The problem of the Senate

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  • #92234
    PA Ram
    Participant

    Looking at some new polls this morning, it appears that Cruz and Heller who were in trouble, have rebounded and Cruz has a pretty good lead on O’Rourke at this point. Heller now has a lead. The other Republicans seem to have gotten a bump after Kavanaugh. The Kavanaugh chaos apparently motivated the Republican base. That is a very strong force when motivated. They have a cult like mentality when they feel threatened.

    The Dems are a mix of motivated pure party people who want to win for the “team”, of some progressives holding their noses and voting the lesser of two evils, of minorities when motivated who show up in big numbers and an some young people when motivated who show up in modest numbers.

    But casting more votes nationwide is usually meaningless. Location, location, location. All the states get two Senators and while most of the population is in blue states, the red states get just as much power so in effect the minority controls what happens. The Republicans do not need to win America. They just need to win their states. And they seem to do that. They motivate them. The Dems can’t motivate the apathetic voter who is watching their interests being controlled by a party that is against them. To win these states the Dems must reach those unmotivated, apathetic voter. And that’s hard to do.

    My sister-in-law is a Facebook warrior. She hates Trump. She posts meme after meme against him and complains about how she is being affected by the Republican policies. She has never voted. She won’t vote this time. My wife and I printed out papers, helped her fill them out and all she had to do was mail them. We promised to take her to the polls and help with any questions. She didn’t do it. I think she’s intimidated by the process. I wonder if others feel the same way. Voting doesn’t seem difficult to me but for her it feels that way. She will never vote and I don’t know how to motivate her.

    How many others are out there who feel that way? How many won’t vote because they feel it makes no difference? How many just don’t take the time to follow any of it–who are just turned off by politics?

    Unless the Dems find a way to create their own rabid cult–a force that will show up in the RIGHT places–it won’t matter.

    The protestors can fill Washington D.C. but so what? If they come from blue states, so what? If they don’t vote, so what? It looks good. It’s a lot of noise. But that’s all it is.

    I have come to believe that as bad as a President can be–he isn’t any more damaging than the congress who supports and manages him to their own radical goals.

    Is Trump really any worse than Mitch McConnell? Who is really doing most of the damage? Trump is a disaster–true. But congress is even worse.

    And changing that and changing it in a meaningful way is a huge task–maybe impossible.

    So I fear that it will get worse before or IF it ever gets better. There is no sign that beyond a Presidential election(and that’s uncertain)the majority population can make a difference or really be represented. I see people getting less motivated as they wear down. I see “The Apathy Party” winning. More people will throw their hands up and say, screw it. And the powerful in charge will rig the system further, grabbing even more power. And more people will join the “Apathy” party. Throw in the fact that even if somehow the Dems do get control of congress and the White House by some thin margin, they can’t change the courts. And so any meaningful legislation they pass will be overturned. This is ultimately how they will now kill the ACA. Have a “medicaire for all” dream? Good luck with that. We will be lucky to have medicaire at all.

    And still the cult will show up and vote because in their minds their leaders are saving us from the government.

    Oh–and they’re going to save the babies from abortion and the gun babies from being taken away.

    I will always vote. But I am also becoming a realist to how little that vote will mean in the future.

    The Dems have a another problem as well–their civil war. That continues to this day. That matters more than Trump or the Republicans to some–a more immediate battle. The Republicans simply fall in line. They are built to win.

    I’m not sure what the Democratic party is built for–but I don’t think it’s winning—at least not the war. Maybe some battles. And that isn’t enough.

    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away. " Philip K. Dick

    #92250
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    https://www.salon.com/2018/10/10/north-dakota-ruling-shows-how-supreme-court-could-hurt-democrats-chances-to-retake-senate/

    North Dakota ruling shows how Supreme Court could hurt Democrats’ chances to retake the Senate
    Supreme Court effectively upholds strict voter ID law, jeopardizing Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp’s re-election

    On Wednesday the Supreme Court refused to halt a voter ID law in North Dakota that will effectively disenfranchise thousands of Native Americans, a key constituency of the most vulnerable red-state Democratic senator.

