Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Rams Huddle › Rams of this moment have 3 Air Raid qbs…can Goff transition?
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May 1, 2016 at 9:31 pm #43247
znModeratorCan Rams No. 1 pick Jared Goff defy Air Raid QB’s shaky history?
Over the course of a three-year collegiate career at Cal, in which he shattered school records with video-game stats, carried an offense otherwise devoid of talent through a football renaissance, and rocketed to the top of the NFL draft, Jared Goff took exactly one snap under center.
It was a third-down pass, last season against Washington. It fell incomplete.
Perhaps, in the grand scheme of what made Goff worthy of the draft’s No. 1 pick, this seems like an extraordinarily minor detail. Coaches rave about how he “checks all the boxes,” and in terms of natural tools, it’s hard to dispute their claims. His accuracy, especially on throws outside the hashmarks, looks effortless. With preternatural instincts, his calm navigation of the pocket is otherwise unheard of from prospects his age. His poise and intangibles, forged through two difficult losing seasons in Berkeley, seem to foreshadow a franchise quarterback-in-the-making.
“He has a skill set that is special,” Rams coach Jeff Fisher said. “He sees things, has a quick release, understands the QB position and he gets rid of the football. When you look at his body at work, it’s impressive.”
But about that one snap …
Spread concepts, such as those in Goff’s collegiate offense, are hardly a new trend in college football. Over the past five years, the number of snaps collegiate quarterbacks have taken under center has plummeted by more than 40 percent. And at Cal, where Coach Sonny Dykes has installed his version of the “Air Raid” offense, quarterbacks operate pretty much exclusively out of a no-huddle, up-tempo, four-wideout, shotgun look that relies heavily on the pass to spread out defenses.
Pioneered by legendary Kentucky coach Hal Mumme and current Washington State coach Mike Leach, the Air Raid is known to produce high-scoring games and head-turning stats in order to disguise other inefficiencies, and that was certainly true at Cal during Goff’s tenure. Last season, Goff threw for 300-plus yards in 10 of Cal’s 13 games and three or more touchdowns in eight, in spite of a patchwork offensive line and serious lack of weapons.
What the Air Raid isn’t known for is producing viable NFL quarterbacks.
Among the reasons to question the Rams’ move to wager the future on Goff, this is perhaps the most alarming. Since 1999, when another Air Raid product, Kentucky’s Tim Couch, went No. 1 overall to the Browns, only two true Air Raid quarterbacks were selected in the first round, prior to this draft. Both – Johnny Manziel and Brandon Weeden – are now considered colossal busts.
The rest of the Air Raid’s recent history in the NFL is, more or less, a graveyard of failed quarterbacks. Only Rams quarterback Nick Foles, who ran an Air Raid offense at Arizona, owns a career QB rating of better than 80. But when asked to play under center in St. Louis last season, even he devolved into arguably the NFL’s worst starting signal caller.
The most encouraging recent example of an Air Raid transition to the NFL might actually be the guy who took Foles’ place, Case Keenum.
But the reality with Air Raid quarterbacks so far has been bleak: None has lasted more than seven seasons in the NFL.
Why this is the case is far less clear. Some argue that the progression-based system on which the Air Raid is predicated makes the quarterback’s job easier than usual in college, setting them up for a rude awakening in the NFL. Others suggest navigating the adjustments that come from snapping under center – with footwork, pre-snap reads, and the like – are drastic, sometimes insurmountable changes.
Leach, however, rejects these premises. As one of the godfathers of the system, he takes issue with the NFL’s bemoaning of spread quarterbacks.
“The entire idea is ridiculous and absurd,” Leach said. “The best opportunity to succeed, I think, No. 1, is to throw as many balls as possible and read as many defenses as possible.”
Dykes, on the other hand, understands the concern from an NFL standpoint. But while other quarterbacks put up eye-popping stats because of the system, Dykes is certain that Goff’s skill set and measurables – like Couch – far surpass that of the usual Air Raid signal caller.
Of the recent quarterbacks who went on to succeed in the Air Raid, only Couch, former Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell, and Jets quarterback Geno Smith were more touted as high school recruits. Rivals slotted Goff eighth among pro-style quarterbacks in 2013, in spite of his then-sinewy, 178-pound frame. The measurables, even then, were apparent.
“I don’t know that many Air Raid guys in the past have fit that (NFL) mold as well as him,” Dykes said.
More than typical Air Raid quarterbacks, Goff was trusted with making pre-snap reads, which, to Leach’s point, should prove valuable for his transition to the NFL. Depending on the defense’s alignment, Goff said he was firmly “in control,” with the responsibility to shift protections, audible to a run or alternate pass play and call individual hot routes for his receivers.
It’s what happens after the snap, though, that has the Rams brass convinced Goff can successfully transition to a pro-style offense.
Few were as poised in the face of a near-constant rush as Goff, who was under pressure on 124 dropbacks last season. On those snaps, he was sacked 27 times and was intercepted three times, while completing an impressive 46 percent of his passes. Meanwhile, the other quarterback selected atop the draft, Carson Wentz, completed only 28 percent of his passes under pressure.
In the red zone, Goff might actually be the most successful quarterback the Air Raid has seen. Last season, he threw 28 touchdowns with zero interceptions and completed nearly 60 percent of his attempts inside the 20-yard-line. Of NFL quarterbacks who threw at least 70 passes inside the red zone in 2015, only Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers proved that accurate.
