reporters preview the VIKES game

Adrian Peterson-Todd Gurley matchup pits NFL’s present against its future

Ben Goessling and Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/16294/adrian-peterson-todd-gurley-matchup-pits-nfls-present-against-its-future

MINNEAPOLIS — They’ve been compared to one another for reasons beyond their prodigious returns from knee surgery. They both rank in the NFL’s top five in rushing despite being at opposite ends of the career spectrum. And on Sunday, Adrian Peterson and Todd Gurley will get a chance to outdo one another on the same field.

The Minnesota Vikings veteran and the St. Louis Rams rookie will face off Sunday at TCF Bank Stadium in a game that could prove pivotal to the playoff chances of two of the NFC’s up-and-coming teams. Both Peterson and Gurley have quelled the uncertainty about them with strong first halves; Peterson is third in the league with 633 yards after returning from last year’s suspension, while Gurley has averaged a whopping 6.1 yards per carry to post 575 yards on 94 carries after a cautious return from a torn ACL.

To get ready for the matchup between one of the NFL’s great backs of the present and a presumptive star of its future, ESPN Vikings reporter Ben Goessling and ESPN Rams reporter Nick Wagoner put together a tale of the tape on Peterson and Gurley.

VITALS

Peterson is 6-foot-2 and 217 pounds, with a muscular frame carved through years of notoriously fierce workouts. It’s debatable whether Peterson has the same top-end speed he had in his younger years (he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.4 seconds at the NFL scouting combine in 2007). But the running back still has a haymaker of a stiff-arm.

Listed at 6-foot-1, 226 pounds, Gurley cuts the shadow of a classic, big physical back but with sprinter’s speed. Although he didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the combine, Gurley’s estimated time is 4.4 seconds, but he believes he can run faster. The 21-year-old rookie is not even a year removed from the torn ACL he suffered last year at Georgia.

RUNNING STYLE

Peterson dropped to seventh in the 2007 draft in part because of concerns that his upright running style would lead to injuries, but he’s been relatively durable in the NFL while taking his fair share of contact. Peterson is as likely to go through you as around you, and though he might not be the most disciplined back, he runs with a violence that makes him difficult for defenders to handle when he hits the line of scrimmage at full speed.

Gurley has been compared to everyone from Peterson to Marshawn Lynch to Eric Dickerson but the large cross-section of comparisons makes it hard to nail down a simplistic way of describing his style. Gurley has a unique ability to make himself small and quick through the hole but big and powerful against would-be tacklers.

Todd Gurley
Todd Gurley has gained 6.1 yards per carry in his rookie season, accumulating 575 yards despite being brought along slowly.
WHAT HE DOES BEST

Peterson has some shiftiness, and certainly made much of his living on cutback runs in the Vikings’ old zone blocking scheme, but his straight-line speed and power make him difficult to bring down. On his longest run of the season — a 75-yarder against the Detroit Lions — he extended the run by about 20 yards after driving his left arm into Glover Quin’s chest, knocking the safety to the ground before Ezekiel Ansah dragged Peterson down.

Gurley prides himself on his ability to keep his legs moving and gain yards after contact. Against Cleveland on Oct. 25, Gurley had 97 yards after contact, the most by any back this season. That ability to break tackles leads to a lot of explosive plays, including a league-leading four runs of 45 or more yards this season.

REASON FOR OPTIMISM SUNDAY

Peterson had one of the biggest days of his career against the Rams three years ago, romping for 212 yards in Week 15, and said he was especially fired up to play the Rams because of how much their defenders talk during games. Peterson has surpassed five yards per carry in four of his last five games.

While Minnesota is 15th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, the Vikings are yielding 4.39 yards per carry, which ranks 25th in the league. Interestingly, the Vikings have been among the best in the league at limiting the types of big plays Gurley is used to making, which means that yards per carry average is a product of giving up yards in shorter but still positive bursts. That means Gurley and the Rams could be more consistent in this matchup.

