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October 27, 2024 at 7:30 pm #152851znModerator
from quora
Dr. Lichtman is a history professor and a political analyst. Lichtman is most famous for his accurate presidential election predictions.
In fact, Dr. Lichtman has accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections (his only incorrect one being the controversial 2000 Bush-Gore election results). Trump even sent him a letter after accurately predicting his win in 2016.
Allan’s model ignores polls and pundits. His analysis hinges on 13 keys that he developed in 1981. It’s based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes. They are the constant northern star of political prediction.
So, let’s look at the 13 true/false keys (a true key being good for Kamala, a false key being good for Trump):
Midterm Gains — Trump. While the Democrats did better than expected in 2022, they still lost House seats. So this key is false.
Incumbency — Trump. Biden dropped out of the race, costing the Democrats this key. That being said, it was only this key of re-election. This key is false.
Primary Contest — Kamala. The Democrats got smart and overwhelmingly supported Harris to become the primary candidate for the 2024 Presidential Election. She won 99% of the DNC delegate votes. That makes this key true.
No Third Party — Kamala. RFK Jr. has dropped out, and no other third party candidate is major enough to make a difference. This key is true.
Short-Term Economy — Kamala. Despite what people say, we are not in a recession as of October 2024. In fact, our gas prices and stock market is actually very good in the short-term. This key is true.
Long-Term Economy — Kamala. Growth during the Biden administration is far ahead of growth during the previous two terms. So this key is true.
Policy Change — Kamala. The White House has made major changes to national policy. Rejoining the Paris Accords, creating the CHIPS bill, creating the Infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act…this key is certainly true.
Social Unrest — Kamala. Despite certain sporadic protests, there have been no sustained social unrest during the Democrat’s term. And while there are those upset with Biden’s policies in Israel, Harris being front and center has dampened social unrest. So this key is true.
The White House is Untainted by Scandal — Kamala. Republicans have been trying for years to pin a scandal on President Biden, and they’ve come up empty. And no, things like the Hunter Biden scandal and Joe’s debate performance doesn’t matter because there has to be at least some bipartisan recognition of actual corruption that implicates the President himself, not a family member. So this key is true.
Incumbent Charisma — Trump. This is a very important key. You have to be a once-in-a-generational, broadly inspirational candidate. Harris has not met that standard, so the key is false.
Challenger Charisma — Kamala. Some view Trump as a god, but that’s a very small number of his supporters. He is not inspirational by any means (most that vote for him only do so because of party or against Kamala). So this key is true.
This gives Kamala a lead over Trump, being 8–3.
The last two keys are Foreign Policy Failure and Foreign Policy Success. But foreign policy keys are tricky, and these keys could flip. The Biden administration is deeply invested in the Israel war, with no permanent solution in sight.
But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only 5 keys in favor of Trump. This would still not be enough for Trump to win the election.
Because of this analysis, it is Dr. Lichtman’s prediction that Kamala Harris will win the White House in the 2024 Presidential Election.
October 29, 2024 at 3:41 am #152864znModeratorThat racist comedian’s jokes were so disgustingly racist and vile that the #swifties haven’t caught wind about the fact that he made a joke about Travis Kelce being the next OJ Simpson, implying he will k*ll Taylor Swift, and everyone laughed. pic.twitter.com/Z23sBEfeEi
— susie (@susielujano) October 28, 2024
October 30, 2024 at 11:12 am #152879ZooeyModeratorNovember 2, 2024 at 5:16 pm #152882joemadParticipantZooey, are you voting for Steve Garvey?
What’s your recommendations on the following?
