piling up the "training camp preview" articles, starting with Prisco

Rams Fantasy Preview

Silva

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/55343/59/offseason-low-down

Rams Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 23rd (515)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 26th (395)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 30th (957)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 19th (5.3)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Nick Foles
RB: Todd Gurley
WR: Kenny Britt
WR: Brian Quick
TE: Jared Cook
TE: Lance Kendricks
LT: Greg Robinson
LG: Rodger Saffold
C: Tim Barnes
RG: Jamon Brown
RT: Rob Havenstein

Passing Game Outlook

“Aberration,” “anomaly,” and “fluke” are words most-often used to describe Nick Foles’ 2013, in which he posted a 27:2 TD-to-INT ratio across ten starts while leading the NFL in yards per attempt (9.1). Foles’ YPA regressed to 7.0 last year with 13 touchdowns and 10 picks before his season was cut short by a fractured collarbone. Foles ranked 26th in pass attempts two seasons ago — diminishing the sample size — while Philadelphia finished first in rushing yards and yards per carry. Foles’ 2013 will prove a statistical outlier, but I don’t believe he ever truly changed his stripes. His efficiency was elevated by a league-best running game, an offensive line that started every game together, DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper’s career years, and the newness of Chip Kelly’s innovative offense. As the Eagles’ 2014 run game fell off dramatically, the line endured crippling injuries, Jackson left, Cooper devolved into a league-worst receiver, and the shine of Kelly’s offense wore off a bit, Foles’ production tumbled sharply. Foles has a strong arm and can be an effective pocket manager, but he is a quarterback who is only as good as the parts around him. He’s best utilized as a low-volume passer who can threaten on occasional shot plays. The parts around Foles are significantly worse in St. Louis, while Foles will no longer benefit from the play volume, creativity, and high-percentage nature of Kelly’s scheme. Foles’ new offensive coordinator is someone named “Frank Cignetti.” As a Ram, Foles’ fantasy outlook is bleak.

Kenny Britt will probably never fulfill the early-career promise he flashed in Tennessee, but he came a long way to show signs of being a useful NFL receiver last year. Britt posted a 48-748-3 receiving line on 84 targets, averaging 15.6 yards per catch and staying healthy for the first time since his 2009 rookie year. Still only 26 — he turns 27 in September — Britt re-signed with St. Louis on an incentive-laden two-year deal. With Brian Quick coming off a severe shoulder injury, Britt should have every opportunity to establish himself as Nick Foles’ No. 1 option in the passing game. Britt’s ceiling is lowered by St. Louis’ run-first offense and Britt’s own loss of explosiveness, but I like him as a late-round best-ball pick and sleeper to catch 60-plus balls.

To open last year, the light finally appeared to flip in former No. 33 overall pick Brian Quick’s third NFL season. Emerging as a true No. 1 receiver the Rams so desperately need, Quick was on pace for a 64-973-8 line through six games before a shoulder injury ended his season in Week 8. Quick is huge (6’4/220) with long arms (34 1/4″), and can be an animal when he plays physically. And after dealing with Shaun Hill and Austin Davis in 2014, Quick gets a quarterback upgrade in Nick Foles. Quick’s biggest obstacle is an extensive shoulder operation that repaired his rotator cuff and three torn ligaments, while also costing Quick all of OTAs and minicamp with a new quarterback and offensive coordinator. If Quick does get healthy by Week 1, he will be a sneaky breakout candidate. Quick’s physical skill set is superior to Kenny Britt’s at this stage.

Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin will vie for sub-package snaps when the Rams use more than two receivers, or perhaps even for a starting job if Brian Quick isn’t ready for Week 1. Austin was a much-higher draft pick, but Bailey is a far-better wide receiver and shined in his 2014 opportunities, leading the St. Louis wideout corps in yards after catch, yards after catch per reception, and broken tackles while also receiving terrific PFF run-blocking grades. Although Austin’s failures have widely been blamed on outgoing OC Brian Schottenheimer by those who loved him coming out of college and are consumed by that false narrative, Austin is in fact small (5’9/174) and plays small, has below-average hands, and plays the game without any semblance of physicality. He is Dexter McCluster 2.0. In re-draft and Dynasty leagues, 24-year-old Bailey is the player to keep an eye on. Bailey is deserving of a big role in OC Frank Cignetti’s offense. The only question is whether he’ll get it.

Another contact-averse Rams skill player is Jared Cook, whose soft playing style has long limited his red-zone effectiveness and whose inability to move quickly in short areas has prevented Cook from becoming a high-volume pass catcher. Cook is big (6’5/246) and legitimately runs like a wide receiver (4.50), but he is a straight-linish seam stretcher only, and not a safety-valve tight end who can make things happen on checkdowns. Cook has still finished as a top-15 fantasy tight end in three of the last four seasons, though that’s due largely to the weakness of the tight end position in fantasy football, and not to Cook’s accomplishments. I do think Cook is an underrated TE3 pick in best-ball leagues, where he often lasts until the very last few rounds.

Running Game Outlook

No. 10 overall pick Todd Gurley was a dominant three-down back when healthy in the SEC, turning 510 career carries into 3,285 yards (6.44 YPC) and 36 TDs. He added 65 receptions and six more scores in the passing game. A legitimately special talent with elite tackle-breaking ability and home-run speed, Gurley was also one of the top pass-protecting backs in the 2015 class. Gurley’s skill set is undeniable, but his injury history is concerning. Even before tearing his ACL last November, Gurley battled a torn hip flexor and high ankle sprain in 2013, costing him three games and affecting him in others. Offseason reports on Gurley’s ACL recovery have been upbeat, which was expected. His Week 1 availability remains in doubt, with reserve/PUP — a designation that would cost Gurley the first six games — remaining a real possibility. When Gurley is ready to play, he’ll run behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines in what projects as one of the league’s lowest-scoring offenses. Gurley is talented enough to make my approach to him look stupid, but I’m having a hard time drafting him at his round-four ADP.

Tre Mason returns from a rookie season where he overtook Zac Stacy in Week 7 and piled up 13-plus carries in all but one of St. Louis’ final nine games, averaging a crisp 4.27 YPC despite running behind an offensive line that Football Outsiders graded in the bottom half of the league, and with people named Austin Davis and Shaun Hill at quarterback. Mason showed concerning boom-or-bust tendencies, but did face a schedule of Seattle, San Francisco, and Arizona twice, as well as Denver and Washington. When Mason played the Raiders and Giants, he lit them up. Mason, who doesn’t turn 22 until August 6, is an explosive runner with big-play ability and can handle heavy workloads, exhibiting the traits of a potentially-dynamic workhorse back. While the Rams’ selection of Todd Gurley takes a lot of wind out of Mason’s fantasy sails, the rookie’s injury woes figure to lead to playing time for Mason this year. Mason typically goes in the seventh to ninth rounds of drafts. I like him as an RB3/4 in rounds eight and nine.

Vegas Win Total

Although Jeff Fisher has the reputation of an “8-8 coach,” he’s actually failed to reach eight wins each of his three years in St. Louis. The Rams finally have theoretical quarterback stability after acquiring Nick Foles, but Foles is not the kind of player capable of turning a passing game from a weakness into a strength. On the offensive line, the Rams will start an all-rookie right side of RG Jamon Brown and RT Rob Havenstein, while practice-squad-type Tim Barnes is penciled in at center. The defense is ferocious up front, but vulnerable in the back. I see the Rams as an 8-8 team and so does Vegas, setting their Win Total at 8.0 games. A non-division slate of the AFC North, NFC North, Tampa, and Washington makes me lean toward guessing the Rams go 7-9

rfl wrote:

OK, relax. I won’t go into it all. You guys know the drill

Lol. Your posts are always appreciated, RFL, and always enjoyable reads. I don’t always see eye to eye with every single point, but, I for one (and probably speaking for others) like your stuff.

image: http://walterfootball.com/images/fball/rams3_logo.gif

http://walterfootball.com/offseason2015stl.php

St. Louis Rams (Last Year: 6-10)

2015 NFL Season Preview:

2015 St. Louis Rams Analysis: The Rams will once again be very competitive, but a brutal early schedule, a weak offensive line, and Todd Gurley’s expected missed playing time could do them in. St. Louis will once again be close to owning a .500 record, but it probably won’t be able to make the push into the playoffs.

Veteran Additions:

QB Nick Foles, QB Case Keenum, G Mike Person, DT Nick Fairley, OLB Akeem Ayers.

Early Draft Picks:

RB Todd Gurley, OT Rob Havenstein, OT Jamon Brown, QB Sean Mannion, OT Andrew Donnal. Rams Rookie Forecast

Offseason Losses:

QB Sam Bradford, QB Shaun Hill, RB Zac Stacy, OT Jake Long, OT Joseph Barksdale, G Davin Joseph, C Scott Wells, DT Kendall Langford.

2015 St. Louis Rams Offense:

The Rams never had a chance last year because Sam Bradford tore his ACL during the preseason. Of course, this was expected, given how injury-prone Bradford has been over the years. St. Louis fans always had to hold their breath every time Bradford was tackled or simply fell down on his own, so it must be a relief for them that they no longer have to do that.

Having said that, Nick Foles isn’t completely durable either, having missed eight games in 2014. Foles did well in Chip Kelly’s offense and was on pace for a 4,000-yard season prior to going down with a broken collarbone. Foles’ numbers will definitely decrease in a lower-volume, run-based offense, as the Rams will ask him to manage games instead of throw 40 times. This could be an issue because of Foles’ accuracy – he completed 59.8 percent of his passes this past season – though being more reliable than Bradford, he’s obviously an upgrade over the two backup signal-callers who quarterbacked the Rams in Bradford’s absence last year.

It’ll be ideal if St. Louis can establish a constant, dominant ground attack to keep Foles’ passes to a minimum. The front office had this in mind when it spent the No. 10 overall selection on Todd Gurley. The Georgia product was considered the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson, and one team thought so highly of him that it labeled him to be the next Jim Brown. The current problem is that Gurley is coming off a torn ACL, so he might miss the first few weeks of the season. Tre Mason, who gained 765 yards as a rookie last year, will carry the load in his absence.

Gurley and Mason are talented, but will they have adequate running lanes to burst through? That’s a legitimate concern, as both tackles from last year, Jake Long and Joseph Barksdale, are gone. The Rams will go with the underwhelming duo of Greg Robinson and Rob Havenstein as replacements. Robinson, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, struggled mightily when thrust into action during his rookie campaign. He might improve, but he looked like he had a long way to go. Havenstein, meanwhile, was widely considered a reach in the second round this spring. Being completely unproven, Havenstein could perform poorly, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone.

It’s only better in the interior of the offensive line by default. Left guard Rodger Saffold is the best blocker the team has by a wide margin, but he also has durability concerns. Last year’s starting center and right guard, Scott Wells and Davin Joseph, are also off the team, so two of Tim Barnes, Barrett Jones or Andrew Donnal will start in their place. Barnes, an undrafted free agent back in 2011, has just four career starts under his belt, and didn’t look good in any of them. Jones, a fourth-round choice in 2013, has barely seen the field. Donnal is a fourth-round rookie, so it’s impossible to know what he’ll bring to the table.