On a third-down play against Texas last September, both of these principles were put to the test.
As soon as the ball was snapped from the Texas 7-yard-line, the pocket collapsed and defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway nearly wrapped up Goff. But he evaded the tackle, rolled out to his left – his weak side – and delivered a laser past a defender and safely to his wideout at the edge of the end zone. It’s a scenario that played out again and again over Goff’s final season, often with the same jaw-dropping result.
“There’s a natural instinct to anticipate, to get the ball out quickly, read coverages quickly, get to the second and third reads quickly,” Rams general manager Les Snead said. “There’s some DNA that just comes naturally. Whether you’re in an Air Raid offense or not, you notice that special quality in players.”
Even with that unique ability, the questions about Goff’s adjustment to a pro-style offense, in light of recent history, are certainly founded. The Rams ran more plays under center than any team in the NFL last season, and there’s no indication that they plan to change that. In 2013 and 2014, the Rams had the second-fewest combined dropbacks in the league.
Goff is well aware of this unseemly history and the fate that awaits him in Los Angeles. Since declaring for the draft, he has practiced exclusively under center. He estimates it took him just “a few days to get used to it.”
“It’s just muscle memory,” Goff said confidently.
Maybe for Jared Goff, with his instincts and his commanding pocket presence, it will be that simple. Maybe the Air Raid’s lack of success in producing quarterbacks is simply a product of the lesser quarterbacks often tasked with running the system.
Either way, with so much at stake and just one snap of under-center experience, the Rams and their new franchise quarterback better hope that history isn’t doomed to repeat itself.
Why this is the case is far less clear. Some argue that the progression-based system on which the Air Raid is predicated makes the quarterback’s job easier than usual in college, setting them up for a rude awakening in the NFL. Others suggest navigating the adjustments that come from snapping under center – with footwork, pre-snap reads, and the like – are drastic, sometimes insurmountable changes.
Leach, however, rejects these premises. As one of the godfathers of the system, he takes issue with the NFL’s bemoaning of spread quarterbacks.
“The entire idea is ridiculous and absurd,” Leach said. “The best opportunity to succeed, I think, No. 1, is to throw as many balls as possible and read as many defenses as possible.”
Dykes, on the other hand, understands the concern from an NFL standpoint. But while other quarterbacks put up eye-popping stats because of the system, Dykes is certain that Goff’s skill set and measurables – like Couch – far surpass that of the usual Air Raid signal caller.
Of the recent quarterbacks who went on to succeed in the Air Raid, only Couch, former Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell, and Jets quarterback Geno Smith were more touted as high school recruits. Rivals slotted Goff eighth among pro-style quarterbacks in 2013, in spite of his then-sinewy, 178-pound frame. The measurables, even then, were apparent.
“I don’t know that many Air Raid guys in the past have fit that (NFL) mold as well as him,” Dykes said.
More than typical Air Raid quarterbacks, Goff was trusted with making pre-snap reads, which, to Leach’s point, should prove valuable for his transition to the NFL. Depending on the defense’s alignment, Goff said he was firmly “in control,” with the responsibility to shift protections, audible to a run or alternate pass play and call individual hot routes for his receivers.
It’s what happens after the snap, though, that has the Rams brass convinced Goff can successfully transition to a pro-style offense.
Few were as poised in the face of a near-constant rush as Goff, who was under pressure on 124 dropbacks last season. On those snaps, he was sacked 27 times and was intercepted three times, while completing an impressive 46 percent of his passes. Meanwhile, the other quarterback selected atop the draft, Carson Wentz, completed only 28 percent of his passes under pressure.
In the red zone, Goff might actually be the most successful quarterback the Air Raid has seen. Last season, he threw 28 touchdowns with zero interceptions and completed nearly 60 percent of his attempts inside the 20-yard-line. Of NFL quarterbacks who threw at least 70 passes inside the red zone in 2015, only Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers proved that accurate.
On a third-down play against Texas last September, both of these principles were put to the test.
As soon as the ball was snapped from the Texas 7-yard-line, the pocket collapsed and defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway nearly wrapped up Goff. But he evaded the tackle, rolled out to his left – his weak side – and delivered a laser past a defender and safely to his wideout at the edge of the end zone. It’s a scenario that played out again and again over Goff’s final season, often with the same jaw-dropping result.
“There’s a natural instinct to anticipate, to get the ball out quickly, read coverages quickly, get to the second and third reads quickly,” Rams general manager Les Snead said. “There’s some DNA that just comes naturally. Whether you’re in an Air Raid offense or not, you notice that special quality in players.”
Even with that unique ability, the questions about Goff’s adjustment to a pro-style offense, in light of recent history, are certainly founded. The Rams ran more plays under center than any team in the NFL last season, and there’s no indication that they plan to change that. In 2013 and 2014, the Rams had the second-fewest combined dropbacks in the league.
Goff is well aware of this unseemly history and the fate that awaits him in Los Angeles. Since declaring for the draft, he has practiced exclusively under center. He estimates it took him just “a few days to get used to it.”
“It’s just muscle memory,” Goff said confidently.
