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Packers’ Next Opponent: St. Louis Rams scouting report
Green Bay — Under coach Jeff Fisher, the St. Louis Rams have won as a 9-point underdog against Denver in 2014, as a 7 ½-point underdog at Indianapolis in 2013 and as a 7-point underdog Sunday in Arizona.
Now Fisher’s Rams would be able to top those upsets, at least on paper, with a victory Sunday over the unbeaten Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. The Packers are favored by 9 ½.
“St. Louis, 23-20,” said an executive in personnel for an AFC team. “Because the Rams can get to Aaron Rodgers with their front four and their secondary has good coverage ability. The Rams also have plenty of playmakers to be productive running and passing.”
The Rams’ formidable rush was the reason a pair of assistant coaches for teams that played St. Louis forecast a close game that will be won by the Packers, 17-10.
“Anybody that thinks St. Louis is easy…if you’ve got a defensive line like they’ve got, if you just don’t beat yourselves, you’ve got a chance to be in every game,” one coach said. “You’ve never seen a front like these guys.
“Despite Aaron Rodgers and all that crew, I’m going to say it’s not going to be a high-scoring game. The Rams’ offense is nothing special but this running back is really good.”
Not quite 11 months removed from reconstructive knee surgery, Todd Gurley exploded in the second half for most of his 146 yards in 19 carries as the Rams beat the Cardinals, 24-22.
“Gurley’s going to make some yards if you don’t get him hemmed in, but I think the Packers will be able to do that pretty effectively,” the other coach said. “But I’ll tell you what. They’re going to have to do some pass blocking against that rushing line. They’re really good.”
A personnel man for an NFC club called for a 27-10 triumph for Green Bay.
“Gurley has star ability and, behind an average at best offensive line, will stress Green Bay a little early,” he said. “But St. Louis can’t consistently block Green Bay’s pressures and they don’t have a No. 1 wide receiver.
“Rodgers, with his quick release, mobility and command of the offense will make St. Louis’ D-line less effective. Green Bay’s receivers and tight end can take advantage of the Rams’ linebackers and average secondary.”
OFFENSE
Scheme
First-year coordinator Frank Cignetti, who coached QBs alongside Mike McCarthy in New Orleans from 2000-’01, calls the plays. The new zone-blocking run game focuses on getting the back at least to the hole. Cignetti uses bunch sets of receivers and tear sweeps featuring the exciting Tavon Austin. The Rams are tied for seventh in turnovers (four), 25th in points (18.5) and 32nd in yards (287.8).
Receivers
The return of Brian Quick (6-3 ½, 218) last week from a mid-2014 shoulder injury provides a fourth capable WR. The best probably is former Titan Kenny Britt (6-3, 223), the 30th pick in 2009. He has 34-inch arms, can get deep, is a gigantic target and runs hard after the catch. Austin (5-8 ½, 176), the eighth pick in ’13, has instant acceleration, a 40 time of 4.30 and stop-start quickness. The Rams use him like Seattle used Percy Harvin: slot, reverses, bubble screens, etc. Stedman Bailey (5-10, 193), a third-round pick in ’13, runs exquisite routes and catches everything. His speed, however, is average (4.53) and he’s too thin for heavy exposure inside. Quick, a second-round pick in ’12, finally was starting to emerge last year when injury struck. He remains big, fast and unrefined. Former Titans TE Jared Cook (6-4 ½, 254) runs extremely well, has 35 ¾ arms and stretches defenses vertically. His hands are shaky, however, and his blocking is marginal. Lance Kendricks (6-3, 250), who played at Milwaukee King and UW, is a four-year starter. He lacks some size and also will drop, but is athletic, catches consistently and runs about 4.6. TE-FB Cory Harkey (6-4, 259) lacks ball skills but gets after people as a point-of-attack blocker.
Offensive line
The leader, LT Greg Robinson (6-5, 332), is far from being a great player after being the No. 2 pick in the ’14 draft. He has long arms (35), strong hands and a mean streak. Just 22, he’s still learning how to play. His feet are good, not great. The other solid regular is RG Rodger Saffold (6-4 ½, 332), a second-round pick in ’10 whose six-year career as a starter has been interrupted frequently by injury. He still moves well and has the mass to anchor, but most guards are more physical. Two rookies, LG Jamon Brown (6-3 ½, 323) and RT Rob Havenstein (6-7 ½, 321), and C Tim Barnes (6-3 ½, 306) are first-year starters. Brown, a third-round pick, takes up space, has long arms (34 3/8) and is effective in close quarters. Barnes is smart, agile and strong enough but struggles getting up to the LB level and working in space. Havenstein, the former Badger drafted in the second round, is another mauler. So far, he has held up OK.