STRONG RETURN FROM KNEE SURGERY

Peterson’s return in 2012 is now the stuff of legend. He tore his ACL on Christmas Eve 2011, and by the end of May 2012, Peterson was beating Percy Harvin in a few sprints up the hill at the Vikings’ training facility. He started Week 1, and ran for 1,353 yards in the final eight games of 2012 while playing with a sports hernia. He finished just eight yards shy of Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record, ending the season with 2,097 yards.

When Gurley was recovering from his knee injury, he used to go on YouTube to watch anything he could find on how players like Peterson and Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles rebounded from the injury. Gurley didn’t bounce back in the nine months that Peterson did, taking about a month and a half longer, but he’s actually been better in his first five games back. Gurley’s 575 yards and three touchdowns are better than Peterson’s 420 yards and two touchdowns upon returning.

ONE THING YOU DIDN’T KNOW

Peterson was an elite high school sprinter in Palestine, Texas, and his coach has said he could have competed in the Olympics had he not played football. Peterson told ESPN last December he had considered retirement during his absence from the NFL, contemplating an attempt at a 2016 Olympic bid in the 200- and 400-meter dashes.

Gurley nearly didn’t play football in high school because he decided that basketball was his first love. After moving to Tarboro, North Carolina, Gurley was a Duke basketball fan and spent more time watching hoops than football. He only took up football because he walked onto the football field looking for a ride during the 2008 season and the coaches badgered him into it

Our early look at the Rams: Vikings will be looking in the mirror

St. Louis should look quite familiar considering two of its greatest strengths are a big, fast, explosive running back and a quarterback-busting pass rush.

By Mark Craig

http://www.startribune.com/our-early-look-at-the-rams-vikings-will-be-looking-in-the-mirror/339843452/

The Vikings are 5-2 and riding their first three-game winning streak since a four-game playoff charge to end the 2012 regular season. They also return to TCF Bank Stadium, where they’re 3-0 this season and 8-3 under coach Mike Zimmer since the start of last season.

The opponent — St. Louis — should look quite familiar considering two of its greatest strengths are a big, fast, explosive running back and a quarterback-busting pass rush.

Here’s our early look at the Rams …

NEXT UP: St. Louis Rams, noon, TCF Bank Stadium. The Rams (4-3) have won two straight against Cleveland and San Francisco. They opened the season by upsetting the Seahawks 34-31 before losing at Washington (24-10) and at home to Pittsburgh (12-6). Another signature win came at Arizona (24-22) before a mostly lifeless loss at Green Bay (24-10).

KEY INJURIES: Left defensive end Chris Long (knee) has missed the last two games. William Hayes, who was questionable last week with a thigh injury, still started at Long’s spot. … Left guard Rodger Saffold missed the last two games and is on injured reserve with a shoulder injury. He has been replaced by Garrett Reynolds. … Right defensive end Robert Quinn started last week despite being questionable with a knee injury. Safety T.J. McDonald also started despite being questionable with a shoulder injury.

LAST TIME: The Mike Zimmer Era opened with the 2014 season opener at St. Louis. And what a debut it was. Cordarrelle Patterson had three carries for a team-high 102 yards and a touchdown, Matt Cassel threw two touchdown passes in a turnover-free game and free safety Harrison Smith returned an interception 81 yards for a touchdown in a 34-6 win. Adrian Peterson had 75 yards on 21 carries, but his season would end unexpectedly five days later when he became entangled in child-abuse charges.

A LOOK AT THE FILM …

OFFENSE: Wow, these two teams look a lot alike. The most obvious similarity is at running back, where the Rams have a 21-year-old version of Peterson. Todd Gurley, the 10th overall pick, is 6-1, 227 pounds. Peterson, the seventh overall pick, is 6-1, 220. Gurley is lighting up the league a year after suffering a torn ACL. Peterson lit up the league for 2,097 yards in 2012, the year after he tore an ACL. Gurley missed the first two games, didn’t start in the third game and then posted 566 yards in four starts, the most in a player’s first four starts since the merger in 1970.

Gurley is a power back with breakaway speed. And, well, you get the idea. The Rams’ offense ranks 30th overall, third in rushing, 32nd in passing and 28th in scoring. The Vikings rank 29th overall, fifth in rushing, 30th in passing and 24th in scoring.

