Juan Cole: The hostages are about the mid-terms

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June 20, 2018 at 2:20 pm #87493

Zooey
Moderator

It’s All About the Midterms: Trump Took Those Children Hostage to Stoke His Base

Journalists have almost certainly misunderstood the Trump White House as they pen the flurry of articles and television commentary about the White House abruptly being “worried” about the fallout from the Family Separation Policy announced in May by John Kelly and reaffirmed this month by Attorney General Jeff Sessions and “Eminence Grise Jr.,” Stephen Miller.

This “worry” is said to have impelled the president and his aides to have Department of Homeland Security head Kirstjen Nielsen fly up Monday from New Orleans to tell lies about the policy, instead of having press secretary Sarah Sanders do it. (This move, despite what some reports speculate, almost certainly had nothing to do with Sanders being reluctant to go on lying about the Trump policy and attributing it to the congressional Democrats, which is a lie.)

Here is an alternative scenario. This crew are psychopaths and, as their attempt to blame the Democrats for their own policy shows, unrepentant professional prevaricators. They don’t have a kind bone in their bodies, and on the contrary, spontaneously orgasm at the thought of the opportunity to be sadistic to others. The Family Separation Policy is not something they regret or worry about, it is something that gets them off.

But it can’t be explained entirely by mere sadism, though the policy certainly wells up from that motivation.

The Trump White House is still being advised by Steve Bannon, and Bannon is on record that immigration is a winning issue for Trump– that whenever and however it becomes a headline, Trump wins and the Democrats lose.

Trump desperately needs to have the GOP do well in the November midterms. Those midterms are a big question mark. Trump has an advantage inasmuch as voters in off years, when the presidency is not being voted on, tend to be whiter, richer and older than the voters in presidential election years. Laid against that general advantage is the tendency for the president’s party to lose seats in the midterm. American voters, whether they strategize this issue or not, appear to like split government and don’t usually like to put all their eggs electorally in the basket of one party. Election years in which one party does well, such as 2004 or 2008 or 2016, are usually followed by years in which voters put the opposite party to the one in the White House in charge of Congress.

What Trump needs to win the midterms is for his base to be exercised and excited, and for the Democratic base to be prevented from voting through various forms of voter suppression. These include voter ID., purging rolls of voters in good standing, and spreading fake news about Democratic Party candidates and policies.

Ripping infants out of the arms of their mothers excites Trump’s base. Some 46% of Republicans approve of the policy, according to an Ipsos poll done for the Daily Beast. And only 32% of Republicans disagree.

Trump’s base has been primed to believe that undocumented immigration into the United States is suddenly a huge crisis. It isn’t. More Mexican-Americans, for instance, leave annually than come in. There may have been a problem in the 1980s and 1990s. But not now. The reason we should not call the policy Zero Tolerance is that the Bush and Obama administrations deported some 400,000 persons a year. There was already zero tolerance. What changed was the charging of asylum seekers and economic migrants as criminals and the consequent removal of their children to concentration camps. His base will likely agree that the situation was created by the Democrats.

If Trump’s policy is overturned, he can use that action to expand his base, by playing the martyr to liberal perfidy. He can also accuse Democrats of letting criminal gangsters (never mind that they are two years old) into the country. Trump has drunk the Bannon Kool-Aid.

So while it may be, as corporate media tells us, that only a third of Americans agree with the Family Separation Policy, that statistic is irrelevant. In a typical midterm, only about a third of the electorate comes out to vote. If 46% of Republicans come out, but, as in Ohio and elsewhere, Democratic votes can be suppressed by purging the voting registration rolls, then Trump wins. After all, that is how he got into the White House in the first place.

Trump’s base comprises evangelicals and others who often have an authoritarian mindset, who will likely believe his lie that Family Separation is a Democratic project, and based on Democratic legislation. Fox will help spread this monstrous falsehood. Nothing in the law requires Trump to prosecute refugees who seek asylum in the US for criminal misdemeanors (which triggers the family separation, since children are not allowed to accompany parents into a federal penitentiary.)

So far from fretting or regretting, Trump is using the immigration issue to whip up sentiment in his base, in hopes that it will turn into a strong showing in the midterms and allow Trump to keep control of Congress.