It’s likely that Foles won’t have much time in the pocket, so he obviously will have to lean on throwing the ball to solid intermediate target Jared Cook rather than connecting with his band of No. 2 receivers. Brian Quick is the best of the bunch – he had some big performances early in 2014 – but missed nine games because of a shoulder injury. Kenny Britt is the other starter, while Stedman Bailey will man the slot. Britt, only 26, is capable of being extremely productive – he had a 9-103 line in Week 16 – but injuries and lack of motivation are concerns with him. Bailey is a neat option, but I’m sure St. Louis would rather have former first-rounder Tavon Austin be more productive. Austin, who had 31 catches this past season, has been nothing more than a gimmick player thus far. Offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti told the media that he plans on getting Austin more involved, but it remains to be seen how realistic that plan is.

2015 St. Louis Rams Defense:

The Rams will once again have to lean on their defense to carry them, at least until Todd Gurley returns from injury. It didn’t look like the St. Louis stop unit was going to have much success this past season when it surrendered multiple 30-point performances in the early going, but the team limited the opposition to just 19.9 points per game beginning in Week 6. The difference? Aaron Donald.

Donald, the 2014 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, was just a part-time player until Jeff Fisher made the decision to insert the Pittsburgh product into the starting lineup. The impact was tremendous, as Donald dominated the trenches in all aspects. He clogged running lanes and aside from Robert Quinn, he happened to be the team’s best pass-rusher, accumulating nine sacks. That’s a big number for a defensive tackle who didn’t make a start until Week 6. And what’s scary is that he did this as a mere rookie. He could be even better in 2015.

The Rams have a very talented group up front overall with Donald, the otherworldly Quinn, Chris Long and Michael Brockers as the starters. Long didn’t perform well last season because he played through the final few weeks on one leg. Brockers has never developed into the pass-rusher the Rams were hoping he would be when they chose him in the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft, but he’s very effective at containing the run. Besides, St. Louis can substitute Brockers with the newly acquired Nick Fairley on passing downs. Fairley has work-ethic concerns, but his talent level is off the charts, and when motivated, he can be an absolute terror on the interior.

St. Louis will once again be able to generate tons of pressure, which will continue to aid the secondary. All four starters plus the nickel will return in 2015, as no changes were made to this group. The top corner, Janoris Jenkins, didn’t perform especially well this past season because he was hampered by a lingering knee injury. He should bounce back to form, if healthy. He’ll start across from E.J. Gaines, who surprised many by being effective despite being a sixth-round rookie. Trumaine Johnson will reprise his role as an adequate slot corner.

Rounding out the secondary, T.J. McDonald and Rodney McLeod figure to start at safety, though Mark Barron, acquired via trade during the 2014 campaign, will fight for playing time. Both McDonald and McLeod were solid, but unspectacular last season. Barron, being a former first-round choice, is more talented than them, so it’s possible that he could crack the lineup.

The weakest group in St. Louis’ defense is the linebacking corps. James Laurinaitis is a big name, but he hasn’t played well in years, and he actually has regressed each season. Former first-rounder Alec Ogletree also needs to step up, as he has disappointed thus far in his career. Akeem Ayers, signed over from the Patriots, figures to be a solid contributor on the first two downs.

2015 St. Louis Rams Schedule and Intangibles:

Remember when the Edwards Jones Dome was such a huge advantage for the Greatest Show on Turf? The magic is gone, as the Rams went just 3-5 as hosts last year. They lost by double digits at home on three occasions.

Greg Zuerlein’s nickname is “Greg the Leg” because of his massive kicking power. He blasted 5-of-7 tries from 50-plus this past season, but hit just 80 percent of his kicks overall. He nailed 92.9 percent of his tries the year before.

Johnny Hekker maintained the highest net-punting average at 44.2 in 2013, and he was fourth in that category this past season (42.3).

St. Louis was great on special teams last year, though it did have some trouble defending kickoffs. However, the team scored twice on punt returns, outgaining the opposition by more than six yards on those.

