Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Rams Huddle › qbs in the draft: Goff & Wentz
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April 23, 2016 at 7:53 am #42445AgamemnonParticipant
Dan Patrick Show
2016 NFL draft: David Carr thinks L.A. Rams should take Carson Wentz No. 1David Carr explains why a franchise quarterback is required for an NFL team to make a playoff run and how Carson Wentz has the experience needed to be the first pick in the draft.
April 24, 2016 at 2:06 am #42506AgamemnonParticipanthttp://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/4/21/11473382/jared-goff-nfl-draft-2016-cal-air-raid
Air raid QBs have bombed in the NFL. Can Jared Goff be the 1st to truly succeed?
By Jason Kirk
@JasonKirkSBN on Apr 21, 2016, 8:45a 53
One of college football’s most entertaining offenses has represented itself poorly in the NFL. Is the “Bear Raid” QB the man to
“The air raid” most frequently describes the efficient, up-tempo, pass-heavy spread offense made famous by Mike Leach and further developed in various ways by Leach proteges-turned-head coaches like Cal’s Sonny Dykes, Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin, Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury and West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen, who’s evolved all the way into using a run-first spread.
Air raid teams pretty much always put up tons of points and passing yards, but have few banners to show for them, whether due to exposed defenses, poor running games, weaknesses in the trenches, or happenstance. However, parts of the offense have bled into all sorts of offenses, and vice versa, so even saying “the air raid” in 2016 opens up a host of arguments. Let’s stick to the Leach tree, more or less.
This is relevant to the 2016 NFL Draft because the apparent favorite to go No. 1 to the Rams, Jared Goff, played all three of his years at Cal for Dykes and OC Tony Franklin, both former Leach assistants.
(Here’s the big ole deep-dive, multi-part explainer on how it works, and here are quick notes on how Dykes’ teams do it.)
Three years ago, when WVU’s Geno Smith was a first-round prospect, I looked at the history of air raid QBs in the NFL.It was bad. We can now add the young careers of Smith and Johnny Manziel to the list, which makes things no brighter.
What’s gone wrong?
I dunno.
Maybe air raid QBs have been overrated due to their big stats? It’s typically an underdog offense, for teams that can’t just overpower or out-speed opponents, which means its quarterbacks are rarely considered top prospects in high school or until late in their college careers.
Some would argue its progression-based system makes things a little too easy for college QBs and prevents them from developing pro skills.
Cal definitely fits the stereotypical profile of an air raid team.The Golden Bears ranked in the top eight in pass attempts in all three of Goff’s starting seasons, and the only teams to rank ahead of Cal in all three years were Leach’s Washington State and Texas Tech (where the air raid has become a cultural identity). Goff put up a gaudy 4,719 passing yards in 2015 while slightly disappointing many Cal fans.
They’ve ranked no higher than No. 97 in rushing attempts, despite the Bear Raid being meant to have more of a run/pass balance than Leach’s offenses.
In 2015, Cal’s offense ranked No. 13 in S&P+, while its defense ranked No. 84. Cal went 14-23 in the Goff/Dykes era, improving annually but showing few signs of significantly exceeding 2015’s 8-5 record any time soon.
But how does Goff measure up against his air raid predecessors?It’s hard to account for opponent quality with raw stats, but his 2015 passer rating of 161.2 would’ve ranked No. 5 on this list of 66 seasons by air raid QBs, behind the best years of Keenum, Beck, Smith, and Kolb. You could easily argue he faced better competition in the Pac-12 than others did, but there are other Pac-12 and SEC quarterbacks on that list who aren’t far behind.
NFL folks often say completion percentage and games started are the most telling college QB stats. Goff ranked No. 22, No. 36 and No. 62 in completion percentage in his three years. Smith’s best season ranked No. 2, Manziel’s No. 3, and various other air raid QBs cracked a season’s top 10. Goff has started many games, though.
But the NFL isn’t supposed to draft based on college stats, and scouts are apparently much higher on Goff than they were on any of those previous guys. Here’s Dan Kadar, who’s certainly smarter at this than I am:
Goff was an elite high school recruit [2013’s No. 15 pro-style QB] who has followed up on his promise.