Both teams have former big-name receivers (Kenny Britt/Cordarrelle Patterson) who have faded down the depth chart. Both have new preferred targets who have emerged this year (Tavon Austin/Stefon Diggs). Both have had to deal with injuries on the line. And both have quarterbacks who aren’t flashy but understand their teams, perform with poise, make good decisions for the most part and can lead successful late-game comebacks if they have to.

Teddy Bridgewater ranks 31st in passer rating (85.5) while Nick Foles ranks 38th (81.6). Bridgewater has thrown six touchdown passes and five interceptions. Foles has thrown seven TDs and five interceptions. Bridgwater is averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. Foles is averaging 7.0.

DEFENSE: The teams are similar here as well. The Rams rank sixth defensively, while the Vikings rank seventh. The Rams do stop the run more consistently, ranking ninth while the Vikings rank 15th but have improved while holding three straight opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing since their bye week.

Both teams rush the passer very well with extraordinary athletes and sound schemes. The Rams’ Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald rank second among end-tackle tandems with 29 sacks since the start of last season. The Vikings’ Everson Griffen and Tom Johnson rank fifth on that list with 25 sacks.

The Rams have 13 takeaways and 10 giveaways. The Vikings have nine takeaways and eight giveaways. The Rams have allowed only four field goals the past two weeks and rank fourth in points allowed (17.9). The Vikings are second in points allowed (17.4).

RANKINGS: Offense: 30th (3 rushing, 32 passing). Defense 6 (9 rushing, 10 passing). Scoring: 28th (19.3). Scoring defense: 4th (17.4).

STORYLINE: By kickoff, Peterson will have had his fill of being referred to as the second-best running back in the game. Or the old running back in the game. Meanwhile, Gurley will be extra motivated to wrestle the so-called torch from Peterson’s vice grip in his own stadium in front of his own fans. This should be a special showdown, especially for those old enough to remember when great running backs shared the league spotlight with quarterbacks.

STAT OF THE WEEK:

— 8-23

The combined record of the teams the Vikings have beaten this season. They’ve yet to beat a team with a winning record. The Rams have beaten four teams with a combined record of 14-18, including Arizona (6-2) on the road.

TURNOVER MARGIN: Plus-3 (T-8)

They have 13 takeaways and 10 giveaways.

Rams hope history doesn’t repeat itself vs. Vikings

Jim Thomas

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/football/professional/rams-hope-history-doesn-t-repeat-itself-vs-vikings/article_4f61ae15-a26b-5475-ba1d-8bbf64f0230a.html

As much as the Rams would like to burn the game from their memory, it can’t be avoided. Not this week.

In preparation for Sunday’s contest at Minnesota, in the film room they must relive last year’s 34-6 season-opening humiliation to the Vikings.

“I’d like to forget it,” defensive end Williams Hayes said.

The Rams veteran was coming off multiple offseason surgeries at the time, and had missed additional time in camp and the preseason because of a chest injury.

Looking at that game again this week, Hayes says it might be his worst performance since he arrived in St. Louis in 2012.

“I put a bad product on the field,” he said.

Small consolation, but he had plenty of company that day among his teammates. In fact, it would be difficult to imagine a worse start to what was a season of great expectations.

The storyline was that the third year would be the charm for the Jeff Fisher-Les Snead regime.

Instead, the embarrassing defeat foreshadowed another lost season of Rams football in St. Louis. Starting with that Minnesota game, the team stumbled to a 1-4 start and finished 6-10.

The margin of defeat that day matched the worst for a home season opener in franchise history. And you had to go all the way back to 1937, the inaugural year for the Rams in the NFL, to find that game — a 28-0 loss by the Cleveland Rams to Detroit.

“This is the exact opposite of our expectations. Period, point blank,” offensive lineman Rodger Saffold said after last year’s game.

