Pre-convention numbers.
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Biden Heads Into Convention With Diminished but Still Sizable Lead
Recent polls show him with an edge of eight to nine percentage points among likely voters.
Aug 17
A wave of new national surveys shows that Joe Biden maintains a significant if slightly diminished lead over Donald J. Trump, leaving him in a stronger position to oust an incumbent president than any challenger heading into his party’s convention in the modern polling era.
On average, Mr. Biden leads by eight to nine percentage points among likely voters. His advantage is perhaps slightly smaller than it was a month ago, when high-quality live-interview telephone surveys routinely showed him with a double-digit lead. But it is still the largest and most persistent national polling lead that any candidate has held in 24 years, since Bill Clinton maintained a double-digit advantage in 1996.
The conventions often introduce a volatile and uncertain period for public polling, as candidates usually gain in the polls after several days in the limelight on national television. Though it’s possible that the virtual nature of this year’s conventions will dampen that effect, this may be the last unbiased measurement of the state of the race until mid-September….
link:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/upshot/polls-2020-election-convention.html