the March 2018 draft thread

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  • #83675
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    ok. i’ve thought about it.

    and. i still want best player available…

    if kolton miller is available at that pick… that’s who i want. i know the rams have been burned before by extremely athletic left tackles with questionable technique, but he’s too good to pass up.

    there were questions about his technique last year, but that was his first year playing left tackle, and i heard he was not getting very good coaching. but that’s what’s so great about this. kromer and whitworth will be the ones teaching and mentoring him. he doesn’t have to step in right away. opportunities don’t come along like this very often. if he lasts that long.

    if he doesn’t last that long, i’d say pick best front seven player available.

    secondary is set. looks like they’re going to be able to afford watkins.

    i guess you could go tight end, if there’s one available who they like. center is another possibility.

    but i really want kolton miller. i also reserve the right to change my mind at any point.

    • This topic was modified 6 years, 9 months ago by Avatar photozn.
    #83676
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    to add to that. if miller is gone, i prefer the rams draft an inside backer in the first round. that’s IF miller is gone.

    vander esch, smith, or evans would all do. they might not even make it to #23. but who knows.

    third round they get their edge rusher.

    and this is assuming the rams sign avery williamson as well.

    wow. just wow.

    #83679
    Avatar photoAgamemnon
    Participant

    I want a NT. 😉

    Agamemnon

    #83687
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    secondary is set. looks like they’re going to be able to afford watkins.

    I doubt they go pure BPA or even close. I think the pick is either going to be a linebacker or a DT.

    They still need to sign robey-coleman too.

    #83688
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    I want a NT.

    that would be good too.

    best player available.

    vita vea? da’ron payne? then they could draft their linebackers in the later rounds.

    • This reply was modified 6 years, 9 months ago by Avatar photozn.
    • This reply was modified 6 years, 9 months ago by Avatar photoInvaderRam.
    #83773
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    alyoshamucci wrote:

    Guess we don’t need a corner high anymore … I’m doing this in 2 sections … top 5 and dart board …

    I think we resign Watkins.

    Top 5

    1) Harold Landry Edge… smooth movement skills, 4.6 40 … burst, bend and flatten to the QB. I think he’s probably a better overall player than Vic Beasley was coming out but the higher profile athletes are marginalizing his ability. I was hoping he wouldn’t come out last year so we’d have a shot at him this year. Backup plan: Lorenzo Carter
    We may even be able to trade down here and still get him or Carter or Key.

    3) Tim Settle NT. Rough combine will have him slide. Great. He’s a nose tackle. I need him to “not move” better than he “moves.”

    4) Will Clapp OC. Center and OG that can backup a year if needed.

    4) Micah Kiser ILB … signal caller and “heart of the defense” kinda guy that should go higher … but the position has a lot of talent this year.

    Dart Board My guess is that these will be used to get picks in 19′ or to move up in this draft … but since they’re here, I’ll use them.

    6) Durham Smythe TE … bad combine, high talent at the position, he slides.

    6) Joe Noteboom DT Kinda pedestrian but could be a decent RT and finish the game at OLT in a pinch.

    6) Travon Young rOLB This guy gets no love, no idea why.

    6) Godwin Iqwebuike S Liked him for years, tested better than I thought.

    6) Daurice Fountain WR Put on a show at the East West game and got no combine invite.

    I’ll wait to pick up CBs and more DTs in UDFA to fill our final roster spot or compete for the practice squad.

    Also, when it comes to ILB, TE, OC and NT .. I have backup plans in Jason Cabinda ILB, Ryan Izzo, Khalil Mckenzie NT, and Brian Allen OC

    #83790
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    alyoshamucci wrote

    Guess we don’t need a corner high anymore … I’m doing this in 2 sections … top 5 and dart board …

    I think we resign Watkins.

    Top 5

    1) Harold Landry Edge… smooth movement skills, 4.6 40 … burst, bend and flatten to the QB. I think he’s probably a better overall player than Vic Beasley was coming out but the higher profile athletes are marginalizing his ability. I was hoping he wouldn’t come out last year so we’d have a shot at him this year. Backup plan: Lorenzo Carter
    We may even be able to trade down here and still get him or Carter or Key.

    3) Tim Settle NT. Rough combine will have him slide. Great. He’s a nose tackle. I need him to “not move” better than he “moves.”

    4) Will Clapp OC. Center and OG that can backup a year if needed.

    4) Micah Kiser ILB … signal caller and “heart of the defense” kinda guy that should go higher … but the position has a lot of talent this year.

    Dart Board My guess is that these will be used to get picks in 19′ or to move up in this draft … but since they’re here, I’ll use them.

    6) Durham Smythe TE … bad combine, high talent at the position, he slides.

    6) Joe Noteboom DT Kinda pedestrian but could be a decent RT and finish the game at OLT in a pinch.

    6) Travon Young rOLB This guy gets no love, no idea why.

    6) Godwin Iqwebuike S Liked him for years, tested better than I thought.

    6) Daurice Fountain WR Put on a show at the East West game and got no combine invite.

    I’ll wait to pick up CBs and more DTs in UDFA to fill our final roster spot or compete for the practice squad.

    Also, when it comes to ILB, TE, OC and NT .. I have backup plans in Jason Cabinda ILB, Ryan Izzo, Khalil Mckenzie NT, and Brian Allen OC

    i like landry. he looks a little pumped up. his playing weight is probably closer to 240 pounds, but von miller doesn’t look all that big either. but then. landry is just a tick below miller in terms of explosion and quickness. rams really need to hit on edge rusher. i don’t think the secondary can reach peak powers without an awesome pass rush.

    i like tim settle. i don’t know that he lasts until the third round. i really doubt it from what i read. he seems highly regarded, and i doubt teams take his combine performance too seriously.

    i really like noteboom from what i’ve read as well as his combine performance. no way he lasts until the sixth. i don’t think he even lasts until the third. but if he does, i would think the rams would pounce on that.

    • This reply was modified 6 years, 9 months ago by Avatar photoInvaderRam.
    #83792
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    i like landry. he looks a little pumped up. his playing weight is probably closer to 240 pounds, but von miller doesn’t look all that big either. but then. landry is just a tick below miller in terms of explosion and quickness. rams really need to hit on edge rusher. i don’t think the secondary can reach peak powers without an awesome pass rush.

    i like tim settle. i don’t know that he lasts until the third round. i really doubt it from what i read. he seems highly regarded, and i doubt teams take his combine performance too seriously.

    i really like noteboom from what i’ve read as well as his combine performance. no way he lasts until the sixth. i don’t think he even lasts until the third. but if he does, i would think the rams would pounce on that.

    #83881
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Daniel Jeremiah’s top 50 prospects for 2018 NFL Draft 2.0

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000919918/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft-20?campaign=tw-nn–sf184231381-sf184231381&sf184231381=1&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

    Now that the 2018 NFL Scouting Combine is in the rearview mirror, I’ve updated my ranking of the top 50 prospects in this year’s draft. My top two players remain the same — Penn State’s Saquon Barkley (No. 1) and Notre Dame’s Quenton Nelson (No. 2) — but the movement begins once we get past them on the list. Several defensive players, including Georgia’s Roquan Smith and Alabama’s Da’Ron Payne, are making a big move up the board. There are also seven players in this installment of the top 50 that weren’t on my initial list in January. The changes to this list are based mainly on my review of their combine workout, health and more tape work.

