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I think the NFL it works this way. Parity is real. But with parity throughout the league, a singular advantage puts you above the parity-driven norm. The clearest and most absolute advantage goes to teams that combine a great head coach, a great qb, and a very solid defense. Which btw would describe the Patz and KC.
That combination is actually hard to get. One of the top 3 or 4 coaches, with one of the top 3 or 4 qbs, with a very solid defense.
With parity in the NFL, what does change year to year is not the super bowl, it’s the playoffs. In the last 3 years 22 teams have made the postseason. 2/3rds of the league in 3 years. If you go back 5 years it’s 29 teams. All but 3.
The longest playoff drought in MLB belongs to the Angels (a Los Angeles team) at 10 years. The NY Jets have a 14-year drought going right now.
I will also point out that the NFL always sent a higher percentage of their teams into the playoffs. Baseball has only recently begun to expand the pool of teams to make the postseason, and I think in the future, baseball fans won’t feel as “locked out” as they do right now. And even given the disparity between the % of teams that make the postseason in their respective leagues, baseball still stacks up favorably to the NFL.
In the past 3 years, 20/30 baseball teams have played in the postseason: 2/3rds. Same as the NFL. If you go back 5 years, it’s 27 teams. All but 3.
That’s certainly comparable. In fact, it’s damn near identical. And, again, baseball shares the World Series trophy more widely than the NFL shares the Lombardi.
, baseball shares the World Series trophy more widely than the NFL shares the Lombardi.
Is there an equivalent in baseball to having a top 3 or 4 coach, plus a top 3 or 4 qb, plus a very solid (top 10 or near it) defense? Because what we see in the NFL is that the teams that have those 3 items dominate the postseason.
They also repeat in the postseason. So for example, after KC had Reid + Mahomes + the Spags defense … and they had all 3 as of 2019 … they won 5 out of 6 conference games and then won 3 out of the 4 super bowls they have played so far.
My bet is that the MLB teams that repeat the most often year after year in the playoffs are the big money teams.
I think what you say is true about coach + QB + Defense. And there is no equivalent in baseball. I was thinking about that yesterday when considering your post. There are some really good managers, sure. The best ones are good tactically – managing substitutions etc. – and in building chemistry in the clubhouse. And defense matters in baseball, especially in the postseason. We saw an example of that this past WS. And because baseball is a series of 1-on-1 matchups, a robbed hit on the one hand, or an inexcusable error on the other can make the difference in a game. I think the closest thing in baseball to a QB is the entire pitching staff. The thing people look for, going into the playoffs, is 3 really solid starters, and a “slam-the-door-shut” closer. Most playoff teams come close to that, but don’t “quite” have that. But baseball being the beast that it is, one team’s pitching staff can have a guy rise up and get hot at just the right time, and there you go. That’s just one of the variables, though, that opens the door wider.
Looking at the long haul, as I said to wv, yeah – I bet the Yankees get a ticket into the playoffs more often than the Pirates. I just think that that margin is a lot smaller than people think it is. And it’s been 25 years since a team won back-to-back.
For example, the Yankees, going back to 2001, have been in the Top 3 spenders every single year, with the exception of 2018, when they had the 7th-highest payroll. They spent the most 14 of those years, 2nd-most 7 of those years, and 3rd-most 2 of those years. They have one championship to show for it.
Here is last year’s salary table. The red arrows denote playoff teams. The blue arrows denote teams that got knocked out in their first round matchup. The Guardians made it to the AL Championship round.
Here is the payroll ranking for each world series champion since 2001.
So having a higher payroll helps, but I don’t think it’s as decisive as the common fan thinks it is. I think it’s another ingredient in the mix, like manager, pitching, and defense. But imo, having a strong farm system is more important than payroll size. It’s the equivalent of hitting on Day 3 draft picks. MLB is absolutely littered with high-spending teams that got nothing in return. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have had one of the most productive farm systems in the league. Good player development.
Maybe if you guys wanted the Pirates to be good, you should have built Los Angeles in Pennsylvania.
But you didn’t think of that, and now you’re crying.
Well, fiddly-i-doo.
We tried that, but other than the lack of parking, something just doesn’t look right.
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