Do you need high picks to build a winner?

wv wrote:

One man’s view
of drafting.

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max

The Pats have had only 1 top 10 pick in the past 13 years. They drafted Jerod Mayo #10 overall in 2008.

Yet, there they sit with the best record in the NFL and favorites to win the SB this season….

On the rare occasions when there’s an Andrew Luck in the draft, sure it makes sense to tank. That would be once every 20 or so and you’d have to have a shot at the #1 overall pick.

Otherwise, all the talk about tanking games at the end of the season is ignorant. The idea that there are only a select group of “blue chip” prospects (whatever the media thinks that is) is a joke.

In 2012, there were reportedly 6 blue chip guys. Luck, RG3, Richardson, Kalil, Blackomon, Claiborne. So how did that work out? Outside of Luck, not one of them would be drafted in the first round if there was a redraft.

I remember back in 2005, there were many people who admonished the Rams for beating the Niners and losing out on one of the blue chip guys. Good old Bernie chastised the Rams for missing out on Michael Huff because of that meaningless win. So how’d that turn out?

This is why Belichick advised his friend Dimitroff, the Falcons GM not to traded away the farm for Julio Jones. Julio is great, but the Falcons are a mess almost everywhere else. Imagine if Juiio was a bust? Not hard to imagine really. Just look at Washington and RG3.

Moral of the story….

Don’t trade away the farm to move up for any player (forget about getting a Luck, nobody is trading him away).

Don’t worry about not being high enough in the draft to get one of the “blue chip” players. History shows that’s a sham.

Whether the Rams draft 11 or 19, it makes no difference to me. Winning the next 2 games is much more important.
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I think that’s one of them there “go find one big recent example and then generalize all over the place” arguments.

Like, should you spend a high pick on a qb? Look at Kurt Warner.

What NE teaches me is, hire the best coach in football and keep him in place for more than a decade. YOu will win a lot of regular season games that way. Meanwhile, they are always among the 2-3 teams with the best record and favorites to win the superbowl. Heck in 2010 they were 14-2 and lost to the Jets in the playoffs.

But then off the top of my head I think of all those high picks the 70s Steelers had, plus the 90s Cowboys. Then closer to home….the Rams, with picks like Pace and Holt, which were top 10 picks.

So…what’s the generalization?

There’s lots of ways to do it.

I DO know that you don’t get a Greg Robinson picking below 10.

I do believe that you always play to win, and let the chips fall where they may in the draft. Because, you can find a Donald at No. 13 some years. (Or, you can pick Jimmy Kennedy in that range, too.) Depends on how well you can assess players overall. A lot of times, there is very little separating the No. 10 and 20 player. How often, when they play the “redraft” game do you see high picks way out of the first round? And, picks in the low 1st and 2nd rounds being rated at the top of the draft? Drafting is a lot like forecasting the weather. You have to have the training to do it, but a lot still comes down to luck. The conditions are fluid. You’re projecting a college player’s abilities to improve so that they can meet the demands of the NFL. You never know just how good they’ll be.

The way you trade, is that you target guys who you like for your system, and go up a few spots to get him. I don’t have a problem with doing that, unless you’re trading away the farm. I do like that the Rams try to find value at their spots in the draft, and will trade both up and down to try to match value with draft position.