Seattle and the famous ill-fated call…

Seahawks fan reaction thoughout game.

Seattle fans reaction of the game as it plays out……..it is 10 min long, but covers the highs and lows of the game….. ff to the last 2 minutes……. listen to what the fans are chanting right before the final Seahawks offensive play…..

heartbreaker….thankfully no one recorded me after SB 36………..we Ram fans somewhat understand the pain….

Bill Belichick: Criticism of Seahawks play-call “totally out of line”

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/04/bill-belichick-criticism-of-seahawks-play-call-totally-out-of-line/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

While most of the known world has weighed in on Seattle’s late-game play-calling, and the majority of that weight has fallen against them, there is one person objecting.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick himself said the criticism of the second-and-1 slant pass which was intercepted to seal the win for his team was “totally out of line.”

“There has been a lot of criticism that I don’t think is anywhere close to being deserved or founded,” Belichick said on WEEI, via Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com. “That football team is very good, very well-coached, and Pete does a great job.

“Malcolm [Butler] and Brandon [Browner], on that particular play, just made a great play. I think the criticism they’ve gotten for the game is totally out of line and by a lot of people who I don’t think are anywhere near even qualified to be commenting on it.”

Belichick was also gracious to the Seahawks, knowing himself what it’s like to come so close and lose.

“I wouldn’t be able to say enough about Seattle. They’re a great football team, well coached. They deserve so much credit for what they’ve done, and how well they’ve done it,” he said. “I know they are disappointed as we’ve been in that spot a couple times ourselves. So the high that we feel is probably not as high as the low that they feel. But that’s a really good football team.”

Of course, Belichick also benefited from the decision by offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and the Seahawks, so he’s not going to complain, either.

There Was a 3.1% Chance of an Interception

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/02/04/russell-wilson-super-bowl-49-interception-statistical-analysis/

Super Bowl XLIX ended with one of the most incredible plays in NFL history: Malcolm Butler jumping Russell Wilson’s quick slant at the 1-yard line. After the interception, Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell were immediately crucified for the decision to pass instead of run the ball with beast of a running back Marshawn Lynch. Emmitt Smith, Peter King and many others called it some variation of “the worst play call in the history of football.” But was it really? We analyzed the numbers to find out.
The Situation

A refresher: The Seahawks were down four with 26 seconds remaining. Seattle, the most efficient rushing team in the NFL since 2000, faced a second-and-goal. They had one timeout remaining and New England, with three defensive backs on the field, lined up in man-to-man coverage against Seattle’s three-receiver set.
The Logic

In the NFL, with man-to-man coverage, the advantage goes to the offense. After burning two timeouts earlier in the drive, and with only 26 seconds remaining, it was not really feasible for the Seahawks to run the ball three straight plays. If they ran the ball on second down and failed, they would need to call their final timeout. Without a timeout, if they ran and were stopped on third down, it is unlikely they would have time to lineup for a fourth-down attempt. There are massive pileups at the goal line and it takes a while to get unpiled and set up. Obviously, three plays to score the go-ahead touchdown are better than two.

In Defense of Darrell Bevell

They had the right look for the slant to work, the interception that clinched Super Bowl 49 was more a function of Seattle’s limited personnel.
So, it appears the Seahawks would need to throw the ball on either second or third down to ensure three attempts. By throwing on second down and conserving their timeout, the Patriots would still have to play for either the pass or the run on third down. If they ran on second down, the Seahawks would almost surely pass on third down—which simplifies things for Bill Belichick’s defense.

The Execution

Every time I watch the play, I’m more and more convinced it was actually the execution that could have been better, rather than the play call. Ricardo Lockette runs a quick slant behind Jermaine Kearse, who tries (and fails) to set a pick for him. Lockette is certainly open, but Butler makes a tremendous break on the ball, somehow coming up with the interception.

If Wilson throws that ball into Lockette’s chest, like a quarterback is supposed to do on that throw, that’s a touchdown (or, worst case, an incompletion). If Lockette goes in stronger and anticipates the contact—which it appeared he did not—he’s in position for a touchdown as well (or, worst case, an incompletion).