Maybe for Jared Goff, with his instincts and his commanding pocket presence, it will be that simple. Maybe the Air Raid’s lack of success in producing quarterbacks is simply a product of the lesser quarterbacks often tasked with running the system.
Either way, with so much at stake and just one snap of under-center experience, the Rams and their new franchise quarterback better hope that history isn’t doomed to repeat itself.
May 1, 2016 at 9:55 pm #43248znModeratorThe most encouraging recent example of an Air Raid transition to the NFL might actually be the guy who took Foles’ place, Case Keenum.
So yeah, Keenum DID make the transition. The numbers show this. Keenum, percentage of snaps in the shotgun:
2013: 75.5%
2014: 44.1%
2015: 45.6%This may be one more reason the Rams are glad they have CK. He is not only a dedicated film junkie and student of the game, he’s an Air Raid to Play Action qb conversion.
He is going to have some value as a mentor, or so you would think.
.
May 1, 2016 at 10:54 pm #43252
InvaderRamModeratori’d like to say i have no reservations, but i’ll admit i’m not 100% confident. i don’t know. i wonder how the air raid system compares to the one marcus mariota was in at oregon.
May 1, 2016 at 11:18 pm #43253znModeratori’d like to say i have no reservations, but i’ll admit i’m not 100% confident. i don’t know.
It’s fair to wonder.
My own personal thing is that Goff will transition just fine. That’s my hunch.
But I can’t pretend that’s written in stone.
May 2, 2016 at 9:40 am #43266
nittany ramModeratori’d like to say i have no reservations, but i’ll admit i’m not 100% confident. i don’t know. i wonder how the air raid system compares to the one marcus mariota was in at oregon.
This is why I preferred Wentz. I think this is something to be concerned about. Not saying Goff won’t work out but it’s no gimmee’.
May 3, 2016 at 2:04 am #43317
MackeyserModeratorThe most encouraging recent example of an Air Raid transition to the NFL might actually be the guy who took Foles’ place, Case Keenum.
So yeah, Keenum DID make the transition. The numbers show this. Keenum, percentage of snaps in the shotgun:
2013: 75.5%
2014: 44.1%
2015: 45.6%This may be one more reason the Rams are glad they have CK. He is not only a dedicated film junkie and student of the game, he’s an Air Raid to Play Action qb conversion.
He is going to have some value as a mentor, or so you would think.
.
Yet another reason why it makes no sense that they have and are entertaining trade offers for Keenum.
And they’ve spent virtually no time developing Mannion who got aced in the whole Keenum v Davis backup QB battle and 3rd QBs get nothing during the season.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
May 4, 2016 at 10:30 am #43393znModeratorSo yeah, Keenum DID make the transition. The numbers show this. Keenum, percentage of snaps in the shotgun:
This may be one more reason the Rams are glad they have CK. He is not only a dedicated film junkie and student of the game, he’s an Air Raid to Play Action qb conversion.
It’s time to break out the ole “they must read the board” routine.
Which I do now:
…they must read the board!
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Rams, Jared Goff hoping to buck trend of ‘Air Raid’ misses
Nick Wagoner
LOS ANGELES — At first blush, the pairing of quarterback Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams doesn’t make much sense from a schematic standpoint.
Goff spent 99 percent of his college career at California lined up in the shotgun or pistol formation. The Rams spent less time in those formations than any NFL team in 2015. So if the simple act of lining up is going to be a big adjustment for Goff, then what about the more difficult pieces of learning a pro-style offense after playing in Cal’s wide open “Bear Raid” scheme for the past three years?
“It’ll obviously be an adjustment, but that’s going to be for any team and any player for that matter that is going to an NFL team,” Goff said. “I am excited for it, and I am excited to get to work and getting ready to play.”
Goff will have no shortage of adjustments to make in going from one of the college game’s most notorious spread offenses to one that has been as strictly pro-style under coach Jeff Fisher.
Goff’s collegiate career was spent directing coach Sonny Dykes’ spread system, a scheme that emphasizes tempo without huddles, plenty of three, four and even five-wideout formations and little in the way of the lengthy NFL verbiage that Goff will grow to learn. Goff took exactly one snap under center in his three years leading the Bears.
It was hard to argue with the results. Like most “Air Raid” offenses derived from originators like Mike Leach and Hal Mumme, the numbers were eye popping. Goff threw for 12,195 yards and 96 touchdowns in his three college seasons, setting multiple school records along the way.
Goff’s production compares favorably to many other top “Air Raid” quarterbacks, such as Tim Couch, Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel and Kevin Kolb. The other thing those quarterbacks have in common? Serious struggles at the NFL level.
In the growing history of uber-productive “Air Raid” college quarterbacks, the number is essentially the same as NFL signal-callers who haven’t worked out. Couch was the only previous No. 1 overall pick from an “Air Raid” offense. He posted a whopping passer rating of 75.1 in his five-year career.
Goff’s new teammate, Nick Foles, has the highest passer rating (87.3) of quarterbacks to play in the scheme in college, but that number is skewed by a huge 2013 season in Philadelphia playing in a wide-open system that had him in the shotgun on a regular basis. Foles struggled mightily in 2015 when the Rams asked him to transition to a more pro-style scheme.
Case Keenum, the quarterback the Rams have earmarked as Goff’s mentor, also came from an “Air Raid” scheme in college and had a little bit of success as the Rams starter at the end of last season. He should be able to offer Goff plenty of tips on making the transition.