- Proposition 2, a bond measure placed on the ballot by the state legislature that would issue $10 billion in bonds to fund construction and upgrades to public schools and colleges.<sup id=”cite_ref-CASOS_19-1″ class=”reference”>[19]</sup><sup id=”cite_ref-20″ class=”reference”>[20]</sup>
- Proposition 3, a constitutional amendment placed on the ballot by the state legislature that would repeal Proposition 8 and declare in the state constitution that that the “right to marry is a fundamental right”, effectively allowing same-sex couples to once again marry.<sup id=”cite_ref-CASOS_19-2″ class=”reference”>[19]</sup><sup id=”cite_ref-21″ class=”reference”>[21]</sup>
- Proposition 4, a bond measure placed on the ballot by the state legislature that would issue $10 billion in bonds to fund various water infrastructure, energy, and environmental protection projects.<sup id=”cite_ref-CASOS_19-3″ class=”reference”>[19]</sup><sup id=”cite_ref-22″ class=”reference”>[22]</sup>
- Proposition 5, a constitutional amendment placed on the ballot by the state legislature that would lower the supermajority vote requirement from 66.67% to 55% for any county or local bond measure that would fund affordable housing projects and public infrastructure.<sup id=”cite_ref-CASOS_19-4″ class=”reference”>[19]</sup><sup id=”cite_ref-23″ class=”reference”>[23]</sup>
- Proposition 6, a constitutional amendment placed on the ballot by the state legislature that would repeal the line saying, “Involuntary servitude is prohibited except to punish crime”, replacing it with language saying that involuntary servitude is prohibited absolutely.<sup id=”cite_ref-CASOS_19-5″ class=”reference”>[19]</sup><sup id=”cite_ref-24″ class=”reference”>[24]</sup>
- Proposition 32, a state statute initiative placed on the ballot via petition that would raise the state minimum wage to $18 per hour by 2026, then annually adjust it for inflation.<sup id=”cite_ref-CASOS_19-6″ class=”reference”>[19]</sup><sup id=”cite_ref-25″ class=”reference”>[25]</sup>
- Proposition 33, a state statute initiative placed on the ballot via petition that would repeal the Costa–Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, allowing cities to once again establish their own rent controls on single-family dwellings, condominiums, and residential properties completed after February 1, 1995.<sup id=”cite_ref-CASOS_19-7″ class=”reference”>[19]</sup><sup id=”cite_ref-26″ class=”reference”>[26]</sup>
- Proposition 34, a state statute initiative placed on the ballot via petition that would require health care providers that have spent over $100 million in any 10-year period on anything other than direct patient care, and operated multifamily housing with over 500 high-severity health and safety violations, to spend 98% of the revenues from federal discount prescription drug program on direct patient care.<sup id=”cite_ref-CASOS_19-8″ class=”reference”>[19]</sup><sup id=”cite_ref-27″ class=”reference”>[27]</sup>
- Proposition 35, a state statute initiative placed on the ballot via petition that would make permanent the existing tax on managed health care insurance plans, currently set to expire in 2026. It would also require the revenues generated by the tax to only be used for specified Medi-Cal services, and prohibit the revenue from being used to replace other existing Medi-Cal funding.<sup id=”cite_ref-CASOS_19-9″ class=”reference”>[19]</sup><sup id=”cite_ref-28″ class=”reference”>[28]</sup>
- Proposition 36, a state statute initiative placed on the ballot via petition that would increase the penalties and sentences for certain drug and theft crimes, which currently are only chargeable as misdemeanors. It would allow, among others, felony charges for possessing fentanyl and other certain drugs, and for thefts under $950, with two prior drug or theft convictions, respectively
November 3, 2024 at 11:02 am #152938ZooeyModeratorZooey, are you voting for Steve Garvey?
LOL.
No.
I voted Yes on every proposition except 34 and 36.
I thought all the propositions were pretty straight-forward, with the exceptions of 33 and 34, so I researched those until I was satisfied.
There is literally only one entity that Prop 34 applies to: AIDS Healthcare Foundation. The proposition was created by conglomerate landlords to force the foundation out of Housing Advocacy actions. They’ve been buying “fixer-upper” housing because they believe that adequate housing is essential in the fight against AIDS, and they work to improve the properties, but it’s a work in progress. They also spend money on advocating for affordable housing, so the big boys put this together to push them out of the housing game. As far as I can tell.
Prop 36 is just another one of those “if we incarcerate more people for longer sentences, we will cure society’s ills” kinds of initiatives that cost a lot of money, destroy families, and don’t fix anything except private prison profits.
- This reply was modified 2 weeks, 3 days ago by Zooey.
November 5, 2024 at 11:39 am #153030wvParticipantFwiw, Nick Wright picks Kamala. (this guy is a serious, professional-ish gambler, btw. He studies)
November 5, 2024 at 3:31 pm #153036ZooeyModeratorFwiw, Nick Wright picks Kamala. (this guy is a serious, professional-ish gambler, btw. He studies)
I think Kamala is going to win, and I don’t think it’s going to be as close as people think.