    RANK
    1
    Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
    Barkley is one of the most dynamic running backs to enter the NFL in the last decade. He’s built like a brick house, with an extremely thick/muscular lower body. On inside runs, he’s quick to press the line of scrimmage before stopping, sorting and then exploding through the hole. When he decides to bounce the ball outside, Barkley has an incredible lateral burst. He’s at his best on stretch runs. When he puts his foot in the ground and drives upfield, his suddenness is exceptional. He rarely drops his shoulder on contact, but his lower-body strength allows him to power through tacklers, and he also possesses a violent stiff arm. He has elite home-run speed and can make defenders miss at the second and third level without gearing down. Barkley’s a versatile weapon in the passing game, capable of splitting out wide and running receiver routes with ease. He has natural hands. He’s also reliable in pass protection, displaying both awareness and willingness. Overall, Barkley is capable of becoming the best player at his position very early in his NFL career.
    RANK
    2
    Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
    Nelson lined up at left guard for the Irish this past season and that is where he projects at the next level. He has a thick, hulking build — and he’s the nastiest offensive line prospect I’ve ever evaluated. In the run game, he is quick out of his stance and has the ability to completely wash opposing players down the line of scrimmage. He rolls his hips on contact, locks on with a powerful grip and doesn’t let up until he’s finished the job. Nelson is very effective when he works up to the second level on combo blocks and pulls. He can adjust in space and he blocks through the whistle consistently. In pass protection, Nelson possesses an immediate anchor vs. power rushers and effortlessly handles twists and stunts. Overall, Nelson has all of the tools to be the best run blocker in the NFL and he’ll be reliable in pass protection. He’s the easiest player to evaluate in this draft class.
    RANK
    3
    Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State 1
    Chubb has ideal size, strength and instincts. He primarily lines up with his hand down, but did stand up at times for the Wolfpack. As a pass rusher, he has a good get-off, but he is an outstanding technician with his hands. He wins with rip moves, swipe moves and a powerful bull rush. He can bend and wrap the edge. Chubb’s motor never stops. His ability to finish is outstanding and it’s reflected in his production. He was asked to drop into coverage some, and while he’s serviceable in this capacity, he’s best served moving forward, not backward. Against the run, he shocks blockers with his hands. He can locate the ball and close ground quickly. He dominates tight ends. Overall, Chubb has a natural feel as a pass rusher and should be a double-digit sack artist very early in his career.
    RANK
    4
    Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State 4
    Ward is an undersized cornerback (5-foot-10, 191 pounds, per school measurements) with excellent quickness, toughness and ball skills. In press coverage, he is patient and he’ll catch and re-route before settling on the receivers and mirroring down the field. In off coverage, he is a fluid mover and explodes out of his plant to drive on the football. He is very twitched up. Ward’s ball awareness is excellent — he can locate and high-point the ball down the field. His lack of size does show up on occasion vs. taller opponents, but overall, he plays much bigger than his height. He’s very aggressive in run support and has some snap on contact as a tackler. At the end of the day, Ward might lack ideal size, but he is a very skilled player and I love his competitiveness. He reminds me of a young Adam Jones.
    RANK
    5
    Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech 2
    Edmunds has a unique blend of size, length and athleticism. He primarily lines up off the line of scrimmage, but does get some work rushing off the edge. Against the run, he is quick to key, fill and finish as a tackler. He has rare lateral range and collects tackles from sideline to sideline. The former Hokie flashes the ability to shoot his hands and play off blocks, but this is one area where he can improve. Against the pass, he easily mirrors running backs and tight ends; there are even examples of him matching up and redirecting vs. slot receivers. He offers tremendous upside as an edge rusher, where he can dip/rip and bend around the edge. Overall, Edmunds has All-Pro ability. His upside is outrageous.
    RANK
    6
    Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama 1
    Fitzpatrick is an outstanding playmaker who possesses the versatility to play every position in the secondary. He primarily lined up as the nickel this past season, but he played cornerback as well as safety in previous campaigns. He’s at his best when allowed to float and keep his eyes on the quarterback. He has outstanding instincts, anticipation and ball skills. In man coverage, he has the size and speed to match up with both the big/physical pass-catchers as well as the smaller/quicker wideouts. He does have some hip tightness when he changes direction, but he recovers quickly because of his explosiveness. Against the run, he’s aggressive to attack the line of scrimmage and is a very dependable tackler in space. He’s an outstanding blitzer, displaying timing and burst. I love the energy and enthusiasm he brings to the defense. Overall, I see Fitzpatrick as a dynamic safety on run downs and a playmaking nickel on passing downs. He’s a bigger version of Tyrann Mathieu and I think he will make a similar impact in the league.
    RANK
    7
    Sam Darnold, QB, USC 1
    Darnold has a thick/sturdy frame and the desired height for the position. He operated in the shotgun in the Trojans’ offense. He has quick feet in his setup and throws from a wide base. He has a long, loopy throwing motion, but it’s actually very quick and explosive — and he has shown the ability to tighten it up at times. He has very quick eyes to work through progressions and throws with excellent anticipation. He’s adept at changing ball speed and ball flight. He has enough velocity to fit balls into tight windows. Once he improves his weight transfer from his back foot to his front foot, he will see an uptick in accuracy and velocity. Darnold is a very nifty athlete, capable of escaping free rushers and creating explosive plays downfield. He’s also a very competitive runner who fights for extra yards. His biggest issue has been his propensity to fumble the ball. He needs to do a better job of keeping both hands on the ball in the pocket and covering the ball up once he takes off. Overall, Darnold has some areas to clean up, but I love his size, competitiveness and ability to make plays on and off schedule.
    RANK
    8
    Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA 1
    Rosen has ideal height/weight for his position, although he does have a narrow frame. He’s the best pure passer in the draft. Rosen is precise in his drop and throws from a firm platform. He has a sharp, quick release and throws a majestic ball. He’s at his best in rhythm/on-time throws. His anticipation is excellent, as is his ball placement. He has plenty of velocity to make every throw. Issues arise when he’s under duress. He struggles to create on his own and his accuracy suffers when he’s forced off his original launch point. When a lane opens up, he will pick up the free yards with his feet, but he needs to improve his ability to escape when pressured. Durability is also a concern. Overall, I think Rosen is ready to play right away, but he needs to continue to develop his off-script skills.
    RANK
    9
    Derwin James, S, Florida State 2
    James is a versatile talent with exceptional size, speed and physicality. He lined up all over the field for the Seminoles. He took snaps at both safety spots, nickel cornerback, sub-package linebacker and was asked to rush from the outside linebacker position on occasion during his collegiate career. In my opinion, he’s more valuable when he plays closer to the line of scrimmage. He excels covering backs and tight ends and is a dynamic blitzer. When he lines up as the deep safety, he lacks ideal anticipation and needs to improve his angles to the alley in run support. He doesn’t have a ton of ball production, but that will improve once he settles into a more defined role. When he’s aligned in the box, he is quick to key/read against the run; he explodes to and through ball carriers. His lateral range is outstanding and he makes a lot of plays from the back side. To see his game speed, watch him run down Lamar Jackson in the Louisville contest. Overall, I see James as a box safety or weak-side linebacker at the next level.
    RANK
    10
    Vita Vea, DT, Washington 1
    Vea is a massive defensive tackle prospect with remarkable power, quickness and agility. He’s a dominant run defender, routinely resetting the line of scrimmage against both individual blockers and double-teams. He’s quick to shoot his hands, latch on and toss opposing blockers before quickly pursuing the football. He has rare lateral range for a 340-pound defender. He also flashes the ability to use his quickness to split gaps and create negative plays. As a pass rusher, he has a nasty slap/swim move. He can roll his hips and generate pocket push with his power. There are times where he plays too tall and consequently gets controlled. That can be improved. Overall, Vea is a more athletic version of Haloti Ngata and should quickly emerge as a Pro Bowl player.
    RANK
    11
    Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia 8
    Smith is an undersized inside linebacker with excellent instincts and range. Against inside runs, he uses his quickness to beat blockers to spots and is a firm, chest-up tackler. He does need to improve his hand usage because once blockers get into him, he struggles to free himself. He’s at his best against perimeter runs. Smith brings outstanding recognition and covers ground quickly. I believe he projects best as a 4-3 WLB where he would be able to use his speed to run-and-chase without having to mix it up inside. Against the pass, he has the speed and agility to cover RBs and TEs. He’s an excellent blitzer. Smith might lack the ideal bulk, but he’s a playmaker against both the run and pass.
    RANK
    12
    Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA 2