Taking all of that into account, it seems risky for the Rams to bet their future so heavily on Goff. But they have their reasons.
“If you look at his college, I think there is a natural instinct to anticipate, to get the ball out quickly, to read coverages quickly, get to the second and third reads,” general manager Les Snead said. “People who can do it as fast as he can, I don’t want to say you are born with it, but mom, dad, God, somehow there is a DNA that comes natural. Whether you are an ‘Air Raid’ or however we are going to name it, I think you kind of notice that in players, whether they have that special quality or not.”
Goff took over the starting job as a freshman, and with each passing year Dykes offered him more freedom within the system. Unlike many spread schemes, Cal’s offense wasn’t just simple slants with little in the way of progressions. By Goff’s final season in 2015, he had almost absolute power to run Cal’s offense.
“I was in control of a lot as far as protections, route combos, running plays and everything in between,” Goff said. “At the line of scrimmage, I was changing a lot of stuff. I think it is something that will transition well and I can carry with me to the next level.”
Even with that experience, Goff knows he won’t be able to just flip a switch and put up the gaudy stats of his college days. After he was drafted, Goff made it clear that NFL speed is going to be a challenge, as the throwing windows will be tighter and the receivers and defensive backs will be faster.
Goff will get his first glimpse of the Rams playbook this week. In it, he’ll find plenty of quick drops asking him to get the ball out quickly and, of course, plenty of handoffs to running back Todd Gurley. New offensive coordinator Rob Boras and passing game coordinator Mike Groh will also look to add more shotgun work to help ease Goff’s adjustments.
“I think a lot of our passing concepts were similar to some of the stuff they do, from what I have seen,” Goff said. “There is a lot of stuff that translates. I haven’t seen enough of their playbooks to know exactly what it is, but from what I have seen there are a lot of passing concepts that translate, and a lot of shotgun stuff that does translate.”
As for working under center, Goff has been working on it throughout the pre-draft process.
“I think it is just muscle memory,” Goff said. “It took me a few days to get used to it, and I’ve been doing it ever since I got out of Cal. It’s not something I think there is going to be too much of an issue with.”
May 4, 2016 at 11:17 am #43398
bnwBlockedSo put the kid in the shotgun formation. Can still run the ball or dump it off. Should help the O line too. Goff has a quick delivery so that should help. Why must he be under center?
The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.
Sprinkles are for winners.
May 4, 2016 at 2:26 pm #43403znModeratorSo put the kid in the shotgun formation.
It’s precisely what they don’t do, and precisely what Keenum proved a spread qb doesn’t HAVE to do.
It’a play action offense. You don’t have a play action offense unless the qb is under center. He has to make calls at the line based on pre-snap reads to adjust the running game, and he has to drop back from center to execute play action.
As I said, Keenum already demonstrates that a spread qb can transition.
May 4, 2016 at 3:06 pm #43405znModeratorThis one addresses the whole “spread to pro style” issue at several points so it looked like it belongs here.
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Cal Football Golden Spotlight: Jared Goff NFL Scouting
ReportKeegan Dresow
With Jared Goff going #1 overall to the Los Angeles Rams, I have been asked to give my scouting report on him. Therefore, I have compiled ratings, on a scale of 1-10, somewhat in order of what I value most in a quarterback. These ratings are a combination of my personal feelings and the way that I believe scouts rate him. I will attempt to be clear in differentiating the two.
A “7” is the score for an average starting NFL quarterback. Keep in mind that a 7, therefore, is a very good score. Do not equate a “7” with a “C” grade.
A “10” is the score given to an all-time great. I almost never give a 10. An example of a “10” coming out of college would be Michael Vick’s speed. Most “normal” quarterback traits are too hard to prove in college to consider garnering a 10. Scouting current NFL players, 10s might be given to Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady for decision making and accuracy. A “9” is means that a particular trait is or projects to be great in the NFL.
The traits I will be ranking:
Decision making
Accuracy
Vision/reads progression
Anticipation
Consistency
Throwing under pressure
Footwork/pressure evasion
Leadership/intangibles
Touch
Arm Strength
Release
Proven perseverance?
System translation (how easy to compare to a pro system)
Intelligence
Size/sturdiness
Height issue?
Off field character/question marks?
Dynamic running ability
Speed
“Unique” trait?
Goff’s ratings, with an explanation and sometimes a comparison to other prospects, with a special focus on Carson Wentz:Decision making 8. This is one of the harder ratings to put a number on for Goff. Essentially, you have Goff’s entire career, and then you have Utah 2015. My guess is that scouts disregarded Utah as an anomaly, and see a quarterback who has a proven ability to make good decisions consistently. I agree with that assessment.
Accuracy 8. Somewhat linked to consistency (below). When Goff was in rhythm and in a groove, he placed the ball as well as anyone. There were times, however – often early in games – where he missed receivers that he shouldn’t have missed. He has shown the tools to improve this rating in the NFL, with an “accuracy upside” at the top of the game.
Vision/reads progression 9. This is an area where Goff shines. He showed a consistent ability to scan the field and find the correct receiver. As I will note more than once, the argument that many talking heads make that he did not make “pro” reads because he played in the “Bear Raid” offense is lazy, tired, and stale. Anyone who watched and understood the film would know that the offense often incorporated full field reads, and Goff showed great aptitude for making them.