Looks to me like the enthusiasm for Trump has diminished over the years. He still has a lot of diehard support, but I can’t see how he would have increased support for himself. I don’t think he’s getting any votes this time that he didn’t get last time. His rallies have lower turnouts, and there are lots of people who leave the rallies early. The thing is, he used to have tremendous novelty value, but he’s basically singing the same songs. You know, REO Speedwagon can still sell some tickets to shows around the country, but they aren’t filling arenas anymore. I just see Trump as a faded star banging out his greatest hits to an audience that finds that the old excitement just isn’t quite there anymore.
The second and more important thing is that I expect an historic gender gap. I think women are gonna kill him at the polls. This is different from Hillary. Hillary was a woman, sure, and some people voted for that. But she was also a woman with high negatives, and Kamala doesn’t have the high negatives. Moreover, I think women will be motivated not just to “vote for a woman,” but to vote AGAINST the rightwing rollback on women’s rights. I think there is gonna be some backlash to the abortion rollback and the Project 2025 “barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen” crap. A lot of women are gonna look at Trump’s and the GOPs’ misogynistic bullshit and be reminded of their ex-husbands and shitty boyfriends and all of that.
That’s what I think. But I do not have a great track record as a prognosticator, so….
November 6, 2024 at 6:41 am #153070znModeratorBecause of this analysis, it is Dr. Lichtman’s prediction that Kamala Harris will win the White House in the 2024 Presidential Election.
And so much for that.
November 6, 2024 at 9:48 am #153072wvParticipantI have come to despise the Democrats so much in the last few years, I just feel zero regret about this election. I know what Trump is, and i know what he will do (judges, environment, war on the poor etc etc etc etc) but genocide is genocide, and the Democrats are pro-ecocide. Just at a slightly slower rate. Blah blah blah.
I’m glad the Dems lost. I’m not glad the Reps won, but I’m glad the Dems lost.
And now, we get to see the Dems blame the LEFT for the loss. And the Dems will now turn even further Right.
They disgust me. More than the outright fascist Right.
I’ve been wondering all year who would be the Dems NEXT presidential candidate.
w
v
November 6, 2024 at 10:28 am #153073wvParticipantJohn Mearsheimer is asked who he will vote for in the election tomorrow. He replies: "I won't vote for the Democrats because of the genocide in Gaza. I think the Biden administration is complicit in the genocide and genocide is a red line for me." pic.twitter.com/vXWGSBKysW
— ☀️👀 (@zei_squirrel) November 5, 2024
November 6, 2024 at 10:36 am #153075ZooeyModeratorWelp. I clearly do not have the pulse of this country. I don’t know what just happened. I thought 2020 showed that a majority of Americans simply did not want Trump in the White House a second longer, and it didn’t matter that the Democrats put up a flaccid candidate. I thought it was a rejection of Trump. I dunno.
Maybe this explains it. Maybe not.
November 6, 2024 at 1:30 pm #153077znModeratorI have come to despise the Democrats so much in the last few years, I just feel zero regret about this election.
You will. Feel regret about Trump getting a 2nd term w/ project 2025 behind him. It will be impossible not to regret it (well unless you’re one of them). I mean you think things are bad NOW….
November 6, 2024 at 1:34 pm #153078znModeratorMaybe this explains it.
It doesn’t. This is not an issue of the left not being heard, this is an issue of the right getting a very regressive message out to its base, while being backed by big money that has been promised huge gifts in the form of tax relief and drilling rights etc.
So it’s a combination of the rich oligarchy getting even more of what it wants than ever before–and I mean by huge big preposterous bunches more–and prejudiced Magas saving their kids from migrants turning them trans (the latter joke captures a real point).
Among the things threatened? Besides the environment. Social security, FEMA, education, women’s reproductive rights, the safety net and assistance out of poverty….
it goes on and on.
This is the worst in our lifetimes. By far. Make no mistake.
November 6, 2024 at 2:33 pm #153081wvParticipant“…US stocks rose sharply Wednesday morning following a decisive and consequential victory for former President Donald Trump in Tuesday’s US presidential election.
The Dow soared 1,334 points, or 3.2% at the market open. The S&P 500 surged 2% higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose by 1.8%. If the Dow maintains its implied gains throughout the trading session, it will mark the sixth-best point gain ever for the index — but nowhere close to a record percentage gain…”
November 6, 2024 at 2:51 pm #153083ZooeyModeratorThis is not an issue of the left not being heard, this is an issue of the right getting a very regressive message out to its base, while being backed by big money that has been promised huge gifts in the form of tax relief and drilling rights etc. So it’s a combination of the rich oligarchy getting even more of what it wants than ever before–and I mean by huge big preposterous bunches more–and prejudiced Magas saving their kids from migrants turning them trans (the latter joke captures a real point). Among the things threatened? Besides the environment. Social security, FEMA, education, women’s reproductive rights, the safety net and assistance out of poverty…. it goes on and on. This is the worst in our lifetimes. By far. Make no mistake.
