running game and the offense, 2012 v. 2015

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  • May 15, 2016 at 7:20 pm #44108
    Avatar photozn
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    Some details using Fooball Outsiders stats. FO measures both “Second Level Yards” (ie. yards which the RB gets from 5-10 yards past the LOS divided by total carries) and “Open Field Yards” (ie. yards which the RB gets more than 10 yards past the LOS divided by total carries). They also measure stuffs. If you combine all those it’s interesting.

    In 2012, the Rams used Jackson to help keep their (play action) offense running (a lot of it was passing too, so it was a combo). Jackson was strong on 2nd level yards but not on open field yards (which just completely mirrors our basic expecations). Rams backs (though primarily Jackson) were 21st in being stuffed, 16th in open field yards, and 11th in 2nd level yards. Jackson was getting enough in the 5-10 yard range to help make the offense work. The Rams also passed 59% of the time. So it was a balance between Jacksons 2nd level yards and the passing game.

    In 2015, the Rams used Gurley to get big plays. Rams RBs, including Gurley but also Tavon (the stat doesn’t differentiate between backs) were ranked 28th in being stuffed, 24th in 2nd level yards, and 3rd in open field yards. They also passed around (if memory serves) 53.5% of total plays. That means the offensive production was heavily dependent on long runs (which is also more or less exactly what you would think from watching them).

    And…that heavy dependency on open field yards as was much on the OL (of course) as on the qb.

    And yeah we expect both the OL and qb to improve in 2016.

    …

    May 15, 2016 at 8:10 pm #44113
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
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    and also a running back still rehabbing and acclimation to a step up in level of competition.

    so i would expect an uptick in second level yards as he gainz more experience and maybe even an uptick in open field yards as gurley gains explosion as well as improved oline and qb play.

    July 11, 2016 at 1:39 am #48439
    Avatar photozn
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    zn wrote:

    In 2015, the Rams used Gurley to get big plays. Rams RBs, including Gurley but also Tavon (the stat doesn’t differentiate between backs) were ranked 28th in being stuffed, 24th in 2nd level yards, and 3rd in open field yards.

    Got some new numbers so I can dig into this one.

    He led the NFL in 20+ yard runs, with 14, despite missing three games due to injury. The former 10th-overall pick also accumulated nearly half his yardage on runs over 15 yards. Gurley led the league in breakaway percentage—a metric that looks at the percentage of yardage accumulated on long runs—with 508 of his 1,106 yards (45.9 percent) generated on big plays.

    That means 44.1% of his yards were generated on non-big plays. But I can’t do anything with that because I don’t have a number for “runs over 15 yards.” There’s nothing to divide the regular play yards by to come up with a YPC.

    But I can do plays of 20 yards or more, which is 14. He got at least 280 yards on those plays.

    His total yards are, 229 carries for 1106 yards and a 4.8 YPC.

    If you subtract 14 carries it’s 215, and if you subtract 280 yards that 826 (or less, since it’s AT LEAST 280).

    So 826 or less yards on 215 carries is a YPC of 3.8 or less.

    While 4.8 YPC is ranked 8th in the league, 3.8 would be ranked 35th. Less would be less.

    Bear in mind none of this is about Gurley. It’s about the relative state of the OL’s run blocking in 2016, which needs work.

    August 23, 2016 at 7:01 pm #51485
    Avatar photozn
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    zn wrote:

    Bear in mind none of this is about Gurley. It’s about the relative state of the OL’s run blocking in 2016, which needs work.

    Well apparently PFF didn’t bear that in mind.

    PFF:

    RB Todd Gurley definitely a home-run hitter, but needs to improve consistency.

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-2016-cheat-sheet-los-angeles-rams/

    As a rookie, Todd Gurley was one of the most explosive backs in the NFL. He forced 42 missed tackles on his carries last season, tied for fifth-most in the league. 4.8 percent of his carries went for 20 or more yards, third-most in the NFL (just behind Le’Veon Bell and Doug Martin). While Gurley could break a lot of big runs, though, he wasn’t as consistent on a play-by-play level as other backs. On 61.1 percent of runs, he gained 3 or fewer yards, 10th-worst of the 43 backs with 100 or more carries. If Gurley can improve his consistency, he can put himself among the NFL’s elite.

    Okay, interesting numbers. But…that’s not on Gurley, right? That’s on inconsistent run blocking.

    ..

    August 23, 2016 at 7:40 pm #51488
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
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    i also think he wore down a little at the end.

    i wonder how the consistency changed from the first half of his season to the second half.

    i also think he becomes more consistent with more experience. i wouldn’t put it all on the oline. although i’m sure it was a factor.

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