On Goff not starting week 1

if the Rams really are close as Fisher and Snead repeatedly have said the loss of those picks is costly IF Goff can not provide an upgrade at the all important QB position for this team.

To me that’s just bad logic.

First, apparently the coaches trust CK more than the writer does. The logic being, CK works as a bridge qb AND in fact the whole point of going with a bridge qb is to win now and not sacrifice games to a rookie learning curve.

Second, the picks are worth it or not worth it based on the next decade. The point of trading up is to get a franchise qb…meaning (ie. how I use the term) a consistent season in and season out starter (“franchise” does not mean “elite” necessarily unless you think Ryan or Stafford are elite.)

So based on that I don’t judge the pick on the basis of the first few games of 2016.

Also, if you look back through history, there are just a small handful of times in the NFL where a team picking lower than say 10th traded up to the first spot to take a qb. That means a team with a record around 8-8, give or take, trading up. (Interestingly, in 1952 the 9-3 Rams got the 1st pick in the draft that year by landing it as a lottery bonus pick, and they took qb Billy Wade).

Arguably teams picking qbs that high will usually have records in the 1-15 to 4-12 range and so usually have nothing to lose in starting a rookie qb. Also arguably the Rams in contrast have nothing to gain.

Either way, going back to 2009 and Stafford, there have been 19 qbs picked in the 1st round. I will take “starting a rookie early” as meaning the qb gets at least 10 starts his rookie year, beginning with the first or second game of the season. Of those 19 qbs, 15 meet that criteria (4 don’t begin the season as starters or play at least 10 games though those 4 do play during the season). Of those 15, 3 play for teams with a winning record their rookie year (Sanchez, Luck, Griffin). (Notably two of those later fell on hard times for different reasons). That means 12 teams starting rookies ended up with losing records. If you look just at qbs picked in the top 10, it’s 12 qbs, 11 of which start the season (the exception being Locker). Of those 11, it’s the same 3 playing for teams with winning records their rookie year (Sanchez, Luck, Griffin). The other 8 play for teams with losing records.

Jared Goff might not be ready, but that doesn’t mean Rams didn’t make progress

Bonsignore

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/rams-727844-goff-havenstein.html

MINNEAPOLIS – The Rams boarded a late-night flight home from Minnesota on Thursday after concluding the preseason with a 27-25 loss to the Vikings. Awaiting them in Southern California was a massive move from their training camp site in Irvine to their home base in Thousand Oaks, a looming deadline to trim the roster from 75 players to the final 53-man roster and the realization that prized rookie quarterback Jared Goff will likely start his first NFL season as a third-stringer.

The next few days will be as hectic as they are sobering, and with the regular season 11 days away there is a ton of work left to do to get ready for the San Francisco 49ers on Sept. 12 in Santa Clara.

With the preseason now in the books, here is what we learned about the Rams after Thursday’s preseason finale.

GOFF HAS A LONG WAY TO GO

As much as it was a shock to hear Rams coach Jeff Fisher admit Goff will likely start the season behind both Case Keenum and Sean Mannion, it’s the right call.

Goff is not ready to take the field in a meaningful game. That doesn’t mean he can’t be ready one day or won’t ever be ready, but as we stand at the beginning of a new season Goff needs a ton of work.

“It’s all about being patient with him,” Fisher said.

Goff finished the preseason 22-of-49 passing for 232 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions and three fumbles.

Those are unsteady numbers to be sure, and while he remains steadfast in his ability – as do the Rams – his immediate future is more about learning and developing behind the scenes rather than playing.

The last month has been an eye-opening process for Goff, and he pledges to emerge better and stronger for it.

“The good things I did and all of the stuff I can learn from,” he said. “Obviously, there’s a lot of both.”

Jared Goff’s Preseason: Don’t Touch that Panic Button Just Yet

Jon Ledyard

[note: You have to follow the link to see the vids]

link: http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/teams-nfl/nfc-west/los-angeles-rams/2016/09/02/jared-goffs-preseason-dont-panic-just-yet/

As preseason comes to a close, people rush to sort things, sufficient information be dratted, and Los Angeles Rams #1 pick Jared Goff is not immune. Jon Ledyard takes a look at Jared Goff’s preseason to contextualize this struggles and concludes that there is no need to hit the panic button yet.
When the Los Angeles Rams made Jared Goff the first overall pick in the 2016 draft, trading away a plethora of picks in the process, the selection came with the expectation that the former California Golden Bears passer would become the face of the newly relocated franchise.

What the Rams didn’t specify, of course, was when that transition would occur, or how soon they wanted Goff to helm the offense that finished dead last in passing yards per game last season.