    Davenport is a raw edge rusher with outstanding size, length and explosiveness. He aligned in a two-point stance for UTSA but could easily play with his hand in the ground as a 4-3 defensive end at the next level. As a pass rusher, he has a very quick first step and flashes the power to bull through tight ends and offensive tackles. He doesn’t always have a game plan and that will lead to him stalling out if he doesn’t win early in the down. His ability to bend and wrap around the edge is very impressive for his size. He’s a little segmented right now, but once he gets his feet and hands to work together, he will emerge as a double-digit sack artist. In the run game, he dominates tight ends at the point of attack. His effort and speed from the back side is outstanding. Overall, Davenport isn’t a finished product, but I’m bullish on his future because of his rare size, athleticism and effort.
    RANK
    13
    Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
    Mayfield lacks the ideal height for the quarterback position, but he has a muscled-up/square build similar to Russell Wilson. He operated in the shotgun for the Sooners. He has a unique setup: He’s very frenetic, but he’s consistently accurate despite throwing from a variety of platforms and arm angles. He generates a lot of torque from his lower body. You need to see him play in person to fully appreciate the way the ball jumps out of his hand. His offensive line did a nice job of keeping him clean at OU, but when pressured, he showed the ability to extend plays while keeping his eyes down the field. He’s accurate on the move and while he lacks top speed, he is very effective on designed QB runs. The biggest challenge in his evaluation involves the lack of tight-window throws he’s had to make. It will take some time for him to adjust to the lack of space at the next level. There are some questions about his maturity on and off the field. Long story short, Mayfield might lack ideal size, but I love his accuracy, playmaking skills and toughness. He has the tools to be a quality NFL starting quarterback early in his career.
    RANK
    14
    Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
    Allen has ideal size, arm strength and mobility. At Wyoming, he split time underneath and in the shotgun. He has quick feet in his setup and a smooth, fluid release. He’s at his best driving the ball to the outside. He generates outrageous velocity and can squeeze the ball into very tight windows. He must improve on touch throws, but he has shown the ability to change ball speed and throw with loft. He needs to throw with more anticipation and there are times where he really locks onto his initial read, which can lead to pass breakups and turnovers. While he has room to improve on his overall ball placement, there were numerous dropped balls by his receivers in every game I studied. Allen’s combination of athleticism and strength allows him to avoid free rushers and shake off tacklers. He’s an aggressive runner and he’s been effective on designed QB runs as well as scrambles. Allen isn’t a finished product, but he offers unlimited upside, provided his drafting team exercises patience.
    RANK
    15
    Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama 9
    Payne is a powerful, run-stuffing defensive tackle with pass-rush upside. Against the run, he launches out of his stance and quickly shoots his hands to generate knock-back against single blocks. He will also use a quick slap/swim to disrupt. He holds up well vs. double-teams and has tremendous lateral range. As a pass rusher, he has a quick get-off, but he needs to develop a plan. Most of his pressure is the result of his swim move. He needs to work on counter moves. His effort is excellent. Overall, Payne is built to dominate on run downs right now. He has the athletic ability and power to emerge as a much better pass rusher in the near future. He helped himself at the NFL Scouting Combine.
    RANK
    16
    Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville 7
    Alexander is a tough, instinctive cornerback prospect. He spent the majority of his time on the outside at Louisville, but he did take a few reps at the nickel spot. He’s excellent in press coverage. He consistently re-routes his opponent with a quick two-hand jam. He has a little stiffness when he opens up, but he’s rarely out of position underneath or down the field. From off coverage, he has a choppy pedal, but he boasts an excellent burst out of his plant and drive. His route recognition, throw anticipation and ball awareness are elite. He collected several pass breakups in every game I studied. He’s very willing in run support and provides some big hits. Overall, Alexander lacks ideal fluidity, but I love his instincts, swagger and ball skills.
    RANK
    17
    Derrius Guice, RB, LSU 2
    Guice is a very shifty running back with excellent quickness and power. He has a thick/square build and runs with a very low pad level. On inside runs, he likes to press the hole and pause before using a jump-cut. Once he gets north and south, Guice seeks out second-level defenders and lowers his shoulder on contact. He has excellent contact balance. He doesn’t have elite top speed, but his short-area quickness is outstanding. He’s effective on perimeter runs, but he’s more natural running inside. He was underutilized in the passing game at LSU, but he displayed adequate ball skills. He needs to be more firm in pass protection. Overall, Guice has a nice blend of power and quickness. He’s built to carry a heavy workload at the next level.
    RANK
    18
    Mike Hughes, CB, UCF 2
    Hughes is a fluid, agile cornerback prospect with the versatility to play inside or outside. He has good size and excels in press coverage, where he incorporates a two-hand jam and rarely allows a free release. He has very quick feet. He redirects and mirrors opponents with ease. From off coverage, Hughes has a fluid pedal and shows some pop out of his plant/drive. He’s rarely out of phase in coverage, but when he is, he has the speed to recover. His ball awareness is excellent. He isn’t a physical tackler, but he goes low and gets the ball carrier on the ground. Hughes did have an off-the-field issue at his previous school (North Carolina). Overall, Hughes is an outstanding cover cornerback and he’s ready to start right away at the next level.
    RANK
    19
    Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama 8
    Evans is a versatile, playmaking linebacker. He moved all over the field in the Alabama defense. He aligned off the ball in the middle of the defense, stood up outside and even occasionally put his hand in the ground as a defensive end in pass-rush situations. Against the run, he’s a tick late to key/read, but once he makes up his mind, he closes in a hurry. He runs right through blockers and if he doesn’t make the tackle, he creates a pileup to slow down the ball carrier. He has outstanding speed to range sideline to sideline. He will miss an occasional tackle in space because he rarely breaks down, instead looking for the big hit. In coverage, he can easily mirror tight ends and backs. He will even match up in the slot at times. He isn’t a polished pass rusher, but he can win with pure speed and effort. Overall, Evans is a tone-setter on defense and his versatility is a huge asset.
    RANK
    20
    Ronald Jones II, RB, USC 8
    Jones is one of the most explosive players in the draft. He’s similar to Jamaal Charles in size and style. On inside runs, he’s very aggressive in attacking the line of scrimmage and can avoid defenders in tight quarters. He has tackle-breaking power as a result of his lower-leg drive and he mixes in a violent stiff arm. He has a good feel for the cutback lane and displays exceptional lateral burst. On outside runs, he easily gets to the perimeter and is elusive in space. Once he gets a step, Jones has elite breakaway speed. He has improved as both a receiver and blocker. He fought the ball as a sophomore, but was more comfortable as a pass-catcher this fall. He is aware in pass pro, but still gets caught on his heels at times. Overall, Jones is a threat to score every time he touches the ball and I love his toughness and upside in the passing game.
    RANK
    21
    Connor Williams, OT, Texas 4
    Williams lined up at left tackle for the Longhorns and that is where I’m projecting him to play at the next level. He has excellent height/bulk for the position and average length. In the passing game, he’s fluid out of his stance. He possesses the foot quickness to kick out and cover up speed rushers. He’s a very easy mover and plays with excellent knee bend. He has a sharp punch, but occasionally, he is late to shoot his hands and allows defenders to get into his chest. In the run game, he can latch and generate movement at the point of attack. However, he gets overaggressive at times, lunging and whiffing. He is very athletic working up to the second level. Overall, Williams didn’t play as well last fall (he also missed significant time with injury) as he did the previous season, but I still view him as a quality starting NFL tackle.
    RANK
    22
    Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
    Ridley is a lean, explosive receiver who lined up both outside and in the slot for Alabama. He uses a variety of releases to escape press coverage and gets up to top speed in a hurry. He’s an excellent route runner. He accelerates into the break point before snapping off and generating separation. He has strong hands to pluck low balls and tracks the deep ball naturally. Ridley is not a physical, 50-50-ball type of player — his game is more about speed and quickness than strength and power. He’s slithery after the catch and uses his speed to create chunk plays after short completions. His production was average, but that is the fault of the offense and quarterback. Overall, Ridley is more than a home-run hitter and I believe he’ll be a top-tier No. 2 wideout at the next level.
    RANK
    23
    James Daniels, C, Iowa 2
    Daniels is a very athletic and technically proficient center. In the run game, he’s extremely quick and effective on reach blocks and second-level blocks. I’m amazed by his ability to stay attached with his hands while he re-works his foot positioning. In pass pro, he plays with outstanding knee bend and balance. He shoots his hands quickly and can anchor against power as well as redirect vs. counters. He’s very aware. Daniels is one of the best center prospects I’ve evaluated in the last five years.
    RANK
    24
    Taven Bryan, DT, Florida 2