You might say, America is better than this.

And I will say, the proof is in the pudding.

June 20, 2018 at 8:55 pm #87499

wv
Participant

I agree with bannon that Immigration is Trump’s strongest issue.

Trump voters are convinced immigrants take Jobs. Not real complicated.

w
v

June 21, 2018 at 1:06 am #87509

zn
Moderator

ZOOEY, from a different forum:

Personally, I am not among those people who think illegal immigration is even a problem. Since 2007, the net flow of illegal immigrants has been declining anyway. More are leaving than are coming in. Furthermore, counter to what people assume and pass off as truth, illegal immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than the American population does, and they pay taxes, often including Social Security taxes, for benefits they are ineligible to receive. They will never receive SS benefits, so they are working here, and leaving money behind. Multiple studies show they contribute more to the economy than they cost. So that entire resentment of these people is completely bogus. However, there are real issues. To pick just one, migrant workers migrate. So they often work their way North gradually as the harvest unfolds. Consequently, their kids will be in a school for 6 weeks, removed and placed in another school for a month, and moved again. This is problematic for everybody. It is totally disruptive. They also bring language issues into schools. So there are some things that need to be looked at, but overall, this problem is greatly exaggerated, and the unspeakable truth nobody wants to admit is that race is the underlying factor in people’s attitudes. They will deny it (most of them), but that is a big part of this issue. And I want to add that even though I think this issue is completely blown out of proportion, I am not opposed to implementing methods of decreasing illegal immigration. My only standard there is that those methods respect human rights. This current policy clearly violates human rights, and is being condemned as such.

The Republican leadership is very, very smart. And this is what I think is REALLY going on: Trump is not trying to “fix” the problem of illegal immigration. He is trying to stop Immigration period. At least from Shithole Countries. I say that because he is not only saying that illegal immigration has to stop, he not only wants a wall, he wants a reduction in the numbers of immigrants who come from south of the border LEGALLY. That’s what he has said that he wants in immigration “reform.” He wants a wall, and he wants zero tolerance, and he wants a reduction in the number of LEGAL immigrants. There is a very good reason for that for people who want to preserve their concept of America as a “New and Improved Europe.” The demographic current is overtaking Republicans. That is reality. Texas – at the current rate – is within ten years of turning blue. When it turns blue, that will be the end of the Republicans ever occupying the White House. Texas is just two decades behind California demographically. I believe THAT is what is really behind all of this immigration debate. That is why Trump and the Republican party want “rule of law.” Demographic trends are going to bury Republicans by 2030.

I read an article describing studies on the differences between liberals and conservatives, and it turns out that conservatives have a greater intolerance of insecurity and fear. As a group, they are much more likely to be motivated by what they perceive as instability in the social order, whereas liberals are much more comfortable with change and surprises. Conservatives like clear power hierarchies, and are much more authoritarian generally. Liberals are more comfortable in fluid, democratic consensus-building. That’s why Willie Horton worked. That’s why ISIS works so well. That’s why the Right is always threatening their base with boogiemen. You know, 3 months ago, 99% of Americans had never heard of MS-13. Now they’re all scared they are pouring across the border. It’s how they get the vote out. So…this immigration thing…this appeals to conservative fears.

June 21, 2018 at 2:32 am #87513

zn
Moderator

Trump’s Ploy

Josh Marshall

link: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trumps-ploy

The President says he’s signing an executive order to end family separations. The actual aim seems to be to pick a fight with the courts and allow separations to continue while blaming judges. According to The New York Times, the President will sign an executive order allowing children to be detained indefinitely with their parents. The problem is that that violates a 1997 consent decree saying that you can’t detain/imprison children for more than 20 days (technically what’s currently happening isn’t detention). It straight up violates that order. So what will almost inevitably happen is that a court will step in, say you can’t do that and then Trump will announce that the judge is forcing him to keep separating families.

===

Trump’s immigration order replaces one crisis with another

link: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trumps-ploy

WASHINGTON

President Donald Trump’s immigration executive order attempts to solve one contentious action — the separation of families — but will bring back another — locking them up together indefinitely.

