“who R the Rams in 2020” type articles

Rams looking to write their own story in 2020

J.B. Long

https://www.therams.com/news/rams-looking-to-write-own-story-in-2020

I forget at what point I started pocketing predictions about the 2020 Rams, but I’ve been collecting for over a month, now.

Less than a year removed from reigning atop the NFC and being pegged as a favorite to return to the Super Bowl, it’s been jarring to find the perception of the 2020 Rams closer to where Sean McVay found them when he arrived in early 2017: cast as an underdog in their own division.

We’ll get to whether the Rams agree with that assessment in a moment. (Spoiler alert: They don’t.)

But first, I want to underscore that with very few exceptions, the Rams are still widely respected. Various power rankings have them slotted in the top half of the league.

This is largely a reflection of how strong the West has become, and more simplistically, how the division stacked up a year ago.

To my knowledge, no credible pundit has gone so far as to pick the Rams last in 2020. Still, I suspect someone might be bold enough eventually. After all, Patrick Peterson believes his Cardinals are the “best football team (he’s) been a part of on paper.”

But according to the consensus, Los Angeles has been safely ensconced in third for much of the spring, impervious to the tides of the Draft and free agency.

Overlooked is the nuance of the Rams finishing a missed 44-yard field goal away from sweeping Seattle last season, giving the eventual NFC Champions everything they wanted in Week 16 in Santa Clara, and having yet to lose to Arizona under Sean McVay.

Nonetheless, it’s understandable after another April without a first-round selection, plus the departures of recognizable talents like Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Dante Fowler, and Cory Littleton.

“Los Angeles took its shot at a Super Bowl, and the bill is coming due,” goes the prevailing narrative.

The league’s official site concurred, citing “several roster holes and not enough cap space or draft picks to fix everything in one offseason.”

Mix in one of the most challenging schedules in the NFL according to multiple outlets, and there you have it. Los Angeles may still be one of the better teams in football, but they’re looking up at the 49ers and Seahawks until proven otherwise.

Unsurprisingly, the Rams aren’t ready to concede that point, here in late May.

“I don’t really care what the narrative is, I care about the belief I have in our players, our coaches, and how excited I am for us to attack this opportunity and to write our own story,” McVay said this week.

“Our goal and expectation is to prepare to win every single game,” was his reply to whether 2020 might be categorized as a rebuilding year. “We didn’t do what we needed to do last year. I own that. I take full responsibility for it.”

Ask Cooper Kupp about returning to the role of hunter rather than hunted, and he echoes McVay’s sentiments.

“Our expectations haven’t changed; our standards haven’t changed. If anything, they’re continuing to elevate,” the fourth-year receiver said on the Rams Revealed podcast.

There may come a time this fall when a doubting or disparaging word might appear on the proverbial bulletin board. But for now – unlike this writer – Kupp and the Rams don’t seem interested in collecting receipts.

“We judge ourselves within the walls we go to work in,” Kupp said. “…Any narrative that can be created outside of those walls doesn’t matter to us.”

den-the-coach

Overall I believe many of us feel there is reason for optimism in 2020 because the year itself has been the most challenging and in the words of Sonny & Cher “The Beat Goes on.”

Anyway back to the Los Angeles Rams and I do believe the offense should improve because the Offensive Line barring injury, should improve and IMO, the TE’s should make more of an impact as they did towards the end of last season and the changes to the coaching staff appear to be all for the good across the board, so I’m anxious to see how it plays out.

Concerns???? Many.

Pass Rush….I loved Dante Fowler and will miss him, he will make Atlanta’s defense better, so where does the pass rush come from? Players like Ogbonnia “Obo” Okoronkwo, Samson Ebukam, Michael Floyd & even rookie Terrell Lewis need to provide that spark in order to take off pressure of Aaron Donald and put fear into opposing Quarterbacks.

Vertical Congestion…..A WR that can go over the top is something that when the Rams acquired Brandon Cooks, Sean McVay stated “It was a necessity in his offense.” Currently the Rams have route runners & no actual speed WR, will it hamper the offense? Seem to do that when they initially lost Cooks, but McVay adapted and it appears the fastest WR might be on the bench in Nsimba Webster, who ran a 4.4 40.

