what’s wrong, what will get better

Recent Forum Topics Forums The Rams Huddle what’s wrong, what will get better

Viewing 2 posts - 1 through 2 (of 2 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #141624
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    see link above

    Rams second-half predictions: Can they go on a run and get into playoffs?

    INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 09: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams completes a pass against Trevon Diggs #7 of the Dallas Cowboys during an NFL football game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Dallas Cowboys at SoFi Stadium on October 09, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

    THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — Those of you dear readers who have been following along for a few years know that I hate, loathe, detest making predictions. I’m a textbook over-thinker. I squirm out of the question during radio and television hits and even in casual conversation. I avoid making them unless expressly ordered.

    So, anyway, here are five second-half predictions about the Los Angeles Rams:

    1. The Rams win six of their final nine games, and this (astoundingly) snags them a wild-card berth and puts them a mere sliver above .500.

    Because their offensive line is getting healthy into the backstretch of the season, because they’ve finally worked out the issue between head coach Sean McVay and running back Cam Akers, because receiver Van Jefferson has to get his legs (and hands) back under him at some point, there’s no way a McVay-led team misses the playoffs, right? … Right?

    Currently, the Rams have a 22.6 percent shot at the playoffs, according to our model.

    The caveat here is not only the performance of the rest of the NFC, which is still somehow pretty open underneath its leading teams, but also the Rams themselves. Many of the games they’ve lost are attributable to self-inflicted issues and mistakes.

    Sunday, I think the Rams beat the Cardinals. I also think they do it behind backup quarterback John Wolford, who is looking like the likely starter after two consecutive days without practice for Matthew Stafford (concussion protocol). Is it the jolt they need? That’s up to them.

    2. I’ll take the “under” on receiver Cooper Kupp’s beating his 2021 yardage, which helped him earn the rare triple crown. But I’ll take the “over” on catches. Kupp is at 72 catches in nine games this season and had 145 last year. Even if the offense can’t get itself together the rest of the way, Kupp getting the ball is as certain as water is wet.

    3. Cornerback Troy Hill will lead the Rams in interceptions by the end of the season, with four.

    The Rams are playing well on defense — they’re No. 6 in the NFL in defensive points allowed, No. 1 against explosive plays (20-plus yards), No. 8 in plays of 10-plus yards allowed, No. 9 in successful play rate as a defense, and No. 10 in forcing three-and-outs — despite not rushing the passer altogether effectively or taking the ball away consistently (though they may lead the league in dropped picks, at this point).

    But a small adjustment that particularly favors Hill, and may help with takeaways and the pass rush, could pay off big for the Rams defense down the backstretch.

    Now that Hill is off injured reserve, the Rams are starting to move him inside and closer to the line of scrimmage a little more, especially on passing downs. On Sunday, they did it on passing downs alongside Jalen Ramsey in the “Star,” who was playing inside/underneath as well (meaning they had four cornerbacks on the field; two underneath and two on the outside). Why is this important? The defense is built to limit explosive plays, and it is doing that. But quarterbacks are getting the ball out quickly on short throws underneath the defensive “shell,” and that also helps these quarterbacks neutralize a pass rush that’s already struggling to pressure with just four players.

    “I love using those two players because of their skill set,” defensive coordinator Raheem Morris said. “The things that they both can do are unique, Troy being a little bit different than Jalen obviously in size, but very ball-savvy, very aware of what’s going on on the football field at all times. They are smart football players that you can get inside and make big-time plays with.”

    With Hill, who is twitchy in small spaces and is a veteran who has played in this scheme since its initial installation in 2020, the Rams can almost simulate man-type coverage on pass downs underneath their zone scheme. Technically, he’s still in a zone and matching routes, but it looks like he’s pressing quite a bit underneath the “shell.” Hill’s near interception Sunday, in which he matched and then jumped a short route on third-and-2 in the third quarter, was an example of this. If the Rams keep adjusting in this manner (and I think they should), I believe Hill will start holding on to those interceptions.

    If quarterbacks have to account for Hill (and Ramsey at times) underneath, they may hold the ball a little longer. Enter Aaron Donald. But that will also mean the coverage outside the hashes has to be solid, and the shell has to stay intact and disciplined. Otherwise, if the pass rush doesn’t get there, the quarterback can just pop the ball out on a mid- to long-range route outside the hashes. (An example of this was Jimmy Garoppolo’s 56-yard touchdown a couple of weeks ago, when the outside cornerback lost discipline and went after the underneath route.)

    4. The Rams will run a play with defensive lineman Michael Hoecht at fullback this season. It’s super effective, so they don’t run it a second time.

    5. In a tight defensive battle against the Denver Broncos in Week 16 (read: both teams’ offenses stink), the difference-maker in scoring will be a special teams touchdown by the Rams. This will happen in one of three ways:

    • Return specialist Brandon Powell will hide himself, via jersey color, in the end zone and pop out of it at the last second to field a kickoff after a Denver field goal. Russ Yeast will fake the catch as Powell takes the return to the opposite end zone.

    • Punter Riley Dixon will fake a Rams punt and instead throw a touchdown pass to receiver/tight end Jacob Harris. Dixon will run the film back on Monday morning in McVay’s office and implore him to create the NFL’s first-ever “wildcat” package that features a punter.

    • Inside linebacker Bobby Wagner will block another field goal attempt at some point this season, and either he or a teammate scoops the ball up and scores. In the days that follow, an anonymous corporation files a trademark for the phrase “Block-y Wagner.” It’s super lame, but it cashes in on T-shirts, which Wagner markets as he accepts his seventh career All-Pro/ninth career Pro Bowl nominations after sustaining his midseason status as the NFL’s highest-graded inside linebacker.

    #141633
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

Viewing 2 posts - 1 through 2 (of 2 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

Comments are closed.