Many long-suffering L.A. fans obviously expected (Read: hoped) the move would come immediately, eager to see their young signal caller at work in the same backfield as 2015 offensive rookie of the year Todd Gurley. Jeff Fisher had other ideas, however, naming Case Keenum the starter in June and saying Goff would start “whenever he was ready.”

Still, one would have assumed that Goff would get a fair shot at the starting spot, if for no other reason than the fact that Keenum has proven very little over his four-year NFL career, completing 56 percent of his passes for just over 3,000 yards. As we exit the preseason however, Keenum ran nine drives with the first team offense in comparison to Goff’s two, and was recently confirmed as the starting quarterback for when the Rams take the field for Week 1 against the 49ers. In fact, Jeff Fisher said last night after Los Angeles’ 27-25 loss to the Vikings that Sean Mannion would be his second string option if the season started today.

This was never a quarterback competition, and it is important to understand that here at the outset. Keenum was placed at the table with a full house in his hand (or whatever the most compatible version of that the Rams can scrape together is), while Goff was left with a pair of deuces. The Rams wanted to sit Goff to start the season regardless of what was shown on the field and, because Keenum hasn’t completely imploded, they now have the ability to do so.

The predictable imbalance between the two quarterbacks’ supporting casts was evident throughout the preseason, particularly when Goff went under center to deal with, well, this:

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The sad part is: That isn’t even all of the poorly run routes or drops that Goff had to endure. As poor as it was, though, perhaps none of of the miscues were quite as egregious as this gaffe by Pharoh Cooper in the Rams’ first preseason game against the Cowboys.

Goff faces a 2nd-and-10 situation with the ball on the Cowboys 37-yard line and just 35 seconds left in the first half. With all three timeouts at his disposal, the Rams quarterback knows he can challenge any area of the field in his attempt to navigate his team into at least field goal range before the end of the half.

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At the snap, Dallas drops into a Cover 2 zone with safeties J.J. Wilcox and Kavon Frazier manning the two deep halves of the field. Rookie Michael Thomas is isolated on the backside of the Rams’ 3X1 look, but the receiver falls asleep on the snap and is far too slow off the line of scrimmage, prompting Goff to look elsewhere.

Cooper’s deep post, on the other hand, carries him to the Cover 2 hole between the safeties, and Goff places a perfect laser right on the receiver’s numbers. Wilcox does a good job of closing the window to put a hit on Cooper, though, and the pass catcher can’t hang on for what would have been a huge completion to give the Rams a first-and-goal.

That’s a big boy throw by a rookie quarterback playing with all backups in his first NFL game, and an encouraging sign for Goff’s development. There were questions about his arm strength and velocity entering the draft and, while that aspect of his game may never be elite, Goff’s tools appear more than adequate when observing him against NFL secondaries.

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Note the excellent pace on this throw to Higbee on a deep comeback route, fitting the ball in to the receiver before Wilcox can close over the top. Some have knocked Goff for not making many high degree of difficulty throws in his first three games, but those complaints ignore the context of the system in which the rookie is performing. The Rams offensive approach features many West Coast principles with short timing patterns designed to stretch the field horizontally before attacking it vertically. Accuracy and ball placement are paramount to a quarterback’s success in a West Coast offense, two areas of the game that are Goff’s greatest strengths.

Where Goff has struggled is in his progressions, by no means an unusual weakness for a rookie quarterback still adjusting to the pace of the NFL.

The Rams came out in 11 personnel to start the second half against the Chiefs in Goff’s second preseason game, one where the quarterback looked to rebound from a frustrating first half. The Chiefs show man coverage right away off the snap, but Goff locks onto his first read anyway, zipping a throw to Brian Quick despite the fact that the receiver has gained no separation on his comeback route.

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First, this is a really poor route by Quick, who stops at the top of his pattern rather than coming back to the football, generally considered a no-no when running a comeback route. Still, the decision isn’t a good one for Goff, who has to recognize when the window isn’t there and move to his next progression, especially given the time he has in the pocket. If he had, he would have seen the outside receiver to his left, Thomas, come open underneath against Steven Nelson for what could have been a big gain.

Similarly, against Denver the Rams come out in 12 personnel with rookie tight end Tyler Higbee in the slot to Goff’s left. Please note that, for the second consecutive drive, the Rams reserves are in the game with Goff against most of Denver’s starting defense. Again, right off the snap Goff’s eyes are locked onto his target, allowing safety Darian Stewart an easy read and break on the ball.