Inside Linebacker….They did not pay Cory Littleton, let’s hope this is not London Fletcher Part Deux….Rams will look to Micah Kiser again and most likely Travin Howard to fill Littleton’s role, however, I for one hope that Troy Reeder stays on special teams as IMO, seemed very slow in his reactions, but he was a rookie.

Offensive Line….All of us have talked about it, but now we have to hope the regime was right. Staying healthy is the key, but the thought of not bringing back Whitworth, trading for Trent Williams & drafting a Center might make most of us feel confident, however, some are very confident with Whit, Corbett, Blythe, Edwards & Evans over Havenstein, so hopefully this won’t be an issue and they will come together as a unit in 2020.

Special Teams…Not as concerned as I was because as much as I loved John Fassel, John Bonamego has had success and the trio of kickers he’s brought in, I feel very good about one of them being extraordinary and I feel that there is plenty of fine athletes available on the roster to ensure this unit is better in 2020.

from https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2020/06/24/nfl-rams-roster-rank-espn-pff/

ESPN doesn’t see the Rams as having one of the best rosters in football. ESPN used Pro Football Focus’ advanced statistics and grades to rank every roster in the NFL, and the Rams came in at No. 22.

Aaron Donald and the pass rush was highlighted as the team’s biggest strength, while L..A.’s inexperienced linebacker unit was named its biggest weakness. The X-factor is the offensive line, given the importance of it and the struggles it endured last year.

X factor for 2020: The Rams’ offensive line went from a strength in 2018 to one of the lowest-graded units in the NFL this past season. Yes, there were injuries that played a role, but Rob Havenstein’s play fell off a cliff (50.9 overall grade in 2019) and the losses of starters Rodger Saffold and John Sullivan played a big role, too. With how reliant quarterback Jared Goff has been on being able to operate from a clean pocket early in his career, they’ll need major improvements from the group up front if they hope to compete in a competitive NFC West.

from PFF: Best- and worst-case scenarios for every NFL team ahead of the 2020 season

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-best-worse-case-scenarios-every-afc-team-2020-season#NFC%20West

LOS ANGELES RAMS
10th percentile outcome: 6-10
How they get there: The offensive line remains a real problem for Jared Goff and this offense. Given Goff’s stark splits when it comes to working from a clean pocket versus working under pressure, along with Sean McVay’s reliance on longer-developing pass plays, a poor offensive line can derail things very quickly — as we saw last year. Coming into this season, the group ranks 25th on PFF’s initial 2020 offensive line rankings. They still have a lot of work to do if they want to show that they’re closer to the group we saw in 2018 than the one we saw in 2019.

On defense, Aaron Donald can only do so much on his own, and Los Angeles’ young, unproven linebackers get tested early and often.

90th percentile outcome: 11-5
How they get there: The offensive line getting healthy and improvements from guys such as Rob Havenstein creates a more stable offensive environment for Goff. As we saw in 2018, particularly early that year, Goff can look like one of the better quarterbacks in the league when he has clean pockets to work from.

Even with the loss of Brandin Cooks, there are still guys he can get the ball to. Robert Woods is one of the more underappreciated wide receivers in the NFL, and Cooper Kupp has been one of the league’s most effective slot receivers over the past several years. That step forward on offense, along with a defense that’s highlighted by the star power of Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, is enough to get the Rams back to the playoffs.

2020 NFL Preview: This is the season we find out about Sean McVay, Jared Goff and Rams in general

Frank Schwab

https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nfl-preview-this-is-the-season-we-find-out-about-sean-mc-vay-jared-goff-and-rams-in-general-130022520.html

When Greg Zuerlein nailed a 57-yard field goal in overtime at the Superdome on Jan. 20, 2019, the Los Angeles Rams were on top of the world.

They were headed to the Super Bowl. Jared Goff had just been named to his second Pro Bowl and was a few months away from a four-year, $134 million deal. Sean McVay had validated his hype as the NFL’s next great coach. Teams would scramble to hire coaches with even a remote connection to McVay, and brag about it in announcing the hires. You could have talked yourself into the Rams being the NFL’s next dynasty.

