Oh, I think Donald just made a fatal mistake

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  • #65884
    Zooey
    Moderator

    link: http://occupydemocrats.com/2017/03/04/republican-senate-judiciary-member-just-gave-trump-terrible-wiretap-news/

    I think this may be the tipping point at which an independent “special prosecutor” becomes inevitable. The suspicions have been there; the smoke has been there. I think the quantity of information that is already known is enough to warrant a formal investigation, but there is also the political aspect of it, the ability for political allies to stonewall things as long as the public isn’t well-informed, but I think this may be it.

    By accusing Obama of wiretapping Trump Tower in October, he has just publicly accused Obama of committing a felony. Now, that may be something one dismisses from an idiot reality TV star, but when the POTUS makes that kind of accusation, well…it gets a response.

    So either Trump 1) made something up that is completely untrue, 2) has evidence Obama committed a felony, or 3) learned that he was wiretapped by a FISA order while Obama was president.

    Number 3 is by far the most likely in which case Trump has just declassified information that a judge ruled that there was enough evidence of criminal activity in the Trump camp that a wiretap was warranted, and proceeded to grant the intelligence agency permission to formally place him under surveillance.

    Now, the FISA order would not be surprising given what we know. What is important, imo, is that the entire question of Russian involvement has just got a lot more credibility in the public domain. This will be the topic of discussion on Face the Nation, and all the other Sunday shows tomorrow.

    This, combined with Sessions’ recusal, leads to a special prosecutor, and I can’t see Trump surviving it when it is clear he has deep ties to Russia, and no brains.

    #65886
    zn
    Moderator

    Even then that would make Pence the president. That’s not much better. Unless Pence is implicated. If so that would make Paul Ryan the next in line, and he is unlikely to be implicated in this.

    #65892
    Zooey
    Moderator

    Even then that would make Pence the president. That’s not much better. Unless Pence is implicated. If so that would make Paul Ryan the next in line, and he is unlikely to be implicated in this.

    Yes, but it also likely means the end of Bannon, and I think at this point I’d trade Trump and Bannon for Pence. Could also mean the end of Tillerson, and Ross.

    #65894
    PA Ram
    Participant

    Well, it’s not good for the Republicans who have backed Trump at this point.

    But yes–they will have control for 4 years no matter what happens.

    I’m not sure that this isn’t something Trump just read on InfoWars and believed it. So it may be meaningless. But in any case I heard Steve King this morniing the radical rethug from Iowa and even he said that an investigation may be in order—and then he said it needs to go back to Hillary so she can be investigated. I don’t know for what, exactly. But the message seemed to be that the Dems were going down with them if the Republicans had to take the hit for any of this.

    I have been doing a LOT of reading about Russia lately. I’ve been watching documentaries, I’m on my fourth book, and I’ve scanned numerous articles.

    And through it all–as bad as things are here, I keep telling myself–at least it’s not Russia.

    But I’m not so sure it isn’t becoming that. And that’s a terrifying thought.

    We have a long way to go–but maybe not as long as it used to be.

    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away. " Philip K. Dick

    #65896
    nittany ram
    Moderator

    Trump appears absolutely oblivious about the potential ramifications of this which leads me to wonder if he just didn’t make it all up. 10 minutes after tweeting about an alleged wiretap perpetrated against him that if true, would have Watergate-level implications, he was tweeting about how Arnold Schwartnegger was fired from hosting The Apprentice.

    #65897
    wv
    Participant

    I dont think it will lead anywhere. I think Trump can prettymuch say whatever he wants at this point and there will be no real consequences.

    w
    v

    #65901
    Zooey
    Moderator

    Trump appears absolutely oblivious about the potential ramifications of this which leads me to wonder if he just didn’t make it all up. 10 minutes after tweeting about an alleged wiretap perpetrated against him that if true, would have Watergate-level implications, he was tweeting about how Arnold Schwartnegger was fired from hosting The Apprentice.

    Well, I just got up, and I see the WH has denied that there was a court order…so…presumably that story gets confirmed one way or another pretty quickly.

    #65915
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    Even then that would make Pence the president. That’s not much better. Unless Pence is implicated. If so that would make Paul Ryan the next in line, and he is unlikely to be implicated in this.

    Eventually, somehow it will get to me as President. But I believe you are ahead of me on that list, if correct, unless you bypass it or something, then it goes to WV, then Zooey, then me or some wackey order. But eventually the President will get to me.

    #65963
    zn
    Moderator

    Trump’s Wiretapping Accusations: Here’s What the Government Can Actually Do

    Ashley Gorski, Staff Attorney, ACLU National Security Project
    & Patrick Toomey, Staff Attorney, ACLU National Security Project

    https://www.aclu.org/blog/speak-freely/trumps-wiretapping-accusations-heres-what-government-can-actually-do

    On Saturday morning, President Donald Trump posted a series of angry tweets, accusing former President Barack Obama of engaging in a “Nixon/Watergate”-style plot to tap the phones at Trump Tower during the election.

