Big Board: Lack of sizzle doesn't mean this class lacks substance

[Agamemnon]

Big Board: Lack of sizzle doesn’t mean this class lacks substance
by Rob Rang | NFLDraftScout.com Senior Analyst
March 18, 2015 10:57 AM ET

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/big-board

Following the big trade for All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider revealed that his club only had 16 players from the Class of 2015 graded as first-round picks.

Critics might suggest that this is an indication of a weak draft class. It isn’t.

While this class may lack the sizzle at the top of past years, it isn’t a poor crop, overall, and there have been draft classes with far fewer than 16 prospects graded as legitimate “first-round” talent.

Immediate help at key positions — offensive line, pass rusher, running back and receiver — will be available throughout the second day. This could be especially true along the line of scrimmage where nearly half (15) of the 32 prospects I currently grade as second-round prospects play.

Below are my personal rankings of the top 64 prospects available in the 2015 draft.

1. Jameis Winston, QB, 6-4, 231, 4.97, rSo, Florida State: Winston’s off-field issues are certainly a concern. There is no denying his talent or the importance of the quarterback position in today’s NFL. Winston possesses a prototypical combination of physical traits necessary for success in the NFL, including the size, functional mobility, arm strength and accuracy. Better yet, he enhances these tools with awareness, on-field composure and natural leadership skills. Barring a meltdown over the next two months, Winston will be the Tampa Bay Bucs’ choice with the No. 1 overall selection.

2. Leonard Williams, DT, 6-5, 302, 4.97, Jr, Southern Cal: Strong, athletic and passionate, the Trojans’ star is earning comparisons to everyone from Houston Texans’ defensive end J.J. Watt to Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Gerald McCoy for his ability to dominate the line of scrimmage while alternating between defensive tackle and defensive end. He’s too quick for guards and too strong for tackles, wreaking havoc along the line of scrimmage against the run and pass.

3. Dante Fowler Jr., DE, 6-3, 261, 4.60, Jr, Florida: A talented pass rusher with experience at outside linebacker and all over the defensive line, Fowler is an intriguing athlete with range, strength and flexibility. He isn’t as explosive off the snap or productive as some of the other pass rushers but is the most pro-ready.

4. Marcus Mariota, QB, 6-4, 222, 4.52, rJr, Oregon: As one of the few in the media who attended both Mariota’s throwing session at the combine and his Pro Day workout, I can tell you that there were gains made in his accuracy while dropping back from center — critical to success in a pro-style offense. Mariota is a work in progress but he offers a rare combination of physical talent and work ethic.
Todd Gurley has the talent, but can he convince teams he’ll be healthy? (USATSI) Todd Gurley has the talent, but can he convince teams he’ll be healthy? (USATSI)

5. Amari Cooper, WR, 6-1, 211, 4.42, Jr, Alabama: Cooper’s production this season looks like something out of a video game. Alabama’s first Biletnikoff Award winner, Cooper shattered Alabama records with 124 receptions for 1,727 yards and 16 touchdowns, including two scores against the Buckeyes in the Sugar Bowl loss. It isn’t just the production in Lane Kiffin’s pro-style scheme that has scouts excited. Cooper is a terrific route-runner whose agility and acceleration make his elusiveness appear almost effortless.

6. Brandon Scherff, OT, 6-5, 319, 5.05, rSr, Iowa: Scherff could just prove the best in the long line of blockers tutored by Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz, which is quite an accomplishment considering that 13 Iowa offensive linemen have been drafted since he took over in 1999. Scherff won big points with scouts for his toughness, battling back from a torn meniscus and corrective surgery on Sept. 8 to start against rival Iowa State five days later. Team doctors want to check his recovery. Scherff is powerful, tough and tenacious, and I see him as one of the “safer” prospects in the draft, though his ultimate position in the NFL could be at right tackle or guard.

7. Danny Shelton, DT, 6-2, 339, 5.64, Sr, Washington: Broad-shouldered, powerful and surprisingly passionate in pursuit, Shelton is a classic two-gap run defender with the gaudy statistics to catch the attention of scouts. He has flashed first-round talent throughout his career but played at a different level as a senior, boosting his stock considerably. Shelton was nearly unstoppable during Senior Bowl practices, cementing his top 10 status.

8. Vic Beasley, OLB, 6-3, 246, 4.53, rSr, Clemson: With pressure on the quarterback priority No. 1 on defense, teams are more willing than ever to trade size for speed at the position. Like recent “undersized” first-round rushers Von Miller, Bruce Irvin, Barkevious Mingo and Dee Ford, Beasley boasts a lightning-quick first-step and the agility to stalk mobile quarterbacks. His combination of speed and strength (35 repetitions of 225 pounds) demonstrated at the combine shows up on tape, as Beasley leaves Clemson as the school’s all-time sacks leader (29).