The thought that we’d go into the 2020 season questioning Goff, McVay and the Rams’ approach in general wasn’t on anyone’s mind. The NFL moves fast.

The Super Bowl was a rough one. Goff struggled badly. McVay was thoroughly outcoached by Bill Belichick and then-New England Patriots defensive coordinator Brian Flores. He immediately acknowledged it. The Patriots won an ugly game. Then, the Rams missed the playoffs in 2019 and had an offseason of reckoning. Many key veterans are gone, including running back Todd Gurley. Even Zuerlein, whose clutch kick at New Orleans was as true as could be, left in free agency.

The last year-plus since that Super Bowl loss revealed some cracks. McVay’s offense, overly reliant on three-receiver sets and play-action passes, was exposed a bit. Goff didn’t look anything like a $134 million quarterback and didn’t make another Pro Bowl. Not even close. The Rams went from a team that was lauded for aggressively pursuing a championship to one that looked impulsive and mismanaged. We’d rip any other team for some of the moves the Rams have botched.

The Rams haven’t made a first-round pick since Goff in 2016. They’ve traded those picks for big-name players, but there’s a reason teams avoid that method of roster building. Those stars need contract extensions. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is soon to be the latest to get a massive contract, and the Rams have no leverage after trading a ton for him. Brandin Cooks did get a big extension after the Rams traded a first for him, and then he was traded to the Houston Texans with an NFL-record $21.8 million dead cap hit left behind. Gurley was cut two years into his four-year, $60 million deal (which was questioned at the time due to how often running back contract extensions fail), and then he and Clay Matthews openly complained the Rams were stalling in paying them guaranteed money they were owed. These moves aren’t indicative of a franchise that has any long-term plan.

And to think, that day at the Superdome was only about 18 months ago.

We’ve seen McVay and Goff rise and then fall together, and 2020 seems like a crossroads for them and the Rams. McVay started to morph his scheme, going to two-tight end sets 21 percent of the time last season, according to SharpFootballStats.com. The Rams used three receivers 89 percent of the time in 2018. Goff is probably due some positive touchdown regression after falling from 32 to 22 last season. He probably isn’t a quarterback who can carry a team, but he’s probably not as bad as he was last year.

It will be a challenge to bounce back. Key veterans are gone. The offensive line has become an issue, and the Rams haven’t had the cap space or draft picks to replenish it. The Rams are still looking for someone to take Gurley’s place, and have spent valuable draft picks two straight years on the position. This isn’t the loaded Rams roster that made the Super Bowl two seasons ago.

The Rams need their coach and quarterback to make up for those deficiencies. And we ask a question that seemed ludicrous that afternoon in the Superdome a year and a half ago: Do the Rams have the right pieces in those key places? We might find out this season.

Here’s a list of the key players who the Rams won’t have back in 2020: edge rushers Dante Fowler and Clay Matthews, safety Eric Weddle, cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman, linebacker Cory Littleton, running back Todd Gurley, receiver Brandin Cooks and kicker Greg Zuerlein. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips was let go, too. The Rams did re-sign left tackle Andrew Whitworth, but there is some risk in a player who will turn 39 during the season. They also signed former Bears first-round pick Leonard Floyd to rush the passer, but he’s not as good as Fowler. The Rams didn’t have a first-round pick as usual and used their first second-round pick on running back Cam Akers, a questionable allocation of limited resources. Running back is usually a luxury pick that high, and the Rams have holes to fill (linebacker and offensive line primary among them). There’s no way around it: This was a rough offseason.

GRADE: D

Jared Goff’s biggest issue last season was that the Rams’ play-action game evaporated. A staple of Sean McVay’s offense, the Rams still used play action a lot last season but with far less success.

Goff ranked 23rd of 24th qualified passers in passer rating on play-action plays last season, according to Pro Football Focus. In 2017 and 2018, Goff led the NFL in passing yards on play-action passes and was sixth in the league in passer rating on those plays.

