Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Rams Huddle › Is this the year of the qb? Is Wilson a top 4 qb?
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January 23, 2015 at 8:54 pm #17257wvParticipant
High-caliber football discussion is not about “fun.”
It’s a life or death struggle to see who is right, and who in contrast must be consigned to the dustbinVermeil was a Figurehead.
w
vJanuary 23, 2015 at 8:55 pm #17258January 23, 2015 at 11:31 pm #17264wvParticipantJanuary 23, 2015 at 11:41 pm #17267znModeratorw
vWilson better than young Brady
Why Russell Wilson looks like a better version of the early Tom BradyBy Scott Kacsmar
Tom Brady and Russell WilsonGetty Images, AP ImagesTom Brady and Russell Wilson are both trying to add to their legacies in Super Bowl XLIX.
There was a time when Tom Brady’s statistics were indistinguishable from the likes of Marc Bulger and Trent Green, let alone Peyton Manning and Brett Favre. This was years before an MVP season with 50 touchdown passes. If you saw an accolade for Brady back then, it was probably related to the Patriots winning games, independent of his performance.
New England carved out a dynasty built on defense, timely special teams and gutting out close wins against teams deemed to have more talent. Before shifting gears to an offense-heavy approach in 2007, the Patriots’ unparalleled success in close games established a reputation for Brady as the most “clutch” quarterback in the league.
Fast-forward to the present day, and the Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson have the chance to sail the same waters the Patriots did as the last team to repeat as Super Bowl champion. Every decade has had a different dynasty in the NFL, so it is only fitting that Super Bowl XLIX features the Seahawks trying to take down the old guard that basically wrote the blueprint for them.
Wilson is an odd character in the sense that he actually desires moments such as overtime. He is one of the very few quarterbacks who talks about being clutch as a goal and as part of being a really good quarterback. Before last postseason started, Wilson relayed that point about his next opponent. “You think about the Tom Bradys of the world, and that’s what makes him one of the best quarterbacks of all time, just because he’s been clutch in the playoffs.”
While that may sound naive, those close playoff wins were actually the foundation for Brady’s rise to stardom. Wilson is headed down a Brady-like path, but if we analyze the other parts of his game, Wilson actually looks like a better version of a young Brady.
Let’s take a deeper look at why.
Following the early Tom Brady blueprint
Two of the most common traits in dynasties are a young quarterback and a large amount of talent procured in a short period of time. Having the quarterback play on his smaller rookie salary is a major luxury in building the rest of the roster, which the 2001-04 Patriots and current Seahawks have enjoyed in the salary-cap era. Seattle has copied a few more ideas from the Patriots.
Start with head coaches like Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll who were seeking a second (or in Carroll’s case third) shot at glory in this league. Enter the quarterback who passed up a pro baseball career after some success in a Big Ten football program, only to wait his turn on draft day.
January 24, 2015 at 12:55 am #17270waterfieldParticipantMontana smart? From what I’ve heard and read he was not the brightest bulb in the room. However, what he did have was the eyesight of a bird of prey ! He could literally see the entire field at the snap of the ball -and clearly. One of the greatest assets a qb can have is extremely high level eyesight. I think that is a crucial element that made Montana “great”.
January 24, 2015 at 8:29 am #17277wvParticipantMontana smart? From what I’ve heard and read he was not the brightest bulb in the room. However, what he did have was the eyesight of a bird of prey ! He could literally see the entire field at the snap of the ball -and clearly. One of the greatest assets a qb can have is extremely high level eyesight. I think that is a crucial element that made Montana “great”.
I’ve read that “not the brightest bulb” stuff about Montana, but I’ve also read that
about Aikman, Marino, Ferragamo, Kilmer, Nittany etc. I dont pay much attention to that stuff.
I mean football-smart is one kind of ‘smart’. There’s a gazillion kinds of ‘smarts.’ Thats
why i have issues with IQ tests. There are so many kinds of ‘smart’ that arent tested
on those things….blah blah blah.Seemed to me, Montana had everything cept the big Arm.
He also had a Genius coach. Like Brady/Belichick.
I dont think the value of having a great coach
can be under-estimated.w
v- This reply was modified 9 years, 9 months ago by wv.