    In April a federal district court order required state officials to accept ballots even if voters’ ID included only a mailing address rather than a specifically residential address. As The Wall Street Journal reports, this effectively thwarted the state’s voter ID law, which by requiring a home address from potential voters disproportionately targeted Native Americans, who are more likely to be homeless. Last month, however, the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals blocked the previous court order, putting the Voter ID law back into effect. To counter this, a group of Native Americans petitioned the Supreme Court to toss out the appeals court order.

    The Supreme Court refused to do so, although Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg wrote a dissent from that decision that was joined by Justice Elena Kagan. Justice Brett Kavanaugh, whose first day on the bench was Tuesday, did not participate in the decision:

    The risk of voter confusion appears severe here because the injunction against requiring residential-address identification was in force during the primary election and because the Secretary of State’s website announced for months the ID requirements as they existed under that injunction. Reasonable voters may well assume that the IDs allowing them to vote in the primary election would remain valid in the general election. If the Eighth Circuit’s stay is not vacated, the risk of disfranchisement is large. The Eighth Circuit observed that voters have a month to “adapt” to the new regime. But that observation overlooks specific fact findings by the District Court:

    (1) 70,000 North Dakota residents — almost 20% of the turnout in a regular quadrennial election — lack a qualifying ID; and (2) approximately 18,000 North Dakota residents also lack supplemental documentation sufficient to permit them to vote without a qualifying ID.

    Because North Dakota is so sparsely populated, “it could be that a couple of hundred votes matter,” Robert Wood, a political-science professor at the University of North Dakota, told The Wall Street Journal. The key election going on in that state is for the United States Senate, with Democratic incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp fending off a challenge from Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer. Although Heitkamp has been one of Trump’s stronger supporters among Democrats in the Senate, she is nevertheless considered vulnerable due to the fact that North Dakota voted heavily for Trump in the general election. Recent polls have found her between 10 points and 12 points behind Cramer.

    Heitkamp recently made news for her willingness to oppose Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court even though another conservative Democrat, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, ultimately supported him. As she explained to CNN in an interview, she made this decision in part by deciding to rewatch Kavanaugh’s testimony with the sound turned off on her television.

    “It’s something I do. We communicate not only with words, but with our body language and demeanor,” Heitkamp explained. “I saw somebody who was very angry, who was very nervous, and I saw rage that a lot of people said, ‘well of course you’re going to see rage he’s being falsely accused,’ but it is at all times you’re to acquit yourself with a demeanor that’s becoming of the court.”

    • This reply was modified 6 years, 1 month ago by JackPMiller.
    #92254
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    Jamil Smith: Watch the Georgia Minority Vote Disappear Before Your Eyes

    Jamil Smith: Watch the Georgia Minority Vote Disappear Before Your Eyes
    Brian Kemp, the Republican running against Democrat Stacey Abrams, is blocking more than 53,000 people from the polls over a technicality, continuing his history of voter suppression
    By Jamil Smith

    My younger sister lives in the Atlanta area, and, like any annoying brother, I’ve been hounding her about something. I texted her this week to make sure that she is registered to vote. Not because I’m worried that she’ll be one of these Millennials Who Doesn’t Vote, but because she is black and living in Georgia, and could fall victim to Brian Kemp’s voter suppression tactics.

    Kemp is Georgia Secretary of State, the state’s top elections official. He has decreased the overall number of voters in Georgia since 2012 by more than 1 million — all while purging the rolls in a way that has predominantly affected black residents. Kemp is also the Republican nominee for governor. Democrat Stacey Abrams, the first African American woman nominated by a major party for that job anywhere in the country, is competing against a rival who is also the referee.

    Most candidates don’t want to be seen as cheaters. But for Republicans like Kemp, necessity outweighs propriety. Republicans have nothing else to sell, really. The tax cut is a bust, and I’m not sure how the Brett Kavanaugh fight helps Kemp as he runs against arguably the best-known female challenger on a ballot this November.

    This past Tuesday, the deadline for Georgia residents to register to vote, the AP reported that at Kemp’s insistence, more than 53,000 voter applications have been suspended indefinitely. More than two-thirds of those applications were filed by black people. As the AP report makes clear, a lot of people in Georgia don’t even know that this has happened to them. One woman, while trying to demonstrate to her college students how Georgians can verify their registration, discovered that she had been removed from the rolls, herself. She and tens of thousands may have to submit a provisional ballot if their issues are not rectified in the next three weeks and change.