    As an initial matter, it’s important to emphasize that little has actually been reliably verified. While many critical details remain unknown, portions of President Trump’s statements seem consistent with earlier news reports that, prior to the election, the FBI sought to surveil members of the Trump campaign team under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). That law, passed by Congress in 1978 to prevent abuses of executive power, allows the government to surveil foreign powers and their agents with the approval of a secret court.

    Given Trump’s claims, the ongoing investigations into his campaign’s ties with Russia, and the confusion and speculation that Trump’s tweets have caused, it’s crucial to understand how FISA surveillance actually works.

    In 1978, largely in response to unlawful and improper surveillance by the executive branch, Congress passed FISA to regulate surveillance conducted for foreign intelligence purposes. Under FISA, when the government seeks to conduct certain types of surveillance on U.S. soil, it is generally required to apply for and obtain an individualized order from a judge on the FISA Court. If an American is the target of the surveillance, that application must be reviewed and approved by the attorney general before it goes to the FISA Court.

    In order to authorize the wiretapping, the FISA Court judge must find — based on evidence presented in the application — that there is probable cause to believe that the “target” of the surveillance is a foreign power or agent of a foreign power. The judge must also find probable cause to believe that the phone line, email account, or computer where the surveillance will occur is being used by a foreign power or agent of a foreign power. Individuals who are in contact with the government’s target may have their communications swept up too, though the government must apply court-approved procedures, known as “minimization” procedures, to limit the intrusion into Americans’ privacy.

    Despite Congress’s laudable aims in enacting FISA originally, the ACLU has long argued that surveillance under FISA raises serious constitutional concerns, because FISA orders are not nearly as protective as wiretapping warrants in criminal cases. With a traditional wiretap, the government must establish probable cause that its surveillance will lead to evidence of a crime, and strict minimization rules are applied to protect the privacy of non-targets whose information could get swept up by the wiretap. With FISA surveillance, the government need only establish that there’s probable cause to believe that its target is an agent of a foreign power and is using a particular phone line, email account, or other communications “facility.” In addition, the purpose of FISA surveillance — to obtain wide-ranging “foreign intelligence information” — is much broader than a typical wiretap, and can extend, for example, to information related to the foreign affairs of the United States. Those are extremely broad parameters. Finally, the minimization rules under FISA are far less protective of Americans’ privacy interests.

    The Guardian reported that, last summer, the FBI sought an order from the FISA Court for permission to monitor four members of the Trump campaign team suspected of “irregular contacts” with Russian officials. Reports suggest that the initial application was denied — a detail President Trump appears to have confirmed in his tweets. But, according to other news reports, a judge on the FISA Court eventually granted a narrower surveillance application in October 2016. While these accounts all indicate that the FBI relied on FISA to conduct its spying, we don’t know exactly whom the FBI sought to target or on what grounds. One story suggests that the government ultimately obtained permission to target individuals or entities in Russia who were believed to be communicating with then-candidate Trump and at least three other members of the Trump campaign. Because the identities of the “targets” named in the wiretap order are still unknown, it’s unclear whom, exactly, the FISA Court found to be a foreign agent when it authorized the surveillance.

    Regardless of who the target was, however, it is critical to note that this FISA surveillance would have been individually approved by a court and could not simply have been conducted on President Obama’s order — a point made clearly in a statement released over the weekend by a spokesperson for the former president. Indeed, that was the very type of abuse that FISA was enacted to prevent.

    There is no doubt we need more information to shed light on what did and did not happen. But one thing is clear. Anyone genuinely concerned about the unconstitutional surveillance of Americans should turn their attention to reforming one especially problematic section of FISA: Section 702, which the government relies on to surveil essentially all Americans’ international communications. Unlike “traditional” FISA, which at least requires the government to obtain an individualized court order to conduct surveillance, Section 702 authorizes the warrantless surveillance of vast quantities of international communications, with virtually no judicial oversight.

    Assisted by companies like Facebook, Google, AT&T, and Verizon, the government uses this law to monitor Americans’ communications with foreigners abroad. In doing so, the government sweeps up billions of international emails, web-browsing activities, and phone calls — which NSA, CIA, and FBI analysts can then sift through looking for information about Americans. While there have been no public indications of this to date, it’s possible that Section 702 surveillance also captured communications between the Trump campaign team and the same Russian entities abroad.

    Section 702 is set to expire at the end of the year, unless Congress renews it. Instead, Congress must reform this law, which harms the privacy rights both of people abroad and virtually all Americans.

    #65964
    nittany ram
    Moderator

    Even then that would make Pence the president. That’s not much better. Unless Pence is implicated. If so that would make Paul Ryan the next in line, and he is unlikely to be implicated in this.

    Obviously none of those things are good outcomes.
    There are no good outcomes.
    The best we can hope for is that the dems regain some control of
    congress in 2018 so that some resistance can be mounted against Trumps policies. Then we can hope that in 2020 we can replace Trump with a marginally better corporate democrat.

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