Hurricane Irma … & Jose … & Katia

Mackeyser wrote:

IRMA’S A CAT 5!!!

Hurricane Irma threatens the United States with power rarely seen
Florida residents should prepare for the worst.

http://www.popsci.com/hurricane-irma-united-states?src=SOC&dom=fb

One of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean will soon slam into the Antilles before setting its sights on the continental United States. Hurricane Irma grew into a scale-topping category five storm on Tuesday, making it the second major hurricane to threaten land in the past two weeks. It’s set to bring potentially catastrophic damage to parts of the Lesser Antilles (including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands) on Wednesday, steadily skirting past Hispaniola and Cuba until it approaches Florida this weekend as a large and intense hurricane.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying through the storm on Tuesday afternoon found 185 MPH winds in the hurricane’s northern eyewall, which is approaching the upper limit for how strong a tropical cyclone can get in this kind of environment. Irma is only the fourth storm in the recorded history of Atlantic hurricanes to grow this strong, and the National Hurricane Center notes that it’s the strongest ever seen outside of the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea.
The hurricane is about as close as you can get to perfection—from a meteorological point of view. The eye is huge and mostly clear. The storm is almost perfectly symmetrical and has that “buzzsaw” appearance on satellite imagery, an ominous look resulting from a combination of rain bands and cirrus clouds forming as the storm vents air high into the atmosphere. There’s very little along the forecast track that could weaken the storm, aside from interaction with land and natural changes in the hurricane’s internal structure. Hurricane Irma is a powerhouse, and an extreme rarity in this part of the world.

Irma will approach Florida this weekend, but not before wreaking havoc on the islands that border the Caribbean Sea. The eye will move over or very close to Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Martin, and the British Virgin Islands on Wednesday (if the storm stays on its current track).
Islands caught in the northwestern part of Irma’s eyewall will experience the strongest winds, and a storm surge—sea water pushed inland by a hurricane’s strong winds—deep enough to completely inundate buildings on the coast. The U.S. territories of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will experience severe impacts from this storm on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center expects the two island territories to see violent winds and up to a foot of rain as the eye of the storm moves just to their north. Wind damage is likely to hit trees, power lines, and buildings, especially those with lower construction quality. Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels is possible in the U.S. Virgin Islands (except for St. Croix), and a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet could occur on Puerto Rico’s northern coast. A storm surge is the sea water pushed inland by a hurricane’s strong winds. Islands caught in the northwestern part of Irma’s eyewall will experience the strongest winds and a storm surge that might be deep enough to completely inundate some buildings on the coast.
A storm surge isn’t the only flooding that’s possible: tropical cyclones that pass over the Antilles are notorious for unleashing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides due to hilly terrain. More people die due to flooding than from any other hazard during such storms.
But it’s the end of that five-day forecast that’s churning so many stomachs here on the east coast. Forecasters currently expect a vigorous hurricane to approach the southern tip of Florida by Sunday. Most weather models have the storm making a sharp northerly turn by the end of the weekend, and based on current forecasts, this would take the storm over the entire length of Florida.
Hurricanes naturally tend to move in a northerly direction, but a strong ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean, known as the Bermuda High, is currently steering the hurricane toward the northwest. An region of low pressure approaching over the eastern United States will help weaken that high, causing Irma to abruptly change direction and follow its own path. Exactly when this sudden change in track occurs—along with small wobbles in its track over the next couple of days—will be critical in determining who sees the worst of Irma’s impacts here in the United States. An unexpected jog to the left or right of its current motion could have huge implications for the storm’s future.
With at least five days until Irma hits the United States, we’re too far away from a potential landfall to gauge its track with laser-like precision. It’s possible the storm will just barely miss land. But Irma could also inflict a disaster not seen since Hurricane Andrew came ashore in 1992. It’s going to be a long week of nervously watching and waiting—and reloading each run of the weather models to see what they have to say. Hurricane Hunter aircraft will fly through the storm almost continuously over the next week, and The National Hurricane Center will issue updates on Hurricane Irma every six hours or as they’re urgently needed.
The best thing to do is to prepare for the storm, whether you live on the coast or 100 miles inland. Officials in the Florida Keys have already issued a mandatory evacuation, as there’s only one road back to the mainland and hurricane shelters are closed when an approaching hurricane is a category three or stronger.
As we saw with Hurricane Harvey a few weeks ago, it doesn’t take a direct hit to cause major problems, and not just coastal residents are at risk. Inland flooding is always a threat to life and property. Winds could topple trees and power lines, especially in areas where the ground is wet and soft from recent rains. Power outages are inconvenient at best, but can seriously disrupt your life at worst. Communities that see the worst conditions could be uninhabitable for weeks or even months, should the worst-case scenario plays out. Don’t panic, but do use the next five days wisely.

