article from August 2013 – John Clayton ranks qbs

NFL starting QB rankings, 1-32

originally Published: August 29, 2013
By John Clayton | ESPN.com

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9592180/nfl-quarterback-rankings-john-clayton-reveals-2013-hierarchy-part-1

THE ELITE

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Analysis: The highest-paid quarterback in the NFL at $22 million a year has to do more to keep the Packers atop the NFC North. Gone are Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, who helped him when he took over for Brett Favre. An improved running attack will make his job a little easier.

Arrow is pointing: up

2. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Analysis: He’s back. Four neck operations didn’t slow down Manning, who took his fast-paced, no-huddle offense to the Mile High City and won 13 games. Many consider the Broncos the favorite to win the AFC’s No. 1 seed, and much of that optimism is based on Manning. The damaged nerve in his neck has had an extra year to heal. He’s gaining more velocity and depth to his throws. Adding Wes Welker in the slot will make him that much more dangerous.

Arrow is pointing: up

3. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Analysis: I feel a little guilty putting Manning above Brady this year. Watching Brady in the preseason and practices has been a treat. He’s on fire. The ball rarely hits the ground. The amazing part is Brady is throwing mostly to three rookie receivers and an undrafted tight end. But I picked Manning over Brady because I think the Broncos have a better chance of having home-field advantage, which would give Manning an edge over Brady in a playoff game.

Arrow is pointing: up

4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Analysis: The return of Sean Payton should fix some of the offense’s mistakes last year. Without Payton’s play calling, Brees had 19 interceptions and the Saints got away from the run a little too much. Still, Brees threw for 5,177 yards and 43 touchdowns, incredible numbers. Payton’s fine-tuning should produce more wins for the Saints and Brees.

Arrow is pointing: up

5. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Analysis: Despite a minor knee operation, Roethlisberger reported to training camp in incredible shape. But for the Steelers to get back to the playoffs, he is going to have to carry the team. He lost a deep threat with Mike Wallace’s departure to Miami. Tight end Heath Miller is coming off a knee reconstruction, and the Steelers’ best running back, Le’Veon Bell, has a foot injury.

Arrow is pointing: up

6. Eli Manning, New York Giants

Analysis: Eli missed the 4,000-yard mark for the first time in four years, but he missed by only 52 yards. That was understandable. Hakeem Nicks battled injuries all season, so Manning lost his No. 1 receiver. Nicks should do better this year, and so should Manning. Still, the Giants have to be worried about the offensive line, which is fighting age and injuries.

Arrow is pointing: up

7. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Analysis: Ryan was one completion away from beating the San Francisco 49ers and going to the Super Bowl. He was rewarded with a $20.6 million a year contract and the return of tight end Tony Gonzalez. He finally got his first playoff win, which takes a lot of pressure off him. His offense is loaded with weapons, and this could be the Falcons’ year to go to the Super Bowl.

Arrow is pointing: up

8. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Analysis: Flacco gambled and won. Instead of taking less than $18 million a year on a contract extension, Flacco bet on himself and came up big. The Ravens won the Super Bowl and paid him $20.1 million a year. But Flacco has problems. He lost 50 percent of his touchdown targets — Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin. He has a big question mark at the No. 2 receiver position. He faces a tough challenge.

Arrow is pointing: flat

9. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Analysis: Once again, Romo is in a tough spot. He does more and more each year to carry the team, but no matter what he does, it hasn’t made the Cowboys better than 8-8 the past two years. They haven’t been to the playoffs since 2009. Over the past two years, he’s completing more than 65 percent of his passes. Last year, he threw for 4,903 yards. Yet all critics want to do is bash Romo, particularly now that he’s making $18 million a year.

Arrow is pointing: flat

10. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

Analysis: The Texans are paying him $15.5 million a year, so they must think he’s elite. Schaub may not be flashy, but he’s good. And now that he’s staying reasonably healthy, he is giving the Texans a shot at the playoffs every year. When he’s right, he’ll complete 64 to 69 percent of his passes. He has had three 4,000-plus-yard seasons in the past four years. He’s doing something right.

