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Best, worst offensive line groups
By Christopher Harris
ESPN.comDeMarco Murray is crushing it. He’s the No. 1 running back in fantasy and the current runaway leader in Value-Based Drafting ranks, which easily makes him fantasy’s MVP at the quarter mark. I understand how much risk he totes around with him — he’s missed 11 games in three NFL seasons and knee, ankle and wrist injuries have regularly made him questionable — but if I drafted him in August I’m not selling high. His workload may eventually get him, but at this point the reward justifies the risk.
While Murray is a talented player — big and fast with good hands — there’s something else going on with the Dallas Cowboys, too. That offensive line is incredible.
Theoretically, we all know how much an O-line means to a RB, but this first month has been an object lesson in the restorative and punitive powers of run blocking. Talented rushers have seen their production undercut by poor lines, and marginal RBs have been boosted by their front lines getting a spectacular push. So I think it’s a worthwhile exercise to evaluate which units are doing their jobs well, and which have been poor.
Is there a metric that can tell you for certain how an offensive line is playing? Some folks believe in yards before contact (YBC), under the theory that if you’re getting good push, your RB makes it further down the field before a defender can touch him:
Highest Avg. Yds Before Contact, This Season
Avg. YBC
Lamar Miller, MIA 3.98
Justin Forsett, BAL 3.86
Khiry Robinson, NO 3.83
Isaiah Crowell, CLE 3.63
Knowshon Moreno, MIA 3.52
Andre Ellington, ARI 3.41
Shane Vereen, NE 3.39
DeMarco Murray, DAL 3.30
Knile Davis, KC 3.23
Le’Veon Bell, PIT 3.18I think there’s some value to this number. Seeing both Miami Dolphins RBs on this list makes you believe the team has come a long way from last year’s incompetent and drama-filled line, and seeing a Baltimore Ravens RB here jibes with my sense that ridding themselves of Michael Oher at right tackle (in favor of mauling second-year former tight end Rick Wagner) was one of the smartest moves the Ravens could’ve made. But YBC doesn’t account for opponent, run direction, play type or other holistic factors that go into offensive line play. It’s a guiding stat, but not one I want to build my evaluations around.
No, like so many things in the NFL, gauging line play requires film review. As much as we want football to be like baseball — where metrics are incredibly helpful, because the pitcher-batter interaction is consistent and so oft-repeated — most NFL evaluations can’t be boiled down to numbers. There are just too many variables. I also should add that I’m not formally trained in breaking down an individual lineman’s tape. There literally are camps to learn about these things, and I haven’t attended them. But I watch every game, often multiple times, so I do have a pretty good sense of how lines are blocking as units. Here’s how I see the best and worst through four weeks.
Three up
1. Dallas Cowboys: Maybe Murray doesn’t lead the league in YBC, but his rushing lanes are often massive. This is a crushing, grinding, power-blocking scheme led by Tyron Smith, who is perhaps the best left tackle in the league. But each man across this line has pancaked defenders multiple times, and in rewatching Cowboys tape I realize how precise and powerful they are.
On the play below against the New Orleans Saints, Murray isn’t making an en vogue zone run; he’s patiently setting up Smith and left guard Ronald Leary as they wall off defenders. Meanwhile, center Travis Frederick gets to the second level and blocks a linebacker, right guard Zack Martin stonewalls a defensive tackle, and right tackle Doug Free delays weakside defensive help:
If we take a snapshot of the exact same moment from a different angle, we get an appreciation for how devastating this is. Smith and Leary have kicked out and in, respectively, and have muscled their defenders away so Murray’s lane is clear as day. And the fact that Frederick has gotten upfield makes this a touchdown: Murray will see Frederick shoving Curtis Lofton left, and make a simple cutback to score:
By my accounting, no line is currently doing this better than the Cowboys’. They may have some pass-blocking deficiencies (they’ve allowed eight sacks), but they are Murray’s best friends.
2. Cincinnati Bengals: There aren’t any Bengals on the YBC list above, but Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill are benefiting from a line with longevity: Only rookie center Russell Bodine hasn’t been a starter here for multiple years, though right guard Kevin Zeitler is currently out with a calf injury. Andy Dalton has yet to be sacked in three games and has been pressured on a league-low 10.5 percent of his dropbacks, which is somewhat tangible statistical evidence of quality. But these guys are also mashers in the run game.