Anyone who has watched Cal and its porous offensive lines has witnessed a tough player in the pocket who knows how to handle pressure. There is no better signal caller in this year’s draft at reading and manipulating a defense and working progressions. Some of the stick throws Goff made, especially in his junior season, were pure NFL throws that connected in tight windows and zipped through coverage.
If you can overlook a slender frame and those nine-inch hands, you have a complete quarterback. The arm strength and athleticism may not be off the charts, but they’re more than good enough.
Joe Montana comparisons are pretty ridiculous — and mostly lazy due to geographical and size similarities — but projecting him as a Matt Ryan-type quarterback is appropriate.
History shows it’s really hard to translate crazy productivity in this offense into NFL success.
If Goff is the exception, well, that’s pretty cool. Maybe there will be more.
April 24, 2016 at 2:11 am #42507AgamemnonParticipanthttp://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000473097/article/mike-mayock-spread-qbs-a-huge-gamble-for-nfl-teams
Mike Mayock: Spread QBs a huge gamble for NFL teamsBy Dan Hanzus
Around the NFL Writer
Published: Feb. 21, 2015 at 05:31 p.m.
Updated: Feb. 22, 2015 at 08:13 a.m.INDIANAPOLIS — Cardinals coach Bruce Arians disparaged the play of passers in college spread offenses this week at the NFL Scouting Combine, telling a room of reporters “that ain’t playing quarterback.”
Mike Mayock seems to agree. The NFL Network draft analyst believes teams are rolling the dice when they invest in quarterbacks who have no experience with some of the most important aspects of the position.
“You can’t kill a kid that hasn’t had to make a play call,” Mayock said from the podium at Lucas Oil Stadium. “He’s doing what his coaches ask him to do. However, it’s a huge transition. I try to give the analogy, you’re talking about taking a kid that’s in kindergarten and moving him to a college-level class almost overnight.”
Mayock proceeded to give a visual illustration of spread quarterback mechanics in an effort to explain the relative simplicity of the system.
“These guys who just catch, rock and throw have never had any footwork and you see it,” he said. “It’s no wonder that guys come out of these systems it sometimes takes a while.”
Baylor’s Bryce Petty is a perfect test case. He led an offensive juggernaut in Waco, Texas, but he remains a complete mystery when it comes to pocket awareness. Mayock praised Petty’s natural ability, saying he’d be the pick if he were playing a game in his backyard. But he added that Petty is a “project and not a one-year project.”
“In the old days, we were saying first-round quarterbacks kind of 50/50,” he said. “I think it’s even tougher now because of the spread.”
We hear again and again that the true way to analyze a draft class is by studying the game tape. In the case of spread quarterbacks, the tape falls short. There might be no bigger draft day gamble.
April 24, 2016 at 2:23 am #42508AgamemnonParticipanthttp://nypost.com/2016/04/23/why-are-desperate-eagles-rams-betting-big-on-these-qbs/
Why are ‘desperate’ Eagles, Rams betting big on these QBs?By Bart Hubbuch
April 23, 2016 | 9:49pm
The top of this year’s NFL draft has scouts and executives around the league scratching their heads more vigorously than they have in years.
Not one but two teams — the Rams and Eagles — have gone to the drastic extent of mortgaging their respective futures to move up for … Jared Goff and Carson Wentz?
That would be Jared Goff, owner of a 14-23 record at California, and Carson Wentz, who needed three seasons to become a starter at FCS (formerly I-AA) North Dakota State and threw just 612 passes in college.
And for that, Los Angeles and Philadelphia together surrendered two future No. 1 picks, three second-round choices, three third-round picks and a fourth rounder.
Huh?
“It just shows you how desperate teams are for a quarterback, because this isn’t an elite group by any stretch of the imagination,” an NFC general manager told The Post last week. “You’re giving away the store, but none of these guys is [Jameis] Winston or [Marcus] Mariota. It could work out for [the Rams and Eagles], but right now, it’s just a huge, huge gamble.”
