Gurley stuff from 10/17 to…

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  • #92469
    Avatar photozn
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    #92483
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    we could be right in the middle of something really special brewing for gurley. not just this season but for the next few years.

    just wondering to myself how everything unfolds.

    just one example is yards from scrimmage. he might be only the 13th player to get 2000 yards from scrimmage. i’m not quite sure of that. just something i read on the internet. i do know that there are 65 total seasons where that mark was achieved. he’ll join an even rarer group if he manages to get another one this season. and even rarer still because it will be back to back. and to produce that consistently over 32 games (31 in todd’s case) is nothing to scoff at.

    just pretty amazing i’d say.

    #92488
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    we could be right in the middle of something really special brewing for gurley. not just this season but for the next few years.

    just wondering to myself how everything unfolds.

    just one example is yards from scrimmage. he might be only the 13th player to get 2000 yards from scrimmage. i’m not quite sure of that. just something i read on the internet. i do know that there are 65 total seasons where that mark was achieved. he’ll join an even rarer group if he manages to get another one this season. and even rarer still because it will be back to back. and to produce that consistently over 32 games (31 in todd’s case) is nothing to scoff at.

    just pretty amazing i’d say.

    This guy is a good player. Man, the Rams have had their share of great RBs over the years. He is a delight to watch. He is like Marshall in a lot of ways. Good at running, receiving, and blocking. Leader. And…importantly…does not seem to take bad shots. Marshall always could kind of elude the tackler and avoid the blasting hits. Gurley is similar.

    They are different stylistically. I mean…if you could somehow run a series of highlights of the two guys while turning everything into silhouette so there are no uniform/stadium context clues…you could tell them apart. But…Value…Production…these guys are a lot alike. I think Faulk still has the advantage in wisdom, but remember Faulk came to the Rams entering his sixth season. Gurley has just entered his fourth.

    Boy…this is a good team, and fun to watch, and we are in a good moment in time.

    #92490
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    And…importantly…does not seem to take bad shots. Marshall always could kind of elude the tackler and avoid the blasting hits. Gurley is similar.

    I have a theory about that. Indulge me.

    He has great vision and balance, especially for his size, and the result is not that he jukes people or “Faulks” them but that he arrives where the defenders are presenting the least optimal target. And it’s not that glaringly obvious either. He doesn’t “elude” in the classic way we think of, but he shifts his body weight etc. just enough so that the defender is at a disadvantage. The point is, that’s “decided” before he gets to the defender. He sees the defender, adjusts a bit in motion, and the defender arrives with a bit less of a target. So you can’t seem to get a straight up direct hit on him. It’s like when I am chopping wood and I dont get the effect I want because I don’t hit it right. Well imagine the piece of wood actually moved 2 inches. Not jumped out of the way, or dodged like a cat–it just shifted because it saw the angle of my swing.

    He also sees things quickly and is very decisive (more than most) and has enough burst to go where they ain’t, when that option presents itself.

    #92492
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    I have a theory about that. Indulge me.

    That matches what I see.

    He isn’t “slippery,” or all Jittery, and that. He does what you just described.

    I think a lot of backs turn into the tackler to try to initiate the hit, or just Plow Through, and take it.

    Gurley takes the angles. He inches his way out of the reach of maximum impact.

    So I just totally disagree with you on that.

    #92493
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Gurley takes the angles. He inches his way out of the reach of maximum impact.

    Yeah he doesn’t have fast cut jitter in his body, though he is very athletic, so he does exactly what you say there. And you can watch an entire game of his and not notice it. OTOH if you look for it it’s very visible. It also means he doesn’t lose velocity. He does this thing we’re talking about at full speed.

    #92540
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    #92541
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from The Eight Best Players of the 2018 NFL Season So Far
    At this point in the schedule, the MVP race is far too close to call. So instead of trying to predict who’ll wind up taking home the hardware, we’re celebrating the players who have defined the first six weeks of the season.

    https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/10/18/17994272/best-nfl-players-2018-todd-gurley-drew-brees-adam-thielen-philip-rivers

    Todd Gurley, RB, Rams

    The Case: As I mentioned in Monday’s Starting 11, Gurley is on pace for 2,320 yards from scrimmage and 29 touchdowns. If he pulls that off, he’d be just the second player to do it since the merger (the other being LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006, the year he won the MVP award). For the second straight season, Gurley has been the most dangerous player on arguably the league’s best offense.