9. Kevin White, WR, 6-3, 215, 4.35, Sr, West Virginia: No player improved his draft stock more in 2014 than White. It wasn’t just his production (110 catches for 1,447 yards and 10 touchdowns) that is impressing scouts. White’s size, strength and ability to come down with contested grabs is something that every team in the NFL is looking for at the receiver position. While the eye-popping 40-yard dash time at the combine is sure to generate buzz, I didn’t always see this kind of speed from White on tape.

10. Shane Ray, DE, 6-3, 245, 4.54, Jr, Missouri: Ray had to bide his time backing up Michael Sam and Kony Ealy but was dominant as a junior, earning recognition as the conference’s Defensive Lineman of the Week three times while leading the SEC with 14.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss. Unable to work out at the combine due to a lingering foot injury, Ray’s Pro Day (March 19) will be one to watch after fellow top-10 pass rushers impressed in Indianapolis.

11. Landon Collins, SS, 6-0, 228, 4.53, Jr, Alabama: Instinctive, athletic and an explosive hitter, Collins looks the part of a top-10 pick. His downhill-playing style might be best suited to strong safety as he has been fooled deep on occasion this year due to his aggression. Further, scouts are certainly aware of the fact that few of the highly drafted few defensive backs out of Alabama have performed as brilliantly in the NFL as they did for Nick Saban.

12. La’el Collins, OT, 6-4, 305, 5.12, Sr, LSU: Collins doesn’t get the national attention of other tackles in this class, but the big man is surprisingly agile in pass protection and is a mauler in the running game. Collins isn’t an elite athlete and will likely wind up inside at guard or right tackle in the NFL rather than at his customary left tackle position. He has the square build and physical nature to handle the move and saw snaps at left guard in Mobile.

13. DeVante Parker, WR, 6-3, 209, 4.45, Sr, Louisville: A broken left foot sidelined Parker for the first seven games of the 2014 season, but he returned with a vengeance, averaging seven receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown in his six games, including a Belk Bowl loss to Georgia. Parker can win with his height and ability to high-point passes. He also has impressive fluidity and acceleration for a receiver of his size.

14. Randy Gregory, DE, 6-5, 235, Jr, 4.64, Nebraska: Attacking off the edge out of the two- or three-point stance, Gregory has proven to be a natural pass rusher with an explosive get-off, flexibility, long arms and active hands and the tenacious style of play (including against the run) that will endear him to coaches. Though he showed terrific agility during drills to project nicely as a 3-4 rush linebacker, his thin frame is one of several concerns scouts have about Gregory. He wasn’t as effective a year ago as he was in 2013 and raised more questions than answers during interviews with teams at the combine.

15. Ereck Flowers, OT, 6-6, 329, 5.31, Jr, Miami (Fla.): Flowers played left tackle at Miami but may need to move to the right side in the NFL. Despite his massive frame, Flowers is light on his feet and balanced in pass protection. He is aggressive and active as a run blocker, including looking for defenders in pursuit — offering precisely the type of “nastiness” scouts prefer.
These are Rang’s top 15.

• This topic was modified 9 years, 9 months ago by Agamemnon.

Agamemnon

[wv]

I’m always pretty skeptical/wary/dismissive
of grand pronoucements about an entire draft-class,
before the class has actually played a coupla years.

Ya know.

There will be plenty of stars sprinkled through
the first five rounds — as per usual.

Can Snisher find some of them? Can
they find another EJ Gaines?
It sure looks like Seattle knows
how to find players in the later
rounds.

The players are out there.
Every year.

w
v

• This reply was modified 9 years, 9 months ago by wv.

[zn]

wv wrote:

Can Snisher find some of them? Can
they find another EJ Gaines?

I personally am not skeptical of those claims. In fact over the years they have held up. For example last year’s draft was said in advance to be one of the deepest in years. And sure enough that’s the draft they find a Gaines in round 6.

[Agamemnon]

I you drop the top 8 or 10 players from last years class and drop the players from rounds 5 and 6 of last years class you have sort of a picture of this year’s class. It is not terribly bad, but in no way is it close to last year and probably slightly down from an average draft class. imo

That is the general consensus of this years class. Remember Snead saying that this is why it was such a good deal to get Barron last year for a couple of this classes draft picks.

• This reply was modified 9 years, 9 months ago by Agamemnon.
• This reply was modified 9 years, 9 months ago by Agamemnon.

Agamemnon

[wv]

zn wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>wv wrote:</div>
Can Snisher find some of them? Can
they find another EJ Gaines?

I personally am not skeptical of those claims. In fact over the years they have held up. For example last year’s draft was said in advance to be one of the deepest in years. And sure enough that’s the draft they find a Gaines in round 6.

What evidence do you have that last years draft class
was “one of the deepest in years” ?