Anticipation 9. Another area where Goff is an elite prospect. He showed the ability to anticipate throws and deliver the ball to receivers who he knew would be open by virtue of the route and their leverage against the defense.
Consistency 7. As noted in “accuracy,” this is an area where Goff can improve. At times he was great (especially when he found a rhythm later in games), but he missed enough receivers early in games (even near the end zone) to give some pause.
Throwing under pressure 9. Another elite rating. As us Cal fans know, Goff faced heavy pressure throughout his career. He proved adept at delivering the ball with good posture despite heavy pressure. He wasn’t perfect – but no one is against pressure. This is one of the traits that separates Goff as an elite prospect, as it is of vital importance in the NFL. Compare to Wentz, who faced pressure less often, and did not maintain the same fundamentals when facing it (at least from my limited study of his film). He might improve, but this would be my biggest worry for Wentz.
Footwork/pressure evasion 9+. This is probably where Goff is most advanced, and is about as close to a “10” as a prospect can be coming out of college. Re-watch the Arizona State game (particularly the second half) if you want to see the proof. Goff has the instincts (whether trained, inherent, or some combination of the two) to feel the angle and speed of the pressure and escape correctly – against the grain of the pressure – while keeping his eyes down the field.
Leadership/intangibles 9. There are only good things to say about a quarterback who got crushed as a true freshman on a historically bad team but emerged as the key leader in turning the team back into a winner. From the outside looking in, Goff appeared to be extremely well liked and respected by his coaches and teammates.
Touch 9. This is the “artistry” aspect of quarterbacking. Many quarterbacks can throw the fastball, but can they deliver the ball with enough air under it to get above the linebacker level and enough zip to get there before the safeties converge? Can he hit the shallow crossing route in the numbers with a soft but firm pass? Can he deliver the jump ball at the correct height to the corner of the end zone? Goff has shown the ability to be great here.
Arm Strength 7. Goff can make all of the throws that an NFL starter can and should make. But his arm strength is not elite. In my opinion, however, a quarterback only has to reach a minimum level of arm strength in order to have limitless potential. 7 is the arm strength that Brady and Montana have/had (and, of course, many failed quarterbacks – I am not arguing that this is the “perfect” level of arm strength). Wentz is probably an 8. 10s would be John Elway, Brett Favre, Matt Stafford, and Colin Kaepernick. This is probably the subject for a different article, but I am not convinced that having a “10” is even beneficial. Of course, it worked great for Elway and Favre.
But there are at least two problems: (1) extreme arm strength may have an inverse effect on touch. The harder you can throw, the harder it seems to be to throw the needed touch passes. (2) Extreme arm strength may inhibit growth/anticipation as a quarterback, and may hide deficiencies as a prospect. Essentially, if a quarterback always had a rocket arm, he may have relied on it too much to make throws that NFL caliber defenders will interfere with; thus, that quarterback may not have developed the anticipation and decision making that is necessary for NFL stardom.
Release 7. Goff has a nice, fundamentally sound release. Nothing odd to it (i.e. Philip Rivers), and not a long release. Also not an extremely quick, Rodgers/Marino-esque release. Just a nice, solid release.
Proven perseverance? Yes. Goff survived a beating on a bad team behind a porous line as an undersized freshman to lead his team to a bowl game two seasons later. Everyone faces adversity in the NFL. This isn’t a knock against a guy like Wentz, but he is unproven in this category. The NFL knows that Goff remains a positive leader and competitor when times are tough. All indications about Wentz’s character are that he would react the same, but he has not had to prove it.
System translation (aka how easy to compare to a pro system) 7. Cal’s offense is not as “college systemy” as many of the talking heads like to say without watching. As mentioned above, Goff made plenty of full field reads. Was he under center? No, and that does lower his score. But the NFL game is increasingly being run from shotgun. Nobody criticized Tom Brady for beating the Seahawks in the Super Bowl in what was almost as “spread” as any college offense. It is true that Cal’s offense relied on screens and run option passes more than most NFL teams do, but Goff was not a single read or half field read quarterback. Goff had the ability to change protections and plays at the line and shouldered the responsibilities of a pro quarterback. There will be some adjustment to being under center more than he is used to, but there was plenty of film available of Goff “doing NFL things.”
Intelligence 9. Not a perfect wonderlic score level genius, but there will be no concerns about Goff’s intelligence.
Size/sturdiness 4. This would probably be Goff’s weakest trait in the eyes of scouts. He is a naturally skinny guy with a small lower body. Some scouts will question his durability for this reason. This is a similar reason why prospects like Teddy Bridgewater and Aaron Rodgers (as well as many more with lesser careers) dropped in the draft.
Height issue? No. Hard to rate height on a 1-10 scale, but there are no concerns about Goff being too short.
Off field character/question marks? No.
Dynamic running ability 7. Goff is a good athlete, but not particularly elusive or dynamic. He is fast enough to pick up chunks of yards and occasionally make a move, but won’t be confused for Michael Vick. Just like most NFL quarterbacks. This is an area where Wentz has a big edge over Goff – Wentz is a big, aggressive runner who can be a legitimate part of a running game. Depending on the offense that you want to run, this can be a big deal. With Wentz, you may be getting a “Cam Newton light” in the run game. On the other hand, it is very hard to be both a runner and a pocket passer in the NFL. Goff is a pure pocket passer, with pretty good speed if need be.
