(pre-draft): off-season rankings and progress reports

from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/four-downs/2021/four-downs-nfc-west

Los Angeles Rams

Biggest Need: Secondary

Really, the biggest need here should read “cap space” (the Rams are more than $34 million over the cap, per Over The Cap) or “draft picks” (after trades for Jalen Ramsey and Matthew Stafford, the Rams don’t have another first-round pick until 2024), but on the field, general manager Les Snead is charged with rebuilding a secondary for new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. Three of the four L.A. defensive backs who played at least 800 defensive snaps last year will soon be free agents.

The good news is the one that is staying is Jalen Ramsey, the two-time All-Pro cornerback. But the three who could be leaving include:

– Safety John Johnson, who led the team in defensive snaps (1,024) and tackles (105) and got our vote for the All-Pro team;
– Cornerback Troy Hill, a 16-game starter in 2020 who led the NFL in both yardage (119) and touchdowns (two) on interception returns and gave up only 24.3 yards per game in coverage, sixth-lowest among corners with more than 10 starts;
– and Darious Williams, who started 10 games at corner and finished third at the position in success rate (63.9%) despite seeing an average target depth of 16.8 yards, deepest in the NFL.

Williams at least will be a restricted free agent, which makes him the most likely to stay in town, but that’s just going to add to the Rams’ salary cap burden.

Major Free Agents: John Johnson, S; Troy Hill, CB; Darious Williams, CB; Leonard Floyd, ER; Samson Ebukam, ER; Josh Reynolds, WR; Austin Blythe, C; Gerald Everett, TE

As if losing most of their coverage men wasn’t bad enough, The Rams could also lose their top two edge rushers in Leonard Floyd and Samson Ebukam. Floyd is the real prize here, with 10.5 sacks in his first year in L.A. after 18.5 in four years with the Bears. Ebukam started 14 games, but played less than.half of the team’s defensive snaps in 12 of them.

The Rams also have three major contributors on offense hitting the market, but each plays in a position of depth. They have Van Jefferson, a second-round rookie last year, ready to step in for Josh Reynolds and his 52-618-2 statline. The departure of Gerald Everett should just mean more targets for Tyler Higbee, ninth in DYAR last season and top-20 in that category for three years in a row. Austin Blythe would be the biggest loss—he has started 47 of 48 games the last three years at both left guard and center—but the Rams also have Brian Allen, who started nine games at center for them in 2019.

With Leonard Floyd locked in, how can Rams answer other questions on defense?

Jourdan Rodrigue

https://theathletic.com/2455595/2021/03/16/with-leonard-floyd-locked-in-how-can-rams-answer-other-questions-on-defense/

The Rams’ biggest move this week (and second-biggest of free agency, behind trading for quarterback Matthew Stafford) was an extension for outside linebacker Leonard Floyd, at four years and $64 million, a source with knowledge of the terms confirmed Monday.

As far as free agency goes, it might not get much splashier than that for the Rams, who, once solidifying Floyd’s yearly average, spent most of Tuesday restructuring a few of their core contracts to swan-dive underneath the shrunken salary cap. One league source believes that the Rams are sitting tight for now, and while they may be open to adding here and there, it’s more likely to be for players in minimum-salary range.

But that doesn’t mean they’re done sprucing up their roster altogether. And on defense, they’ll need more than a spruce, and more than the addition of Floyd, to really create the kind of balance that brought them so much success in 2020 as the NFL’s top unit.

The ideal balance for the Rams’ defense is predicated by their rush-coverage tandems. They made this philosophical commitment the moment they, after already spending big on star defensive tackle Aaron Donald, doubled down on a massive contract extension for star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. So it’s best to envision the sequencing of the entire defense, and where the Rams will invest their top financial and draft resources, via those tandems (even as they rotate and interchange based on scheme and system).

One tandem, connected by status, the attention they draw from others, contract and near-autonomy at their respective positions, is of course Donald and Ramsey. Donald’s pressure opens up what Ramsey can do; Ramsey’s coverage gives Donald a little extra time to get pressure. Both rotate within their respective position groups — Donald along the defensive line, and Ramsey from the outside to the slot, or all over the field depending on whether he’s shadowing a receiver.

Another tandem, connected by their complement to Donald and Ramsey and how the former two players impact their own matchups, plus their transaction alignment, is Floyd and cornerback Darious Williams, upon whom the Rams placed a first-round tender Monday — just a few hours before agreeing to the extension with Floyd.

Arguments about his salary number aside, Floyd has proven durability and doesn’t really need to come off the field, and it’s clear the Rams view him as a three-down rusher and run defender on one side of Donald. He played 90 percent of defensive snaps in 2020, the highest among Rams defensive linemen. Meanwhile, Williams will man the lead spot opposite Ramsey and usually stay there depending on whether new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris switches up some of the Rams’ secondary rotation from last season.

But what about on the other side of Floyd?

Depth players Samson Ebukam and Derek Rivers have departed in free agency, although that was expected. Third-year outside linebackers Obo Okoronkwo and Justin Hollins are still available, but neither played a proven (or, in Okoronkwo’s case, fully healthy) role in 2020. Second-year outside linebacker Terrell Lewis missed eight games last season due to what I understand to be lingering concerns over a recurring knee issue. Lewis showed he can be productive even if he’s held on a “pitch count” out of regard for his health, but it’s not a full answer for the Rams.

Floyd’s salary number crept higher than anticipated in part because multiple teams were also interested in signing him, and the Rams felt he was a priority to extend. His leverage increased not only because of other interested parties but also because he and his agent knew that depth on the perimeter is a concern and the starter-ready talent in this year’s draft basically bottoms out by the time the Rams’ first pick arrives in the second round. But what if the Rams could find a player who can rotate with Lewis in specialized situations, thus offering him more time to develop and Lewis a more efficient snap count for his own long-term durability?