Goff used play action on the third-highest rate among quarterbacks last season (32.8 percent) but his rating on those plays fell from 109.3 in 2017 and 115 in 2018 to 85.9 last season. So the Rams were using play action as much as anyone in football, and Goff was 25-30 passer rating points worse at it. That’s a problem.

Although analysts have shown there is little correlation between a strong running game and success on play action, Los Angeles’ running game taking a big step back probably didn’t help. Also, opposing defenses seemed to have adjusted. That might have started late in the 2018 season, when the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions each took away the Rams’ outside zone runs and neutralized the play-action passes in the process. Either that trend turns back around and the Rams become a successful play-action team again, or Goff will have to figure out how to make up for that lost production.

Aaron Donald had a little more “normal” season in 2019. His 2018, when he set a record for a defensive tackle with 20.5 sacks and also had 41 quarterback hits, is one of the greatest seasons ever for a defensive player. In 2019, Donald was still great — 12.5 sacks, 24 quarterback hits, the No. 1-graded interior defender in the NFL by Pro Football Focus for the fifth consecutive year — but he just wasn’t superhuman. The Rams lost a lot on defense this offseason, but they still have the best defensive player in the game.

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Tyler Higbee had four straight 100-yard games at the end of 2019. Baseball analyst Bill James would call this signature significance — the magnitude of that performance is enough that we can overlook a smallish sample. Higbee looks like a full-season breakout waiting to happen, as the Rams likely change the shape of their offense (remember how eagerly they discarded Brandin Cooks). The market has been proactive with Higbee, but I am still comfortable drafting him as one of the top 6-8 tight ends.”

Cooper Kupp was a monster in the first half last season, posting a 58-792-5 line. Then in the second half, that dropped to 36-369-5. The Rams’ offense changed, and so did Kupp’s role. The Rams started using more two-tight end sets and that moved Kupp out of the slot. Kupp saw a target on 30.3 percent of his snaps from the slot in the first half, which led the NFL by a wide margin, according to Pro Football Focus. That dropped to 21 percent in the second half. Kupp’s percentage of snaps from the slot fell from 74.1 to 59.7. Kupp is a slot receiver and one of the best in the game, but if the Rams’ offense continues to move away from using so many three-receiver sets — tight end Tyler Higbee’s late breakout might ensure that — that means fewer slot snaps for Kupp and presumably less production.

Can the Rams run the ball?

The Rams were a top-10 running team in every major category in 2017 and 2018. In 2019, they were 26th in rushing yards and 27th in yards per attempt. Some of that falloff was game-script related — the Rams went 24-8 in 2017 and 2018 and were often running to protect leads — but the efficiency wasn’t there either. Todd Gurley was a shell of his old self. The Rams drafted Darrell Henderson in the third round last year, and he did very little. The Rams seemed to give up on Henderson when they picked Cam Akers in he second round this year. Akers is a good talent, but a significant investment in running back seemed odd with the Rams’ other questions. In a perfect world, Akers is Gurley 2.0 and he reinvigorates the run game and that assists play-action passing. That could help the Rams’ offense return to 2017 and 2018 levels.

The Rams weren’t a bad team last year. They went 9-7 against the toughest schedule in the NFL last season, according to Football Outsiders. They weren’t egregiously poor in any area, aside from rushing offense. If Sean McVay can reinvent the offense, Jared Goff returns to his 2017-18 form and Cam Akers (or someone) gives the run game a punch, the Rams could be in the playoffs again. There were a lot of defections this offseason but still enough front-line talent to be a quality team.

The Rams lost a lot of important players and because they don’t have much cap flexibility, they didn’t add too much. They play in perhaps the toughest division in the NFL, so there won’t be many easy weeks. If Sean McVay is as good of a coach as advertised — and he probably is — then he’ll use the offseason to reinvent his scheme that opponents have caught up to a bit. But what if it doesn’t happen? What if McVay and Jared Goff struggle again? It would feel crushing to realize the Rams’ window to be a contender was that small.