Arrow is pointing: up

11. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers

Analysis: Whether it’s Rivers or the roster around him, the Chargers’ offense seems to going down the wrong river. Last year his yards-per-completion average dropped from 7.9 to 6.8. His 66 percent completion-rate days are diminishing. He has thrown 53 touchdown passes over the past two years. But his offensive line has gotten worse, and we really don’t know if he has enough good pass-catchers. Mike McCoy was hired to allow Rivers the chance to throw shorter, quicker passes.

Arrow is pointing: down

12. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

Analysis: His numbers are incredible. Over the past two years, he has thrown for more than 10,000 yards. But this year will determine whether he can stay elite. He went 0-4 in games against .500 teams or better on the road. To stay elite, Stafford needs some road wins against winning teams. Despite a 4,967-yard season last year, the Lions went from 10-6 to 4-12. He earned a $17.75 million-a-year contract extension, but he’ll need to win more to stay in this category.

Arrow is pointing: flat

CHAD PENNINGTON DIVISION

13. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

Analysis: The Chad Pennington Division is for the quarterbacks good enough to get their teams into the playoffs but dependent on the talent around them to win playoff games. It’s probably unfair to put the next four or five quarterbacks in this category because they have elite potential. Luck heads the list of elite quarterbacks on the horizon. Watch for his completion percentage jump into the 60 percent range now that new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton is calling for shorter, safer completions. Luck can do it all, living up to the billing that he’s the best quarterback to enter the NFL in decades.

Arrow is pointing: up

14. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Analysis: It’s not the size of the quarterback; it’s the quality. Wilson overcame being 5-foot-10 5/8 to become an instant star. He has the hands of a 6-7 athlete and the mind of a 10-year veteran. His arrival has put the Seahawks on the Super Bowl map. Because he works and studies so hard, he should avoid any sophomore slump.

Arrow is pointing: up

15. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers

Analysis: After 10 games, including three in the playoffs, Kaepernick is getting reviews nationally that haven’t been heard in San Francisco since the days of Joe Montana and Steve Young. It’s a little surprising that Jim Harbaugh has limited Kaepernick’s playing time in the preseason because he is inexperienced compared to the other top quarterbacks. What could hold him back is an unsettled receiving corps. Still, he has big-time talent and should be elite next year.

Arrow is pointing: up

16. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins

Analysis: Will he be a different quarterback coming off knee reconstruction, at least temporarily? RG III’s game is beating opponents with his arm and his feet. Wisely, the Redskins aren’t using him in the preseason, but he will enter the regular season without having had any live action on the field. Carson Palmer, Tom Brady and others have proved they can come back from knee reconstructions, but it might be a little tougher for a running quarterback.

Arrow is pointing: flat

17. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Analysis: Newton never got credit for playing better in the second half of last season when the offense started to click. In fact, Newton doesn’t get the credit he deserves for his first two years. Throwing for close to 8,000 yards in two years can’t be taken lightly. And his running scares defenses. If he can provide a little more leadership, Newton can take this franchise closer to the playoffs.

Arrow is pointing: up

18. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

Analysis: Smith has done his best when he’s had proper coaching. Norv Turner gave him respectable play calling for one year when Turner was an offensive coordinator in San Francisco. Smith flourished under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. Linking up with Andy Reid and the West Coast offense could produce a potential wild-card season for the Chiefs. Reid will exploit Smith’s quick passing ability out of three- and five-step drops.

Arrow is pointing: up

19. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals

Analysis: Dalton is much like Pennington, the former Jets quarterback who made trips to the playoffs when the talent around him was good. The Bengals are loaded at wide receiver and tight end. They have made two trips to the playoffs with Dalton behind center. His next mission is to win a playoff game or two. Offensive coordinator Jay Gruden is working to improve Dalton’s deep accuracy.

Arrow is pointing: up

20. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams

Analysis: Since coming into the NFL, Bradford has been starved for receiving talent. Not anymore. Chris Givens is developing into a playmaker. Jared Cook will add a big-play threat at tight end. Tavon Austin will be Bradford’s Percy Harvin. Bradford has elite ability and could make a big jump this year.

