the election

from quora

Dr. Lichtman is a history professor and a political analyst. Lichtman is most famous for his accurate presidential election predictions.

In fact, Dr. Lichtman has accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections (his only incorrect one being the controversial 2000 Bush-Gore election results). Trump even sent him a letter after accurately predicting his win in 2016.

Allan’s model ignores polls and pundits. His analysis hinges on 13 keys that he developed in 1981. It’s based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes. They are the constant northern star of political prediction.

So, let’s look at the 13 true/false keys (a true key being good for Kamala, a false key being good for Trump):

Midterm Gains — Trump. While the Democrats did better than expected in 2022, they still lost House seats. So this key is false.

Incumbency — Trump. Biden dropped out of the race, costing the Democrats this key. That being said, it was only this key of re-election. This key is false.

Primary Contest — Kamala. The Democrats got smart and overwhelmingly supported Harris to become the primary candidate for the 2024 Presidential Election. She won 99% of the DNC delegate votes. That makes this key true.

No Third Party — Kamala. RFK Jr. has dropped out, and no other third party candidate is major enough to make a difference. This key is true.

Short-Term Economy — Kamala. Despite what people say, we are not in a recession as of October 2024. In fact, our gas prices and stock market is actually very good in the short-term. This key is true.

Long-Term Economy — Kamala. Growth during the Biden administration is far ahead of growth during the previous two terms. So this key is true.

Policy Change — Kamala. The White House has made major changes to national policy. Rejoining the Paris Accords, creating the CHIPS bill, creating the Infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act…this key is certainly true.

Social Unrest — Kamala. Despite certain sporadic protests, there have been no sustained social unrest during the Democrat’s term. And while there are those upset with Biden’s policies in Israel, Harris being front and center has dampened social unrest. So this key is true.

The White House is Untainted by Scandal — Kamala. Republicans have been trying for years to pin a scandal on President Biden, and they’ve come up empty. And no, things like the Hunter Biden scandal and Joe’s debate performance doesn’t matter because there has to be at least some bipartisan recognition of actual corruption that implicates the President himself, not a family member. So this key is true.

Incumbent Charisma — Trump. This is a very important key. You have to be a once-in-a-generational, broadly inspirational candidate. Harris has not met that standard, so the key is false.

Challenger Charisma — Kamala. Some view Trump as a god, but that’s a very small number of his supporters. He is not inspirational by any means (most that vote for him only do so because of party or against Kamala). So this key is true.

This gives Kamala a lead over Trump, being 8–3.

The last two keys are Foreign Policy Failure and Foreign Policy Success. But foreign policy keys are tricky, and these keys could flip. The Biden administration is deeply invested in the Israel war, with no permanent solution in sight.

But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only 5 keys in favor of Trump. This would still not be enough for Trump to win the election.

Because of this analysis, it is Dr. Lichtman’s prediction that Kamala Harris will win the White House in the 2024 Presidential Election.