    Sean McVay has crafted an offensive identity centered around Gurley—he masks certain play designs, making them look identical to others. The play-action passes look like runs. The runs look like play-action passes.

    McVay’s scheme is completely unpredictable, and it only functions that way because Gurley can do everything you could ask of a running back. His skills as a receiver and dominance on screen passes ensure that when he’s in the game, any play on McVay’s call sheet is on the table.

    And the Rams have taken full advantage. Gurley faces eight or more rushers in the box on 10.08 percent of his carries, the seventh-lowest rate in the league. On the surface, that doesn’t make any sense. Why the hell would the league’s best running back face light boxes on nine out of every 10 runs?

    The answer is that the Rams use 11 personnel on nearly 93 percent of their running plays, and opponents are forced to respond with sub-package defenses. Then Gurley responds in kind by gashing them all game.

    Saying that McVay does all he can to accentuate Gurley’s talent isn’t meant to take anything away from what Gurley’s been doing this season. The only time a player should be dinged for the damage he does in a great system is when another player could come in and produce at the same level—which is certainly not the case with Gurley.

    There might be one other back in the league who could destroy defenses under McVay the way that Gurley has, but that’s it. We’ve all seen the wrong coaching staff steal the joy of peak Todd Gurley by slamming him into the line on every play. Let’s all just be thankful McVay got to him when he did, because he’s turned Gurley into the MVP frontrunner.

    The Clip:

    Former NFL offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz did a great job of breaking down this concept on Twitter earlier this week(see below). When the Rams use jet motion, it holds the opposing linebackers just long enough for L.A.’s linemen to execute blocks that wouldn’t be possible with a normal inside zone run. With Gurley carrying the ball and the big boys picking off players at the second level, just say goodnight.

    #92542
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk is impressed with Todd Gurley’s most valuable contributions to Rams offense

    SAM FARMER

    http://www.latimes.com/sports/nfl/la-sp-rams-sidebar-20181014-story.html

    Todd Gurley was a devastating force against Denver on Sunday, running for 208 yards.

    It was the first 200-yard rushing game for a Rams player since Marshall Faulk rolled up 202 for the St. Louis Rams against Carolina in 2001.

    Reached by phone Sunday night, Faulk said Gurley is unquestionably playing like the NFL’s most valuable player at this point.

    “There’s no doubt,” said Faulk, who won that award in 2000. “I know they love giving it to quarterbacks, and unless a running back does something that’s unbelievable that hasn’t been done before, it’s hard to get it from a quarterback.

    “But, man … I think the second half of the season is going to be even better for him.”

    Faulk, enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2011, was regarded as the quintessential triple threat, someone who could not only run the ball, but also catch passes out of the backfield, and be a reliable blocker in pass protection. He sees the same in Gurley.

    “The way that they use him, he’s going to last forever,” Faulk said. “He does a really good job of not just getting the tough yards, but also playing smart and not taking a lot of hits. When they need him to hit it up in there, he gets the tough yards. When he gets outside, he takes care of himself. And in the passing game, not just catching the ball but pass blocking as well.

    “There was a huge play, and he stepped up in the middle — bam — cut a guy, which allowed Jared [Goff] to step up in the pocket and deliver a ball down the field. When you’re a triple threat like that, teams really don’t know what to do.”

    Gurley, who scored twice Sunday, leads the NFL will 11 touchdowns from scrimmage and is the fifth player with at least 11 offensive touchdowns in his team’s first six games of the season, joining Shaun Alexander (12 in 2005), Emmitt Smith (11 in 1995), LaDainian Tomlinson (11 in 2005), and Priest Holmes (11 in both 2002 and ’04).

    Faulk said the offensive creativity of Rams coach Sean McVay keeps Gurley mentally stimulated and engaged.