Arrow is pointing: up

21. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

Analysis: It’s decision time for the Bears. Marc Trestman was hired from the CFL to get the most out of Cutler, who is one of the biggest enigmas in the NFL. Under Mike Shanahan, Cutler was elite, throwing for 4,526 yards in 2008. He hasn’t come close to those numbers in Chicago, and now he’s entering a contract year. A big season could result in an $18 million-plus-a-year contract.

Arrow is pointing: flat

22. Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings

Analysis: The Vikings made the playoffs with Ponder behind center, but so much of the success stemmed from the running of Adrian Peterson and a decent defense. Ponder can manage the game, but he needs to get the ball downfield better. His yards-per-attempt dropped from 6.4 to 6.1 last year, despite winning 10 games. Peterson averaged 6 yards per carry with his feet.

Arrow is pointing: flat

23. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Analysis: Like Cutler, Freeman is in a contract year, but you get the feeling he has less of a chance of staying in Tampa Bay than Cutler has of staying in Chicago. The coaching staff wants him to be more of a vocal leader. He’s good enough to throw for 27 touchdowns, but his completion percentage dropped to 54.8 last year. That’s baffling. He’s too talented to be regressing at this stage of his career.

Arrow is pointing: down

24. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals

Analysis: The trade from Oakland to Arizona could revive Palmer’s career. Bruce Arians is the perfect coach for Palmer. Arians loves tall quarterbacks who can throw the ball deep. As long as Palmer stays healthy, he should throw for 4,000 yards and the Cardinals should make a big jump in the NFC West.

Arrow is pointing: up

25. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles

Analysis: In a fast-paced offense designed to have 80 plays a game, Vick could put up some crazy numbers. Even though he’s 33, Vick still has the running and throwing skills to make Chip Kelly’s offense work. His only downsides are turnovers and injuries. If he’s healthy, this offense should easily post 400-yard games each week.

Arrow is pointing: up

26. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

Analysis: The additions of Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson should improve his numbers on third down, and Tannehill should be better getting the ball downfield. Losing Dustin Keller at tight end, though, will hurt. Teams need a 50-catch tight end to make the playoffs. His season-ending knee injury creates a void.

Arrow is pointing: up

HIT-OR-MISS DIVISION

27. Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns

Analysis: His best gift this offseason was getting Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator. Weeden is an accurate pocket passer with a good arm. Last year, he worked three-step drops that caused his passes to be deflected at the line of scrimmage. Turner will work Weeden in more five- and seven-step drops that will improve his play.

Arrow is pointing: up

28. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans

Analysis: Mike Munchak improved the offensive line and plans to go to more of a running offense. That fits Locker’s ability, but it’s debatable how efficient he can be running an offense. He completed 56.4 percent of his passes last year. Some look at him as a Mark Sanchez type who can win if the talent around him is good and the defense is equally good. The pressure is on him to show improvement this year.

Arrow is pointing: flat

29. Matt Flynn, Oakland Raiders

Analysis: The trade to the Raiders finally gives him the chance to start. The bad news is that he is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines seen in years. Things got so bad last week he may have played himself out of a starting job. He opened the door for Terrelle Pryor to start because of Pryor’s mobility.

Arrow is pointing: down

30. Kevin Kolb, Buffalo Bills

Analysis: Things have gone so poorly for Kolb that he was sacked by a rubber mat and lost eight days of work with a knee injury. Now, his career is uncertain because of a concussion. What gives the Bills hope is EJ Manuel looks like a potential star because of mobility and a big arm. All Manuel has to do is recover from a knee procedure and be ready for the opener.

Arrow is pointing: down

31. Mark Sanchez, New York Jets

Analysis: It’s been quite a painful ride for Sanchez. He went to two conference championship games in his first two years in the league. A $8.25 million guaranteed salary is the main reason he’s still with the Jets. It’s only a matter of time before Geno Smith wrestles the starting job away from him, and next year Sanchez won’t be a Jet. A shoulder injury suffered in the preseason game against the Giants adds to Sanchez’s misery.

Arrow is pointing: down

32. Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars

Analysis: Maybe there is hope for Gabbert. After two years of poor play, Gabbert showed a better ability to move the ball in his first two preseason games. That allowed him to legitimately beat out Chad Henne for the starting job. He got rid of the ball quicker and was more efficient throwing downfield.

Arrow is pointing: up