some context-oriented stats on qbs SB, AD, & SH

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  • #14777
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    For what the heck reasons, here is some context-situated stats on Bradford, Davis, and Hill.

    I do the following: qb rating, TD%, INT %.

    Here;s what I did.

    1. Davis’s season divides into 2sets. In the first set, he starts out well. Then a couple of things happen. He plays teams that have film on him so he’s no surprise (so for example it becomes clear he can’t throw wide consistently), and he starts playing top 10 defenses. When that happens, he regresses stupendously.

    So Davis gets a “before” and “after.”

    I also don’t count the Vikes game.

    2. Hill is just all his 2013 games minus the Vikes game.

    3. Bradford, I do the 2012-13 games that meet this criteria: (a) he has a relatively healthy OL (this excludes the 1st half of 2012) and (b) he has a running threat (this excludes the 1st 4 games of 2013). Why a relatively healthy OL? Because all qbs play better behind a relatively healthy OL. Why a running threat? Because most qbs play better with a running threat (and besides Hill and Davis both had running threats). Now is that cherry picking just good games? No. The Rams have some bad games in that set. It’s just that on avg. in those games you’re going to see the real Bradford.

    DAVIS games 2-4: (includes games against 0 top 10 defenses):
    qb rating 103.26, TDs 5%, Ints 1.7%

    DAVIS games 5-9 (includes games against 4 top 10 defenses):
    qb rating 76.0, TDs 4.2%, Ints 4.2%

    HILL games 8-15 (includes games against 2 top 10 defenses):
    qb rating 91.6, TDs 4.4%, Ints 2.2%

    BRADFORD 2012-13 (criteria above)(includes games against 6 top 10 defenses):
    qb rating 91.4, TDs 5.2%, Ints 1.8%

    Since Hill and Bradford seem close, let me add one more factor: percentage of TDs on attempts inside the 10. (This isn’t calculated the same way because you can’t go game by game with it unless you hunt through a couple of dozen play by plays. So I just do Bradford’s overall numbers for both seasons).

    Hill: 23%
    Bradford: 48%

    #14786
    TackleDummy
    Participant

    HILL games 8-15 (includes games against 2 top 10 defenses):
    qb rating 91.6, TDs 4.4%, Ints 2.2%

    Just wondering. What is Hill’s record against the two top 10 defenses?

    #14787
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    zn wrote:
    HILL games 8-15 (includes games against 2 top 10 defenses):
    qb rating 91.6, TDs 4.4%, Ints 2.2%

    Just wondering. What is Hill’s record against the two top 10 defenses?

    Against the 2 top Ds —

    Actually right now that’s 2 top 11 Ds. SD is now 11th. The other is Denver.

    Using the same criteria as before…qb rating, TD%, INT %.

    Can’t do just the avg. because the 2 games are so completely different. The avg. on its own would mask the difference.

    DEN = qb rating 102.7, TD% 3.44%, Int% 0
    SD = qb rating 54.2, TD% 2.8%, Int% 5.6

    Avg. qb rating 78.4, TD% 3.1%, Int% 3.1

    #14854
    TackleDummy
    Participant

    FYI: Hill’s qb rating against the Seahawks was 65.5

    #14855
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    FYI: Hill’s qb rating against the Seahawks was 65.5

    Do you think Davis would have done better in Seattle, with an ailing OL?

    There were stretches today where Hill performed well enough for them to win, and what killed them was mistakes on both offense and defense. He made one of those mistakes (grounding the ball into the hands of a d-lineman). I think that was equally true of the Giants game.

    I thought Davis completely melted down and that has me wary of him. I would not want to see Davis in Seattle, with the Seattle homefield advantage, against the league’s #1 defense.

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