qbs in the draft: Goff & Wentz

from off the net, no source/link for the quotation given in the original

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Waldman is an obsessive genius. I realize his focus is on fantasy football but the amount of detail and analysis he shows is most impressive. Waldman is a modern day Joel Buchsbaum. He lives and breathes player analysis.

Waldman

A related criticism is Goff’s jittery feet. If examined with
some level of nuance, linking a quarterback’s flaws to
jittery footwork can lead to overanalysis. I believe this is
often the case with Goff’s more ardent critics.

If overall footwork is a language, the pace or stillness of
the footwork is a lot like the energy or smoothness of the
communication. There are extremes of energy or
smoothness that can hurt overall expression, but this is
not the case with Goff.

The jitters in Goff’s footwork are a by-product of the
nervous energy that comes from thinking fast. Peyton
Manning had the same issue and it’s often about the
body trying to keep up with a fast-processing mind. In a
simplistic way, a quarterback’s jittery feet are a form of
mild stuttering (the IQ of an average stutterer is 14 points
higher than the national average) where their minds are
processing faster than their bodies can keep up.

Goff’s feet may stammer a word here and there, or make
small adjustments mid-statement, but the quality of his
communication is excellent. Goff executes one-, three-,
and five-step drops and he’s especially good at cutting
short the length of his dropbacks or even accelerating his
pace to adjust to any pressure that interferes with the
offense’s original plan. He’s also excellent at adjusting his
feet when his first route doesn’t come open so he’s in
position to make a sound throw to the next target in his
progression. This sounds basic, but as you’ll read in
subsquent profiles, many good prospects struggle with
footwork.

i think goff might be suffering a little bit of overanalysis. kinda like what manning and luck got.

both good and bad. that waldman excerpt is a little bit of nonsense. he’s talking out his ass. i just think that’s how he was coached. his coach had even alluded to it.

not that i hate waldman. i love listening to him.

• This reply was modified 8 years, 6 months ago by InvaderRam.

Agamemnon wrote:

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/4/21/11473382/jared-goff-nfl-draft-2016-cal-air-raid

Air raid QBs have bombed in the NFL. Can Jared Goff be the 1st to truly succeed?

By Jason Kirk

@JasonKirkSBN on Apr 21, 2016, 8:45a 53

One of college football’s most entertaining offenses has represented itself poorly in the NFL. Is the “Bear Raid” QB the man to

“The air raid” most frequently describes the efficient, up-tempo, pass-heavy spread offense made famous by Mike Leach and further developed in various ways by Leach proteges-turned-head coaches like Cal’s Sonny Dykes, Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin, Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury and West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen, who’s evolved all the way into using a run-first spread.

Air raid teams pretty much always put up tons of points and passing yards, but have few banners to show for them, whether due to exposed defenses, poor running games, weaknesses in the trenches, or happenstance. However, parts of the offense have bled into all sorts of offenses, and vice versa, so even saying “the air raid” in 2016 opens up a host of arguments. Let’s stick to the Leach tree, more or less.

This is relevant to the 2016 NFL Draft because the apparent favorite to go No. 1 to the Rams, Jared Goff, played all three of his years at Cal for Dykes and OC Tony Franklin, both former Leach assistants.

(Here’s the big ole deep-dive, multi-part explainer on how it works, and here are quick notes on how Dykes’ teams do it.)
Three years ago, when WVU’s Geno Smith was a first-round prospect, I looked at the history of air raid QBs in the NFL.

It was bad. We can now add the young careers of Smith and Johnny Manziel to the list, which makes things no brighter.

What’s gone wrong?

I dunno.

Maybe air raid QBs have been overrated due to their big stats? It’s typically an underdog offense, for teams that can’t just overpower or out-speed opponents, which means its quarterbacks are rarely considered top prospects in high school or until late in their college careers.

Some would argue its progression-based system makes things a little too easy for college QBs and prevents them from developing pro skills.
Cal definitely fits the stereotypical profile of an air raid team.

The Golden Bears ranked in the top eight in pass attempts in all three of Goff’s starting seasons, and the only teams to rank ahead of Cal in all three years were Leach’s Washington State and Texas Tech (where the air raid has become a cultural identity). Goff put up a gaudy 4,719 passing yards in 2015 while slightly disappointing many Cal fans.

They’ve ranked no higher than No. 97 in rushing attempts, despite the Bear Raid being meant to have more of a run/pass balance than Leach’s offenses.

In 2015, Cal’s offense ranked No. 13 in S&P+, while its defense ranked No. 84. Cal went 14-23 in the Goff/Dykes era, improving annually but showing few signs of significantly exceeding 2015’s 8-5 record any time soon.
But how does Goff measure up against his air raid predecessors?

It’s hard to account for opponent quality with raw stats, but his 2015 passer rating of 161.2 would’ve ranked No. 5 on this list of 66 seasons by air raid QBs, behind the best years of Keenum, Beck, Smith, and Kolb. You could easily argue he faced better competition in the Pac-12 than others did, but there are other Pac-12 and SEC quarterbacks on that list who aren’t far behind.

NFL folks often say completion percentage and games started are the most telling college QB stats. Goff ranked No. 22, No. 36 and No. 62 in completion percentage in his three years. Smith’s best season ranked No. 2, Manziel’s No. 3, and various other air raid QBs cracked a season’s top 10. Goff has started many games, though.