    Bryan is a very athletic, twitched-up defensive tackle. As a pass rusher, he has an excellent get-off. He launches out of his stance and flashes an impressive push/pull move to generate pressure. When he has proper hand placement, he can push the pocket with outstanding power. He does needs to add more hand moves to his arsenal, but he has the raw tools to develop into an outstanding interior pass rusher at the next level. Bryan is very inconsistent against the run. He plays too high, struggles to resist pressure on angle blocks and loses sight of the ball. He’s at his best when slanting and shooting gaps. Overall, Bryan isn’t a finished product, but he has Pro Bowl-caliber traits and could emerge as a premier interior pass rusher.
    RANK
    25
    Will Hernandez, OG, UTEP NR
    Hernandez has average height and a very thick/square build for the position. He lines up at left guard for the Miners and completely dominates in the run game. He is quick out of his stance and uses his upper strength to torque and dump defenders at the point of attack. He does a nice job of re-working his hands to maintain inside position and maintain leverage. In pass protection, he has the power base to anchor bull rushers and surprising quickness to redirect vs. athletic defenders. He piles up some gnarly knockdowns when he’s uncovered. He’s always looking for extra work. Overall, Hernandez is a tempo setter in the run game and more than adequate in the passing game. He had a great Senior Bowl and combine.
    RANK
    26
    Sony Michel, RB, Georgia 2
    Michel is one of my favorite players in this entire draft class. He has a perfect build for the position and runs with a nice blend of power, quickness and elusiveness. On inside runs, he’s very loose/slithery and he runs with ideal pad level. He drops his shoulder on contact and generates space when none is available. He has enough juice to get to the perimeter, and while he lacks home-run speed, he’s rarely caught from behind. In the passing game, he runs crisp routes and catches the ball smoothly. He’s been very stout in pass protection. Overall, Michel reminds me a lot of Kareem Hunt and I think he’s capable of making a similar impact at the next level.
    RANK
    27
    Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa 9
    Jackson has good size for the position and I love his versatility to play inside and outside. He was deployed in a variety of coverages in Iowa’s scheme and was effective in all of them. In press coverage, he isn’t physical, but he’s very fluid to open up and mirror. I have some concerns about his deep speed, but he wasn’t really challenged in the games I studied. He is at his best in zone coverage, where he sees through the wideout to the quarterback. He’s quick to identify routes, break on the ball and finish. He has rare ball skills, which creates some spectacular picks. He’s an effective wrap/drag tackler in the run game. Overall, Jackson might lack ideal twitch and deep speed, but his combination of size and ball skills is outstanding. He is a plug-and-play starter.
    RANK
    28
    Donte Jackson, CB, LSU 8
    Jackson is an undersized cornerback with rare twitch and make-up speed. LSU moved him all over the field in its scheme. He played inside, outside and even took some reps at safety. In press coverage, he’s patient, but I’d like to see him be more physical with his hands at the line of scrimmage. He usually plays out of a quarter turn (butt toward the sideline). He uses his quickness and speed to mirror wideouts underneath and down the field. He rarely gets caught out of position, but when he does, he has the speed to recover. From off coverage, he has a quick pedal and is a very easy/fluid mover. His instincts and ball skills are good but not great. He’s a willing tackler, but he’s not ultra-aggressive in run support. Overall, Jackson doesn’t make a ton of plays, but I believe his best football is ahead of him. He’s a special athlete.
    RANK
    29
    Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M
    Kirk is a compact, muscled-up WR. He’s built like a running back and plays in the slot as well as outside. He’s an exceptional route runner. He understands how to leverage defensive backs, sell double-moves and cleanly enter/exit the break point. He has strong hands and tracks the ball smoothly. He does a lot of work in the middle of the field and doesn’t let the heavy traffic affect his concentration. I love his strength, elusiveness and will after the catch. Kirk reminds me a lot of Golden Tate coming out of Notre Dame, and I believe he can have similar success.
    RANK
    30
    Jessie Bates, S, Wake Forest NR
    Bates is a tall, lean safety for the Demon Deacons. He has outstanding range, instincts and ball skills from the deep middle and he flashed the ability to match up in the slot. He’s a very fluid athlete and has plenty of makeup speed if he’s caught out of position. Against the run, he’s quick to key/read and fill the alley. He is a low, wrap/drag tackler and he does have some misses on tape. His lack of strength shows up at times. Overall, Bates is a very athletic middle-of-the-field defender and he has the versatility to cover in the slot. He should quickly emerge as a Pro Bowl-caliber player.
    RANK
    31
    Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina 3
    Hurst is a former pro baseball player who walked on as a tight end for the Gamecocks. He has excellent size, speed and ball skills. He was primarily used as a move tight end. As a route runner, he is very smooth and quickly builds speed. At South Carolina, he wasn’t asked to run a lot of traditional option routes and work back to the quarterback. However, he excels on vertical routes and crossers. He tracks the ball smoothly and has a big catch radius. He received the ball quite a bit on tight end reverses and proved plenty capable of making defenders miss or out-running them to the corner. He’s more than willing as a run blocker and, while he lacks power, he does a nice job of shielding defenders. Hurst should be a Day 1 starter and has tremendous upside.
    RANK
    32
    Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State 8
    Vander Esch is a long, instinctive and fast inside linebacker. Against the run, he’s quick to key/read and aggressively shoot gaps. He does a good job sorting through the trash to find the ball. He flashes the ability to pop/separate from blockers, but at times, he’s too narrow and gets washed out. He has outstanding speed/range. He’s a highly productive tackler, but also produces a couple fly-by missed tackles in every game. He has ideal size/speed to mirror tight ends in coverage and he’s a productive blitzer. Vander Esch was one of the most productive players in the country this past season and should be an immediate starter at the next level.
    RANK
    33
    Harrison Phillips, DT, Stanford 1
    Phillips is a powerful defensive tackle with excellent production and a non-stop motor. He dominates against the run. He jolts blockers with a quick, explosive punch before locating the football and collecting tackles. He understands blocking schemes, routinely defeating double-teams with his quickness and awareness. His lateral range is exceptional and he never seems to tire out despite rarely coming off the field. As a pass rusher, he generates a steady push with his bull rush and flashes a quick slap/swim move. He needs to improve as a finisher. He has some ankle tightness and struggles to flatten out once he gets upfield. Phillips offers immediate value on run downs and I believe he’s going to improve as a pass rusher at the next level. He reminds me of Kyle Williams coming out of LSU.
    RANK
    34
    Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan 13
    Hurst is an undersized defensive tackle with exceptional quickness and awareness. Against the pass, he has elite get-off. He explodes off the snap and has a collection of effective hand moves to generate pressure. His bread-and-butter move is a quick swipe before wrapping around the blocker and exploding toward the quarterback. Against the run, he relies on his quickness to beat cut-off blocks and disrupt. Occasionally, he’ll get stuck on blocks and is moved out of the hole. His effort is excellent. Hurst is an ideal 3-technique and could emerge as one of the best interior pass rushers in the league. However, he was diagnosed with a heart condition at the NFL Scouting Combine and didn’t participate in drills.
    RANK
    35
    Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
    McGlinchey started at right tackle and left tackle during his collegiate career. He has outstanding size for the position. In the passing game, he has average quickness out of his stance but uses his length to keep his chest clean and anchor vs. bull rushers. He does get too narrow at times, which causes him to struggle vs. both speed and counter rushers. I think he’ll benefit from a move back to the right side. In the run game, he does a good job of getting underneath opponents and generating movement at the point of attack. He’s very aware vs. twists and stunts. McGlinchey had some games where he struggled (see: Miami), but he has all of the desired traits to emerge as a quality starting right tackle at the next level.
    RANK
    36
    Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado
    Oliver has excellent size, length and speed for the position. He’s at his best in press coverage. He shoots his hands and re-routes wide receivers before staying on their hip down the field. He has plenty of speed to carry vertical routes. From off coverage, he has some stiffness when he has to open up and change directions. He has good ball awareness down the field (see: pass breakup against UCLA). I love his aggressiveness and physicality in the running game. He fights through blocks and he’s a reliable tackler in space. Oliver has the ideal skill set to thrive as a press cornerback at the next level. He needs to improve his flexibility and transition movement in off coverage.
    RANK
    37
    Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia
    Wynn was an undersized left tackle for the Bulldogs; he projects as a starting guard at the next level. In the run game, he is sudden out of his stance and can roll his hips on contact, generating movement at the point of attack. His hand strength is outstanding. He’s very effective as a puller because of his ability to redirect and cover up linebackers in space. In pass protection, he keeps his hands tight and he’s a natural knee-bender. He will lunge and whiff on rare occasions, but he’s usually patient and stays on balance. He is very aware of blitzers (see: him vs. Minkah Fitzpatrick in the national title game). Wynn has some previous experience at guard and I believe he has Pro Bowl ability at that position.