“Nobody saw this coming,” defensive tackle Michael Brockers said after that contest. “It was like a snowball going downfield. It just kept rolling on …”

The Rams committed 13 penalties for 121 yards that day. Minnesota’s Cordarrelle Patterson, a wide receiver by trade, ran for 102 yards on just three carries, scoring on a 67-yard run on a play in which he lined up in the backfield.

By the start of the third quarter, the Rams were down to Austin Davis at quarterback. He had spent much of that preseason as the team’s fourth-string quarterback. Just 15 days after losing starter Sam Bradford to a season-ending knee injury, the Rams lost Bradford’s replacement — Shaun Hill — to a thigh injury against the Vikings.

So there was chaos at the QB position; Davis hadn’t thrown much to the Rams’ starting wide receivers when he entered the game.

“It was one of those things that happens,” Fisher said. “But I’d like to think we’re a little bit better in all three areas now.”

By the end of that game, it was hard to tell which was louder — the boos from the few Rams fans still in attendance or the chants of “Let’s go Vikings!” by Minnesota fans in the dome.

“It kinda spiraled out of control,” tight end Lance Kendricks said this week. “I remember we just got physically outplayed.”

About the only thing the Rams did well that day was keep the lid on the Vikings’ star running back — Adrian Peterson. He rushed for 75 yards but averaged only 3.6 yards per carry.

“After that game, I was so disappointed,” Peterson told St. Louis reporters Wednesday on a conference call. “Even though we got the ‘W,’ I was disappointed in how I allowed those guys to get free hits and stuff on me. They had me out of character.”

Because of that, Peterson said he is looking forward to playing the Rams this Sunday, in Minneapolis.

If there’s more motivation from Peterson, the same can be said for the Rams. They want to show themselves and the Vikings that they’re not the same team that was dominated last year.

“Yeah, definitely,” Kendricks said. “We took a beating that week. I think it’s important for us come out strong this week, and start fast. Because we’ve yet to start fast this year.”

Hayes said: “It’s a little bit more personal for me this week because the more I look at (that film), the more embarrassed I’m getting. So I’m just gonna go out there and try to put some good stuff on film this week.”

Twenty-two games have passed since then, but the teams still can learn from last year’s contest. They each have new starting quarterbacks. Nick Foles has replaced Bradford in St. Louis and Teddy Bridgewater has replaced Matt Cassel, who was last year’s opening-day starter for the Vikings.

There are new starters sprinkled throughout both lineups. But many familiar faces remain, and for the most part the coaching staffs and the systems are the same on offense and defense.

Fisher likened it to playing a division team the second time around in a season.

“It’s recent,” he said. “They game-planned up. We game-planned them. They made more plays than we did, so we gave up some big plays. We know Norv (Turner) very well. He’s an outstanding coordinator and he’ll have ’em ready to play.”

Turner, a former NFL head coach with Washington, Oakland, and San Diego, is Minnesota’s offensive coordinator.

If the Rams have learned anything from that game, it’s that they have to do more than just contain Peterson to win. And they can’t make the kind of mistakes they made last year, particularly the penalties, and expect to win.

“They’ve got a solid defense,” Kendricks said. “They’re very disciplined and sound in what they do.

“I think we’re such a different team now that I definitely think we’ll play up to our potential this week, especially being on a roll with two (victories) back-to-back. It’d be nice to kinda get out there and get after ‘em, and see if we can pull out a win on the road.”

Vikings vs. Rams Preview

http://www.dailynorseman.com/2015/11/5/9664070/minnesota-vikings-st-louis-rams-preview-nfl-week-9-picks

Most of the time when I start writing my weekly Vikings previews I know who I’m picking to win and I build my narrative around it. But honestly I’m a little stumped this time around. I have already gone back and forth with my pick more times than Aaliyah. The Vikings and Rams have some amazing strengths, glaring weaknesses, and striking similarities. Both teams are also trying to beat formidable odds to fight their way into the playoffs. Minnesota and St. Louis are currently the 6th and 7th seeds in the NFC respectively; the Vikings have made the playoffs in only three of the past ten seasons while the Rams haven’t qualified for the postseason since 2004. Beating that 800-pound gorilla is no easy task for these teams but both seem like they could be on the cusp.