We never think good teams will fall off right away. It’s inconceivable to us that the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers or another promising team from 2019 will become mediocre overnight. But unless you’re the New England Patriots, it happens all the time. The Rams took a shot and were tied halfway through the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl. Any team would take that scenario. However, it came at a price. The Rams’ sudden success under Sean McVay obscured some poor moves with contracts and trades. Now that the success has waned, we’ll see the Rams take another small step back, as that NFC championship becomes more of a distant memory.

Will the #Rams rebound from a disappointing 2019 season and make the playoffs in 2020? @PFF_George on @NFLTotalAccess pic.twitter.com/appeW6xQqd

— PFF (@PFF) July 17, 2020

from https://theathletic.com/1956746/2020/07/29/ten-things-a-football-nerds-guide-to-the-2020-los-angeles-rams/

One way to gauge whether a team is pass heavy or run heavy is to look at what it does on early downs when games are still competitive. The Rams were more pass-heavy last year than all but three teams.

And that was mostly in line with what we saw the previous two seasons. In 2017, the Rams ranked fourth in pass frequency on early downs. In 2018, they were 13th.

McVay’s decision to be pass-heavy last season was the right one. The Rams ranked 11th in EPA per dropback on early downs and 27th in EPA per rush.

==

The Rams ranked 10th against the run last year. Football Outsiders uses a metric called adjusted line yards to measure defensive line play against the run, and Los Angeles was 16th.

In a strange quirk, the Rams struggled to stop the run when they were in nickel, but they were outstanding in dime.

The Rams need to get their linebacker situation figured out, but given the investment they made in their defensive line, they should have a solid run defense in 2020.

The Rams did an excellent job out of dime last season. They struggled when facing 12 personnel.

Opponents produced an explosive play (20 yards or more) on just 7.3 percent of their dropbacks against the Rams. Only three teams were better.

Are the Rams playoff contenders? Five questions with Football Outsiders

https://www.si.com/nfl/rams/news/los-angeles-rams-postseason-contenders

Vincent Verhei, an assistant editor for Football Outsiders was gracious enough to talk to Sports Illustrated and answer specific questions about the Los Angeles Rams prospects in the upcoming season.

Football Outsiders is a stat-based web site created by Aaron Schatz dedicated to providing football-specific information on the NFL. The analytics web site just published their annual Football Almanac, which provides a wealth of detailed breakdowns like personnel trends and running success rates on each team in the league.

If you haven’t picked up one up already, it’s recommended reading in order to prepare for the upcoming season. You can find out more information on how to purchase this year’s almanac here.

Verhei wrote this year’s Rams chapter for the almanac.

The following are five questions I asked Verhei after reading over this year’s chapter:

Williams: This year’s Football Outsiders almanac has the Rams at an 8.4-win projection with a 48 percent chance of making the playoffs. This prediction seems more bullish than other analytics publications on the Rams bouncing back from last year’s slide. What’s your reasoning for L.A. being considered a potential playoff team?

Verhei: The biggest reason is that the Rams were a Super Bowl-caliber team in two of the past three years. They were second in our efficiency rankings in both 2017 and 2018 before falling to 12th last year. Our computers see a pattern like that and assume that last year was the anomaly, and they’re likely to bounce back to their prior levels. That rebound ends up balancing out with the personnel losses and so the projection puts the Rams about where they were last year. Remember, they were very close to being a playoff team anyway, and probably would have won at least a wild-card berth if they played in the AFC. This year, they get a very soft schedule, getting to play the AFC East and NFC East. That should help them win a wild-card spot even if they don’t win the NFC West.

Williams: According to your report, the Rams were in base defense 34 percent of the time (No. 3 in the NFL) in 2019. And as you note, the Rams’ blitz percentage increased from 20.5 percent in 2018 to 27.7 percent in 2019. The Rams were up-and-down defensively last season, which led to a parting of ways from longtime NFL defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. How do you see L.A. changing defensively with the addition of first-year defensive coordinator and Vic Fangio protégé Brandon Staley? Also, what does it mean for frontline players like Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey?