    RANK
    38
    Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama
    Harrison is a hulking safety prospect with a nice blend of versatility, toughness and instincts. He moved around in the Alabama defense, aligning as the high safety at times while dropping down in the box, as well. In zone coverage, he’s quick to read his keys and flow to the ball. He has excellent range when he’s working in the deep half. When he’s in the box, he flies to the alley to collect tackles on quick throws to the perimeter. He isn’t as effective in man coverage. He has some lower-body stiffness and his change of direction is average. He’s excellent against the run. He attacks the line of scrimmage and breaks down before securing the tackle. He has a very high batting average as a tackler. Harrison is a very well-rounded safety and he’s ready to play right away.
    RANK
    39
    Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College
    Landry is an undersized edge rusher. At BC, he was deployed as a hand-in-the-ground defensive end and a stand-up outside linebacker. Against the pass, he lacks an elite get-off, but he has a variety of hand moves and bends really well coming off the corner. He’s very successful when he bends/rips/flattens to the quarterback. He also has the ability to widen and convert speed to power against opposing tackles. His effort is excellent. He was an outstanding finisher in 2016, but fell off of a few sacks in 2017. He’s inconsistent against the run. He flashes the quickness to cross the face of blockers and collect tackles, but once engaged, he struggles to get off blocks. He needs to get stronger. I see Landry as a fit for teams that employ a 3-4 defense and are looking for a pass-rush upgrade. He has some similarities to Dee Ford coming out of Auburn.
    RANK
    40
    Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon 2
    Crosby lined up at left tackle for the Ducks. He has a nice blend of size, power and instincts. In the passing game, he lacks upper-tier quickness, but he does a nice job of staying square, shooting his hands and steering opponents. He will have some trouble with elite speed rushers, but I believe he’ll benefit from a move to the right side. I love what he brings in the run game. He consistently generates movement on down blocks and he’s a nasty finisher. He also takes good angles when working up to the second level before latching and controlling linebackers. I wish he were a little more athletic, but he has all of the skills to be a solid starting right tackle.
    RANK
    41
    Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville 2
    Jackson has been the most dynamic playmaker in college football for the last two seasons, operating out of the shotgun in the Cardinals’ offense. He has a lean, narrow frame. He has quick feet in his setup and he bounces on his toes once he gets to the top of his drop. He throws with a very narrow base. He generates tremendous velocity despite flipping the ball and failing to generate any power or torque from his lower half. He’s more accurate/consistent on in-breaking routes and over-the-top touch throws. His accuracy suffers when he has to drive the ball outside the numbers. He is too stiff on his front leg and the ball sails on him. His pocket presence has improved over the last year and he excels avoiding unblocked rushers. He’s the most electric runner at the position to enter the NFL in the last decade. On designed QB runs, he’s very elusive and slithery. Overall, Jackson needs time to work out some mechanical issues, but his playmaking ability is special.
    RANK
    42
    B.J. Hill, DT, N.C. State NR
    Hill lines up at defensive tackle for the Wolfpack. He has broad shoulders and a thick, muscular frame for the position. Against the run, he plays with balance and power at the point of attack and flashes the quickness to penetrate/disrupt. His effort to chase plays is excellent. As a pass rusher, he has a quick slap/rip move and he generates a lot of pressures. He lacks sack production, but I believe that will come in time. Overall, Hill is very athletic and his best football is ahead of him.
    RANK
    43
    Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State 4
    Goedert has ideal size, ball skills and toughness for the position. At South Dakota State, he lined up in-line, flexed in the slot or split out wide. In the passing game, he builds speed as a route runner and has subtle quickness at the top of his routes. He understands how to keep defenders on his back and has strong reliable hands. He lacks big-time burst after the catch but he runs hard and is tough to bring down. In the run game, he effectively shields defenders over his nose and can generate some movement on down blocks. Goedert isn’t an electric playmaker, but he’s dependable in every facet of the position.
    RANK
    44
    Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia 5
    Chubb is a powerfully built running back. He’s at his best running between the tackles. He has excellent vision. He runs with a high pad level, but he has incredible contact balance. Defenders routinely bounce off him in the hole and he always fights for extra yards. On perimeter runs, he doesn’t bring the ideal suddenness to get the corner, but once he gets north/south, he’s a load to bring down. He lacks home-run speed, but he racks up a lot of doubles. In the passing game, he has strong/reliable hands and he’s dependable in limited pass-protection opportunities. Chubb reminds me of Jonathan Stewart coming out of college, but he doesn’t quite have the same burst. However, he did help himself with an impressive combine performance.
    RANK
    45
    Brian O’Neill, OT, Pitt 1
    O’Neill is a very intriguing left tackle prospect. The former tight end has good size and outstanding quickness. In the passing game, he’s very quick out of his stance. He displays the ability to kick out wide and cover up speed rushers. When he shoots his hands on time, he can steer and control defenders. He needs to improve his knee bend/leverage. If defenders get into his chest, he struggles to sink his weight and settle vs. power rushers. He’s very aware vs. twists and blitzers. In the run game, he is at his best on pulls and combo blocks. His quickness is his best asset. Pitt threw him a couple balls in the games I watched and he showed off his speed/athleticism. O’Neill needs to get stronger and improve his knee-bend, but he should emerge as a starting left tackle.
    RANK
    46
    D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland NR
    Moore is a thick, muscled-up wideout with outstanding toughness, burst and savvy. He lines up both outside and in the slot for the Terrapins. He powers through press coverage and understands how to set up defenders before snapping off his route. He collects a lot of quick hitters in this offense, but he flashes the ability to work down the seam as well as over the top. He tracks the ball naturally. He can adjust and finish on poor throws. He’s at his best after the catch. Moore routinely breaks tackles, makes defenders miss or runs away from them. His competitiveness is off the charts. I won’t be surprised if Moore ends up being the best receiver in this draft class.
    RANK
    47
    Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State NR
    Penny has an ideal blend of size, speed and production. He gets a lot of work in the SDSU offense and he’s proven he can carry a heavy load. On inside runs, he has excellent vision. While he doesn’t often punish defenders, he does absorb contact and generate extra yards. He has enough speed to get to the perimeter, and once in the open field, he can find a second gear to go the distance. He doesn’t offer a lot of wiggle, but he does possess a firm stiff arm. He can catch the ball naturally, but he isn’t used much in pass protection and will need some time to develop in that area. He has been ultra-productive as a kickoff returner throughout his career.
    RANK
    48
    Austin Corbett, OG, Nevada NR
    Corbett lines up at left tackle for the Wolfpack. I’m projecting him to slide inside to guard at the next level. In pass protection, he has a strong punch, firm base and excellent awareness. He keeps his hands in tight and once he latches on, he can easily steer and control defenders. He will occasionally struggle to kick out and cover up speed rushers. That’s why the move inside will help his stock. In the run game, he is quick off the ball and can roll his hips on contact to generate movement. He will need a little time to transition to a pro-style offense, but I foresee him becoming a high-quality interior starter very early in his career.
    RANK
    49
    Billy Price, C, Ohio State 19
    Price was a four-year starter for the Buckeyes. He played both guard and center during his career. He was a very dominant run blocker while lining up at center in 2017. He has quick feet and a very powerful base. He latches on and flashes the upper torque to rag-doll opposing defenders. He isn’t a great knee-bender, but once he gets his hands on you, he stays attached. He does struggle with balance at the second level. He gets overly aggressive and ends up on the ground too often. In pass protection, he can anchor easily against power rushers and he’s very aware vs. twists and stunts. I love his strength, toughness and position flexibility. He’s not an elite athlete, but he’s a Day 1 starter at either guard or center. He did suffer a pectoral injury while performing in the bench press at the NFL Scouting Combine and was unable to work out.
    RANK
    50
    Nathan Shepherd, DT, Fort Hays State NR
    Shepherd is a very disruptive interior defensive lineman. He’s a chiseled 315 pounds and physically dominates in every tape I’ve studied. Against the pass, he plays a little high, but he uses his foot quickness and upper-body strength to generate a lot of pressure. He has tremendous raw power. Against the run, he can generate knock-back at the point of attack and he has the speed/athleticism to make plays from the backside. He needs to improve his overall awareness. He loses sight of the ball too often. Overall, Shepherd is raw, but he has outstanding upside as a three-down interior defender.
    Falling out: Oklahoma OT Orlando Brown (31), LSU LB Arden Key (33), Ohio State DE Sam Hubbard (41), SMU WR Courtland Sutton (45), Washington WR Dante Pettis (46), Mississippi State OT Martinas Rankin (48), Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson (50).

