predictions: Rams at Arizona

from off the net

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aeneas1

vegas has deemed the cards 7 point home favorites vs the rams this weekend. last weekend vegas deemed the niners 10.5 home favorites vs the rams. and a few weeks ago seattle was tabbed 7 point favorites @ the rams. in fact this weekend will mark the 8th straight time the rams have been named gameday dogs, ever since opening day when the rams were 3.5 home favorites vs the vikes.

anyway the cards haven’t exactly manhandled opponents this season despite their 7-1 record, games have been close after 3 quarters. in fact the cards have trailed after 3 quarters in half the games they’ve played, and have led by a td or more just once after 3 quarters, against the hapless raiders.

however the 4th quarter has been a different story for the cards, that’s when they’ve shined. minus their only loss to the broncos the cards have outscored every opponent they’ve faced in the 4th quarter, to the tune of 70-17, while blanking half of them. all told, arizona’s 4th quarter point differential of +36 is the league’s second best, behind the 5-3 chiefs who are at +37. this might not bode too well for the rams who rank 26th in 4th quarter score margin with a -19 point differential.

Crazylegs wrote:

Protect Davis and give him time and it’s a different Rams offense.

I actually think it’s the other way around. Davis doesn’t yet know how to counter the blitz. A qb is supposed to see that stuff pre-snap and adjust accordingly. Audible if there’s time, throw to a hot read and so on. If that weren’t true, then, blitzes would always work and no offense would ever burn the blitz and all qbs would be under duress every play. But actually offenses can make defenses stop blitzing by making the blitz costly. (There have certainly been several games this year where opposing offenses ate up the Rams defense when it blitzed.) All that depends on the qb however, and Davis does not have that yet, it seems. He also fails to see players downfield when he abandons the pocket, or mis-times his throws sometimes when he abandons the pocket. So I don’t think the issue is the line as much as the qb. In fact I think Davis himself is well aware of this. He talked about it after the Vikes game, that the sacks were on him not the OL, because he wasn’t getting into a rhythm and timing throws from the pocket. You see games where he is aware of that, and you see games where he forgets that.

Blitz cornerstone for effective, successful Cardinals’ defense

November, 1, 2014

http://espn.go.com/blog/arizona-cardinals/post/_/id/10194/blitz-cornerstone-for-effective-successful-cardinals-defense

TEMPE, Ariz. — When Tony Jefferson heard how often the Arizona Cardinals have blitzed since the start of 2013, the safety started to laugh.

He couldn’t believe how high the number was. Arizona has blitzed offenses on 47.5 percent of its dropbacks since Todd Bowles took over the defense last season.

Bowles doesn’t think he’s calling for blitzes at that high of a rate, but when compared to other defenses, the stats don’t lie: Arizona is blitzing at the fourth-highest rate this season, sending five or more pass-rushers on 41.8 percent of dropbacks, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

And if there’s one thing the Dallas Cowboys don’t want to see Sunday, it’s the blitz.

They were blitzed 24 times in a loss to the Washington Redskins, and quarterback Tony Romo was blitzed on 61.5 percent of his dropbacks which led to five sacks according to ESPN Stats & Information.

As Arizona watched Washington continue to exploit the Cowboys on Monday night, the Cardinals winced, however. Without realizing it, the Redskins gave the Cowboys a run-through for what 60 minutes against the Cardinals would be like.

“We were one week late,” linebacker Larry Foote said. “I expect them to be better than what they were Monday night.”

But it’s not like teams don’t know what’s coming against the Cardinals. Five of their seven opponents this season have faced their most blitzes against the Cardinals, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Expect that to continue Sunday against Dallas.

“Just seeing that, I just know that we got to be on point with all our blitzes,” rookie defensive end Kareem Martin said. “I feel like we can do the same thing if we’re effective with ours.”

Even when teams know what’s coming, the Cardinals are still effective, leading the NFL with five interceptions on blitzes. They’re one of three teams in the league with a negative touchdown-to-interception differential when blitzing.

The blitz has become part of Arizona’s defensive fabric. It’s come to define this team, which has battled injuries all season yet has still been able to blitz consistently.

“Just everybody doing their job,” rookie defensive end Kareem Martin said. “That’s the only way the blitz is going to work. Every guy, however many, five-man, six-man blitz, however many guys are in it, as long as every guy is doing their job, that’s the only way it’s going to work.

“As soon as one guy hops out of his gaps and cuts another guy off, it actually becomes the offense’s advantage because they kinda muddy everything up and gives the quarterback a little more time. But when we get to that quarterback and our blitzes are on point, he’s getting rid of that thing fast or we have a lot of pressure on him. That’s the biggest thing.”

With how often the Cards blitz, masking them has become an important part of their success. Opposing quarterbacks struggle slightly against the blitz, completing 60.3 percent of the passes against the Cardinals’ blitz compared to 63.8 percent without facing a blitz. Even though Arizona has the second-fewest sacks in the NFL with seven, four of them have come when they’ve blitzed.

“It kinda confuses,” Jefferson said. “We have so many different blitzes, so I think a lot of guys think we’re doing one thing when were actually doing another.”

But, linebacker Kevin Minter said, every game features different blitzes, which has forced teams to spend more time preparing for the Cardinals’ blitz than they would against most other teams.

“Their focus is on us blitzing,” Jefferson said. “That’s kinda their game plan. They know we’re going to blitz and it makes it hard on them because they’re trying to think about where we’re going to come from.

“A lot of times we come up the middle and the outside so it’s hard for them to realize where we’re coming from.”

And sometimes the Cardinals don’t hide it. They’re just coming.

On the Eagles’ final drive last weekend, when they needed to score a touchdown to win, Bowles called for blitzes on six of Nick Foles’ seven dropbacks. He ended up completing just 1 of 6 passes facing a blitz. Against Philadelphia and San Diego, Arizona blitzed on the final play of the game.

Arizona is allowing the second-lowest QBR in the fourth quarter (21.8) and all five of its interceptions while blitzing have come in the fourth quarter. That’s a large part of why the Cardinals’ plus-9 turnover margin is the second-highest in the NFL.

“It keeps you honest,” Minter said. “You never really know what we’re in. You don’t know who’s coming.”