Quarterbacks
Nick Foles (6-5, 243), the Eagles’ third-round pick in ’12, started 25 games over three years, posting a 15-10 record and passer rating of 94.5. He was magnificent (rating of 149.5, 38 yards rushing) in Game 9 of 2013 when the Eagles won at Lambeau Field, 27-13. On March 10, coach Chip Kelly traded Foles plus second- and fourth-round picks to St. Louis for QB Sam Bradford and a No. 5 pick. After four starts, Foles ranks 15th at 96.5. His arm strength, touch and accuracy are adequate. He takes few chances and makes adequate decisions. He scored 29 on the Wonderlic intelligence test. His 40 time is a ponderous 5.1. Case Keenum (6-1, 205), who started 10 games for Houston in 2013-’14 (2-8, 76.8 rating) is No. 2. He has a weak arm but isn’t afraid to use it.
Running backs
Rookie Todd Gurley (6-0 ½, 227), the 10th pick, broke out Sunday in his second game since undergoing ACL surgery Nov. 15. He has breakaway speed, a downhill approach, tremendous body control and a workhorse mentality. He’s somewhat like a young Steven Jackson. Gurley played 36 of 53 snaps, leaving 15 for third-down back Benny Cunningham (5-9 ½, 217) and two for backup Tre Mason (5-8 ½, 207). Cunningham has excellent hands, probably handles the blitz better than Gurley and exudes toughness. Mason, a third-round pick in ’14, led the team in rushing (765, 4.3) last year. He’s quicker than fast.
DEFENSE
Scheme
Flamboyant Gregg Williams, a former head coach in Buffalo and coordinator for five other teams, rejoined Jeff Fisher in 2014. He believes in a pressure 4-3 defense that often employs just three linemen on passing downs. His base coverages in the first month have been off-man and Cover 2. The Rams rank 13th in points (22.3), tied for 13th in takeaways (six) and 16th in yards (355.5).
Defensive line
St. Louis is loaded with four first-round starters. Three-technique DT Aaron Donald (6-1, 290) and DE Robert Quinn (6-4, 264) might be the NFL’s best at their positions. Donald ran a phenomenal 4.66, has exceptional quickness off the ball, great balance, goes all-out all the time and knows how to finish. The best thing to do is run at him. Quinn, a right end only, is a remarkable athlete with 34-inch arms, 4.64 speed and an expanding repertoire of moves. No longer is he just speed. He’s working inside and power-rushing, too. NT Michael Brockers (6-5, 326), only 24, uses 35-inch arms to stack and shed effectively at the point. His rush isn’t bad, either. Chris Long (6-3, 268), the graybeard at 30, is smart (Wonderlic of 34), technically superior and tenacious. He rushes well with power or speed. Former Titan William Hayes (6-3, 278) has 25 sacks in 7½ seasons and is first off the bench. He wins mostly with power but can and will take an edge to the QB. Versatile Ethan Westbrooks (6-3 ½, 267), a rookie free agent in ’14, isn’t sound against the run but don’t sleep on him. He’s a tough, long-armed, natural rusher. Former Lions DT Nick Fairley (6-4, 308) is just 27, but injuries and weight issues appear to have robbed him of his physical edge.
Linebackers
The Rams took a major hit Sunday when WLB Alec Ogletree suffered a broken ankle. He played every snap, had 24 more tackles than any other Ram and was extremely valuable given his terrific speed. It means that SLB Akeem Ayers (6-2 ½, 255), who is averaging just 16.8 snaps, must replace Ogletree. A former Titan-Patriot, Ayers is a fluid athlete with 4.75 speed and rush skill. Hard-hitting Jo-Lonn Dunbar (6-0 ½, 235), a productive 63-game starter for the Saints and Rams from 2008-’14, was re-signed Tuesday. He knows the system and might start at SLB. MLB James Laurinaitis (6-2, 248), a durable seven-year starter, runs the defense, competes hard and never leaves the field. He isn’t a lusty hitter but gets people down and is a big-play threat.