But the NFL isn’t supposed to draft based on college stats, and scouts are apparently much higher on Goff than they were on any of those previous guys. Here’s Dan Kadar, who’s certainly smarter at this than I am:

Goff was an elite high school recruit [2013’s No. 15 pro-style QB] who has followed up on his promise.

Anyone who has watched Cal and its porous offensive lines has witnessed a tough player in the pocket who knows how to handle pressure. There is no better signal caller in this year’s draft at reading and manipulating a defense and working progressions. Some of the stick throws Goff made, especially in his junior season, were pure NFL throws that connected in tight windows and zipped through coverage.

If you can overlook a slender frame and those nine-inch hands, you have a complete quarterback. The arm strength and athleticism may not be off the charts, but they’re more than good enough.

Joe Montana comparisons are pretty ridiculous — and mostly lazy due to geographical and size similarities — but projecting him as a Matt Ryan-type quarterback is appropriate.

History shows it’s really hard to translate crazy productivity in this offense into NFL success.

If Goff is the exception, well, that’s pretty cool. Maybe there will be more.

That’s a pretty impressive (or perhaps unimpressive graph)…

Pocket presence, performance under pressure make Jared Goff fit for Rams

Nick Wagoner

http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/28783/pocket-presence-performance-under-pressure-make-jared-goff-a-fit-for-rams

BRISTOL, Conn. — On Tuesday night, our ESPN NFL Nation reporters participated in the now annual mock draft live on ESPN.

Despite my secret desire to create chaos at the top, I’m sure my selection of Cal quarterback Jared Goff with the first overall pick for the Los Angeles Rams surprised nobody who has been awake or living anywhere above the rocks for the past few weeks. For the record, as I’ve written, I would take North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz in the Rams’ position, but I believe they are going to take Goff, hence the pick.

To be sure, the Rams really like both Goff and Wentz. Coach Jeff Fisher told ESPN’s Shelley Smith that he believes Wentz will “play in a Super Bowl” before his career is over on the day the Rams moved from No. 15 to No. 1 in this year’s draft. Wentz’s size, athletic ability and intelligence are hard to ignore. Crazier things than the Rams taking Wentz have happened in the draft.

But ultimately, the Rams look poised to make Goff the second quarterback they have taken with the first pick in the past seven years. In some ways, taking Goff would be a departure from the Rams’ recent draft preference of opting for the higher ceiling instead of a higher floor.

“I think that when you go pick someone No. 1, ceiling is important, but when you pick someone No. 1, floor is important, too,” general manager Les Snead said on the day the trade was made. “There shouldn’t be a low floor. But yes, ceiling, when you pick No. 1, I think philosophically, you are not necessarily picking for what coach Fisher pencils in for opening day. It’s really what he pencils in for the next decade or so.”

As Fisher and Snead enter their fifth season in charge, there is no doubt the time is now for them to take the next step beyond the mediocrity of their first four seasons and finish with a winning record and playoff berth. From talking to various scouts around the league and draft analysts, Goff appears to be the more pro-ready of the top two quarterbacks. That’s not to say Goff or Wentz isn’t ready to be a significant difference-maker in Year 1, but there’s little doubt that whoever the Rams pick first will play at some point this season, if not in Week 1.

Though Goff didn’t spend any time playing under center at Cal and comes from a spread system, many believe he can play sooner than later based on a few specific skills.

Here’s a look at three areas where Goff looks to have an advantage over Wentz:

His feet: One NFC scout told me that Goff’s feet and pocket presence are advanced well beyond his years. He doesn’t run quite like Wentz, but his feel for pressure allows him to climb the pocket and move laterally to create throwing lanes. And his QBR of 81.6 outside the pocket ranked seventh among qualifying quarterbacks in a Power 5 conference. That ability also helped Goff complete 60 percent of his passes on third or fourth-and-10 or longer with 40 percent of those going for first downs.

His performance under pressure: The Rams’ offensive line is still young and a work-in-progress, so having a quarterback who can keep his eyes down the field and deliver the ball when pressure closes in remains paramount. Goff was as good as any major college quarterback in this area in 2015. Goff was sacked, under duress or hit 24 percent of the time last season. On those plays where the result wasn’t a sack, he completed 45.9 percent of his passes for 7.17 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Goff was even better when opponents brought the blitz but didn’t necessarily create pressure. When defenses sent an extra man after him, Goff threw 20 touchdowns on 131 attempts, a rate of 15.3 percent.

His sample size: Though Wentz brings an impressive resume full of wins, he did it in only a season and a half as the starter. Goff, meanwhile, was a three-year starter who led an abysmal Cal team from one win in his first season as a starter to eight wins in 2015. Yes, Wentz played in a pro-style offense and Goff will have to make that adjustment, but Goff has also played more than twice as many snaps. Those are things that would seem to make Goff more ready to play right away, even if he’s got some work to do.

Of course, arguments against Goff and for Wentz could be made as well. But among the factors that could ultimately tip the scales one direction or the other, the signs still point to the Rams calling Goff’s name first on Thursday night.

InvaderRam wrote:

on the other hand,

This is that kind of discussion.

It’s a “on the other hand” kind of discussion.

Zooey wrote:

I don’t care anymore.

Originally, I was for Wentz. Then I moved towards Goff.

But then I moved towards “why be emotionally invested in this pick when I don’t know the first thing about it, and basically nobody knows how this will turn out anyway?”

Go #1 pick!

yeah the suspense is annoying me.

let’s get the pick in already.