Speed 7. Goff is faster than many people think. A good, pretty fast athlete. Probably in the middle of the pack for an NFL quarterback.
“Unique” trait? No. A unique trait for a prospect would be, for example, Cam Newton or Tim Tebow’s goal line running, Michael Vick’s electricity, or Johnny Manziel’s creativity.
What do you get when you add it all together? An elite quarterback prospect who is a worthy top draft pick. Of course, nothing is a sure thing. Goff is not one of the best prospects ever, because he is not what I will call a “five tool” prospect, to use a baseball term. He doesn’t have the howitzer arm, physical build, or elite athleticism to be considered a “generational” prospect. But he has every necessary trait to be a successful pocket quarterback, including good athleticism for that role. And being a “five tool” prospect is not essential to becoming an all-time great; look no further than fellow Bay Area products Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
Success is never guaranteed for a quarterback. Goff’s ability to make all of the throws on the field with accuracy and touch as well as his elite footwork and intangibles give him as good a chance as any pocket passing quarterback prospect to make it in the NFL.
May 4, 2016 at 3:12 pm #43407InvaderRamModeratori’d like to say i have no reservations, but i’ll admit i’m not 100% confident. i don’t know. i wonder how the air raid system compares to the one marcus mariota was in at oregon.
This is why I preferred Wentz. I think this is something to be concerned about. Not saying Goff won’t work out but it’s no gimmee’.
i felt the exact same way. i guess we just trust that the snish know what they’re doing.
if they don’t then they’re gone anyway.
May 4, 2016 at 4:05 pm #43412bnwBlockedSo put the kid in the shotgun formation.
It’s precisely what they don’t do, and precisely what Keenum proved a spread qb doesn’t HAVE to do.
It’a play action offense. You don’t have a play action offense unless the qb is under center. He has to make calls at the line based on pre-snap reads to adjust the running game, and he has to drop back from center to execute play action.
As I said, Keenum already demonstrates that a spread qb can transition.
Still can’t see why he can’t do all that from the shotgun. Perhaps changing the offense to accommodate a number 1 overall draft pick this time is a good idea.
The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.
Sprinkles are for winners.
May 4, 2016 at 4:15 pm #43413znModeratorSo put the kid in the shotgun formation.
It’s precisely what they don’t do, and precisely what Keenum proved a spread qb doesn’t HAVE to do.
It’a play action offense. You don’t have a play action offense unless the qb is under center. He has to make calls at the line based on pre-snap reads to adjust the running game, and he has to drop back from center to execute play action.
As I said, Keenum already demonstrates that a spread qb can transition.
Still can’t see why he can’t do all that from the shotgun. Perhaps changing the offense to accommodate a number 1 overall draft pick this time is a good idea.
Because to make changes for the OL you have to be at the line. To sell play action on a 7 step drop you have to take the ball under center, drop back, fake a normal handoff, etc. It all presumes being under center.
Think of it this way. Who is more likely to best get how this situation works. Coaches who have had years of experience actually doing this and who have already transitioned the one successful Air Raid to pro style qb conversion? Or guys on the net just chewin the fat about football?
This is one of those cases, it seems to me, where it’s better to assume there’s something we don’t get about how this works, rather than assume these coaches are so stupid they would never have figured something an internet fan did figure out.
..
May 4, 2016 at 5:17 pm #43419bnwBlockedYou can take your foot out of my ass now.
The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.
Sprinkles are for winners.
May 4, 2016 at 7:03 pm #43427znModerator
May 4, 2016 at 7:26 pm #43430bnwBlockedThanks. Better be low fiber pies or ….well….. you know.
The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.
Sprinkles are for winners.
May 4, 2016 at 8:04 pm #43437MackeyserModeratorI think Goff could transition into Payton’s Gulf Coast WCO.
But into the vestiges of Shotty’s Coryell/WCO hybrid which is now more of a quasi-WCO?
I have doubts.
Why? Well, because since Montana, there’ve been NO examples other than one HoF outlier (Brees coupled with a genius innovator in Payton) of a pocket QB who’s been anything more than mildly successful.
Now, if everyone’s okay with mildly successful for the #1 overall pick, then yeah, he likely can do it.
But if everyone is expecting Goff to be the Franchise QB and to put up numbers like Franchise QBs do and to produce WINS like Franchise QBs do…then no.
There aren’t any other examples of Franchise QBs who are pocket passers who’ve been successful. Mildly successful? Yes, but not Franchise QB successful.
And we didn’t draft Goff at #1 overall to get Kirk Cousins or Matt Hasselbeck or Brad Johnson.
With our broken system, that may eventually get us over .500, but it’s unlikely to get us past AZ or Seattle while they have Wilson and while AZ has Arians…
If this is successful, it’ll be a first and it’ll still be terribly unlikely to be a complete success.
If the goal is to win Lombardi’s this was a really low odds way of going about it.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
May 4, 2016 at 8:30 pm #43439bnwBlockedKurt Warner was a successful pocket passer since Montana.
The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.
Sprinkles are for winners.
