Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Public House › Here is why I think Trump will win in 2020
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Billy_T.
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November 16, 2019 at 10:45 pm #108228
waterfieldParticipantI know this is anecdotal. I just came home from a dinner with more than one who I consider smart, intellectual, and generally really good people with empathy towards those who are less fortunate. I asked the husband of one couple -who I completely respect-what did he think of the firing of the ambassador. His response was “well I haven’t been watching any of this stuff but if she was against the President then she likely deserved to be fired”.
That’s it in a nutshell !!
November 17, 2019 at 11:08 am #108236
Billy_TParticipantW,
Don’t forget that Trump “won” with just 26% of the electorate. Clinton got 28%. They were the most disliked candidates in history.
Trump, as president, is even more disliked now than he was back then, and he no longer has a Clinton to run against. He’s the establishment now, and he has a record as president. That wasn’t the case before.
I think he got a huge number of votes from people who voted against Clinton, not for Trump. He no longer has that to fall back on, or Comey. It’s Trump now who’s under investigation, out in the open. His negatives are too high for him to win, if the election is on the up and up.
The only way he’ll win this time is to cheat more. Much more.
November 17, 2019 at 12:47 pm #108240
ZooeyModeratorTrump’s numbers have not dropped, though, Billy. He has not lost a significant number of supporters, as far as we can tell.
And it is unclear to me whether the strong dislike for Trump extends into more votes for the Democrat. Are those people who really, really, really dislike Trump new voters? Or the ones who voted for Hillary anyway? The polls show a close race right now, with Biden, Sanders, or Warren all beating Trump by a slim percentage. Just as polls had Clinton favored by a slim percentage.
I think if the Democrats run the wrong candidate, they stand a very good chance of losing again. And it appears to me that the Democrats have completely failed to see why they lost in 2016. If they put up another run-of-the-mill candidate, they may lose again. I think the difference is still going to be in the 3 to 5 million votes range.
As you know, Hillary won the popular vote by nearly 3 million.
Well…consider that California cast 4.3 million more votes for Hillary than for Trump. Throw out California, and Trump won the popular vote. (I swear, we have to do EVERYTHING for this ******* country). So…I’m not seeing a mighty swelling of the ranks in the Ass party.
November 17, 2019 at 1:10 pm #108245Billy_TParticipantLotsa good points, Zooey.
But I’d argue that Trump has lost some support. I think this showed up in the 2018 elections, and in several off-off-year elections this year, like Virginia’s, and the two recent gubernatorial elections in the South.
I agree that he hasn’t lost his base. They’ll stick with him to the bitter end. But suburban Republicans are defecting, and he needs them.
Yes, the Dems could blow this if they run another corporatist/centrist Dem, unless that particular candidate has charisma and “connects.” As mentioned before, I think most Americans vote on personal, emotional grounds, not policy or ideology. Which means an actual leftist could win if he or she has that special something. They’re already waaaay ahead on policy, etc. It’s the lack of having “it” that loses elections, far more than policy or ideology, IMO.
Anyway, our elections are essentially base elections. The team that gets out its base to a greater degree wins. HRC pretty much drove down her own base, especially POCs, and drove up Trump’s turnout. Logically, the candidate who can reverse that for the Dems will win.
In short, I think the election is the Dems’ to win or lose. Not Trump’s. Which is kinda what you were saying too, if I read your correctly.
;>)
November 17, 2019 at 2:25 pm #108251
nittany ramModeratorAnd it is unclear to me whether the strong dislike for Trump extends into more votes for the Democrat. Are those people who really, really, really dislike Trump new voters? Or the ones who voted for Hillary anyway? The polls show a close race right now, with Biden, Sanders, or Warren all beating Trump by a slim percentage. Just as polls had Clinton favored by a slim percentage.
Polls show Trump losing to Sanders and Warren, but as was pointed out to me on FB, those are national polls. They don’t necessarily reflect what will happen in the electoral college. I have no doubt whoever runs against Trump will win the popular vote, but the electoral vote is the issue, as it was in the last election.
November 17, 2019 at 2:33 pm #108253
wvParticipant….The polls show a close race right now, with Biden, Sanders, or Warren all beating Trump by a slim percentage. Just as polls had Clinton favored by a slim percentage…
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Just a little sidebar, fwiw — In the Taibbi/Rogan podcast I posted, Taibbi mentions that the MSM did indeed have some polls/info that the race would be much closer than the published-polls were showing. Taibbi said the MSM suppressed that info because they thought it might hurt Hillary’s chances.
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vNovember 17, 2019 at 3:57 pm #108260Billy_TParticipant….The polls show a close race right now, with Biden, Sanders, or Warren all beating Trump by a slim percentage. Just as polls had Clinton favored by a slim percentage…
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Just a little sidebar, fwiw — In the Taibbi/Rogan podcast I posted, Taibbi mentions that the MSM did indeed have some polls/info that the race would be much closer than the published-polls were showing. Taibbi said the MSM suppressed that info because they thought it might hurt Hillary’s chances.
w
vTaibbi’s conjecture strikes me as a mixed bag. On the one hand, if Dems had known the race was tighter than previously thought, it might bring out some Clinton voters who would have stayed home otherwise . . . thinking it was “already in the bag.”
On the other, a closer race could have rallied Trump supporters and gotten more to the polls.
Overall, a wash, I’m guessing.
And the MSM focused more on Clinton’s emails than on any other campaign story, in terms of time. If they had really wanted her to win, they wouldn’t have. They would have focused more on Trump’s crooked, mobbed up past, Trump U, Trump Charities, etc. That didn’t really start until after he took office, when it was too late to matter.
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