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Stewart drops the easiest pick-six he’ll ever see in his life here, as Goff, in his eagerness to hit his route on time and get the ball out of his hand, forgoes his progressions and dispenses with any sense of field awareness.

These are common mistakes for a rookie that are nothing to be concerned about right now; In addition, Goff’s supporting cast has been dreadful, and the Los Angeles coaches have not put him in the best position to succeed.

Granted, Goff has not been perfect either. Nevertheless, I’ve counted 9-12 drops (depending on what you expect to be a catch) and two interceptions that came as results of poor protection – mistakes that have had disastrous effects on Goff’s preseason numbers. Nine more catches on those dropped passes would elevate Goff’s completion percentage from 45 percent to just over 63 percent, a far cry from the bleak statistical results that have been paraded all over social media for the past few weeks.

In the final preseason game against Minnesota, Goff looked excellent on the opening drive, marching the offense down the field on just his third possession of the entire preseason with the starters. He made plays inside and outside of the pocket before capping the drive with an extremely well-placed touchdown pass to Kenny Britt’s outside shoulder despite tight coverage from Mackensie Alexander. If not for a Brian Quick drop to begin the drive, Goff would have finished a perfect 4-4.

Then things began to unravel. Goff took a few shots and started rushing and sailing passes. The low point came when he dropped a shotgun snap at his own 7-yard line, a mistake that several Minnesota defenders pounced on after the quarterback took his eyes off the ball to survey the secondary a tad early. Goff will need to be better than these mistakes moving forward, even as a rookie, but nothing he’s put on tape so far is unusual or worse than your typical young quarterback mistakes. Unfortunately for Goff, those mistakes have only been exacerbated by the extremely low level of play around him, to say nothing of the expectations that accompany being the number one overall pick at the game’s most important position.

In the proper context, we can see that while Goff certainly has aspects of his game that need work, the Rams’ franchise quarterback has not been close to as bad as his numbers or the common media narratives (or even his head coach?) would suggest. Had he been given an equal opportunity to win the starting quarterback job over Case Keenum, Goff might certainly have done so – but we’ll never know given the situation and personnel with which he was asked to perform.

Few would claim Goff is ready to be a successful starting quarterback in the NFL, but is Keenum? In short, let’s not bury Goff just yet, as the young quarterback will receive much better opportunities from which to judge his caliber of play than the ones he has been given thus far this preseason.

off the net from RockRam

The Goff controversy is a red herring. It distracts from reality. The Rams are not going to win or lose based on whether Keenum or Goff start. They will win or lose based on the Defense playing well and our oline blocking for Gurley. Keenum is plenty good enough to throw the football to the right guys. The issue for the Offense is going to be a) good play calling and using the skill players we have to their best ability, b) sufficient blocking and an effective running game, c) WRs and TEs that catch the balls that are thrown their way.

The Goff thing is a media-driven sideshow. There is no way that a reasonably competent veteran QB gets beat out by a rookie QB. A rookie QB starts if a) the other QBs are not competent or they are hurt, or b) there is a strategic plan to live with the growing pains and start the rookie, ready or not.

We have seen the issue of starting rookie QBs go both ways. They can advance the learning curve and by year 2 you have a pretty good NFL QB with a lot of upside. Or you can ruin a kid by him getting hit too much, losing too much, and him losing his confidence.

Who is to say in any given situation is the best way to go? Either way it is little more than crystal ball gazing, a coaching philosophy, and a lot of subjective analysis.

Fisher’s decision is that he believes he has a decent reliable competent QB in Keenum sufficient to win. He said this at the close of last year, and said it before the draft, and has continued to say it since the draft. He has also said that Keenum will start until Goff is ready; and what “ready” amounts to only Fisher and his brain trust know. At this moment, he says Goff is not ready.

So the Goff matter is a separate issue. Is he still the guy they thought he was? Or is he not? Is he the future, or is he a disappointment? I don’t know. But what I do know after 50 years of watching football is that it is nearly impossible to know after 1 training camp, and in some ways it is impossible to know after one season what you’ve got for sure. We’ve seen one year wonders (RG3), and we’ve seen guys have a couple of good years and regress (Luck, Bradford), and we’ve seen guys get steadily better (Brady, Wilson).

Anyway, that’s how I see it and that’s why whether Goff starts or not is not the issue for me. The issue is: can and will the Rams win now and grow into a formidable playoff team? And by no means does that start and end with Goff.

Rams QB Jared Goff must learn to be a backup

Vincent Bonsignore

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20160909/vincent-bonsignore-rams-qb-jared-goff-must-learn-to-be-a-backup

THOUSAND OAKS >> The starting point is nowhere near were Jared Goff originally imagined. In that respect, he’s no different than anyone else. The Rams included.