January 24, 2015 at 10:53 am #17283InvaderRamModeratorintelligence to me is the ability to process information. montana’s ability to process information on a football field. the playbook and all the moving parts on the field in a matter of seconds in order to make a decision shows a lot of intelligence.
January 24, 2015 at 11:10 am #17284znModeratorYeah, I have my share of friends who ain’t candidates for scholarships to Cambridge, but are spooky gifted smart in an area or 2, like let’s say electronics. I believe there’s something like “football smart.”
I don’t know what that would be if there weren’t football.
Maybe, in classical times, they would be great archers or something. Or great hunters. Or lacrosse champions.
January 24, 2015 at 11:23 am #1728621DogParticipantYeah, I have my share of friends who ain’t candidates for scholarships to Cambridge, but are spooky gifted smart in an area or 2, like let’s say electronics. I believe there’s something like “football smart.”
I liken it to “street smarts” or thinking on your feet which I value a lot more than a 4.0 GPA.
January 24, 2015 at 1:07 pm #17294wvParticipantYeah, I have my share of friends who ain’t candidates for scholarships to Cambridge, but are spooky gifted smart in an area or 2, like let’s say electronics. I believe there’s something like “football smart.”
I liken it to “street smarts” or thinking on your feet which I value a lot more than a 4.0 GPA.
I personally dont have street smarts,
but i have tree smarts. Like i can just
look at a Christmas tree and i can virtually
read its mind. I’m uncanny that way.But do they ever test that kind of thing
on IQ-tests ? No. They do not.I also, have wiffle-ball-smarts. I
am probably the best wiffle-ball player
in the country. Does Peter King ever
come to interview me? No. He does not.Lots of different intelligences
out there. I suspect Ag is a
scalloped-potato-genius, btw.
Sdram is a bar-b-Q genius.w
vJanuary 25, 2015 at 10:00 pm #17381wvParticipantDunno if this has been posted:
http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/101699/no-one-gets-more-help-than-russell-wilson“…Seattle’s defense has a knack for playing its best when Wilson and the offense are at their worst. Since the start of 2012, Wilson has had 22 games with a QBR below 50, including 15 wins. In those games, Seattle has held its opponents to an average QBR of 34.0 and has had a per-game defensive efficiency of +7.3. In Wilson’s games with an above-average QBR, the Seahawks have allowed a 45.7 average QBR and have had a +2.4 defensive efficiency rating.
No one can take away Wilson’s NFL-leading 42 wins since the start of the 2012 season, the most by any player in his first three seasons (including playoffs) in the Super Bowl era. But much of his success has been a result of his teammates; he has had the benefit of playing with the most dominant defense in the NFL and the league’s leading rusher, Marshawn Lynch, in the past three years.
… see link…”w
v- This reply was modified 9 years, 9 months ago by wv.
January 25, 2015 at 10:31 pm #17384znModeratorDunno if this has been posted:
http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/101699/no-one-gets-more-help-than-russell-wilson“…Seattle’s defense has a knack for playing its best when Wilson and the offense are at their worst. Since the start of 2012, Wilson has had 22 games with a QBR below 50, including 15 wins. In those games, Seattle has held its opponents to an average QBR of 34.0 and has had a per-game defensive efficiency of +7.3. In Wilson’s games with an above-average QBR, the Seahawks have allowed a 45.7 average QBR and have had a +2.4 defensive efficiency rating.
No one can take away Wilson’s NFL-leading 42 wins since the start of the 2012 season, the most by any player in his first three seasons (including playoffs) in the Super Bowl era. But much of his success has been a result of his teammates; he has had the benefit of playing with the most dominant defense in the NFL and the league’s leading rusher, Marshawn Lynch, in the past three years.
… see link…”w
vNo one gets more help than Russell Wilson
By Hank Gargiulo and Sharon Katz, ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/101699/no-one-gets-more-help-than-russell-wilson
The Seattle Seahawks advanced to the Super Bowl in one of the most improbable comebacks in playoff history. Russell Wilson completed his final five passes, including a game-winning 35-yard touchdown in overtime to Jermaine Kearse.
