the value of hurries

Smarter Stats: Sacks don’t tell the whole story of NFL’s best pass rushers

http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/10/22/nfl-week-8-pass-rushing-stats-jj-watt-von-miller-brian-robison

Sacks are overrated. There, we said it.

Last season, Minnesota’s Brian Robison had nine quarterback sacks in 989 total defensive snaps. A decent number, to be sure, but some may have wondered why the Vikings rewarded a player who had never hit double-digit sacks in any of his seven NFL seasons with a five-year, $32.4 million contract extension in 2013. Through seven games of the 2014 campaign, Robison has 0.5 sacks, which would seem to mark a relative failure. But here’s the thing: Robison affects opposing quarterbacks in other ways, and he does so as well as any other defender in the league. In 2013, he led all defensive players in quarterback hurries, according to Pro Football Focus, with 63. And this season, only Cincinnati’s Wallace Gilberry has more hurries (20) than Robison’s 19.

It makes a difference. Hurries affect the timing of pass plays, even if those plays aren’t shut down as they are with sacks. For example, Drew Brees has seven interceptions in 2014, and five of them have come while under pressure. His completion percentage drops from 67.7 percent to 52.4 when he’s pressured, and he’s tied with Houston’s Ryan Fitzpatrick with six plays in which he’s hit as he’s throwing the ball. If you affect the quarterback’s timing, no matter how good he is, the effectiveness of the offense you’re facing will be altered.

Everybody knows that J.J. Watt was the NFL’s most dominant defensive player in 2013, and he’s on pace to be even more amazing in 2014. But Watt’s effectiveness is about more than sacks, batted passes, obvious run stops and other splash plays. Last season, Watt led the league with an amazing 36 quarterback hits in 998 snaps. He had 10.5 sacks, which was seen as a downturn in overall pressure from the 20.5 sacks Watt put up in 2012. But when you factor in those 36 hits and his 38 hurries, Watt’s pressure percentage of 8.4 was actually better than the 7.9 he had the year before, when he finished with 20.5 takedowns, 25 hits and 30 hurries. This season, however… well, he’s playing at an entirely different level, with a 9.8 pressure percentage (five sacks, 22 hits and 19 hurries on 470 snaps). Watt’s perceived value is insane because he can get pressure from any gap and in the face of double-teams, but when you add in the fact that he’s providing some sort of pressure on nearly one in 10 offensive plays — well, that’s not really even human. His five sacks tell so little of the story.

Just because a player doesn’t get all the way to the quarterback doesn’t mean that he isn’t doing his job as a pass-rusher. Conversely, just because he is picking up big sack numbers doesn’t mean that he’s maxing out his defensive efficiency. And things can change from season to season. Consider the case of defensive end Willie Young, who moved from Detroit to Chicago this past offseason when the Bears signed him to a three-year, $9 million contract. It was a major bargain when you consider Young’s numbers in 2013 — yes, he had just three sacks, but he put up eight hits and 48 hurries. This season, only Denver’s Von Miller has more sacks this season than Young’s seven. However, Young’s total pressures are way down — just one hit and six hurries.

Pressure is relative in the NFL, and sacks don’t even come close to telling the whole story.