The order, which Trump signed Wednesday, directs the Department of Homeland Security to keep families intact when they are caught crossing the border. However, it seeks to allow families to be detained together throughout the duration of their court proceedings.

“The administration’s idea of a solution to a problem it caused is to keep children jailed indefinitely alongside their parents,” Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., told McClatchy. “Because immigration courts are flooded, cases can take months or years to adjudicate. It is immoral to lock up children for an undetermined amount of time while families wait through a drawn-out legal process. ”

Trump’s decision to sign an executive order to end the separation of children from their parents at the border comes after his administration began enforcing a new zero tolerance policy that calls for prosecuting all adults who crosses the border illegally. Children are separated from their parents, held in separate facilities and then sent to a shelter and eventually to stay with sponsors. The separation of children from parents has led to bipartisan protest across the United States and Congress as images of children in cages and sounds of crying babies dominated the news and social media.

“So we’re going to have strong, very strong borders, but we’re going to keep the families together,” Trump said Wednesday when signing the order. “I didn’t like the sight or the feeling of families being separated.”

Wednesday’s order leaves several unanswered questions: What happens to the more than 2,000 children already separated from their parents since April; where will the families be housed? What happens after 20 days, the limit a court settlement currently allows for children to be detained?

The House is scheduled to vote on a broader immigration package Thursday that also would allow the indefinite detention of immigrant families. Democrats are expected to vote against the bill but many Republicans, including a group of moderate lawmakers, are expected to vote for the bill. It is not clear the bill will pass.

It’s unclear how long it will take for Trump’s order to be implemented. In order to hold families together indefinitely, it directs Attorney General Jeff Sessions to try to modify a 1997 court agreement, known as the Flores settlement, that prohibits the federal government from keeping children, even with their parent, in immigration detention for more than 20 days.

Gene Hamilton, an aide to Attorney General Jeff Sessions, told reporters in a call explaining the order that the Flores settlement put the administration in “an untenable” position.

Hamilton said the order takes effect immediately, but Homeland Security and the Department of Health and Human Services can decide when to implement it.

He could not say what happens to all the children already separated from parents.

It also allows the Department of Homeland Security to separate children from parents if they believe the child may be in danger.

Leon Fresco, a deputy assistant attorney general under President Barack Obama, who defended that administration’s use of family detention, said the administration must decide in what order they’re going to implement the terms of the executive order.

“Are they going ask for permission or seek forgiveness?” he said. “If they detain first, they’re going to ask for foregiveness? If they’re going to go to the court first, they’re asking for permission.”

He said there is nothing wrong with the administration seeking to modify the Flores settlement, but expects it will fail.

“Children should not be separated from their parents who are seeking asylum — but neither can the answer be the indefinite jailing of these children with their parents,” said Todd Schulte, president of FWD.us, a pro-business group created by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg to work on immigration issues. “We reject this false choice.”

Family detention surged during President Barack Obama’s term when a surge of Salvadoran, Honduran and Guatemalan immigrants raced into the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, fleeing violence and poverty, leading the Department of Homeland Security to significantly increased its capacity to house families.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement argued that family residential centers were an effective and humane alternative by keeping families together as they awaited their immigration hearings or are deported. But immigrants complained of poor conditions and isolation at the centers.

“The idea that the way to end family separation is to indefinitely jail kids with their parents in family gulags at the border is as morally reprehensible as separating kids from their parents,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, an immigration advocacy group.”

===

4 things you need to know about Trump’s new immigration order

It trades family separation for family detainment.

REBEKAH ENTRALGO

link: https://thinkprogress.org/4-things-trumps-new-immigration-order-7baf393fc9cf/

After mounting pressure from activists and concerned Americans, President Donald Trump signed an executive order Wednesday hoping to find an end to the family separation policy his own administration implemented.

“I didn’t like the sight or the feeling of families being separated,” Trump told reporters. “I think anybody with a heart would feel strongly about it. We don’t like to see families separated.”

In a tweet shortly after the president signed the executive order, House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi described the action as just “replac[ing] one form of child abuse with another.”