A friend of mine and his wife live in Puerto Rico. They were preparing for the storm and also they are involved with dog rescues. They rescue strays and abandoned ones and try to find them homes. Very good people. They were trying to give food and water to some strays at the beach yesterday even while preparing themselves for this storm. They were hoping that the strays would be able to find their way to the caves for safety. As I said–very good people and more concerned about these lost animals than themselves. I’m hoping the storm somehow spares them. I wish it would spare everyone, of course but it sounds like this will be very bad.

Evacuation in Florida could be a non-option unless you leave the state. That thing could run a straight line through the state.

I love the beach. I’d love to live at the beach. It’s times like this I’m glad I don’t.

I don’t know what the “best case” scenario is for this right now but I hope that somehow that loss of life is minimal. There’s going to be a lot of damage. That’s unavoidable.

US News Tropical Storm Jose Forms Right Behind Category 5 Hurricane Irma

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2291945-tropical-storm-jose-forms-right-behind-category-5-hurricane-irma/

On the heels of Hurricane Irma, which reached Category 5 strength on Tuesday morning, Sept. 5, Tropical Jose formed.

Tropical Storm Jose, the Atlantic 2017 season’s 10th named storm, has winds of 40 mph, and was moving west-northwest at 13 mph, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

It’s located some 1,500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the far-eastern Caribbean Sea.

“Jose,” the Center said, “should move toward the west or west-northwest for the next three to four days at a slightly faster rate of forward speed as it moves south of the deep-layer Azores-Bermuda high.”

“In about four to five days, Jose should turn toward the northwest and slow,” according to the NHC.

Hurricane Irma, meanwhile, is approaching the island of Antigua. V.C. Bird International Airport said it is shutting down Tuesday to seek protection from the powerful storm, The Associated Press reported. It said, “May God protect us all.”

Irma, said to have winds of 180 mph, is expected to pass north of Antigua and near Barbados on Tuesday night.

A hurricane warning is in effect for:

-Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis
-Saba, St. Eustatius and Sint Maarten
-Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
-British Virgin Islands
-U.S. Virgin Islands
-Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra

The storm may hit Florida, and it prompted Gov. Rick Scott to issue a state of emergency on Monday afternoon.

Scott wrote:

“Hurricane Irma is a major and life-threatening storm and Florida must be prepared. I have continued to be briefed by the Florida Division of Emergency Management on Hurricane Irma and current forecast models have Florida in Irma’s path—potentially impacting millions of Floridians. Today, given these forecasts and the intensity of this storm, I have declared a state of emergency for every county in Florida to make certain that state, federal and local governments are able to work together and make sure resources are dispersed to local communities as we get prepared for this storm.

In Florida, we always prepare for the worst and hope for the best and while the exact path of Irma is not absolutely known at this time, we cannot afford to not be prepared. This state of emergency allows our emergency management officials to act swiftly in the best interest of Floridians without the burden of bureaucracy or red tape.”

Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello warned residents, saying all decisions taken in the next few of hours could mean the difference between life and death.

States of emergency have been declared in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, AP reported.

Hurricane Irma threatens ‘to devastate the United States,’ FEMA chief says

http://abcnews.go.com/US/dangerous-winds-storm-surge-threaten-florida-hurricane-irma/story?id=49697542

South Florida is bracing for a major storm surge and powerful winds even as Hurricane Irma weakened to a Category 4 storm as it makes it way toward the U.S. mainland.

