Why the 1.5C global temp limit agreed upon in Paris won’t be met, and why we’re fkd

Existing infrastructure – if operated until the end of its lifetime – commits us to 658 billion tonnes (Gt) CO2 future emissions. That's –

358 Gt from electricity (mainly power plants)
162 from industry
64 from transport, mostly on-road vehicles

— Mark Lynas (@mark_lynas) July 2, 2019

https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/1145977972849033216s=21

According to the IPCC, our remaining 1.5C carbon budget is 420-580 Gt CO2. (To have a 50-66% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C)

What does this mean? It means ALL PLANNED, PERMITTED AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION fossil infrastructure must be CANCELLED. Paging @ExtinctionR !

— Mark Lynas (@mark_lynas) July 2, 2019

Done? OK, so now take the 188 from the 846 – but still leaves 658 Gt of committed emissions. Damn! Still over budget.

Therefore… to have a better than 50:50 chance of meeting the 1.5C goal another 100-200 Gt-equiv of power plants, cars, industry etc MUST BE CLOSED EARLY.

— Mark Lynas (@mark_lynas) July 2, 2019

hhttps://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/1145977981711605760?s=21

Or we ditch the 1.5C target and go for 2C instead. That means:

– 99% of coral reefs extinct
– 65 million more people exposed to deadly heat
– 2x as many plants, 3x animals lose 50% of their habitat as 1.5C
– Arctic sea ice disappears
– 10 million displaced by rising seas

— Mark Lynas (@mark_lynas) July 2, 2019

Here's what we need to do:

– No new coal or gas power plants, anywhere, ever.
– Immediate transition to fully electric transport (no more diesel, petrol)
– Stop all oil/coal/gas exploration (bye bye Shell/BP/Exxon)
– Massive renewables+nuclear deployment
– Decarbonise industry

— Mark Lynas (@mark_lynas) July 2, 2019

But where are we ACTUALLY heading?

– carbon emissions at an all-time high, 37Gt in 2018, 2% annual growth: https://t.co/VdB0K4djSP
– current policies still take us potentially over 4 degrees = climate catastrophehttps://t.co/3AI5DrVuEL pic.twitter.com/UkIh7wisQy

— Mark Lynas (@mark_lynas) July 2, 2019

And if we fail? What does 4 degrees or above mean in terms of climate impacts?

*shudder*

This is a CLIMATE EMERGENCY.

/the end

— Mark Lynas (@mark_lynas) July 2, 2019