As they say in boxing, styles make fights. Since this looks like it could be a good old fashioned slobberknocker, I’m going to the tale of the tape to help decide. I’ll break down the major matchups in this bout of up and coming contenders to see who I’ll pick. Let’s start with the main event.

Adrian Peterson vs. Todd Gurley

It’s the classic boxing movie matchup–the veteran champion out to prove he still has it versus the undefeated up-and-comer looking to show the world that he’s the new standard. Adrian Peterson has arguably been the best running back in the league since he burst on the scene in 2007. Todd Gurley has only played five professional football games in his career but it already looks like he’s gunning for Peterson’s title. Exactly two running backs in NFL history have rushed for over 100 yards in four of their first five games; both will be starting at TCF Bank Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

If you have read anything about Gurley in the past couple weeks, you’d think that he was Adrian Peterson 3.0–an unstoppable blend of Gale Sayers, LeBron James, Barry Sanders, and Wolverine. This was an actual quote from an SB Nation article. Not Turf Show Times, but from our parent site:

Todd Gurley doesn’t really need blockers. He just needs some vague hint of sunshine to ping-pong his way through a sweaty mass of humanity.

Look. I get it. The dude is electrifying. He’s fast, he can break tackles, and if you don’t cover your gaps, this happens:

But Gurley’s season has been more similar to Peterson’s than you might think. Just like AP, Gurley has toiled behind some pretty poor blocking and has been stopped near the line of scrimmage on a large portion of his runs. Like Peterson, most of Gurley’s gaudy stats are racked up on a handful of “home run” plays while the rest of his touches have minimal success.

IF YOU HAVE READ ANYTHING ABOUT GURLEY IN THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS, YOU’D THINK THAT HE WAS ADRIAN PETERSON 3.0–AN UNSTOPPABLE BLEND OF GALE SAYERS, LEBRON JAMES, BARRY SANDERS, AND WOLVERINE.
Speaking of success, Football Outsiders has a statistic for running backs called Success Rate. You can read all about what goes into it here, but basically it represents a back’s consistency. Success Rate is measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. Gurley has a Success Rate of 45% this season. Peterson: 44%.

Am I still terrified of what Gurley might do? Of course. He will definitely be the #1 priority for the Vikings defense on Sunday. But let’s hold off on comparing him to Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson for now.

Advantage: Push. Which is pretty amazing since we’re comparing one of the best backs ever to a guy that has played five games.

Stefon Diggs vs. Tavon Austin

This is like one of those flyweight matchups on the undercard that nobody pays attention to until they start throwing haymakers for ten rounds. Both Diggs and Austin were only supposed to make noise in the return game this year; neither was being taken seriously as a viable wide receiver threat this early in their careers.

It’s obviously time to take both of them seriously. Austin gives the St. Louis offense another home run threat every time he touches the ball. He quickly turned a simple screen into points last week against the 49ers:

Austin might be a better big play threat but Diggs is already doing everything you could ask for from a young receiver.

Advantage: Vikings. But just a slight one, and only if Diggs is 100%. (I hate writing these previews to post on Thursday when it comes to injuries.)

The rest of the passing targets

This is the undercard fight that only got booked because one of the promoters owed a favor to one of the fighters’ second cousins. Outside of Diggs and Austin both teams have a murderer’s row of disappointment when it comes to pass catchers.

Mike Wallace, Jarius Wright, Kyle Rudolph, and Charles Johnson have combined for 719 yards this season. Antonio Brown has 718 and he had to deal with Mike Vick and Landry Jones for a month! It isn’t any better for the Rams: Jared Cook, Kenny Britt, Stedman Bailey, and Brian Quick have combined for 693. There are six individual receivers with more yardage this season. Yikes.

Advantage: Nobody. Both fighters threw in the towel here.

Teddy Bridgewater vs. Nick Foles

This should have been the fight right before the main event between two young fighters poised to contend for the belt in the coming years. Instead it looks like two overly cautious fighters throwing listless jabs at each other as they timidly circle the ring.