Trump’s reversal on family separation doesn’t put an end to the humanitarian crisis. In fact, his new order contains several provisions with disturbing implications. Here’s what you need to know.

Indefinite family detention takes the place of separation

While the order states the administration’s policy is to now “maintain family unity, including by detaining alien families together,” the language is exceedingly broad, allowing the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to detain families together.

Under the order, families will be kept in DHS custody until both the criminal case against the parent and the immigration case against the family are completed. For a family seeking asylum, as many who cross the border or entry through a port of entry are, that can take weeks or months.

The Obama administration attempted to detain families in 2014 to disastrous results immigration lawyers have described as a “shit show.”

The order also doesn’t explicitly end family separation at the border. Families will be reunited “to the extent permitted by law and subject to the availability of appropriations,” effectively giving the administration an out.

The only way to solve the current crisis is to end the zero tolerance policy and stop prosecuting the act of migration. The administration, however, has made it clear the zero tolerance approach to immigration will not stop.

The administration knows what it is doing is illegal

The Trump administration is calling on Attorney General Jeff Sessions to ask the courts to change their stance on the Flores settlement and make indefinite detainment of families legal.

The president addresses this in a portion of the executive order that reads: “The Attorney General shall promptly file a request with the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California to modify the Settlement Agreement in Flores v. Sessions, CV 85-4544 (‘Flores settlement’), in a manner that would permit the Secretary, under present resource constraints, to detain alien families together throughout the pendency of criminal proceedings for improper entry or any removal or other immigration proceedings.”

As it was interpreted by courts under President Obama, the Flores settlement prevents the federal government from keeping children in immigration detention for longer than 20 days. Most asylum cases, however, take much longer than 20 days. As a result, it is highly likely that this executive order will lead the government to violate the Flores settlement as it stands now.

Senior Justice Department officials have confirmed since Trump signed the executive order that the Flores settlement still takes precedent.

JUST IN: Senior Justice Department official Gene Hamilton confirms the Flores settlement still controls, and that unless Congress or the court acts, the government can only detain families together for "up to 20 days."

— Steven Portnoy (@stevenportnoy) June 20, 2018

There is the possibility courts won’t accept Sessions’ request, leaving it up to Congress to pass legislation that would overrule Flores.

It’s unclear whether there are facilities suitable for families available

With Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) increasingly running out of space to house adults, where will these thousands of children be housed? The administration believes the answer is housing families in federal prisons or requiring the military to provide the space.

One of the problems with “detaining and maintaining” immigrant families, as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) puts it, is that in some cases, the children are put in even more danger. Recently it was revealed that a Texas sheriff’s deputy at a family shelter sexually assaulted a 4-year-old migrant child. The mother, an undocumented immigrant, was being blackmailed to stay silent about the abuse or face deportation.

According to Trump’s new order, the Secretary of Defense will be responsible for the construction of the facilities.

“The Secretary of Defense shall take all legally available measures to provide to the Secretary, upon request, any existing facilities available for the housing and care of alien families, and shall construct such facilities if necessary and consistent with law,” the order reads. “The Secretary, to the extent permitted by law, shall be responsible for reimbursement for the use of these facilities.”

The government doesn’t have a stellar track record with constructing facilities that house children. According to an investigation from Reveal, the Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) Office of Refugee Resettlement paid $3.4 billion dollars to private companies that house migrant children from 2014 to 2018. Of that amount, 44 percent of the funds went to companies facing serious allegations of child mistreatment.

The damage has been done

Trump’s executive order does not address what will happen to the more than 2,300 children who were separated from their families at the border as a result of the administration’s policy.

Officials at the Department of Health and Human Services confirmed Wednesday that the government will not make any special efforts to help these children find their families.

An HHS official tells @weijia that there will NOT be special efforts made to reunite children who have already been separated from their families bc of the Zero Tolerance Policy, despite Trumps EO. Process will proceed for minors currently in the unaccompanied children program.

— Jacqueline Alemany (@JaxAlemany) June 20, 2018

And what’s more, the government currently has no clear plan for how to reunite families either.