Before the final five minutes and overtime, however, Wilson was abysmal. He threw a career-high four interceptions and became the second player in the Super Bowl era to win a postseason game with that many picks. Through three quarters, Wilson had a 0.2 Total QBR, and although he increased that number to 13.6 with his late-game heroics, Wilson finished the game with the lowest Total QBR in a postseason win since 2006.
This is not the first time that Seattle has won despite Wilson’s inefficiency. In fact, since 2012, Wilson’s first year in the league, the Seahawks have 15 wins in which their quarterback posted a below-average Total QBR, five more than any other team in the NFL. That includes both of Seattle’s NFC Championship wins during that time.
How unlikely is Seattle’s three-year run given Wilson’s QBR?
Expected wins for quarterback
In 2011, Alok Pattani, a senior analytics specialist in ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, outlined a concept of expected wins for a quarterback based on his QBR in a game. The basic premise is that a player’s QBR in game can be interpreted as the expected win percentage for the team given that level of QB play. So a team whose starting quarterback has a QBR of 20 in a game would be expected to win about 20 percent of the time; a player with a QBR of 80 should win about 80 percent of the time, on average.Wilson’s 13.6 QBR against the Packers equates to .136 expected wins, meaning the Seahawks won .864 more games than expected, given their quarterback play. By aggregating the difference between a player’s actual wins and expected wins over a given period of time, we can determine which quarterbacks are winning or losing more than expected based on their play alone.
Since Wilson entered the league, he has a 63.7 Total QBR in the regular season and playoffs, which ranks eighth among 31 qualified quarterbacks. Wilson deserves credit for his above-average QBR during that time, but does that equate to a 42-13 (.764 win percentage) career record?
Based on Wilson’s game-level QBRs in the last three seasons, he has almost 10 more wins than expected. No other player has six more wins than expected during that time.
Largest difference, wins and expected wins, last three seasons (including playoffs)
Expected wins Actual wins Diff
Russell Wilson 32.4 42* +9.6
Andy Dalton 25.7 31 +5.3
Andrew Luck 31.8 36 +4.2
Alex Smith 21.3 25 +3.7
Tom Brady 36.7 40 +3.3
*Most in the NFL
Expanding the data set back to 2006, no quarterback has been aided more by his teammates over a three-year span than Wilson. Joe Flacco from 2010 to 2012 was the next closest in terms of added wins (8.4) during any three-year period.So how have Wilson and the Seahawks been able to defy the odds? One word: defense.
In the last three seasons, the Seahawks have contributed 4.4 points per game to their net scoring margin on defense, by far the best defensive efficiency in the NFL. Only Alex Smith (2.1) and Andy Dalton (2.1) have had defenses that contributed more than two expected points per game in their starts during that time.
Seattle’s defense has a knack for playing its best when Wilson and the offense are at their worst. Since the start of 2012, Wilson has had 22 games with a QBR below 50, including 15 wins. In those games, Seattle has held its opponents to an average QBR of 34.0 and has had a per-game defensive efficiency of +7.3. In Wilson’s games with an above-average QBR, the Seahawks have allowed a 45.7 average QBR and have had a +2.4 defensive efficiency rating.
No one can take away Wilson’s NFL-leading 42 wins since the start of the 2012 season, the most by any player in his first three seasons (including playoffs) in the Super Bowl era. But much of his success has been a result of his teammates; he has had the benefit of playing with the most dominant defense in the NFL and the league’s leading rusher, Marshawn Lynch, in the past three years.
Should the Seahawks beat the Patriots, Wilson could become the youngest player in NFL history to win multiple Super Bowls. As he is on the verge of making history, remember, no other quarterback has received more help from his teammates over the last three years than Wilson.
So the Seahawks’ current run of success hasn’t come about despite him, but it hasn’t come about solely because of him either.
January 26, 2015 at 7:20 pm #17445wvParticipantten types of qb
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-10-types-of-nfl-quarterbacks/w
vJanuary 28, 2015 at 2:43 am #17567znModeratorten types of qb
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-10-types-of-nfl-quarterbacks/
w
vThat’s an interesting article.
February 4, 2015 at 11:17 pm #17945znModeratorThe question comes up again.
He was great at the end, in the clutch, against GB.
But he wasn’t the difference against N.E.
I think for sure he’s a top 10 qb, but top 4?
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