Secondary
It’s possible that SS Mark Barron (6-1, 217), drafted No. 7 by Tampa Bay in ’12, will take many of Ogletree’s snaps in nickel. He’s small to handle a steady diet of Eddie Lacy but he is tough, physical and knows his way around the box. The Bucs traded Barron last October because his speed wasn’t conducive for playing off the hashes. Williams has always had a hybrid player to blitz, cover and tackle. SS T.J. McDonald (6-2 ½, 217), a third-round pick in ’13, is a reckless hitter who is slower than Barron and must play near the line. He gets exposed in space. Improving FS Rodney McLeod (5-9 ½, 195), a three-year starter, was an undrafted free agent. He’s undersized and runs just 4.60, but his range seems better and his game is approaching respectability. RC Janoris Jenkins (5-10, 198), a second-round pick in ’12, is a gifted cover man with 4.43 speed. His keen instincts can lead to big plays or big mistakes. LC Trumaine Johnson (6-2, 208), a third-round pick in ’12, tries to intimidate receivers downfield. He runs just 4.55, will short-circuit and tries to tackle high. No. 3 CB Lemarcus Joyner (5-8, 184), a second-round pick in ’14, is smart and tough in the slot but isn’t sudden.
Special teams
K Greg Zuerlein, a four-year regular, has a big leg and is solid. P Johnny Hekker, another four-year regular, made the Pro Bowl in ’13 and is off to another fine start for fourth-year coordinator John Fassel. Tavon Austin can be dynamite on punt returns. Benny Cunningham is a power runner on kickoffs. LB Daren Bates, Joyner and Barron excel.
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GAME-BREAKER
When West Virginia’s Tavon Austin entered the draft in 2013, he was compared by some scouts to Reggie Bush and Randall Cobb. Primarily a wide receiver, he rushed for 344 yards against Oklahoma in 2012. Austin scored four rushing TDs, three receiving TDs and two returning TDs in 28 games during his first pro two seasons. His impact seems to have increased this year judged by the four he’s scored in the first four games. On Sunday, he caught a pair of 12-yard TD passes in posting the second-best receiving game (six for 96) of his career. In the opener, he returned a punt 75 yards for a TD against Seattle.
WEAKEST LINK
When the season started the Rams had by far the least experienced offensive line in the league. Their five starters had just 72 starts: 60 for RG Rodger Saffold, 12 for LT Greg Robinson and four for C Tim Barnes. In contrast, the Packers’ starters had 287 starts under their belts, including playoffs; one of their backups, Don Barclay, had 21. Under Paul Boudreau, an O-line coach with 29 years of NFL experience for seven teams, the Rams rank 16th in sack percentage (six allowed) and second in yards per rush (4.55). The unit won’t wow anyone with its talent, but so far it has been at least functional.
McGINN’S VIEW
Few NFL coaches know more about the game’s history than Jeff Fisher.
He won a Super Bowl ring as a safety with the Bears in 1985. He has either served or consulted on the NFL Competition Committee since 2000. This is his 21st season as an NFL coach.
Fisher knows full well that some teams have won Super Bowls with an abundance of depth in the defensive line. He appears to be following that strategy in St. Louis.
Of the Rams’ eight defensive linemen, five were drafted in the first round. Fisher selected two since taking charge in 2012: Michael Brockers in ’12 (14th pick) and Aaron Donald in ’14 (13th).
In March, Fisher gave oft-injured Nick Fairley $1.5 million guaranteed to leave Detroit as a free agent. Prior to Fisher’s hiring, the Rams drafted Chris Long with the second pick in 2008 and Robert Quinn with the 14th pick in ’11.
The Rams’ adjusted salary cap of $144.67 million includes $46.756 million for the eight D-linemen. That’s almost one-third of their payroll being spent on one position group.
In the last 30 years, three organizations that won more than one Super Bowl come to mind for their hoarding of defensive linemen.
The ’84 49ers kept all nine active in their rout of Miami. The starters, Lawrence Pillers, Manu Tuiasosopo and Dwaine Board, were backed by Fred Dean, Gary “Big Hands” Johnson, Jim Stuckey, Jeff Stover, Michael Carter and Louie Kelcher.
The ’92 Cowboys demolished Buffalo with Tony Tolbert, Tony Casillas, Russell Maryland and Charles Haley as starters and Jim Jeffcoat, Jimmie Jones, Chad Hennings and Leon Lett as backups.
The ’11 Giants shocked New England with Justin Tuck, Linval Joseph, Chris Canty and Jason Pierre-Paul backed by Osi Umenyiora, Dave Tollefson, Rocky Bernard and Jimmy Kennedy.
It remains to be seen if the Rams can build an offense to go with what can be a dominating front. At least they’re following a blueprint that has worked.
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