I dunno. While I agree that things are going to get far, far worse, and this is basically the death of the “American dream” of living in prosperity and freedom, the fact that the oligarchy financed this heavily doesn’t account for the voting patterns. It is also true, for example, to say that the oligarchy financed Harris. They were kind of in a win-win situation as a class, though specific billionaires backed the MAGA agenda, and some backed Harris.
So here’s something I’m thinking about: Trump apparently has drawn FEWER votes this election than he did in 2020. He actually performed worse than the last time he ran. Not by a lot; it’s basically a push. So now I’m looking squarely at the fact that Harris got ~15M fewer votes than Biden did. Trump didn’t gain in popularity. Harris was a drop-off from Biden. A huge drop-off.
Why?
Well, it’s complex, and there are undoubtedly several factors.
But it seems apparent that, once again, the Democrats relied mostly on the argument that Trump is terrible. Which has the virtue of being true. But also isn’t enough on its own. And I say that having just made the prediction a few hours ago that it WOULD be enough, that women in particular were bound to vote against the regressive, misogynistic policies that are unfolding.
Harris ran on “Joy!” And secondarily, she ran on being a Republican. Bragged about Republican endorsements, including those of Liz and Dick Cheney, a war criminal. And promised to take advice from Republicans, and even find a place in her cabinet for a Republican. In the mean time, she also forcefully backed war criminal Netanyahu, and said nothing about specific policies. She deliberately ran on vague generalizations about “economic opportunities.” And apart from her saying she would continue to back Israel and fracking, I don’t know a single thing that she said she would fight for. On abortion rights, she said that if a bill came to her, she would sign it. She didn’t promise to lead the fight, or make it a priority.
Basically, she presented nothing except the absence of MAGA as a platform and some feel-good vibes.
And I think the way she came to be the nominee was unhelpful. Voters didn’t choose her. She was the nominee by default. I think all of this added up to a good deal of apathy about her as a candidate, and it appears that there wasn’t enough fear of Trump to put her over the top.
November 6, 2024 at 4:14 pm #153084ZooeyModeratorHow Trump won the election
Jason Hickel
All the takes about Trump winning the US election are correct and yet they also miss the point.
Yes, it was insane for the Democrats to think they could win by running a soulless candidate, without a shred of progressive policy vision, pursuing endorsements from neocon war-hawks everybody hates, while arming and funding a genocide, and belittling and crushing those who have enough morality to protest it. It is enraging that the Democrats are so smug and blind to this.
But these are all just symptoms. The deeper reality is that liberalism has failed, liberalism is dead, and people urgently need to wake up to this fact and respond accordingly.
Progressive
It is a defunct ideology that cannot offer any meaningful solutions to our social and ecological crises and it must be abandoned.
Democrats have proven over and over again that they cannot accept even basic steps like public healthcare, affordable housing, and a public job guarantee – things that would dramatically improve the material, social and political conditions of the working classes.
And they cannot accept a public finance strategy that would steer production away from fossil fuels and toward green transition to give us a shot at a liveable future.
Why? Because these things run against the objectives of capital accumulation. And for liberals capital is sacrosanct.
They will do whatever it takes to ensure elite accumulation, it is their only consistent commitment. At home, they suppress and demonise progressive and socialist tendencies.
Risk
Abroad, they engage in endless wars and violence to suppress input prices in the global South and prevent any possibility of sovereign economic development.
The Democrats have done all this purposefully and knowingly, for my whole life, not as some kind of ‘mistake’ but in full consciousness that it is in the interests of capital.
And because liberalism cannot address our crises, and because it crushes socialist alternatives, it inevitably paves the way for right-wing populism.
They know this pattern, and yet they risk it every time – this election being only the most recent example.
Formidable
They did it in 2016, when they actively crushed the Sanders campaign and sent Trump to the White House. They do it because ultimately they – and I mean the liberal ruling class here – don’t really mind if fascists take power, so long as the latter too ensure the conditions for capital accumulation.