June 21, 2018 at 7:35 am #87516

wv
Participant

June 21, 2018 at 7:37 am #87517

PA Ram
Participant

I used to think Trump was just a stupid oaf who appealed to a certain block of ignorant voters. And Trump is in many ways a stupid oaf. But he does understand his base. He gets that. He knows who he’s playing to. And he seems to have a strategy. That strategy not only includes playing the perpetual victim(which rabid rightwingers thrive on)but it includes wearing down everyone else, exhausting them. It’s really pretty effective.

In a clear thinking world Trump could not get elected to manage a lemonade stand. But that isn’t how the world works, or how people vote and Trump understands that.

He knows it’s a scam. He’s seen Rush Limbaugh pulling it off with faux outrage at this or that issue for years. Just know which buttons to push. He knew the racisim button was a big one and he went all in on that one. But he also knew that he had to make his base feel persecuted by, the press, the liberals, the FBI–anyone. He has found plenty of boogeymen to scare them with and make them angry. Their anger and fear is what motivates them.

Rush Limbaugh plays to that every day with incredible fury.

Trump does as well.

It works.

Incredibly, that same strategy projects those qualities of victimhood against the left. This is their real genius. It’s like the nazi idea of accusing your opponents of doing what you’re doing because it makes any argument against their own actions ridiculous.

I would not be shocked at all if the Republicans held off enough seats to keep control of congress.

My question is how much further right will this slide? This has been happening for years–this slide. Fox News and talk radio has speeded up the process. But here we are. I don’t know how big a step it is from here to suspending presidential elections, for example–to the the applause of the right. The courts are being filled every day with friendly rightwing judges. Congress is under control.

They don’t have the majority of the country right now–but a large segment of people are apathetic and will sleep through any massive change. The active group can be targeted after awhile in many ways until they become too exhausted and too scared to speak out. The media can be consolidated and more of a mouthpiece for the “kings” propaganda. And dissenters in the media can easily be punished.

I never thought I’d write anything like this five years ago. It seems just crazy.

Not so, anymore.

"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away. " Philip K. Dick

June 21, 2018 at 7:53 am #87518

wv
Participant

June 21, 2018 at 8:05 am #87519

wv
Participant

PA Ram wrote:

I used to think Trump was just a stupid oaf who appealed to a certain block of ignorant voters. And Trump is in many ways a stupid oaf. But he does understand his base. He gets that. He knows who he’s playing to. And he seems to have a strategy. .

================

Yeah, he is a policy-idiot, but he’s far from a ‘ratings’ idiot.

He (with Bannon’s help) is a master at Politics-as-Pro-Wrestling. His Apprentice show got top ratings. Thats what politics is to him. He’s like a pro-wrestling show that gets a forty-percent share of the tv-watching-public. He knows his audience, indeed.

And it only works because the SYSTEM has dummed down a great percentage of the amerikan population. And by dummed-down i dont mean anything insulting. The system also dummed-down the college-educated-professional class in a different way. Its just as dum to be a Hillery-ite. Ya know.

The system brought the public Trump vs Hillary.

We iz living in a modern corporate dystopia. There’s still a progressive tribe out there in the desert but its not a large group.

w
v

June 21, 2018 at 10:14 am #87524

nittany ram
Moderator

I have to say how much I appreciate and admire zooey’s posts on Facebook concerning these issues.

To use the parlance of today’s generation, he is “totes killing it”.

June 21, 2018 at 2:20 pm #87530

Zooey
Moderator

Well, you know, it’s BOGEYMEN, not BOOGIEMEN. I mean…they’re not dancers.

Other than that, I agree with everything Zooey said.

June 21, 2018 at 2:45 pm #87531

Zooey
Moderator

wv wrote:

Colbert bit

He has it wrong, and I assume he was just reacting before anyone had time to actually look at what Trump did. All Trump did with his EO is include a couple of steps, a couple of forms to fill out, and continuing with the same policy. It’s going to continue.

June 21, 2018 at 2:48 pm #87532
Zooey
Moderator
PA Ram wrote:

I used to think Trump was just a stupid oaf who appealed to a certain block of ignorant voters. And Trump is in many ways a stupid oaf. But he does understand his base. He gets that. He knows who he’s playing to. And he seems to have a strategy. That strategy not only includes playing the perpetual victim(which rabid rightwingers thrive on)but it includes wearing down everyone else, exhausting them. It’s really pretty effective.