Not only is this considered a very thin quarterback crop, but all of the prospects with first- or second-round grades — and there aren’t very many of those — have major question marks going into the three-day draft beginning Thursday in Chicago.
Memphis’ Paxton Lynch is a towering 6-foot-7 but just 245 pounds, Connor Cook of Michigan State is thought to be an attitude problem and Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg is coming off two seasons so awful that several teams consider him no better than a long-term project.
Issues down the list normally wouldn’t be surprising or potentially problematic — a lack of draftable quarterbacks is far from a new phenomenon — if this were a year like 2015, when a pair of former Heisman Trophy winners with championship experience in Winston and Mariota were sitting at the top and considered worthy of a Day 1 starting job.
But thanks to the blockbuster moves by the Rams and Eagles, quarterbacks will go 1-2 for the second year in a row and third time since 2012 (the Andrew Luck-Robert Griffin III draft) even though Goff and Wentz were relative unknowns until the hype stage of this year’s event.
Jets GM Mike Maccagnan described this year’s quarterback class as “average” last week, and that seemed to be generous.
Seemingly the only people publicly fawning over Goff and Wentz are draft analysts, with the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock seemingly going out on the biggest limb with his over-the-top praise of both.
Mayock even said Goff and Wentz are better pro prospects than Winston or Mariota, a statement that appears ludicrous on its face.
“I still believe Wentz and Goff are on par or better than last year’s Mariota and Winston, and obviously two teams believe it as well, if they were able to give up what it took to trade up to get those guys,” Mayock said in a conference call with national media last week.
Wentz certainly looks like a quarterback right out of central casting at 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, with a big arm and strong pocket presence. But it is tough for some to get over the fact he started just 23 games in college, missed much of last year with a broken wrist and rarely faced major-conference opposition.
Goff, meanwhile, has plenty of experience (37 starts) in a wide-open offense that would lend itself to a smooth transition to the NFL, but he packs just 215 pounds on his 6-foot-4 frame and finished almost 10 games below .500 as a starter.
Yet Rams coach Jeff Fisher and Eagles GM Howie Roseman apparently like both of them enough to go all-in.
Go figure.
“It’s a weird group of quarterbacks,” a scout told The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “None of them are just ready-made and none of them show consistency. They’re good, solid starters. None of them are Pro Bowl-caliber type quarterbacks. I would take Winston and Mariota over these guys. No question.”
April 24, 2016 at 8:54 am #42514AgamemnonParticipantApril 24, 2016 at 9:27 am #42515AgamemnonParticipantAccording to sources.. #Rams really like Carson Wentz. Anything might happen but he's the leader in the clubhouse now.
— Fred Roggin (@FredNBCLA) April 21, 2016
Roggins seems to be the only guy left picking Wentz. But, then, everyone thought that SF was going to pick Rogers until the last minute when they switched to Alex Smith.
April 24, 2016 at 9:48 am #42518canadaramParticipant…everyone thought that SF was going to pick Rogers until the last minute when they switched to Alex Smith
Thats my all-time favourite first round pick by Niners.
April 24, 2016 at 9:56 am #42519AgamemnonParticipantIt is my belief that nobody really knows what players will succeed best in the NFL, especially QBs. I think history backs that up. You can project them and sort them and talk about the different aspects and attributes, but at best it seems to be no more than a coin flip even among the best candidates. So, you might as well go with the one you like best. I like Wentz. I don’t like Goff. The Rams should pick the guy they like best, whoever that is. imo
April 24, 2016 at 10:40 am #42524znModeratorMayock: Goff-Wentz every bit as good as Winston-Mariota
Chase Goodbread
Comparing prospects across different drafts can be tricky business, but the trades of the Rams and Eagles trades into the top two spots of the 2016 NFL Draft bring one such comparison into better focus.
NFL Media draft expert Mike Mayock is sold on top quarterback prospects Jared Goff and Carson Wentz being on equal footing with last year’s first and second overall picks: Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. And by all accounts, the aforementioned moves will result in Goff and Wentz being selected in the very same slots as their draft predecessors.