It would take all kinds of research to
compare every year’s results to the “consensus claims”
about those years…

And you have not done that research.

Ha.

I have run circles around you,
logically.

w
v

[Agamemnon]

What made last year’s class was the record number of third year players that entered the draft. Of course, that depleted the talent in this years class.

Agamemnon

[zn]

wv wrote:

What evidence do you have that last years draft class
was “one of the deepest in years” ?

Agamemnon wrote:

What made last year’s class was the record number of third year players that entered the draft. Of course, that depleted the talent in this years class.

Ag answers it. It’s the number of highly graded players that enter.

That does not mean that every single player will pan out as predicted.

But I have never seen it work this way–analysts say this IS a deep draft, taken as a whole, then it turns out it wasn’t. Or analysts say this ISN’T a deep draft, taken as a whole, and then it turns out it was.

Those claims about an entire draft class have a far lower burden of proof than for making predictions on individual players, one at a time.

The entire time I paid attention to the draft, if analysts say there is more highly-graded talent taken together om this one than in most drafts, I have never seen it turn out not to be true.

[wv]

Agamemnon wrote:

you drop the top 8 or 10 players from last years class and drop the players from rounds 5 and 6 of last years class you have sort of a picture of this year’s class. It is not terribly bad, but in no way is it close to last year and probably slightly down from an average draft class.

That is the general consensus of this years class. Remember Snead saying that this is why it was such a good deal to get Barron last year for a couple of this classes draft picks.

That is indeed what the draft-watchers are ‘saying.’
Now how do you know its true? We wont have
any idea for two or three years, right?

How do you know there wont be MORE
gems found in rounds 4, 5, and 6
THIS year than in the last few years?

w
v

[wv]

zn wrote:

The entire time I paid attention to the draft, if analysts say there is more highly-graded talent taken together om this one than in most drafts, I have never seen it turn out not to be true.

Yeah, but you haven’t actually ‘done the work’
== the research work — necessary to know
whether or not “it turned out to be true or not true.” == yes?
I mean who in the world HAS done that kind of research. Nobody,
except for maybe a handful of algebra-metrics nerds.

I mean where is the actual EVIDENCE that this or that
broad-general-pre-draft-claims have held up?

Most folks only ‘really’ know about a few draft-class
histories where a handful of QBs panned out.

w
v

• This reply was modified 9 years, 9 months ago by wv.

[Agamemnon]

wv wrote:

That is indeed what the draft-watchers are ‘saying.’
Now how do you know its true? We wont have
any idea for two or three years, right?

How do you know there wont be MORE
gems found in rounds 4, 5, and 6
THIS year than in the last few years?

w
v

I can look at a pile of beans and say this pile is bigger than that pile without counting them. If you need an actual count, I can’t satisfy you.

Agamemnon

[wv]

Agamemnon wrote:

That is indeed what the draft-watchers are ‘saying.’
Now how do you know its true? We wont have
any idea for two or three years, right?

How do you know there wont be MORE
gems found in rounds 4, 5, and 6
THIS year than in the last few years?

w
v

I can look at a pile of beans and say this pile is bigger than that pile without counting them. If you need an actual count, I can’t satisfy you.</span>

Well, noting that this or that class has more “third year” players
doesnt really tell you if more players from that draft class
ended up as quality starters or quality role players. Yes?

It just tells you that more third year boys entered the draft.

So, how would one go about researching which draft classes
were actually better than others? How would one do that?
And has anyone around here actually done it?
I would guess the answer is — no. 🙂

[Agamemnon]

wv wrote:

I would guess the answer is — no.

What are you? Some kind of lawyer. 😉

Agamemnon

[zn]

wv wrote:

Well, noting that this or that class has more “third year” players
doesnt really tell you if more players from that draft class
ended up as quality starters or quality role players.

You are using criteria that works for assessing individual player predictions.

That doesn’t work for whole draft classes.

In fact I remember when I first heard this–it was about the 83 draft, in advance of the 83 draft. Before that draft, the usual types were saying this was the deepest draft they had seen since 75. And, yeah…sure enough. (That’s the draft where the last 2 picks of the 1st round were Marino and Darrell Green).

That doesn’t mean those same analysts were right in advance about the prospects of any given individual player in that draft.

Can I prove the general point to you statistically? No. I am also content if you don’t believe it, too. However, as Ag points out, Snead has already indicated how he feels. They say they traded for Barron because they didn’t mind losing picks this year, given the quality of this year’s draft.

.

[Herzog]

I have a Real bad feeling about this years draft.

[zn]

Herzog wrote:

I have a Real bad feeling about this years draft.

They say it’s deep at a couple of positions including guard.

Okay.

Fine with me.

[Agamemnon]

Herzog wrote:

I have a Real bad feeling about this years draft.