Verhei: A couple of stats about Fangio’s defenses stick out as meaningful for the Rams. One, even though he uses a base 3-4, he tends to get a lot of sacks out of his defensive ends — Akiem Hicks in Chicago, and Shelby Harris and Derek Wolfe last year in Denver. That could be good news for Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald.

Two, he doesn’t like big blitzes — his defenses have ranked 25th or lower in blitzes with six pass-rushers or more in each of the past three seasons. (They have been about average in frequency of five-man blitzes.) Three, he really likes nickel formations, ranking in the top ten in use of five-DB sets for three years in a row. He hasn’t used dime formations very much, but that could change in 2020 given the dire state of L.A.’s linebackers.

Williams: The Rams have run 11 personnel (1 RB, 1TE, 3 WRs) the most of any team over the last three seasons during the Sean McVay era. However, as you note, from Week 10 on the Rams more than doubled their use of 12 (1 RB, 2TEs, 2 WRs) or 13 (1 RB, 3TEs, 1WR) personnel formations to 31.6 percent of plays – up from 14.3 percent in the first eight games. With two talented tight ends in Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett at the team’s disposal, do you see the Rams using more two-TE sets this year?

Verhei: I think McVay in his heart wants to use 11 personnel, and that’s why they drafted Van Jefferson in the second round when they had more obvious needs on the offensive line and at linebacker. That said, Higbee’s breakout gives them more flexibility than the Rams have had in the past. You might see them go three-wide all day against a defense like Seattle Seahawks that love to use base personnel, then go with two tight ends against a dime-heavy scheme like the New England Patriots.

Williams: By most QB statistics, Jared Goff regressed in 2019. But with $110 million in guaranteed money left on his deal, Goff isn’t going anywhere. Looking at stats from previous seasons, how does McVay get Goff to play like he did the first two years in his offense?

Verhei: Goff needs better protection. The Rams were 12th or better in pressure rate allowed in both 2017 and 2018, but fell to 22nd last year. That need to prevent pressure is especially true given that Goff has historically suffered a greater drop-off in performance when under pressure than most quarterbacks.

Williams: The Rams averaged 3.7 yards per carry on first down runs last year, No. 28 in the NFL last season. How can the addition of rookie Cam Akers help L.A. improve in that statistic?

Verhei: Akers has a rare combination of size and speed, running a 4.47s 40 at the combine at 212 pounds. That gave him the third-best speed score (40-yard time, adjusted for weight) of any running back at the combine, behind Jonathan Taylor and AJ Dillon. However, he didn’t get a lot of big runs at Florida State, only averaging 4.9 yards per carry; that’s a good number in the NFL, but pretty lousy in the ACC. He figures to make his biggest impact as a rookie in the passing game — he caught 69 passes in his Seminoles career.

I saw this comment on the net: “We’re too weak up front on both sides of the ball and weak in the middle on D. That doesn’t equate into a playoff team IMO…”

That’s a common view. The remark is nothing special and it doesn’t matter who made it. But I just use it here as a jumping off point to offer the more optimistic view.

So. It may turn out to be that way…that they are weak in the front 7 and the OL. I mean, it’s possible. But there’s no way to know that now. Because the real condition with the front 7 and OL is that they have unknowns. Unknowns can just as easily, near as we can tell now, go the other way too.

Granted they have to get over the covid-19 limitations that make this season different, but all teams have to do that, so it’s an even playing field when it comes to that.

Does having a new D coordinator put them at a disadvantage? I dunno, having a new O coordinator in 99 didn’t. Not of course that that’s a guarantee but…it’s not unheard of for a new coordinator to do well right out of the gate. So we’ll see…but the D seems especially responsive to Staley. Unusually so, actually.

Does having unknowns at ILB put them at a disadvantage? It might. But then Fletcher worked out okay in 99, his first year starting, so it’s not like it’s inevitable that they will play poorly or be weak. It might go that way…but then they have a very interesting stock of candidates. They are lower picks and UDFAs, but then the 99 LB corps included 2 UDFAs so…it’s not automatic that they will play poorly.