It’s up to the quarterback and the receiver to make sure the defender has to go through the back of the receiver in order to make a play on the slant. While this is not the exact same situation (since they are at the 11-yard line, not the goal line), look where Tom Brady puts this ball on the slant to Brandon LaFell for a touchdown earlier in the game. Also, look at how LaFell has positioned himself between the ball and the corner.
The Stats

Enough qualitative analysis—what do the numbers say? If you recall earlier this year, we wrote about goal-to-go scenarios after the Eagles chose to pass the ball instead of run it at the goal line against the 49ers. Since 2000, teams on the 1-yard line have run the ball 74.0% of the time and were successful 53.9% of the time. Teams passing succeeded 48.3% of the time.

This year, both numbers were significantly higher. Teams ran in 129 touchdowns on 226 attempts (57.1%) and threw 66 touchdowns on 115 attempts (57.4%). But keep in mind, one year of data is still a pretty small sample size. 2013’s touchdown rate was just 49.5%, so there can be dramatic shifts from year to year.

Plenty of Blame to Go Around

A coach’s call has been getting all of the attention, but three Seahawks players deserve their share of wrath for the Super Bowl-losing interception. Here’s what Jermaine Kearse, Ricardo Lockette and Russell Wilson did wrong.
Many are citing the fact that this was the first interception on the goal line all year. Historically, though, interceptions occur on 3.1% of passing plays from the 1-yard line. The biggest difference between rushing and passing on the goal line is the potential for bad outcomes. Large rushing losses are not common on dive plays, only fumbles. With a pass play, there are interceptions, sacks, and fumbles. Since 2000, sacks occurred on 4.4% of pass plays from the 1. Fumbles (both lost and recovered by the offense) occurred on 3.1% of rushing plays and 1.0% of pass plays (about half of those resulted in turnovers).

Our internal efficiency metric at numberFire.com, Net Expected Points (NEP) tells us that rushing plays at the 1 average +0.15 NEP per attempt, while pass plays lose -0.05 per drop back. That’s a one-point difference for every five plays.

These league-wide baselines are a great starting point, but unfortunately, they do not take into account the specific teams playing, score differential, time remaining, or personnel groupings.

In 2014, the Patriots faced seven plays at the goal line (six rush, one pass). They surrendered six touchdowns (five on rushes, one through the air). The Seahawks ran nine plays from the goal line, running the ball seven times (scoring just three times, 42.9%) and throwing twice (scoring once). These sample sizes are clearly far too small to draw any conclusions.

Last, let’s look at the specific situation: down by four to eight points (one possession but more than a field goal) with under one minute remaining. Since 2000, there are 73 such situations with a success rate of just 42.5%—dramatically lower than the rest of the game. Passes converted 48.5% of the time and rushes a measly 37.5% on 40 attempts. This is, of course, another small sample size issue and there is a slight sample bias in that the trailing team will typically be the less-efficient team. If we look at all trailing teams, that expands the sample to 153 plays: 41.1% pass success, 43.0% run success. It’s also worth noting that the pass-to-run ratio is much closer to 50-50 in these end-of-game situations.

In short-yardage situations, running the ball is generally the better option. But, teams cannot run the ball every time, as there is a huge element of game theory in play calling. Offenses try to capitalize and increase their odds with specific matchups (like man-to-man coverage).

There does appear to be a decline in conversion rates in these high-stress situations, when quick but critical judgments need to be made. We would need more data, though, to truly verify this theory.

The Seahawks probably should have run the ball—although that’s much easier to say with hindsight on our side. Conversion rates are higher and thus, the Seahawks chances of winning would be higher, we estimate by about 5.6%. But, was the decision to throw the ball the worst play call in history? Not even close.

If the Seahawks score there, no one thinks twice about the decision. Instead, Belichick would be ridiculed for the blatant mistake of not taking his timeouts once the Seahawks were in a goal-to-go scenario. But the interception happened, so it’s Carroll taking the heat.

zn wrote:

Ben Obomanu says some Seattle players believe decision to throw was made to get Russell Wilson Super Bowl MVP

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/20/ben-obomanu-says-some-seattle-players-believe-decision-to-throw-was-made-to-get-russell-wilson-super-bowl-mvp/

Conspiracy theories are fun right?

No matter how silly they may sound, there is something about believing in nefarious circumstances in an otherwise simple situation that captures the imagination.

However, the belief in such theories can be just as strong and real despite what actually occurred. With some members of the Seattle Seahawks, that could be the case in regards to the fateful decision to throw at the goal line at the end of Super Bowl XLIX.

Former Seahawks receiver Ben Obomanu joined Brian Abker of Sports Rado 950 KJR in Seattle on Wednesday and said he’s heard from current players on the team that believe the decision to throw on second-and-goal at the 1-yard line was rooted in a desire by the coaching staff to make Russell Wilson the MVP instead of running back Marshawn Lynch.