“I took a lot of abuse a month or two ago for saying Wentz and Goff were every bit in the conversation with last year’s (top quarterbacks) Mariota and Winston,” Mayock said during a Friday media teleconference. “I still believe it, and apparently two other NFL teams believe it, who were willing to give up that kind of firepower to move up and get those guys.”
Winston and Mariota were certainly far more decorated as college players, both winning the Heisman Trophy and one, Winston, winning a national championship. College accolades don’t make an NFL career, though. For Goff and Wentz, their physical tools will take them only so far at the pro level, and their surrounding talent and fit with their future coaching staffs will complete the picture.
For Winston and Mariota, the picture is still being painted.
They showed great promise as rookies, although both teams finished below .500 and in last place in their respective divisions, which isn’t surprising given that the Buccaneers and Titans acquired them as the two worst teams in the NFL. That won’t be the case for Goff and Wentz, who are expected to land in destinations (Philadelphia and Los Angeles) where they’ll have more talent around them with teams that were initially assigned the Nos. 13 and 15 overall choices
April 24, 2016 at 11:20 am #42528AgamemnonParticipanthttp://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-wentz-1.html
Jared Goff
Case Keenum
I had this saved up. I thought I might as well post it, if anyone is interested?
April 24, 2016 at 11:35 am #42529znModeratorThis NFL draft wasn’t going to be all about the quarterbacks. But now it is.
Mark Maske
This NFL draft was not necessarily supposed to be all about the quarterbacks. It is one year after the eagerly anticipated pro-football arrivals of Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota led to them being selected first and second overall in the 2015 draft, and this is a quarterback class without anything resembling that kind of star wattage.
But in today’s pass-happy NFL, it is always about the quarterbacks. Any franchise that doesn’t have a highly productive passer is in a constant, ever-more-desperate search to get one. Even with no former Heisman Trophy winners or celebrated quarterbacks adored by the football-watching public in the mix, and even with the Denver Broncos having just demonstrated to the rest of the league that a defense-first approach still can win a Super Bowl, it will be all about the quarterbacks Thursday night when the draft gets under way with its opening round.
Quarterbacks Jared Goff of Cal and Carson Wentz of North Dakota State widely are expected to be chosen with the top two picks after the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles made blockbuster deals to trade up to obtain those selections.
[The Rams made a reverse-RG3 trade and now must hope that Jared Goff or Carson Wentz is really, really good]
What remains up for debate is whether Goff and Wentz have sufficient promise as would-be NFL franchise quarterbacks to justify that lofty draft status and the maneuvers made by teams to be in position to get them, or if it all merely reflects how dire the circumstances are for the sport’s quarterback-deprived franchises.
“I took a lot of abuse a month or two ago for saying that I thought Wentz and Goff were every bit in the conversation with last year’s Mariota and Winston,” said Mike Mayock, a draft analyst for NFL Network. “And I still believe it. And apparently two other NFL teams do if they’re willing to give up that kind of firepower to move up and get those guys.”
Not everyone necessarily agrees.
“There’s no question this was driven by the needs at quarterback,” a front-office executive with one NFL team said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he did not want to comment publicly on players headed to other franchises. “These players [Goff and Wentz] are not quite on par with the two quarterbacks at the top last year.”
The prospect of being certain to get either Wentz or Goff was not enough to convince the Cleveland Browns, who have had 24 starters at quarterback since 1999, to keep the No. 2 pick. They traded it Wednesday to the Eagles for a handsome package of draft choices, a week after the Tennessee Titans agreed to send the top selection to the Rams. So the Browns will have to hope their quarterback of the future emerges from among the recently signed Robert Griffin III or a rookie chosen either with the No. 8 pick or later.
“Everybody keeps talking about two of the best quarterbacks in the draft,” Browns Coach Hue Jackson said at a news conference last week. “No one knows that, right? No one really knows that. We will see how it all unfolds here in two or three years and see if we were right or wrong.”
If the Titans, who selected Mariota second overall last year, had retained the top pick, they would have chosen from among a group of prospects that includes Mississippi tackle Laremy Tunsil, Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey and Ohio State pass rusher Joey Bosa. Tunsil probably would have been the selection. So it was not until recent weeks, with the trades, that this became viewed as a draft in which quarterbacks would be selected first and second.