They 100 per cent prefer this to the possibility of a socialist alternative. So, progressives have to face reality. The dream of “converting” the Democratic party is dead.
This is now a fact and it must be accepted. The only option is to build a mass-based movement that can reclaim the working classes and mobilize a political vehicle that can integrate disparate progressive struggles into a unified and formidable political force and achieve substantive transformation.
This will take real work, actual organizing, but it must be done and that process must begin now.
This Author
Jason Hickel is a professor at ICTA-UAB and visiting senior fellow at the LSE, London. He is author of The Divide and Less Is More. He writes about global inequality, political economy and ecological economics. This commentary first appeared at X.com where Jason uses the handle @jasonhickel.org
- This reply was modified 2 weeks ago by Zooey.
November 6, 2024 at 4:50 pm #153086wvParticipantJason Hickel All the takes about Trump winning the US election are correct and yet they also miss the point.Yes, it was insane for the Democrats to think they could win by running a soulless candidate, without a shred of progressive policy vision, pursuing endorsements from neocon war-hawks everybody hates, while arming and funding a genocide, and belittling and crushing those who have enough morality to protest it. It is enraging that the Democrats are so smug and blind to this. But these are all just symptoms….
Well, I’d say capitalism has failed. I dont think of it as ‘liberalism’ or neoliberalism etc, etc — its just capitalism to me. And yes, its failed. If ‘fail’ means ecocide.
At any rate, as a certified doomer, i see no way out. Kamala was not a way out. Neither was Bernie. Blah blah.
And I really think generation after generation after generation of capitalism has ‘done something’ to Americans. The american mind/soul. I dont think there is any way to turn it around at this point. Not given the power of the system. How do you change people when the system controls the education system and the Media and the Institutions? I mean, exactly how do you ‘get thru’ to the masses when they are this far gone, and they continue to be inundated with capitalist dogmas as well as all the other capitalist induced factors? (ie., exhausted workers, distractions, addictions, atomization, etc, etc etc)
Well, I’ve said all this before, so i dont intend to repeat the doomer mantras. To be a ‘good leftist’ you have to ‘believe in the People’ — You really do. Che did. Martin Luther King did. The list is endless. I’m a bad leftist, now, though. I no longer believe in the people. And it has nothing to do with this election. This election is just more of the same. I’m not sure exactly when i stopped believing in the people. Maybe back around the Obama years, I dunno.
I think humans can, or could have been, stewards of the biosphere. I think they can, or could have been decent. But not under this system.
This system turns them into pathological dangerous beings. (and i dont mean ‘everyone’, but the vast majority) And the system gets stronger, not weaker. As it rolls over more and more species and people.
So, the big picture to me has not changed. I’m delighted the Dems lost. I’m disgusted the Reps won. I think ecocidal biosphere-killing capitalism wins either way.
There have always been doomers though, of course. Maybe I’m just another misguided wrong-headed cynical doomer.
I dunno. But fuck the Democrats, and Go Rams.
I did vote, btw. Jill Stein, fwiw.
w
v
November 6, 2024 at 5:57 pm #153088nittany ramModeratorI did vote, btw. Jill Stein, fwiw. w v
So YOU’RE why Trump won.
I agree. I don’t know how you fight the system when it has so much influence and power over every aspect of daily life. This has to be unprecedented. No society in history has been under this much control while not realizing they are under control.
Like you, what bothers me the most is the effect this is having on the environment. Propelling the “6th Extinction”. However, I get some relief knowing humans will be dead before the planet is. Earth will get the last laugh
November 6, 2024 at 6:40 pm #153092ZooeyModeratorSo YOU’RE why Trump won. I agree. I don’t know how you fight the system when it has so much influence and power over every aspect of daily life. This has to be unprecedented. No society in history has been under this much control while not realizing they are under control. Like you, what bothers me the most is the effect this is having on the environment. Propelling the “6th Extinction”. However, I get some relief knowing humans will be dead before the planet is. Earth will get the last laugh
I dunno what you mean by “the planet.” I think in 100 years, give or take a coupla decades, the only living thing on this planet will be those freaky things that live on the bottom of the ocean along the volcanic vents. We are headed for a hard reset.
And I think wv is right. There is absolutely no chance of fixing this. Sociopathic greed monsters control “reality,” and you can’t argue people out of their realities. It doesn’t matter how much evidence you have. From time-to-time somebody will “get it,” and see what’s happening, but there is no chance whatsoever of changing the system. At least not until it collapses of its own accord, and that will happen, but it will be environmental collapse that makes the system go belly up, and there’s nothing left to do at that point but write epitaphs anyway.