He knows it’s a scam.

I don’t think he does.

I think that Stephen Miller and Steven Bannon know that. I think Trump is a tool. He is the perfect tool. He is personally racist, and completely stupid and vain. All Miller and Bannon have to do is present ideas to him while appealing to his vanity.

So what I mean is…Trump doesn’t have a strategy. Miller and Bannon do. Trump is an idiot. He has no sense of the past, and no strategy for the future. He acts on impulse. That is what narcissists do. That’s why he “lies” all the time. He doesn’t “lie” in the traditional sense i.e. saying something that is knowingly untrue. He says whatever is convenient for his world view IN THE MOMENT. It doesn’t matter if he said something completely contradictory 5 minutes earlier. He believed THAT when he said it. I live with a narcissist. I am telling you. They don’t have a strategy. They are simply completely self-serving moment-by-moment.
- This reply was modified 6 years, 6 months ago by Zooey.
June 21, 2018 at 3:28 pm #87534

Zooey
Moderator

Also…I just want to add at this point…we don’t even know who these people are or why they are here, and the government doesn’t want us to know.

It would appear that many of these people are not coming here to work, anyway. They are not coming here to steal jobs, or get welfare illegally, or any of that shit.

Many of them appear to be from El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala, and are coming because they are scared shitless to stay where they are with people getting killed, and houses burned, and all that stuff. You know…standard issue CIA bullshit. They are coming for asylum. Which is not only legal to do (at least file a petition for asylum), it is mandatory according to our own laws that we accept asylum-seekers (I do not know the criteria for acceptance, or if there are quotas. As I said above, I don’t consider the impact of these immigrants to be significant enough on our country to even spend time on the issue. I’m only interested now because I hate human rights abuses more than anything else in the world).

In any event, what I mean to say is that whatever one may conclude about illegal immigration, this appears to be a substantially different issue anyway.

June 22, 2018 at 9:13 pm #87570

zn
Moderator

June 23, 2018 at 7:29 pm #87597

zn
Moderator

Melania’s jacket is a pristine example of how an authoritarian government operates to delegitimize the press. Please don’t be fooled. This is 100% bait. It’s an effective strategy to get the media to criticize her wardrobe so that the government can criticize the media for criticizing her wardrobe and delegitimize us as fake news. Shortly after journalists started reporting on the jacket, FLOTUS’ director of communications tweeted a statement criticizing the media for not focusing on the children (even creating a hashtag for the jacket!), when the media is the VERY REASON we found out about the harrowing human rights abuses happening at the border in the first place. Also remember that these abuses were leveled by an administration who repeatedly lied about them with several senior officials denying they happened until the media collected irrefutable evidence that they did. Whatever rules of political discourse used to apply no longer do with this government. Be critical! Most importantly don’t underestimate this regime. Calling this administration dumb is dumb. We made that mistake in 2016. Let’s not make that mistake again. And no hate to the reporters who reported on this. It’s a trap for a reason.

A post shared by Liz Plank (@feministabulous) on Jun 21, 2018 at 2:18pm PDT

June 24, 2018 at 2:58 pm #87613

Cal
Participant

PA Ram wrote:

I would not be shocked at all if the Republicans held off enough seats to keep control of congress.

My question is how much further right will this slide? This has been happening for years–this slide. Fox News and talk radio has speeded up the process. But here we are. I don’t know how big a step it is from here to suspending presidential elections, for example–to the the applause of the right. The courts are being filled every day with friendly rightwing judges. Congress is under control.

They don’t have the majority of the country right now–but a large segment of people are apathetic and will sleep through any massive change. The active group can be targeted after awhile in many ways until they become too exhausted and too scared to speak out. The media can be consolidated and more of a mouthpiece for the “kings” propaganda. And dissenters in the media can easily be punished.

I never thought I’d write anything like this five years ago. It seems just crazy.

Not so, anymore.

Maybe Republicans will hold on, but Trump is so unpopular I hope people will show up just to show their displeasure with the moron.