Goff, who once played as a freshman on a Cal team that went 1-11, and Wentz, who played at a Football Championship Subdivision (formerly known as Division I-AA) school and missed much of last season because of a broken wrist, have comparatively low public profiles. Even Mayock said he was unfamiliar with Wentz before doing his pre-draft homework beginning in October and November.
“I’d never even heard of him,” Mayock said. “He was just a name on my quarterback list. The first guy I looked at was Goff. When I got done four games of Goff, I said, ‘I think this is gonna be my first guy. This is gonna be my top quarterback.’ I liked everything about Jared Goff. I thought he was a top-10 pick in just about any draft.
“About a week later, I put in the first tape of Carson Wentz. And it was against Northern Iowa, and I remember it like it was yesterday. I was like, ‘Holy crap, that is a great tape. I hope the next one’s as good.’ The next one was as good, as was the next one. So right away I knew we had a first-round quarterback on our hands, and you needed to figure the kid out. The Senior Bowl — best quarterback back there. [Scouting] combine — outstanding. The pro day really sold me on the kid because of the way he was with his coaches and teammates, the respect he earned, the intelligence of the kid, the intangibles that help make it. So he’s always been my number one quarterback since back in the fall. He’s crossed off every check mark since.”
The NFL is a copycat league, and the Broncos just made a run to a Super Bowl triumph powered by a dominating defense that more than compensated for less-than-overwhelming passing production by quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler.
[Peyton Manning had among the worst seasons ever for a Super Bowl starting QB]
But that has not influenced other teams to abandon their whatever-it-takes pursuits of prized quarterbacks. It’s how the game is now played: NFL quarterbacks set single-season records last season for highest league-wide completion percentage and passer rating, most touchdown passes and lowest interception percentage.
The Rams sent a king’s ransom of draft picks to the Titans for the No. 1 choice. There is a growing belief within the sport that the Rams are targeting Goff and the Eagles want Wentz. From there, other quarterback-seeking teams such as the San Francisco 49ers, Browns, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills and Broncos will jockey for position for other prospects such as Paxton Lynch of Memphis, Connor Cook of Michigan State and Christian Hackenberg of Penn State.
“I have five quarterbacks in this draft going in the top 35 picks,” former NFL coach Jon Gruden said. “I think the strength of this draft is at the quarterback position. I just don’t see a lot of drop-back quarterbacks at the college level on the horizon. And there’s so many teams that need them desperately.”
What other choice, some wonder, do teams like the Rams and Eagles have but to do what they’ve done?
“All I know is if you don’t have one of these guys, if you don’t have a quarterback, here’s the pool of quarterbacks in this year’s draft,” said Gruden, now an analyst for ESPN. “And if you have a real good scouting department, you can see who the candidates are gonna be in next year’s draft. And I think when people are looking at this year’s group of quarterbacks, there are several that have the ability to play in this league. And if you don’t get one this year, I hope you have a magic wand to get one next year or the following year’s draft because nothing that happened five years ago is gonna help you right now.”
April 24, 2016 at 11:40 am #42530znModeratorfrom off the net, no source/link for the quotation given in the original
=
max
Waldman is an obsessive genius. I realize his focus is on fantasy football but the amount of detail and analysis he shows is most impressive. Waldman is a modern day Joel Buchsbaum. He lives and breathes player analysis.
