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Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (3:05 p.m. ET on FOX)
Potential mismatch: Rams’ running backs vs. Saints’ Sheldon Rankins-less defensive front.
How much will the Saints miss Rankins, who suffered a torn Achilles last weekend? First, let’s look at the team’s splits with and without the defensive tackle on the field. In 196 rushing downs with Rankins on the field, New Orleans allowed 3.4 yards per play, gave up runs of 10-plus yards at a rate of 6.6 percent and achieved a stuff rate of 23 percent. In 174 rushing downs without Rankins, those numbers changed for the worse: Yards per play jumped to 3.8, the 10-plus-yard-run rate increased to 10.3 percent and the stuff rate dropped to 21.2 percent. Moreover, my computer-vision measurements show that without Rankins on the field, opposing offenses either converted a first down or saw short-yardage situations on later downs at a rate that was 18 percent greater than they did when Rankins was on the field. These are not promising figures for the Saints when you consider Rams running back Todd Gurley averages 5.2 yards per rush between the tackles (ranking fourth amongst RBs with 100-plus rushing attempts between the tackles), according to Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, the emergence of C.J. Anderson in Los Angeles has also meant an increased use of heavier sets, which will be less favorable for New Orleans to face sans Rankins. (Until Week 16, L.A. used 11 personnel on 96.6 percent of its offensive plays; since then, the Rams’ use of 12 personnel is up from 1.2 percent to 41.3 percent, including playoffs.)
Rankins’ absence will also impact New Orleans’ pass defense. Without him on the field, the Saints’ pressure rate dropped from 30.3 percent to 25.1 percent, while their sack rate was cut nearly in half (9.1 percent to 4.7 percent). There just aren’t historical look-alikes for a guy of Rankins’ size who disrupts the game in the same way while lining up where Rankins does. His traditional stat line — even his eight sacks — doesn’t accurately reflect the impact he has. Rankins’ game-saving Week 16 tackle of (Steelers fans, please skip to the next sentence) Pittsburgh receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, which resulted in a forced fumble with 41 seconds left in a 31-28 Saints victory, crystallizes this.
Putting it all together, Rankins’ combined run-stopping and coverage ability help keep the Saints’ defense out of short-yardage situations while preventing opposing drives from continuing — he helps make the opposing offense more one-dimensional and easier to defend. There are many elite aspects to New Orleans’ defensive front, and players like Demario Davis and Cam Jordan do project to anchor the unit well, but the job will be more challenging without the spatial assists Rankins provides. Play-action is a key component of the Rams’ offensive efficiency, so how well the Saints’ defense can adapt to Rankins’ absence will be a major determinant of the final score. This seems especially true when you consider that since Week 16, all five of Jared Goff’s touchdowns have come on play-action passes (two from 12 personnel looks).
Potential mismatch: Rams’ inconsistent run defense vs. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.
I was really hoping Taysom Hill’s propensity for executing trick plays would flag as being a huge factor, because they’re a really fun-to-watch layer of the Saint’s offense, but a much more predictive indicator in this one is the potential for running backs to earn scrimmage yards against the Rams. And it’s less about projecting a repeat performance of Alvin Kamara’s 116-scrimmage-yard effort against the Rams in Week 9 than it is about the inconsistency of the Rams’ front against the run.
This season, the Rams allowed a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry — and over 3 yards per carry were allowed before first contact. This indicates their problem was likely more about the space created (poor gap integrity) than tackling. The Rams also allowed 4.9 yards per rush up the middle (ranking 28th) and at least 5.7 behind each tackle (5.7 behind offensive left tackle and 5.9 behind offensive right tackle, ranked 28th and 25th, respectively). However, against the Cowboys in last week’s playoff game, the Rams’ run defense — and especially Ndamukong Suh — held Dallas to just 50 rushing yards, which helped drive a third-down conversion rate of just 10 percent (1 for 10). Which Rams run defense will show up in the Dome? The more the Saints can succeed on the ground, the less likely Drew Brees is to face pressure from the league’s most disruptive defender, Aaron Donald.
AgamemnonAg, I moved one if that’s okay…http://theramshuddle.com/topic/orlovolsky/#post-96922
that is ok, zn.
Agamemnon
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