This immigration mess won’t help Trump. Sure, the 30% of the population who support him might be riled up but he’s looked like a fool.

He whined (and lied) about Democrats creating the problem that led to children being taken from parents. Then, he reversed course with the Executive Order. That looks like a massive failure to me.

This is already on top of the DACA problem that Trump created and has refused to solve. Protecting DACA immmigrants is massively popular from what I’ve seen.

Most Americans just want to see government solve this without resorting to appallingly cruel solutions.

If republicans can’t even pass legislation to attempt to solve this, the immigration issue won’t help them in the midterms. The 30 seconds of talking heads (who have been predicting Trump’s demise for 2 and a half years) that I heard made it seem doubtful that the Reps will get their shit together to do something.

We’ll see.

Trump seems like he’s floundering to me. The North Korea trip, which should have been a big win for Trump, turned into a weird spectacle with Trump’s empty praise for Kim.

Hopefully, the Mueller investigation will continue to build momentum and put pressure on Trump.

Right now I am ready for the fall elections and excited when I look at the numbers and prospects for a Democratic HoR.

Check out this graphic/story for the prospects of a blue wave in the fall: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/26/us/elections/house-races-midterms.html

Democrats in Congress probably won’t solve anything, but at least they will make Trump squirm even more.

June 24, 2018 at 8:11 pm #87618

wv
Participant

Cal wrote:

<

Trump seems like he’s floundering to me..

=================

I dunno, last time i checked his numbers were up.

I also think anytime the focus is on immigration, trump and the reps win. Even if he goes too far like with the family separation thing, i still think overall, after the initial storm ebbs, the reps win as long as the debate is about immigration. Just a gut feeling.

I dont think the Dems have any single issue that compares to the Rep-Immigration issue. Though universal-health-care might be in the ballpark.

ratings:https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

w
v

June 25, 2018 at 2:55 pm #87637

Zooey
Moderator

I think Immigration is a winning issue for Trump because I think it will energize his base more than it will energize the “blue” base.

And here is where I believe we are in this country. I think we are at a Crossroad. Probably the biggest Crossroad since the Civil War, but certainly the biggest Crossroad since the Civil Rights Act. I think that the pundits got it all wrong when they said Trump was appealing to blue collar folks who lost their union jobs, although there is some truth to that. I think the issue that we are actually fighting over is the picture of what America is.

Demographics are changing in this country. Whites are becoming a smaller percentage of the country, and Christians are becoming a smaller percentage of the country. That is the trend.

The people who love the idea of America as God’s Favorite Country, and a country founded on enlightened principles (insert whatever subjective vision of enlightened you want here, even if it contradicts history), a country of do-it-yourselfers who persevered against all odds to tame the wilderness and innovate itself without cumbersome government, a star-spangled awesome fireworks display of WHITE European descendants…those people are pitted against a pluralistic America, one that includes the Chinese New Year parades on equal footing with hotdogs at the 4th of July picnic, an America that believes the “justice for all” portion of the Pledge include LGBQT, Muslims, blacks, and god-knows-what-else, and which is simply willing to let Mayberry go away as a defining vision of America. That is what I think we are fighting about at its core.

Trump is willing to destroy the constitution (and the entire world alliance) in order to preserve the former, and the Ayn Randian Kochs, Mercers, and Cato Institute types are happy to slipstream his ass because he’s now the lead blocker for a breakaway run for absolute power.

But at its core, this is a Civil War over America’s Identity. That is the key issue. And Trump supporters right now are willing to have everything taken away from them if it means that the multi-culturalists don’t win. So Immigration is Trump’s strongest play with those people, and I believe he has the upper hand in that debate in the sense that I think more of his base will come out in response to that issue than the multi-culturalist’s base, as I said earlier.

A couple of things work against Trump and the GOP, though. One is that a lot of “swing voters” are going to be put off by the WAY he is going about this, and the way he is going about everything, basically. He is going to fire up the Party Uber Alles types, but alienate the swingers. That’s one thing against him. The other thing is that Mueller hangs over him like Damocles’ sword. Although Mueller has been about as off-the-record as possible, it was said that he wants to conclude his investigation sooner rather than later because he doesn’t want it to come out and influence the election before people have had proper time to process the report.