    “It’s always fun when you look in the playbook and it’s like, ‘OK, what’s this play like? What are we going to do here?’ ” Faulk said. “A lot of the time, it’s the same plays, but it’s how you dress them up, and what you do to make it fun. I love it that Sean is making it fun for guys.

    “I always prided myself on, ‘I’m going to out-think you.’ And I can see Todd’s game mentally understanding not just what he has to do in the run game and the pass game, but in pass protection, helping his guys, knowing when to chip, knowing when to knock a guy back, just understanding the little nuances.”

    So far, those little nuances are translating into big yards.

    • This reply was modified 6 years, 1 month ago by Avatar photozn.
    #92548
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    According to the numbers from the pure stats post above, Gurley has run 129 times and 123 are with Goff under center.

    Turn that around and there’s also this:

    Over the last three weeks, the Los Angeles Rams have thrown 39 passes from under center, all of which came off play action. In six games this year, they have only thrown seven straight dropback passes from under center, with six of them coming in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Chargers

    That’s from the October 17 article posted here: http://theramshuddle.com/topic/benoit-rams-new-wrinkle-and-why-the-nfc-west-might-already-be-won/#post-92487

    They run Gurley with Goff under center a huge majority of the time, then most of the passes with Goff under center are play action.

    Yep the 2 things reinforce each other.

    Part of Denver’s defensive strategy in fact was not only to load up for the pass not the run, but also to just ignore play action—they looked for the pass first.

    Meanwhile everyone knows Gurley will run most of the time with Goff under center and his YPC (4.8) is still 6th among backs with 70 or more carries for the season.

    They got to cut TG back though. He has more carries than any NFL back, and that has to be cut down some.

    #92564
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from NFL Scouts, Coaches and Executives Rank the Top 10 Players in the NFL

    https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2801157-nfl-scouts-coaches-and-executives-rank-the-top-10-players-in-the-nfl#slide0

    Who are the 10 best players in the NFL today?

    That’s a text we sent to 12 longtime NFL scouts, coaches and general managers as the NFL season nears its midpoint.

    That question alone is tough to answer. You almost need context to define what “best” means. Are the best players those with the most talent or the players dominating statistically? To be one of the 10 best players, do you have to have both talent and production?

    Ultimately, that was up to the 12 men responding. What does best mean to them and who ranks in the top 10 players right now?

    Here are the results.

    4. Todd Gurley

    Scout’s Take: “If MVP truly goes to the league’s best player, it better go to Todd Gurley.”

    Todd Gurley is doing amazing things in an explosive, wide-open Rams offense and is in the running for the MVP award. Through six games, Gurley leads the NFL in touchdowns (11) and rushing yards (623) while dominating on a weekly basis.

    Gurley is the perfect fit for head coach Sean McVay’s fast-paced offense given his versatility and ability to run without a fullback or often even a tight end clearing paths for him. His vision and explosiveness are why the Rams invested a top-10 pick in a running back.

    The MVP award has mostly gone to quarterbacks, but Gurley is making a serious case as the league’s best player this year.

    #92591
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    They got to cut TG back though. He has more carries than any NFL back, and that has to be cut down some.

    they need to get back to using him more in the passing game. averages over 11 ypc in that department. just way more efficient and less taxing than carrying the ball.

    #92594
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    Gurley takes the angles. He inches his way out of the reach of maximum impact.

    Yeah he doesn’t have fast cut jitter in his body, though he is very athletic, so he does exactly what you say there. And you can watch an entire game of his and not notice it. OTOH if you look for it it’s very visible. It also means he doesn’t lose velocity. He does this thing we’re talking about at full speed.

    he’s a shifty power back. no he doesn’t cut on a dime like the smaller backs do. but he’s got above average shiftiness for a back his size.

    the league is in the middle of a kind of golden age for running backs right now.

    todd gurley
    saquon barkley
    ezekiel elliot
    melvin gordon
    le’veon bell

    there are others as well. but those five stand out the most for me. it’ll be interesting to see how it sorts itself all out 5-6 years from now.

