compare these 2 statements about Donald's contract situation

1.

Vincent Bonsignore

from: https://www.ocregister.com/2018/06/05/bonsignore-rams-know-it-will-take-record-setting-money-to-secure-aaron-donald-but-they-hold-all-the-cards/

While it’s a given Donald will reset the market for defensive players, there hasn’t been a top-end deal done on that side of the ball since Von Miller’s 2016 contract with the Broncos. That means dynamics like total value of the contract and immediate and full guarantees – the guide posts and trail markers teams and agents typically follow to bridge one record-breaking deal to the next – are a bit outdated. Setting and agreeing to new ones adds to the difficulty. What we do know is that Donald is almost certain to become the first non-quarterback to eclipse $20 million in annual pay. That would mean topping Miller’s $19,016,667 annual base salary and his $70 million in guarantees.
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There’s been recent speculation within the NFL circles that Donald’s camp is looking beyond just a record-setting defensive contract while trying to lift him into the rarified air of top quarterback money. That would mean somewhere between $23 million and $27 million in annual salary and upward to $80 million to $90 million in guarantees. That would be unprecedented.

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NOTE: VB is known by Rams fans, but this guy probably isn’t. Joel Corry is a former sports agent who writes a regular column on contract issues and sports business for CBS sports.

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2.

Joel Corry

from: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-aaron-rodgers-contract-extension-and-more-unfinished-offseason-business/

It’s been a foregone conclusion that Rams interior defensive lineman Aaron Donald and Raiders edge rusher Khalil Mack, who are scheduled to make $6.892 million and $13.846 million respectively this year on their fifth-year options, would eventually become charter members of the $20 million-per-year non-quarterback club. …

The Raiders and Rams having sticker shock is the likely impediment with deals for the 2014 first-round picks. A modest increase over the current non-quarterback standard, which is Broncos linebacker Von Miller at $19,083,333 per year and $70 million in overall guarantees, may not be enough to end the stalemates. The substantial growth in quarterback salaries over the last year with the non-quarterback market remaining stagnant is a stumbling block. It is my understanding that restoring the traditional financial relationship between the highest-paid quarterback and non-quarterback which has existed under the current CBA is an important consideration to the players’ representatives. This would mean a contract averaging over $23 million per year with $85 million in guarantees where $65 million to $70 million is fully guaranteed at signing is needed in order to recreate the balance. Not surprisingly, there is reluctance to dramatically reset the non-quarterback market.

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COMMENTS

I think these 2 are saying more or less the same thing, but each tilts it somewhat differently.

Corry seems to be saying the Rams are reluctant to get into the 23 M or above range. He puts this on the Rams, who he describes as having sticker shock. (He says the same thing about the Mack situation, and Gruden may have recently confirmed that.) Bonsignore seems to be saying more or less the same thing but he puts it on Donald, implying that Donald is asking too much, or that’s how I read him.

BTW IMO both are wrong about what qb money is. To be strict about it, the last 2nd contracts for starting qbs in the league were around 28 M. Since contracts go up, you can’t measure qb money by what some qbs got BEFORE 2018. I take it that qb money is therefore 28 M. If both Mack and Donald sign contracts in 2018, qb money will go up again to probably 30 M or maybe a bit more. So if AD signs for under 27 M (and I don’t see it even going that high) by the time 2019 is over, whatever the amount is, it will be that much lower than qb money.

Neither one names sources. For VB, it’s “recent speculation within the NFL circles.” Corry says that “It is my understanding that…[issue xyz]… is an important consideration to the players’ representatives.” Notice that the nouns connected to the verbs here are “speculation” and “my understanding.”

I can’t gather from any of that what the Rams are offering or what Donald is asking. But it is probably above 20 M and below 27, if these 2 accounts are to be believed.

All I can really gather from that is that the 2 sides have a gap they’re trying to narrow. It all gets down to what one believes is the market for the best defender in the league in 2018. That’s got to be more than 20 M…but how much more? 25 M? 24 M? 23 M? 22 M? 21 M? Both writers state that a contract in that range for a non-qb would break ground (but IMO would be eclipsed within a couple of years).

If the Rams were offering a lowball amount it would have to be in the 19 M or lower range and there’s no evidence they’re doing that. No one in the press is even suggesting they are doing that. It just looks like a tough negotiation to figure out what amount between 20 M and 27 M works, and how much should be guaranteed.

Donald is going to play this year. There’s little doubt of that. That’s new deal or no new deal. Where it gets tricky is 2019. If he is not signed by then, then the Rams would have to consider using the tag to keep him. The problem is, the tag amount for DTs is a serious lowball compared to AD’s market value (near as we can tell what that is). The tag amount for DTs in 2019 would probably be around 15 M. That’s 5 M less than the generally agreed upon starting point for AD’s contract discussion (20 M). The thing is the tag situation could get messy cause it could easily lead to this: AD just sits out and demands a trade, and if the Rams don’t trade him, they still have the tag amount counting against the cap and don’t have HIM and don’t get anything for him. So I see a trade in that situation as likely, if it even gets to that.

But I figure it will never get that far.