Add Barron to this years draft. It looks better then. Almost like have 2 number 1s. I expect us to come out of this draft with one good player, 2 quality starters,and 1 quality backup.

• This reply was modified 9 years, 9 months ago by Agamemnon.

Agamemnon

[Agamemnon]

Mock draft 4.0: Bears look to future at QB
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/mock-drafts/daniel-jeremiah/245602
By Daniel Jeremiah |

NFL Media analyst

Published: March 18, 2015 at 02:17 p.m.
» Previous Jeremiah mock drafts: Jan. 14 | Feb. 18 | Feb. 25

Pick No.
1
TB
Jameis Winston
QB
Florida St.

Winston is the top quarterback in this draft class, and he can be the long-term solution at the position for the Buccaneers.
Pick No.
2
TEN
Leonard Williams
DE
USC

The Titans addressed edge rusher in free agency, and Williams can be a dominant interior presence.
Pick No.
3
JAC
Dante Fowler, Jr.
OLB
Florida

Fowler is versatile, explosive and physical. He would be a great addition to Gus Bradley’s defense.
Pick No.
4
OAK
Amari Cooper
WR
Alabama

The Raiders failed to land an impact wide receiver in free agency, but they will get a big-time weapon with this selection. Cooper will be an immediate go-to guy on third down.
Pick No.
5
WAS
Randy Gregory
OLB
Nebraska

Gregory would be an excellent replacement for Brian Orakpo.
Pick No.
6
NYJ
Shane Ray
DE
Missouri

The Jets aggressively addressed the secondary in free agency, but there is still a need for a dynamic edge-rushing presence.
Pick No.
7
CHI
Marcus Mariota
QB
Oregon

The Bears have a new general manager and a new coach. Oftentimes, that means a new quarterback is on the way. It’s time to rebuild in Chicago.
Pick No.
8
ATL
Vic Beasley
OLB
Clemson

Dan Quinn needs an explosive edge rusher and Beasley fits the description.
Pick No.
9
NYG
Brandon Scherff
OG
Iowa

This is a little too high for my taste, but the Giants love to upgrade the trenches with their high draft picks.
Pick No.
10
STL
Kevin White
WR
West Virginia

I know Tavon Austin hasn’t worked out as well as the Rams would’ve hoped, but that shouldn’t discourage the selection on another West Virginia wideout.

Agamemnon

[rfl]

Agamemnon wrote:

6. Brandon Scherff, OT, 6-5, 319, 5.05, rSr, Iowa: Scherff could just prove the best in the long line of blockers tutored by Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz, which is quite an accomplishment considering that 13 Iowa offensive linemen have been drafted since he took over in 1999. Scherff won big points with scouts for his toughness, battling back from a torn meniscus and corrective surgery on Sept. 8 to start against rival Iowa State five days later. Team doctors want to check his recovery. Scherff is powerful, tough and tenacious, and I see him as one of the “safer” prospects in the draft, though his ultimate position in the NFL could be at right tackle or guard.

12. La’el Collins, OT, 6-4, 305, 5.12, Sr, LSU: Collins doesn’t get the national attention of other tackles in this class, but the big man is surprisingly agile in pass protection and is a mauler in the running game. Collins isn’t an elite athlete and will likely wind up inside at guard or right tackle in the NFL rather than at his customary left tackle position. He has the square build and physical nature to handle the move and saw snaps at left guard in Mobile.

15. Ereck Flowers, OT, 6-6, 329, 5.31, Jr, Miami (Fla.): Flowers played left tackle at Miami but may need to move to the right side in the NFL. Despite his massive frame, Flowers is light on his feet and balanced in pass protection. He is aggressive and active as a run blocker, including looking for defenders in pursuit — offering precisely the type of “nastiness” scouts prefer.
These are Rang’s top 15.

I figure we need AT LEAST one of the top OL prospects.

#12 or #15 sound fine to move inside at OG. (I figure Scherf will be gone.)

Then I want Hundley or Grayson.

Don’t care which round we get any of these guys. But we really need a quality OG/OT and probably EITHER Hundley or Grayson.

If we signed Joe B. and Wisnewski and drafted the above pair, I’d be happy with the off-season.

By virtue of the absurd ...

[Agamemnon]

I would be happy with that, even though that isn’t my exact plan. 😉

Agamemnon

[Hram]

I really do not think Huntley is going to make a good NFL quarterback. I watched a bunch of his games this year and he just does not seem to have it. He is athletic but I believe he lacks patience, speed of processing information and accuracy.

I do not know anything about Grayson.

• This reply was modified 9 years, 9 months ago by Hram.

[Agamemnon]

Baylor QB Bryce Petty has predraft visit scheduled for St. Louis per @alexmarvez. (Also Chargers and Cowboys.)

— Jim Thomas (@jthom1) March 19, 2015

Agamemnon

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