    i thought this article was interesting. and not that gurley is a system back, but mcvay’s scheme is perfect for gurley. will that give him an advantage over other running backs? i certainly hope so!

    link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/todd-gurley-is-in-the-right-system-at-the-right-time/

    #92930
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from: Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott among most impactful RBs of 2018

    Cynthia Frelund

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000978645/article/todd-gurley-ezekiel-elliott-among-most-impactful-rbs-of-2018?campaign=tw-nf-sf200926988-sf200926988&sf200926988=1&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

    I’ve created a method to contextualize production at running back and relate it to a team’s ability to win. My model to measure running back impact uses seven seasons of data (2011-2017) to “learn” how games were won. It also compares the results from the past to the trends we’re seeing today. To oversimplify how the model works: I measure how each drive got a team closer to or further from a victory.

    As the game has evolved and teams have advanced in their personnel, matchup and play-calling strategies, the running back position has changed the most. A team’s production at the running back position has been created in a number of ways over the past seven seasons: Some via committee backfields, some from using the back in the passing game and some from true every-down backs. Individual running back contributions therefore have become more situational.

    For example, through seven weeks this season, 53 receiving touchdowns had been scored by running backs, tied for the third-most since 1970 — and the other three years were 1983 (56), 1989 (54) and 1986 (53). The point I want to hammer home is that there are many ways to get production out of this position, and strategies vary from team to team.

    Here’s a quick overview of what I did to determine running back impact:

    — Using 10 seasons of historical data, I layered spatial data on top of traditional stats using computer vision. By adding what happened when a back had the ball (e.g. number of tackles broken, yards after contact, yards after the catch), I was able to better contextualize traditional stats like scrimmage yards and touchdowns.

    — Each drive was also evaluated with tracking data about what backs did when they didn’t touch the ball. Actions like blocking on passing downs, and situations like facing defenses who stacked the box or drawing extra defensive attention in the red zone showed how the backs created opportunities for their teammates.

    — To define the connection between wins and the historical profiles, I enlisted the help of eight coaches and players to make sure the results had true football context.

    — In each team’s system, the weighing of “on-” and “off-” ball actions of backs varies (because what is asked of them varies) but they can all be compared in terms of how much they impacted first downs and touchdowns that resulted in game-relevant scoring.

    Through Week 7, here are the five most valuable backs in terms of impact, followed by a bonus five as well as five fast risers, for extra measure.

    1 Todd Gurley

    RB Rams

    Gurley is the archetype for this metric. Not only can you can see it when you watch him play but the traditional and advanced metrics, even without context, match the eye test and the wins follow. Part of the reason the eye test works here is because his 24.1 touches per game pace the NFL, just like his 14 touchdowns. Gurley leads the league in rushing first downs per game (5.7) and 44 percent of his receptions have moved the sticks (11 of 25). Then, add the context of how he changes space second-most often of any back on downs when he’s not the ball carrier or targeted (as measured by how many defenders are on him and how close they stay to him). The idea behind this metric is to measure how related a player is to wins, and no running back — or any other offensive player who is not a quarterback — rates higher through seven weeks.

    2018 traditional stats: 7 games | 144 att | 686 rush yds | 4.8 ypc | 11 rush TDs | 25 rec | 270 rec yds | 3 rec TDs

    #92934
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    Then, add the context of how he changes space second-most often of any back on downs when he’s not the ball carrier or targeted (as measured by how many defenders are on him and how close they stay to him). The idea behind this metric is to measure how related a player is to wins, and no running back — or any other offensive player who is not a quarterback — rates higher through seven weeks.

    very cool. and interesting.

    #92961
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    todd gurley at the halfway mark.

    800 yards rushing 11 tds 4.73 ypc
    351 yards receiving 4 tds 11.32 ypc

    really coulda shoulda woulda had 12 rushing tds. but he did the right thing.

    just wow. but it’s only half of a season, so it doesn’t mean squat. still. terrific start. now for the finish.

    #92970
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    todd gurley at the halfway mark.