Four of the Rams’ initial five games are against the Seahawks, Steelers, Cardinals and Packers. A 1-4 start could capsize their playoff hopes, though their slate definitely gets easier after that.

from Redskins, Raiders, Rams among potential playoff sleeper teams

By Adam Schein

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000504203/article/redskins-raiders-rams-among-potential-playoff-sleeper-teams?campaign=facebook_writers_schein

6) St. Louis Rams

The case for hope! The defensive line is absolutely loaded, with Pro Bowler Robert Quinn, reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Aaron Donald, Chris Long, Michael Brockers and even offseason addition Nick Fairley. Good luck blocking that group of maulers. Overall, this defense should be a major strength. On the other side of the ball, I loved the Todd Gurley selection. When the running back returns to the field, Gurley will join Tre Mason to give the Rams a very enticing young backfield. And Nick Foles actually exists, unlike Sam Bradford, whom I have dubbed “Big Foot” because the oft-injured quarterback seems more like an urban legend than a franchise player.

Having said that … The NFC West has two of the conference’s three best teams in the Seahawks and Cardinals. And beyond these familiar foes, the Rams draw the AFC North and NFC North — two highly competitive divisions. That’s a tough row to hoe. And while the defensive line is superb, the O-line is littered with holes.

from Scout Picks Packers-Patriots Super Bowl, Breaks Down Every Team

By Mike Freeman

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/…rs-patriots-super-bowl-breaks-down-every-team

…

Arizona Cardinals: “With Carson Palmer back, they have a really good shot at unseating the Seahawks in the division. They’re the only team that can do it because of their quarterback play. They also have the defense to slow down that running game. But I think [there’s a] good chance they win the division this year.”

San Francisco 49ers: “I know Jim [Harbaugh] could be a pain in the ass. He’s an odd guy. Really bright guy also. One of the smartest in all of football. The 49ers won’t be [the] same without him. That whole situation could implode pretty quickly.”

Seattle Seahawks: “I’m not convinced the addition of Jimmy Graham will transform that offense the way so many people seem to believe. The Saints always threw the football. The Seahawks won’t do that. They’ll still give it to Marshawn [Lynch]. They’ll use Graham to loosen up things for Marshawn, not the other way around. I also think we’re going to see just how good a coach Pete Carroll really is. He has [the] toughest job in the sport next year. Getting the team to recover from that Super Bowl loss will not be easy. I don’t care how talented they are.”

St. Louis Rams: “I think Nick Fairley will be good, if not really good. I know him. He has pride and doesn’t want to be known as a bust. That’s also a very professional locker room he’s going to. I don’t think the one in Detroit had as many true pros when Nick played there. Big problem for the Rams is that offense. It will be one of the bottom five in football.”

from Who reaches Super Bowl 50? 2015 NFL record projections for all 32 teams

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2015/08/04/record-projections-super-bowl-50-packers-colts/30985171/

NFC WEST

Seahawks (12-4): Open with pair of tough roadies (Rams, Packers) and play three of final five away from comfy CenturyLink Field, so need to make hay in the middle. Week 2 game at Green Bay could determine NFC’s home field.

Rams (10-6): Catch potentially battered Seahawks in opener and may not get full dose of Le’Veon Bell in his Week 3 debut. After Oct. 11 game at Lambeau Field, Rams leave St. Louis once in subsequent five weeks, good time for Nick Foles to find groove.

Cardinals (9-7): Three 1 p.m. ET kickoffs aren’t good news for a team that’s historically struggled on East Coast. But healthy Cards should be in the mix provided new-look defense clicks without Todd Bowles.

49ers (5-11): A schedule that includes the AFC North and NFC North doesn’t look particularly forgiving to a team that lost so many key vets to retirement and is adjusting to regime change as well.

McDonald and McCloud are a grossly underrated tandem at safety

“McCloud” [sic]

Yes the Rams secondary consists of Gerkins, Jensyn, McDonCorleone, and McCloud. There’s also Barren and Jointier. Ganes is out with an injury, so they signed Read.

As a unit, they are grotesquely, if not sublimely, underappreciated. That kind of massive neglect will end if they learn to play well as a unit.

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