Trump’s victory brings some unnecessary suffering into the equation earlier, and pointlessly. But the window began to shut somewhere in the 60s, and slammed shut when Clinton sold the Democrat party to Wall St.
November 6, 2024 at 6:41 pm #153093wvParticipant..I agree. I don’t know how you fight the system when it has so much influence and power over every aspect of daily life. This has to be unprecedented. No society in history has been under this much control while not realizing they are under control…
“Like so many Americans, she was trying to construct a life that made sense from things she found in gift shops.”
― Kurt Vonnegut, Slaughterhouse Fivew
v
November 6, 2024 at 8:39 pm #153097nittany ramModeratorSo YOU’RE why Trump won. I agree. I don’t know how you fight the system when it has so much influence and power over every aspect of daily life. This has to be unprecedented. No society in history has been under this much control while not realizing they are under control. Like you, what bothers me the most is the effect this is having on the environment. Propelling the “6th Extinction”. However, I get some relief knowing humans will be dead before the planet is. Earth will get the last laugh
I dunno what you mean by “the planet.” I think in 100 years, give or take a coupla decades, the only living thing on this planet will be those freaky things that live on the bottom of the ocean along the volcanic vents. We are headed for a hard reset.
Well, yes, we have the ability to ruin things for us and the majority of the creatures most similar to us, but as Stephen J Gould pointed out, we couldn’t destroy all life on Earth even if we wanted to. Life (even higher life forms) have survived global catastrophes greater than we can bring about. We are here indirectly as a result of the last one. And ultimately, our efforts would destroy us before we could exterminate everything else.
Yea, wv is right, it isn’t possible to fix what end stage capitalism has wrought, and the long term outlook for the ecosphere is pretty bleak, but I think zn is right too. In the short term, Trump’s victory is going to make things much worse, especially for the poor, minorities, women, immigrants, etc.
November 6, 2024 at 8:47 pm #153098znModeratorI dunno. While I agree that things are going to get far, far worse, and this is basically the death of the “American dream” of living in prosperity and freedom, the fact that the oligarchy financed this heavily doesn’t account for the voting patterns
Though that’s not what I said. Or it’s not quite it. The election had to do with the money guys funding the message to the lower rung base, and the message had to do with the usual anxieties and moral panics about migrants, race, sexuality, and etc. plus believing that price gouging was inflation. Don’t account for that, and you don’t account for this election.
It’s this, to sum it all up in one joke:
November 6, 2024 at 9:44 pm #153079wvParticipantSaw this, fwiw.
….Among the more shocking exit poll results in the presidential race is a class realignment from 2020.This year, Harris carried voters whose total household income is over $100,000 by a 53% to 45% margin. In 2020, Trump carried the same demographic 54% to 42% against Biden.
In contrast, Trump reversed his fortunes amongst those with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999 and those who make less than $50,000, winning both by 2%. Biden carried those demographics by 15% and 10%, respectively, in 2020….”
November 6, 2024 at 9:45 pm #153080wvParticipantSaw this today, fwiw.
“..
Shocking class realignment tells the economic story of the election
<picture data-testid=”picture”><source srcset=”https://media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com/image/upload/t_focal-60×60,f_avif,q_auto:eco,dpr_2/newscms/2022_31/3564803/katelyn-burns-msnbc.png 2x, https://media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com/image/upload/t_focal-60×60,f_auto,q_auto:best/newscms/2022_31/3564803/katelyn-burns-msnbc.png 1x” media=”(This year, Harris carried voters whose total household income is over $100,000 by a 53% to 45% margin. In 2020, Trump carried the same demographic 54% to 42% against Biden.In contrast, Trump reversed his fortunes amongst those with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999 and those who make less than $50,000, winning both by 2%. Biden carried those demographics by 15% and 10%, respectively, in 2020….”November 6, 2024 at 9:52 pm #153108ZooeyModeratorThough that’s not what I said. Or it’s not quite it. The election had to do with the money guys funding the message to the lower rung base, and the message had to do with the usual anxieties and moral panics about migrants, race, sexuality, and etc. plus believing that price gouging was inflation. Don’t account for that, and you don’t account for this election. It’s this, to sum it all up in one joke:
My argument is that it wasn’t so much the power of the money guys’ message about immigrants etc. as it was apathy towards Harris’ non-message.