No matter what is going on right now at the border, and in the courts, and in the Red Hen, the Mueller Report is going to blow all of that away and completely redefined the midterm elections. And there is Stormy Daniels’ lawsuit. That stuff is going to make the difference in the end as to who votes, and how they vote.

June 25, 2018 at 4:31 pm #87639

wv
Participant

Zooey wrote:

I think Immigration is a winning issue for Trump because I think it will energize his base more than it will energize the “blue” base.

And here is where I believe we are in this country. I think we are at a Crossroad. Probably the biggest Crossroad since the Civil War, but certainly the biggest Crossroad since the Civil Rights Act. I think that the pundits got it all wrong when they said Trump was appealing to blue collar folks who lost their union jobs, although there is some truth to that. I think the issue that we are actually fighting over is the picture of what America is.

Demographics are changing in this country. Whites are becoming a smaller percentage of the country, and Christians are becoming a smaller percentage of the country. That is the trend.

The people who love the idea of America as God’s Favorite Country, and a country founded on enlightened principles (insert whatever subjective vision of enlightened you want here, even if it contradicts history), a country of do-it-yourselfers who persevered against all odds to tame the wilderness and innovate itself without cumbersome government, a star-spangled awesome fireworks display of WHITE European descendants…those people are pitted against a pluralistic America, one that includes the Chinese New Year parades on equal footing with hotdogs at the 4th of July picnic, an America that believes the “justice for all” portion of the Pledge include LGBQT, Muslims, blacks, and god-knows-what-else, and which is simply willing to let Mayberry go away as a defining vision of America. That is what I think we are fighting about at its core.

Trump is willing to destroy the constitution (and the entire world alliance) in order to preserve the former, and the Ayn Randian Kochs, Mercers, and Cato Institute types are happy to slipstream his ass because he’s now the lead blocker for a breakaway run for absolute power.

But at its core, this is a Civil War over America’s Identity. That is the key issue. And Trump supporters right now are willing to have everything taken away from them if it means that the multi-culturalists don’t win. So Immigration is Trump’s strongest play with those people, and I believe he has the upper hand in that debate in the sense that I think more of his base will come out in response to that issue than the multi-culturalist’s base, as I said earlier.

A couple of things work against Trump and the GOP, though. One is that a lot of “swing voters” are going to be put off by the WAY he is going about this, and the way he is going about everything, basically. He is going to fire up the Party Uber Alles types, but alienate the swingers. That’s one thing against him. The other thing is that Mueller hangs over him like Damocles’ sword. Although Mueller has been about as off-the-record as possible, it was said that he wants to conclude his investigation sooner rather than later because he doesn’t want it to come out and influence the election before people have had proper time to process the report.

No matter what is going on right now at the border, and in the courts, and in the Red Hen, the Mueller Report is going to blow all of that away and completely redefined the midterm elections. And there is Stormy Daniels’ lawsuit. That stuff is going to make the difference in the end as to who votes, and how they vote.

===========================

Well, I dont know. There are so many factions on the right, and factions in the center and factions on the ‘left’, and progressives of various kinds — that i dont know how to articulate a grand-narrative about what any of this means.

Everyday i try to put together some sort of story or narrative, and none of them quite fits. Or all of them seem partly-true.

So, i dunno.

All i see at the moment is a great big, red-white-and-blue Salvadore Dali painting.

And i dont like Dali. Never have.

…PS. I got that “Adults in the Room” book u were posting about. Its damn good, so far.

PPS. The Immigration thing. I know in my gut the immigration issue is an ultra-powerful one for trump because (1) His smart-evil advisors have all said so, and (2) In my OWN progressive, far-leftist heart that immigration issue pulls even ME towards the dark side. That issue is like Sauron’s Ring. It poisons people. I mean, I have this deep-gut-instinct that sez “hell yes, we have too many people now, we dont need more…” Thats inside ME. I have to fight that INSTINCT with reason. Which of course takes mental-effort. So if the issue does that to a leftist like ME….

w
v

June 27, 2018 at 9:38 am #87675

zn
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