Have Fangio’s recent defenses relied on high picks and “name brand known to fans” type ILBs? No. Looking at Fangio’s Chicago defenses from 2015-2018, they were ranked 14th, 15th, 10th, and 3rd.The Chicago D in 2014, before Fangio, was ranked 30th…in contrast, last year’s Rams D ranked 13th and that’s with all their issues, so they have a head start on what the Bears were in 2014. In the process of upgrading the Chicago D, their ILBs included a 2012 1st rounder who did okay (nothing special) who left after a year, but also included across 4 years 2 UDFAs and a 6th rounder (they added Roquan Smith in the first round in 2018.)

Plus of course they will be in nickel and dime packages more than in the base 3/4 anyway.

The OLBs? Also unknowns, though less so than the ILBs. The Fangio Chicago D, before getting Mack, had 35 sacks, then 37, then 42. In those 3 years before Mack only 3 Bears OLBs had more than 5 sacks–McPhee (5th rounder) had 6 in 2015, Floyd had 7 in 2016, Young (7th rounder) had 7 in 2016. So they had solid production on defense without stand-out pass rushing OLBs. The Rams have AT LEAST the potential to replicate that, and have the potential to be better than that.

Is the Rams DL “weak”? No. Listen to Farr praise Brockers for being an every down type big guy who does the dirty work. Joseph-Day is not a pass rusher but he is solid on the nose and of course Gaines is developing. You put Donald in that mix and they look solid, and that’s before Robinson comes back.

The OL. It’s obvious why guys are worried about that OL, but it’s not an automatic write-off. It includes 3 2nd rounders (ie. originally 2nd rounders not Rams 2nd round picks except 1 of them). They have 7 additions starting in 2018 (Noteboom, Allen, Demby, Evans, Edwards, Corbett, Ancrhum)…and 2 of those look like steals (Edwards and Anchrum). Only one of them looks bad (Demby). The others are developing and have experience (with the caveat that Noteboom does not look suited to play guard, but then they have 4 guys ahead of him at guard…and he does look suited to play LOT). Their coach has a long record of developing low round picks and cast offs (Kromer’s 2009 Saints superbowl OL consisted of one 2nd rounder, 2 4ths, and 2 5ths.) The starting LOT for the Bears is a 7th rounder Kromer drafted and developed in 2014 (he was a 2018 pro bowler). Kromer is also the guy who took a fading Incognito in his 11th year, after being out of football, and had him playing the best of his career (with the Bills in 2015 and 2016). He’s not a coach you write off.

So I would not write them off. Besides, they only have to be solid as a unit. Kromer’s OLs going back to the Saints and including the Bears and Bills were always solid or better (his 2009 Saints OL was one of the best in football).

So “unknown” does not automatically mean “weak.” At this point, before we actually see them, “unknown” can mean ANYTHING.

And it’s especially unlikely that 5 unknowns (D coordinator, ILBs, OLBs, DL, OL) will ALL not pan out in the same year. I mean I suppose that could happen, theoretically, but I don’t see it as being at all likely.

They have a D built around 2 stars who complement one another, a very good secondary (best I have seen for the Rams since I started following them), and an OL with a top OL coach and a lot of promising candidates with experience.

Hard to predict but I just see it on the optimistic side. There’s good reasons for that.

It takes all kinds to have a good discussion, and with unknowns like the Rams have it’s just going to lead to discussions where the optimistic and pessimistic views are both pretty prevalent.

from continuity scores: Ranking NFL teams from 1 to 32
https://theathletic.com/1988791/2020/08/14/introducing-continuity-scores-ranking-nfl-teams-from-1-to-32/

How can we measure which teams have the most continuity and which have the least? Below are three key factors.

Coaching: Is the team bringing back the same head coach, offensive play-caller and defensive play-caller?
Quarterback: Does the team have the same starter as last season?
Expected returning snaps: Using The Athletic’s team-by-team 53-man roster projections, we can look at which players are expected back. We can then determine the percentage of expected returning snaps — both on offense and defense — from last season.