If anyone says they would have predicted or anticipated or been OK with the first overall pick starting his NFL career at the back of the Rams quarterback line, they’re either lying or not in the loop.

Goff was generally regarded as the most National Football League quarterback available in last April’s draft, and that wasn’t an opinion exclusive to the Rams.

Off that distinction, he separated himself from the rest of the quarterback group and the Rams built their justification to trade six picks to the Tennessee Titans to move from the 15th pick to the first pick overall to take Goff over North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz.

So to say there isn’t even a hint of disappointment that Goff didn’t distinguish himself as the second-string quarterback, let alone the starter, would be disingenuous.

“My whole life, I’ve been the starter,” Goff said.

Now he’s third string. And that takes some getting used to.

For everyone.

Instead of returning home to the Bay Area the starting quarterback of the Los Angeles Rams, he’ll be standing on the sideline in street clothes.

Instead of preparing for the season opener against the San Francisco 49ers, he’s focused on a long-range plan that will eventually lift him from the raw prospect he looked like during training camp to the player everyone assumed he’d rapidly be upon the Rams taking him with the first overall pick.

It’s about having faith in the process rather than trusting this week’s game plan.

“And there is a process,” Goff said. “You’re just going to trust the process, and know that it’s all going to work out.”

He said this with conviction in his voice. But more and more the conversation about Goff is based on hope rather than certainty.

Based on how he performed during training camp and the preseason, it’s all we really have.

Yes, the Rams preached patience with Goff going all the way back to their pre-draft evaluation of him. And in talking to the former Cal Golden Bear, Rams coach Jeff Fisher was up front that getting him on the field could be swift or a prolonged ordeal.

“He talked about if (prolonged) was the case, there will be no rushing,” Goff said. “Whenever it’s time, it’s time. If it needs to happen early, it happens early. If it needs to happen a little bit later, it happens later. I’m just going to continue to trust him and to trust the process, and know that they have a really well thought-out plan in place, and I’m still a part of it.”

But completion of that plan seems so much further away than anyone could have imagined.

And that’s disappointing considering the home run swing the Rams took to acquire Goff.

It was move made for reasons both obvious and subtle.

No question they wanted to make a bold first step back into the Los Angeles market, and it doesn’t get much grander than trading for the first overall pick and grabbing a future face of the franchise at the most important position on the field.

Just as importantly, in talking to Rams folks, there is a sincere belief they are inches away from taking that next step in the growth process rather than feet. Closing that gap was predicated primarily on better quarterback play.

With one mighty swing of the bat, they felt they achieved both objectives.

Nothing like making a bold move to stir up the second-biggest market in the country.

And nothing like adding a dynamic new quarterback to carry the team to the next level.

That didn’t happen, obviously.

Goff performed through training camp and preseason like a prospect still in need of major seasoning. Without the benefit of the minor leagues for more fine tuning, he’ll toil away behind the scenes trying to get up to speed.

To the untrained eye, Goff looks at least a year away from making a significant contribution. That goes for his level of play to his physical stature. He’s every bit the 6-foot-5 he’s listed. But 205 pounds never looked skinnier stretched over his lanky frame.

Meanwhile, starter Case Keenum and second-year man Sean Mannion significantly out-played Goff. So when the Rams drew up their depth chart for Monday night’s season opener, there was no justification to elevate Goff over the two veterans.

Discouraging.

But prudent.

And for the kid for whom so much was expected, about as humbling as you can imagine.

His name was called first overall among 253 players drafted last April.

But no telling when his named will be called upon.

Nobody had that in the script.

“I’m just going to be patient, wait until my number is called, and continue to get ready out on the field, and continue to practice as hard as I can,” Goff said. “When my number is called, be ready.”

Goff’s NFL future pretty much depends on it.

His ability to process and compartmentalize what can only be deemed a set back and learn and grow and emerge better for it are the keys to everything.

And he’ll have to do it as much mentally as he does physically.

With practice time cut down in the NFL over the years and reps at a premium for the starter and back up, third-string quarterbacks get precious few chances to get snaps during the course of the week. So Goff will have to rely on his eyes and ears watching Keenum and Mannion almost as much as his legs and arm.

“Just continue to learn and take mental reps,” he said. “I’ve never done it before, so I am learning how to do that as well. Just trying to try to learn from what they do well, and then learn from their mistakes. Case has been in the league for a long time now. I just pick his brain and ask him as much as I can, and get to know as much as I can before my number is called, so I can be ready.”

When that time comes is anyone’s guess.