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Well, now that the sun is shining again, I can enjoy the rest of the afternoon. Thanks for pointing that ou
I have been enjoying the outside too. But not as I would prefer.
I got a nice bargain on a cord of seasoned hardwood. Those kinds of deals are rare. I already have a cord but I also have 2 woodstoves, so you know how it is. I needed another cord. Getting a bargain sealed it.
The wood was delivered and…it;s not split. It’s chopped up–meaning it;s not just round logs—but not firewood size. No wonder it was a bargain. 2/3rds of it needs to be split.
Like everyone else I need this:
But I got this instead:
So now it’s this:
But you know there are worse things.
So I guess I am enjoying it.
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Now, as for stats … I dunno. They are affected by so many things. Being behind on the scoreboard. The effectiveness of the running game. Whether the passes are successful or not. Stats on a matter like this are an important part of the puzzle, but, in my view, not definitive unless they’re accompanied by in-depth looks at the variables that make up the overall pattern.
As for me, I feel pretty sure of what I saw.
Here’s why we need stats though. Because I feel just as sure of what I saw. What I saw was that the Rams offense, with Bradford, threw long at a fairly decent clip. I say this with all due respect, of course. But we just see this one entirely differently.
The numbers tell us this wasn’t simply because of being behind, or any of that. It was a regular and featured part of their game. I say the numbers tell us that because the stats I use are comparative. They look at percentages and then compare those with other qbs. Eventually comparisons like that even things out.
That’s the point of comparing percentages with other qbs. Every qb faces the same things—they are behind sometimes, etc. etc. etc–so all of that evens out eventually. And, because of that research, to me, I confirmed what it was I was seeing–that they threw 31+ yarders at a healthy clip. Not like the top 5-6 long ball passers, but just under that. 4.9% of attempts is actually a pretty hefty number. You rarely see more than that and rarely see it get beyond the high end of 5%. (Last year Newton reached 6.7% but that’s unusual. He also wasn’t very accurate with it.)
And in fact, word out of Philadelphia is, they wanted Bradford for his combination of a quick release and long ball accuracy. Kelly apparently thought Foles missed on too many plays like that.
The problem was, who to throw long TO. And they used everyone. Amendola in 2012, for example, has a higher YPR than any year for him before or since. That’s because, lacking options,they set up some long passes to him (one that stands out is the 80 yarder against SF that got called back because of penalty). When Givens was new and they could get away with using him (before teams figured him out), they used Givens. Etc.
In 2014—in terms of setting them up to go downfield using medium and medium deep passes, that was FOR Bradford. They finally had receivers in 2014 who could maximize that. Every camp observer saw them feature it. We saw it in the pre-season games when Bradford did play. Bradford was born for that stuff and what we did see he excelled at it. That was a regular motif in camp reports.
As I said, I always thought they avoided these medium range lasers before 2014 because they didn’t have receivers for it. Not Givens, Quick was too green, not Amendola, Pettis, or Gibson—it took (IMO) Britt and a matured Quick to set these up (though I think Bailey can do it too).
Back to 31+ yarders. There is only one period where they didn’t use the long ball much and it was the 1st 4 games of 2013. But that changed. When they brought in Stacy and went back to a play action offense, the long ball re-appeared. Meanwhile it was there in 2012. It was a core part of their offense…the Fisher/Schott thing was to set up big plays, and that included long passes.
Now it could be that Bradford — in the 1st three quarters — held back, but then to me, that was the offense. Not him specifically, but him in that offense. He could have, in other words, held back when he wasn’t sure of a receiver, and still thrown his fair share of 31+ yarders.
So we just see entirely different things on this one.
Though it’s about Bradford, which is history. That’s the same as discussing/debating Bulger at this point.
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