rough calculations… OL draft "hits," different rounds

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  • May 11, 2015 at 11:24 pm #24453
    zn
    Moderator

    I looked at 2002-2011, because 2011 is far back enough to get a read, and back to 2002 covers a decade.

    I wasn’t very detailed. Just flew in, got rough estimates, had a sandwich, flew out.

    But the numbers should be pretty “more or less” good.

    So. What percentage of OL taken in that time frame from rounds 6-7 ended up as “hits”? I am counting that as continuing starters.

    I get 23 of 150. Just over 15%.

    What percentage of OL taken in that time frame from rounds 4-5 ended up as “hits”?

    I get 29 of 117. Just under 25%. There’s about 2 dozen more borderline guys after the first 29.

    What percentage of OL taken in that time frame from round 3 ended up as “hits”?

    I get 32 of 50. Just under 64%.

    What percentage of OL taken in that time frame from round 2 ended up as “hits”?

    I get 33 of 49. Just over 67%.

    May 12, 2015 at 1:12 am #24454
    Herzog
    Participant

    Nice work….. So rounds 1-3 seem to be the sweet spot

    May 12, 2015 at 8:31 am #24456
    zn
    Moderator
    Herzog wrote:

    Nice work….. So rounds 1-3 seem to be the sweet spot

    I have a thing about round 1 though. If you take a guy in round 1, he pretty much has to start. But then I also put up some numbers before that suggest the majority of 1st round OL struggle as rookies. It’s breaking down, and more and more teams are taking OCs, OGs, and ROTs in the 1st round now, but, to me, round 1 seems to still be mostly where you want to take your LOT.

    May 12, 2015 at 3:07 pm #24462
    Ramsey Glissadevil
    Participant

    So we should get 2 to 3 hits out our 4 lineman picks?

    May 12, 2015 at 3:12 pm #24463
    zn
    Moderator
    Ramsey Glissadevil wrote:

    So we should get 2 to 3 hits out our 4 lineman picks?

    Ought to. Maybe 2 starters and some useful utility depth. Who knows. But I would say right off that I would really be surprised if both Harkenstein and Brown were NOT hits. Maybe not both as rookies, but it seems to be in the cards for them both.

    May 12, 2015 at 3:21 pm #24464
    wv
    Participant
    Ramsey Glissadevil wrote:

    So we should get 2 to 3 hits out our 4 lineman picks?

    I’m ‘expecting’ two solid, effective starters. Less than that
    and I’ll be disappointed; more than that, and I’ll
    be insufferable. Possibly even unbearable.

    And by “solid, effective starter,” i mean…um….
    solid, effective, starters.

    w
    v

    May 12, 2015 at 3:23 pm #24465
    Herzog
    Participant

    I am anxious to see what Bou can do with this bunch. He takes UDFA and turns them into capable back-ups and sometimes starters. What can he do with guys with more talent and better athleticism. I wouldn’t be surprised with 3 starters.

    Of course I’m usually wrong…so….i may have just killed it for all of us.

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