Bridgeboa–er, Bridgewater–has been solid most of the year. His numbers haven’t been great most weeks but they really shouldn’t be with how Norv Turner is currently running the offense. Teddy ranks towards the bottom in most cumulative statistics yet lands towards the middle in more qualitative numbers like Pro Football Focus rating and Total QBR. I was a little critical of Bridgewater last week on Twitter and was unsurprisingly chastised by Teddy Truthers for it. I still think the Chicago game was probably his worst overall game of the season even when you include the fourth quarter heroics. He missed some open deep balls, which isn’t a new development. What was new last week is the fact that he had more time to pass and the Bears’ pass coverage was better than expected. Bridgewater didn’t fare well with his new experiences.

It’s almost like he was so used to getting chased if his first couple reads were covered that he didn’t know what to do with the extra time.

Teddy has been playing “good enough to win” for the past few weeks. He’ll need to play significantly better for that to remain true over the next stretch of games.

Meanwhile, there isn’t much debate around the fact that Nick Foles has been underwhelming in his first season with the Rams. To be fair, he isn’t asked to do as much in his offense and his receivers aren’t doing him many favors either. And he’s still probably an upgrade over Sam Bradford. But Foles ranks behind Bridgewater on most advanced metrics and his play backs it up. He hasn’t been awful, but there have been too many passes and decisions that leave you scratching your head.

Advantage: Vikings. But not as big as it could be.

Defenses

At first glance this heavyweight bout seems incredibly close. The Vikings are allowing the second fewest points per game; the Rams are allowing the fourth fewest. The Rams allow the sixth fewest yards per game in the league; the Vikings are one spot behind. But the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings tell a different story. Their complex ranking system takes compares a team’s performance on every play based on the situation and the strength of opponent.

Since most of the Vikings’ wins have come over teams from the bottom of these rankings, the opponent adjustment hasn’t been kind to Minnesota. The Rams defense ranks 4th while Minnesota’s is all the way down at 24th. Aaron Schatz further explained why the Vikings have such a low DVOA last week:

Every week, the Vikings’ Week 1 loss looks worse as the 49ers play like garbage and the opponent adjustments gradually get stronger.

Pretty hard to argue that. Except everyone knows that Week 1 didn’t actually count because that stupid really late Monday Night Football game is always screwy and the Vikings thought it was their sixth preseason game so that’s why their DVOA isn’t as good as it should be! (Right?!)

That said, the Rams still probably have a better overall defense. I have been saying all season that Minnesota’s defensive line is their deepest and most talented unit. It might not even be the deepest or most talented defensive line in the game Sunday. Depending on the injury status of Robert Quinn and Chris Long, St. Louis can trot out about a half dozen very formidable weapons to get after the quarterback. Bridgewater won’t need to worry about the extra time he had in Chicago this time around.

While Vikings linebackers are a step above what the Rams have to offer (as long as Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks are OK to play), the Rams definitely have the advantage in the secondary. Janoris Jenkins, Trumaine Johnson, Rodney McLeod, and T.J McDonald are all having solid seasons. Mixing a good secondary with a great pass rush is a lethal combination for opposing offenses.

And remember, the Rams defense is run by Gregg Williams, whom Vikings fans should be intimately familiar with thanks to the 2009 NFC Championship Game. (Fun fact: the extra G in Gregg stands for GODDAMN CHEATER.) He might be a horrible person but he’s still pretty good at calling up defenses.

Advantage: Rams. And it’s fairly significant.

Offensive lines

This is one those ridiculous “Toughman” fights where two overweight guys slug it out and it lasts two rounds at the most because nobody blocks. We have spent plenty of time griping about the Vikings offensive line this season. Either the run blocking isn’t opening enough holes for Peterson or the pass blocking isn’t giving Teddy enough time. Just know that it could be worse. Much worse. It feels like a large majority of the league has the same kind of complaints about their offensive lines, and Pro Football focus agrees. The Vikings actually are in the top half of the league in their rankings, coming in at 14th.