    #83882
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama 8
    Evans is a versatile, playmaking linebacker. He moved all over the field in the Alabama defense. He aligned off the ball in the middle of the defense, stood up outside and even occasionally put his hand in the ground as a defensive end in pass-rush situations. Against the run, he’s a tick late to key/read, but once he makes up his mind, he closes in a hurry. He runs right through blockers and if he doesn’t make the tackle, he creates a pileup to slow down the ball carrier. He has outstanding speed to range sideline to sideline. He will miss an occasional tackle in space because he rarely breaks down, instead looking for the big hit. In coverage, he can easily mirror tight ends and backs. He will even match up in the slot at times. He isn’t a polished pass rusher, but he can win with pure speed and effort. Overall, Evans is a tone-setter on defense and his versatility is a huge asset.

    this is what intrigues me about evans. i think vander esch has that potential too as does edmunds.

    edmunds is gone in the top 10 i have to think. that leaves evans vs vander esch.

    i don’t know which way i’d go. today i’d go evans. he not only has the potential to do it all. he HAS done it all on that alabama defense. only problem is athletically he doesn’t pop out at me, and i fear that he may be a product of having great talent around him. i don’t know. but he’d give the defense a lot of options.

    now if landry is still available at 23. i think i take him over the previous two. his pass rushing potential is off the charts. he might be less versatile, but i don’t care. his pass rushing abilities are off the charts. then you draft the inside linebacker in the later rounds. maybe josey jewell. or maybe you already got the guy on your team in littleton.

    but a landry and donald combo with complimentary pieces around those 2? wow. they should get a lot of sacks with that secondary playing behind them. then they need a nose tackle.

    but that’s

    brockers nt donald
    ebukam ilb barron landry
    peters joyner johnson talib

    landry and donald on the same side could be devastating.

    #83905
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    rams meet with vea

    Report: Rams meet with stud NT Vita Vea at Washington pro day

    this has me a little excited. maybe by some miracle he slips into the bottom half of the first round.

    that’d be a helluva defensive line.

    #83916
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    i think they’d have to trade up to draft vea.

    and it’d probably require a future second rounder at the very least.

    but then. on paper at least. they’d have a top notch dline to go with a top notch secondary. on paper at least.

    then potentially you’d have this.

    brockers vea donald

    ebukam littleton barron rolb

    peters joyner johnson talib

    rolb would be filled perhaps by barwin. and the third round draft pick. but the push that dline would create. the number of blockers that beefy line would occupy…

    not to mention the run defense. i might even feel for offenses trying to run on that front seven.

    • This reply was modified 6 years, 9 months ago by Avatar photoInvaderRam.
    #83928
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    here’s a piece on rashaan evans. vea’s just a pipe dream, but i’m really warming up on evans. i like his versatility. i think his intangibles are off the charts. lots of leadership potential there. tough and intelligent. competitive.

    https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/3/4/17076830/rashaan-evans-alabama-linebacker-nfl-draft-combine-2018

    the article has some animated gifs.

    “I’ve always told each team that I meet with, I always want them to understand that I’m an unselfish player,” Evans says. “Whatever it is that you need me to do, I can do it, and I can do it at a high level and do it with an IQ to actually play it. That’s the No. 1 thing I always want teams to take into account whenever they’re evaluating me.”

    #84169
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Bucky Brooks mock – LT Kolton Miller to the Rams

    Los Angeles Rams Mobile: Bucky Brooks Mock Draft: 2.0

    http://www.therams.com/videos/videos/Bucky-Brooks-Mock-Draft-20/89239acf-6d54-48f9-815b-999500bec692

    #84178
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    Bucky Brooks mock – LT Kolton Miller to the Rams

    Los Angeles Rams Mobile: Bucky Brooks Mock Draft: 2.0

    http://www.therams.com/videos/videos/Bucky-Brooks-Mock-Draft-20/89239acf-6d54-48f9-815b-999500bec692

    i don’t know if i’d agree with the pick. but i’d understand. and i wouldn’t necessarily be disappointed. cuz i think miller’s a good prospect at one of the most important positions in football.

    but guys who were picked after miller (in this mock).

    1. harold landry
    2. da’ron payne
    3. rashaan evans
    4. leighton vander esch

    that’d be tough for me to pass up on those 4 guys to pick a guy who ideally wouldn’t start for another year.