    Abrams is within half a percentage point of Kemp in the RealClear Politics average as of this week. Already implicated in a failed effort to close seven of nine polling places in a sparsely populated but majority-black county, it is clear that Kemp and his allies understand how close this race will be. Those 53,000 voters could make all the difference in this race, which he surely realizes. Even if this was a blowout, his move would be suspect.

    Kemp’s campaign didn’t respond to Rolling Stone’s request for comment. Spokesman Ryan Mahoney told the AP in a statement that, “Kemp is fighting to protect the integrity of our elections and ensure that only legal citizens cast a ballot.” The aforementioned registrations were held up by the state’s controversial “exact match” verification policy. If a word is misspelled, an address not updated, or even a hyphen is out of place, a Georgia voter could end up in Kemp’s limbo. “Exact match” is a process that civil rights groups have sued to end, and that Kemp had been told was discriminatory eight years ago, before he implemented it. Yet his campaign would have us believe Kemp as an avenger, supposedly protecting democracy even as he mutilates it.

    Five years after the neutering of the Voting Rights Act in Shelby County v. Holder, we have gotten used to Republican voter suppression being a part of every election cycle. Along with police violence and mass incarceration, it is Jim Crow’s longest living descendant. Just in the past week, North Dakota’s voter-ID law got the Supreme Court’s sign-off, likely disenfranchising many tribal Native American residents who either don’t have an address on their identification or don’t have an ID at all. Missouri’s voter-ID measure was blocked by a state circuit judge, but Arkansas’ Supreme Court ruled in favor of its state’s law — which looks a lot like the one that the same court blocked four years ago. For Republicans looking to jimmy open new pathways to power, consistency is an afterthought, especially when few of these stories garner the kind of press that Shelby case did. Where there is no attention, there is no accountability.

    Kemp’s actions reflect the worst instincts of Republicanism by placating those who believe President Trump’s lie about millions of illegal votes being cast against him. Kemp no doubt excites Americans who think that voter ID laws, discriminatory purges and other suppressive measures are here to save us from those who would thwart our electoral system. People in this camp obscure the con this way, further mutilating democracy even as they claim to be covering its wounds.

    The Abrams campaign sees through it. Calling upon Kemp do away with “exact match” and to resign his position as Secretary of State, Abrams spokeswoman Abigail Collazo tells Rolling Stone that Kemp’s move to “silence” thousands of eligible voters “isn’t incompetence; it’s malpractice.”

    Kemp tried to smooth things over on Wednesday by boasting about how Georgia broke its record for registered voters: more than 6,915,000 are eligible to vote this November. In announcing the registration record, Kemp was defensive and outright conspiratorial. “While outside agitators disparage this office and falsely attack us,” his office said in a Wednesday statement, “we have kept our head down and remained focused on ensuring secure, accessible, and fair elections for all voters.” Naturally, he expected applause for this, as if this was his accomplishment. But it was Abrams and her New Georgia Project that, for about five years now, has been working consistently to not only get 800,000 people on the rolls, but particularly to encourage those from marginalized groups to vote.

    In return for the help in doing his job, Kemp blamed the victims. His office told the AP’s Ben Nadler that Abrams and the New Georgia Project were directly responsible for their need to interrupt those 53,000 voter applications. Kemp “accuses [her] organization of being sloppy in registering voters, and says they submitted inadequate forms for a batch of applicants that was predominantly black,” wrote Nadler, offering no proof to substantiate his claim. But how else is he to legitimize his discrimination against black Georgians — only 32 percent of the state’s population and yet nearly 70 percent of Kemp’s suspended voters? Too many of them were registered by Stacey Abrams, it’s her fault.

    Republicans have been proud of their suppressive measures in the past, even if they try to cloak them in this false crusade against voter fraud. But Kemp has added a new twist. Outside of über-suppressor Kris Kobach’s run in Kansas, no other governor’s race has a candidate not just working the referee, but being the referee. In the Trump era, Kemp must know that there is no need to be coy about just what Republicanism is now, and how it is exercised.

    After I texted with my sister about the Kemp news, she told me she will check her registration again. That seems wise. Georgians should do the same today. Then perhaps next week, too. Brian Kemp is trying to shape his own electorate in a tight race against a black woman already making history. He has about 25 days left. Unless the courts stop him, who knows what he’ll do next?

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