The Rams offensive line is decidedly not in the top half at 27th. Gurley is going to have to earn every yard he gets on Sunday.

Advantage: Vikings. No, really!

Schedules

It’s true that the Rams haven’t been playing a murderer’s row of a schedule either over the past couple weeks. To borrow another boxing term, St. Louis and Minnesota have been beating up on tomato cans. The Browns and 49ers are every bit as bad as the Bears and Lions. But the Rams have something the Vikings don’t–a victory over a team with a winning record (Arizona in Week 4). On the road, no less. They also upset the Seahawks in Week 1. That seemed a lot more impressive at the time, but Seattle will likely be favored when they visit Minnesota in a month. The overall DVOA rankings agree: St. Louis is 13th while the Vikings are 27th.

Advantage: Rams. Mostly because of that damn 49ers game.

Turnovers and Special Teams

When everything else seems so closely matched, these are the two factors that can make the difference on the judges’ scorecards. Turnover margin for the Rams (+3) and Vikings (+1) is basically a wash. However, the Vikings have had some pretty incredible fumble luck through the first seven games. They have recovered 6 of their 9 fumbles on offense and had recovered every opponent fumble up until Marc Mariani’s two muffed punts last week.

I never thought I would say this a month ago, but Minnesota has a distinct advantage in the kicking game. Blair Walsh has been making just about everything while Greg Zuerlein is only 9 of 15 on field goals this season. Scoring should be at a premium and Walsh’s leg will likely be called upon to score some very important points.

Advantage: Vikings. You can keep Greg the Leg.

Hopefully the judges scored this one right, because I think the loser of this game has a very good chance to be KO’ed from the playoff picture. The road doesn’t get any easier for the Vikings over the next several weeks, so they need to win this prizefight.

Prediction

Vikings 16, Rams 13

Rams look to erase memory of last time they played Vikings

Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/23285/rams-look-to-erase-memory-of-last-time-they-played-minnesota

EARTH CITY, Mo. — It’s been approximately a season and a half since the Minnesota Vikings walloped the St. Louis Rams on the opening day of the 2014 season.

Much has changed for both sides since the Vikings’ 34-6 shellacking of the Rams at the Edward Jones Dome. In football time, a season and a half is a long time, but a game like that isn’t easy to remove from the memory bank.

“You really just have that taste in your mouth that the last time you went up against him, they punched us right in the mouth out of the gate,” linebacker James Laurinaitis said. “I think it’s always good to go back and revisit those feelings because still when I watch the tape it gets under your skin a little bit.”

The Vikings went on to a mediocre season while the Rams actually dipped to 6-10, but neither made the playoffs. As they prepare for Sunday’s game at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, both teams are in much better positions. In fact, the 5-2 Vikings and 4-3 Rams are currently sitting in the sixth and seventh spots in the NFC playoff race. That means the loser would drop from that perch with the winner stepping into the last playoff spot with half a season to go.

So clearly there has been progress made on both sides, but that doesn’t mean the Rams haven’t taken a peek at a performance Laurinaitis called “embarrassing” earlier this week. In fact, defensive end William Hayes says there’s plenty to learn from revisiting such an atrocious effort.

“You can learn the things that you don’t need to do on the football field,” Hayes said. “It was bad football all phases. Minnesota has kind of had their way with us the past couple of years since I’ve been here so hopefully we can turn things around.”

Turning things around should be a task made easier by some of the many differences in both teams since that meeting. The Rams entered the game not knowing what to expect from the quarterback position as Shaun Hill had just stepped in for the injured Sam Bradford two weeks earlier. Hill then suffered an injury of his own in the first half and was replaced by Austin Davis.

The Rams defense that had such high hopes did a solid job against running back Adrian Peterson but couldn’t keep wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson from burning them with big plays. The Rams compounded their issues by committing 13 penalties for 121 yards.

“I just remember that overall they had too many explosive plays,” Laurinaitis said. “I don’t think we tackled very well. We made Patterson look untackleable. He took a toss from the backfield and did speed sweeps, they did everything against us.”