“Obviously Hurricane Irma continues to be a threat that is going to devastate the United States,” Brock Long, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator (FEMA), said at a press conference Friday morning. “We’re going to have a couple rough days.”

Irma was downgraded from a Category 5 to a Category 4 storm early Friday morning. As of 2 p.m. Eastern Time, the storm was moving 14 mph and located 380 miles southeast of Miami.

The National Weather Service cautioned that Irma is still “extremely dangerous,” with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, which are strong enough to uproot trees, bring down power poles and rip off the roofs and some exterior walls of well-built frame homes.

The National Weather Service issued its first hurricane warnings for Florida overnight, warning residents that “preparations to protect life should be rushed to completion.”

Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for barrier islands, coastal communities, low-lying areas and mobile homes across Florida, including the counties of Brevard, Broward, Collier, Indian River, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Palm Beach and St. John. ABC News estimates roughly 1.2 million Florida residents have been ordered to evacuate.

Meteorologists expect Irma will approach the Florida Keys and southern Florida late Saturday night and then make landfall near Miami as a strong Category 4 hurricane with winds near 140 to 145 mph sometime between 5 a.m. and 9 a.m. Eastern Time on Sunday. Overnight projections of Irma’s path showed less of a threat to the Carolinas as the monster storm appears likely to move directly up the middle of Florida and curve inland.

Meteorologists predict Irma will continue to weaken as the storm moves inland Sunday into Monday. Irma will approach Jacksonville on Monday around 8 a.m. Eastern Time with winds of about 75 mph, which would make it a dangerous Category 1 hurricane. Then, Irma should weaken rapidly to a tropical storm, depression or a remnant low later Monday as it moves across state lines into Georgia, then potentially Alabama and Tennessee on Tuesday into Wednesday, meteorologists say.

The worst of Irma’s winds and storm surge are projected to be near Marathon and Key Largo, but meteorologists say Miami and heavily populated southeastern Florida will still be on the strongest side of the storm.

Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe on Friday declared a state of emergency in anticipation of Irma’s potential impact.

“It is unfortunate that just as our nation has begun the process to repair the catastrophic damage from Hurricane Harvey, that we are faced with another extreme storm,” McAuliffe said in a statement. “However, if there is one lesson we can take from the tragic events that occurred in Texas, it is that we must redouble our preparation efforts.”

A storm-surge warning was in effect Friday morning for the Florida Keys and the Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice, with the National Weather Service saying there is “danger of life-threatening inundation from rising waters moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours.”

Moreover, heavy rains are forecast to drench northern Florida, Georgia and even possibly South Carolina and Tennessee by Tuesday. Rainfall accumulations in southeast Florida and the Florida Keys are expected to reach 10 to 15 inches, with totals up to 20 inches locally. Eastern Florida, up the coast to Georgia, is expected to receive 8 to 12 inches, according to the National Weather Service.

NWS Key West @NWSKeyWest
We cannot stress this enough, #Irma is extremely dangerous! The #StormSurge across the #FLkeys could be devastating! 5-10ft above ground!

Government personnel have been deployed from Alabama to North Carolina to prepare for Hurricane Irma. Florida alone should anticipate days-long power outages, FEMA said.

Turks and Caicos pummeled, Bahamas next

The Turks and Caicos islands were hit hard as Irma passed over the tiny archipelago in the Atlantic Ocean. A government spokesperson told ABC News the British overseas territory had sustained “catastrophic” damage.

The National Weather Service warned of a storm surge up to 20 feet on Turks and Caicos with 8 to 12 inches of rain for the low-lying islands through Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Bahamas began to experience the extent of Irma’s wrath Friday morning. The storm’s speed was expected to slow as the core of the hurricane passed between the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba.

According to The Associated Press, at least 20 people have died and thousands were left homeless as a result of Irma, the most powerful Atlantic storm in a decade, after it battered a string of Caribbean islands on Wednesday. At the time, Irma was a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph.

Long, the FEMA administrator, said at the press conference Friday that the agency’s primary goal is to “stabilize the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico” by restoring power, maintaining security and bringing in life-sustaining supplies.

Good to hear!