Waldman
A related criticism is Goff’s jittery feet. If examined with
some level of nuance, linking a quarterback’s flaws to
jittery footwork can lead to overanalysis. I believe this is
often the case with Goff’s more ardent critics.If overall footwork is a language, the pace or stillness of
the footwork is a lot like the energy or smoothness of the
communication. There are extremes of energy or
smoothness that can hurt overall expression, but this is
not the case with Goff.The jitters in Goff’s footwork are a by-product of the
nervous energy that comes from thinking fast. Peyton
Manning had the same issue and it’s often about the
body trying to keep up with a fast-processing mind. In a
simplistic way, a quarterback’s jittery feet are a form of
mild stuttering (the IQ of an average stutterer is 14 points
higher than the national average) where their minds are
processing faster than their bodies can keep up.Goff’s feet may stammer a word here and there, or make
small adjustments mid-statement, but the quality of his
communication is excellent. Goff executes one-, three-,
and five-step drops and he’s especially good at cutting
short the length of his dropbacks or even accelerating his
pace to adjust to any pressure that interferes with the
offense’s original plan. He’s also excellent at adjusting his
feet when his first route doesn’t come open so he’s in
position to make a sound throw to the next target in his
progression. This sounds basic, but as you’ll read in
subsquent profiles, many good prospects struggle with
footwork.April 24, 2016 at 11:57 am #42532AgamemnonParticipantfrom off the net, no source/link for the quotation given in the original
That is probably paid content that Max downloaded. imo
April 24, 2016 at 12:55 pm #42534InvaderRamModeratori think goff might be suffering a little bit of overanalysis. kinda like what manning and luck got.
both good and bad. that waldman excerpt is a little bit of nonsense. he’s talking out his ass. i just think that’s how he was coached. his coach had even alluded to it.
not that i hate waldman. i love listening to him.
- This reply was modified 8 years, 8 months ago by InvaderRam.
April 25, 2016 at 11:48 am #42592AgamemnonParticipantApril 25, 2016 at 12:08 pm #42596NERamParticipanthttp://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/4/21/11473382/jared-goff-nfl-draft-2016-cal-air-raid
Air raid QBs have bombed in the NFL. Can Jared Goff be the 1st to truly succeed?
By Jason Kirk
@JasonKirkSBN on Apr 21, 2016, 8:45a 53
One of college football’s most entertaining offenses has represented itself poorly in the NFL. Is the “Bear Raid” QB the man to
“The air raid” most frequently describes the efficient, up-tempo, pass-heavy spread offense made famous by Mike Leach and further developed in various ways by Leach proteges-turned-head coaches like Cal’s Sonny Dykes, Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin, Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury and West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen, who’s evolved all the way into using a run-first spread.
Air raid teams pretty much always put up tons of points and passing yards, but have few banners to show for them, whether due to exposed defenses, poor running games, weaknesses in the trenches, or happenstance. However, parts of the offense have bled into all sorts of offenses, and vice versa, so even saying “the air raid” in 2016 opens up a host of arguments. Let’s stick to the Leach tree, more or less.
This is relevant to the 2016 NFL Draft because the apparent favorite to go No. 1 to the Rams, Jared Goff, played all three of his years at Cal for Dykes and OC Tony Franklin, both former Leach assistants.
(Here’s the big ole deep-dive, multi-part explainer on how it works, and here are quick notes on how Dykes’ teams do it.)
Three years ago, when WVU’s Geno Smith was a first-round prospect, I looked at the history of air raid QBs in the NFL.It was bad. We can now add the young careers of Smith and Johnny Manziel to the list, which makes things no brighter.
What’s gone wrong?
I dunno.
Maybe air raid QBs have been overrated due to their big stats? It’s typically an underdog offense, for teams that can’t just overpower or out-speed opponents, which means its quarterbacks are rarely considered top prospects in high school or until late in their college careers.
Some would argue its progression-based system makes things a little too easy for college QBs and prevents them from developing pro skills.
Cal definitely fits the stereotypical profile of an air raid team.The Golden Bears ranked in the top eight in pass attempts in all three of Goff’s starting seasons, and the only teams to rank ahead of Cal in all three years were Leach’s Washington State and Texas Tech (where the air raid has become a cultural identity). Goff put up a gaudy 4,719 passing yards in 2015 while slightly disappointing many Cal fans.
They’ve ranked no higher than No. 97 in rushing attempts, despite the Bear Raid being meant to have more of a run/pass balance than Leach’s offenses.
In 2015, Cal’s offense ranked No. 13 in S&P+, while its defense ranked No. 84. Cal went 14-23 in the Goff/Dykes era, improving annually but showing few signs of significantly exceeding 2015’s 8-5 record any time soon.