By the time it was over, the Vikings had outgained the Rams 355 to 318 and the Rams were minus-2 in turnover differential. The 28-point defeat tied the worst margin for a home opener in franchise history.

Hard to watch? Certainly. Important to revisit this week? Absolutely.

“Well, you look at it,” coach Jeff Fisher said. “It’s no different than for example, us playing a division game, the second game. So, it’s recent. They game-planned us. We game-planned them. They made more plays than we did, so we gave up some big plays. We know (Vikings offensive coordinator) Norv (Turner) very well. He’s an outstanding coordinator and he’ll have them ready to play. So, we’re going to have to play really good on defense.”

And offense. And special teams.

Both teams now employ new quarterbacks with Minnesota turning to Teddy Bridgewater soon after last year’s meeting and St. Louis trading for Nick Foles in the offseason. The Rams have also revamped the rest of the offense and added rookie Todd Gurley at running back. Minnesota has had a rookie emerge, too, in the form of wide receiver Stefon Diggs while Patterson has been relegated to spot duty.

One thing that didn’t change is the head coaches, though the Rams do have a new offensive coordinator in Frank Cignetti.

“I think it can help both teams a little bit, because it’s a lot of the same systems, basically on both sides of the ball,” Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer said. “But, as far as how we’re different, I think we have a better understanding of the systems right now. Obviously, the quarterback is different. We have different weapons at receiver. Defensively, I think our guys probably feel a little more comfortable, would be the way to say it. But, I guess that’s the two things I would say off the top of my head.”

When Hayes was first asked about the game from last year, he offered a simple response.

“I’d like to forget it,” Hayes said.

Hayes and his teammates will get their chance to wipe that memory away on Sunday afternoon.

For Rams to beat Vikings, the little things will make a difference

Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/23329/for-rams-to-beat-vikings-the-little-things-will-make-a-difference

EARTH CITY, Mo. — The St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings kick off Sunday at 1 p.m. ET from TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Here are three things to watch in what figures to be a closely matched game between two NFC contenders:

1. It’s always the turnovers: Look, it’s not breaking any sort of revelatory ground to say that turnovers are a key to the game. They’re a key to every game every week. But we’re going with the cliche here because this is one of those rare games when neither team has a clear advantage. The statistics show two evenly-matched teams. Even in something like red zone defense where you think the Rams might have a decided advantage because they are the best in the league, the Vikings aren’t far behind at fourth.

So even just a plus-one differential in the turnover margin could be the difference between winning and losing. The Rams have been a bit better than the Vikings at taking it away this year with 13 to Minnesota’s nine, but the Rams have given it away 10 times to the Vikings’ eight. All told, the Rams are plus-three and Minnesota is plus-one. It’s not a substantial difference but in a closely matched game, a fumble or an interception at the right time could make all the difference.

2. Getting their kicks: Here’s another small detail that might not seem like a big deal but could be here. Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein has had some rough moments the past few weeks and he’s just 9-of-15 on field goals for the season. Granted, many of those misses have been from 50-plus yards, but he’s also missed a 35-yard attempt and had another kick blocked last week.

And while Zuerlein has made all 14 of his extra-point attempts, he’s had a history of struggling outdoors. On the other side, Minnesota’s Blair Walsh has hit 17-of-19 on field goals but does have a pair of misses on extra points.

Both teams will need their kickers to be on point as a point or three could tip the scales the other direction.

3. An offensive evolution: It’s no secret that the Rams’ offense revolves primarily around running back Todd Gurley and, to a lesser extent, receiver Tavon Austin. Both can and should continue to be the focal points of the offense. But now that we’ve seen what that duo can do when used in tandem, there should be some opportunities for others to have some success, especially in the passing game.

The Rams played it coy this week when asked about what Gurley and Austin might loosen up, but one can logically point to the middle of the field as an option. The Rams are the second-least productive team in the NFL when it comes to throwing it between the hashes. That might mean some opportunities for tight ends like Jared Cook or Lance Kendricks or slot receiver Stedman Bailey.

No matter who it is, some production from a skill position player not named Gurley and Austin would go a long way in helping the Rams get to 5-3.