I think it is both…but the fact that Trump’s vote total is more or less the same, and Harris’ vote total is WAAAAAAAAAY down from Biden’s suggests that it had more to do with her than him. Basically.
November 7, 2024 at 12:49 am #153110ZooeyModeratorWell, yes, we have the ability to ruin things for us and the majority of the creatures most similar to us, but as Stephen J Gould pointed out, we couldn’t destroy all life on Earth even if we wanted to. Life (even higher life forms) have survived global catastrophes greater than we can bring about. We are here indirectly as a result of the last one. And ultimately, our efforts would destroy us before we could exterminate everything else.
Well, my son tells me that we are pretty close to killing all the plankton that live in the ocean, and that the plankton produces far more oxygen than the rainforests do, and when the plankton goes, everything above it on the food chain goes.
I think if we get down to plankton level, Stephen J Gould’s contributions to science won’t matter much to anything left.
November 7, 2024 at 6:39 am #153111nittany ramModeratorWell, yes, we have the ability to ruin things for us and the majority of the creatures most similar to us, but as Stephen J Gould pointed out, we couldn’t destroy all life on Earth even if we wanted to. Life (even higher life forms) have survived global catastrophes greater than we can bring about. We are here indirectly as a result of the last one. And ultimately, our efforts would destroy us before we could exterminate everything else.
Well, my son tells me that we are pretty close to killing all the plankton that live in the ocean, and that the plankton produces far more oxygen than the rainforests do, and when the plankton goes, everything above it on the food chain goes. I think if we get down to plankton level, Stephen J Gould’s contributions to science won’t matter much to anything left.
We agree that the biosphere is in trouble and since there’s no political will to stop the damage we are doing, the outlook for us and for much of the life on this planet is craptacular. I’m not trying to paint a rosy picture of the future here.
Your son is right about the importance of plankton, and that is one more thing we need to be concerned about. We don’t know enough about plankton populations to say for sure how they are being affected by climate change. Some studies show a decline in numbers, some show an increase, but it’s likely that climate change is having some negative effect. Our ignorance about the main reason we can breathe is a bit disconcerting. Although, ultimately it won’t matter. No matter what we learn, one side will deny it and the other will pay it lip service but do nothing.
November 7, 2024 at 8:03 am #153113wvParticipantI dont have much respect for Bernie anymore (‘my friend Joe’ etc) but he did at least say some useful things to his buddies in the Ecocide-Party. (and i hate TYT, btw, fwiw)
November 7, 2024 at 8:32 am #153114znModeratorPOSTING ALERT
I find this happens on the Rams forum when I post things. You get posts from certain news sources and when you post them here they’re covered with data crapola. I just went back through this thread and cleaned up a bunch of posts.
There’s a simple way to avoid that. Before posting here, post your content in another place, like a word processor or something like that (you don’t have to actually hit “post”). That cleans it up. Then you copy that, and post it here.
What I do is post something, and if it’s all crapped out with data all over it, I then just edit it and post again using the method I just described.
Or you can clean it up here just using edit. ‘
Either way I will check back to clean things up if need be.
November 7, 2024 at 8:55 am #153115znModeratorBut it seems apparent that, once again, the Democrats relied mostly on the argument that Trump is terrible
I don’t see that. I saw all kinds of arguments about how to alter the economic situations of ordinary people. Detailed arguments. I saw faaaaaaaaaaaarrrr more of that than anything you’re talking about. None of it was really innovative, it was just common sense centrist stuff. But that’s what I saw.
Biden and Harris just had problems with messaging. Their messages got overwhelmed by the looming feeling that the economy was bad. Biden did well with his centrist “I’m a manager” style approach in 2020 when there was a huge national sentiment that Trump screwed the economy. But without that, the centrist “I’m just management” style can’t get out the vote.
I am not seeing much on any of this whole issue that is useful from these groups:
- Trumpsters
- we hate the dems style leftists
- mainstream-news type dems
As a leftist myself, I am a little dismayed that #2 in that list is not proving to be that useful. Anyway. The best arguments I have seen so far, and that hold up, are the more “less noise more analysis” types who point out that in both 2020 and 2024, how the economy was perceived drove turnout and drove the elections.
My own “feel” on reading around on this is that the more emotion someone has in trying to find someone to either blame or praise, the less what you get from them actually holds up.
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