    #84206
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    The big mistake lots of NFL teams make in the draft, according to economists

    Joseph Stromberg

    [Old article:] Apr 30, 2015

    https://www.vox.com/2015/4/30/8516007/nfl-draft-economics

    In last year’s NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills traded up from the eighth pick to the fourth to take receiver Sammy Watkins. To do so, they gave up their first pick this year, 19th overall.

    Watkins has had a solid start to his career. But the receiver the Bills could’ve taken if they’d stayed put — Odell Beckham Jr. — was named Offensive Rookie of the Year and already looks to be a generational talent.

    TEAMS SHOULD NEVER TRADE UP — AND SHOULD TRADE DOWN WHENEVER THEY GET AN OFFER

    It’s always easy to pick apart draft decisions in retrospect. But this mistake was utterly predictable — and it remains a mistake whether Watkins ends up a better player than Beckham or not.

    A series of papers by economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler has shown that at any given position, historically, the odds of the top player picked (Watkins) being better than the third player picked (Beckham) is just 55 percent or so.

    “It’s basically a coin flip,” Massey, who serves as a draft consultant with several NFL teams, told me last year, “but teams are paying a great deal for the right to call which side of the coin.”

    Because teams just aren’t that good at evaluating a player’s chance of success, Massey and Thaler’s analysis says in the current trade market, teams are better off trading down whenever they get an offer — that is, trading one high pick for multiple lower ones, in order to diversify risk. But many teams, like the Bills, become overconfident in their evaluation of one particular player and do the opposite: they package several slightly lower picks for the right to take one player very early.

    Watch: The history of the NFL draft, explained in 2 minutes

    It’s just not worth it to trade up

    In their first paper, Massey and Thaler studied 1,078 draft pick trades made between 1990 and 2008. This let them determine the value teams got in return when they traded away each pick in the first five rounds of the draft:

    The most important thing about this graph: the curve is very, very sharp in the first round. That means teams think the very top picks are extremely valuable: the value of the 10th pick is only about half that of the first pick.

    Now, it’s worth pointing out that for years, most teams followed something called “the Chart,” which assigned values to each pick in the draft for trade purposes. Since 2008, many teams have smartly stopped treating the Chart as gospel, and the curve has become slightly less steep.

    But Massey says it still hasn’t flattened out to anything near where it should be, in terms of the actual value derived from the players picked. He and Thaler calculated this value based on the odds that the first player picked at any given position will perform better — in terms of the number of games he starts in his first five seasons — than the second player drafted at that position.

    TEAMS JUST AREN’T VERY GOOD AT FIGURING OUT WHO’S THE BEST PLAYER AT ANY POSITION

    Lots of teams, like the Bills, will trade up when they identify a player they prefer at a needed position: they need a wide receiver, and a few highly rated ones are available, but they trade up because they’re certain Sammy Watkins is the best. But the data says that teams just aren’t very good at figuring out when this is true.

    On average, the chance that first player will start more games than the second one picked at his position: 52 percent. Compared with the third player, it’s still only 55 percent, and compared with the fourth, it’s just 56 percent.

    These numbers suggest that moving up eight picks (the average distance between the first and second players at the same position) should cost a small amount, since you’re only increasing the odds of a getting a more productive player by 4 percent or so. But as the steep curve shows, teams pay a ton to move up, especially at the top of the draft.

    It really pays off to trade down

    Given that some teams, like the Bills, are irrationally willing to pay a lot to trade up, smart teams can reap huge benefits by trading down. Even staying put and drafting from your original spot, the researchers’ analysis shows, isn’t the best strategy.

    For each pick in the first round, Massey and Thaler calculated all of the different two-pick packages a team could’ve gotten by trading down, based on the historical data (a team with the first pick, for instance, could get the second and 181st picks, or the 14th and 15th picks, or any combination of picks in between that provide the same sum value).

    STAYING PUT AND DRAFTING AT YOUR ORIGINAL POSITION IS NOT THE BEST STRATEGY EITHER

    Then they calculated what teams have gotten out of these picks, on average, in terms of the number of starts a player picked at that spot has historically provided in his first five years, and the number of Pro Bowls he’s voted to. (They included Pro Bowls to counter the criticism that their analysis ignores the unique impact of superstar players only available in the first few picks.)

    Again, the data was unequivocal. On average, trading down and getting two players gave a team five more starts per season and slightly more total Pro Bowls.

    You could chalk this up to the simple fact that more players start more games, but it’s more than that. Even if you imagined that the team trading down could only keep the better one of the two players it drafted, it’d still get slightly more total starts and the same number of Pro Bowls. The truth is that teams are imperfect talent evaluators, so having two later picks is better than a single early one. It’s just risk diversification at work.

    Teams that trade down more often win more games
    The most straightforward piece of proof for all this is the fact that trading down correlates with more wins on the field.

    Massey and Thaler came to this conclusion by looking at the number of wins a team had in any given season between 1997 and 2008, and the total value of all picks they’d made in the previous four years (the amount of time, on average, for which a rookie is under contract).

    They found that one standard deviation in pick value translated to 1.5 more wins per season on the field. Sure, it’s a small sample size, and there’s a lot of chance and other factors built into the system, such as a coach’s strategy. But trading down correlates with a significant amount of victories, given that there are only 16 games in a season.

    So why don’t more NFL teams follow this advice?

    If all teams took note of these findings and corrected their behavior, the principles would no longer apply. Teams would be much less interested in trading up, so the lucrative market for trading down would evaporate.

    Why hasn’t this happened? One answer is a widely known psychological bias called the overconfidence effect. As people are given more information, the accuracy of their analysis often hits a ceiling, but their confidence in it continues to increase.

    This tendency has been demonstrated in all sorts of areas, from bettors picking horses to psychologists making diagnoses. It’s not hard to imagine that NFL general managers — who are given scouting reports on players that cover everything from their body fat percentage to their home life — fall victim to the same sort of overconfidence.

    “[TEAMS] FALL IN LOVE WITH PLAYERS, GET MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT IN THEIR ANALYSIS”

    “In my experience, teams always say they’re on board with [trading down] in January,” Massey said. “Then when April rolls around, and they’ve been preparing for the draft for a long time, they fall in love with players, get more and more confident in their analysis, and fall back into the same patterns.”

    There’s also the fact that the sports world as a whole tends to glamorize superstars — leading many to disproportionately attribute a 53-player roster’s success to one or two highly drafted players. For a struggling GM, it might seem easier to trade up and land a guaranteed superstar than to patiently fill a roster with competent players.

    The problem, though, is that there are no guaranteed superstars — and Thaler and Massey have found that, given a long enough time frame, no teams are any better at accurately evaluating prospects than others. Sure, a GM might hit a hot streak over the course of a few drafts, but long term they estimate that 95 to 100 percent of the difference in teams’ odds of striking gold with any one pick is driven by chance.

    So the key isn’t drafting better — it’s just drafting more.

    As Massey noted, there are a few teams out there following his philosophy. In a recent interview, Eric DeCosta — assistant GM of the perennially successful Baltimore Ravens — dropped a hint about the identity of one of them:

    We look at the draft as, in some respects, a luck-driven process. The more picks you have, the more chances you have to get a good player. When we look at teams that draft well, it’s not necessarily that they’re drafting better than anybody else. It seems to be that they have more picks. There’s definitely a correlation between the amount of picks and drafting good players.

    #84209
    Avatar photoAgamemnon
    Participant

    I have always believed, and still do, that trading into the top 10 is a big mistake. If it does seem to work, all that proves is you got lucky, not smart.

    Agamemnon

    #84220
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    I have always believed, and still do, that trading into the top 10 is a big mistake. If it does seem to work, all that proves is you got lucky, not smart.

    so basically try to accumulate as many draft picks as one possibly can.