17. Los Angeles Rams (78.2)
Their biggest changes are on defense where Sean McVay parted ways with coordinator Wade Phillips. Personnel-wise, the Rams lost linebacker Cory Littleton, safety Eric Weddle, edge rushers Dante Fowler and Clay Matthews, and slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman. They return just 52.3 percent of their defensive snaps, which ranks 28th. Offensively, Los Angeles is counting on improved offensive line play and better injury luck to fix its problems. They let Todd Gurley go and traded Brandin Cooks but are otherwise running it back. The Rams produced an average offense last year but return 87.1 percent of their snaps — third highest.

from predictions: Check out all of our best bets to win divisions and make or miss the playoffs for 2020
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-playoff-odds-picks-buying-steelers-and-rams-after-close-calls-plus-more-staff-predictions/

Here’s the rundown on the staff members making these picks: NFL insider Jason La Canfora; senior writer Pete Prisco; Pick Six Podcast host Will Brinson; staff writers Cody Benjamin, John Breech, Jordan Dajani, Bryan DeArdo, Jared Dubin, Josh Edwards, Jeff Kerr, Tyler Sullivan, Chris Trapasso, Patrik Walker and Ryan Wilson; and editors Brett Anderson, Dan Schneier and R.J. White.

…

NFC West
San Francisco 49ers +100
Seattle Seahawks +225
Los Angeles Rams +450
Arizona Cardinals +700

La Canfora: Seahawks +225. It was a coin flip between San Francisco and Seattle in the NFC West a year ago. I like both teams a lot, but I see a far bigger return on the Seahawks, who have finally given Russ a real cast around him on offense (if the O-line can hold up). They still may add a receiver or pass rusher, too.

White: Rams +450. I expect the 49ers to take a step back this season like most Super Bowl teams do the following year, and that will open the door for the previous Super Bowl runner-up to leapfrog last year’s upstart. The Rams still have an excellent offensive mind at head coach and stars on the defensive side of the ball, and +450 is unbelievable value in this competitive division.

Wilson: Seahawks +225. Russell Wilson is one of the best players in the league, and he routinely dragged the team to wins last season. If OC Brian Schottenheimer is willing to open things up even a little bit (and he hasn’t indicated he will but we remain hopeful), it’s not that hard to envision the Seahawks back as division champs.

…

Make/miss playoffs

NFC West
49ers: Make -360, Miss +280
Seahawks: Make -135, Miss +115
Rams: Make +150, Miss -175
Cardinals: Make +240, Miss -300

Breech: Rams Make +150. Sure, half of Twitter thinks that Sean McVay is overrated, but I’m not buying that. I’m taking the Rams, because McVay has been nothing but reliable since being hired in 2017. During his three seasons in Los Angeles, all he’s done is compile a 33-15 record with four playoff wins and a Super Bowl appearance. Even in his worst season, he still managed to go 9-7, and that would have been good enough to make the playoffs if the 14-team format had been in place in 2019.

Brinson: Rams Make +150. I contemplated the Browns here but the division is really difficult and Cleveland has a new coach and plenty of new parts. The Rams don’t! They have a bunch of carryover from last year, when they won nine games. If Sean McVay can tweak the offense and the offensive line can play better, Los Angeles should be able to get back into the postseason with the expanded playoffs. It’s too nice a price for a team that hasn’t won less than nine games since he arrived.

DeArdo: 49ers Miss +280. The 49ers are trying to avoid joining the list of Super Bowl runner-ups who failed to make the playoffs the following season. It doesn’t help that the 49ers play in arguably the NFL’s toughest division.

Edwards: Rams Make +150. With an expanded playoff format, the wise strategy is to take a calculated risk on a team making the playoffs. The Rams, despite overhauling their coordinators this offseason, have a talented roster and stand out as the plus-odds team with the best chance to advance.

Kerr: Rams Make +150. The Rams’ success hinges on Sean McVay and his ability to adjust after their offense wasn’t as dynamic in the second half of last season. The offensive line is aging, but the return of Cooper Kupp will pay huge dividends for Jared Goff. In a tough NFC West with four teams good enough to make the postseason, why not take a shot on Los Angeles?