But how does Goff measure up against his air raid predecessors?It’s hard to account for opponent quality with raw stats, but his 2015 passer rating of 161.2 would’ve ranked No. 5 on this list of 66 seasons by air raid QBs, behind the best years of Keenum, Beck, Smith, and Kolb. You could easily argue he faced better competition in the Pac-12 than others did, but there are other Pac-12 and SEC quarterbacks on that list who aren’t far behind.
NFL folks often say completion percentage and games started are the most telling college QB stats. Goff ranked No. 22, No. 36 and No. 62 in completion percentage in his three years. Smith’s best season ranked No. 2, Manziel’s No. 3, and various other air raid QBs cracked a season’s top 10. Goff has started many games, though.
But the NFL isn’t supposed to draft based on college stats, and scouts are apparently much higher on Goff than they were on any of those previous guys. Here’s Dan Kadar, who’s certainly smarter at this than I am:
Goff was an elite high school recruit [2013’s No. 15 pro-style QB] who has followed up on his promise.
Anyone who has watched Cal and its porous offensive lines has witnessed a tough player in the pocket who knows how to handle pressure. There is no better signal caller in this year’s draft at reading and manipulating a defense and working progressions. Some of the stick throws Goff made, especially in his junior season, were pure NFL throws that connected in tight windows and zipped through coverage.
If you can overlook a slender frame and those nine-inch hands, you have a complete quarterback. The arm strength and athleticism may not be off the charts, but they’re more than good enough.
Joe Montana comparisons are pretty ridiculous — and mostly lazy due to geographical and size similarities — but projecting him as a Matt Ryan-type quarterback is appropriate.
History shows it’s really hard to translate crazy productivity in this offense into NFL success.
If Goff is the exception, well, that’s pretty cool. Maybe there will be more.
That’s a pretty impressive (or perhaps unimpressive graph)…
April 26, 2016 at 1:09 am #42637AgamemnonParticipantApril 27, 2016 at 3:46 pm #42703znModeratorPocket presence, performance under pressure make Jared Goff fit for Rams
Nick Wagoner
BRISTOL, Conn. — On Tuesday night, our ESPN NFL Nation reporters participated in the now annual mock draft live on ESPN.
Despite my secret desire to create chaos at the top, I’m sure my selection of Cal quarterback Jared Goff with the first overall pick for the Los Angeles Rams surprised nobody who has been awake or living anywhere above the rocks for the past few weeks. For the record, as I’ve written, I would take North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz in the Rams’ position, but I believe they are going to take Goff, hence the pick.
To be sure, the Rams really like both Goff and Wentz. Coach Jeff Fisher told ESPN’s Shelley Smith that he believes Wentz will “play in a Super Bowl” before his career is over on the day the Rams moved from No. 15 to No. 1 in this year’s draft. Wentz’s size, athletic ability and intelligence are hard to ignore. Crazier things than the Rams taking Wentz have happened in the draft.
But ultimately, the Rams look poised to make Goff the second quarterback they have taken with the first pick in the past seven years. In some ways, taking Goff would be a departure from the Rams’ recent draft preference of opting for the higher ceiling instead of a higher floor.
“I think that when you go pick someone No. 1, ceiling is important, but when you pick someone No. 1, floor is important, too,” general manager Les Snead said on the day the trade was made. “There shouldn’t be a low floor. But yes, ceiling, when you pick No. 1, I think philosophically, you are not necessarily picking for what coach Fisher pencils in for opening day. It’s really what he pencils in for the next decade or so.”
As Fisher and Snead enter their fifth season in charge, there is no doubt the time is now for them to take the next step beyond the mediocrity of their first four seasons and finish with a winning record and playoff berth. From talking to various scouts around the league and draft analysts, Goff appears to be the more pro-ready of the top two quarterbacks. That’s not to say Goff or Wentz isn’t ready to be a significant difference-maker in Year 1, but there’s little doubt that whoever the Rams pick first will play at some point this season, if not in Week 1.
Though Goff didn’t spend any time playing under center at Cal and comes from a spread system, many believe he can play sooner than later based on a few specific skills.