    #84295
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    J.B. Long@JB_Long
    The run on quarterbacks at the top of this Draft is going to make the 23rd pick feel a lot more like a 15-20 for the Rams, with respect to their targets. And that’s assuming they stay put, which need not be the case.

    #84304
    PA Ram
    Participant

    I would not be shocked if the Rams trade down, actually. That may in fact be the best move this year unless there is a “can’t pass up guy” at their spot–OR if they can move up a few spots to get that guy. I have a lot of faith in their scouting and they can really fill in some depth and still find a starter or two.

    They seem to be at that spot of the draft this year where they could do that trade down and make out better in the long run.

    If they stay there and Landry falls to them, I’d take him.

    Otherwise if they can move up a little to take Vea, I’d do it for the right price but I feel that he will be long gone until they pick.

    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away. " Philip K. Dick

    #84307
    Avatar photoAgamemnon
    Participant

    Unless a player just drops to them, I expect Snead to trade down. I think he will try to get a LOT and an edge rusher with the first 2 picks.

    Agamemnon

    #84317
    Avatar photosnowman
    Participant

    Goff is our biggest asset on offense and I am also concerned about who is going to protect his blind side after Whitworth rides off into the sunset. In a pinch, we can start Easley, Brockers and Donald on defense with someone else on the outside, maybe Littleton or Fox or Longacre. I would not be upset if the Rams drafted an OT at #23. It would be like filling a hole before it gets to be a hole.

    Not sure how many teams run a 3-4 defense and how much demand that places on edge rushers and nose tackles. Maybe there is less competition for those kind of players that fit our defensive scheme and we can find good prospects in the third, fourth and fifth rounds. Could use those 6th rounders to move up if needed.

    #84326
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    Unless a player just drops to them, I expect Snead to trade down. I think he will try to get a LOT and an edge rusher with the first 2 picks.

    that’s what i thinking too. but there’s a strong possibility someone they really like falls.

    just read that okoronkwo came in for a visit. he should be available in the later rounds though.

    • This reply was modified 6 years, 9 months ago by Avatar photoInvaderRam.
    #84396
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    josh sweat ran a sub-7.00 second 3-cone drill at his pro day. that’s exactly the number i wanted to see.

    http://draftanalyst.com/pro-day-march-21-georgia-usc-boston-college

    On the other hand, pass rusher Josh Sweat continues to impress. Sweat clocked anywhere from 6.88 to 6.95 in the three-cone and looked good in both defensive line and linebacker drills. The linebacker drills were run by the Baltimore Ravens.

    this guy is a prototypical edge rusher. he’s got size (6’4″, 251 pounds). length (34 5/8″ arms). he’s explosive (4.53 40, 39.5″ vert, 124″ broad). the only thing i was wondering about was the agility. but if he ran a 6.9 3-cone, that answers it for me.

    i think the rams could trade down and still get this guy. or they might just want to grab him in the first. florida state apparently used him as a defensive end. might flourish as a stand up edge rusher.

    biggest concern is his knee, but he’s played 35 games the past three years since his knee injury.

    #84397
    Cal
    Participant

    Sweat has great work out numbers and that’s something that’s important to me when I look at prospects.

    But his youtubes and stats aren’t really impressive. Have you seen anything impressive on youtube for the guy? After watching just a little, I’d be disappointed if the Rams grabbed him in the first.

    Landry and obo Okoronkwo from Oklahoma are probably my favorite two edge rushers. Okoronkwo is smaller at 6’1″ 240 and has a slow 40 (4.74). He does have long arms (34.5) and good explosion numbers though. He put up 27 reps and had a 38 inch vertical at the combine. Then, put up an impressive 6.9 3 cone drill at the Oklahoma pro day.

    He only had like 8 sacks last year according to NFL.com’s profile, but he does some impressive work on the youtube videos I saw. Take a look at his Ohio State and Texas highlights.

    He also excelled at the Senior Bowl according to this guy. Les, of course, has liked Senior Bowl prospects in the past.

    Here’s the first thing I found about Obo at the senior bowl (It’s from a Seattle fan for all the Seahawk lovers here):
    Top 15 Senior Bowl standouts
    1) Ogbonnia Okoronkwo – EDGE | 6’1 ½” 243 lbs, 34 ½” arms

    Okoronkwo was the top Senior Bowl standout on defense this week, yet his phenomenal performance consistently flew under the radar. It began with him surpassing his listed height and weight at Oklahoma, along with the ridiculous arm measurement of 34.5 inches. The NFL Network crew couldn’t help but bring up his lack of size when mentioning him, but “Obo” was incredibly impactful all week. He terrorized offensive tackles with burst, quickness, explosion, and unique leverage, dominating 1-on-1’s and team drills. And once again, he was the most impressive defensive player in the game itself. Okoronkwo shined, posting 4 tackles, 2 (instant) sacks, a forced fumble, and several more QB pressures.

    I ambitiously graded Okoronkwo as a 1st round talent back in October, and he lived up to that billing this week. He consistently wreaked havoc in the backfield, highlighting his dynamic pass-rush repertoire. Obo is also an impact run defender (when lined up at LB) and more than holds his own in coverage. His combine athletic testing will be huge for his stock, and I expect him to perform great there as well. It’s easy to imagine the Seahawks being interested in a Bruce Irvin-type who can function as both a nickel DE and SAM linebacker. He’s criminally underrated right now since he’s only 6’1.5 inches tall, but he’s too talented to slip too far past the 1st round on draft day.

    • This reply was modified 6 years, 9 months ago by Cal.
    #84405
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    We need to get OLine in this draft. No way we can go two straight years of not drafting an OLineman. That is bad drafting practices. We got to get one early. even if we got to get one in round three. My wish is we can trade out of round 1, and pick up some picks draft our future LOT in round 2, plus pick up an extra late third to early fourth round pick.

    #84416
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    But his youtubes and stats aren’t really impressive. Have you seen anything impressive on youtube for the guy?

    no i haven’t. but the rams could trade down and get him.

    i read that fsu played him as a 4-3 de so he was a little out of position. a lot of people believe he’ll be better off as a stand up edge rusher.

    i like okoronkwo a lot and was pleased to see his 3-cone drill at his pro day. and he’s long. pretty much i’m just repeating what you’ve already written.

    rams like him too so wouldn’t be surprised to see rams draft him.

    i also wouldn’t mind seeing the rams draft oline in the first round and then getting a guy like armstrong in the third.

    agility numbers and explosion not quite on par with the guys you mention but he’s got good length. almost 35″ arms. had a down senior year but also played out of position.

    • This reply was modified 6 years, 9 months ago by Avatar photoInvaderRam.
    #84427
    JackPMiller
    Participant

    Josh Sweat I have graded as a late 2nd to early 4th round pick.

    #84483
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    thinking about tight ends right now cuz by now i think it’s obvious that the rams are looking at tight ends. and mcvay loves tight ends.

    i was lurking over at the herd and saw this name – ian thomas.

    intriguing because he was interviewed by the rams at the senior bowl.

    in terms of just measurables, he’s very intriguing.

    6’4″ 259 pounds
    34 1/8″ arms
    11 1/2″ hands (that’s right. 11 1/2″!!!)
    40 – 4.74 seconds
    vertical – 36″
    broad – 123″
    3-cone – 7.15
    short shuttle – 4.20

    those are really good numbers. not great. but for his size. very good. plus you take into account his length which is great. and his enormous hands.

    i’d be pretty satisfied if they picked him.

    here’s a video i found on him.

    #84490
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    thinking about it more. if kolton miller is gone by number 23. rams should trade back and grab him.

    i definitely think the rams need to add a weapon on offense. i think tight end makes the most sense.

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