“I’ve heard a couple people express that sentiment,” Obomanu said. “A couple players, current players, have expressed that sentiment and I can give them some leeway because I know it’s hard to process and when you take a step back and you take a couple weeks post-game, post the emotions running, you start trying to find questions to ask yourself and when you get back with your parents, your friends, your buddies, all these kind of ideas creeping in. I think though some guys have expressed that same concept of actually believing that the organization in some kind of way was trying to allow Russell Wilson to be the star.

“With the whole thing with Marshawn and interviews and not giving interviews and the MVP conversation and cars and all those things that happen on the field, the guys have expressed ideas of it being easier to handle Russell Wilson accepting those kind of things and having that kind of thrust upon him as opposed to the possibilities that are unknown with Marshawn. I don’t know if guys actually believe it. I don’t know if they’re hearing it from family and friends but that’s one, I don’t know if you guys have heard it, but that’s one of the craziest kind of things that I’ve heard in my conversations with guys trying to process this whole thing.”

The decision to throw backfired horribly. Wilson was intercepted by Malcolm Butler to seal the victory for the New England Patriots. However, the thought the coaches were trying to do anything outside of winning the game seems pretty ridiculous for many reasons.

For one, the votes for MVP are collected before the end of the game, meaning the outcome of that play may have had very little to do with who won the award if Seattle had won. Also, Lynch got the ball on first down as well. If he isn’t tripped up a yard shy of the goal line, he’s the hero anyway.

Even though the play didn’t work, there is sound logic for throwing the ball on the play. New England had eight defenders near the line of scrimmage with one-on-one matchups on the outside. With one timeout left, throwing on second down would have allowed Seattle to run on both third and fourth down and get the plays off before the end of the game. The problem came in Jermaine Kearse getting jammed brutally by Brandon Browner at the line of scrimmage, which allowed Butler a free break at the pass intended for Ricardo Lockette.

It was the wrong decision to throw a slant and Seattle paid for it, but there is logical reasoning for Seattle to have handled the situation as they did. Pete Carroll and Darrell Bevell just never factored in an interception as a possible outcome of the play they called.

Obomanu said the root issues that players may be struggling with is their desire for Lynch to be back with the team next season and hoping the play-call doesn’t push Lynch toward possibly walking away.

“I think guys are more concerned about having Marshawn back and so I think that’s where that conversation and those ideas stem from is the need and the want to have Marshawn Lynch come back and be an effective player,” Obomanu said. “So they don’t want anything lingering from the Super Bowl to be a determining factor in him retiring or something.”

That part could be very real. Even if there was no intent to make Wilson “the star” over Lynch in that play-call, if Lynch and other players on the team believe there was, it could create just as many trust issues for the players to overcome.

That ‘theory’ is just totally absurd.

For starters a 1 Yard TD or a 1 Yard Run is
not gonna be significant in who gets the MVP.

But aside from that, there is no way Pete C
is gonna be thinking about anything other
than — just score.

w
v

John Madden: Super Bowl call will “torment” Pete Carroll forever

Darin Gantt on May 23, 2015, 9:06 PM EDT

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/23/john-madden-super-bowl-call-will-torment-pete-carroll-forever/

Seahawks Pete Carroll acknowledged after the Super Bowl that he’d always regret the decision to pass at the goal line rather than run.

That’s almost easy to say now, at a time when he’s trying to insulate the coordinator who called the play, and the quarterback who threw the game-losing interception.

But one of the best coaches the game has ever known said the memory won’t get any easier with time.

“That will torment him forever,” Hall of Famer John Madden told Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times. “Winning one game is hard. Getting to the Super Bowl is hard. Then getting that close and losing has to be tough, because we only remember the winners of the Super Bowl.

“One of the biggest gaps in sports is the difference between the winning and losing teams of the Super Bowl. They don’t invite the losing team to the White House. They don’t have parades for them. They don’t throw confetti on them.

“Does it haunt you? Hell yes, it haunts you. I’m still haunted by some championship games.”

Madden’s Raiders lost five conference championship games in seven years, nearly taking the pleasure out of finally winning one.

But he doubts that Carroll having won one will take the sting away from the chance at a second.

As bad as it was it will never hurt as bad as knowing the NFL (through the officials) stole Super Bowl 36 from the Rams to give to the “Patriots” after 9/11.