May 4, 2016 at 8:39 pm #43440InvaderRamModeratorwell comparing this team to recent superbowl winners, the best comps i can come up with are the baltimore ravens and the seattle seahawks.
great defenses coupled with great backfields.
on one hand you have russell wilson who in addition to being a great passer has the added dimension of being able to create with his feet.
on the other hand you have joe flacco who is more of your traditional pocket passer. adequate mobility but nothing to write home about.
can the rams have a great defense? well some of the pieces are there. they took a little bit of a step back, but if quinn can get healthy again and ogletree can get healthy and be an upgrade over laurinaitis at middle linebacker, then the chances are good if they can add another piece (free safety!) in the next couple years.
how about gurley? i think he has a legitimate chance to be special. i think we have all seen glimpses of it already. so it depends on him staying focused and healthy. and i also think there’s a good chance he’s even stronger and faster than he was last year. so do i think he can be better than lynch or rice? yes. but he’s gotta actually do it. so we’ll see.
goff is probably more like a flacco. more of a pocket passer. can he be as good or better than flacco. well you figure the rams are thinking he will be since they traded up to the number one pick. i think he can. i think his instincts in the pocket look special. but that was in the bear raid system. he was also playing from behind a lot. so who knows?
some other factors have to come into play too. like can the rams find that slot receiver that so many teams covet these days? seattle has one of the best in the business. i keep repeating this, but i remember how effective the offense looked when bradford, jackson, and amendola were all healthy and on the field at the same time. and i’m sure that’s what fisher was thinking when he selected cooper. sounds a lot like a julian edelman type. a qb/rb/wr weapon who excels in the slot. cooper is said to not have the best hands but neither does edelman. but he could totally be that safety blanket that goff will need.
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This reply was modified 8 years, 8 months ago by
InvaderRam.
May 4, 2016 at 8:39 pm #43441znModeratorBut into the vestiges of Shotty’s Coryell/WCO hybrid which is now more of a quasi-WCO?
Well, to put this in “informal poll” terms, my own personal view is that a mobile pocket passer with good pocket presence will thrive in the Rams offense. I basically see traits in Goff that remind me of Montana, Brady, Warner, and Manning. I am not predicting he will be their equal but I do think that’s his general territory, and I think he has a lot of the football virtues of those who belong in that territory. In fact one of the big things in this offense is setting up big plays (sometimes play action but not always play action and sometimes not even passes) and I expect that to continue. To me the only way all this doesn’t happen is if Goff just doesn’t turn out to be what he appears he is.
May 4, 2016 at 9:16 pm #43445MackeyserModeratorKurt Warner was a successful pocket passer since Montana.
Martz didn’t run a WCO. That’s the point. Pocket Passer. In a WCO.
Pocket Passer in a WCO.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
May 4, 2016 at 9:24 pm #43446MackeyserModeratorBut into the vestiges of Shotty’s Coryell/WCO hybrid which is now more of a quasi-WCO?
Well, to put this in “informal poll” terms, my own personal view is that a mobile pocket passer with good pocket presence will thrive in the Rams offense. I basically see traits in Goff that remind me of Montana, Brady, Warner, and Manning. I am not predicting he will be their equal but I do think that’s his general territory, and I think he has a lot of the football virtues of those who belong in that territory. In fact one of the big things in this offense is setting up big plays (sometimes play action but not always play action and sometimes not even passes) and I expect that to continue. To me the only way all this doesn’t happen is if Goff just doesn’t turn out to be what he appears he is.
Goff is “pocket slippery”, but I wouldn’t classify him as mobile like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton or QBs who can create when plays break down.
Peyton Manning was “pocket slippery” as is Brady, but both of them are in EP offenses, not WCOs and certainly those were and are very mature, successful offenses.
This broken craptastic offense isn’t remotely comparable to the Manning EP or the Brady EP even as a WCO. Not even close.
The Seattle WCO is kinda comparable in that it wasn’t successful until it had a Franchise QB, but they did have a defense and a power running game, but it needed a mobile, creator QB, not a pocket QB. There was SUCH a huge, obvious difference that Pete Carroll felt confident in benching the guy he traded for in Hasselbeck and paid big money and started the rookie he drafted in the 3rd round after TWO preseason games…
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
May 4, 2016 at 10:03 pm #43448InvaderRamModeratorby the way, mack, i don’t know about all these different offenses and whether a wco can work or not without a mobile qb. but i did have a preference for the mobile qb. just having that extra dimension that defenses had to account for was appealing. wentz’s experience working under center was appealing to me.
but the choice has been made, and i see a lot of merit to picking goff. now i can’t go into detail like you can about why it will or will not work. i just have a hunch. ya like that? i just got a hunch that it could work. that’s all i got. but what you say is very interesting even though i’ll never understand the nuances of it. it’s something that will be in the back of my mind as we watch how the next three years or so unfold.
or who knows? maybe fisher gets fired. and the rams hire sean payton as the new head coach! ha!
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This reply was modified 8 years, 8 months ago by InvaderRam.
May 4, 2016 at 10:45 pm #43452bnwBlockedor who knows? maybe fisher gets fired. and the rams hire sean payton as the new head coach! ha!
Payton and Williams reunited. Bwahahaha
The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.
Sprinkles are for winners.
