Football Outsiders: Rams defense 29th against play action

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  • June 24, 2015 at 12:02 pm #26713
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from 2014 Play—Action Defense

    by Sterling Xie

    According to these guys, Rams pass D was ranked 29th against play action, & was ranked 12th against passes without play action. See the whole article at:

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/2014-play-action-defense

    There’s no “magic bullet” formula that encapsulates how a defense will fare against play-action, but we can look at particular characteristics and see if they provide any hints. One idea here could be to search for a connection between play-action defense and teams that have great pass rushes. Last year’s article illustrated how the average depth of play-action passes was significantly longer than non-play-action passes, a finding that’s hardly surprising. With slower developing routes featuring deep dropbacks, strong pass-rushing defenses should theoretically have a better shot at disrupting these big-play opportunities. So going back to 2007, I took a look at the correlation between adjusted sack rate and both play-action DVOA and percentage of play-action passes faced:

    June 25, 2015 at 1:40 pm #26738
    rfl
    Participant

    That’s not too good, is it?

    Think maybe a wildly erratic run defense might have something to do with it?

    By virtue of the absurd ...

    June 25, 2015 at 2:38 pm #26739
    Avatar photowv
    Participant
    rfl wrote:

    That’s not too good, is it?

    Think maybe a wildly erratic run defense might have something to do with it?

    Yes, i think so. But I imagine it also reflected some of the
    bonehead communication issues the D was plagued with. I think.

    And i am ‘guessing’ the play-action stats got better the second
    half of the year. Granted, the Giant game was a disaster.

    So, what are the biggest question marks this year? OLine and Run Defense?

    I think Foles will be solid, if the OLine comes together.

    w
    v

    June 25, 2015 at 3:28 pm #26744
    rfl
    Participant
    wv wrote:

    Yes, i think so. But I imagine it also reflected some of the
    bonehead communication issues the D was plagued with. I think.

    And i am ‘guessing’ the play-action stats got better the second
    half of the year. Granted, the Giant game was a disaster.

    So, what are the biggest question marks this year? OLine and Run Defense?

    I think Foles will be solid, if the OLine comes together.

    w
    v

    Well, for me, you start with a solid run defense. That negates most of the effectiveness of play action. You can’t go play action if you can’t run the ball. ANd a defense sturggling to scheme to stop the run is far more vulnerable to play action.

    As for the “2nd half of the year” business … well, I guess. I wouldn’t put it that way. I’d say in our good games, which were scattered through the year.

    As for the O, well, I feel guardedly optimistic about Foles. My reasoning on Foles is simply that a guy who played as well as he did that one year has already demonstrated pretty solid competence. Yes, if the offense as a whole stands up, I figure Foles will be able to play well enough to win a decent number of games.

    I think the real question on offense is the OL AND the running game. Fisher is committed to running the ball. If that comes together, the passing game can do pretty well, I think. Well enough IF …

    The Defense lives up to its potential. To me, that’s the biggest question of all. That unit, right now, has the potential and talent to be a truly elite unit of the sort that a winning team builds its success on. IMO, the biggest question about this year’s Rams is whether the D lives up to its potential. I also think that the biggest reason why we settled for a mediocre year last year was because the defense did NOT live up to its potential.

    Just my opinion.

    By virtue of the absurd ...

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