Folks remember Andre Smith as a problem child from “Hard Knocks” a few years ago, but he has morphed into a mean dude when Bernard runs his way. Smith was a handful in Week 2 (against an admittedly poor Atlanta Falcons defensive front), getting to the second level and tossing around linebackers. It strikes me that while pretty much any O-line would be a good fit for someone as talented as Bernard, this group is also well suited for Hill’s pile-driving style: They don’t do a ton of group east-west finesse stuff (though their guards do pull well individually), but rather fire out hard, which works well with Hill’s decisive attack.
3. St. Louis Rams: They’ve played only three games and Zac Stacy isn’t yet setting the world ablaze, but I’m impressed by what I’ve seen. I’m sure this is partly because Stacy himself is such a load, but you rarely see him swarmed under behind the line of scrimmage, and that’s at least partly a tribute to the O-line.
You don’t have to watch much tape before you figure out the Rams are best when they’re running left, behind tackle Jake Long and guard Rodger Saffold. Long has been a premier “inside seal” tackle for years, allowing his RBs to bounce out left and get around the edge; while Stacy isn’t a home run hitter, he has surprising lateral agility for a 224-pound guy. This running game — and this team — may go as far as preseason third-string quarterback Austin Davis can take them by keeping defenses honest, but seeing solid O-line play still has me optimistic on Stacy.
Three down
1. Philadelphia Eagles: This is no surprise, and no reflection on Chip Kelly. This line has been wrecked by injuries, suspensions and ejections. LeSean McCoy has been a victim here; his beloved outside zone-read plays have essentially been “unrunnable,” as his substitute linemen haven’t been able to prevent defenders from getting in front of Shady as he stretches east/west, and haven’t been able to hold the backside to allow McCoy to cut back:
One key principle of a zone play like this one is that once a lineman wins or finds himself uncovered, he sprints toward the sideline, creating a wall behind which McCoy can cut back. The Eagles are so thin up front that Brent Celek actually has to play right tackle here, but he’s not the problem. The key breakdowns are guards Matt Tobin and Dennis Kelly. Tobin gets an initial push right but stumbles before he can get to linebacker Michael Wilhoite, and Wilhoite’s presence doesn’t allow McCoy to cut back. Kelly has a clear path to Patrick Willis, but falls down before he can get there, and Willis literally can be seen in this freeze frame stepping over Kelly’s prostrate body. This is a total mess, and McCoy gains zero.
Of course, neither Tobin nor Kelly is supposed to be playing, nor is center David Molk. Fortunately, right tackle Lane Johnson returns from suspension this week, meaning at least he and LT Jason Peters are accounted for; around Week 10, regular center Jason Kelce is also supposed to be ready to come back from his sports hernia surgery. In other words, there’s a built-in excuse here, and things could get better. Right now, though, it’s ugly.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: This is piling on after the Jags led last week’s list of the NFL’s worst cornerback trios, but it’s the truth. Toby Gerhart may not be a dynamic player, but when you’re met in the backfield as frequently as he is, there’s not much you can do. Jacksonville already released starting right tackle Cameron Bradfield, and former No. 2 overall pick Luke Joeckel has been shaky in pass protection at left tackle. Click through all of Gerhart’s carries in ’14 and it’s a litany of mistakes and turnstile impersonations; I also worry about Blake Bortles’ longevity. Massive Austin Pasztor will return from injury in the next month and man the right side, but if there’s a reason to be skeptical Gerhart will bounce back and be a fantasy factor, you’re looking at it.
3. Carolina Panthers: This is a team that lost the entire left side of its offensive line to retirement this winter, and it shows. Byron Bell is blatantly overmatched at left tackle (heck, he wasn’t that great at right tackle last year); he and left guard Amini Silatolu are responsible for some of the biggest left-side cave-ins I’ve seen on tape this year. To my eyes, there’s simply precious little forward push up and down this O-line, as Cam Newton and the various RBs are forced to dodge defenders so early in a play that they need to weave through traffic just to get back to the line. A once-proud group now can’t convert third-and-short, which makes you wonder whether Newton will be a fantasy star even when his ribs allow him to run more.
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