May 4, 2016 at 10:56 pm #43453bnwBlockedKurt Warner was a successful pocket passer since Montana.
Martz didn’t run a WCO. That’s the point. Pocket Passer. In a WCO.
Pocket Passer in a WCO.
Pocket passers in a WCO? Why? This Rams team? If the system remains the same as in 2015 the Rams system is listed as Air Coryell not WCO. There are successful pocket passers in Air Coryell. Like Kurt Warner.
The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.
Sprinkles are for winners.
May 5, 2016 at 6:55 pm #43479MackeyserModeratorIt’s not a Coryell.
It’s a quasi-WCO based on the vestiges of the Shotty hybrid Coryell/WCO system.
They moved it more toward a traditional WCO with Cignetti and Boras, but it’s still got parts of Schotty’s offense.
Thus, the quasi-WCO.
It has no coherent philosophy that it’s designed to create mismatches or attack certain zones of the field or stretch the defense horizontally or vertically…
It’s a mish mash. It’s got some plays. Part of the success Gurley had was running out of traditional WCO sets. Essentially stretch plays where he made a cut with a stacked box. Teams hadn’t adjusted and he was…gone.
Once teams adjusted, we didn’t see nearly as much of that. Fisher and Boras will have to adjust the run game or Gurley is going to seeing a LOT of 2 yard runs this season and writers are going to be arguing about a “sophomore slump” when it will be completely an issue of bad scheme.
Fisher had a chance to go Coryell and didn’t.
What I find striking is that Kroenke pays top dollar for coaches and Fisher had let the offensive coaches have basically free reign.
And yet, NONE of the top OCs wanted anything to do with the job…
Jim Bob Cooter after leaving Denver in 2013 was talked about inside league circles as a freaking phenom with the hick name.
Never gave the Rams a sniff…but he was fine going to DETROIT??? Sorry, there’s just no way I’m buying that he wouldn’t have taken an interview. Either he wasn’t interested or the Rams have no idea who the good OCs are…
Either way.
The direct answer is that no, we don’t run a Coryell variant, it’s a quasi-WCO or a “kinda” WCO. They went full WCO and it failed miserably because they didn’t have the personnel to run it. I’m convinced that Fisher thinks they can go with a more pure WCO with Goff.
Which leads me back to my original point…it’s never worked before… and there are reasons for that, schematically. Even Montana had to get out and move. Montana to Clark was on a rollout.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
May 5, 2016 at 8:01 pm #43481bnwBlockedIt’s not a Coryell.
It’s a quasi-WCO based on the vestiges of the Shotty hybrid Coryell/WCO system.
They moved it more toward a traditional WCO with Cignetti and Boras, but it’s still got parts of Schotty’s offense.
The direct answer is that no, we don’t run a Coryell variant, it’s a quasi-WCO or a “kinda” WCO.
Take it up with profootballreference.com which lists the 2015 Rams and Cardinals as Air Coryell and the Seahawks and 49ers as WCO. 2015 Rams passing looked like AC to me, albeit the worst AC I’ve ever seen.
The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.
Sprinkles are for winners.
May 5, 2016 at 9:44 pm #43482MackeyserModeratorI don’t need to take up anything with them, but I get your point.
I know the history of this offense which is why I chronicled it. I know what it is.
Moreover, much of why Wentz actually got any play to the Rams as early as he did was because NDSU runs a run-heavy WCO variant that has VERY similar elements to the quasi-WCO run-heavy offense the Rams run.
The parallels allowed for substantial overlap which is why Wentz, the inferior passer with less experience, was seen as the superior option for the Rams by most of the voices I trust like Cosell, Mayock and several others including being mobile and being able to create after a play breaks down.
/shrug.
Point is that with the focus on the Rams for some time, there wasn’t any question the Rams ran a WCO. I call it a “quasi-WCO” because it still has vestiges of the Schotty Coryell elements. Enough seem to have been purged that it’s definitely MORE of a WCO and recognized by those that dissect it as a WCO, but it has…other elements.
It’s a bit of a Franken-offense. Mostly a WCO, though.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
May 5, 2016 at 9:56 pm #43484
ZooeyModeratorI don’t need to take up anything with them, but I get your point.
I know the history of this offense which is why I chronicled it. I know what it is.
Moreover, much of why Wentz actually got any play to the Rams as early as he did was because NDSU runs a run-heavy WCO variant that has VERY similar elements to the quasi-WCO run-heavy offense the Rams run.
The parallels allowed for substantial overlap which is why Wentz, the inferior passer with less experience, was seen as the superior option for the Rams by most of the voices I trust like Cosell, Mayock and several others including being mobile and being able to create after a play breaks down.
/shrug.
Point is that with the focus on the Rams for some time, there wasn’t any question the Rams ran a WCO. I call it a “quasi-WCO” because it still has vestiges of the Schotty Coryell elements. Enough seem to have been purged that it’s definitely MORE of a WCO and recognized by those that dissect it as a WCO, but it has…other elements.
It’s a bit of a Franken-offense. Mostly a WCO, though.
Well, surely the Rams adapt their offense to Goff, if not this year, then soon.
May 5, 2016 at 10:02 pm #43486MackeyserModeratorYou mean like Fisher’s adapted the offense to all the other QBs when Bradford went down?
Hmmmm.
I have a doubt.
Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.
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