Here’s a look at three areas where Goff looks to have an advantage over Wentz:
His feet: One NFC scout told me that Goff’s feet and pocket presence are advanced well beyond his years. He doesn’t run quite like Wentz, but his feel for pressure allows him to climb the pocket and move laterally to create throwing lanes. And his QBR of 81.6 outside the pocket ranked seventh among qualifying quarterbacks in a Power 5 conference. That ability also helped Goff complete 60 percent of his passes on third or fourth-and-10 or longer with 40 percent of those going for first downs.
His performance under pressure: The Rams’ offensive line is still young and a work-in-progress, so having a quarterback who can keep his eyes down the field and deliver the ball when pressure closes in remains paramount. Goff was as good as any major college quarterback in this area in 2015. Goff was sacked, under duress or hit 24 percent of the time last season. On those plays where the result wasn’t a sack, he completed 45.9 percent of his passes for 7.17 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Goff was even better when opponents brought the blitz but didn’t necessarily create pressure. When defenses sent an extra man after him, Goff threw 20 touchdowns on 131 attempts, a rate of 15.3 percent.
His sample size: Though Wentz brings an impressive resume full of wins, he did it in only a season and a half as the starter. Goff, meanwhile, was a three-year starter who led an abysmal Cal team from one win in his first season as a starter to eight wins in 2015. Yes, Wentz played in a pro-style offense and Goff will have to make that adjustment, but Goff has also played more than twice as many snaps. Those are things that would seem to make Goff more ready to play right away, even if he’s got some work to do.
Of course, arguments against Goff and for Wentz could be made as well. But among the factors that could ultimately tip the scales one direction or the other, the signs still point to the Rams calling Goff’s name first on Thursday night.
April 27, 2016 at 7:46 pm #42716InvaderRamModeratorthe one thing about goff’s stats. how much of it was padded because cal was in a hopeless situation? wentz’s stats always counted for something because the team was usually winning.
on the other hand, if you watch wentz in the national championship game, that defense was awesome. they almost always put carson in good situations where there wasn’t much pressure on him to drive the length of the field.
tough choice.
one other thing about goff. spread qbs are often criticized because they lag far behind in footwork and pocket presence. but for goff. because of a poor supporting cast. he was forced to develop these skills and they’re actually cited as a strength.
how many college highlights did we see of bradford just standing there. tons of time to throw and no pass rush around him? and in the pros he suffered cuz he couldn’t sense the pass rush around him. i don’t think goff will have that problem and in some ways he’s actually ahead of wentz. goff still has to get used to playing under center and more importantly learn play action where he’ll have his back to the defense. but in terms of pocket presence and always being in a good position to throw i think he’ll be ahead of wentz. plus i think he had more presnap responsibilities than most spread qbs if we are to believe what we read.
- This reply was modified 8 years, 8 months ago by InvaderRam.
April 27, 2016 at 8:13 pm #42722znModeratoron the other hand,
This is that kind of discussion.
It’s a “on the other hand” kind of discussion.
April 27, 2016 at 10:29 pm #42735ZooeyModeratorI don’t care anymore.
Originally, I was for Wentz. Then I moved towards Goff.
But then I moved towards “why be emotionally invested in this pick when I don’t know the first thing about it, and basically nobody knows how this will turn out anyway?”
Go #1 pick!
April 28, 2016 at 12:33 am #42745InvaderRamModeratorI don’t care anymore.
Originally, I was for Wentz. Then I moved towards Goff.
But then I moved towards “why be emotionally invested in this pick when I don’t know the first thing about it, and basically nobody knows how this will turn out anyway?”
Go #1 pick!
yeah the suspense is annoying me.
let’s get the pick in already.
April 28, 2016 at 5:51 am #42748AgamemnonParticipantApril 28, 2016 at 6:03 am #42749AgamemnonParticipanthttp://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:15206126
At 1:24, the famous or not so famous, “Carson will win….., Carson will be in a Super Bowl.
I have my own opinions on the whole trade-up, Wentz/Goff deal. If they want to do Goff, ok. Cause, I think they could win with Keenum and Goff should be better than him and I still have Mannion. 😉
April 28, 2016 at 6:48 am #42750AgamemnonParticipant -
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