And what about the “coverage” part? There, more questions remain as free agency prepares for its second wave.

For example, if the Rams can’t work out an extension with versatile veteran cornerback Troy Hill, who may have played well enough in 2020 to price himself out of the Rams’ plans, they’ll need help at corner. Even though Ramsey and Williams have the lead cornerback spots locked up, the Rams were in nickel on nearly 60 percent of their defensive snaps and in dime on nearly 25 percent. They have David Long Jr. on the roster as a corner who can play nickel, and second-year safety Terrell Burgess can project into their larger nickel spot, but otherwise it’s pretty bare — and unproven. Hill also could move into the slot or play on the outside, a trait that was incredibly valuable when the Rams schemed Ramsey up to travel or to play in their Star position — strategy that should not change, if they want to maximize Ramsey’s ability.

Unless they can bring in a versatile, savvy corner at well under $5 million to $6 million per year, the Rams will need to invest in this position in the draft.

There is a similar — though less depth-concerning — situation on the interior defensive line, where the Rams are preparing to possibly lose up-and-coming versatile defensive lineman Morgan Fox, who had a career-high six sacks last year. Like Hill, Fox may have priced himself out of the Rams’ rotation.

But unlike the cornerbacks room, the defensive line is crowded with interior players in Sebastian Joseph-Day and A’Shawn Robinson. The Rams feel good about their depth there, despite reaching a trade agreement with the Lions on Tuesday that will send veteran defensive tackle Michael Brockers to Detroit for a small (yet still undisclosed) return.

Meanwhile, the Rams have depth at safety even after the departure of starter John Johnson, who will officially sign with the Cleveland Browns this week. The Rams are high on their young, middle-round drafted players such as Taylor Rapp and Burgess, and one source with knowledge of the team’s plans said they believe Jordan Fuller could call the defensive signals and assume a role much like Johnson had in 2020.

Inside linebacker may then become the “odd position out” once again for the Rams, should they continue to pursue this investment/balance model. Recently, general manager Les Snead all but gushed over their previous decision to play relatively unproven starters once Travin Howard suffered a season-ended injury, and then to keep riding with those players even as Micah Kiser, their eventual starter, also got hurt. There could even be a sense that, if the Rams were able to hold a No. 1 defense without elite middle linebacker play, then there is little motivation to devote financial or top draft capital to that position.

All of those linebackers — (adding) Howard, Kiser, Troy Reeder, Kenny Young and practice squad-er Christian Rozeboom — will return in 2021.

That position could even get left out when, as we continue through the spring, the Rams talk internally about where the real balance of their defense lies … and ultimately, where their limited resources will go.

from NFL power rankings: 2021 free agency, pre-draft trades boost Rams, 49ers, Cowboys

Nate Davis
USA TODAY

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/columnist/nate-davis/2021/04/01/nfl-power-rankings-free-agency-pre-draft-trades-2021-cowboys-rams/4830287001/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

NFL power rankings, 2021 offseason’s post-free agency edition (previous rank in parentheses):

1. Buccaneers (1): “We’re keeping the band together,” per QB Tom Brady. “We’re going for two,” per head coach Bruce Arians, who kindly advises you not to use the Chiefs’ (failed) “run it back” motto. Whether or not the Bucs do become the first team to repeat in 17 years, TB12 did his part financially to keep this roster intact – OLB Shaq Barrett, WR Chris Godwin and TE Rob Gronkowski among those returning – and Arians, 68, is certainly energized to make some history in the twilight of his uniquely signature career.

2. Chiefs (3): They’ve made very nice pickups on both sides of the line scrimmage – notably OL Joe Thuney and Kyle Long and DT Jarran Reed – and should get G Laurent Duvernay-Tardif back from his opt-out year, though still not clear who QB Patrick Mahomes’ tackles will be in 2021.

3. Packers (2): They managed to retain RB Aaron Jones, otherwise … Remains to be seen what kind of help GM Brian Gutekunst obtains for MVP Aaron Rodgers and Co. with the 29th pick of the draft, but this is shaping as another year when the Pack are treading water at best.

4. Rams (5): Their top-ranked defense took a few hits in free agency. But can’t wait to see what the Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay marriage – not to mention the dimension speedy WR DeSean Jackson adds – means for an offense that ranked 22nd in points scored.

5. Bills (4): They’re pretty much keeping the band together, too – even adding WR Emmanuel Sanders on keyboards and QB Mitchell Trubisky on backing vocals – though it remains to be seen if this is act is good enough, as constructed, to win a Grammy.

from PFF: Ranking all 32 NFL rosters ahead of the 2021 NFL Draft

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-all-32-nfl-rosters-ahead-of-the-2021-nfl-draft

The list was heavily influenced by the two-year PFF WAR (wins above replacement) of the players who are currently on each roster, but it also had some subjective projection involved for those younger, emerging talents.

11. LOS ANGELES RAMS

Had the Rams re-signed safety John Johnson III and slot corner Troy Hill over edge defender Leonard Floyd, they’d be a few spots higher on this list. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald might just be the best player at his position the NFL has ever seen. He has generated 2.95 WAR since 2014, a full win more than any other interior defensive lineman and two wins more than all but seven players at the position.

In the secondary, the Rams still feature a quality outside cornerback duo in Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams. They ranked third and sixth, respectively, in WAR generated in 2020. On offense, Los Angeles traded for quarterback Matthew Stafford, who will add a downfield passing element. He’ll have Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp at his disposal, both of whom rank inside the top 30 in WAR generated since 2019. Los Angeles could still stand to add to its receiving unit, though.

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