    800 yards rushing 11 tds 4.73 ypc
    351 yards receiving 4 tds 11.32 ypc

    really coulda shoulda woulda had 12 rushing tds. but he did the right thing.

    just wow. but it’s only half of a season, so it doesn’t mean squat. still. terrific start. now for the finish.

    =============

    Isnt that entering Faulk territory?

    w
    v

    #93039
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    Isnt that entering Faulk territory?

    yeah. you’re talking about all-time great season for a running back territory over a 16 game season. the type of season that can get you votes for league mvp.

    of course there’s still another half to play. but he’s on pace for sure.

    it’s not just the yardage. it’s the yardage AND the touchdowns combined.

    i am troubled by one thing though. he’s on pace for exactly 400 touches on the season… i don’t like seeing that number. they need to find spots where they can rest him. if he can finish the season at around 370 touches, i’d feel a lot better – especially with playoffs coming.

    #93174
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    #93488
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    #93518
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    NFL Research@NFLResearch
    Todd Gurley is on pace to become the third player since 1932 to lead the NFL in scrimmage yards and scrimmage TD in back-to-back seasons

    The others?

    Hall of Famers Jim Brown (1958-1959) and Don Hutson (1941-1942)

    #93519
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    #93520
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    NFL Research@NFLResearch
    Todd Gurley is on pace to become the third player since 1932 to lead the NFL in scrimmage yards and scrimmage TD in back-to-back seasons

    The others?

    Hall of Famers Jim Brown (1958-1959) and Don Hutson (1941-1942)

    on pace. i’ll wait until the end of the season before i comment on that.

    #93776
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    #93817
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    one thing that is nice to see is he’s doing this while also remaining pretty darn efficient.

    5 yards per carry and 10.1 yards per reception.

    still. he’s racking up a lot of touches right now. 238 touches through 10 games and on pace for 381 through 16.

    that would be a career high. and while i wouldn’t exactly consider it reckless. i mean the great running back of all time would regularly touch the ball in the high 300s or even low 400s. i don’t think it’d be the worst idea to rest him a little during the season. especially when your backup is malcolm brown.

    i would expect him to get a good number of touches next week against kansas city. but after the bye, i think it’d be wise to start to curtail those touches when possible. brown’s a helluva running back. and he does no good just sitting on the bench.

    gurley right now is averaging 23.8 touches per game. i’d try to trim that down to 20 touches per game for the last 6 games.

    and maybe even more than just curtailing touches, they should consider ways to get gurley more in the passing game where he’s averaging significantly more yards per touch. especially with kupp now out. bringing his touches down while also getting him more involved in the passing game would keep his production and impact the same but put less wear on his body. and let brown do some more of the pounding in the running game.

    #93991
    Avatar photoAgamemnon
    Participant

    Agamemnon

    #93995
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    ok. while the guy makes some great points about gurley compared to other running backs, he loses me when he argues brees for mvp over gurley. one person said it best in the comments. you don’t hand out an mvp award for career achievements. you explain why the arguments for gurley as mvp are weak, and then you counter for brees getting mvp with one of the weakest arguments there are.

    for me. it is mahomes. although brees is a close second. and i wouldn’t necessarily argue against him as mvp. i just wouldn’t use the reasons stated by that guy as the reason for brees as mvp. i mean he uses pretty good analysis to argue why gurley’s season isn’t mvp worthy but then throws that all out of the window when it comes to brees.

    #94515
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    ==

    What this means.

    Gurley is not on list 2.

    Football Outsiders has a stat for runs stuffed. For his entire career, the Rams have been pretty negative on “runs stuffed” and/or for a loss. Not this year though.

    2015: 23%, ranked 28th
    2016: 22%, ranked 28th
    2017: 22%, ranked 22nd
    2018: 13.9%, ranked 1st

    #94517
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    2017: 22%, ranked 22nd
    2018: 13.9%, ranked 1st

    ===============

    What accounts for the difference?

    w
    v

    #94519
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    2017: 22%, ranked 22nd
    2018: 13.9%, ranked 1st

    ===============

    What accounts for the difference?

    w
    v

    IMO?

    Kromer year 2.

    They actually approach OL prep differently than they ever have. Long story. If I find the things I will post them.

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