFC West has now represented the conference five times in a span of eight Super Bowls. The Seahawks are the only team from the division to win it all during that stretch. The 49ers will try to join them against Kansas City.

5. The Titans fared better than just about anyone expected this season. Looming contract decisions involving quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry await. Below we consider big-picture thoughts before drilling down on Tannehill specifically, with an eye toward a couple of historical comparisons.
The Titans failed to exceed seven points in three games during their 2-4 start with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. They were only two games behind Houston in the AFC South at that point, but their trajectory entering Week 7 suggested this would be a lost season for Tennessee. The Titans’ reversal with Tannehill in the lineup and Henry gaining momentum has created delicate contract dilemmas. The team will want to keep them, but general manager Jon Robinson also must be wary of performance regression. Tannehill and Henry have not played at superstar levels in the past. They might not in the future.

“You can’t ignore the success that Tannehill has had, but you don’t make the mistake of doing a long-term deal,” an exec from another team said. “You franchise him and transition Henry. The tricky part is if there comes a new CBA and you only get one tag. Then you might tell Derrick Henry to go to the market and hope that he wants to return and pay what is there.”

Tennessee can study historical comparisons to better analyze these situations. Two interesting comps come to mind for Tannehill: Alex Smith following his 2011 season with the 49ers, and then, more from a team standpoint, Chad Pennington during his 2002 season with the New York Jets.

Smith, playing in a new offensive system under Harbaugh and coordinator Greg Roman, led a league-high five fourth-quarter comeback victories for a 13-3 team that reached the NFC Championship Game. Like Tannehill, Smith was a first-round pick who had struggled amid coaching turnover and missed one entire season to injury. Smith, like Tannehill this season, played more efficiently in 2011 than he had before. The fit finally seemed right. San Francisco had a fearsome defense, strong offensive line and robust ground game with an improved scheme.

Harbaugh had called Smith “elite” during the regular season, but San Francisco let the 2005 No. 1 overall pick reach free agency after the season. With the quarterback market revolving around Peyton Manning’s free agency at the time, the 49ers re-signed Smith to a three-year deal with an $8 million average that ranked 20th among quarterbacks heading into the 2012 season. That is where the Smith-Tannehill comp breaks down. Tannehill enjoyed more success than Smith early in his career, earning a contract extension from the Dolphins following a solid 2014 season. The $8 million average Smith secured in 2012 scales to $13.2 million as a percentage of the projected 2020 cap. Tannehill could conceivably command double that in the current quarterback market.

“Tannehill will get a better deal than Smith got even if you adjust the cap dollars,” another team exec said. “If you are the Titans and you (franchise) tag him, in my opinion, you are saying it is a one-year deal and you are not going to extend him. If you do a deal, you’ve gotta be in the low $20 millions. Let’s say you do a three-year deal like that and say, ‘We are going to continue to build around you and if you are as good as you say, we are going to extend your contract again.’ Ryan has to decide whether he wants to get as much as he can or whether he wants to reshape his legacy.”

Pennington was in a different situation back in 2002, but his production and the Jets’ late-season rally mirrored the Titans’ experience with Tannehill.

The Jets had selected Pennington 18th overall in the 2000 draft and used him sparingly over his first two-plus seasons. Veteran Vinny Testaverde opened the 2002 season as the starter and posted a 1-4 record before coach Herm Edwards turned to his young third-year passer. Pennington, like Tannehill this season, led the league in passer rating while saving the season. He tossed seven touchdowns with no interceptions over the season’s final two weeks as the Jets defeated Tom Brady’s defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots and Brett Favre’s Green Bay Packers. Pennington tossed three more scoring passes during a 41-0 wild-card victory over Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts. The Jets then lost at Oakland in the divisional round.

Tannehill has helped the Titans beat a similar lineup of heavyweight quarterbacks, including Brady in the wild-card round and MVP Lamar Jackson last week. As the table shows, the season-long stats comparison for Tannehill and Pennington are strikingly similar. Pennington signed a seven-year, $64.2 million extension during the 2004 season, but injuries slowed him. The Titans have less time to decide on Tannehill.

6. Derrick Henry’s situation brings to mind several strong comps since the NFL adopted a 16-game schedule in 1978. The comps suggest Tennessee might expect two more strong seasons from Henry.
Henry is among 21 players in the 16-game schedule era to rush for at least 1,400 yards in their fourth seasons. Four of the others — DeMarco Murray, Ricky Williams, Larry Johnson and Gerald Riggs — were bigger backs (at least 220 pounds) who broke out in their third and fourth seasons after somewhat slower starts to their careers. Those four, like Henry, exceeded 1,000 yards in a season for the first time in Year 3 (Williams had exactly 1,000 in his second season). Like Henry, they posted career-high rushing totals in Year 3 and then topped those figures in Year 4. Their trajectories were rising entering their fifth NFL seasons, but they also had peaked.

Have the Titans seen the best from Henry? He has fewer career touches through four seasons (861) than those other four backs had to the same points in their careers. Williams (1,376), Murray (1,105), Riggs (1,043) and Johnson (989) could have had more wear on their bodies. Williams had other issues. He retired following his fifth season, returned for one season, was suspended for a season and then finished his career as a part-time starter. Murray reached free agency following his 1,845-yard breakout season with Dallas. He signed with Philadelphia, was seemingly a bad fit for the Eagles’ offense under Chip Kelly, rebounded with one strong season in Tennessee and was finished a year later, as his 30th birthday neared. Henry took over for him.

GMs would prefer to funnel financial resources toward quarterbacks, pass-rushers, offensive tackles and coverage players. Most would generally agree that running backs are easier to find and ideally would not command top-of-market salaries. Then along comes reality, putting philosophies to the test. The Titans stormed through the playoffs with Henry trampling defenders. Henry set records. The team, along with Titans fans, rallied around him. This coming offseason, players in the locker room will watch to see if the Titans reward one of their top producers. Whatever philosophy Robinson has toward paying running backs will be tested in the context of the locker room, city and a team.

“If you transition tag him, you could end up losing him or tying yourself to a contract you did not do, and I do not think either of those is palatable,” an exec said. “The risk of the second one is far worse, especially for a running back.”

This exec said he’d rather use the franchise tag for Henry than the transition tag, but using no tag at all might be the smart play.

“Yeah, he is important to them, but he is also replaceable and it is a strong running back draft class,” this exec said. “If the question is, ‘At what level would you tag him,’ I would go franchise. There are very few players I would transition tag because the difference is not that great compared to what you would lose if you lost him or had to do a deal that you didn’t want to do.”

Personal experience can come into play in front offices. Robinson, the Titans’ GM since 2016, was with Tampa Bay when the Bucs were thinking through whether to re-sign running back Doug Martin following his 1,402-yard rushing season in 2015. The Buccaneers struck a five-year, $35.75 million deal with Martin, who was 26 years old at the time, the same as Henry is now. Martin carried heightened risks, but he was coming off an especially strong year in his fourth NFL season (Henry had 1,540 yards this season, also his fourth). The move to re-sign Martin, made by the Bucs a couple of months after Robinson left their front office to join the Titans, backfired as injuries continued to hamper the 2012 first-round pick. Martin averaged 2.9 yards per rush in two additional seasons with the Bucs.

Robinson was the Titans’ GM when Murray played out his final two seasons in Tennessee as the starter, ahead of Henry on the depth chart. Watching Murray’s sudden decline in production could play into the decision-making calculus for the Titans as the March 18 start to free agency approaches.