How do Fisher teams start? 2nd go-round

–

1. Fisher Oiler/Titans teams won their opener 10 out of 16 seasons.

2. Oddly, winning the opener is no guarantee they keep winning in the next 3 games. I am separating out the first 4 games here. Only 4 times out of 10 does winning the opener mean those teams then go above .500 in the next 3 games. It’s exactly like 2013. Winning the opener does not guarantee they then win more than 1 of the next 3.

3. To me this suggests something slightly different than the normal idea that he underprepares teams. This is completely subjective and based on a hunch I have and not on “data” per se. I don’t think Fisher under-prepares teams, I think he overestimates them…but THEN fixes things during the season. So he has a team ready for the opener, but not always ready for what then follows. Why not? If 2013 is any clue, it’s because he overestimates the personnel plus any formula he is using that won game 1. Then there’s a hard awakening, and the fixing (if it can be fixed.) Just thinking out loud on this one. “Hunching.”

4. In doing this I also glanced at the overall record. You know, this is not the record of a career .500 coach. Not exactly. It’s something different. I mean, yes, in terms of just averaging out the seasons into totals, it’s around .500, but if you look instead at the actual season by season topography, something different shows up. It looks to me like the record of a team that rises, then falls, rises, then falls. If I had to guess one reason for that, it’s personnel/injuries far more than any other factor. He develops his team then loses players. (That’s based on a vague memory of the history without real research.)

To color code this, redbold = losing or .500 seasons, bluebold = winning seasons.

There’s a pattern of rise, fall, rise, fall. That’s not the same as being .500 year in and year out.

2010 NFL Tennessee Titans 6 10
2009 NFL Tennessee Titans 8 8

1998 NFL Tennessee Oilers 8 8
1997 NFL Tennessee Oilers 8 8
1996 NFL Houston Oilers 8 8
1995 NFL Houston Oilers 7 9