rough calculations… OL draft "hits," different rounds

This topic has 6 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 6 months ago by Herzog.

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May 11, 2015 at 11:24 pm #24453

zn
Moderator

I looked at 2002-2011, because 2011 is far back enough to get a read, and back to 2002 covers a decade.

I wasn’t very detailed. Just flew in, got rough estimates, had a sandwich, flew out.

But the numbers should be pretty “more or less” good.

So. What percentage of OL taken in that time frame from rounds 6-7 ended up as “hits”? I am counting that as continuing starters.

I get 23 of 150. Just over 15%.

What percentage of OL taken in that time frame from rounds 4-5 ended up as “hits”?

I get 29 of 117. Just under 25%. There’s about 2 dozen more borderline guys after the first 29.

What percentage of OL taken in that time frame from round 3 ended up as “hits”?

I get 32 of 50. Just under 64%.

What percentage of OL taken in that time frame from round 2 ended up as “hits”?

I get 33 of 49. Just over 67%.

May 12, 2015 at 1:12 am #24454

Herzog
Participant

Nice work….. So rounds 1-3 seem to be the sweet spot

May 12, 2015 at 8:31 am #24456

zn
Moderator

Herzog wrote:

Nice work….. So rounds 1-3 seem to be the sweet spot

I have a thing about round 1 though. If you take a guy in round 1, he pretty much has to start. But then I also put up some numbers before that suggest the majority of 1st round OL struggle as rookies. It’s breaking down, and more and more teams are taking OCs, OGs, and ROTs in the 1st round now, but, to me, round 1 seems to still be mostly where you want to take your LOT.

May 12, 2015 at 3:07 pm #24462

Ramsey Glissadevil
Participant

So we should get 2 to 3 hits out our 4 lineman picks?

May 12, 2015 at 3:12 pm #24463

zn
Moderator

Ramsey Glissadevil wrote:

So we should get 2 to 3 hits out our 4 lineman picks?

Ought to. Maybe 2 starters and some useful utility depth. Who knows. But I would say right off that I would really be surprised if both Harkenstein and Brown were NOT hits. Maybe not both as rookies, but it seems to be in the cards for them both.

May 12, 2015 at 3:21 pm #24464

wv
Participant

Ramsey Glissadevil wrote:

So we should get 2 to 3 hits out our 4 lineman picks?

I’m ‘expecting’ two solid, effective starters. Less than that
and I’ll be disappointed; more than that, and I’ll
be insufferable. Possibly even unbearable.

And by “solid, effective starter,” i mean…um….
solid, effective, starters.

w
v

May 12, 2015 at 3:23 pm #24465

Herzog
Participant

I am anxious to see what Bou can do with this bunch. He takes UDFA and turns them into capable back-ups and sometimes starters. What can he do with guys with more talent and better athleticism. I wouldn’t be surprised with 3 starters.

Of course I’m usually wrong…so….i may have just killed it for all of us.
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